Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd

TSE:9107

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[鳥山 幸夫, executive]

Financial highlights, brief report for first quarter fiscal year 2023.

A, financial highlights for first quarter fiscal year 2023.

A-1, financial results for first quarter fiscal year 2023.

For the fiscal 2023 first quarter results, operating revenues were JPY 222.2 billion. Operating income was JPY 19.6 billion. Ordinary income was JPY 49.1 billion. And net income attributable to owners of parent was JPY 38.5 billion. Compared year-on-year to the first quarter of fiscal 2022, operating income improved by JPY 0.7 billion. This was mainly due to an increase in the number of transported vehicles in Car Carrier Business. Meanwhile, ordinary income deteriorated by JPY 218.2 billion year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in the freight rates for Ocean Network Express, ONE, which had been at a high level due to supply restrictions through fiscal 2022, while the lifting volume had not yet returned to normal levels.

The key financial indicators show that equity capital was JPY 1,570.1 billion. Interest-bearing liability was JPY 358.8 billion, DER was 23%, and equity ratio was 74%.

A-2, financial results for first quarter fiscal year 2023 by segment.

Ordinary income for the Dry Bulk segment was JPY 1.5 billion, a decrease of JPY 13 billion, compared to JPY 14.5 billion in the same period last year. Since fiscal 2022 was an exceptionally strong year, profit decreased by comparison. Ordinary income for the Energy Resource Transport segment was JPY 2.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of JPY 3.1 billion. Ordinary income for the Product Logistics segment as a whole was JPY 45.9 billion, representing a decrease of JPY 202.7 billion year-on-year. This includes ordinary income from Containership Business of JPY 25.5 billion, a decrease of JPY 212.7 billion year-on-year.

For the Product Logistics segment, excluding Containership Business, ordinary income in the first quarter was JPY 20.4 billion, an improvement of JPY 10 billion year-on-year. Although the first quarter results deteriorated year-on-year, they surpassed the forecasted earnings for the first quarter released on May 8. The results have surpassed the figures forecasted at the beginning of the fiscal year due to the improved profitability of ONE and Car Carrier Business besides the significant effect of the recent depreciation of the yen.

B, forecasts and initiatives for fiscal year 2023.

B-1, forecasts for fiscal year 2023 and key factors.

With regard to the fiscal 2023 full year forecast, operating revenues are expected to be JPY 900 billion. Operating income will be JPY 89 billion. Ordinary income will be JPY 135 billion. And net income attributable to owners of parent will be JPY 120 billion. Compared to the figures released on May 8, the operating revenues forecast rose by JPY 30 billion. Operating income improved by JPY 4 billion, ordinary income improved by JPY 5 billion, and net income remained unchanged from the previous announcement. In relation to conditions overall, Car Carrier Business will likely remain steady and operating income is expected to improve by JPY 10.2 billion year-on-year. We expect JPY 135 billion in ordinary income as the Containership Business continues to stabilize.

The ordinary income increase of JPY 5 billion compared to the previous forecast is due to revision of the assumed yen to dollar exchange rate, which was updated from the previous JPY 125 to JPY 135 for the second half, resulting in a foreign exchange valuation gain. Another positive note is higher earnings anticipated for Car Carrier business. Negative forecast factors include downward revisions for Dry Bulk and Containerships. But despite these, ordinary income is expected to increase by JPY 5 billion.

Despite the anticipated improvement in ordinary income, the net income attributed to owners of parent forecast remains unchanged. The main factor behind this is tax costs. Based on a review of the forecast figures released at the previous briefing and in light of the current accounting and tax rules, the tax expense is expected to be higher than previously estimated. As a result, the net income attributable to owners of parent for the fiscal year is expected to be the same as previously announced.

Assuming an exchange rate of JPY 135 in the second half, the average exchange rate during the fiscal year would be JPY 136.04, while the average bunker price is estimated at USD 613 per metric ton. Based on these assumptions, a JPY 1 change in the assumed exchange rate during the 9 months from the second quarter would result in a JPY 1.2 billion change in ordinary income. Each USD 10 per ton change in the assumed bunker price would result in a USD 60 million change in ordinary income.

As for our shareholders' return, the planned annual dividend is JPY 200 per share, as previously announced. This includes a basic dividend of JPY 120 per share and an additional dividend of JPY 80 per share. There are no changes on this point. However, regarding additional shareholders' return, we have today announced that we decided to conduct share buyback up to JPY 60 billion or 11,676,000 shares. An additional return of JPY 50 billion or more was announced at the previous briefing. And in light of the size of this amount, a decision was made to buy back "K" LINE shares as the preferred method for the shareholders' return.

