Bombardier Inc
TSX:BBD.B
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Bombardier Inc
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Bombardier Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the discussion over to Mr. Francis Richer de La Fleche , Vice President, Investor Relations for Bombardier. Please go ahead, Mr. Richer de La Fleche.
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Bombardier's earnings call for the second quarter ended June 30, 2021. I wish to remind you that during the course of this call, we may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the financial performance of the corporation.There are risks that actual events or results may differ materially from these statements. For additional information on forward-looking statements and underlying assumptions, please refer to the MD&A. I'm making this cautionary statement on behalf of each speaker on this call. With me today is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Eric Martel; and our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Bart Demosky, to review our operations and financial results for the second quarter of 2021. I would now like to turn over the discussion to Eric.
Thank you, Francis. [Foreign Language] Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We certainly have a lot to cover today, and we are excited to share our progress. In a few moments, Bart will provide more detail about the improved guidance we issued earlier this morning and talk about our proactive debt management action.But first and foremost, I am proud to share that the second quarter was exceptional on all front. I want to particularly highlight the $91 million in free cash flow the business generated. Besides the fact it's an improvement of more than $840 million year-over-year, it's a window into the longer-term potential of our business as we continue to drive our strategic plan, grow earnings and reduce interest costs.So year-over-year, Q2 can be summarized simply as much better: Better revenue, better profitability, better cash generation, better service revenue and perhaps, most importantly, better aircraft sales. Reaching an in-core book-to-bill of 1.8 on units is something we haven't seen in a few years.I've had activity within all our customer segments to achieve this. Demand in North America with traditional customer is strong. We are also very engaged with our fleet customers who are seeing new customers of their own. And finally, we are very active on the specialized aircraft front. I've kept a close eye on rebuilding backlog across our portfolio. It is the foundation to predictable success, just as much as the better cost base we are creating through our work on the Global 7500 learning curve and our target for $400 million in recurring savings by 2023. I am very proud of the team's performance, resilience and engagement in weathering the storm throughout the pandemic.The market now is certainly starting to give us tailwind. I'll speak to this in a few moments because there is room for optimism, but our plan, as we mentioned at Investor Day, is designed to perform without extra market boost. We will continue to focus on being predictable and disciplined in our operations.That said, the market landscape has maintained an upward trend to -- we noted when we last spoke. Macroeconomic indicators continue to point to favorable conditions. In certain cases, the trends have evolved into strong rebounds. We have seen a strong rebound in business flying, but border restrictions are still in place between key country pairs that larger aircraft typically connect. There is still room for activity to improve in markets like Asia. All signs point to further potential in business aircraft utilization as we progress through the next few months.At this stage, though, it's important we continue to maintain a prudent approach and focus on what we control. We do, however, have increased confidence both in our plan and the market's availability to sustain this momentum. We are confident in our path to deliver approximately 120 aircraft as well as higher margin than planned this year. This stems from our all-around solid execution in the first half of the year, our greater confidence in market momentum and most importantly, our ability to accelerate our cost reduction initiative implementation. Before I speak to the rest of our plan, I'd like to circle back to one of the most notable market indicator, which is preowned aircraft availability. It is now outperforming prepandemic levels. With most recent reports showing around 4% to 5% of the worldwide fleet for sale, we have reached a 2-decade low in availability with very little, if not any, younger vintage aircraft being available. We see this preowned trend as an important leading indicator to new aircraft demand. It also helps create a better pricing landscape for new transactions, all while helping asset value retention for existing aircraft owners. We also see the pre-owned segment as an opportunity to further diversify our revenue as we outlined in our Investor Day. To that end, we recently launched a certified preowned aircraft program which is a win-win in this market climate. This program sees Bombardier leveraging our service network to seek out and transform available aircraft into a more desirable offering for customers shopping in that sphere. We also continue to expand our service network reach and footprint. During the second quarter, we received the keys to our Singapore service center expansion with construction complete. We're now turning our focus to staffing and operationalizing the center nearly quadruple physical capacity in line with strong demand. Our similar project in the U.K., Miami and Australia also remain on track. Before I pass the floor to Bart, I'd like to quickly touch on progress toward the other opportunities we outlined at Investor Day.We have excellent line of sight on our cost reduction target. The 100 Global 7500 aircraft is moving toward the interior completion phase now, and we like the progress we're seeing from the team. If anything, we are working the learning curve slightly ahead of plan. On our recurring cost saving plan, as we previously mentioned, we had a small portion of the $400 million left to identify. We've made great progress on that front.We also have begun identifying and actioning further tie-on projects. But more importantly, this will become the foundation of our continuous improvement, lean mindset. With all of this, the team's work is already contributing more than originally planned to our bottom line this year, as you'll see when Bart details the guidance.And finally, deleveraging. We have spent a lot on this over the past 3 months. We have responsibly deployed capital towards clearing the 3-year runway we set out with only $1 billion left to go towards that objective. We've also seized refinancing opportunities where it makes sense. So let me stop here and turn it over to Bart to provide the details of our exceptional second quarter results, our raised full year expectation and what we've accomplished in terms of deleveraging our balance sheet. Bart, over to you.
