Nippon Yusen KK

TSE:9101

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q3

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

Thank you very much for waiting. Welcome to the briefing on the financial results of the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2022 of Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha.

Let me first introduce our members present here today: Hiroki Harada, representative director and Senior Managing Executive Officer; Hiroshi Kubota, director, Managing Executive Officer. And myself, Shimomura from IR group, will be serving as moderator today. Today, Kubota, our Chief Financial Officer and Senior Managing Executive Officer, will walk you through the financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2021, followed by questions-and-answers session which we expect to end around 16:00.

Today's presentation materials have been uploaded to our website, and so we will appreciate if you can refer to them as we go on.

Now let's get started. I will now give the floor to Managing Executive Officer Kubota.

[久保田 浩司, executive]

I am Kubota of Nippon Yusen.

Let me now give you the overview of the financial results of the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2022. I would like you to have the presentation document ready at hand, as I will proceed with my presentation along with the slides and then entertain questions afterwards. I have 3 items to cover today: first, the overview of financial results of the third quarter as well as the first 9 months to the third quarter; followed by the full year forecast for the year ending March 2022. And third item is on return to shareholders and related matters. As for the forecast of fiscal 2022, I would like to decline referring to specific numbers, but we'll talk about the business environment for the fourth quarter and for the next fiscal year.

Now let me dive into the discussion on the results of the third quarter alone and the 9 months to the third quarter.

In the 3 months of the third quarter, we achieved revenue of JPY 620 billion, operating profit of JPY 80 billion, recurring profit of JPY 300 billion and net income attributable to owners of the parent company of JPY 280 billion. On a cumulative basis, the revenue totaled slightly less than JPY 1.7 trillion, operating profit slightly less than JPY 200 billion and both recurring profit and net income about JPY 690 billion, representing extremely high levels as we have posted record highs for operating profit, recurring profit and net income. So I hope you can see how strong these results were. ONE, Nippon Cargo Airlines, Yusen Logistics and also 3 divisions in Bulk Shipping business performed well, leading to the result of the third quarter that we are showing now.

Now please turn to Page 3. This is a review of the first 9 months to the third quarter as compared to the same period previous year. Revenue increased by JPY 530 billion. JPY 230 billion rise was achieved in the logistics business, and another JPY 230 billion growth in Bulk Shipping business. Adding the revenue increase from Nippon Cargo Airlines on top of that, in the 9 months to the third quarter, we posted more than JPY 500 billion in revenue growth.

Recurring profit reached JPY 698.3 billion, up slightly less than JPY 580 billion year-on-year. At the net income level, after accounting for extraordinary profit and loss, we ended up with a year-on-year increase of about JPY 640 billion. At the recurring profit level, Liner & Logistics business, consisting of the liner, air cargo and logistics, achieved close to a JPY 500 billion increase. Bulk Shipping business benefited from the strong dry bulk market and a recovery in the volume handled by car carriers. It was heavily affected by the COVID-19 in the first half of the last fiscal year but, due to the recovery in the volume handled, achieved about JPY 80 billion of year-on-year growth.

We recorded extraordinary profit from partial transfer of shares of a subsidiary in the real estate segment Yusen Real Estate Corp. On the other hand, since we have improved our financial structure and from the perspective of enhancing the agility in the operation of the business, we recorded extraordinary loss from the penalty for canceling lease contracts for purchase of aircraft operated by Nippon Cargo Airlines in the air cargo business. Despite this, we have achieved JPY 640 billion growth in the net income.

Moving on to Page 4, you can see the recurring profit by segment. What I already said is repeated on this slide basically, but the liner business saw its recurring profit rise by JPY 436 billion. As for ONE, we have enjoyed [ brisk ] transport demand, while disruptions in the supply chain continued and thus caused freight rate increase and helped us post an extremely high level of profit. In the same period last year, ONE has in total posted $1.6 billion or a little more than JPY 60 billion for us in terms of our equity share of 38%, while in the first 9 months of this fiscal year, ONE achieved $11.6 billion for the whole company, which translates into JPY 400 billion-plus for us on an equity share basis. And this was one of the factors that pushed up the profit.