B-2, forecasts for fiscal year 2023 by segment.

The forecasted full year ordinary income for Dry Bulk is JPY 9 billion, which represents a downward revision of JPY 3 billion from the previous forecast announced on May 8. At the beginning of the period, we assume that a full-scale recovery in the Chinese economy would begin by the summer. However, this recovery has been delayed slightly, and Capesize transport of iron ore and coal to China, along with grain transport to the country by Panamax and smaller-sized vessels has not grown as much as expected. For this reason, we have adopted more conservative market assumptions.

Page 15 shows our market assumptions with a brief portion of the Dry Bulk fleet. Based on this revision, our full year forecast for Capesize vessels is now USD 15,400 per day, down from the previous level of USD 18,250. Similarly, the forecast for Panamax dropped from USD 15,500 to USD 12,750 per day, while Handymax fell from USD 14,000 to USD 11,450 per day, and small Handy decreased from USD 12,250 to USD 10,600 per day. Under these circumstances, we have left a second half ordinary income forecast of JPY 6 billion unchanged, but we are anticipating a full year ordinary income of JPY 9 billion, a drop of JPY 3 billion from the previous JPY 12 billion forecast.

In the Energy Resource Transport segment, the full year ordinary income forecast is JPY 8 billion. This is the same figure as previously announced. Because "K" LINE has signed mostly medium- and long-term contracts, we are not very susceptible to market fluctuations and other factors. The full year ordinary income forecast for our product logistics is JPY 125 billion, an increase of JPY 7 billion from the previously announced figure of JPY 118 billion. Meanwhile, the full year ordinary income forecast for Containership Business is JPY 49 billion, which is JPY 1 billion less than the previous forecast of JPY 50 billion. Therefore, product logistics, excluding Containerships, has increased by JPY 8 billion compared to the previous forecast.

In the Car Carrier portion of the Product Logistics segment, a shortage of transport capacity remains. And in fact, this trend is only accelerating.

In particular, the shortage of parts and semiconductors for OEMs in Japan and elsewhere is being resolved. As production plans return to normal, the supply and demand situation is becoming tighter. Reportedly, there are about 170 new car carriers currently under construction. However, given that the world's current car carrier fleet comprises numerous older vessels, we are of the opinion that even if these new vessels are delivered, they will probably end up replacing older vessels. Therefore, we do not believe the vessel shortage situation will improve rapidly.

At the briefing on May 8, we forecasted ordinary income from Containership Business as JPY 27 billion for the first half, JPY 23 billion for the second half, and JPY 50 billion for the full year. This has now been revised downward by JPY 1 billion to JPY 28.5 billion for the first half, JPY 20.5 billion for the second half and JPY 49 billion for the full year. "K" LINE's earnings forecast for ONE as a whole is approximately USD 1.1 billion. At the previous briefing, the forecast was about USD 1.2 billion. Accordingly, the performance forecast for Containership Business has been updated based on the assumption that earnings will be lower by about USD 0.1 billion.

In terms of each quarter, ordinary income for the first quarter was JPY 25.5 billion, which is higher than we had previously forecasted. The improvement can be attributed to the fact that long-term freight rate contracts from the previous fiscal year remained in place in April and May, especially on North American routes, which helped to boost earnings. As the lifting volume was higher than expected, we were able to earn an ordinary income of JPY 25.5 billion. The ordinary income forecast for the second quarter is significantly lower at JPY 3 billion, primarily because the freight rate level for the second quarter started falling from June onwards.

In June, short-term freight rates dropped, while long-term freight rate contracts signed in the previous fiscal year were no longer effective. Moreover, cargo volume is also lower than expected. Based on this, ONE is responding to the situation by resuming blank sailings again, although it was ceased in the first quarter.

Along with these background factors, we have revised our exchange rate assumptions based on expectations for yen depreciation in terms of calculating profitability. "K" LINE's earnings for Containership Business are adjusted by translating from U.S. dollars to yen using the exchange rate at the end of the period. As the exchange rate assumption is now for a weaker yen, the earnings for the full year will likely increase. However, the numbers as of the end of the first quarter are fixed and cannot be revised. Accordingly, the effect of the yen's depreciation will be lost, especially in the second quarter. The earnings forecast for just the second quarter looks less positive than the actual situation, although the figures will be consistent as a whole. This, in addition to market factors, is making the second quarter forecast worse.

