Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd

TSE:8801

Earnings Call Analysis

Mitsui Fudosan's steady progress amidst declining half-year profits

Mitsui Fudosan reported a slight drop in operating revenue for the first half of the fiscal year, down 0.2% to JPY 1,162.4 billion. Despite lower profits due to high previous year comparisons, key segments showed strength with leasing at over 50% and management at 57%. The company maintained full-year forecasts, predicting JPY 96 billion in property sales to domestic individuals, but expected around JPY 15 billion in losses from overseas property sales. Their interim dividend remains at JPY 15, reflecting strong absolute earnings despite year-on-year declines.

Quarterly Overview

Mitsui Fudosan reported its results for the first half of fiscal 2024, revealing a mixed performance compared to the previous year. Operating revenue totaled JPY 1,162.4 billion, slightly down by JPY 2.8 billion or 0.2% year-on-year. However, despite these decreases, the company asserted that their absolute earnings remained robust, second only to the record high achieved the previous year. Business income fell by 6.4% year-on-year to JPY 173.1 billion, while profit attributable to owners of the parent decreased significantly by 31.7%, amounting to JPY 88.3 billion.

Segment Performance

Focusing on specific business segments, the leasing segment reported steady progress, contributing JPY 419.7 billion in operating revenue, an increase of JPY 20.7 billion year-on-year. Yet, business income in this segment decreased by JPY 3.2 billion. A notable highlight was the improvement in the metropolitan area office vacancy rate, which fell to 2.4% from 2.5%. The company expects this vacancy rate to further improve to around the mid-1% level by fiscal year-end. Meanwhile, the property sales segment was more challenging, with a year-on-year decline in both revenue (down JPY 51.9 billion) and business income (down JPY 17 billion). However, sales to domestic individuals showed positive momentum, boasting operating revenue of JPY 203.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of JPY 37.6 billion.

Extraordinary Gains and Future Outlook

Mitsui Fudosan outlined its full year forecast anticipating extraordinary gains of JPY 85 billion, stemming from the sale of tangible assets. Despite current challenges, they believe that substantial profits from property sales to investors in the second half will help meet annual forecasts. Additionally, they reported a total net loss of JPY 15 billion expected from overseas sales of properties, particularly in the U.S. and China. However, domestic prospects appear favorable, with significant progress expected on property sales to individual clients. As of September, the contract rate for new domestic condominiums hit 97%, illustrating strong demand.

Balance Sheet and Debt Management

By the end of the second quarter, the outstanding balance of interest-bearing debt stood at JPY 4,901.4 billion, reflecting an increase of JPY 471 billion from the previous fiscal year-end. Approximately 20% of this increase was attributable to foreign exchange rate changes. The company's debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio was reported at 1.56x, with an equity ratio of 31.5%. Mitsui Fudosan is confident about achieving its initial forecast, highlighting that by fiscal year-end, they expect to reduce debt to around JPY 4.4 trillion. This ongoing focus on balance sheet management emphasizes their strategy to enhance financial stability as they navigate through current market conditions.

Interim Dividends

In line with the company’s financial expectations, the interim dividend has been set at JPY 15 per share, reflecting their commitment to returning value to shareholders despite the fluctuation in net income year-on-year. This decision indicates confidence in the company's overall business strategy and long-term financial health.

Earnings Call Transcript 2025-Q2

[Atsuro Uchida, executive]

Good afternoon, everyone. I am Uchida, Executive Manager of Investor Relations at Mitsui Fudosan. I will explain our results for the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2025. As usual, I will use the financial results and business highlights materials dated November 8, which are available on our website.

Let's get started. As always, I will begin with an overview of the second quarter results. Please turn to the financial highlights on Page 3 of the presentation materials. As shown in the box at the top of the page, in first half, Mitsui Fudosan reported year-on-year declines in operating revenue, operating income and ordinary income. However, in absolute terms, each was at a high level, which is second only to the record high 6-month results reported in the previous fiscal year. With regard to the new profit metrics set out in our group long-term vision & Innovation 2030, optically, business income also fell year-on-year, owing to a high base for comparison as a result of property sales and others. However, if we look at the progress rates versus the full year forecast, we made solid progress in first half with our core segments of leasing, management and facility operations all over 50%. As such, overall, we believe we are making steady progress toward achieving our new record high full year earnings forecast.

