Air Canada
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Air Canada
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Air Canada First Quarter 2021 Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Kathleen Murphy. Please go ahead, Ms. Murphy.
Thank you, Mal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our first quarter call. With me this morning are Mike Rousseau, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Amos Kazzaz, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Lucie Guillemette, our Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Craig Landry, our Executive Vice President of operations.On today's call, Mike will begin by providing an overview of the quarter and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and government imposed travel restrictions and our positioning for recovery. Lucie will touch on travel demand, cargo and loyalty; and Amos will provide you with additional details on our costs, liquidity and financial performance before turning it back to Mike; and then opening the call for questions from equity analysts, followed by questions about fixed income analysts.Before we get started, please note that certain statements made on this call are forward-looking within the meaning of applicable securities laws. This call also includes references to non-GAAP measures . Please refer to our first quarter press release and MD&A for important assumptions and cautionary statements relating to forward-looking information for reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to GAAP results. I will now turn it over to Mike.
Great. Thank you, Kathy, and good morning to everyone, and thank you for joining us on our first quarter call. It's a pleasure to speak to everyone today. Although this is my first call as President and Chief Executive Officer of Air Canada, I know all of you very well. Along with Amos and the entire management team, I look forward to continuing and further developing the transparent and positive relationship we have.Also, I look forward to our next Investor Day, hopefully, before the end of 2021, when we can better showcase both the actions we've already taken and the plans we will be implementing to further strengthen our company and our brand.As all of you know, we have built a resilient airline with the goal of being sustainably profitable over the long term. That resilience is enabling us to rebuild our company and serves as a foundation to realize our ambition to remain a leading global carrier and rise higher than ever in our -- in the post-pandemic world.All of us have witnessed the strength and evolution of our culture, which has been exceedingly tested and is carrying us through the crisis. Our employees have shown unbelievable resourcefulness, courage and tenacity. I thank them for their professionalism and all the challenges they continue to brilliantly overcome. I assure them, the analyst community as well as our investors and other stakeholders, that brighter skies are ahead for us in the near future.At present, however, as with all carriers in Canada that pandemic continues to weigh heavily on Air Canada results. We reported first quarter negative EBITDA of $763 million compared to $71 million in the same quarter last year. For comparison, you may recall that last year, COVID did not impact the entire quarter. The pandemic only had a minimal impact in February, that became more pronounced in March, before making itself fully felt in April of 2020. On a GAAP basis, we recorded an operating loss of $1.049 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021.In the quarter, net cash burn amounted to $1.274 billion or approximately $14 million per day on average, lower than previously projected. Net cash burn progressively improved throughout the quarter, although moderately, given the ongoing impact of the pandemic on travel demand, including advanced ticket sales. We had almost $6.6 billion in liquidity at the end of March. Subsequent to this, in April, we finalized a financial package with the government of Canada, primarily comprised of fully repayable loans, which provides access of up to $5.9 billion in additional liquidity, if required.Beyond serving as a layer of insurance, the government package also enables us to better resolve customer refunds for nonrefundable tickets. The refund process with customers is going very well, and we are doing regular outreach to ensure everyone has the necessary information to request a refund.For our customers, safety is our top priority. We were, therefore, very pleased with our COVID-19 CleanCare+ biosafety program earned us, at APEX' Diamond status certification. We were recognized for achieving hospital-grade levels of biosecurity across multiple passenger touch points. The certification program aims to create a global standard for health and safety measures focused on airline customers.[ Priorities ] saving extends to the wellness of our employees as well. We have launched a number of workplace testing and tracing initiatives. We partnered with Bombardier, ADMs, which is the Montréal Airport; and Biron Groupe Santé to open 2 vaccination clinics for our Québec-based employees and their immediate family members near our Montréal headquarters.And most recently, we announced that we are partnering with the Ontario government and the Region of Peel, to open the clinic, facilitating vaccinations later this month for eligible employees and Peel region residents, including immediate family members.In a further sign of our ongoing commitment to employees, we were also named one of Montréal's top employers for the eighth time and one of Canada's best diversity employers for the sixth consecutive year. This shows that despite the severe disruption of the pandemic, we are maintaining our strong employee culture because the collaborative, diverse and inclusive culture is not only right, but it is also essential to our recovery and future success.We continue to pursue various revenue opportunities. Air Canada Cargo has now completed more than 7,500 all-cargo flights since March of last year and over 2,000 this quarter alone. We are building our transformed Aeroplan program, and Lucie will touch on both of these later on the call.We know ESG is becoming a prime consideration and differentiator of companies. To attain sustainability, we are committing to a very ambitious climate action plan and aiming for a target of net 0 greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which will also support Canada's leadership position on climate change.Aim to our emission reductions plans is a renewal of our narrowbody fleet. To this end, we took delivery of 4 Airbus 220 aircraft in the first quarter. The A220 is highly fuel-efficient, producing significant less greenhouse gas emissions than the older aircraft it replaces. It is also extremely popular with customers, offering unmatched comfort for an aircraft of its size.Our investment in the A220 is also an example of our strategic approach going forward. We intend to remain diligent on cost, yet also plan to take smart risks and make strategic investments to position us for the opportunities we see ahead. In this way, we will build upon our numerous competitive advantages we already have, including a widely recognized and powerful brand, strong safety culture, a renewed fleet, new core technologies, a growing cargo division and a newly transformed Aeroplan program, to name a few. With these and the renewed and enhanced focus on the customer experience, we are poised to emerge strongly from the pandemic and compete successfully with the best in the world. With that, I'll turn it over to Lucie.
Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. To start, I would also like to acknowledge the dedication and resilience of our teams across the airline. We've been tested in ways never imagined in our culture and commitment to our customers who have been on display through pandemic. Our people embody our core values and continue to represent the very best of Air Canada.Passenger demand in the first quarter was significantly impacted by the introduction of new layers of travel restriction. These includes requiring all incoming passengers to Canada to provide a negative COVID test prior to boarding and the implementation of mandatory testing upon arrival with an up to 3-day hotel quarantine at the travelers expense while they wait for their test results.These are in addition to the travel restrictions and quarantine measures that have been in place in Canada since the pandemic began. Coinciding with the announcement of this new set of restrictions in the quarter, we agreed to immediately suspend all flights to sun destinations at the request of and to support the government of Canada and its efforts to curb the spread of COVID-19.Combined effect of the additional travel restriction, the cancellation of sun flying, the resurgence of COVID cases in Canada and around the world and the emergence of variance of the virus around the world resulted in an 88% decrease in first quarter passenger revenue compared to the first quarter of 2020.We operated at 82% less capacity in the first quarter in 2020, and 84% less when compared to the first quarter of 2019. Looking to the second quarter, we plan to operate approximately twice the capacity we operated in the same quarter of 2020. This represents a decrease of 84% compared to the second quarter of 2019. As we've done since the onset of the pandemic, we will continue to dynamically adjust capacity as the situation evolves.Looking ahead, we are optimistic about the continued vaccine rollout in Canada and around the world, the guidance supporting vaccinated travel from health agencies, including the CDC and the European Medicines Agency, and the increased adoption and acceptance of vaccine passports.We're confident that the domestic market will lead our recovery, and we have seen relative demand strength in Canada despite interprovincial restrictions and lockdown measures. Specifically, domestic transcontinental long-haul markets continue to show the greatest strength, followed by gains in key [ intra-list ] markets. Once a critical mass of Canadians is vaccinated and the number of COVID cases begin to flatten, which the government's modeling predicts could be this summer, we anticipate restrictions and lockdown measures will begin to be lifted. We expect this will result in an increase in domestic travel demand. We, of course, monitor demand trends very closely in other markets, and we believe Canada will observe similar travel patterns as those of observed in the U.S. once restrictions are eased.Looking internationally, our transatlantic services have been our strongest performing market outside of Canada, led predominantly by resilient visiting friends and families, or VFR traffic as well as U.S. traffic connected to leisure destinations in Europe. We expect these segments to continue to show strength as the health situation improves globally, vaccinated travel becomes more widely accepted and restrictions continue to ease.We continue to seize VFR market opportunities, leveraging strong community and cultural times between certain countries in Canada. These are good markets that we have traditionally served, such as France, the UAE and Morocco, as well as new countries added to our network such as Qatar and Egypt. Although these markets have been negatively impacted by the mandatory hotel quarantine in Canada, early indications are that demand remains resilient throughout the summer.Our new nonstop service from Toronto to Doha in partnership with Qatar Airways has allowed us to access additional VFR markets that we do not serve directly and which have a large Canadian community. Our new nonstop service to Cairo from Montreal launching in June will be supported by the gradual rebuild of our transporter network as we have seen strength in the U.S. traffic connecting to Egypt.Similar to our strategy with Doha, we will look to capture markets beyond Cairo through our codeshare partnership with Egyptair. Our network diversity has been on full display over the course of the pandemic, and through a consorted effort has been one of our competitive advantages. Our ability to tap into U.S. transit traffic illustrates this and will help accelerate our recovery in the short and medium term.In late April we suspended our services to India following the government of Canada's ban on flights from the country until at least May 23. We plan on resuming service as soon as it is safe and we are committed to do so. Of course, India remains an important and strategic market for us.Looking further ahead, we are seeing strong leisure demand in the sun markets through the winter as Canadians begin to eagerly anticipate their first holiday since the onset of the pandemic. Demand from Canada is especially strong to Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Hawaii and Florida.Now as part of the government's financial package, we've made several commitments, including customer refunds and reinstating service to regional community. Even before this package was finalized, we had already refunded more than $1.2 billion to eligible customers. In line with our commitment to government and our customers, in mid April, we began offering eligible customers who purchased nonrefundable fairs through the option of a refund. To support our travel agency partners who have also been significantly impacted by this crisis, we are not recalling agency sales commission for refunding tickets.In addition, we have revised our booking policies for all future travel with more options for customers when a flight is canceled or rescheduled. This policy change will provide certainty and flexibility, so customers can book their future travel with greater confidence.We're also progressing on our commitment to reinstate access to regional communities, where service was suspended due to COVID-19 pandemic, either directly through our network or new [ internal ] agreements with third-party carriers.Looking to Aeroplan's performance in the first quarter, member engagement and activity continued to show resiliency. Unsurprisingly, total points sold remained down year-over-year, driven primarily by reduced points issued on air and hotel partnership. Co-brand credit card spend continues to show upside from the 2020 lows and with approximately 80% of last year's level for the first quarter of 2021. However, card spend performance has not improved from Q4 2020, as the most recent wave of COVID-19 lockdowns has stunted the recent spend recovery trend.Shareholders remain engaged overall with card retention rates in line with historical norms. When we designed the program, our members told us they wanted more opportunities to earn and redeem points in their everyday lives. In March, we announced the first of a kind partnership with Starbucks Canada, allowing members to earn and redeem Aeroplan points while enjoying their favorite Starbucks beverages and snacks. This new partnership is another example of our commitment to rewarding all travelers, both frequent and occasional, and it has been very well received with the number of members linking their Aeroplan and Starbucks account and outperforming our launch targets.While we remain highly selective in who we add to our partner roster, we are actively engaged in conversations to bring more opportunities for our members to engage with the program. As Aeroplan's relaunched in November, we are seeing strong customer take-up of our point plus cash combination payment option as well as rent fair upsell. These are 2 new features available when redeeming for site awards and additional evidence that the enhanced program provides more choice and value for our members, while also improving the profitability of site rewards.Finally, as part of our ongoing commitment to deliver value and flexibility to our most loyal members, we announced that we are automatically extending Aeroplan Elite Status for an additional year until the end of 2022 as well as extended the validity of prior reward vouchers. These changes are some of the many ways we're demonstrating our commitment to welcoming our members back on board.Early in the pandemic, we were quick to move into cargo operation, which continued to deliver excellent results to the hard work of our cargo team. Our cargo revenue of $281 million in the first quarter, represented an increase of $132 million or 89% compared to the same quarter in 2020, and an increase of 59% versus the same quarter in 2019. By the end of 2021, we plan to have 2 Boeing 767 freighters operating on international cargo routes. These traders represent an opportunity to continue building on the success of our cargo-only flights and are an important part of our recovery in long-term growth.Freighter operations will complement our passenger network and provide long-term stability and growth for our largest cargo customers, including freight forwarders who require reliable airfreight capacity year round. We will optimize our capacity and routes using a combination of freight aircraft, our [ weekend trip cabin loaded ] aircraft and the [ daily ] space in our passenger network.In March, we launched our e-commerce platform, Rivo. This program and cooperation with local retailers takes advantage of our domestic passenger network, facilitating the end-to-end distribution of e-commerce groups across Canada and offers logistics and delivery solutions for online retailers that are simply faster and easier to use than what is available to Canadian online shoppers today. This is exciting for us and illustrates our ability to innovate, while also leveraging our existing assets to capture unique revenue opportunities.Our simplified modern and efficient fleet is well-structured to capture network opportunities once we begin to gradually rebuild. Our Boeing 787 aircraft remains the cornerstone of our international fleet, serving the hub-hub routes in select core markets that make up our current skeleton network. Within North America, we continue to take deliveries of the Airbus 220 and welcome more of our Boeing 737 MAX fleet back into service. These aircrafts represent the backbone of our fleet and will enable the redevelopment of our network, effectively serving domestic transborder and international markets from our 3 strong Canadian hubs with a consistent onboard product.Throughout the pandemic, we've demonstrated industry leadership in developing our CleanCare+ program and have undertaken several medical collaborations to continue advancing biosafety across the customer journey and our business. This enhanced focus on health and biosafety is going to remain a core component of our customer experience and our efforts throughout the pandemic positions us at the forefront of the industry.In addition, investments we made in technology prior to the pandemic, including our new reservation system and our transport [indiscernible] program, are now fully implemented. These enhancements are going to transform how we interact with our customers throughout our recovery and well into the future.With the foundational elements in place, including the key investments we have made in our fleet, our product and our customer experience as well as our ability to see unique revenue opportunities through Aeroplan, cargo and a new market, we are primed for recovery, and all of us here at Air Canada look forward to welcoming our customers back on board.With that, I will pass it on to Amos.