Thank you very much, Eric, and good morning, everyone. As we turn the page on the first half of 2021, I am very pleased with what we've achieved so far this year. As Eric just outlined, we've made considerable progress on all of our priorities. Financially, we've had strong performance to date, which includes a 9.3% first half adjusted EBITDA margin and positive free cash flow generation in the second quarter.We've also announced today that we are revising our full year guidance upwards across all metrics. And I'll provide you with a little bit more color on this shortly. That said, we are taking nothing for granted. Our management team knows there is a lot more work ahead of us, and we remain fully focused on creating long-term value and reaching our 2025 objectives.Our strategic plan remains intact, and we are confident that we will continue to generate strong results in the future.Before we dive into our Q2 results and guidance revision, I'd like to begin by adding to Eric's comments regarding the progress on the 4 strategic priorities we outlined during our Investor Day.First, the Global 7500 learning curve is performing to plan. We remain on track to our objective of 20% unit cost reduction between the 50th and 100th aircraft. And we continue to have cost visibility well into next year. Program margins are improving quarter-over-quarter, and we expect margins to be accretive by the end of the year.Second, our $400 million cost reduction plan is continuing to pick up speed. We are now expecting to exceed the $100 million objective we set for ourselves this year and remain on track for the full $400 million in run rate savings by 2023.To that end, we have already identified and are implementing actions to capture $325 million of the $400 million target. And we expect to launch a number of initiatives in the coming months to close the remaining $75 million gap. Regarding our aftermarket expansion, our plan remains on track. Our fleet flying hours are back to pre-COVID levels, which bodes well for our business entering the second half of this year as flight hours translate to more service events as well as an increase in pay per hour revenue streams.Finally, we have continued to make significant progress over the last few months on deleveraging our balance sheet. Now I do know that there have been many press releases in the second quarter with regards to our capital structure. So let me give you a summary of where we stand as of today.First, we have reduced our gross debt by $2.7 billion since the start of the year and have also cleared 75% of the maturities we were facing in the 2021 to 2023 window. As Eric said, we now have approximately $1 billion remaining to clear a maturity runway that will be there until December of 2024.Our bondholders have been very supportive of our plan allowing us to successfully issue $1.5 billion of new debt, of which $1.2 billion matures in 2026 and $260 million matures in 2034. When combining all of the actions taken so far, we have increased our average years to maturity almost 50% from 3.4 years to 5 years currently.We have also reduced annual interest costs by more than $200 million so far and we still have room to further optimize. With over $2.1 billion of pro forma liquidity at our disposal, we have optionality going forward. Overall, our plan continues to progress. Our objective is to build a 3-plus year maturity runway, seek opportunistic refinancing of our existing debt and work to optimize liquidity.Now during our Investor Day, I mentioned that our capital structure approach would be phased. We continue to consider all of our options and also take into account changing market conditions as well as the performance of our own bonds.And you should expect us to continue this methodical and phased approach in the future as we progress towards our long-term goals. So with that, let's move on to our Q2 results, which continue to build off our strong Q1 performance.Total revenues for the quarter reached $1.5 billion, resulting from 29 aircraft deliveries and $295 million in aftermarket revenues. Reported revenues are up 25% year-over-year and more importantly, up 50% when adjusting for the impact from the divestitures we made in commercial aviation and Aerostructures.Our business aircraft year-over-year revenue growth was the result of 9 incremental deliveries as well as improved mix. Large cabin aircraft accounted for a higher content of deliveries going from 9 in 2020 to 17 this year. This includes 11 Global 7500 aircraft, demonstrating that we continue to smooth out the delivery profile for this platform.For the aftermarket business, revenues continued their quarter-over-quarter recovery towards pre-COVID levels increasing from $269 million in Q1 to $295 million in Q2. This represents an increase of 29% versus Q2 of last year, demonstrating a strong recovery year-over-year.Overall flight hours for the Bombardier fleet ended Q2 back at pre-COVID levels with North America going strong and hours in Europe starting to ramp up. As I mentioned earlier, divestitures did have an impact when comparing year-over-year reported results. Revenues from Aerostructures and Commercial Aviation accounted for a $225 million year-over-year reduction in revenues in Q2 and $625 