We note that first half profits attributable to owners of parent were down year-on-year, reflecting the absence of gains on sales of investment securities posted in first half fiscal 2023, the vast majority of which were reported as extraordinary profits. Despite this, in absolute terms, first half net income achieved the third highest level on record. The interim dividend, in line with our initial forecast has been set at JPY 15 per share.

Please turn to Page 5 of the presentation materials. I will now cover the individual segments. Business income in first half fiscal 2024 fell year-on-year for leasing and property sales, but rose year-on-year for management and was significantly higher for facility operations. We highlight the main factors for year-on-year changes in operating revenues and profits for each segment in the box on the upper part of the page, but I will go into more detail later. I will first explain the progress rates versus the full year forecast for business income for each segment. As shown in the column on the right side of the table, as of first half, the Leasing segment is making steady progress at over 50%. Management and facility operations are higher still at 57% and 65%, respectively, both showing strong progress. For the Property Sales segment, conditions are different for the subsegments of property sales to domestic individuals and property sales to investors and overseas individuals.

The progress rate for property sales to domestic individuals relative to the high full year profit forecast of JPY 96 billion currently stands at 47%, as you can see. In contrast, relative to the full year forecast of JPY 74 billion for property sales to investors and overseas individuals, which includes gains and losses on tangible assets and equity method investments, the progress rate stands at 25%. Given that property sales slated for this fiscal year are projected to skew to second half, we expect to make steady progress into the end of the fiscal year. I will now discuss the results in more detail.

Please turn to Page 63 of the presentation. I will start with the consolidated profit and loss statement. Operating revenue for first half fiscal 2024 was JPY 1,162.4 billion, down JPY 2.8 billion or 0.2% year-on-year. Business income, which is the combination of operating income and gains and losses on the disposal of tangible assets and equity method investments was JPY 173.1 billion, down JPY 11.7 billion or 6.4% year-on-year. Ordinary income was JPY 137.3 billion, down JPY 17 billion or 11.1% year-on-year. Profit attributable to owners of parent was JPY 88.3 billion, down JPY 40.9 billion or 31.7% year-on-year.

On the right, we show the progress rate relative to our full year forecast. Please see the box titled Progress Comparison with Full Year Forecast. Operating revenue was 44.7%, business income was 46.8% and ordinary income was 52.8%, showing steady progress at the halfway point of the year. Profit attributable to owners of parent was 37.6%, but this is mainly because much of the profits on the sale of properties in property sales to investors and extraordinary profits from gains on the sale of tangible assets and others are projected to be reported in second half. As such, we believe the pace of progress toward full year forecast is in line with our expectations.

Next, before commenting on the segment details, please return to the table on the left. I will touch upon the major items below the line. First, under nonoperating income and expenses, the net interest burden increased JPY 5 billion year-on-year. Major factors for the increase include the rise in interest-bearing debt outstanding as a result of progress in investments in Japan and overseas and changes in foreign exchange rates. Relative to the JPY 79 billion full year target for net interest burden, the progress rate is 49%, in line with our initial forecast. In contrast, equity and net income or loss of affiliated companies fell JPY 1.5 billion. This primarily reflects a high year-on-year base for comparison on the back of strong profits in overseas property sales at Asian equity method affiliates in the previous fiscal year.

Factoring in dividends received and net other nonoperating income and expenses, overall nonoperating income and expenses was a negative JPY 6.8 billion year-on-year. Next, I will discuss extraordinary gains and losses. As shown in the table titled Extraordinary Gains and Losses on the upper right, Mitsui Fudosan posted JPY 13.4 billion in extraordinary profits in first half fiscal 2024 from gains on sales of investment securities. Based on the new policy on investment securities outlined in & Innovation 2030, we continue to make disposals of a portion of the equities we hold. As the vast majority of gains on sales of investment securities in the previous fiscal year were reported in first quarter, optically, first half extraordinary profits appear to have fallen year-on-year. However, this decline is purely a function of timing.

