ARC Resources Ltd
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one ARX stock under the Base Case scenario is 33.41 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 25.45 CAD, ARC Resources Ltd is Undervalued by 24%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
ARC Resources Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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ARC Resources Ltd. is a dynamic player in the Canadian oil and gas sector, recognized for its strategic focus on efficient resource development and environmental sustainability. Founded in 1996 and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, ARC has carved out a notable presence in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, which is rich in natural gas and oil reserves. The company's operations center on a diversified portfolio of high-quality assets, allowing it to capitalize on the growing global demand for energy while maintaining a commitment to responsible resource management. With a strong emphasis on innovation and technology-driven solutions, ARC is well-positioned to navigate the complexities o...
ARC Resources Ltd. is a dynamic player in the Canadian oil and gas sector, recognized for its strategic focus on efficient resource development and environmental sustainability. Founded in 1996 and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, ARC has carved out a notable presence in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, which is rich in natural gas and oil reserves. The company's operations center on a diversified portfolio of high-quality assets, allowing it to capitalize on the growing global demand for energy while maintaining a commitment to responsible resource management. With a strong emphasis on innovation and technology-driven solutions, ARC is well-positioned to navigate the complexities of the energy market, ensuring sustainable production and maximizing shareholder value.
For investors, ARC Resources represents a compelling opportunity to invest in a company that balances growth with sustainability. The firm is differentiated by its robust financial performance, marked by consistent cash flow generation and disciplined capital allocation. ARC's commitment to reducing its carbon footprint and increasing operational efficiencies resonates with a growing number of environmentally conscious investors. Additionally, the company has a track record of returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reflecting its dedication to enhancing shareholder returns. As the energy landscape continues to evolve, ARC Resources is poised to adapt and thrive, making it a noteworthy addition to any investment portfolio focused on the future of energy.
ARC Resources Ltd. is a Canadian energy company focused primarily on the exploration, production, and development of oil and natural gas resources. Its core business segments can be broken down as follows:
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Natural Gas Production: This is a significant segment for ARC, as the company has substantial production capabilities in natural gas, particularly in the Montney region of northeastern British Columbia and northwestern Alberta. This segment allows ARC to leverage the growing demand for natural gas, both for domestic energy consumption and as a cleaner-burning fuel substitute for coal.
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Oil Production: ARC Resources also has operations in crude oil production, which complements its natural gas business. The company's oil production is typically focused on light oil and liquids, contributing to its revenue generation and providing a hedge against fluctuations in natural gas prices.
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Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Apart from conventional natural gas and oil, ARC produces natural gas liquids, which include components like ethane, propane, and butane. This segment is beneficial as NGLs often command higher prices than dry natural gas, enhancing the overall profitability of ARC's resource portfolio.
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Infrastructure and Midstream Services: ARC Resources invests in midstream and infrastructure operations to optimize its resource development. This segment includes the management of pipelines, processing plants, and other facilities that facilitate the transport and processing of oil and gas. By maintaining control over its infrastructure, ARC can improve efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance the profitability of its operations.
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Renewable Energy Initiatives: While primarily focused on fossil fuels, ARC Resources may also be exploring opportunities in renewable energy sources as part of its long-term strategy to align with global energy transition trends. This could include investments in carbon capture and storage (CCS) and other sustainable practices.
Overall, ARC Resources Ltd. remains focused on leveraging its competitive advantages in natural gas and oil production, while also adapting to market trends and environmental considerations in the energy sector.
ARC Resources Ltd has several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the oil and gas sector. Here are some key factors:
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Strong Asset Base: ARC Resources boasts a high-quality, diverse portfolio of assets primarily located in the Montney formation, which is one of the most productive and cost-effective natural gas plays in North America. This gives them a competitive edge in both production efficiency and resource longevity.
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Operational Efficiency: The company focuses on operational excellence, employing advanced technologies and best practices to optimize production and minimize costs. Their economies of scale and efficient operations enable them to maintain profitability even in volatile market conditions.
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Financial Strength: ARC maintains a solid balance sheet with manageable debt levels, providing financial flexibility. This allows them to weather downturns in the commodity cycle better than many competitors, invest consistently in growth opportunities, and return value to shareholders.
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Sustainability Initiatives: ARC is committed to environmental sustainability and responsible resource development. Their focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and investing in carbon capture technologies appeals to environmentally-conscious investors and customers, creating a competitive advantage in a market increasingly focused on sustainability.
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Long-term Growth Strategy: The company's disciplined approach to capital allocation and investment in high-return projects ensures long-term growth. They prioritize projects with low break-even costs, allowing them to remain competitive even in low-price environments.
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Experienced Management Team: ARC has a strong management team with deep industry knowledge and experience, which enables them to make informed strategic decisions that enhance the company’s competitive positioning.
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Strong Market Position: Given their established reputation and relationships in the industry, ARC has a strong market position, which helps in securing favorable contracts and partnerships.
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Diversification of Products: Beyond natural gas, ARC is involved in the production of liquids such as oil and NGLs (natural gas liquids), providing diversification that helps mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in any single commodity market.
