Atrium Mortgage Investment Corp

TSX:AI

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q1

[Operator]

Welcome to the Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation's first quarter conference call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, Thursday, May 12, 2022.

Certain statements will be made during this phone call that may be forward-looking statements. Although Atrium believes that such statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, actual results may differ materially. Forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs, estimates and opinions of Atrium's management on the date the statements are made. Atrium undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements in the event that management's beliefs, estimates or opinions or other factors change.

I would like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Goodall, President. Please go ahead.

[Robert G. Goodall, executive]

Thank you. And thank you for calling in today. Our CFO, Jennifer Scoffield, will start by talking about our financial results. And then I will speak about our performance from an operational and portfolio perspective.

[Jennifer Scoffield, executive]

Atrium had a great start to the year. For the quarter ended March 31, 2022, we had revenues of $16.4 million, consistent with the first quarter of 2021. Mortgage interest and fees were consistent with the first quarter of 2021 as the increase in the size of the mortgage portfolio was offset by a lower weighted average interest rate for the current quarter.

Our net income for the quarter was $10.6 million, up from $9.9 million in Q1 2021, and our earnings per share were $0.25 compared to $0.23 in the first quarter of 2021.

During the quarter, we declared dividends of $9.6 million or $0.225 per share. Our earnings per share of $0.25 exceeded dividends declared by $0.025 per share this quarter.

Operating expenses for Q1 2022, excluding the recovery of mortgage losses and impairment, remained consistent with prior quarters at approximately 1.1% of assets on an annualized basis. We booked a recovery of mortgage losses this quarter of $1 million, which was a result of the sale of the property securing the impaired loan classified as Stage 3 at a price in excess of the sales price used at year-end to estimate the expected credit loss on that loan at that time. This sale closed in mid-April, and the loss was considerably less than what we had previously estimated.

Our total allowance for loan losses at March 31 was $9.4 million or 1.2% of our gross portfolio, and the allowance for mortgage losses on performing loans which are those loans classified as Stage 1 and Stage 2 and not considered impaired, totaled $7.7 million at March 31, 2022, or 0.98% of all performing loans. During the quarter, we successfully negotiated a settlement of $800,000 some of the guarantors of a loan on which we incurred a loss 3 years ago. This amount was collected in April.

During the first quarter, we made the decision to stop actively marketing for sale the 90-unit property in Regina due to a higher-than-usual vacancy rate at the beginning of the quarter and to allow for the completion of maintenance work on the property. After considering the above as well as other real estate transactions under negotiation in Regina at that time and the economic conditions in Saskatchewan, we recorded an impairment of $1.8 million on this property in Q1.

Our interest expense for the quarter was $3.6 million, an increase of 6% from Q1 2021. This increase was due to a higher balance being drawn on our credit facility during the current quarter and a higher weighted average cost of borrowing. The annualized weighted average interest rate on our credit facility was 2.92% this quarter compared to 2.76% in the first quarter of 2021.

Our mortgages receivable balance at March 31, 2022, was $786 million, an increase of 3.5% from year-end and the highest in Atrium's history. During the quarter, we funded mortgages totaling $140 million and had repayments of $117 million.

At March 31, 2022, the portfolio had a weighted average loan-to-value of 61.1%. The weighted average interest rate on the portfolio at March 31 was 8.32%, an increase of 6 basis points from December 31, 2021. We believe the rising interest rate environment should have a positive impact on our earnings since at March 31, approximately 63% of our portfolio was priced at a floating rate, the majority was rate floors, while only approximately 22% of our source of funds were priced at floating rate.

We closed the quarter with a conservative debt to total assets ratio of 42.5% and total assets of $825 million, again, the highest in Atrium's history. I will now pass you over to Rob Goodall, our CEO.