As indicated in our full year forecast, we plan to generate extraordinary gains of JPY 85 billion, including gains on the sale of tangible assets. Under extraordinary losses, Mitsui Fudosan posted JPY 2.8 billion in impairment losses. This is primarily related to a change in business policy for some domestic facilities. As a result of the policy change, we reviewed the market value of the properties, reporting the gap between market and book value as impairment losses.

I will now cover the segment results in more detail. I will start with the Leasing segment. Please turn to Page 65 of the presentation materials. As shown at the top of the page, first half operating revenue was JPY 419.7 billion and business income was JPY 85.6 billion. This was a year-on-year top line increase of JPY 20.7 billion and a profit decrease of JPY 3.2 billion. In the comments section on the left, we describe recent conditions for the Leasing segment.

In second quarter, while rent revenue from existing offices and GMV from existing retail facilities grew as a result of an increase in property taxes on overseas properties and the impact of sales of domestic and overseas properties in the previous fiscal year, the overall segment reported higher revenues but lower profits year-on-year. We show the office vacancy rate in the box in the middle of the page. Mitsui Fudosan's nonconsolidated metropolitan area office vacancy rate as of the end of September was 2.4%, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the 2.5% as of the end of June.

With regard to our forecast for the fiscal year-end vacancy rate, we had indicated we expected it to be around the 2% level in our initial forecast. However, we now expect a further improvement and project the year-end vacancy rate to be around the mid-1% level.

Next is the Property Sales segment. Please turn to Page 66. As shown at the top of the page, overall first half segment operating revenue was JPY 267.5 billion and business income was JPY 63 billion. On a year-on-year basis, this represents declines of JPY 51.9 billion and JPY 17 billion, respectively. Looking at the individual subsegments, I will start with property sales to domestic individuals. Please look at the second row from the top. Operating revenue was JPY 203.9 billion, and operating income was JPY 44.8 billion. This represents year-on-year increases of JPY 37.6 billion and JPY 8.5 billion, respectively. As stated in the comments section on the left, this mainly reflects the year-on-year increase in the number of reported units and profit margin on the back of the completion and handovers of Park Tower Kachidoki, a large-scale redevelopment project in the Tokyo Bay Area. Other key reported properties are listed in the box below the comment section on the left for your reference.

The number of reported units are shown in the middle of the table. The combined units for condominiums and detached housing were 2,197, up 621 units year-on-year. The average unit price for condominiums and detached housing was over JPY 90 million, a high level similar to the JPY 100 million plus level of the previous fiscal year. This is a reflection of the mix of reported properties. Similar to the same period last fiscal year, you can appreciate the high proportion of high-end properties reported in first half. Near-term selling conditions remain strong.

Completed inventory for first half, as shown in the table on the lower part of the page, was a mere 11 units for condominiums and only 16 units for detached housing for a total of 27. The combined total is at historically low levels. The contract rate relative to the full year target for new domestic condominiums of 3,650 has risen to 97% as of the end of September. Last fiscal year, at this time, the contract rate was 92% and 89%, 2 years ago. This is an indication of just how strong the performance is this fiscal year.

Next, turning to property sales to investors and overseas individuals, which includes gains and losses on tangible assets and equity method investments. Please return to the top of the page. Operating revenue was JPY 63.6 billion, down JPY 89.5 billion year-on-year. Business income was a combination of JPY 16.2 billion in operating income and JPY 1.9 billion in gains on equity method investments for a total of JPY 18.1 billion. Operating income fell JPY 23.8 billion and equity method investment gains fell JPY 1.7 billion year-on-year for a combined year-on-year decline of JPY 25.5 billion.

In the same period of the previous fiscal year, we completed sales of lab and office and large-scale rental residential properties, mainly overseas. In the first half of the current fiscal year, we recorded sales of MFIP TAMA, which is a data center as well as domestic rental residential properties. We reiterate that property handovers for the property sales to investors business is skewed to the second half of this fiscal year. While the first half progress rate relative to the full year forecast is 25%, if we take into account signed sales agreements in properties where we are close to agreement, the progress is above 70%. We expect to have agreements in place for all planned transactions by the end of the calendar year.

