Nippon Yusen KK

TSE:9101

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q1

[久保田 浩司, executive]

To begin, I will provide an explanation of the first quarter results for the fiscal year ending March 2022.

You should have in front of you the presentation materials and physical statement announced today. Primarily, the presentation materials will be used, and I will provide an overview of the first quarter results, full year forecast, and status of each segment.

In the first quarter, revenue was JPY 504.6 billion, operating profit was JPY 53 billion, and recurring profit and income were both over JPY 150 billion. These excellent results exceeded our initial forecast.

For the full year, we expect to achieve revenue of JPY 1,850 billion, operating profit of JPY 150 billion, and recurring profit and net income of JPY 500 billion. Based on these results, we plan to issue an interim dividend of JPY 200 and a year-end dividend of JPY 500 for a full year dividend of JPY 700.

Moving on. Using the presentation materials, I will provide an overview of the first quarter results followed by the full year forecast.

Please turn to Page 3 in the presentation materials for the first quarter results. In the first quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2022, revenue was JPY 504.6 billion. Since transferring the Liner business to Ocean Network Express, ONE, in fiscal 2018, quarterly revenue has never been above JPY 500 billion. And this is the first time to exceed JPY 500 billion.

As you can see, higher revenue in the Logistics and Bulk Shipping segments had a major impact. Recurring profit and net income both exceeded JPY 150 billion. On the recurring profit level, profit significantly increased in the Liner and Logistics business.

In the Bulk Shipping business, a loss was recorded in the same period last year while this year, the bottom line improved and the business returned to profitability.

Last year started under the cloud of the COVID-19 pandemic. Initially, we forecast profit to break even. But through the efforts to do whatever it takes to achieve a profit, we recorded a profit of JPY 11.6 billion in the first quarter.

Subsequently, profit increased to JPY 30 billion, JPY 75 billion, and JPY 90 billion. The first quarter recurring profit of JPY 153.6 billion this year exceeded even the fourth quarter profit last year of JPY 93.2 billion. This is an increase of JPY 60 billion.

The higher profit in Liner and Logistics, which includes ONE in the Liner business, and NCA and YLK in the Logistics business, as well as the improvement in the Bulk Shipping business, led to the better results compared to the fourth quarter last year.

The overview continues on Page 4. Shown here is a breakdown by segment of the JPY 153.6 billion recurring profit. As stated, profit in the Liner segment increased by more than JPY 100 billion compared to the same period last year.

In container shipping, which refers mainly to Ocean Network Express, the robust transportation demand resulted in liftings increasing by almost 20% year-on-year. Short-term freight rates remained at high levels and long-term freight also rose, leading to the extremely strong results.

In the Air Cargo segment too, while the supply and demand balance remained tight as a result of the continued suspension and cancellation of international passenger flights due to the ongoing impact of COVID-19, freight rate stayed high on support from strong cargo volumes from Japan. In addition, some of the ocean freight was shifted to airfreight due to a lack of container shipping space and by capturing this demand, recurring profit in the first quarter exceeded JPY 15 billion, which is an extremely high level.

Please turn now to Page 5. Shown here are the Logistics and Bulk Shipping segments. The Logistics segment recorded recurring profit of JPY 11.5 billion, up about JPY 9 billion year-on-year. The profit levels are improving in ocean freight. And in the airfreight business, along with the tighter supply and demand balance mentioned earlier, some of the ocean freight is being shifted to airfreight, driving the strong results. The Logistics business was supported by strong demand.

In the Bulk Shipping segment, recurring profit improved from a loss of JPY 1.1 billion in the first quarter last year to a profit of JPY 16 billion this year.

In the car carrier division, shipping volumes increased. As I will discuss in more detail later, there is still concerns in relation to the semiconductor chip shortage but the impact on handling volumes was limited in the first quarter.

In the dry bulk division, market levels trended at high levels. The first quarter BDI last year was only 766, a level significantly under 1,000. But this year, it was around 2,800. The market level for each vessel type were extremely high.

On the other hand, in the Energy division, during the first quarter last year, falling oil prices created unique demand for large tankers as floating storage, which pushed market levels greatly higher. But in the first quarter this year, the division was partially affected by the weak market.

However, we only have a limited number of spot vessels that are subject to market volatility. In the Energy division, LNG carriers and offshore business are based on medium to long-term contracts, so the performance was steady.

Moving on to Page 6. As a result of the factors I just explained, revenue in the first quarter exceeded JPY 500 billion, and we were able to achieve recurring profit and net income of more than JPY 150 billion. As you can see in the figures here, recurring profit increased by JPY 137 billion from the JPY 16.5 billion recorded in the first quarter last year.

Please turn now to Page 7. Shown here is a year-on-year comparison by segment. As stated, recurring profit on a consolidated basis was JPY 153.6 billion. Of this amount, the Liner segment accounted for JPY 110 billion, Air Cargo for JPY 15 billion, and Logistics for JPY 11.5 billion. Also, Bulk Shipping returned to profitability from the loss recorded last year.