Thank you, Lucie, and good morning, everyone. I would also like to echo Mike and Lucie's comments, and thank our employees for their dedication and hard work during these extremely challenging times. I'll start by touching on our costs. Operating expenses were well controlled in the quarter. On a capacity reduction of 82%, operating expenses decreased almost $2.4 billion or 57% from the same quarter last year. This reflected the lower volume of flying, given the COVID-19 pandemic and the significant progress being made on managing variable costs and reducing fixed expenses.You may recall that we completed a cost reduction and capital reduction and deferral program in 2020 as part of our COVID-19 mitigation and recovery plan, which reached $1.7 billion. Although we are no longer reporting on this program, we continue to seek additional opportunities for cost reduction and cash preservation. An example of this was the recent revision to our capacity purchase agreement with Jazz. This revised agreement is expected to deliver $400 million in cost reductions over 15 years. As a part of the revised agreement, the operations of the Embraer 175 aircraft are transformed to Jazz, and Jazz becomes the exclusive Air Canada Express operator, allowing us to achieve operational efficiencies and reduce operating costs and cash burn. Furthermore, of course, we will removed all 19 Dash 8-300 aircraft from the Jazz fleet by the end of this year, which will contribute to reducing operating costs.Turning to certain major expense categories in the quarter, beginning with wages and salaries and benefits. They declined $268 million or 34% in the first quarter on a lower level of employees, following the major management and frontline workforce reductions affected in 2020. Aircraft maintenance expense decreased $120 million or 44% from the first quarter of 2020, on a lower volume of maintenance activity due to reduced flying year-over-year and the retirement of certain older aircraft from the fleet. A decrease in maintenance provisions resulting from the updated end-of-lease cost estimates in anticipation of returning aircraft to lessors was also a factor. We recorded special items amounting to a net operating expense reduction of $127 million. This included a net benefit of $163 million related to the Canada emergency wage subsidy, or CEWS program, which has supported the airline retaining a workforce in excess of capacity levels. We plan to continue to participate in this program, which is expected to be extended to September 2021, subject to meeting eligibility requirements.Special items also included an impairment charge of $20 million pertaining to the ongoing adjustments related to the fleet retirement program as well as a $12.5 million fee related to the termination of Air Canada's arrangement agreement with Transact.Turning to liquidity. In the first quarter of 2021, we continue to take actions to support our liquidity position. In January, we announced the partial exercise of an over-allotment option in connection with an offering of Air Canada shares completed in December. This resulted in net proceeds of $60 million. In March, we concluded a committed secured facility totaling USD 475 million to finance the purchase of the remaining 15 Airbus A220 aircraft scheduled for delivery in '21 and 2022.We also extended our USD 600 million and CAD 200 million revolving credit facilities by 1 year to April 2024 and December 2023, respectively. At the end of March, unrestricted liquidity amounted to nearly $6.6 billion. In April, we substantially increased our available liquidity through a series of debt and equity financing agreements with the government of Canada. In addition to the gross proceeds of $500 million from an equity investment, the financial package allows us to access up to $5.4 billion in debt financing through fully repayable loans that we would draw down if and as required, comprised of a 5-year $1.5 billion secured revolving credit facility maturing in April 2026, which is secured on a first lien basis by the assets of Aeroplan, Inc. and certain Air Canada assets relating to Aeroplan. Unsecured loans of $2.475 billion in the form of 3 non-revolving credit facilities of $825 million each, maturing in April 2026, April 2027 and April 2028, respectively; and a 7-year $1.4 billion unsecured credit facility for refunds of nonrefundable tickets.Note that the refunds will generally be cash neutral to Air Canada's liquidity position. Our unencumbered asset pool amounted to approximately $1.7 billion at the end of the quarter. This pool excludes the value of Aeroplan, Air Canada Vacations and Air Canada Cargo. As part of our ongoing efforts to maintain adequate liquidity levels, additional financing arrangements continue to be assessed and may be pursued.Moving on to cash burn. In the first quarter of '21, our net cash burn was $1.274 billion or approximately $14 million per day on average, lower than what was previously anticipated. This included $2 million per day in net capital expenditures and $4 million per day in lease and debt service costs. The improvement in net cash burn from what we previously projected was attributable to a combination of higher-than-anticipated operating earnings, favorable timing on working capital and the deferred settlement of aircraft lease returns.Looking ahead at the second quarter, we estimate net cash burn of between $13 million to $15 million per day on average. This net cash burn projection includes $2 million per day in capital expenditures, net of financing; and $5 million per day in lease and debt service costs. Compared to the first quarter, second quarter 2021 includes approximately $1 million per day in higher scheduled debt principal repayments, an increase in end-of-lease payments due to the more aircraft being returned to lessors and reflects the continuing impact of the pandemic on travel demand.Given the ongoing impact of the pandemic on earnings and advanced ticket sales, we don't expect net cash burn to meaningfully improve until government communicates and implements a reopening plan for Canada.For the second quarter, our net cash burn projection excludes the amount of expected eligible refunds of nonrefundable fares being processed pursuant to the change in the refund policy we announced on April 12. We estimate that the maximum exposure to cash refunds for all eligible customers holding nonrefundable tickets is approximately $2 billion. While it is difficult to predict the number of customers who will request a cash refund for nonrefundable tickets, based on past experience and our current observations since the change in refund policy, we expect cash refunds to be substantially less than $2 billion as certain customers will choose to retain their travel voucher.Lastly, turning to pensions. The aggregate solvency surplus in our Canadian-defined pension plans was $3 billion at the beginning of this year, an increase of $400 million for the pension solvency surplus in these plans on January 1, 2020.Before I turn it back to Mike, I would like to offer, once again, a heartfelt thank you to our employees for their unwavering efforts. I am confident that better times are ahead of us. I would also like to acknowledge the upcoming retirement of Kathy Murphy, who will be leaving us at the end of this month after 39 years of loyal and dedicated service. I know that many of you have had the pleasure of working with Kathy over the last several years. Please join us in wishing her best in her retirement. I will now turn it over to Mike.
