Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd

TSE:9107

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q1

[鳥山 幸夫, executive]

Financial highlights. Brief report for first quarter fiscal year 2022.

A, financial highlights for first quarter fiscal year 2022.

A-1, financial results for first quarter fiscal year 2022. Consolidated operating revenues came in at JPY 228.5 billion, with operating income at JPY 18.9 billion. Ordinary income at JPY 267.4 billion, and net income attributable to owners of parent at JPY 266.6 billion. The exchange rate was JPY 126.49 to the U.S. dollar, and the bunker price was USD 821 per metric ton. These ordinary and net income figures represent record quarterly results.

As for the key financial indicators, equity capital was JPY 1,187.8 billion and interest-bearing liability was JPY 410.4 billion. As a result, NET DER improved to 13% while the equity ratio jumped to 64%.

A-2, financial results for first quarter fiscal year 2022 by segment. In the Dry Bulk segment, ordinary income was JPY 15.0 billion. It represented an improvement of JPY 14.1 billion compared to the same period last year. The Energy Resource Transport segment recorded ordinary income of JPY 5.8 billion. This marked improvement of JPY 5.0 billion from the same period last year. In the Product Logistics segment including Containership business, ordinary income grew to JPY 248.8 billion, a year-on-year improvement of JPY 159.9 billion.

B, forecasts and initiatives for fiscal year 2022.

B-1, forecast for fiscal year 2022 and key factors. We forecast first half operating revenues of JPY 470.0 billion. Operating income of JPY 39.0 billion. Ordinary income of JPY 500.0 billion, and net income attributable to owners of parent of JPY 495.0 billion.

Second half operating revenues are expected to be JPY 420.0 billion. Operating income will be JPY 18.0 billion. Ordinary income will be JPY 200.0 billion, and net income attributable to owners of parent will be JPY 195.0 billion. For the full year, ordinary income is expected to be JPY 700.0 billion, while net income attributable to owners of parent will be JPY 690.0 billion. These match the figures that were released on July 21, 2022.

Operating income is expected to rise by JPY 39.3 billion compared to the same period last year. This is due to an earnings recovery in "K" Line's own Dry Bulk Businesses and Car Carrier Business.

The ordinary income forecast of JPY 700.0 billion represent an increase of JPY 42.5 billion compared to the same period last year. This means that the earnings of Containership Business, OCEAN NETWORK EXPRESS, ONE, will be higher than the figures originally announced on May 9. While still not as strong as the previous fiscal year, the achievement gap has narrowed.

Assuming that the exchange rate will remain at JPY 130 to the U.S. dollar going forward, the forecasted full-year average is JPY 129.68 to the U.S. dollar, and the average bunker price is USD 896 per metric ton.

A JPY 1 fluctuation in the exchange rate would have a large impact of JPY 5.5 billion on the forecasted figures. With a considerable depreciation of the yen in recent weeks, we will continue to keep an eye on the exchange rate as it could trigger a downward revision of earnings going forward.

After previously setting a dividend of JPY 150 for the first half and JPY 150 for the second half, we will increase the dividend to JPY 300 for each half. On top of that, we still plan to distribute shareholder returns of over JPY 100 billion. Moreover, we have already issued a press release announcing a 3-for-1 stock split to be executed on October 1, 2022.

B-2, forecasts for fiscal year 2022 by segment. Regarding the performance forecasts by segment, ordinary income is expected to be JPY 36.0 billion in the Dry Bulk segment, JPY 13.0 billion in the Energy Resource Transport segment and JPY 627.0 billion in Containership Business. Ordinary income in the Product Logistics segment is expected to be JPY 663.0 billion. Excluding Containership Business, however, the figure is forecasted as JPY 36.0 billion. Overall, ordinary income is forecasted to reach JPY 700.0 billion.

Now let's turn to the summaries by segment. Please refer to Page 15 of the material for information concerning the Dry Bulk segment. The table at the top shows the dry bulk markets results and our company's assumptions. The left side shows the results for fiscal year 2021, while the right side shows the assumptions for fiscal year 2022.

For example, comparing the full-year result and forecast for Capesize vessels. The previous fiscal year's result was USD 32,750, while this fiscal year's forecast is USD 22,400. In all vessel types, the figures are assumed to be worse than in the previous period. This is actually less than the initial forecast for the fiscal year 2022 announced in May.

Even under these circumstances, earnings for the Dry Bulk segment are expected to improve by JPY 12.3 billion year-on-year. There are 3 factors behind this improvement despite the aspects causing deterioration of market conditions. The first is the daily efforts outlined in our Medium-Term Management Plan. In particular, our exposure control measures are seeing the desired effects. In addition to utilizing the surplus vessels of our core fleet for spot and medium-term contracts, we are chartering vessels according to circumstances in a responsive way for short periods of time that match the transportation contracts, thereby expanding our business.

The second factor is the disposal of uneconomical vessels that we completed in the previous fiscal year. Let me give you an estimated reference value for a certain point in time. The disposal has helped increase ordinary income in the Dry Bulk segment by about JPY 2.0 billion.

The third factor, which I will explain in detail later, is the exchange rate. The yen's depreciation is having a positive effect on earnings in the Dry Bulk segment.

As for the Energy Resource Transport segment, our explanation always involved medium- and long-term contracts with minimal fluctuations in market conditions. This time, however, I would like to mention activities that are not currently reflected in figures. We have been receiving a lot of inquiries recently concerning the future projects, especially involving LNG carriers. We are in the process of ordering new vessels for a number of projects and finalizing Time Charter contracts. This will show up in the numbers starting after fiscal year 2023. Our Energy Resource Transport segment is now focusing not only on operations with our current fleet but also on initiatives for a new future.

