Sompo Holdings Inc

TSE:8630

Earnings Call Analysis

Solid Q3 Profits and Strategic Goals

In the third quarter, with sturdy investment income and favorable foreign exchange impact, the adjusted profit reached JPY 128.7 billion. This is substantial progress toward the JPY 280 billion yearly target. Rising interest rates have led to better reinvestment yields, and these effects will be more precisely forecasted next May. Domestically, despite a minor dip in auto insurance sales in October, the company is not expecting a significant numerical impact this fiscal year, though price hikes and future impacts are not yet determined. Efforts are focused on profit growth and potential dividend enhancement. The company remains committed to reducing strategically held shares to below 20% of adjusted net assets by 2030, aligning with IFRS standards. Despite recent issues, such as those involving Bigmotors, the emphasis is on preventive measures, root cause analysis, and long-term industry-wide changes to rebuild trust. Internationally, a portfolio management strategy aims to secure reasonable mid- to long-term growth and enhance profits.

Addressing Recent Challenges and Future Preventive Measures

Mikio Okumura, the Group COO of Sompo Holdings, opened the discussion with an apology for the recent issues concerning Bigmotor's operational challenges and price fixing, which have caused concern among stakeholders. The company is awaiting a final report from an external investigation committee, and in anticipation of this, they have postponed their IR meeting to offer a clearer explanation of future preventative measures once the report is received. Acknowledging a deficiency in protecting policyholders and communication with subsidiaries, Okumura outlined their commitment to strengthening the overall system and changing the corporate culture, in pursuit of mid-term growth.

Strategy for the Next Mid-Term Management Plan

As Sompo Holdings approaches the end of its current mid-term plan, Okumura highlighted record-high adjusted consolidated profits. However, a sense of urgency permeates his outlook given the domestic P&C insurance market fatigue, demographic changes, and digital transformation challenges. The next mid-term plan revolves around three main pillars: revamping the domestic P&C business, solidifying Sompo International's growth, and advancing initiatives to improve societal well-being.

Growth Initiatives and Capital Allocation

Okumura indicated that new business models would be developed to regain customer trust after recent issues. He emphasized the importance of international expansion and strengthening integration between Sompo Japan and Sompo International. The company also aims to create a healthy and sustainable society, especially focusing on nursing care services as part of their well-being initiative. Additionally, details about KPIs such as ROE, EPS growth rate, capital policy, and shareholder returns will be announced in the following spring, signaling a renewed focus on corporate governance.

Financial Performance and Expectations

Masahiro Hamada, Group CFO, reported increased profits across all business segments in the first half of the fiscal year, attributing the rise to higher interest rates, the end of temporary COVID-19 factors, and improved rates and underwriting. The adjusted consolidated profit rose by JPY 82.3 billion to JPY 133.2 billion. Despite some adjustments, the full-year forecast for adjusted consolidated profit remains at JPY 280 billion, supported by overseas insurance business performance and the expectation of continued profit accumulation in the second half of the year.

Revising Projections Due to Changing Conditions

Specific challenges such as hail impacts, rising accident rates, and inflation are influencing the forecast of Sompo Japan's automobile insurance sector. Traffic volume, which had increased by 4% year-on-year, is projected to stabilize in the second half, with the full-year forecast for the accident rate adjusted from a decrease of 0.3% to an increase of 2.5%. The full-year forecast of unit repair prices is consistent with the initial forecast, despite inflationary pressures, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Mikio Okumura, executive]

This is Okumura, Group COO of Sompo Holdings. Thank you very much for coming today. First of all, I do need to talk about what we're finding with the Bigmotor's issue as well as price fixing or content issue. I do want to apologize for causing anxiety for many people in concern. I am very sorry for this. Now today, we are before receiving the final report from the external investigation committee. And so today, I will not be able to speak too much on the specifics, but still in today's call, I do want to talk about, to the extent I can, about what we mean to do in this regard. And usually, right after we announced our financial result, we conduct our IR meeting. However, we do want to wait to receive the final report because that will enable us to have a more clearer explanation about what we mean to do in terms of prevention for reoccurrence as well as new measures. And so we're going to be rescheduling the IR meeting.

So with that, please turn to Page 4. We take all these Bigmotor's incidents. For example, restarting the referral process, we do believe we lacked the ability to protect our policyholders. We also do believe that there must have been issues of not being able to communicate with our subsidiaries. We do believe there are a lot of outstanding issues. And so we do want to make sure we'd be able to implement preventive measures as we try to find what was the root cause behind this. But then my personal feeling, I do not believe it is correct to have the holdings company decide on every one of the us that the operating companies are supposed to do. I do believe it is better that the operating companies will be able to make their decisions on their own and the holdings need to make sure we create such environment. And so at Sompo Japan, we know we are going to put priority in corresponding the customer, and we're talking together with Sompo Japan so that we'll be able to work on preventive measures.