These factors contribute to ARC Resources Ltd’s competitive advantages, making it well-positioned to navigate market challenges and capitalize on opportunities in the energy sector.
As a prominent player in the energy sector, particularly in natural gas and oil production, ARC Resources Ltd faces several risks and challenges that could affect its operations and financial performance in the near future. Here are some key considerations:
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Commodity Price Volatility: The prices of natural gas, crude oil, and NGLs (natural gas liquids) are subject to significant fluctuations due to global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical issues, and market speculation. A sustained drop in commodity prices could impact revenue and profitability.
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Regulatory Risks: The energy sector is heavily regulated, and changes in environmental regulations, taxation policies, and government incentives can affect operations. Health and safety regulations also play a crucial role, and non-compliance can lead to substantial penalties.
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Operational Risks: ARC Resources operates in challenging environments where sudden disruptions—due to equipment failures, accidents, or natural disasters—can impact production levels. Managing operational efficiency is essential to mitigate these risks.
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Market Competition: The energy sector is competitive, with many companies vying for market share. ARC must continuously innovate and find ways to reduce costs in order to maintain its competitive edge.
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Environmental Concerns and ESG Factors: Growing concerns around climate change and environmental sustainability have forced companies to adapt. ARC Resources faces pressure to comply with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards, and failure to do so could lead to reputational damage and loss of investment.
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Investment and Financing: Access to capital can be challenging, especially during economic downturns. ARC’s ability to finance exploration and production activities can be affected by broader economic conditions and investor sentiment towards the fossil fuel industry.
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Technological Changes: The energy sector is undergoing significant technological advancements. Companies that fail to adopt new technologies for extraction, efficiency, and sustainability may fall behind their competitors.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues, particularly following events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can lead to delays in production or increased costs for materials and services.
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Global Economic Conditions: The performance of ARC Resources is linked to the broader economy. Economic slowdowns in key markets can reduce demand for energy, thereby affecting sales and pricing power.
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Strategic Execution Risks: As the company pursues strategic initiatives—such as acquisitions, new projects, or market expansions—there are inherent risks associated with execution, integration, and achieving desired returns.
Given these challenges, it is crucial for ARC Resources to adopt sound risk management practices, remain agile in a rapidly changing market, and strategically align its operations with emerging trends in the energy sector.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
ARC Resources Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
ARC Resources Ltd
Current Assets | 828.2m |
Receivables | 514.1m |
Other Current Assets | 314.1m |
Non-Current Assets | 12.1B |
Long-Term Investments | 24.8m |
PP&E | 11.7B |
Intangibles | 248.2m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 109.8m |
Current Liabilities | 887.5m |
Accounts Payable | 600.6m |
Accrued Liabilities | 47.9m |
Other Current Liabilities | 239m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 4.3B |
Long-Term Debt | 2.4B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.9B |
Earnings Waterfall
ARC Resources Ltd
Revenue
|
5.1B
CAD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-1.6B
CAD
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Gross Profit
|
3.4B
CAD
|
Operating Expenses
|
-2.2B
CAD
|
Operating Income
|
1.2B
CAD
|
Other Expenses
|
73.3m
CAD
|
Net Income
|
1.3B
CAD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
ARC Resources Ltd
CAD | |
Free Cash Flow | CAD |
In its latest earnings call, ARC Resources reported average production of 327,000 BOE per day, exceeding analyst expectations. The company achieved significant growth in light oil and condensate production, up 20% quarter-over-quarter. A 12% dividend increase reflects confidence in future cash flows due to the Attachie project's successful first phase. For 2025, ARC aims for 10% production growth, projecting $3.2 billion in cash flow and around $1.5 billion in free cash flow. Through disciplined capital management, they plan to return all free cash flow to shareholders and are targeting to triple free cash flow per share by 2028, bolstered by continued operational efficiencies.
What is Earnings Call?
ARX Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
ARC Resources Ltd's profitability score is 65/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
ARC Resources Ltd's profitability score is 65/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
ARX Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
ARC Resources Ltd's solvency score is 57/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
ARC Resources Ltd's solvency score is 57/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
ARX Price Targets Summary
ARC Resources Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARX is 31.14 CAD with a low forecast of 27.27 CAD and a high forecast of 36.75 CAD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for ARX is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
ARC Resources Ltd. engages in the exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta. The firm's activities are focused on the exploration, development and production of unconventional crude oil, condensate, natural gas and Natural gas liquids (NGLs) in western Canada. The firm's assets are located in northeast British Columbia and northern Alberta in the Montney formation. The Company’s operations in Northern Alberta are located near Grande Prairie and include Kakwa and Ante Creek. The firm's operations in northeast British Columbia feature low-emissions assets and a network of owned-and-operated facilities that are connected to third-party egress and hydroelectricity. The Company’s operations in the Northeast British Columbia region include Greater Dawson, Sunrise and Attachie. The Greater Dawson operating area includes Dawson Phases I, II, III and IV and Parkland 3-9.
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The intrinsic value of one ARX stock under the Base Case scenario is 33.41 CAD.
Compared to the current market price of 25.45 CAD, ARC Resources Ltd is Undervalued by 24%.