Under the Product Logistics segment, I will also cover Car Carrier, Logistics, Short Sea and Coastal and Containership Businesses. Please refer to Page 16 of the material for information about Car Carrier Business. This shows the actual number of vehicles transported in fiscal year 2021 and the current forecast for fiscal year 2022. Compared to the 2,886,000 vehicles transported in the previous fiscal year, the volume is expected to increase by about 17% to 3,365,000 vehicles this fiscal year.

With the high demand, the vessel supply is very tight right now and there are not enough car carriers. In particular, the charter market is running out of vessels, so the supply and demand situation is tight. Therefore, with contracts that require freight rates to be periodically renewed, the rates will be reset in a way that reflects supply and demand. By also increasing the proportion of cargo with higher rates, such as high and heavy construction equipment and machinery or alternatively cargo from Asia, we can expect a relatively large increase in profit in Car Carrier Business compared to the same period of the previous year.

On the other hand, earnings in the Logistics Business are gradually diminishing from the previous fiscal year's level. In the previous fiscal year, earnings, especially for forwarding, remained high due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Short Sea and Coastal Businesses, demand for Asian short sea routes, international shipping, is strong. In the ferry service area, we have made progress on restructuring and eliminating unprofitable routes, and we expect profits to also increase in this area year-on-year.

Turning to Containership business. I will first explain the route situation. Over the longer term, the current supply chain disruptions are expected to ease. In particular, the number of vessels staying at the port on the West Coast of North America has decreased from about 40 in the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year to about 20 now. Meanwhile, the number of vessels rerouting to the East Coast of North America is increasing, resulting in congestion there as well. Regarding shipping routes to Europe, such as to Hamburg and other European ports, strikes by port workers have simultaneously occurred. Overall, the situation has not improved significantly.

There also has been no noticeable movement on contract renewal negotiations between port operators on the West Coast of North America and the ILWU labor union. Nevertheless, there are still no noticeable delays in terminal operations as a result of these negotiations, such as any slowing down of cargo handling.

On the other hand, the overall supply chain situation will not likely change under these circumstances. For example, inflation in the United States may cause consumers to reduce consumption, while the situation in Ukraine may encourage Europeans also to curtail purchasing. Accordingly, the slightly lower freight rates at the moment are likely to continue, especially on the trades to the West Coast of North America.

Given this situation, we predict that ONE's earnings this fiscal year will not reach the ordinary income level of the previous fiscal year. Assuming that profits will likely be around 7% lower than the previous fiscal year, 31% of those earnings will be returned to "K" Line. In the same period last year, Containership Business, including ONE, et cetera, earned JPY 623.8 billion for "K" Line, and our forecast for the current period is JPY 627.0 billion.

B-3, key factors of improvement for "K" Line's own business in fiscal year 2022. Changes in the dollar-yen exchange rate this fiscal year have been very remarkable, creating a substantial impact on earnings. Therefore, we have illustrated it to help you better understand its movement. The figure shows key points behind income improvement for "K" Line's own businesses except Containership. The waterfall chart on the left side shows ordinary income from "K" Line's own businesses in fiscal year 2021 of JPY 45.5 billion. While the chart on the right side shows that this fiscal year's income forecast has increased to JPY 85.0 billion.

In the waterfall chart on the right, using JPY 45.5 billion as a starting point, JPY 21.8 billion represents the income improvement through the efforts made by "K" Line's own businesses. While JPY 17.7 billion, gray portion, is the earnings improved generated by the weaker yen. By segment, Dry Bulk will improve by JPY 12.3 billion. However, only JPY 7.5 billion is due to profitability improvement by "K" Line's own businesses. And JPY 4.8 billion, about 40%, is due to the exchange rate change. The JPY 8.2 billion increase in the Energy Resource Transport segment breaks down to JPY 4.8 billion from an improved shipping route profitability and JPY 3.4 billion in exchange rate gains, which also represents about 40% of the total. The Product Logistics segment, excluding Containership business, is set to increase by JPY 19.0 billion. However, the actual improvement in income will be JPY 9.5 billion, with the other half resulting from foreign exchange gains.

C, status and progress of medium-term management plan.

C-1, operating cash flows. Now I will summarize the progress made with respect to our medium-term management plan.

Our forecast for full year operating cash flow at the beginning of the fiscal year was JPY 300.0 billion. ONE's Containership business and "K" Line's own businesses have all achieved steady progress, and ONE's earnings account for the majority of this performance. This will likely increase the cash flow by JPY 100.0 billion over the initial forecast. As a result, we can now expect a full year operating cash flow of JPY 400.0 billion.

C-2, return to shareholders. The material shows our policy for return to shareholders. Our approach to shareholder returns is based mainly on consideration of cash inflow and investment needs for the period. Given the importance of these 2 factors, we have decided not to set a dividend payout ratio or other formula in advance. The newly announced additional dividend is a part of an agile approach for responding to changes. Of course, we also consider the levels of surplus retained earnings as well as earnings in the previous fiscal year, and then we try to balance the shareholder returns accordingly. As a result, as shown in the upper right corner of the page, we will pay a total dividend of JPY 600 per share, which includes the additional dividend. A decision has not yet been made on how and when to distribute the additional returns of JPY 100.0 billion or more, but we still plan to execute it.

C-3, external environment surrounding "K" Line Group. The current business environment has led to many questions, so we have compiled a list here. In terms of the international situation, the current Taiwan crisis is certainly impacting us and should be also included. Please refer to the material.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]