Now in terms of preventive measures, there are things that we are already doing, for example, strengthening the claims payment assessment or improving the quality of operation. I also do believe there is a lot of things that still need to be done on sharing the information. It is about the system as a whole. It is also about changing our corporate culture. And these are some of the things that I do want to revisit once again. Once we receive the final report from the committee, we should be able to know deeper about the facts that led to this case and its root cause. And with that, we would like to implement the preventive measures.

But I would like to take this opportunity to enable us to really revisit how we have been operating. We do also want to look into the organization structure or business model. If there's anything that we need to improve, we do want to do that. And of course, there will be some advanced cost investment required. But we do want to cope with the changing external environment. We do want to make sure that we'd be able to take this as an opportunity to create our mid-term growth.

And so with that in mind, please turn to Page 5 now. So within the next MTMP, there are some concepts that I would like to share with you today. This year marks the final year of our current mid-term plan and the adjusted consolidated profit will be able to mark the highest, the record highest. On the other hand, when we look at the environment surrounding the domestic P&C insurance as well as some of the long-term practice -- practice, I do find some system fatigue. There's also some changes in the environment. There's the change in this population. There's also a move in DX and I do feel a strong sense of crisis. We should not just continue the status quo.

I would like to make sure that I'd be able to communicate with all the business operators as well as all the members so that we'd be able to address these challenges with speed. And in these next -- in this next mid-term, I do believe there are 3 main pillars. One is the domestic P&C business. And again, this is exactly the business that we have to overcome, some of the issues behind the cartel issues or business motors -- Bigmotors and is an area where we do have to make sure that we look at what the issues we face so that we'd be able to create a new business model as we be able to regain the trust from the customers. But of course, this is very much based on the fact that we'd be able to, again, gain the trust from our stakeholders. It is not about pointing finger to the one who needs to be responsible. It is something that needs to be tackled within the entire group.

Next, our overseas operation. Sompo International's growth needs to be solidified, including expanding our footprint in each geography. We have been enjoying this conglomerate premium. These initiatives needs to be upgraded. So that in the mid-, long-term, Sompo Japan and Sompo International would be able to have even stronger integrated operation. We want to look at the stronger balance sheet so that we'd be able to enhance profitability as well as in-house resilience.

We also read about well-being initiative. So in the mid-, long-term, we want to make sure we'd be able to create a society who'll be able to feel positive the older they get. In other words, we want to create a world where everyone will be able to enjoy being healthy and being self truthful throughout their life. And that's the concept behind creating this wellbeing platform. And in this wellbeing platform, we really want to focus, especially people in 50s and 70s. We want to address their anxiety in regards to, for example, health, retirement funds as well as long-term care.

So to these 3 concerns, there are some services that we already offer. For example, some of the initiatives that we're doing basically with our life insurance like Insurhealth. We need to accelerate this service so that everyone would be able to feel this healthy life. And in the nursing care business, we have also launched egaku. This project should enable us to create sustainability of long-term care and to enhance profitability of this service. In other words, we want to create a society where people, when they need, will be able to enjoy this nursing care service.

I think by doing this, we should be able to alleviate the anxiety behind this nursing care. Tying each business with data and service, tying customers with local community and each business partner. By doing that, we should be able to create new added value in our products and services. We want to create a society where people will be able to live without feeling anxious. We should be able to pursue uniqueness of Sompo.

KPIs such as ROE and EPS growth rate, capital policy and shareholders' return will be officially announced next spring. Maintaining corporate governance, which gives assurance to all the stakeholders. We are going to evolve it and build it into a better form. We will implement various measures one after another with resilience and connection as keywords. By doing so, we would like to provide sustainable and stable profit growth and the benefits to our shareholders. I am committed to lead the way.

Now Mr. Hamada, our CFO, walks you through most recent results.

[Masahiro Hamada, executive]

I'm Hamada, Group CFO. Let me explain about the results on Page 6 and 7. Just briefly, as you can see on the left-hand side of Page 6, in the first half, all the businesses saw increase in profit with adjusted consolidated profit up JPY 82.3 billion to JPY 133.2 billion. There are 3 major factors as you can see here. First, driven by rising interest rate. In particular, investment income of overseas insurance business was up JPY 25 billion, partly owing to conglomerate premium or [indiscernible] Sompo effect. Secondly, temporarily factor due to COVID-19 last year is now gone. And thirdly, improved rates and underwriting contributed to the enhancement of Fire and other business base profit, up JPY 22 billion.

On the right-hand side of Page 6, for the year forecast. Based on the half year results, there are some adjustments on the businesses. But full year forecast for adjusted consolidated profit remained -- remains at JPY 280 billion. In the second half, in addition to accumulation of investment income, underwriting profit driven by rate increase and increased earned premium will accumulate profit.