Thank you, Amos. As you heard today and have seen in our response to COVID-19 throughout the past year, Air Canada is effectively managing through the pandemic. We are doing this not only from a defensive perspective, but also making strategic investments that will improve our relative competitiveness. This is largely due to the prudent measures we took long before COVID's onset. We spent a decade creating a resilient airline with a strong can-do culture. This included accumulating a large liquidity cushion in case of a prolonged business disruptions. As well, we acted very quickly early in the pandemic. We took difficult and decisive actions to cut costs and reduce our network. For those who continue to fly, we put in place effective biosafety measures, moving well ahead of government on such things as a requirement for passengers to wear masks and put pre-flight temperature checks.We initiated a third-party research with McMaster HealthLabs and the GTAA to find the most effective use of testing and quarantine to limit COVID spread. And we have partnered with scientific organizations, such as Cleveland Clinic and with the industry through the Creative Destruction Labs to share and apply the most current scientific knowledge.We understand and acknowledge that Canada is in the middle of a very difficult third wave. However, there is cautious optimism given the increasing vaccination rate that we are nearing an inflection point in a pandemic. And as a result, we believe Canada must plan next steps. It is time to develop and communicate a reopening plan for international travel to and from Canada.After over 14 months of restrictions, Canadians who we know are eager to travel, want and deserve clear guidelines. They want to know when they will be able to travel internationally again and under what protocols. They are seeing other countries articulate clear and safe plans, and they want to hear what Canada's plan will be. For these reasons, we along with others have been consulting regularly with the federal government as well as export advisory panels here and worldwide to provide recommendations and advice on how to safely open up travel. For example, the current mandatory hotel quarantine for arrivals has proven ineffective. It should be eliminated. In addition, based on the experience of public health authorities in most G7 countries, we believe that with a vaccination program now underway nationally, a modified and more relevant approach to testing and quarantine would keep Canadians safe while allowing our country to reopen for international travel.Apart from our country's needs are satisfying the desires of individuals to reconnect with family and friends, the government of Canada must act because air transport is a central pillar in the nation's infrastructure. A multicultural trading nation like Canada needs a healthy aviation sector.Prior to COVID-19, Air Canada by itself had an almost 2% GDP economic footprint. It directly supported almost 40,000 high-paying jobs, plus another 190,000 jobs indirectly in the critical aerospace sector. For all these reasons, we just spoke about, Canada needs to develop and communicate in the international travel reopening plan. Air Canada working with many travel partners will continue to provide relevant input and push for these next steps as we safely emerge from the pandemic.Thank you, and we are now ready for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Cameron Doerksen from National Bank Financial.
Congratulations, Kathy, on your retirement. I just had a question about the -- I guess the cash refunds. And I wondering if you can maybe just talk a little bit about, I guess, the take-up so far, what you've seen as far as people asking for cash or for sticking with their vouchers? Or you've also got a fairly attractive, I guess, Aeroplan option as well. So what's been the -- what have you seen so far as far as the actual cash refunds?
Cameron, it's Amos. Thanks for dialing in. So we're actually a bit surprised. The take-up has been much slower than anticipated given, of course, all of the news we have seen and all of the commentary as such. So right now, it's a slow uptick. We're continuing to actively reach out to customers proactively, reminding them that they have tickets that are eligible for refunds. Been working with the trades, working with the travel agency communities and the like. So we continue to push, but we're sort of surprised again at a slow take-up on that.
Okay. That's helpful. And just secondly for me. I just wonder if you can discuss a little bit what you're seeing for bookings maybe later in the year when I think most people would sort of assume that they might be able to travel internationally again? Are you seeing any significant increases there as far as interest, I guess, later in this year or maybe even into the early part of 2022?
It's Lucie. We definitely are -- in fact, separate [ draft ] Q4, Q1 from what we're observing in Q3. But certainly for the fourth and first quarter of 2022, we're definitely seeing a strong base for bookings to fund destinations, so the Caribbean, Hawaii, Florida and. So definitely, we're seeing customers assuming that by the time we reach Q4, the first quarter, that travel restrictions will be somewhat eased. So definitely, we're seeing a good appetite there for bookings. And then looking at the third quarter, as you know, much of our efforts as we move forward is in the VFR and leisure space. So we are seeing some good uptake for our international markets in the summer peak, and also a good base and very encouraging advanced bookings as it pertains to our [ fixed medium ] traffic, so traffic originating out in the U.S. So definitely, as we look further down, the signs are positive, the signs are positive.
A following question is from Hunter Keay from Wolfe Research.
Lucie, can you -- I appreciate the comparison you made to your expectation that demand will pick up like it did in the U.S. once vaccines roll out. But how does the seasonal difference and the timing of that factor into that comment? Like, if infectious dieses, as people are going back-to-school, for example, does that just push out that demand recovery? Even though the trajectory might be the same, does it push out the timing of it maybe into the early part of next year if that vaccine progress occurs later in the summer going into the fall?
I think the first -- it's an interesting comment because, obviously, we observe trends in other markets to inform us as well in terms of what can happen in Canada once some of the restrictions ease. There's no doubt that our view is this summer peak, as we know, it will probably push out a little bit into September and October. Traditionally, July and August, obviously, are peak, peak months. But we do assume that some of that will push out a little bit into September and October.And then with respect to corporate travel, which is obviously one area that we're watching very, very closely, that, I think, will be probably something that we'll start to see in Q3 -- late Q3, with the Labor Day. We don't believe that we'll see any of that in the closer term. But there's no doubt from a seasonal point of view, we'll be well poised to capture the strong leisure demand in the fourth quarter for the sun routes. But certainly, Europe, for sure, will push into September, October in our view.
I got you. And then -- and on that point, my follow-up is, is there any data points you can share with us, Lucie, on corporate? Obviously, at this point, we're all just talking about intentions to travel. But can you give us any data points that you've quantified through survey work or the like around how you expect corporate to spool up?
Corporate? Yes. So basically, we see some SME demand in the current environment. But our assumption is really that the corporate demand will most likely return in the September time frame, post Labor Day and, obviously, will be largest for us in the domestic sector. But basically, our assumption is it will be in the September window.
And that's -- and Lucie, that's based on -- and Hunter that's based on constant discussions with our largest corporate customers, which we're constantly in contact with.
Our following question is from Savi Syth from Raymond James.
I'm just curious, as summer demand comes back and if it's strong and the kind of the restrictions are lifted, how much could you kind of ramp your capacity back up in the third and fourth quarter kind of relative to 2019 levels?
I think -- Savi, it's Mike. I'll start with that. So we're spending a lot of time running different scenarios as to bringing back aircraft and bringing back people to -- and again, to Lucie's earlier comment, we are certainly monitoring other markets. U.S. is obviously ahead of us, as to how fast [ employments ] moved up over the last couple of months. And so we are prepared certainly to deal with that type of step function and capacity increases in a fairly short order. We've kept all our pilots recent and with rotation, and they're still on staff. We're certainly keeping all our planes fully operational, although some of them are parked in the desert, as most airlines have. But we're certainly ready to add capacity fairly quickly. And also Savi, to a large degree, we're also spending a lot of time with our partners, airports, government agencies to ensure that they can also step up to capacity to ensure that we provide the best possible customer experience for that returning customer.
So then theoretically, you could get back to 100%, if that was necessary? Or is that kind of an upper limit on how much we are...
I don't think so. It depends what time frame, but I think it's going to take us a little longer to get back to 100%. We would love to have that challenge. But we don't think -- based on trends in other countries, like U.S., obviously, which is watching closely, we don't see that happening.
Makes sense. And then if I might, second question. Just if you look a little bit medium to longer-term and kind of going off a little bit on Hunter's question on business, but if you look at your fleet retirement and then kind of the configuration of the new aircraft coming in and perhaps some of the cost enhancements that you've done, like how much of a loss of the premium traffic can the business model handle and still generate the margins that you were heading towards kind of pre crisis? And I'm guessing this is mostly kind of premium business demand that might be lost in terms of the number of trips people take.