The ordinary income forecast for the second half is now JPY 20.5 billion, down from JPY 23 billion at the previous briefing. This is due to the slight downward revision of the freight rate level in the second half based on the freight market conditions in the second quarter. While there is some debate as to whether ONE's earnings forecast is conservative or not, we have factored in the effects of the cost reduction plan just explained to you. The effects do not change much in the future, but there is another factor to note. Starting this summer, shipping companies are applying a general rate increase, known as GRI, and asking customers to start paying higher freight rates. However, the effect of this rate increase has not yet been factored into the earnings forecast. If this restoration of higher freight rates is achieved and sustained, please note that the forecast may be revised upward accordingly.

B-3, key factors for "K" LINE's owned businesses in fiscal year 2023, full year results comparison with the previous year.

Next, I would like to explain a year-on-year comparison of ordinary income for "K" LINE's owned businesses by element. The red bar graph on the right shows the fiscal 2023 ordinary income outlook for "K" LINE's owned businesses, excluding Containerships, which is currently JPY 93 billion. By contrast, the actual ordinary income of "K" LINE's owned businesses in fiscal 2022 was JPY 89.2 billion. In the briefing in May, we shared a figure of JPY 94 billion. However, after revising the allocations of general and administrative expenses to the business divisions and making them bear more of the costs, we ended up with a figure of JPY 89.2 billion.

In fiscal 2023, ordinary income is expected to reach JPY 93 billion, an improvement compared to the previous fiscal year. The breakdown includes temporary positive components, mainly due to the impact of exchange rates, equaling JPY 5.5 billion. The contribution from Dry Bulk is expected to decrease by JPY 12.2 billion, while the contribution from Energy Resource Transport will also dip slightly by JPY 1.2 billion. In the Product Logistics segment, an income increase of JPY 11.7 billion is expected, mainly from Car Carrier Business.

Accordingly, the total of these contributions is forecasted to increase by JPY 3.8 billion year-on-year, resulting in JPY 93 billion. At the time of the previous briefing, fiscal 2023 ordinary income from "K" LINE's owned businesses was expected to be JPY 88 billion. Therefore, the current forecast represents an increase of JPY 5 billion.

C, status and progress of medium-term management plan.

C-1, changes in the business environment. There is no significant change in our outlook for the business environment. As mentioned in economic decoupling, we expect geopolitical risks to continue for relations between the United States and China as well as in Russia-Ukraine and the East Asia region, including China, Taiwan and North Korea. When it comes to global economic risk factors, business confidence in Europe and the United States, inflation, and to a greater extent, the slow recovery of the Chinese economy are all concerns. Updated national energy policies will likely increase environmental costs for companies, which must change their business systems and models in response to new regulations.

Basically, this means extra costs. However, as mentioned in action based on the medium-term management plan, we remain committed to our policy of realizing growth by considering the emissions reduction and decarbonization of us and the society as a business opportunity based on our long-term management vision and with a focus on our portfolio strategy.

C-2, capital policy. Capital policy progress and corporate value improvement.

The framework of the basic approach for our capital policy remains the same as outlined in the medium-term management plan. However, the relevant KPIs and numerical targets are regularly updated. So here's a summary of the latest changes. To further enhance earning power, our goal is to achieve an operating cash flow of at least JPY 1.2 trillion. Under our investment plan, the framework for growth-related investment remains at JPY 630 billion for the time being. Our shareholders' return policy is also unchanged with a commitment to return at least JPY 500 billion. As part of efforts to further enhance corporate value, we have already set an ROE of 10% or more, along with a target ROIC of 6% to 7% by fiscal 2026. As of today, we are now additionally aiming for a PBR of 1.0 or more as a numerical target. This is the only change since the previous briefing.

C-3, capital policy. Shareholders' return policy. The planned annual dividend is JPY 200 per share, unchanged from last time, and the repurchase of "K" LINE shares will continue until the predetermined limit has been reached, either the maximum total acquisition value of shares, JPY 60 billion, or the maximum total number of shares, 11,676,000 shares, whichever is attained first. Like last time, we plan to do this using off-auction own share repurchase trading, ToSTNeT-3. If it is not possible to acquire all the intended shares through this method alone, we plan to purchase the remainder on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The entire share buyback period is from August 3 to October 31. As announced today, the scheduled "K" LINE share acquisition period using ToSTNeT-3 is during the period of August 3 through to the 9th.

I will now explain the actual results of our shareholders' return and changes to the future plans. We have increased our additional shareholders' return for fiscal 2023. They have been raised from JPY 50 billion or more to a maximum of JPY 60 billion through the buyback of "K" LINE shares. The total additional returns are set at JPY 110 billion or more, and this figure remains unchanged. Accordingly, we plan to return the remaining JPY 50 billion or more as additional return to shareholders by the end of fiscal 2026.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]