The domestic real estate investment market continues to demonstrate a strong appetite for properties that generate stable cash flows such as offices, logistics facilities and rental residential properties. Going forward, we will continue to monitor the activities of buyers and sellers and financial real estate market trends while remaining firmly focused on completing contracts and handovers.

Next, the Management segment. Please turn to Page 67. This segment consists of the property management business, which focuses on managing properties under contract and the car park leasing business, Repark, and the brokerage and asset management business, which includes the corporate and retail brokerage businesses and the asset management business for our sponsored REITs and others. Please look at the top row of the table. The overall Management segment reported operating revenue of JPY 235.1 billion and business income of JPY 34.2 billion. This represents year-on-year increases of JPY 13.8 billion and JPY 4.3 billion, respectively.

Looking at the conditions for the individual businesses, I will start with property management. Please look at the table at the top of the page. Subsegment operating revenue was JPY 177.6 billion and business income was JPY 19.3 billion. This represents a year-on-year increase of JPY 8.6 billion in revenue and a slight year-on-year decline in business income. The key factors were a year-on-year improvement in occupancy rates for the Repark car park leasing business, but an increase in expenses related to system upgrades.

Next is the Brokerage and Asset Management subsegment. Operating revenue was JPY 57.5 billion and business income JPY 14.9 billion for year-on-year increases of JPY 5.2 billion and JPY 4.3 billion, respectively. The key factors were increases in the number of transactions and unit prices in the retail brokerage business.

Next is the Facility Operations segment. Please turn to Page 68. Overall, Facility Operations reported first half operating revenues of JPY 110 billion and business income of JPY 19.4 billion. This represents year-on-year increases of JPY 15.8 billion and JPY 6.8 billion, respectively. The key factors, as outlined in the comments section on the left, were further increases in ADRs in the Hotel and Resorts business and the increase in operating days and spectator numbers at Tokyo Dome. Looking at the individual subsegments, the Hotel and Resorts business posted operating revenue of JPY 78 billion, up JPY 12.2 billion year-on-year.

The Sports and Entertainment business consisting primarily of Tokyo Dome City reported operating revenue of JPY 32 billion, up JPY 3.6 billion year-on-year. As you can see, both subsegments reported year-on-year top line growth.

Next is the Other segment. Please turn to Page 69. This segment mainly consists of the new construction under consignment business of Mitsui Home and interior construction and renovation business for offices and hotels of Mitsui Designtec. Overall, the Other segment reported first half operating revenues of JPY 129.9 billion and business income was JPY 1.3 billion. This represents a year-on-year decline of JPY 1.3 billion in revenue, but a JPY 1.3 billion improvement in business income.

Revenues declined as a result of lower sales for build-to-order homes at Mitsui Home, which impacted the new construction under consignment business and accounts for the majority of the other segment. However, profits rose on an improvement in gross margin and large-scale orders at Mitsui Designtec for offices, hotels and others.

Next, for reference, we show figures for the overseas business. Please turn to Page 70. Please note, there is a 3-month lag in reflecting overseas profits. The figures included in first half reflect the results of the overseas business for the period of January to June 2024. Overall combined overseas business profit for first half fiscal 2024 was JPY 20.6 billion, down JPY 40 billion year-on-year. Within this, the Leasing segment reported an increase in revenues and profits from progress on properties and ForEx impact, which was offset by an increase in property taxes and a high base for comparison as a result of the impact of property sales in the first half of the previous fiscal year.

Operating revenues grew JPY 14.1 billion, but profit fell JPY 1.3 billion year-on-year. In the Property Sales segment, a high base for comparison on the back of the sale of large-scale properties in the U.S. in the first half of the previous fiscal year and the impact of selling a U.S. rental residential property in second quarter this fiscal year led to a JPY 100.2 billion drop in revenue and a JPY 38.8 billion decline in profit. The combination of the Management and Other segment reported a JPY 2.7 billion increase in revenue and a JPY 0.1 billion improvement in profits, driven by improved RevPAR at the Halekulani Hotel and other factors.

We note that this time within the overseas business income, profits for the Property Sales segment dropped to JPY 0.9 billion in second quarter versus JPY 3.3 billion in first quarter, a decline of around JPY 2 billion. This is related to the sale of a U.S. rental residential property in the property sales to investors business for which we factored in a loss. From the perspective of improving the quality of our portfolio in the U.S., we made the decision to sell properties we identified as having limited upside in terms of future cash flow at an early stage to recycle capital.