The air cargo business accomplished more than JPY 30 billion growth in the recurring profit. Again due to COVID-19, we benefited from suspension and cancellation of international passenger flights, with continued strong movement on cargoes. Furthermore, part of ocean freight continued to shift to airfreight due to lack of space in container shipping. Given this tight supply-demand balance, our profit was boosted to an extremely high level.

Please turn to Page 5. Logistics business saw its profit up by close to JPY 30 billion. In each of the businesses ocean freight, air freight and logistics, we worked to respond to robust transport demand. In airfreight, the partial shift of ocean freight to airfreight also drove our profit.

Bulk Shipping business recorded about JPY 80 billion rise in its profit. As I said, in the first half of the previous fiscal year, COVID-19 and the weak dry bulk market put us in a very difficult position, but this time around, we were able to achieve an JPY 80 billion growth. In the car carrier business, we still remain concerned with automotive components shortage caused by semiconductor production shortage and further spread of COVID-19, but as far as the past 9 month is concerned, the impact was limited. And handling volume also increased compared to the year before. Dry bulk business benefited from -- the markets (sic) [ market rates ] remained at higher levels -- and solid profitability significantly improved from the year before. Energy division continued to generate stable profit, led mainly by medium- to long-term contracts. Thus, the 3 businesses under Bulk Shipping segment together achieved an JPY 80 billion in profit growth.

Moving on to Page 6, you can see the summary of the first 9 months to the third quarter results here, which I explained, so far. [ Net ] revenue closed slightly less than JPY 1.7 trillion, and operating profit slightly less than JPY 200 billion, while recurring profit and net income were about JPY 690 billion each, which turned out to be a very strong performance.

Turning to Page 7, where you see the recurring profit by segment as compared to the previous year. Since I have already explained the numbers represented on this slide, I would like to skip this slide. In any case, in Bulk Shipping in the last fiscal year, in the first quarter, we posted a loss of JPY 1.1 billion; in the second quarter, a profit of JPY 1.3 billion; and third quarter, JPY 13.9 billion, while this fiscal year, we have grown by close to JPY 80 billion in the first 9 months. Liner & Logistics business posted slightly less than JPY 500 billion in recurring profit.

On Page 8, you can see the analysis of change in the recurring profit in the first 9 months to the third quarter between the latest 2 fiscal years. First and foremost, market effects, et cetera was the biggest contributor with JPY 490 billion. Another positive factor was a slight depreciation of the yen, which helped us record this strong result.

Next, I would like to explain about the forecast for the full year of fiscal 2021.

Revenue is expected to reach JPY 2.2 trillion, operating profit JPY 265 billion. And recurring profit and net income both are forecasted to be JPY 930 billion. This means we are making upward revisions to our previous forecasts, which we carried out the timely disclosure for today. Together with the strong performance expected for ONE, Nippon Cargo Airlines, Yusen Logistics, we have made an upward revision of about JPY 200 billion in recurring profit and upward revision of more than JPY 20 billion in recurring profit for Bulk Shipping business. Revenue is expected to be JPY 2.2 trillion. Of the JPY 200 billion in upside, about 60% is attributable to the logistics business. And the remaining portions are contributed to by dry bulk, car carrier and Nippon Cargo Airlines.

Recurring profit and net income have been both revised upward by JPY 220 billion. Liner & Logistics are expected to contribute about JPY 200 billion. And Bulk Shipping, especially dry bulk and car carrier, is expected to bring about [ JPY 20 billion ] approximately.

Regarding the dividend. We paid JPY 200 per share as the interim dividend. As for the year-end, we are planning to raise the dividend by JPY 400 per share from the previous forecast, which will bring the year-end dividend to JPY 1,000 per share, and JPY 1,200 for the full year. This is our forecast at the moment. Share buybacks, on the other hand, remain subject to consideration. The shareholder returns for the profits earned in fiscal 2021 will be resolved at the Board of Directors meeting in May after confirming the actual financial results. I will give you more details on this matter later in my presentation.