As to overseas insurance business, we already have third quarter preliminary report. July, September period saw profit of JPY 46.9 billion without any unexpected event, it is almost certain that we will achieve full year forecast.

On Page 7, I'd like to touch upon 2 topics. As to automobile insurance of Sompo Japan, hail impact and increased accident rate, in particular, and inflation are pushing up unit repair cost, which is factored in our forecast. As to accident rate, in the first half of the year, traffic volume increased more than expected, up 4% year-on-year. Given certain traffic recovery seen last year, in the second half of this year, traffic volume is expected to peak out. But full year forecast of accidental rate was changed from minus 0.3% to plus 2.5%. Full year forecast of unit repair price remains the same as initial forecast, namely up 5% year-on-year. There's some impact from inflation and no particular surprise here.

Now overseas insurance business, as I mentioned earlier, with the strong investment income and FX giving positive impact, adjusted profit in third quarter, preliminary report reached JPY 128.7 billion or 77% of JPY 168 billion of revised adjusted profit. Overseas business is covering some shortcomings of domestic P&C. All in all, we are making good progress to achieve JPY 280 billion of adjusted consolidated profit. Unfortunately, JPY 300 billion will be difficult, but the good progress for JPY 280 billion.

With overseas business adopting IFRS 17, changes in unrealized gains on securities are now recognized in consolidated net income. From this presentation, we are using adjusted profit instead of net income as a starting point to represent business condition in a more simple way. That's what you will see from the next page.

Lastly, shareholders' return, given current [ ESR ] and capitalization, we decided not to make any additional return as of the end of first half. As to year-end dividend, based on return policy, results, in particular, ROE and investment appetite in the next mid-term plan, we are going to make firm decision. That's all I have.

[Operator]

Thank you very much, Mr. Hamada. We will now start our Q&A session. First of all, we'd like to ask Mr. Muraki from SMBC Securities.

[Masao Muraki, analyst]

Yes, this is Muraki from SMBC Nikko Securities. I have 2 questions. First is about your auto insurance loss ratio, which I do believe is indicated on two pages, Page 7 and Page 23, you have some data available. So you were saying that post COVID, people would not be driving cars. But then we find that traffic is really coming up, and we do believe there has been a lot of traffic jams in November, which means it seems like the current situation is quite different from your initial assumption. I do understand you have been able to revise up your figures. But then if you compare first and second half, it seems like the second half, the claims, excluding natural disasters is expected to go down. But then do you still feel the risk that you may have to raise up the forecast of loss ratio again? So that's my first question.

[Masahiro Hamada, executive]

This is Hamada. I would like to answer your first question. So it is true. As you pointed out, when you look at the accident rate, it's actually much higher than we initially have been expecting. When we make a close look, it seems like this accident rate is very much in correspondence to the traffic in highways. Now in the first half, we had been expecting 0.7% or so increase from the previous year. But we do find the figure. The actual figure is much higher than that. But then even when we say that, we do believe that the first half traffic still is under pre-COVID, in other words, FY '19. But then for the second half, we're looking at this in a very conservative figure. So it's not really about FY '19. We'd be looking at some of the more recent highest traffic month. We selected such a month, and we expected that the traffic level would come back to such a level. But of course, even in the previous year, we have been seeing the traffic increase, and that's what exactly behind the figures that we see today.

With that said, of course, in regards to traffic, it's always difficult to foresee what would happen, and it's also true. We have been saying that the society is going to change permanently after COVID. There's not really going to be much traffic. That's what we had been saying some years ago, but we know it proved to be wrong. When we look at the number of traffic, with that said, I do not believe that the amount of traffic can explain what we saw in the first half.

And we're thinking that maybe it's because some of the people, who have not really been driving, had decided to come back again for leisure purpose now. In other words, we're finding a lot of people who's driving even though they're not really used to driving anymore. But of course, that's not what we assume in the second half. So it's just like zero-sum, very small percentage points of difference, but we do believe there still could be some risk of increasing the rate in the end in terms of our forecast. But then even though there might be some upside risk, we still are looking at this figure in a very conservative manner.

[Masao Muraki, analyst]

My second question, I'd like to ask to your COO because we have the President here. I'd like to ask about your direction for the next MTP. So just like you said, the domestic profitability, even before we started to hear about Bigmotors, it has been going down. And so in the mid-term plan, you were saying your adjusted profit will be JPY 150 billion, but now this year, you're saying it's going to be JPY 58 billion. But then for overseas, you have been making upward revision. But then when we look at the underwriting profit, initially, you've been saying it's going to be $1.3 billion, but now it's revised downward to somewhere around $1 billion.

