Nippon Yusen KK

TSE:9101

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q3

[Hitoshi Nagasawa, executive]

Hello, I am NYK Line President, Hitoshi Nagasawa.

Before I begin my explanation of the financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2021, I would like to comment briefly on the accident at our consolidated subsidiary, Nippon Cargo Airlines.

As reported in the news, the Boeing 747-8F (JA13KZ), operated by Nippon Cargo Airlines, arrived in Narita Airport from Hong Kong on February 1. And during the post-arrival inspection, a scratch measuring 90 centimeters wide and 3 meters long was found on the rear end of the aircraft.

The next day, on February 2, notification was received from the Civil Aviation Bureau of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism that the incident corresponds to an aviation accident. Concerning the cause of this scrape, we need to wait for the results of the investigation conducted by the Transportation Safety Board and Aviation Accident Investigator. And Nippon Cargo Airlines will fully cooperate with the investigation conducted by the Ministry of the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.

The incidents should not have a major impact on the NYK Group's financial results in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2021. I sincerely apologize to all of our stakeholders for the great inconvenience this incident has caused.

I would now like to begin my explanation of the financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2021, starting with an overview of the results. This year started under the cloud of the COVID-19 pandemic, but under a motto of, "keep the logistics lifeline open, " our group continued to maintain the business operations in each workplace.

Initially, COVID-19 was expected to have a significant impact in the first quarter, followed by a gradual recovery from the second quarter and a period of certain calm in the third quarter. The business was conducted based on this assumption, but general consumer goods, in particular, containerized cargo, recovered well beyond expectations in the third quarter. Car carriers performed as expected, with a relatively large impact in the first quarter, gradual recovery from the second quarter and slightly lower volumes compared to last year in the third quarter. As a result, looking at the third quarter alone, revenue was about JPY 424 billion, which is roughly on par with last year, and recurring profit was about JPY 75 billion.

Within Global Logistics, ONE in the Liner Trade segment, NCA in the Air Cargo Transportation segment and the Logistics segment achieved profits of about JPY 60 billion. As stated earlier, the greater-than-expected cargo volumes led to the high profit. On the other hand, Bulk Shipping was firm as expected, and I feel it regained good form. In particular, car carriers returned to normal, and the structural reforms in dry bulk provided a lift, leading to profits of about JPY 14 billion in the third quarter. As a result, on a consolidated basis, recurring profit amounted to about JPY 75 billion in total, which is close to a record-high profit on a quarterly basis.

Now let's take a look at the materials provided. Please turn first to Page 3. Shown here is a comparison of the first 9 months of this year and the same period last year. During the first and second quarter, revenue was about JPY 100 billion lower due to weakness in the Bulk Shipping segment, including car carriers. Concerning recurring profit, as I mentioned earlier, profit significantly improved in the Liner Trade, Air Cargo Transportation and Logistics segments, and profit was JPY 83.6 billion higher compared to last year.

Also concerning the extraordinary profit and loss through the third quarter, further structural reforms to the Dry Bulk business were carried out in the third quarter. And similar to the second quarter, an extraordinary loss was again recorded in the third quarter, amounting to a total of JPY 54.7 billion for the year-to-date. The expenses were for restructuring the unchartered medium and large dry bulk carriers.

The following is a summary by segment. Concerning ONE in the Liner Trade segment, I believe that ONE, MOL and "K" Line have already provided an explanation of the results. But in short, cargo volumes have exceeded expectations from the second quarter. This led to an extremely tight supply of empty containers as well as a greater-than-anticipated rise in freight rates.

In the Air Cargo Transportation segment, the ongoing suspension and cancellation of passenger flights since the beginning of the year has caused the supply of space to fall, resulting in higher freight rates. Compared to last year, profits have significantly improved from a loss of JPY 13.4 billion last year to a profit of JPY 24.6 billion this year.

Please turn to Page 4. Concerning the Logistics segment, as I mentioned earlier, cargo volumes have greatly increased and in particular, the higher freight rates for Air Cargo has led to rising margins. Overall, profit improved from JPY 4.3 billion last year to JPY 17.4 billion this year. On the other hand, recurring profit in the Bulk Shipping segment declined from JPY 34.8 billion last year to JPY 14.1 billion this year. Certainly, car carriers had a very large impact on the results.

Looking at the detailed vehicle transportation figures on a completion of loading basis, volumes fell by 50% in the first quarter, 30% in the second quarter and 4% in the third quarter. Volumes were greatly lower in the first and second quarters. Also in dry bulk, unfortunately, compared to last year, the market conditions were extremely challenging during the first half. On the other hand, Energy transport remained firm.

Moving on to Page 5, shown here are the profit and loss figures at each step. In total, for the first 9 months of the fiscal year ending March 2021, revenue was slightly less than JPY 1,150 billion, operating profit was about JPY 48 billion and recurring profit was JPY 122 billion. Net income was JPY 52.3 billion. The year-on-year difference is shown in the column on the right.

Next, please turn to Page 6. Shown here is a comparison by segment. Much of it repeats what I have already said, so I do not have much to add. However, as shown here, of the total recurring profit of JPY 122 billion in the year-to-date, Global Logistics, which includes the Liner Trade, Air Cargo Transportation and Logistics, accounts for about JPY 110 billion in total. The strong results in these 3 segments this year have supported the bottom line.

Also, just to add 1 other remark, as shown here, Bulk Shipping achieved a profit of about JPY 14 billion. The fact that a year-to-date profit of about JPY 14 billion was achieved despite the large drop in transportation volumes in car carriers shows, I believe, the stability of our business.

Page 7 shows a waterfall graph, but I will not provide any explanation of the figures here.