Moving on to Page 10, where you can see the forecast by segment. We anticipate a very high level of profit to be generated by ONE. Our previous forecast was $12 billion for the full year, which has now been raised to $15.4 billion, up $3.6 billion or more than JPY 400 billion, of which 38% or about JPY 160 billion will be attributed to us in accordance with our equity share. As for air cargo, we expect to close JPY 76 billion in recurring profit, which again is very high and represents an upward revision of JPY 19 billion. Normally the fourth quarter is seasonally a weak-demand period, but the impact of return of international passenger flights to the market is still unclear. And supply-demand balance is expected to avoid a major collapse, assuming that partial shift of ocean freight to airfreight will continue. As for the index, when we made an earnings announcement 3 months ago, we told you that [ the yield index ] will be [ 134 ] for the second half, but it currently stands at [ 188 ]. All of those are factors behind the upward revisions [ to stock ].

Please turn to Page 11, forecast by segment. As for the logistics business, please see the appendix for divisional details, namely ocean freight, airfreight and logistics. Ocean freight transportation volume TEU as well as airfreight metric ton remain unchanged from the previous forecast, but the unit price is high. Logistics faces several challenges, including soaring personnel expense. However, we are enhancing the structure to generate stable earnings through contract review and cost reduction. The profit forecast is JPY 56 billion for the logistics segment.

On Bulk Shipping segment, our previous forecast was JPY 100 billion, which in itself was sufficiently high. However, we made the forecast even higher by JPY 22 billion. Let me introduce the 3 divisions briefly.

On car carriers, production reduction impact is expected to be subsiding. And the estimated full year transportation volume is slightly up than the previous forecast. Transportation volume was 1.03 million in the third quarter and is estimated to be 1.07 million in the fourth quarter. We will closely monitor the impacts of COVID and semiconductor shortages, among other things, in order to satisfy customer needs. With the dry bulk division, some media report that the market is sluggish. And we revised down the market assumption for Panamax and Handysize compared to the previous forecasts. However, the third quarter was brisk. We made solid progress in structural reforms since last year. Also, FFA and future trades are being utilized in the fourth quarter to stabilize earnings. [ Tolerance for a ] sluggish market is enhanced as a result. Pertaining to energy transport, we face lingering impacts of slow VLCC market. However, the impacts are limited on our overall business performance. Addressed by LNG vessels, offshore business and mid- to long-term contracts, the division is expected to perform stably and solidly.

Please turn to Page 12. This slide summarizes the full year forecast: revenue forecast, JPY 2.2 trillion; operating profit, JPY 265 billion. Recurring profit and net income are JPY 930 billion each.

In the fourth quarter, the foreign exchange rate is set at JPY 113 to the dollar, and bunker prices at $565. On foreign exchange, profit levels for ONE and other divisions were revised upward. For the full year, a depreciation of JPY 1 will be translated to a JPY 6.84 billion profit increase. This is the sensitivity to profit. On the other hand, bunker prices will trend at $10 per tonne, amounting to slightly below JPY 2 million (sic) [ slightly below JPY 0.2 billion ]. The impacts of rising crude oil and other fuel prices are insignificant and manageable.

Please turn to Page 13, which compares last fiscal year's actual versus this fiscal year's forecast. The recurring profit last year was JPY 215.3 billion compared to JPY 930 billion in the forecast for this fiscal year, so the increase is approximately JPY 710 billion. This is attributable to Liner & Logistics; or ONE in particular, which alone is expected to generate more than JPY 500 billion. On the other hand, air cargo and logistics are also expected to achieve a certain profit increase. Furthermore, Bulk Shipping is estimated to generate high levels of profit amounting to JPY 122 billion from the 3 divisions I mentioned earlier, car carrier, dry bulk and energy. These elements constitute the forecasts for the current fiscal year.