So again, there's going to be drastic reform to be implemented in Japan. But then when it comes to domestic and overseas P&C, to stabilize the underwriting profit here, I do not believe it's an easy story. So I want to ask what is the priority in driving your next mid-term plan? I asked this especially because I would suppose at the first part of the mid-term, you probably are not really going to focus on enhancing profitability.

You're probably going to be allocating more resource in enhancing our governance or perhaps the corporate culture. And it's probably going to be towards the latter half where you will be focusing more on enhancing the priority. So is that the way you're going to prioritize? So again, it's really about how are you going to prioritize driving the elements behind the mid-term? And when are you really going to work on enhancing profitability?

[Mikio Okumura, executive]

Yes, Muraki-san. Thank you for your question. So again, the direction for our next mid-term plan. Basically, we'd be looking at both Japan and outside Japan. We'd be looking at the capital cost. We'd be looking at interest rate or in other words, fixed income asset, we'd be looking at the inflation. So we'd be looking at all of these external factors. And at the same time, what I always talk with the members outside Japan, if we'd be able to maintain a combined ratio somewhere around 90% to 95%, that enables us to really fairly exceed the capital cost. And if it's about Japan, looking at the interest rate, putting 95% as the combined ratio target, it's becoming a bit more difficult to do that, especially because we have this cartel issue and Bigmotors issues as well.

But even from before, we have been talking about the profitability of our fire insurance. We've been talking about the double structure of our business. We'll be talking about depopulation, natural disaster. We talked about expense. And so there were a lot of changes that we had to cope from this external element, and we always have been lagging behind. So from that perspective, yes, it is true. It might require time. We may have to incur some advanced investment. But then when it comes to outside Japan, especially in terms of a dollar basis, it seems like our underwriting profit seems to have gone down.

But then it's partly because of the agriculture -- agro insurance, but then also for social inflation. And all of these is really coming back to pre-COVID. And you've just heard from Hamada-san that the traffic is really coming back pre-COVID level. But then the social inflation is also really coming back outside Japan. And so we do have to be prepared for that.

In other words, how we'd be able to keep on putting some reserves so that we'd be able to keep ourselves safe is something that we have to think about. But even as we do that, we do want to make sure that we'd be able to achieve the target that we set on the local currency basis. And that's how we try to whip up our numbers. And so again, it's not that we're going to be making a dramatic growth in the final third year, but we want to make sure we implement the necessary initiatives. And if it's overseas, we do want to make sure that we'd be able to set a high target even from the beginning, in other words, from year '24. But it's not just about placing some wish. For example, if it's a fixed income asset, we do have to think about duration. We also have to look at better yield. We have to make sure that we'd be able to increase this managed asset. And so we don't want to press ourselves too much, but still, we do believe we should be able to see a very good result in the fixed income asset. And so that's how we'd be able to enhance our portfolio. That's our thought.

[Operator]

Next question is from Ms. Tsujino-san, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley.

[Natsumu Tsujino, analyst]

I have a question about domestic or the insurance business. On a full year basis, without natural disasters, this ratio, compared to original forecast, was up only by 2 percentage points. But with other companies, this ratio is up more than yours. So when it comes to comparison with the peers, I think that the information at this moment is not sufficient. But you said that you are based on the most -- the traffic -- the big traffic in the past. But I do not think that the view at the beginning of the year, this year is very different from that last year's. So my question is this forecast you think is really conservative? And also, when you look at the results of the second quarter and also October, what is your current thought about this forecast?

[Yasunori Kuroda, executive]

Tsujino-san, thank you. Here is Kuroda from IR section. You're right. In the first half, the earned and incurred loss ratio for auto insurance is 68.6%. So up 6.7 points in which 4% is from accident rate and repair unit cost increase that is the result of analysis. And as Mr. Hamada said, in the first half of last year, there was a revenge drive, if you like, after the COVID. But in the second half, the traffic was rather stabilized. So even with large traffic volume in the past, assumed this ratio forecast is still well contained the original full year forecast for EI loss ratio was 62.1%, but now it's 66.3%, up 4.2 percentage point in which 2% is from natural disaster and another 2% from the accident rate. So it is slightly conservative, but basically, it is flattish.

[Natsumu Tsujino, analyst]

Understood. Next question. About overseas business, I have not seen the section of overseas insurance yet. But the investment income has risen significantly. And the asset side duration is about 3 years. So given that, would you say that the yield next year, is going to be higher than this year? And of course, that there is a factor of the foreign exchange. But I would just say that the investment income will continue to rise next year as well.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you, Tsujino-san. You're right. This year, as you can see, the NII has increased significantly, and there are 2 drivers there. First, interest rate has risen and reinvestment yield went up. And also in October last year, there was a capital injection of about JPY 200 billion into SI. And the expected that yield is high single digit, including high-yield investment. And of course, some effects will emerge next year from these investments. And as you said, asset-side duration is 3 years. So if the interest rate remains at the current level, for another 2 years or so, we will enjoy return from reinvestment. Specific figures will be in forecast to be presented in May next year. It is probable that the increase in order of JPY 10 billion will occur.