Moving on to Page 8. Shown here is an analysis of the factors by business. Definitely, profit improved due to the improved market conditions in the Liner segment, which includes ONE and the Bulk Shipping segment. As a result, we were able to achieve truly great results.

This ends my overview of the first quarter results.

Please turn to Page 9. Shown here is the forecast for this year. For the full year, we expect revenue of JPY 1,850 billion and recurring profit and net income of JPY 500 billion. When announcing the financial results on May 10, we forecast recurring profit and net income to be JPY 140 billion. So the current forecast is an upward revision of JPY 360 billion. Based on these expected results, we plan to issue a full year dividend of JPY 700 per share to be paid as a JPY 200 interim dividend and a JPY 500 year-end dividend.

Regarding the forecast for each segment, please turn first to Page 10. Compared to the forecast announced when reporting the full year results for fiscal 2020, the Liner segment forecast has been revised up by JPY 290 billion from JPY 57 billion to JPY 348.5 billion.

At Ocean Network Express, in the container shipping division, given the recent strong transportation demand and supply chain disruptions, it is still unclear when the supply and demand balance will normalize. But this year's forecast has been formulated on the premise that it will gradually normalize from the third quarter.

As I will explain further when presenting the financial results for Ocean Network Express, the company expects to achieve a profit of JPY 6 billion after taxes in the first half.

Regarding the full year forecast, because ONE is still unable to formulate a rational forecast, the full year forecast for fiscal 2021 is yet to be finalized. However, based on the information we have received from Ocean Network Express and the outlook formulated internally, as just mentioned, we, at NYK, have formulated a forecast for ONE based on the premise that the situation will gradually normalize from the third quarter.

Regarding Air Cargo, recurring profit is forecast to be JPY 41 billion, an upward revision of JPY 21 billion from the previous forecast. International passenger flights continue to be canceled and suspended, but we expect these flights to gradually return from the fourth quarter.

Also, although the container shipping supply and demand balance will start to normalize and the shifting of ocean freight to airfreight will settle down, we are still forecasting a very high profit of JPY 41 billion this year.

Please turn now to Page 11 for the Logistics and Bulk Shipping forecast. The Logistics segment is expected to achieve recurring profit of JPY 34 billion, an upward revision of JPY 22 billion. Profit in the ocean freight, air freight, and Logistics businesses all remain at high levels.

Concerning ocean freight, we expect handling volumes to gradually settle down from the second half and we will continue flexible marketing based on the demand.

In the airfreight business, handling volumes have increased compared to the previous forecast, and this will generate profit.

In the Logistics business, efforts are being made to stabilize earnings through a review of the contracts and by cutting costs. As a result, the overall Logistics segment is forecast to achieve recurring profit of JPY 34 billion.

In the Bulk Shipping segment, full year profit was previously forecast to be JPY 54 billion, but it has been revised up by JPY 26 billion to JPY 80 billion.

Within the 3 divisions, there are concerns in the car carrier division in relation to the insufficient production of semiconductor chips and spreading COVID infections right now in Asia. However, shipping volumes are expected to increase compared to the previous forecast and the profit forecast here incorporates that increase.

In the dry bulk division, the market assumptions for all vessels have been revised up from the previous forecast. Currently, the markets are trending at extremely high levels. And although they are expected to soften somewhat due to seasonal factors, given that they will likely outperform regular years, it will have a positive impact on the performance of the business.

In the Energy division, the ongoing weakness in the VLCC market is having some impact. But in our case, I am certain that performance will remain stable based on the medium- to long-term contracts in the LNG carriers and offshore business.

Moving on to Page 12. Shown here is a summary of the points I have just explained. To repeat myself, full year revenue is forecast to be JPY 1,850 billion, operating profit will be JPY 150 billion, and recurring profit, net income will be JPY 500 billion.

Last year's recurring profit of JPY 215.3 billion and net income of JPY 139.2 billion were record highs. And based on the current forecast, we are expect to set new record highs again this year.

Please turn to Page 13. Shown here is the forecast for each segment and a comparison with last year. Recurring profit is forecast to be JPY 500 billion and of this, the Liner segment, which includes ONE, will account for about 70% with a profit of almost JPY 350 billion, followed by Air Cargo with JPY 41 billion, Logistics with JPY 34 billion, and Bulk Shipping with JPY 80 billion. Overall, it is a huge improvement compared to the results last year.

Looking at the quarterly performance in the Bulk Shipping segment, which was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic last year, a loss of JPY 1.1 billion was recorded in the first quarter followed by a profit of JPY 1.3 billion in the second quarter for an almost breakeven performance. This year, profit is forecast to be JPY 48.5 billion in the first half and JPY 31.5 billion in the second half for a full year recurring profit of JPY 80 billion.