Please turn to Page 14, which compares previous and current forecasts. The numbers were already explained. At the bottom, we made an upward revision of JPY 220 billion on a consolidated recurring profit basis.

Finally, let me describe the appendix which shows the results by segment for your perusal. I'd like to highlight one point. On Page 18, under Bulk Shipping, 3 months ago, BDI was around 3,400 to 3,500; and it's currently slightly below 1,400 to 1,500. The forecast for the fourth quarter stands at 2,010, reflecting our expectation that the market will recover after the Chinese New Year. We estimate that the capesize will dramatically decline as expected, whereas Panamax, Handymax and handy all will top the $20,000 mark. That is our forecast. On the other hand, as I mentioned earlier, we are utilizing FFA and future trades to stabilize earnings. Those are the factors constituting the forecast.

Moving on to item number three, shareholder return and other related items.

On dividend, let me announce our dividend forecast once again: interim dividend of JPY 200; and year-end dividend of JPY 1,000, up JPY 400 from the previous forecast. This is our dividend proposal. Shareholder returns were decided after due consideration and deliberation. We consider shareholder return as an important management issue. This basic principle is upheld and remains unchanged. 25% is our target dividend payout ratio to be paid mainly through dividends and is decided based on comprehensive considerations of our performance. Meanwhile, profits were up significantly in this quarter, leading to upward revisions of our forecast. Considering all these elements, we propose dividends accordingly.

Going forward, we will examine dividends in absolute terms, dividend yield, investments in decarbonization and share buyback. Those matters will be deliberated at various levels within the company as well as at management meeting and the BOD. Despite the pandemic, which makes it harder to predict future outlook, our forecast was revised significantly upward both for ONE and other divisions to top JPY 930 billion level. Though it is difficult to make reasonable presumption, profit levels are surpassing our expectation. Therefore, we propose a JPY 400 dividend increase.

Decarbonization is our top management priority. Therefore, we will update the NYK ESG story and decide the details of a task force that looks ahead year 2050. We hope to report you some aspects of those topics in March. By comprehensively considering absolute amounts of dividends, dividend yield and our vision for the future of our organization and over our group, we would like to solicit your understanding.

Finally on fiscal 2022, we'd like to [indiscernible] from referring to specific numbers at this point. Having said that, we experienced significant COVID impacts on our performance. This reminded us that the logistics as well as sea freight industry, where we operate, are swayed by global trends. We are cognizant, the fact that our business model is susceptible to virtually everything in nature. For the fourth quarter and fiscal 2022, it remains to be seen how the pandemic will end. That is the biggest imminent challenge we face. In addition, decarbonization is a major global trend. As we move forward with ESG management, our goal is to achieve net 0 by 2050. The question is how to accelerate our initiatives in order to differentiate ourselves.

As CFO, I pay attention to the U.S. financial policy, including the possibilities of monetary tightening and rate hike. As the U.S. experiences wage increase, robust demand and inflation, there is a possibility of interest rate hike. How does that impact the economy, market conditions, foreign exchange rates and fuel prices? We will continue monitoring the situation closely, as they may impact our businesses.

Regarding geopolitics, although I refrain from mentioning specific regions, we remain vulnerable to geopolitical risks in the future as we were in the past. Therefore, we remain vigilant against such risks [ amid the ] situation, how things will normalize for ONE, NCA and YLK; how the 3 divisions in the Bulk Shipping segment be impacted by COVID-19, semiconductor shortages and structural reform including [ EV ]. On dry bulk and energy transport, including energy vessels, to what extent can we accelerate ESG management? Those are the key questions we ask ourselves. We also need to secure budgets for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2022. We hope to brief you on those topics at an appropriate time.

With that, I'd like to conclude my presentation.