[Operator]

Next, can we have the question from Watanabe-san from Daiwa Securities.

[Kazuki Watanabe, analyst]

Yes. This is Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. I also have 2 questions. So first question is about your auto insurance. When I look at the sales performance of the month of October, I feel like you're underperforming compared to your peers. And I guess perhaps the Bigmotors issue is impacting your performance? And also, you talked about loss ratio and also in the interim result, you'll be talking about combined ratio 100% plus. And with all that in mind, do you think you'll be able to do some price hike?

My second question is about your shareholder return because I do understand that Mr. Hamada was talking about your capital allocation policy. Now do you think FSA -- what the FSA would say, what Bigmotors would go? What would happen to the buybacks? Would that impact your shareholder return policy?

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you for your question. So first of all, I'd like to respond to your question about the month of October. Like you said, when we look at the sales performance, we do find the auto insurance found minus 1.1%. And it is true compared to the peers, we do look a bit inferior. Now we do believe we have been seeing some signs from the month of September, and it was really in the month of October when we started to find that the competitor's dealer channel finding less referral in terms of having new contracts. And to be honest with you, when we look at nationwide, it's -- we do hear a lot of very tough comments from our customers as well as from our employees. But it's really our dealers who will be able to hold the grip of our customers, and that's exactly what's enabling us to hold on. But then when it comes to competitors' channel, when it comes to referral of new contracts, it is true that we're starting to find some impacts.

With that said, it is quite difficult to find -- to really quantify the impact because when it comes to auto industry, it really depends on which OEM would be selling how much new models, and that really creates change in our sales performance. So we can't really just pick out a Bigmotors issue in quantifying the impact per se. But it is true, we have been seeing some signs of the impact. So for this fiscal year, with that said, we do not believe there's going to be any numerical impact. But then when it comes to next year, it's probably going to impact us in some way, including the timing of when we'd be able to go for a price hike.

Now at this moment, honest -- to be honest with you, when it comes to like -- we decided to postpone changing the rate at '24 January. But then when we'd be able to do that next time, we haven't really decided that yet. We want to look at how the society goes, how the world goes to really identify when would be the right timing we'd be able to go for a price hike. And just roughly speaking, it really depends on how much percentage we'd be able to raise. If we're going to increase the rate by 1%, that is going to contribute to the profit by JPY 2 billion or JPY 3 billion. And so how long would we have to wait before we'd be able to enjoy that benefit is the question. Basically, looking at the performance of our auto insurance, we do want to go for a price hike as soon as possible, but that's something that we'd have to wait. We have to assess the environment that we live in before we make that decision. So that's my response.

Also your question about shareholder return policy. As you know, when it comes to ESR, it's really at the midpoint. If you're asking about when we'd be able to do some buyback at the interim point. And if we look at our peers, you can tell that we usually make decisions on buyback on an ad hoc basis, and it's not really going to be at this point of time. And it doesn't mean that we'd be impacted by how the regulators would decide.

With that said, it is quite difficult for us to really say specifically on this topic today. But of course, we're trying to think of growth strategy in the future as well as shareholder return, excluding all these factors that lie right in front of us. And of course, even for next fiscal year, we want to make sure that we'd be able to focus on profit growth and think of enhancing our dividend. We do want to make sure we'd be able to enhance our shareholder return policy.

[Operator]

Next question is from Sato-san with JPMorgan.

[Koki Sato, analyst]

It's Sato of JPMorgan. I have 2 questions. Well, my first question kind of overlaps with Watanabe-san's question. But the full year forecast of auto insurance net premium written has been revised down. Does this mean that the new business acquisition from the other peers has been factored in? And on Page 18, you are showing non fleet renewal rate. And the comment says that it is within the range of the past. Could you please talk about the renewal situation? I would say that the, say, 2 to 3 months before the maturity, you will receive notice from the company for the renewal and with the fraudulent cases being reported in mass media, maybe there will be some time lag to see the impact. Could you please elaborate more on the impact for renewals?

[Unknown Executive]

Sato-san, thank you for the question. As net premium written for automobile insurance, as you pointed out correctly, we have revised it down from the original forecast. And as you said, the new business acquisition is a bit struggling and that is factored in that revision. And as to the renewal rate, it is rather difficult to grasp the situation on a timely basis. But at least according to data, by to the end of September compared to the renewal rate, over the past several years. We are not seeing any big difference. And as Sato-san said, there might be some time lag to see the impact. So we are going to watch closely to the trend. And if necessarily, we would take due measures. Thank you.