No, it's a fascinating question. Something we've been talking about internally quite a bit. And again, I'm not going to debate whether all business traffic comes back over a period of time and -- versus x percent. There are a number of studies out there that indicate a range of numbers, basically. But we're reasonable, certainly, we've downsized our fleet. And so that does take into consideration that there'll be less traffic overall. And as we said before on these calls, we've taken a fairly defensive position on our fleet, and we will go search for new planes, whether new or leased, to fill gaps, if required. So I think we're well positioned to be flexible on the business side. We do although believe business will come back, and we are seeing indications in out of the U.S. and certainly, speaking to our corporate customers that there is a pent-up demand for business as well, frankly. And we do see it recovering, maybe -- certainly a little bit later than VFR, but certainly, we do see strong indications that we'll recover. I'll turn it over to Lucie to provide some more color.
Yes. And, Mike, if I can add. When you look at it from our fleet perspective, we're actually in a better position given the LOPAs that we have. So if you look at the size of our cabins, not only just on an narrow-body fleet, but on our wide-body fleet, we actually have the best LOPA to be able to deal with the fact that this demand might take a little bit longer to recover. In fact, in years past, if we go back to 2018, 2019 and the peak of the strength, we were actually looking at scenarios where perhaps we would need to relook at our LOPAs in the premium cabins on our wide-body airplanes. So the fact that we are sitting with the fleet, we are now looking at what they [ hit ] for us, we're actually in a pretty good position. And needless to say, in some of these VFR markets that we talk about, there is opportunity as well for premium traffic for leisure demand and things that we haven't really focused on in the past that we are certainly want to focus on in the future. So there may be a different mix. But certainly, the LOPAs we have, we're actually in a very good position. And that's both narrow-body and wide-body fleets.
The following question is from Chris Murray from ATB Capital Markets.
Kathy, let me echo my congratulations on your retirement. I guess moving on, just thinking about the tourism and leisure business, now that the transaction is gone. When you think about Rouge, when it was originally created, there was a lot of thoughts around creating a stand-alone dedicated travel arm. But you've also pulled down a lot of capacity there. How do we think about the future of Rouge with Transat probably still as a competitor? And how do you integrate that with the rest of the company?
Well, certainly, there's definitely a future for Rouge here. As it stands, our plans are on the narrow-body fleet. So basically, for the leisure markets to reinstate service in September. And of course, the fact that we retired -- or that I should say, moved the 767s to cargo, we don't have the 767 planned for Rouge on the international market. But there are definitely in the current network and certainly, when we look at the future, the type of traffic that we're going to look to capture, there's definitely an opportunity for Rouge, and it's fully our intention to keep it as part of our mix.
Yes. And Chris, just to add to that, again, the focus will be on the narrow-body into the Caribbean and some markets, but we will also continue to move passengers through major hubs in Europe and working with our partners as well. And so we think we can capture both those customer elements without 767 program in place.
Okay. This is maybe a little bit of a longer-term question. But looking at your CapEx forecast, it's kind of interesting to see kind of 24, 25 is essentially maintenance capital at that. But going back and thinking about fleet and where you may want to go, I think about -- I was looking at the traffic data from around SARS back in 2002 and 2003 and '04, and the capacity came back really, really fast with the demand. So how do we think about your ability or your thought process around adding additional capacity? And I'm thinking about this from maybe having the reset in the thoughts around free cash flow and the balance on what you can do with the existing fleet. And what would be some of the indicators that we should be thinking about before you want to start adding additional aircraft?
Well, another very interesting question on long term planning. And like I said before, I think we've got a fair amount of flexibility. We have -- we're basically through our refleeting program, both for wide-bodies and narrow-bodies. We're not that far away from getting the 220s in place and the MAX in place. And we will have an unbelievably efficient fleet to exit the pandemic. We have options available on MAX and on 220s. We have -- and certainly, we can go source planes once we see indicators of growth beyond our expectations. And our current fleet does have -- certainly have the ability to recover the majority of ASMs we moved in 2019. As you saw, probably from the fleet table, Chris, that we'll probably keep our 319s a little bit longer than we expect. That's kind of our sweet fleet as well that provides us, again, additional flexibility because most of those planes are owned, and so we can continue with those for several years and take advantage of capacity growing faster than what we've anticipated, which, again, like I said earlier, it'd be a very nice problem to have. So I think we've done a pretty good job covering ourselves for growth beyond our expectations. But certainly, also for -- even further fine-tuning and potentially getting rid of the 319s, if the market doesn't come back as fast as -- as we wanted to. That gives us the opportunity, Chris, to then step into potentially new types of aircraft, like the 321 LRs, for example, that we like, that have -- certainly have -- potentially have a place in the Air Canada's fleet as we go forward. So I think positioning for that flexibility was critical from our perspective, and it gives us a little bit of time to look carefully as to what plane type best fits the evolving business model that we'll experience over the next couple of years.
Okay. Just maybe a quick update. If we were thinking about kind of getting back to, call it, 80% to 90% of 2019 levels, what should we be thinking about as maintenance CapEx for the company?
I think maintenance CapEx, and this would include everything non aircraft, I'll start with non-aircraft, $500 million, $600 million a year. A lot of that to do with technology. We certainly see technology as a critical enabler in improving our customer experience as we go forward and our efficiencies as we go forward. And then from a plane perspective, assuming growth of a couple percent or improvements in ESG, another $500 million, $600 million on top of that basically, either through leased or through acquisition.
Our following question is from Tim James from TD Securities.
I just want to ask a question regarding -- and Mike, your commentary on sort of hopes, I guess, for government communication, I think were quite interesting. And I'm just wondering, have you got any sense from the government on what level of new cases, what vaccination percentage, hospital capacity or any other factors would allow for changes to travel restrictions? Or are you kind of literally going to show up 1 day and find out they're about to change? Or can you kind of look out, make your own projections on some of these factors and then say, okay, we think we're going to get to this point at this time, and therefore, here is when we kind of start ramping?
The short answer to that is we don't have a direct sign from the Canadian government as to what triggers are reopening. I think you've read in the media recently, some indications of vaccination levels, for example, being critical, obviously. And our discussions with Canadian government are obviously exploring that situation, but also making sure that we can communicate well before that to customers that those restrictions are coming off basically. So customers can book, and we can call back employees and we can bring back the aircraft. So we're ready for that type of situation. And we look to other countries, like, for example, the U.K., issued a reopening plan back in mid-April, which has a number of days, which could move depending on the situation, depending on a third wave or increases in case loads. But we're advocating with our Canadian government. That's something that we should look at to provide clarity as we go forward, basically. We just saw it recently with Saskatchewan, that provided some step process. And although that doesn't deal directly with travel, I think that's a good first step from our perspective. And so we are spending, along with other key travel partners, a fair amount of time with the Canadian government and having positive discussions on that topic and how to move forward.
Okay. My next question is around pricing, maybe for Lucie here. I guess how are you thinking about the pricing decision going forward as demand comes back? And I'm thinking about how desperate some people may be to travel and willing to pay virtually any fare versus the need for stimulating some confidence in maybe other travelers with lower fares?