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

Now I'd like to move to questions and answers. [Operator Instructions] Now we received one question. Thank you for your question. It is about ONE and shareholder return policy for our company and mid-term management plan. Let me read it out, first. "I have been told that the business plan of ONE is scheduled to be announced in March. Can we expect this to include not just a fleet development plan but also profits, cash allocation and dividend policy, with enough details to allow your company to put together your own mid-term management plan based on the information?"

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you for your question. I think what you've asked about is whether we as one of its shareholders expect that, in the business plan briefing scheduled in March, ONE will give us details of not just fleet development planning but project plans, future funds or cash allocation, among others. Basically when the mid-term management plan is put together, preparations are made so that information like the ones mentioned -- be included. However, there remains an issue of to what extent the information can be disclosed to you. For instance, with regard to operating cash flow or operating profit, it is difficult to envision post-COVID-19 world. This time, we started up our effort by figuring out fleet development and other plans with a mid- to long-term perspective to look into the future of this business, but honestly, if you consider what kind of profit we can expect from this business in fiscal 2022, there was some newspaper report that the calendar year of 2022 may be better than 2021. It is very hard to foresee. Therefore, if we are to fully take into account the business environment in late 2023 and 2024, while many newly built ships are expected to be delivered, it will be extremely difficult to predict what would happen to this business. So given the situation, with both worst case and best case scenarios in mind, while making sure to carry out investments to enable extended [ reproduction ] or business continuity of this business, together with proper profit distribution, maybe dividend payment, ONE will have to come up with its own ESG plan mainly focusing on GHG emission reductions which can be fully accounted for. This is how the preparations are being made for the announcement.

Obviously, to us, ONE is a significant entity, though it is an equity method-applied affiliate. To what extent can we disclose information in March, especially the information about profit, will be relevant both to our company and to the other shareholders in terms of the profit forecast in this [ calendar year, '22 ]. Therefore, we will check what specific information we will be able to disclose and act accordingly. Obviously, as we said, the mid-term management plan for ONE will include business operations, investment plans and capital policies. And in accordance with that, we will put together all the forecasts for fiscal 2022 dividend and outlook for the years beyond. What about the timing of the announcement? We will select the appropriate timing to explain to all of you. Of course, the business of ONE represents a significant portion of the discussions in our own mid-term management plan, as you probably are aware.

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

Let us move to the next question. The next questioner has 2 questions. The first question is about dry bulk. Let me read out the question. "If you can only give me a qualitative answer to this question, that will be fine." The freight rate of dry bulk has been at lower levels. To what extent will it have a negative impact on your earnings in the next fiscal year? Are there any measures you can take to mitigate the negative impact such as reducing exposure vessels; and utilizing FFAs, forward freight agreements?

The other question is about the container ship market in next fiscal year. Let me read out the question. It must be difficult at this moment, but if you were asked to identify upside and downside factors, what would they be?

[Unknown Executive]

Regarding the first question. Obviously this business is susceptible to the market conditions. However, we have carried out structural reforms last fiscal year and have been pursuing stable profits by using FFA. Honestly speaking, up until also this fiscal year, the market have been very high [ but then started ] to be back at the levels seen around 1 year or more before. On the other hand, however, compared to the same period last year, if you focus on the rates of FFAs for January to March and FFAs for April to June, the FFAs for April to June remain relatively high. FFAs for capesize vessels for January to March are below $15,000, while FFAs from April to June are only below $25,000. Last year, they were at similar levels such as around [ $14,000 ]. So as we look at the market in an agile manner, we're working to provide as much support as possible to shore up the profits, so together with generating stable profits through our established relationships with customers, we will also take advantage of FFAs so that we can minimize the financial impact. We would like to decline mentioning quantitative figures such as profit of the dry bulk business in this fiscal year and what that will be when the market goes down the next fiscal year. It is obvious that, if we do not enjoy the kind of high market levels seen last fiscal year, we're bound to be affected by the next year, but we believe we can minimize the impact as much as possible. Furthermore, by taking into account how the current dry bulk and BDI markets compare to those of 1 or 2 years before and what kind of budget we put together, we hope to continue to take measures so that we will be generating stable profit every year or possibly enhance the degree of stability.