[Robert G. Goodall, executive]

Thank you. As Jennifer mentioned, Atrium MIC generated strong earnings per share of $0.25 in Q1, and it was a quarter in which all but one of our commercial loan arrears were repaid. So the balance sheet is in great shape, and we're off to a good start for 2022. We had a near record level of $140 million of loan advances in Q1, up substantially from $93 million from Q1 2021, a year earlier. Any quarter where we surpassed the $100 million mark for new mortgage advances is a very good quarter for us.

As I've mentioned in previous calls, this high level of origination is a reflection of the expansion of our debt team. For the quarter, the mortgage portfolio increased by 3.2% from $767 million to $791 million. This growth occurred despite another quarter of high turnover.

Loan repayments were again unusually high at $116 million. As you may recall, we experienced an unprecedented 58% loan -- portfolio loan turnover in 2021. And based on the first quarter of 2022, our annualized turnover would be 60%. But unlike last year, many of the loan repayments in Q1 were in the Vancouver market, including the loans which were in arrears.

We have shown by now that we're capable of originating enough business to deal with whatever the repayment situation is in a given year. I continue to believe that Atrium's loan portfolio will grow larger as the year progresses, barring a material slowdown in the residential and commercial real estate markets.

The loan quality of the portfolio improved materially in Q1. The 3 loans in arrears in Vancouver, which were cross-collateralized by 4 properties, were repaid in full. In fact, the 3 loans were fully repaid after the borrowers sold only 2 of the 4 properties. This confirms what we have stated previously, namely that our loan-to-value was always very safe. In addition, shortly after quarter end, we were repaid on the only loan in the portfolio that was impaired. Again, that was good news. We sold the property for more than expected and had a net recovery of $1 million on our loan loss provision.

As a result, today, we have only one $6 million commercial loan and one $650,000 single-family loan in default, representing less than 1% of the total mortgage portfolio. And we continue to have an ample loan loss provision, which now totals $9.4 million, equal to 119 basis points. The average loan-to-value of the portfolio also remained steady in Q1 at 61.1% and continues to remain well below our target of 65%.

Turning to our operations. Approximately 86% of the funded loans in Q1 were from Ontario and 14% from BC. The geographic composition of the portfolio is now 71.5% in Ontario, 27.5% in BC and less than 1% in Alberta. We are comfortable with this geographic allocation.

By sector, 93% of the new loans funded in Q1 were residential or multiresidential loans, with the balance being commercial loans. The single-family mortgage division had another strong quarter with $29 million of funded loans, up from $18 million last quarter. While single-family mortgages do have a lower-than-average mortgage rate, they also have a lower risk profile. The single-family portfolio is entirely located in the GTA, Ottawa, Hamilton and Kitchener. And all of the mortgages are under 75% loan to appraised value.

In Q4, our average mortgage rate was 8.32%, up from 8.26% last quarter. This was mostly due to the 0.25% increase in the prime rate of interest on March 3 which allowed Atrium's prime-based loans, which represents 62% of the portfolio, to be repriced. Atrium's percentage of first mortgages remained very high at 91%. Each of the 3 provinces where we operate has more than 88% of its portfolio in first mortgages.

It's worth noting that the percentage of construction loans now represent less than 7% of the total portfolio. Given the level of inflation that is occurring in construction costs, we feel that a conservative level of exposure in construction loans is appropriate at this time.

Perhaps the risk metric which best exemplifies our defensive lending philosophy is that 98.3% of the portfolio is less than 75% loan-to-value. This is a percentage that is significantly higher than our peers and reflects a very defensively oriented mortgage portfolio. So our strong earnings per share continues to be achieved even as we lower the risk profile of the portfolio.

Turning to defaults. Defaults in our commercial and multiresidential business was limited to 2 borrowers at quarter end and only 1 borrower by April 15. The first was a $5.8 million first mortgage on an estate subdivision in Southwest Calgary. You may recall that we decided to pull the listing for this project from the market for 6 to 9 months in the spring of 2021 as the Calgary housing market was showing signs of strength for the first time in many years. Our decision to delay the listing was rewarded in Q1 of 2022 when 2 strong offers were received. The ultimate sales price ended up being more than we conservatively estimated and, as a result, there was a $1 million recovery in the loan loss reserve. Please note that this is the only loan in the entire portfolio where we expected to incur a loss.