Next, I will talk about the balance sheet. Please turn to Page 71. At the bottom of the page on the left, total assets as of the end of second quarter were JPY 9,963.3 billion, up JPY 473.8 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year. Of the JPY 473.8 billion increase in outstanding assets, roughly 70% or JPY 336.4 billion is the result of the impact of foreign exchange rate changes. I will now discuss the major components of change such as investment and cost recovery.

Please turn to Page 72. As shown in the table on the upper left, the total outstanding balance of real property for sale was JPY 2,606.3 billion, up JPY 231 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year. New investments were JPY 298.2 billion, cost recovery was JPY 181.7 billion and other, which includes elements such as ForEx impact was JPY 114.5 billion. As you can see in the breakdown by company, Mitsui Fudosan reported a net increase in investment of JPY 41.1 billion. Mitsui Fudosan Residential, a net increase in investment of JPY 9.9 billion, while the overseas subsidiaries reported net increases mainly as a result of ForEx impact with Mitsui Fudosan America posting a net increase of JPY 74.1 billion and Mitsui Fudosan U.K., a net increase of JPY 34.3 billion.

Next, looking at the lower left, the outstanding balance of tangible and intangible assets was JPY 4,632.2 billion, up JPY 226.7 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year. The key contributing factors for both investments and cost recovery are shown in the comment section on the lower right. New investments, including construction investments for senior residents, Park Wellstate Nishiazabu and the Yaesu 2-Chome Central District Project were JPY 167.5 billion, but depreciation was JPY 67.9 billion. Factoring in JPY 127 billion for other, the vast majority of which was ForEx impact, there was a net increase of JPY 226.7 billion versus the end of the previous fiscal year.

On the liability side, please see the table on the upper right. The outstanding balance of interest-bearing debt as of second quarter was JPY 4,901.4 billion, up JPY 471 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year. Of this increase, just under 20% or JPY 71.9 billion was the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates. Going back to Page 71. As a result of the above, the D/E ratio as of the end of second quarter was 1.56x and the equity ratio was 31.5%.

Finally, I would like to touch upon the outlook for the full year forecast for this fiscal year. Please turn back to Page 3. Currently, we are tracking in line with our initial consolidated forecast on an overall basis. We make no changes to our forecast for sales, business income, operating income, ordinary income and net income attributable to owners of the parent. That said, earlier in discussing the Property Sales segment business income within the overseas business, I noted that we had sold a U.S. rental residential property. This fiscal year, we have sold some other U.S. rental residential properties where for property-specific regions, prospects for future upside to cash flow and an improvement in investment efficiency are limited. In addition, taking into account selling conditions for residential properties in China, we expect to incur a total of around JPY 15 billion in losses on sales of property for the overseas business on a full year basis.

However, given the increased certainty of achieving our target for property sales to domestic individuals based on the strong contract progress rate and market environment and the outlook for a significant overshoot in domestic property sales to investors, we are on track for achieving our initial forecast for property sales as a whole. As such, we have kept our earnings forecast unchanged. With regard to the earnings forecast for segments other than property sales, as stated at the outset, the progress rate for leasing is over 50%, and we are tracking steadily in line with our full year forecast.

Progress rates for the Management and Facility Operations segments as of first half were 57% and 65%, respectively, well ahead of our initial assumptions. We believe that continued strength near term as we head into the end of the year suggests we could overshoot our initial forecast on a full year basis. In addition, as we implement balance sheet control measures through the acceleration of asset recycling into the end of the fiscal year, we expect interest-bearing debt, which was at around JPY 4.9 trillion at the end of first half to settle at around JPY 4.4 trillion at the end of the fiscal year as initially expected, subject to ForEx rates.

Overall, we are strongly confident in our ability to achieve our full year forecast. The group as a whole will continue to monitor domestic and overseas financial and real estate market trends while firmly focusing on achieving the business income and net profit targets for this fiscal year and the achievement of the KPIs set out in & Innovation 2030. This completes my presentation.