million year-to-date.Moving to earnings. Total adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $143 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 9.4%. Adjusted EBIT was $32 million or an EBIT margin of 2.1%. Our adjusted EBITDA increased $112 million year-over-year. When looking at EBITDA margins, this marks an improvement of 690 basis points to 9.4% versus the 2.5% in the same quarter of last year.We also saw sequential quarter improvements versus Q1 of this year. The year-over-year improvement is attributable to the following factors. First, on the new aircraft side, we delivered more aircraft than in 2020. We also benefited from an improved delivery mix due to a higher content of large-cabin aircraft, which typically come with higher margins.On top of this, the Global 7500 aircraft margin contribution is a significant tailwind versus 2020 and continues to sequentially improve versus the first quarter of this year, on track with our objectives for margins to be accretive to Bombardier by the end of the year.Turning to our cost reduction efforts. We have already seen more than half of the $100 million savings targeted for this year materialize, and we now expect savings from the cost reduction efforts to be approximately $115 million for the full year, partially contributing to the increase in our EBIT and EBITDA guidance.Continuing with free cash flow, we saw a consolidated cash generation of $91 million in Q2 which included approximately $60 million of nonrecurring charges, adding to the $100 million we spent in Q1. As a reminder, we are planning for approximately $200 million in nonrecurring cash charges for the full year of '21. Our Q2 free cash flow result was underpinned by strong earnings as well as positive working capital performance stemming from strong order activity and disciplined inventory management.Advanced levels increased by $318 million to Q2 -- sorry, in Q2, as our unit book-to-bill reached approximately 1.8 and our overall backlog grew by $300 million to $10.7 billion. As expected, Global 7500 deliveries continue to outpace orders, but we expect this to stabilize as we near the targeted 18-to 24-month backlog window.It's important to also note that interest payments remained high at $237 million in the second quarter, which is comparable to the $243 million we paid in Q2 of last year. This is the result of paying the accrued interest on debt, which was being retired. However, we will begin to see meaningful reductions to our cash interest costs in the second half of this year as we start benefiting from the deleveraging actions we have taken.Now on to full year objectives. After a strong first half, based on solid execution and positive market momentum, we have made tremendous progress on building backlog and also find our production nearly sold out for the remainder of the year. As such, we expect aircraft deliveries to come in at the high end of our original guidance at approximately 120. Impacts from seasonality over the summer months will result in a calmer Q3 versus Q2 before an expected strong delivery output in Q4. This increase in deliveries, coupled with the positive trends in aftermarket flying hours, is driving an increase in our top line expectations to now be greater than $5.8 billion, up from prior guidance.Looking at EBITDA margins, the combination of a nearly sold-out skyline for the second half of the year, faster achievement of our cost reduction actions and year-to-date EBITDA margins of 9.3% give us increased confidence in our full year EBITDA performance. As a result, we are raising the expectation to greater than $575 million and EBIT to greater than $175 million. And this implies EBITDA margins for the full year in the 10% range versus 9% based on our original guidance. Q3 EBITDA margins should again be in the 9% range, as mentioned last quarter, before a stronger finish to the year.Finally, we have raised our free cash flow guidance by $200 million to better than $300 million of free cash flow usage, which does include the $200 million in nonrecurring outflows. This is the product of the increase in our profitability guidance, coupled with stronger working capital performance and increased certainty surrounding interest costs.Given our year-to-date free cash flow usage is $314 million, we expect to be positive for the second half of the year. Now despite all the encouraging signs we are seeing, there does remain many uncertainties mostly around economic recovery and reopening. And for this reason, we continue to be prudent in our free cash flow estimates. Again, considering the summer seasonality, we expect Q3 to be quieter than Q2, before a stronger finish to the year.So to conclude, we have achieved a lot so far this year, but it remains a transition year. The plan we shared in early March remains on track and we continue to focus on becoming a more predictable, profitable and resilient business aviation company. We remain focused on executing our strategic priorities and have made significant progress this year. We will keep clear, transparent communication with all of our stakeholders as we continue to reach milestones in the future. Thank you very much. And with that, I'll turn it back over to Francis to begin the Q&A session.