[Koki Sato, analyst]

My second question is about strategically held shares and your thought on those shares, could we expect some changes in your thought, this time with a stakeholder, with which you had very deep relationship with and the problem arose with the stakeholder and other than that, there are some cartel issues. And as you are building a much more healthier relationship, there will be some critical eyes for the treatment of strategically held shares. And on Page 5, in the concept of next MTMP, you talk about profit stability. And another -- the company which announced results today offset underwriting profit decreased by selling their strategically held shares and such sales proceeds in your case are not included in adjusted profit. But the question is whether you are going to position strategically held shares as a tool for expected smoothing effect?

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you for the question. The basic thinking about strategically held shares is, I would say, economic rationality. Rather than selling those shares to stabilize the profit, it is through underwriting practice and portfolio review that we have been stabilizing our profit basis, both at home and abroad. And I do not intend to sell strategically held shares to stabilize our profit.

About 6 months ago, we set a policy for strategically held shares namely in 2030, it should be less than 20% of adjusted net asset. And adjusted net asset itself is increasing, both numerator and denominator have expanded. So at this moment, we have not changed our policy, but we will watch closely the current situation and the time comes to review it, we would do so. But we are now preparing ourselves to adapt IFRS in the near future. And we are discussing the definition of adjusted profit for the next MTMP. And the definition -- our definition has been close to the IFRS concept to begin with. And now the time to adopt IFRS is nearing and at this moment, we do not intend to go back to JGAPP basis.

[Koki Sato, analyst]

Last year, when you set the meeting for us with outside directors, the [ Sakurada-san ] said that, to be honest with you, strategically held shares should be zero. And with those events happening, you're saying that you have not changed your thought about how to treat strategically held shares?

[Unknown Executive]

Well, I would say that we need to look at our existing practice and systems from scratch. It's not only about strategically held shares but also redundant structure of sales rep and agent, for example. And as I mentioned earlier, the [indiscernible] is whether it will contribute to the enhancement of our corporate value. So economic rationality. As Mr. Hamada said, there is no sanctuary for us not to touch. And please understand that is our stance.

[Operator]

Next, Sasaki-san from Nomura Securities.

[Unknown Analyst]

This is Sasaki from Nomura Securities. I have 2 questions I'd like to ask. So first is about, again, Bigmotors and cartel impact. I understand there's going to be investigation underway, and you will be making -- implementing some initiatives. But then when we look at your business next fiscal year and onwards, are these issues going to impact how you're going to be running the business, for example, the premium or top line or profitability? Or perhaps when you think about your cost, do you think all these issues are going to impact your thoughts behind these elements? That's my first question.

[Unknown Executive]

Sasaki-san, thank you for your question. Now in a qualitative form, we do believe there will be some impact. We would not be able to nullify the possibility because like I said earlier, we're trying to implement preventive measures. We're trying to think of -- find out what was the root cause. And when we do that, it's not about trying to fix this like fixing a patchwork. It's really about looking at this in a more drastic manner in the mid- to long range. And from that perspective, it will, in the end, impact to the organization and our business model. But then at this moment, how would that impact in a quantitative figure is not something that we yet have been able to address. It will depend on how the report comes, and it will also something that we'd like to see more in the upcoming next mid-term plan.

[Unknown Analyst]

Got that point. So in terms of quantitative part, I would like to make sure that I ask again when you make your full year's announcement. But then, for example, looking at what's going on at the moment. For example, when you try to negotiate for labor charge at the year-end with the repair workshops, do you think this is going to change your attitude in how you'd be able to speak or negotiate with the repair workshop? Is there anything that we need to keep in mind? That's like a follow-up question.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you for your question. Anything in regards to labor cost. I do not believe that our attitude is going to change simply because of Bigmotors issue, we are aware of these issues. But then this Bigmotors issue per se is not going to change how we'd be negotiating about the labor charge.

[Unknown Executive]

If I may add some follow-up comments. I did mention this earlier with the press. But then be it about the Bigmotors or cartel issue, the first thing we have to do in terms of preventive measures is to make sure that we'd be able to do something that is very obvious. It's something that we have not been able to do, for example, being compliant or to think about our customers first in running our business. And that's something that we need to make sure that we improve ourselves today.

Now if it's about one step further issues, it really goes into how we'd be able to change the industry's practice. We want to make sure that we never experienced something like this again. And so again, it's not just about building in the whole right in front of us. We have to make sure we'd also be able to revisit the practice like the practice in the industry, if there's anything that needs to be changed, we should. But then again, today, I would not be able to give you the colors because it is something that will impact the entire industry. But then when it comes to our new mid-term plan, which is going to start from next year, we will be addressing all these issues. We do want to think how much we'd be able to challenge ourselves so that we'll be able to win back our trust.