The other loan is a $6 million first mortgage in Sutton, Ontario. Interest on this loan is actually current, but the loan is categorized as being in technical default because we engaged a private receiver in late 2021 in order to complete site servicing. Atrium is funding the senior tranche of the first mortgage and has an estimated loan-to-value of 64%, so we do not see any risk of loss. Our collateral consists of 138 draft plan approved building lots, which are fully presold through credible loan builder as well as a 6-acre school site and a small commercial block. The receiver has hired a contractor to complete site servicing by the fall of this year, at which time we expect to be repaid in full. At that time, we would have 0 defaults in the commercial and multiresidential portfolio.

Defaults in the single-family mortgage portfolio, which represents 11.9% of the total mortgage portfolio, consisted of only one loan totaling $650,000. So overall, we feel exceptionally comfortable with the quality of the portfolio. Please note that we analyze and risk rate each loan every quarter to make sure we keep on top of any new issues.

Turning to foreclosures. We continue to have 2 foreclosed properties totaling $14.3 million, which is a reduction of $1.8 million from last quarter, as Jennifer mentioned. The first is a fourplex in Leduc and the second is a 90-unit rental project in Regina. The Leduc cost base is $1.1 million, and the cost base in Regina has been reduced from $15 million to $13.2 million. The fourplex in Leduc is 100% leased and was throughout 2021. The occupancy rate in the Regina apartment improved from 80% to 89% during the last quarter. The decision to increase the level of online marketing increased traffic at the property and assisted in reducing the vacancy rate.

However, Regina's rental market is relatively weak with an average vacancy rate of 7.1% across the city. As a result, we decided to write down the carrying costs to a price more reflective of today's market conditions. Notwithstanding the write-down, these properties continued to generate significant distributions to Atrium each quarter.

Our economic commentary is as follows: Economic growth continues to be very strong, with estimated GDP growth of 5.6% in Q1 and a forecast of 4% GDP growth for calendar 2022 as a whole. This growth forecast follows an equally impressive 4.9% growth rate in 2021.

The Bank of Canada recently declared that the economy was moving into excess demand. With very low unemployment and wages rise, not surprisingly, the Bank of Canada overnight rates has risen 75 basis points in the last 45 days and further rate increases are expected for 2022. However, some economists are concerned about the possibility of recession because of rising inflation, which reached to 6.7% in March, the highest in 3 decades.

Historically, the beginning of rate hiking cycles has more often than not proven to be a precursor to a recession. Even the Bank of Canada Governor, Tiff Macklem, acknowledged that engineering a soft landing is not going to be easy. The root of the problem is inflation has proven to be more resilient than previously expected. Keeping inflation expectations well anchored is viewed as critical because otherwise it becomes [ moored ] at a higher level. A 1.5% to 1% rate increase is widely anticipated by the Bank of Canada on June 1, especially after the Fed raised its U.S. benchmark rate by 0.5% on May 4.

Canadian economists expect further rate increases in 2022, which would move the overnight rate currently at 1% past the pre-pandemic level of 1.75%. But some very credible economists still believe that the inflation surge is temporary and will drop sharply in 2023. For example, one respected economist from CIBC recently stated that 65% of inflation that we're now seeing is COVID-related. And I recently heard former Bank of Canada Governor, Steve Poloz, say that up to 75% of current inflation is transitory.

Turning to the real estate markets. In the first quarter, resale and new home markets remained very strong. Looking first at resales, the housing market was exceptionally strong in 2021 and through the first 2 months of 2022. In March, the market slowed very slightly with resales decreasing by 5.4% nationally in part due to a lack of supplies. The national home price was up 1% in March versus a record 3.5% from January to February.