Thanks, Bart. I'd like to remind you that the Lombardi Investor Relations team is available following the call to answer any questions you may have. With that, we'll open up the line.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from Cameron Doerksen from National Bank Financial.
Thanks. So I just wonder if you could talk a little bit more about, I guess, the new order activity that you're seeing for business jets. How has that trended, I guess, into Q3? Are you seeing similar strength? And I'm also wondering if you can comment a little bit about the pricing that you're seeing on new orders and how that compares to what's in the backlog?
Great question, Cameron. So first of all, we are foreseeing the same momentum in Q3 that we've seen in Q2. So the level of activity, especially in North America remained very strong. The rest of the world is picking up. I think we've mentioned also how successful I think the fleet operator are in the current environment. And as you know, Bombardier is probably better positioned than any OEM with the fleet operator.So clearly, for us, it's been an interesting journey in that sense. So -- and in terms of pricing, on your question on pricing, we are very happy to what we're seeing right now. So pricing is firming up. We've seen it going through Q2. And clearly, the backlog that we've been able to generate in the last quarter, which was over 50 airplanes is giving us good confidence.That's one of the reasons today why we are capable of improving our guidance towards the rest of the year.
Okay. Great. And just to follow on that, just also wonder what you're seeing kind of on trade-ins. Is there any kind of changes that you're seeing there? Are you being less aggressive, or you're feeling you have to be less aggressive on taking trade-ins?
We -- there's not many airplanes, as I said earlier, being available out there. But when we have an opportunity to trade in, we look at them one by one. And if it makes economical sense for us, especially with the new preowned program that we've just launched a couple of weeks ago, we show probably interest there of bringing an airplane in, recertifying that airplane for the market, which needs it right now.So clearly, it's a case by case depending on the state of the airplane. But again, there's not that many available, but we are very selective and being careful there. But we believe that we are probably better positioned than anyone to add value to those legacy airplanes.
The next question is from Konark Gupta from Scotiabank.
So wondering the book-to-bill ratio of 1.8x, that was pretty strong. And as you mentioned, Eric, it's been the best year I have seen in many, many months or years maybe. How much of this strong demand is driven by, you think, travelers who were previously flying commercial? And what are your customers, especially fleet customers telling you about sustainability in the demand?
So as we indicated before -- thanks, Konark, for your question. We clearly see new customer, a fair-- a bigger percentage probably than usual on new customer. But clearly, I think where there is much more momentum right now is with the fleet operator. So I think that the people that used to fly commercial, right now for safety reason mainly and also availability of connection, I think -- and those that can afford it, they are shifting towards fleet operator more and more and -- which creates quite a bit of demand for the fleet operator.So I would say probably that this is where there is strong momentum right now. And as I just said, we are very well positioned, Bombardier, towards the major fleet operator across the globe. So that's great for our business. But also at the same time on those nonfleet operator, personal user, we see a new entrant. But we also see people renewing their fleet and they've been with us for a long time and refreshing their airplane in that market.
That's great. And then just a follow-up on the backlog here. So it was up $300 million sequentially, the book-to-bill ratio in units was pretty strong. So I'm assuming there's been more order activity perhaps in the smaller or medium-size jets versus Globals. Is that correct? And if you can provide any color on splits, please. Thank you.
Okay. So clearly, we are extremely happy with our backlog strengthening. And I think I've said it before, we had clearly some program where our backlog was very low. Now right in front of us, we have good backlog on every single program, which give us that predictable level and better visibility.And again, I think, having better visibility is giving us predictable success on the delivery, on pricing on a lot of fronts. So clearly, the backlog right now is better distributed, if I can say it this way, on all front, on all program.