It's the magical question, but there's a couple of things here. There's no doubt that as we start our recovery here, the general elements that we work with, for example, how we have potential to yield up based on load factors, that kind of thing, those -- this is a little bit more difficult in this kind of environment. From a pricing standpoint, you're right, in some markets, we will definitely see a surge in demand where this demand is perhaps less price sensitive. And we will definitely do what we need to do there to hold the pricing. But in the leisure space, we expect that the environment will be far more competitive and also given the fact that the load factors will build over time. What gives me confidence is that, number one, we have the right tools to be able to manage that because a lot of these flows will come from different points of sales, different countries. So we'll still have really good tools to help us do that, so we can actually manage the yield to the best of our ability. And we also have different levers that are disposal, like branded fares, for example, even some opportunities with the Aeroplan program to be able to hold on to the pricing where we can. So the fact that we have different levers gives me confidence that we're going to be able to manage the different market segments. But there's no doubt in this kind of environment that we try to rebuild all carriers, particularly the Canadian carriers have a lower load factor that you can expect the environment to be competitive. But certainly, when there are peak travel periods and we have the ability to yield up, we will absolutely do that, no question do that.
Okay. And then just my final question, and I'm sure you can't quantify this too specifically. But I'm just wondering if you could characterize your booking assumption that's embedded in your cash burn guidance for the second quarter? I don't know whether it's relative to Q1, just directionally or if you expect much of a an improvement as the quarter progresses. Just any kind of color you could provide on the booking assumption?
Yes, Tim, it's Amos. Really, it's fairly much the same, not much improvement, given the third wave that we've seen here, the additional lockdowns. And certainly, when you look at the stoppage of service to India. So all of those played a factor in looking at the cash burn numbers.
A following question is from Fadi Chamoun from BMO Capital Market.
Congrats on your retirement, Kathy, and all the best. So a couple of questions. First, how much of capacity can you ramp up given potentially snap back in demand once the restriction are eased? How much capacity can you ramp up quickly with the current resources that you have, especially in terms of crews and pilots? And then if you can give us kind of an idea of how you manage the bottlenecks? Like how much ahead of time when you need to start recalling and retraining in order to kind of ramp up the demand after that?
So Fadi, it's Mike. So let's start with what we currently have in place. As you can see from our financial statements, we're running load factors that are fairly low. So right away, there's a hedge in place on the existing infrastructure that we could increase the load factors. So without recalling anybody, frankly, at the end of the day or without bringing back any more planes. That provides us the cushion to some degree to then manage next step to what it steps up to. As I was saying earlier, we've been closely following how the U.S. employments have been increasing by 10%, 20% over a month or 2 months basically. And certainly, within that time frame, we're very, very comfortable in bringing back people and bringing back planes to satisfy the booking curve that would step up at that point in time. So again, kind of a 2-step process at a very high level. We have existing capacity right now, and then that provides us adequate time to bring back, based on the booking curves, people and planes basically.To the earlier question, there's no way we could probably bring back 100% over that period of time. But certainly, we do not expect that to happen. And if the U.S. is in the example, we can easily bring back capacity in those increments.
Okay. And how do you kind of think about the time, advanced time you need to bring back resources like crews and pilots with you?
Yes. I mean pilots -- right now, we haven't laid off pilots or furloughed pilots. So they're still on our payroll and being -- going through training, basically in rotating. So that is not a constraint from our perspective. Bringing back flight attendance is a fairly straightforward process. You recall them and you put them through a couple of days of training to reacquaint them with the rules. So those are 2 critical roles. And then, of course, as I said earlier, the planes are being well maintained in their -- where they're being parked right now, and so bringing them back is not going to be a constraining factor either.
Okay. My second question on the liquidity and capital on the balance sheet side. So you've ended March at 6.5%, and you ultimately have this agreement with the government. You've got kind of $500 million of equity and then $1.5 billion of low interest loans kind of immediately. I mean it looks like with potentially demand starting to recover a little bit later this year and into 2022, that should be kind of good liquidity cushion. I just wanted to get your thoughts on 2 things. One is the kind of financing going forward more towards kind of the debt maturity management? And are you comfortable with the kind of split debt of equity that you did with the most recent financing with the Canadian government?
Yes. So Fadi, it's Amos. Yes, we're -- certainly the government liquidity package provides good liquidity and insurance for us as we go forward. But we'll continue to look at our capital structure from managing the debt maturities and trying to continue to push those out as the opportunities arise. And then I think as we continue to look at managing liquidity and balance sheet going forward, at this point, as we look at any other opportunities, we'll continue to assess and monitor the market. And if there's something that makes sense to step into or to take advantage of that would help the structure, we will do so.
Yes. Fadi, certainly, our focus will be more on debt. We have stepped into the equity markets a couple of times over the last 12 months. So that was a conscious effort to manage our long-term balance sheet. But certainly, the debt markets are available to us for future financing if required.
Following question is from Konark Gupta from Scotiabank.
I echo my congrats to Kathy. So maybe first to begin with, perhaps with [indiscernible] if you, at this time, if you were to rank your 5 segments in terms of capacity recovery, whenever that happens till later this year, where would you put them? I heard some destinations and leisure markets being the top. But I guess if you were to look at the segments, how would you rank those, please?
On the 5 different segments, in terms of -- first to recover. I think certainly, domestic is #1. It really depends on restrictions. But U.S., maybe #2, along with the sun markets, transatlantic, roughly the same time. I think last is probably Asia.
Okay. That makes sense, Mike. And then on the Q2 cash burn. So the guidance is kind of steady versus Q1. And I think you guys are calling for debt lease service costs being up as well as I think end of lease payment is also going up in Q2. However, CapEx seems flat and capacity is going up slightly versus Q1. How should we think about revenue and cost and the wage subsidy? Like, do they -- do you kind of assume them as relatively steady versus Q1, which is kind of the underlying assumption for flattish cash burn in Q1? And then do you also assume that the $400 million debt maturity that is due -- was due in April, that is excluded from the cash?
So a couple of points there. Yes, for the most part, it is really steady from what we see here in the first quarter as we don't see much in terms of demand, given again, the third wave that we're experiencing in Canada and the other capacity reductions we've taken into account. So all that sort of is factored into the cash burn. Same with the CEWS subsidy and also essentially more of the same through the third quarter. As you know, the CEWS program was extended, not yet fully approved through September. But subject to eligibility requirements, we'll be protecting through that through the quarter.
The debt that we paid back in mid-April is excluded from the cash burn, also the $400 million unsecured U.S. that we just paid back.
Okay. And then I think it's kind of a long picture, and it's, again, kind of beating the dead horse on the long-term outlook, which it's very hard to predict, I guess, at this point. But based on what you know, Mike, today, including the scheduled lifting off of restrictions across various markets, be it India or some destinations or U.S. transborder, what is your sense on the timing of cash breakeven? I know it's a hard question. But just if you were to pinpoint to a time frame, where would you put that? And assuming you're excluding lump sum maturities and refunds that will be funded through the government loan?