The slowing of price growth nationally in Q1 should not be surprising after a substantial 27% run up in prices last year and indeed since the beginning of the pandemic. In addition, the 5-year mortgage rate is now about 4% per annum, which means that OSFI's stress test is more onerous for purchasers. So most purchasers will have their loans underwritten at a rate of approximately 6%.

In Q1, our 2 target markets, the GTA and Metro Vancouver, neared the national trend. In the GTA, resales slowed in March, although it still represented the third best margin on record. The composite benchmark price closed 34.8% and the average price was up 18.5% on a year-over-year basis.

The different growth rates between the benchmark and the average price reflect a shift in sales in favor of more affordable -- in favor of the more affordable condominium sector. The newly released April results showed a further softening, with sales dropping 20% from last month and the largest declines being detached homes in the suburbs.

In the GTA, benchmark -- the GTA benchmark index in April was down 1.6%, the first monthly decline since October 2020. Interestingly, the City of Toronto rose 1%, the only region to increase within the GTA.

In Metro Vancouver, March sales slowed, but were still 25.5% above the 10-year average for that month. The composite price index was up 20.7% year-over-year and 3.6% from February. In April, sales were down 26% on a monthly basis and the benchmark price was up 1%. Similar to the GTA, the more affordable townhouse and condo sectors were stronger than for detached homes. The lack of supply in Vancouver is less than half of what is estimated to be required to shift the Vancouver market into balanced territory.

The new home markets in Toronto and Vancouver were also very healthy in Q1. In the GTA, on a year-to-date basis, there has been a small 2.1% increase in sales compared to the same period last year. The number of high-rise sales were up 50%, while the low-rise sales saw a decline of 60%, largely due to a lack of inventory. On a year-over-year basis, the high-rise inventory decreased by 26.6%, while the low-rise inventory decreased by almost 54%, for an overall inventory reduction of 31%.

The benchmark price in March of '22 for new low-rise product rose 27.3% on a year-over-year basis, dropped 1.1% in price in February. The benchmark price for new high-rise product was up 17.7% year-over-year and saw a 6.3% month-over-month price increase in March. In Q1 2022, we saw the price gap between low-rise and high-rise begin to narrow. So the trend towards more affordable product is also occurring in the new home market.

The latest information for new home sales in Vancouver is [ rather ] dated Q4 2021. In that quarter, Vancouver saw record-breaking multifamily sales which were 40% higher than Q3. The main driver of the increased multifamily home sales was the strong demand in the South of Fraser submarkets where prices are generally more affordable. The number of sales reported in Q4 exceeded the amount of unsold inventory at the end of the quarter by 1,800 units. The last time this was experienced in Metro Vancouver was in 2016. And total inventory was down 14%.

I think it's fair to conclude that in early Q1, the GTA and Greater Vancouver markets were an overdrive and price increases were accelerated. It appears from the data that the Canadian market peaked in February. With the rise in mortgage rates, the markets have slowed from a very high base. We expect the housing market to continue to cool for the remainder of 2022 and bring the market into balance.

It's worth remembering that offsetting rising mortgage rates is an exceptionally strong economy, a very low unemployment rate and strong demographics, including immigration. There are also no signs of oversupply or overbuilding. In fact, the supply of homes in the resale market amounted to only 1.8 months of inventory across Canada in March.

To summarize, Q1 was another strong quarter for Atrium. In fact, our earnings per share for calendar '21 and for Q1 of '22 have been the highest of our peer group of mix. In addition, our loan portfolio is very clean, with less than 1% of the portfolio being in default.

From a portfolio perspective, we are now exceptionally well positioned to endure a slowdown in the Canadian real estate markets if that happens. Market conditions are still relatively strong, but there are certainly some significant headwinds like inflation, supply chain issues and rising mortgage rates which could dampen housing demand and increase cap rates on commercial real estate. I suspect that by the end of Q2, we will have a much better sense of the direction of the Canadian economy and real estate markets, in particular.