The next question is from Benoit Poirier from Desjardins Capital Markets.
On the back of the good backlog and good visibility you have on all specific programs, what do you need to see before revisiting your production rates upward?
Great question. We're asking ourselves that question every day. But to be fully transparent with you. I think right now, we are very focused on growing our backlog. And there is -- we have internal target in terms of number of months of backlog that we like to see on airplane.Of course, there's a minimum number that give us more comfort and more predictability. But having too much backlog also can become a problem because you don't have the availability for customer if the market is strong. So we have a clear target of a minimum and a maximum, which obviously, for competitive reasons, I'm not going to share. But clearly, we will revisit if we ever achieve those maximum or exceed those maximum target of backlog.So clearly, we're having a conversation, but there's no decision. Right now, we're really focused on filling the backlog, making us more predictable. At the same time, in parallel to that, and I think we've mentioned that earlier on this call, we have to be humble also. The market is very strong right now. But you've been following that industry long enough, Benoit, that sometimes things can change rapidly. So we have to be careful and assess also the impact of what's happening right now.We see, as we all know, Wave 4 probably picking up clearly in some other countries, starting here. So we have to assess what this could mean. So far, the -- it gave momentum. The pandemic has given momentum to the business jet industry. But at the same time, if the economy is being affected at large, then we have to assess that. So between having our own target on backlog, but also our view on the long term of the market and especially on the financial point of view, will be key in that decision.
Okay. That's great color. And just for the follow-up, could you maybe talk a little bit about the strategy for the remaining $1 billion over the next 3 years and whether the free cash flow, we should expect somewhat of a reversal in Q3 before seeing a strong finish toward the year end Q4?
So I think the way you're alluding to our cost-saving program in the next 3 years in your first question. So if that's the case, we've made great progress on our cost-saving program. And the remaining part is getting smaller and smaller. So we have clear visibility on how we will be achieving the majority of that $400 million saving. In terms of maturity, I wasn't too sure if you were also covering the maturity.We have $1 billion left to be addressed so that we clear the whole runway up to the next maturity of 2023, which will put us in a great position. That was what we've announced and what was our intent and our target when we -- at Investor Day early March, and we're in sight of achieving this.So clearly, that will make us -- put us in a great position because then if we achieve that, and that's our goal, the next maturity will be at December 2024 now.
The next question is from Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets.
So I'd just like to follow up on Benoit's question on production rates and assuming that the strong book-to-bill continues and demand continues despite any challenges regarding the fourth wave and so on. What is the highest production rate that you can deliver without any major CapEx spend? I know there were some indications before about what that level might be. But obviously, you've done a lot of reconfiguration. Just looking for the new production capacity that exists with your current footprint without any major CapEx spend to change it?
I would suggest that we do have -- and of course, Walter, I won't give a precise number here for competitive reasons, but I'm sure you understand. But if you look at the Challenger, we have without investment capability to improve quite a bit our production rate. As you know, we've always kept the space. We've minimized our space in the last year, and we continue to do that, but we still have quite a bit of room on the Challenger. It's a bit less on the Global, but we still have -- there's years where we used to produce 80 Global a year, and we still have that footprint. And so overall, we're in a good position, and we have other sites also that we could always use if we would like to do more than that. So the capability is there, to answer your question, to increase the rate with the actual footprint.
Okay. That's very encouraging. And looking out to your guidance in 2025 and given your trajectory here in the early part -- in the early year of that path, you're achieving results ahead of expectations, ahead of your own guidance on the near term. Does that mean that the curve is just -- the shape of the curve is changing and the end result is the same in terms of 2025? Or are you seeing new avenues that were unexpected that would -- is now pushing or putting upward pressure -- upward support to your 2025 guidance? And what would have to happen before you adjust your 2025 guide.