Listen, Konark, it's a fair question. And we have spent an incredible amount of time just not planning from an operational perspective to bring back capacity, but also from a financial perspective. We've done an incredible job taking out costs and lowering that breakeven point, as we talked about before. Again, a lot -- it all depends on the government lifting restrictions and which markets do they open up. Certainly, the U.S. and transatlantic are very, very important to us, given our exposure to those markets. If those markets open up towards this summer or later this summer, then the breakeven point will happen quicker, basically. But I hate to answer your question with a conditional, but it has to be that way, frankly, is that we do know and certainly we will let the market know once restrictions are open as to when we believe we can breakeven. But it's, again, depending on how fast market comes back and what are the reductions in restrictions? And we're speaking to the Canadian government obviously about different protocols for vaccinated passengers versus unvaccinated passengers. And so there is so many different components involved with this that we've factored in. But again, we're comfortable that once restrictions are open and countries are also open up to Canada, which is the other situation, that we'll be able to express the market fairly quickly when we should breakeven.
Yes. That's a fair point, Mike. And just to that point, if I can clarify. If you have any stance as to a lot of people and sort of the younger people between 18 and 40, they are about to get their first vaccine dose shortly and probably the second dose in September or so. So like is it fair to expect that like late Q4 time frame is the first period when you might see the beginning of the sort of recovery in leisure markets, at least be it sun destinations or Europe, international or India or wherever?
No. We think we'll see a little bit earlier than that. As Lucie said, I think probably late summer. We're not going to probably get the summer peak this year in July or August. As Lucie said, we're probably going we pushed the right a bit. But we will start seeing -- and again, as you know, in this business, advanced bookings are critical. And so as these restrictions get lifted and a plan is put in place by the Canadian government and communicates to Canadians, we will see bookings go up, and that will be our first indication of our ability to breakeven and what point we will breakeven, frankly. And so again, as we've said today, Q1 was -- Q1 and Q2 is not going to be much different. But we've got a lot of work to do in Q2 to work with the Canadian government to ensure that we can communicate a reopening plan and so that we can start seeing advanced bookings come in and then we can provide better clarity to the market as to where the breakeven point is.
Following question is from Stephen Trent with Citigroup.
2 quick ones from me. First off, now that the Transat acquisition is off the table, have you seen sort of any adjustments in competitors' body language?
No. I mean Transat is still shut down for the most part. I don't think they're opening up until a month from now, roughly, late June. So we have really not -- and obviously, they're still open for bookings, but we have not seen any change in behavior.
Okay. Great. And just one other quick question. I know as part of the agreement with the Canadian government that you'll be servicing some specific routes. But with respect to domestic route openings or closings, because of the agreement, is there any extra layer of consideration or any sort of approval you might need beyond just Canadian aviation regulators for other domestic capacity adjustments?
No, no, Stephen. No, we're fully able to operate whichever way we feel best suits our objectives. We did commit to the Canadian government that we would reopen a number of small regional routes either through interline or direct, and we'll put those in place in due course basically. But other than that, there is no other limitation or obligation for us on our operations.
Congrats to you, Kathy. And Amos, looking forward to Tuesday.
Following question is from Kevin Chiang from CIBC.
Congrats, Kathy, on your retirement, all the best. I personally thank you for all the help through the years here. Maybe, Mike, if I could ask the question on corporate customers. I know you don't want to debate how much comes back, if it all comes back. But you just in annoying maybe how your conversations have evolved over the past 6 to 9 months? In terms of conversations would have had, maybe middle of last year in terms of maybe how much permanent decline in demand some of your corporate customers might have thought 9 months ago versus maybe what they're thinking today as we've been locked at home for the better part of 14 months here in Canada?
In the discussions, in fact, that we've had with that Corporate Canada, probably one of the biggest indicators for them was how they approached work from home. And many corporations in their corporate travel policies basically indicated that as long as their employees were working from home, they were really restricted in terms of their ability to travel for purposes of business. What we're seeing now, though, is there's definitely an appetite for corporate Canada to return to travel. The biggest deterrent, of course, as we know, and Mike talked about, easing the restrictions. But from a corporate perspective, it's really the quarantine requirement that obviously is the biggest deterrent. But I think based on the indications that we're getting from Corporate Canada, the only thing that may be a little bit different in the future than what we've known in the past is same-day travel. So some are thinking that perhaps this is one area we should expect to see a little bit less of corporate travel. But certainly from an international standpoint, transborder, the intention is to return. But basically, it has to come with the easing of restrictions and also, obviously, it has to come with their own internal policies in terms of work.
This is why, Kevin, Air Canada has been a leader in at-home testing as well, which we think will -- is part of the solution as well. I mean with the rapid testing now being authorized for at-home use in Ontario, for example, one of our largest markets, we are using that ourselves for people to come into work, come into our warehouses, come into our distribution centers. And it's proving to be very, very effective. And more and more companies are stepping into that protocol to try and get -- and again, this is -- we debate this for a while on the hybrid office environment as we go forward. But most believe that there will be a hybrid office, the people will come back to work and there'll be some protocols for some period of time. And the rapid testing at home is a very, very inexpensive and an appropriate way to get people back into their offices for some part of the week.
That makes sense, and that's helpful color. Maybe just my second question. It feels like the Canadian airline ministry and yourselves included, obviously, have been asking the Canadian government for some time now to kind of, I guess, remove these blanket travel restrictions and replace them with science-based testing. I don't get the sense we've made any real progress there. It would be interesting to know if you think this is something or are you hearing anything from the government that suggests that there they're looking at transitioning these restrictions towards more of a scientific-based ones? Or does this just come down to vaccines and the faster we get vaccinated, these restrictions get eliminated?
Yes. I think there's a couple of elements to that, Kevin. I mean I think there's no doubt the Canadian government is very focused on this. They know how important travel is to the economic environment. I -- certainly, the third wave has made it more difficult to do anything at this point in time, but there is tremendous work being done behind the scenes to prepare. There is an expert panel coming out potentially with some recommendations on borders and quarantines in the next several weeks, which we think will be important as well. So again, there is a fair amount of work being done to prepare. And all we're saying today is that -- and we will continue to push to -- for the Canadian government to communicate that plan as we go forward. But again, I can assure you and ensure everyone on the call that there is a fair amount of work being done behind the scenes.
Just on your net 0 plan by 2050, can you remind me, are you evaluating SAF, sustainable aviation fuels, right now? Or is that something you'll be looking at?
Kevin, absolutely. I mean, we'll be more transparent with our plan. But again, SAF will be a big piece of the solution to get to net 0 and also 20% by 2030, as well. So there's -- we have an interim target as well for emissions. And so technology is a big issue, and we're speaking to many companies, including Airbus and Boeing and GE about new technology coming down the pipe. SAF, we're speaking to several companies in Canada and in the U.S. market. And we're also speaking to the Canadian government about help and supporting SAF investment. We think that is a critical element going forward. And so those 2 components are going to be very, very important. And once we announced our climate goals back in mid-March, our team here were inundated with a number of phone calls from potential partners and that's opened up the -- opened up our eyes as to what potential -- was potentially available, just not in Canada, but around the world. And so we've been a leader in this area, and we'll continue to be a leader in this area. And I think there are some very exciting things that will be developed over the next couple of years, both from an SAF and from a technology perspective that will certainly allow us to get to our net 0 by 2015.
Following question is from Helane Becker from Cowen.