[Unknown Analyst]

My next question is about your overseas operation. I was looking at your Page 30 in your presentation material. And also, I was looking at the left-hand side, you have the top line. For example, you have your gross premiums, you have your net premiums. And I was wondering, it seems like your top line growth rate is slowing down. When I look at your gross and net premiums, that's the impression I get. And so when we look into next fiscal year and onwards, how do you envision your overseas top line? Looking at your market conditions and especially when you look at the macro environment in the U.S., how is the management addressing the top line outside Japan? So that's my second question.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you for your question. So in regards to the overseas operation, I handed the baton to Jim. And Jim, ever since we acquired Endurance, we know that we have been really going for a very aggressive high CAGR. And now Jim is leading this operation and he means to really revisit the portfolio. So for example, maybe at the moment, the top line growth seems to be a bit slower. But then when it comes to reinsurance, you can see that the premium really hasn't been changing, but it's really the layer of underwriting that really went up. And so for example, at this moment, you see a lot of natural disasters happening.

But then when it comes to the reinsurance business of SI, it hasn't really been impacted. In other words, for these 2 years, it was really about thinking how we'd be able to replace the portfolio. It was really about this entire portfolio management, and that was really the focus of the attention. For example, there was a tentative time when the crop price has been going down, which did negatively impact the gross premium for our agro insurance. But then we do not have any sense that our growth for overseas has become slow in the mid- to long-term.

And within the next fiscal year or within the next mid-term plan, we should be able to draw a really reasonable growth line. This, of course, includes our endeavor in expanding our footprint in new markets, but we are expecting that we should be able to draw our future plan, expecting a reasonable growth.

Now it is different from the market in Japan, for example, changes in the rate environment and the capital market. If they see that there's a lot of capital going into the reinsurance side, it may soften. And so we're always discussing with the members outside Japan. And we're really focusing on how we'd be able to enhance the bottom line or profit. And that's what we need to really focus when trying to think of our future plan and future initiatives.

[Operator]

Next question is from Mr. Sakamaki of Mizuho Securities.

[Naruhiko Sakamaki, analyst]

It's Sakamaki of Mizuho Securities. My first question is about overseas business. On Page 30 and Page 35, in the dollar and in the yen. So the comparison between the 2 pages is a bit difficult. But for SI commercial, gross premiums written forecast has been revised down. Could you please talk about the top line for SI Commercial and SI Consumer business? And also as to business expenses and expense ratio it has been revised up. Could you please talk about SI Commercial and SI Consumer? Because I could imagine that there may be direction for SI Commercial and Consumer are now becoming different.

[Unknown Executive]

Sakamaki-san, thank you for the question. For example, on Page 35, let's take the example of net premiums earned because it is a strong driving force. As you said, it was revised up by JPY 100 billion or so, but the FX impact is JPY 160 billion. So in reality, it has been revised down by JPY 60 billion. And as to this, the revision, as to AgriSompo, in the first half, in particular, cotton price was down significantly. So for commercial business, minus JPY 40 billion was reflected for that. And on the commercial business, there's a strong focus on profitability. For example, they are removing unprofitable business, and that is reflected as down JPY 20 billion. And the rate increase is 6.1% and with that, billions of yen is recovered. And as to the forecast for the consumer business, the forecast is down by JPY 20 billion or so, most typically for Brazil business.

[Naruhiko Sakamaki, analyst]

And what is the reason for business expense ratio coming up? In the first quarter, I think you said that the high commission product is selling very well.

[Unknown Executive]

You're right. For example, the seeding commission for crop insurance business is 1 factor here as well. And Sompo International is now trying to expand the business areas in the U.S., expanding to launch North to the West and also in Canada and Europe. And for that purpose, they have planned some of the labor cost increase, and it is increasing as planned and also some elements that you have mentioned are reflected.

[Unknown Executive]

Some supplementary comments. This month, I participated in overseas leadership meeting. And as to portfolio management to remove unprofitable businesses. The renewal is set at 85% meaning 15% of the portfolio is replaced per annum. And through rate increases and replacement with good business, the top line might look a little bit down. And as to business expenses, due to inflation, both in Europe and in the U.S., we made some adjustments. But now inflation, as you know, is coming down. And our management has this consensus that increases in business expenses are not sustainable going forward. So business expenses are to be controlled going forward.

[Operator]

Next, we'd like to ask Otsuka-san from SBI Securities to ask your question.

[Unknown Analyst]

I'm looking at Page 4 of your presentation material. So Bigmotors, insurance claims, your writing, how these investigation will go? And so I wanted to confirm a bit. I understand that this coinsurance case is also being investigated by the external party, right?