So those are great questions. I believe right now, it's probably too early to assess. 2025 is still 4 years away. There's a lot of things -- you and I know that there's a lot of things that can happen between now and then. But to your point, it's great to be on the positive side of the curve we've already designed. But to answer also your next question, which is what would that take? Of course, if we would see that momentum on the positive side for couple of years in a row then I think there's a case to be made that we should revisit potentially that guidance. But I don't think we're there yet. Right now, we are happy to be ahead of the curve if I may say it this way. But in the long run, it's too far ahead right now to be able to predict that. So that would take a boost of the market, really. And too early to assess right now.
Congratulations on a good quarter.
The next question is from Robert Spingarn from Credit Suisse.
Nice numbers today. I do have a few questions or clarifications I wanted to ask about. Bart, just on the backlog being flat December to June. I know it's up from March, and I'm sure you talked about this last quarter, but could you just remind us what happened there, given that the book-to-bill has been good all year so far? Is it the services business that's included there?
Yes. Yes, absolutely. So we started the year with a strong backlog of close to where we are, currently at $10.7 billion. We did see an increase in backlog over the quarter. Now that was on the back of strong new order activity. In the first quarter and the second quarter, we did have a significant number of deliveries of our larger aircraft. So that's why we see a bit of the shape of the curve that you're probably looking at.However, we also have been able to now build strong backlog on all of our other platforms. As Eric was mentioning earlier, we've got good distribution across all the platforms now and with the book-to-bill of 1.8 being across all of them. We aren't going to speculate on targeting backlog level, Rob, as you can probably appreciate, for competitive reasons. But we're very pleased with where we're at. Hopefully, that gives you a bit of color as to why the shape of the curve is what it is.
Got it. It sounds like it's mix.
It is.
So yes, the next thing I wanted to ask, Eric, just high level strategically, obviously, the high end of the market is very attractive. And now Dassault is going to jump in with 10X. You've got the 700 coming and all of this happens toward the end of your forecast or your guidance period, but what do you think about the high end of the market maybe getting a little bit crowded? And does that perhaps affect the profitability at some point -- not in the near term, but down the road?
Down the road. But that's a fair question. But first of all, the Falcon 10X right now is a paper plane. So we're still years away before we really see this hit the ground. But the more important part is we are very much pleased with the performance of our Global 7500. So the Global 7500 right now is receiving a very favorable -- is very favorable to our customer. This is the airplane that is the leading-edge airplane of the industry right now, not just the Bombardier but of the industry. So it's flying higher, faster, further than any other airplane. And the most important thing, too, is the reliability wise, we are outpacing pretty much all airplanes.So that airplane, even if it's still a young program, it's already performing extremely well on the reliability front. So we do believe also that our airplane specs are outperforming everything that is available right now to compete with us. Customer buys the airplane. The principle, most of the time -- that buys the airplane, the interior design is always one of the most important things.So there's the airplane performance, and this we'll still continue to lead but also Bombardier has a clear trade -- it's part of our trademark that we do the best interior. We always refresh our design. We always offer the best technology on board, and that's something that is extremely important. So we are planning also with new entrants coming in.And yes, there will be, but it was already taken care of and made it as an assumption -- part of our plan for '25.
Okay. And then just to finish up, I wanted to delve into this preowned venture that you're talking about. Just make sure I understand what it is you're going to do. Is this simply a focus on some trade-in aircraft? Are you actually going out into the secondhand market?
No, we're going to do both, actually. So of course, we have access more easily on what's coming our way with trade-in. But we do believe, and we've studied that and we actually did a couple of airplanes this year. And there's things that are exclusive in terms that an OEM can do on an airplane that nobody else can in terms of resetting a few things on the airplane so that it creates value. So we are positioned to create value on every one of those airplanes more than anyone. And we believe as an OEM, we -- there's a market for that. And people like the idea that, that airplane came to the OEM was completely reset and refreshed with new technology put on board. And we have the capability, of course, in our service center across the world to do that. So that's what we're having in mind.
This will be strictly Bombardier aircraft, not anything else?
That's strictly Bombardier airplane.
The next question is from Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.
It wasn't clear to me what the answer was there to the unit backlog being considerably higher than -- sorry, the unit book-to-bill versus the book-to-bill implied by the change in the backlog. There's a big differential there. Is that -- is Challenger stronger than Global? Or is it just having the 7500 in the denominator but not the numerator? I just want to make sure I understand that. And then ...
One of the -- sorry, go ahead. I thought you were finished.