I understand the second question is about upside and downside factors of the container ship market that we can identify at this moment. As for the market, we are not yet at the stage where ONE has come up with its profit plan for fiscal 2022 based on its forecasts for the market for fiscal 2022. Therefore, let me give you upside and downside factors that we can identify based [ on our take ] on the fiscal 2021 or current situation, starting with upside factors. [ As evidence sets ], we believe that the rate hikes of annual long-term contracts is bound to take place. In the case of ONE, there are more Japanese customers [ than ] more North American shipping routes in its portfolio and therefore [ the small ] contracts that will be renewed in or after April. Therefore, in terms of the calendar year, there are not so many contracts that can foresee rate hikes at the moment, but those [ presenting high -- rate hikes ] actually have their rates raised exactly as have -- expected. Therefore, considering that the current situation is likely to continue and especially the imbalance of supply and demand is unlikely to be resolved in a short period of time, ahead of the new fiscal year for Japanese companies and [ SC ] negotiations in May, we should be able to capture the opportunities to raise rates to a certain extent. If that is the case, we can expect the annual contracts will be higher in rates in fiscal 2022 than in fiscal 2021. However, one cautionary note that I should share with you is that, depending on what would happen to spot contracts, the annual contracts are not 100% guaranteed for the full year, which is a reality of the current liner market. Therefore, the upside I just mentioned remains upside only for now and may be subject to change.

As for the downside factors, [ one is what happened to this ] currently unusually high spot market and the sheer size of the gap between the supply and demand in the spot market, especially in the Pacific and North American routes. The demand is still 20% to 30% higher than it was pre COVID-19. As for the supply, though there are vessels available, they cannot be deployed as liner vessels, as represented by Long Beach and Los Angeles where there are [ cold conditions ], so the actual availability [ of the ] vessel capacity has been smaller compared to the number of vessels available. Both of those factors are driving the wide gap currently observed. And I believe that, if either of the issues is resolved, the supply and demand could become balanced at some point in time, causing the spot freight rates to move significantly. And we can expect this to happen in fiscal 2022. And depending on how we forecast this, we will determine how we put together the budget. And we will have a significant impact on long-term contracts. In that sense, this will potentially become a downside factor. In reality, since the beginning of the year, if you look at the media reports, the number of ships waiting off Long Beach and Los Angeles has not changed, but if you look at the weekly number of port workers at terminals in Los Angeles and Long Beach that had to isolate themselves from work due to Omicron variant, that's been declining to about 1/3 of the peak, indicating that the labor force is making a recovery. But I do not believe this will immediately lead to the drop in the number of ships waiting. And for now, the level of such ships has not changed and remains around 100. Therefore, we will be closely watching those numbers to see how this manifests itself as a downside to operate our business going forward.

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

Let us move to the next questions. The next questioner also has 2 questions. The first one is about logistics. Let me read out the question. The profit of logistics business in the fourth quarter is assumed to go down significantly from the third quarter. [ Particularly this the background ], are there any changes that are happening such as a decline in unit prices? The second question is about air cargo and logistics. Let me read out the question. The biggest driver for the current strong performance is the improved profitability due to the rise in unit prices, but once [ the soaring unit ] prices settle down to some extent, how much profit are these businesses capable of generating? "If there is any yardstick you can give us, that will be appreciated."

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you for your question. The first question is you're concerned that the profit of the logistics business in the fourth quarter seems to be lower than that of the third quarter or in the previous periods. The first is seasonal factor. This is true in asset-type business as well, but in the case of Japan, in the fourth quarter, there are new year holidays. And in Chinese-speaking regions, there are Chinese New Year holidays. Therefore, we believe there is a seasonal factor to be incorporated, and we do assume a decline in demand to some extent. As for the unit price decline, as we see in our asset-type businesses as well, the current surge in spot rates, regardless ocean or airfreight, they're expected to subside to a certain extent. And this will impact the logistics business in terms of both selling and buying prices. And we expect the unit prices and gross margin to settle down gradually. So this is one of the factors. Moreover, although they are a bit minor, not big in their impacts, some SG&A expenses and onetime expenses tend to be incurred in the fourth quarter's. So taking all these together, our assumption for the fourth quarter is a bit lower than the third quarter.