The good news is that we will not have to chase yield in 2022 to show strong earnings. The 50 basis point increase in prime, which occurred in April, will have a very positive effect on our interest revenues given that 62.6% of Atrium's loans are priced on a prime plus basis.

On the liability side, only our floating rate debt -- our only floating rate debt is our $240 million line of credit, which represents 20% to 25% of total liabilities and shareholders' equity. So any increase in prime will produce a net benefit to Atrium's earnings.

We are continuing to build the CMCC team in all areas: origination, finance and mortgage servicing. Between March 28 and today, we've hired 7 new employees who have either just started or will be starting over the next quarter. We're really pleased with the quality of candidates who are interested in working for our company.

With the strength of our team at CMCC and the portfolio in exceptional shape, we're well positioned to have another very good year in 2022. Perhaps more importantly, we're also defensively positioned to withstand the downturn in economic conditions.

Thank you, and we'll be pleased to take any questions from the listeners.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Graham Ryding with TD Securities.

[Graham Ryding, analyst]

So you said roughly 60% of your portfolio is floating rate. So if we see a 50 basis point increase in the prime rate, does that sort of flow through roughly 30 basis points into your portfolio? Or does it happen right away? Or is there any offsets that we should be thinking about?

[Robert G. Goodall, executive]

I think it will be -- because our loan turns over a lot -- I don't think that's a bad assumption, but because our loan turns -- loan portfolio turns over a lot, it could be that all the loans that we get repaid are fixed rate or floating rate or an unusual mix of the 2. I can tell you that with the exception of single-family mortgages, which really needs to be fixed rate, virtually everything we're doing, which will be normally in a normal quarter, 80% to 90% of our originations, those will all be priced off of floating. So they would benefit.

The new loans, 80% to 90% of the new loans will benefit from increases in prime. But it's hard to say with the repayment of loans how it all shakes out in Q2, but there will be a net benefit.

[Graham Ryding, analyst]

Okay. And then what about sort of -- I've heard you talk in the past there has been -- competition is obviously an important factor with that sort of weighted average mortgage rate as well. So what's your sort of feeling on that front in terms of your outlook for the way mortgage rate to move higher here because we've got interest rates going up, but what about the competitive landscape? Any giveback on that front?

[Robert G. Goodall, executive]

Yes, I find it changes a lot. But if you ask me right now what you're asking me, I'd say the competition did less than it did last quarter. I don't know what that means. I don't know if that means the private nonbank lenders may be having more difficulty raising money in this environment, I wouldn't be surprised if they are, which could advantage the 3 public [ mix ] who have obviously permanent capital. So I don't -- our pipeline of business is really strong right now, notwithstanding the market showing the first signs of slowing down.

[Graham Ryding, analyst]

Okay. Understood. And then just, I know it's early days in this sort of rate cycle increase and the market has just softened, I guess, in March and April, but anecdotally or otherwise, are you seeing any slowdown or caution from your developer clients?

[Robert G. Goodall, executive]

Yes. I mean I think low-rise, high-rise doesn't matter. They're seeing a slowdown in -- not so much in launches because you haven't seen too many recent launches, but they're seeing a slowdown in sales of projects that have already launched where they may have been selling 6 units a week and now they're selling half that number. It's not slowed down to a standing stock, but it definitely has slowed down.

We're also seeing some people believing the cap rates are moving up, although any realtor will tell you that hasn't happened yet. And maybe it hasn't. My guess is because the market was so hot, I've always historically found that cap rates narrow between average deals and high-quality deals in a hot market. And with the rising interest rates, I think that buyers are going to be more discriminating and probably continue to pay aggressively for really trophy assets but not pay quite so aggressively for your average assets. So I think cap rates are going to move up as well, but they haven't really moved yet, from what I'm hearing.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back to Mr. Goodall.

[Robert G. Goodall, executive]

Okay. Thank you for attending the conference call. And for those of you who are shareholders, thank you for your continuing interest in the company. I hope you're pleased with our results, I know that we are. Have a good day.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.