No, no, no. Go ahead. I'll leave it there.
So one of the things that we said earlier in this meeting and earlier in the year is that we had a very strong backlog, multiyear backlog on the Global 7500. The reality is that we also said that the delivery on the 7500 will be outpacing the gross order this year.So if you strictly look at the 7500 -- and as you know, every one of those airplane has more [ value ] than any of the other airplane on the backlog -- will be depleting a little bit this year. But this was something that we saw in Q1 and in Q2. But we've seen every other single platform increasing.So that's the reality. But as I mentioned earlier, we are always -- we have a minimum and a maximum target in terms of number of months for every product. And the good news right now is on the 7500. We had a long backlog. Now we're getting into the zone where people will be more comfortable because the delivery date is at reach, I would say, this way, and more visible to them.So it was normal when we have a huge backlog. You're starting delivery to see that backlog depleting for a couple of quarters, even a couple of years. But now as I mentioned, we're getting into the zone that we like to be. And we believe that we -- between now and year-end, we're going to see order picking up on the 7500.
But so Eric, it sounds like it's putting the 7500 aside, it doesn't sound like you're seeing a big difference in mid versus large ex 7500 in Challenger versus 5500, 6500, it sounds fairly broad-based. Is that fair?
If you're talking about the gross order, it's well distributed.
In terms of new order demand, yes.
Yes. The new order demand, we're in the medium and large business right now, and we see the order demand strong on both category.
Okay. And then just on the cash flow, it's been a while since the company had positive free cash flow in the second quarter. The guidance for the year implies that the back half is kind of breakeven, although I think you maybe said slightly positive. Could you maybe just talk us through if there was any advances or other working capital helping the second quarter? Does third quarter stay positive and fourth quarter doesn't have its usual seasonality or 3Q go negative and 4Q does have a seasonality? Any incremental color on that pacing would be really helpful.
Sure. No. Yes. It's Bart here. I think you've hit actually all of the all of the themes, and it's a bit of all of that. So let me try and just walk you through this a little bit. So we have the $91 million of free cash flow positive generation in the second quarter. And you're right, that was ahead of our plan, so a very positive outcome. That does include the absorption of about $60 million in nonrecurring charges. So if you think of future years going forward, it was -- it translates more into like a $150 million of positive cash flow.Now if I just kind of walk you through it, we -- If you look at the guidance, we had originally said we'd have better than $500 million of usage. We're now forecasting incremental profit of about $75 million. To your point, we did have strong working capital in the quarter -- better than planned. So better inventory management as well as the strong new order activity, and that contributed to higher working -- better working capital than we had planned. And we're now looking at increased certainty in the back half of the year and going forward on interest costs. So that's the remaining $125 million approximately that gets us to the better than $300 million usage.You're correct in the assumption. I think I said this in my comments as well, that we expect to be breakeven in the back half. So you've got that right. And with the 7500 deliveries outpacing a strong performance on the other platforms, the thing we're focused still is our goal of building backlog, and we expect to reduce inventories in the second half of the year as well. So hopefully, that gives you color on it.
The next question is from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.
Good results. I guess, Eric, when you spoke a little while ago and you spoke about kind of taking a long-term view and that market demand is fairly strong right now, stronger than it's been in a while. But you have to think about things kind of through cycle and through cycle, business jets has been an industry that at times, it seemed like it's had overcapacity. So I guess maybe if you update us on your -- any thoughts you have kind of long term about the potential for or need for consolidation in the industry?
Okay. Good point. So I don't want to speculate about consolidation of the industry. Those are things that are being looked into by a lot of people all the time. But at this stage, we do remain focused on our own -- we do have an amazing portfolio of product ourselves in the field where we're competing. And we're competing in the large, medium, but also our services business. As you know, we have great ambition there of growing that business significantly over the next coming years.So that remains our focus. And our plan is clear. And clearly, we'll continue, as I said earlier, to monitor the long-term trend of the industry. But so far, the trends are positive, which we are super happy with. And we'll see, I think, in the next 2, 3 quarters, if that trend solidify and then we hit those targets that we gave ourselves internally in terms of backlog, we will be reassessing what we do moving forward.But we are happy. We're ahead of the curve right now in the plan we communicated and we are not speculating on any potential consolidation at this stage because we believe the market is strong. There's a lot of new customer coming in, the fleet operator are growing, and I think there will be room for a lot of business airplane in the next 5 years.