As for the air cargo and AFF or airfreight forwarding businesses, the profit margin is currently very high, but as the unit price goes down going forward, what kind of profit levels we should expect, was the second question. I cannot give you any specific numbers now, but for example, we figured that YLK business could become challenging in terms of demand due to COVID-19. And therefore, we have been taking significant measures to become leaner and more cost competitive. Therefore, even if the airfreight returns to the pre-COVID-19 level, we have been preparing ourselves to make sure that we will not end up getting back to where we were, but we would like to decline giving you specific numbers for the profit levels we expect when the airfreight goes back to the pre-COVID-19 levels. Well, in any case, higher profitability is not [ mainly ] because of the increase in unit prices but also from our efforts to enhance our cost competitiveness. In other words, the profit being generated currently is partly due to the efforts to improve NCA's air cargo business, though it mainly depends on how flights are operated. Therefore, we are making preparations so that it is not going to be the case that, if the unit prices go back to pre-COVID-19 levels, our profit will also go back to pre-COVID-19 levels.

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

Let us move on to the next question. Next question is pertaining to the air cargo business. Let me read out the question. With air cargo, why was transport demand down in the third quarter compared to the second quarter even though the demand grew during the period for competitors? Could you please explain why the trend differs?

[Unknown Executive]

The question was why the transport volume was lower in the third quarter than in the second quarter in air cargo. Regarding NCA, when the operations' schedule was changed to a winter schedule, some flights had to be canceled because of fatigue or constrained working conditions. This reduced the number of flights to some extent. In addition, due to strict quarantine measures imposed on the ground staff and cabin crew in Shanghai, China, aircrafts were unable to carry cargo, thus the number of flights is significantly reduced. This lowered our supply capacity, reducing the transport volume in the third quarter. These are the main reasons. The [ latter ] factor will be rectified as the new variant infections lower and quarantine eases. However, regarding the fatigue issue, because it involves [ roles ], working conditions will only tighten. The question is how to raise operating rate under the tight working conditions going forward. It is not that the market underwent a sea change and that NCA was unable to capture cargo demand in the third quarter.

Regarding the unit price, this is rather an industry-wide issue. The overall capacity will go down on a relative scale. In your question, you mentioned some competitors increased their volume. However, overall, flights from China remained very tight, limiting available capacity in the third quarter. I hope that this answers your question.

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

Thank you. And we received an additional question. Let me read out the question. The transport volume was down in the third quarter, as you mentioned. What is your assumption for the fourth quarter forecast?

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you for the additional question. For the fourth quarter, we see no signs for the 2 factors to drastically improve, so our assumption is that we need to navigate within the limited capacity. In terms of available capacity or the number of flights, the fourth quarter will not be much higher than the third quarter. Having said that, during new year holiday seasons both in Japan and China, the number of flights may go down. Those seasonal factors are fully reflected in the forecasts. However, the Chinese quarantine issue is likely to persist and does not warrant optimism that flight frequencies could recover to pre-COVID levels.

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

We received the other question pertaining to ONE. Let me read out the question. How does ONE compare with others in terms of profit, transport volume and services in the third quarter?