I just have one question with respect to the cargo business, as you think about the future of that. When passenger business sort of gets back up to speed, how are you thinking about cargo at that point in time? I know you've got the 2 767 that'll be coming in from ATSG later this year after the conversion. But is that going to be a big part of the business going forward? Is there like a new target for that? Could you maybe put some meat on that bone?
So first, if you look at the kind of the progress here on the cargo front, so from now to year-end, of course, we have the 777s and the 330s, which, of course, are enabling us to take on all this freighter-only capacity. Then we move to bringing in the 767s, and we should have 2 of those converted by year-end. And as we ramp up the passenger demand, of course, we'll have access to incremental billing space that's when it comes from the restart of some of our network. In addition to that, we also launched the Rivo, the e-commerce platform. So as we progress over time, certainly, we're going to continue to explore the opportunities that opened for us here on the cargo front. But certainly, as we ramp up the 767 freighters, there's no doubt that over the course of the next few years, cargo will become a more meaningful business for us. Absolutely, no doubt.
Actually, congratulations to everybody. Kathy, on your retirement; and Amos and Mike on your first conference call as your -- in your new respective roles.
Following question is from Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Market.
I'll echo all the best to everyone, as well. I'd like to go forward again into the future here and go under the premise that vaccines result in a very significant surge in travel in the early days. And my question is, what can you do in the event that, that happens and it outpaces the capacity that you have in the time line that you're able to bring it on? And I know there was talk on price. And I think Lucie said, though, that, that is market dependent on what other -- what your competitors are doing. So I'm wondering if there's anything else that you could do? And in one particular area, could you, for example, and how difficult is it if demand is very high and you reconfigure your aircraft either to add more seats or take out some business class seats and replace with premium economy. Just curious as to what else there might be that you could do in the near-term to be able to handle if we do get a surge in leisure-driven demand, not business demand, but leisure-driven demand?
Yes. Like I said, a nice problem to have. We really can't change LOPA. It takes 1 year, 1.5 years to change a LOPA basically of a plane. But what we could do, frankly, is again, we've got planes sitting in the desert. We can bring those back fairly quickly, as I spoke about before. But if that wasn't enough, we could certainly take the 11 planes we've converted to cargo, all cargo, the 330s and the 777s and convert them back. And that would take a little bit of time, but certainly, we could do that fairly quickly. But again, Walter, we'll certainly see this coming in the bookings. And like I said earlier, it gives us adequate time to bring back the number of planes and certainly the number of people. And given the fact that we've kept our pilots recent and is an advantage to us as the market comes back.
And Mike, if indeed the business segment, as you see it through your forward bookings and industry studies, is not coming back, particularly intra company travel and that kind of thing, you could, though, look at a -- even though it's a longer period to put into place, reconfiguring for the new normal. I mean is that a fair...
Absolutely, Walter, to Lucie's earlier point, we think we're configured fairly nicely for business class right now. But taking out a row of -- a third row of business class and making that into 4 or 6 economy seats or premium economy, we can do that fairly quickly as well.
And we spoke about the premium cabins a bit earlier when we talked about LOPA. But we can't be alarmed here that -- we also have a very good LOPA for premium economy. So if we were to see some longer-term recovery, let's say, in the international premium markets, we're still very well equipped with the investments we've made from a [ PY ] perspective. So from that point of view and even within North America, if you look at the 737s, for example, we have the ideal product for us to be able to grow into this business demand and the ability to recover pretty quickly with the diverse fleet that we have. And needless to say, in this environment, we have a multitude of scenarios in terms of what the demand might look like. There's the one obviously that we -- that we load into the schedule closer to departure. But we are looking at the future and have many scenarios that we share with that with Craig and his team to make sure that if the demand were to perform a little bit different than what our initial assumptions were that we would be able to react, so.
So yes, that's why we can say with confidence to you and others that in virtually every scenario, we think we've got the flexibility to ramp up fairly quickly, basically.
And on that note, with the aircraft that -- the preferred aircraft that you mentioned that you have your eye on in that rebounding environment, is there any risk at all here that your competitors are going to have the same eye on the same aircraft? That prices maybe bid up on those, either straight from the OEM or otherwise? And is there anything -- I know you're in a -- obviously, a more financial constrained capacity, but is there anything that you can do through leveraging a relationship with the OEMs right now to kind of ready yourself for that potential opportunity so that you're not left kind of facing with significantly higher equipment costs or lack of availability of new ones?
The quick answer to that is yes. I mean we've got very strong relationships with the OEMs and with many lessors as well. So as you know, our fleet has always been about half leased and have owned, and so we maintain very strong relationships with both OEMs and lessors. So Walter, without getting into what we're contemplating, certainly, we can leverage those relationships.
Okay. That's encouraging. My last question is just a flat out CASM question in the new normal. When you're back to 2019 levels? When you have a fleet that the new fleet that would bring you there, right? So when you've added aircraft to bring yourself up to 2019 levels, how materially lower do you think your CASM will be compared to...
Well. Like I said, Walter, in my opening comments, we hope to have an Investor Day towards the end of the year, and we'll provide that visibility at that point in time, we certainly look forward to it.
[Operator Instructions] Our following question is from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.
You addressed before that your demand trends may follow the U.S. precedent subject to seasonality, which actually makes me wonder as it relates to U.S. precedent, if it extends to how you treat the government credit facilities as well? What we're seeing here is airlines are issuing capital market deals in order to extricate themselves from the government handcuffs. You talked about markets being open before. Is this an option for Air Canada? Or are the terms you'd get not necessarily better? Also anything with the government fine print that would preclude you from doing a loyalty deal? You mentioned that the program is unencumbered?
Yes. We did pledge plan to the government as part of the secured package. But there is no deterrent for us to take that to market later this year or next year, if we so choose. And there's no debt. I mean like we said in the press release, Jamie, we -- the government financing is there for insurance purposes. We'd like to eventually replace it with capital markets, if required. And as Amos, I think, hinted, we'll be exploring that later this year, basically.
Okay. Just wanted to confirm. And then a longer-term question. It's an obvious question these days how to the post-COVID managements behave differently? How do they think about the ATL and minimum liquidity and so forth? My question actually relates to labor though post COVID. And I realize you have long-term contracts in place. It's why I wanted to ask you as opposed to somebody with an amendable contract. Do you have any guess as to how labor's priorities may change as a result of the downturn? Just thinking about the balance between work rules, job protection, profit sharing, that sort of thing. Apologies that it's not an Air Canada specific question, but it's something we've been thinking about internally. And if it's too early to answer, that's fine, you can cut me off.
It's an interesting dimension, Jamie, as to -- we haven't received any feedback yet. We're very close to our labor groups and our labor leaders. We've obviously got alignment of interest on reopening the economy and reopening travel here. So we speak to them at length. And like you said, in our case, we've got longer-term contracts. But there's no doubt they're going to think through this. All of those are going to think through this and what changes we have to make, obviously, to liquidity and to preservation of jobs and other things. So I suspect they will be thinking over that as the pandemic -- as we recover from the pandemic, and we'll have those conversations with airline leaders over the next couple of years. Again, they've got fairly strong job protection to begin with, frankly, but there's no reason why they may not ask for more as we go forward.
We have no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Ms. Murphy.
Thank you, all. Thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today. Thank you very much.
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