Moving on to Page 14. Shown there is a comparison of the current full year forecast and previous full year forecast announced on May 10. Recurring profit has been revised up from JPY 140 billion to JPY 500 billion. This is an increase of JPY 360 billion.

Of this amount, the Liner segment and ONE account for about JPY 290 billion. Air Cargo and Logistics have each been revised up by a little over JPY 20 billion, and Bulk Shipping has been revised up by JPY 26 billion for a total upward revision of JPY 360 billion, resulting in the current recurring profit forecast of JPY 500 billion.

This is our forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2022. As stated at the opening today, based on this forecast, we plan to issue an interim dividend of JPY 200 and a year-end dividend of JPY 500 for a full year dividend of JPY 700.

Starting from Page 15 is the appendix containing more information on the status of each segment. Without going into too much detail, I would like to explain the main points for each segment.

Please turn first to Page 16 for an overview of the Air Cargo Transportation segment, which is NCA. Looking at yield, located the second up from the bottom, it is forecast to be 131 in the first half and 122 in the second half for a full year average of 127.

In the previous forecast, yield was expected to be in the mid-90s. So the tighter supply and demand relationship as a result of the shift of some ocean freight to airfreight, as mentioned earlier, has pushed yield, which refers to the freight rates up to high levels.

Please turn to Page 17. Shown here is an overview of the Logistics segment, which is used in Logistics. Airfreight handling volumes are expected to increase. Air exports on a weight basis are forecast to be 199,000 tons in the first half and 183,000 tons in the second half. This is a full year increase of 76,000 tons from the previous forecast and will be one of the drivers of the business performance.

Page 18 shows an overview of the dry bulk and tanker market trends in the Bulk Shipping segment. Looking at the figures, for the first half, as stated earlier, the BDI index fell below 800 in the first half last year. In the first quarter this year, it was 2,800 and for the full year, it is forecast to be 2,405. Given that it was previously forecast to be 1,563, the markets are currently expected to remain very strong.

The trends are similar for each vessel type. And following the extremely high market levels in the first quarter and the second quarter, the markets are expected to soften in the second half due to seasonal factors but they will remain at high levels compared to regular years.

On the other hand, VLCC rates exceeded $90,000 in the first quarter last year but they fell to negative levels this year. This is a huge difference.

Going forward, the market is not expected to improve much with rates forecast to be $5,000 in the second quarter compared to the extremely low $200 level in the fourth quarter last year. The market is gradually improving, but it is expected to be weaker than last year.

Please turn to Page 19 for an overview of the car carrier division. As can be seen here, shipping volumes in the first half of the fiscal year ending March 2021 were much lower than the previous year due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thereafter, volumes have recovered, and they are forecast to be 2.21 million cars in the second half of this year. This is generally unchanged from 2 years ago in fiscal 2019. Currently, shipping volumes are expected to increase compared to the previous forecast.

The remaining pages are the financial results for ONE. And here too, I will only briefly explain the main points.

Please turn to Page 3 of ONE's financial results for a comparison of the first quarter results with last year. Profit this year was extremely high at $2.56 billion after taxes. In the analysis of the factors, freight rates account for nearly all of the improvement, and these results have been achieved with freight rates greatly exceeding the forecast.

Moving on to Page 4 of ONE's presentation materials. As stated just now, the freight rate index on the North America and Europe trades in the first quarter last year were 110 and 106, respectively. This year, they were 185 on the North America trade and more than 3x higher on the Europe trade. This is higher than even the levels in the fourth quarter.

Within the current business environment. In regards to the COVID-19 impact and countermeasures at ONE, as shown on Page 5, the same is true at NYK, but the seafarers are working extremely hard while providing strong support. We, at NYK, as well as ONE, will strive to fulfill our responsibility to maintain the social infrastructure.

Concerning crew changes, they remain difficult to arrange, and through various measures such as vessel deviations and changing the crew rotation schedule, we will fulfill our social mission of keeping the logistics lifelines open.

The same is true with the effort being given by everyone working in the frontline operations in Air Cargo and Logistics, I'm very grateful for their effort, and we will continue to provide support.

Please turn now to Page 6. Shown here is the full year forecast. And as stated earlier, the profit after taxes is expected to be $6,000 million, or $6 billion in the first half.

Regarding the full year forecast, because the COVID-19 situation remains uncertain, ONE is unable to formulate a rational forecast. So it has yet to be finalized.

Page 7 shows the actions being taken to increase competitiveness. These include improvements to the products, initiatives for digitalization, and initiatives for becoming carbon-free. These initiatives aim to achieve net zero emissions. And as set forth in our ESG story, carbon-free is viewed to be a major issue for the maritime industry, including ONE. In addition, actions are being taken for ship management and support is being given to the seafarers for crew changes within the current travel restrictions.

The last page shows the fleet structure and service structure for your reference.

This ends my brief explanation of the first quarter results. Thank you for your time.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]