[Unknown Executive]

Yes. As for the cartel issue, there is a separate investigation committee that is looking at this issue.

[Unknown Analyst]

So when will they be able to give you their final report? I see the time line for the Bigmotors investigation, but when would we be able to hear about you receiving the report in terms of coinsurance case?

[Unknown Executive]

For the price fixing, this external investigation committee is doing their investigation. But we have not at all heard of the time line of when they be able to submit their reports. So we don't know.

[Unknown Analyst]

So that means you said that you're going to skip doing your IR meeting because you wanted to wait for the Bigmotors report. But what about the cartel side? If you don't find the report for that, maybe we may not be able to hear much in the upcoming IR meeting, and you probably would not be able to speak much as well. So do you think you may want to wait until you receive the investigation report for the cartel? And that could mean that we may not be able to hear from you until you be able to announce your full year's results. I know it's an odd question, but is that the case?

[Unknown Executive]

It's something we haven't decided yet. But at the moment, what we are waiting for is the report for the Bigmotors case. And once we have that, we should be able to speak about this, do an IR meeting and there, we'd also want to talk about our next mid-term plan. When it comes to that cartel case, we don't really know how long it would take for the committee to come up with their final report. It may be months or it may be years. And so we don't want to wait for that before we'd be able to hold the next IR meeting. And once we know the time line, we'd be ready to talk more about this issue.

[Unknown Analyst]

So the drastic preventive measures that the CEO was talking about, that refers to Bigmotors case. And you don't know what's going to -- what the investigation committee is going to say about the cartel case. But you can't wait for that report because you need to start your next mid-term plan. And so you're just going to wait ahead, you're not going to wait for that. You're just going to go ahead and go for the next mid-term plan without that cartel case?

[Mikio Okumura, executive]

Well, some of the issues that we've learned through the cartel case, it's something that we'd be able to implement. And there are some other drastic implementations that we need to do. And so at this moment, we don't know when we'll be able to hear about the cartel case, but it doesn't mean that's not -- it doesn't mean that's going to stop us from coming up with the next mid-term or next direction. Now we know that Bigmotors report is going to come during this year. So we're going to wait for that. But even for the cartel's case, we're going to get started with what we can without waiting for the final report.

[Unknown Analyst]

I see. Because I would expect external parties will be able to give you a more objective view about what the reason behind that was. But I guess if Okumura-san, you're going to say that, when it comes to cartel issue, I guess you'd be able to make a deep dive about making this preventive measures, so I trust your words.

[Mikio Okumura, executive]

Well, of course, if we have the final report from the investigation committee, there might -- there could be some other areas we'd be able to go deep dive. But what I wanted to say was we don't want to go on a wait mode simply because we're not receiving the report. I wanted to make sure that we'd be able to implement what we can -- sorry, I was not really able to explain that.

[Unknown Analyst]

No, that's okay. I'm hoping that you'll be able to make a deep dive.

[Operator]

Next question is from Mr. Majima by Tokai Tokyo Research Center.

[Tatsuo Majima, analyst]

On Page 14, I need a clarification for some details. So for this fiscal year's plan, you have revised up net income, but the forecast for adjusted profit remains the same. And for Sompo Japan, the net income increase mainly comes from Sompo Japan's reversal of catalyst reserve. Is this mainly for automobile insurance? That's the first question.

And also for Sompo Japan, adjusted consolidated profit, minus JPY 21.5 billion in which automobile, minus JPY 12.6 billion. So my second question is what is the difference between these 2 figures?

Another question is about big motor related question. So you have been focusing on repair shops and used car dealers. My question is, are there any other -- the dealers that you send your employees for second amend other than Bigmotor -- we're setting aside whether it is problematic or not. Simply, do you send your employees to other dealers as well?

[Unknown Executive]

Majima-san, thank you for the question. So catalyst reserve drives net income. That's true. So compared to original forecast on a pretax basis for Fire and Allied Business, plus JPY 8.5 billion and for automobile, plus JPY 32.5 billion. So these are main drivers. And adjusted profit, the difference, there are various factors here. But the big factors are fire and allied insurance. What new business acquisition is slightly down, and that trend has been factored in. At the same time, losses incurred up until the first half of the year is kind of extrapolated and we assume a bit more than JPY 6 billion or so of losses incurred.

As to your second question, we second our people in the order of hundreds to dealers. And when the Bigmotor-related issue arose, we had some seconded people to other repair shops, but we now withdrew all of them. The second amend to agents -- it involves coaching for quality and other education. So there is a certain rationality as to the second amend to agents. But because of the other recent situation, we are now decreasing the number of seconded people and the freed up manpower is now being shifted to the claims service section.

[Unknown Analyst]

Thank you.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you very much.