[Unknown Executive]

As for ONE numbers, we review KPIs, including EBITDA, in absolute term; and the EBITDA-to-sales ratio on a quarterly basis to compare with others. However, we are yet to fully conduct such analysis for the fourth quarter. Looking at the current trend, though, the overall trajectory seems to remain unchanged. Against [ Hapag-Lloyd ], which is of a similar scale, we compare absolute numbers. With Maersk and CMA, which are of a different scale and whose numbers are disclosed, we use a ratio for our comparison. As for the third quarter, the quarterly KPI trend is likely to remain the same. In particular, we outperformed European shipping companies in terms of the results during the last 3 months. Regarding the available capacity for the third quarter and upcoming fourth quarter, we are concerned that the alliance service is susceptible to the impact of the west coast terminals. Because of the lack of ability to arrange substituting ships or the absence of such in the market, it is difficult for us to secure enough number of vessels or to arrange substituting vessels for the capacity we commit ourselves. We may therefore be outperformed by other alliances or other companies. We would like to do our utmost to secure enough space at ONE to satisfy customers. I hope that this answers your question.

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

Next questioner has 2 questions on NCA. Let me read out the questions. First, what is the NCA capacity outlook for fiscal 2022? Second, according to the NCA forecast for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2021, revenue increase will be directly translated into profit increase. What are the factors behind that forecast?

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you for the questions. Regarding the NCA capacity projection for fiscal 2022, as you are aware, our fleet consists of 8 747-8F aircrafts. In addition, we work with [ Atlas ] in the U.S. and a European company under ACMI contracts. Utilizing those spaces, we arrange liners, extra flights and cross-trade flights. The overall picture remains the same for fiscal 2022 versus 2021. No substantial change is expected. Regarding the capacity for fiscal 2022, the operations scheduled for the spring is finalized, but the winter schedule is not. However, we see no major change on the horizon in terms of the capacity for NCA. The renewal of the charter flight contract may slightly affect the capacity, but no major change is expected.

Pertaining to your second question. Does revenue increase equal profit increase in the fourth quarter? The unit price remains higher than expected for the air cargo business in general. As the price hovers, we can enjoy revenue and profit increase. That will be a significant contributor in both revenue and profit for the fourth quarter as well. Air cargo enjoyed robust demand year-on-year since the fall of last year. One is a cyclical factor elevating the air cargo demand. Another factor is ocean freight being shifted to airfreight, although it is difficult to predict as to how long it is -- it will last. Because of disruptive container shipping operations, substantial cargoes are shifting from ocean freight to airfreight. In terms of the overall air cargo capacity, as I mentioned earlier, the Chinese' stricter quarantine measures to stem the further spread of the new variant Omicron is limiting the number of flights from China. This substantially reduces the overall air cargo capacity, thus the yield remains higher than expected. Those are the positive factors on profits. I hope that this answers your question.

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

Because of the time constraints, the next one will be the last question. The question is pertaining to dividend and shareholder return. Let me read out the question. "Your basic policy sets the dividend payout ratio at 25%, and the possibility of share buyback is being examined." The dividend payout ratio which was 19%, when dividend grows at the end of the first half, increased to 22%, where the dividend increased this time. What is the message behind the 3% increase in dividend payout ratio?

[久保田 浩司, executive]

Thank you for your question. As you pointed out, dividend payout ratio is expected to be 21.8% or 22%. There is no particular message behind the change from 19% to 22%. As I mentioned earlier, we currently enjoy favorable profit levels and significant upward revisions. The situation makes it difficult to reasonably project our future outlook. After due deliberation, we proposed a JPY 400 increase to JPY 1,000 as year-end dividend, reflecting JPY 930 billion in profit. The full year dividend is planned to be JPY 1,200. There is no significant meaning behind the 3% increase in dividend payout ratio; rather, absolute amounts of dividend, dividend yield as well as our vision for the future, as I mentioned before. We made a shareholder return proposal accordingly. In May, we will make our proposal on shareholder return for the year. With that, we'd like to solicit your comprehensive assessment. We are cognizant that there are many dividend-related opinions both internally and externally. We would like to continue the dialogue with you and keep discussing the matter internally upon consultation with outside [ directors ]. I hope that answers your question.

[Shuichiro Shimomura, executive]

These are all the questions we have for today. Thank you very much for taking time out of your busy schedule to attend our briefing online.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]