Please turn to Page 8. Shown here is the full year forecast, which is something I think most of you are interested in. As can be seen in the full year forecast here, recurring profit has been revised up by JPY 90 billion from JPY 70 billion in the previous forecast to JPY 160 billion now. Concerning extraordinary profit and loss, as has already been notified in the timely disclosure, the forecast includes the gain on sale of real estate in Minato Mirai. Also, net income was previously forecast to be JPY 35 billion, but it has been revised up to JPY 90 billion. In line with this, based on our dividend policy of a minimum dividend of JPY 20 per share and a payout -- a basic payout ratio of 25%, we are planning to issue a full year dividend of JPY 130 per share. An interim dividend of JPY 20 has already been paid, so the year-end dividend will be JPY 110.

Now let's take a look at the forecast for each segment, which formed the basis for the full year forecast. Stated here is the change in the figures from the previous announcement. Given that the third quarter results have already been announced, I believe most investors will focus on the difference and change between the third quarter results and fourth quarter forecast, so I will talk mainly on this point.

Please turn to Page 11. Looking at the full year forecast by segment shown on Page 11, the third and fourth quarter figures in each segment are quite different. Specifically, in the Liner Trade, recurring profit is expected to fall from JPY 40 billion in the third quarter to JPY 33.5 billion in the fourth quarter. In Air Cargo Transportation, profit will fall from JPY 11.4 billion in the third quarter to JPY 4.3 billion in the fourth quarter. In Logistics, profit will fall from JPY 9.3 billion in the third quarter to JPY 3.6 billion in the fourth quarter. In Bulk Shipping, profit will fall from JPY 13.9 billion in the third quarter to JPY 0.3 billion in the fourth quarter. Overall, recurring profit is forecast to fall from JPY 74.6 billion in the third quarter to JPY 37.9 billion in the fourth quarter.

You may be wondering what is behind this change, allow me to explain. First, in the Liner Trade, in which recurring profit is forecast to fall from JPY 40 billion to JPY 33.5 billion, the major trends are not expected to change. However, Chinese New Year will have an impact, and there are also uncertainties such as the congestion in the harbor in inland areas, as has already been reported in the news. The forecast reflects these factors, and it is also based on the figures determined by ONE.

In the Air Cargo Transportation segment, recurring profit is forecast to fall from JPY 11.4 to JPY 4.3 billion. For Air Cargo, the third quarter is the peak season when cargo shipments are at their highest, and freight rates remain high given the strong volumes. In the fourth quarter, cargo volumes will likely fall. And although there is not expected to be any major collapse in the supply and demand balance, due also in part to the impact of Chinese New Year, recurring profit is forecast to fall from JPY 11.4 billion to JPY 4.3 billion.

In Logistics, too, the business is largely linked to Air Cargo and given this, recurring profit is forecast to fall from JPY 9.3 billion in the third quarter to JPY 3.6 billion in the fourth quarter. Senior Managing Executive Officer, Hiroki Harada, will provide a more detailed explanation later.

The largest decline will be in Bulk Shipping, where recurring profit is forecast to fall from JPY 13.9 billion in the third quarter to JPY 0.3 billion in the fourth quarter. The main factor is Energy Transportation. As stated here, the contract for the drillship operating in Brazil will be renewed. In other words, this asset will be revised, and we expect a loss to occur on the recurring profit level. In addition to this large impact, taking into consideration the extremely weak VLCC market and a drop in the VLGC market, profit is expected to greatly decline in Energy Transport from the third quarter through the fourth quarter.

Also in Dry Bulk, although the structural reforms are having some effect, the market itself will likely fall in the fourth quarter, and this has been incorporated into the forecast. Concerning car carriers, the business has basically been recovering. But due in part to lower vehicle production caused by a shortage of semiconductor chips, the business is expected to be slightly weak. As a result of these factors, overall, recurring profit in Bulk Shipping as a whole is forecast to fall from JPY 13.9 billion to JPY 0.3 billion. However, the drillship revision I just mentioned is a onetime event and will not have an impact on the results next year.

Lastly, I will provide a summary of the financial results forecast. To again touch on the full year forecast of the profit at each level shown on Page 10, revenue is forecast to be JPY 1,540 billion. This is JPY 120 billion lower than last year, due in part to the weakness in the Car Carrier business in the first half. Operating profit is forecast to be JPY 57 billion, up JPY 10.8 billion from last year. And recurring profit is forecast to be JPY 160 billion, up JPY 115.6 billion from last year. Net income is forecast to be JPY 90 billion, an increase of JPY 58.9 billion compared to last year.

Page 11 shows the full year forecast for each segment that we looked at earlier. Fiscal year 2020 ending March 31, 2021, will end in 2 months. We benefited as a 38% owner of ONE in the company's strong performance based on the high container freight rates backed by rising demand in America, Europe and elsewhere for general consumer goods, such as household electronics and furniture, which is often referred to as stay-at-home demand.

Also in Air Cargo Transportation, as I have stated many times, although JAL and ANA are facing an extremely difficult business environment and there is no joy in that situation, the decline in passenger flights has led to increased demand for cargo planes and higher freight rates, realizing strong results.

In Logistics, too, there were fears that shipments of general consumer goods would be sluggish, but as stated when explaining the Liner Trade, these shipments have been extremely strong. And also due in part to stay-at-home demand in e-commerce, the figures in the Logistics segment have been good.

Bulk Shipping, as I have stated already, performed generally as expected. Given the drop in vehicle volumes and the weak dry bulk market in the first half, the current results are, in many ways, unavoidable. However, directed at next year, as stated in the materials provided, the structural reforms in the Dry Bulk business are expected to have a positive impact of about JPY 10 billion on a full year basis, so we should be able to head into next year without having to dig out from any major holes created this year.

This ends my very brief explanation of the financial results. Thank you for your time.