Great. Great. And then just to follow up real quick on the cash flow dynamics from those questions, Bart, with regard to the second half. So when we think about Q4, especially with some improvement in deliveries, interest costs, it seems like should be better -- cash flow is positive in the second quarter.Is there -- with good performance, it would seem maybe there's potential to be better than breakeven in second half. But is there anything that I'm omitting there in terms of headwinds versus the quarter that we just had?
Yes. Thanks, Seth. What I'd say is this, that when we came out with our Investor Day in March of this year, one of the things that we said we wanted to try and do for our company and for the market was to be reasonable and be somewhat conservative on our -- in providing our outlook and guidance. And so I would say that on free cash flow, we are in our current guidance, probably being a bit conservative. So we're being consistent with that strategy.We do feel very confident on executing on our plan for the remainder of the year. I think as Eric highlighted in his comments earlier, we're basically sold out on all of our aircraft for the year or very near that. And so having the high confidence in our aircraft sales and deliveries as well, puts us in a great position. We have executed on plan for our debt reduction and recapitalization strategy. So you're right, that will give us a tailwind on cash flows going forward because we're going to start to lower interest expense contributing in the second half of this year and go forward.We're now over $200 million in reduced interest expense. And in the first half of the year, we didn't really get to see the benefit of that just yet because we had to pay accrued interest on some of the bonds that we were retiring. So those things -- all of those things are contributing. Now I will say as well, I think we're being prudent by being a bit conservative. We all know there's uncertainty still out there. Eric's quite right. Volatility can occur. And so we want to remain a bit conservative. The Delta variant, for example. So we'll continue to monitor markets but very confident in our forecast for the back half of the year.
The next question is from Stephen Trent from Citi.
I just wanted to think further out. So certainly, you've presented a compelling trajectory through 2025. And when you think about the investment cycle, looking across global aviation, certainly on the commercial airline side, there's a lot of discussion about sustainable aviation fuel and new generations of aircraft, electric takeoff vehicles and what have you. Just from a high-level perspective, I'd love to get your thoughts on how you come down on all of that.
Yes. No, this is a great question, Stephen, and thanks for asking that. But I rejoined the company a year ago. Clearly, my focus with the team here was the first 5 years in our first strategic plan cycle. Now we're in the middle of the second one. And clearly, we're now thinking about year -- I will call it, year 5 to 15. And all those great questions are in front of us right now.And we already spent money on research and development on how can we get an airplane flying with using a lot less fuel than it is today. And there's a different answers to that. Yes, we're working with the engine people. But us, Bombardier, there's a lot we can do there. And it's -- I'm not even thinking here of sustainable fuel and also engine performing better. I'm just thinking about the airplane itself. So our R&D right now is very focused. All our -- pretty much all our R&D money spend right now is focused on thinking about airplane of the future being greener and being more favorable to the environment. So that's clearly how we are approaching it at this stage to shape up the future and have a greener business aircraft contribution -- a better contribution than we have today.
Okay. Appreciate that. And just as a very quick follow-up, I believe, Mr. Gupta asked earlier, if I'm not mistaken. What do we think about let's say, nontraditional business jet customers? Any sort of high-level sense kind of roughly what proportion of your new business is coming from customers you usually typically wouldn't see?
I think that percentage was traditionally in the 5%, 6% zone. But clearly, this year, in terms of new entrants, we've seen that number increasing to a larger extent. But we also have, as I said, a lot of new entrants are using the channel of going to a fleet operator which ends up being good for us too. So it's difficult for me to put a precise number, but we clearly see that we do ourselves have some sales that are coming from people that are joining, I would say, the business aircraft way of traveling and also probably the majority of them are going towards a fleet operator.
There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Martel.
Okay. So thanks to all of you for attending this morning, and it's a real pleasure for us to exchange with you all. We are building good momentum. And like I've said many times, our main focus is transparency and predictability. We're very excited about the market and the product we are competing in the space. But the heart of our plan is our customer and our people.We will continue to remain disciplined and prudent. And I look forward to speaking with you all soon. So stay safe and healthy, and thank you for attending again.
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