Aeon Co Ltd

TSE:8267

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[江川 敬明, executive]

I'm Hiroaki Egawa, CFO and Executive Officer in charge of Business Management. Thank you very much for joining today's Aeon earnings briefing.

I'd like to provide an overview of our financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year ending on February 29, 2024. The first quarter marked the beginning of a full-fledged recovery in socioeconomic activities as new COVID-19 infections were reassessed to Category 5 infectious diseases, while inflationary pressures continue to mount due to the global surge in raw material prices and the weak yen.

Our first quarter consolidated operating revenue was JPY 2,324.7 billion, operating profit was JPY 51.4 billion and ordinary profit was JPY 48.1 billion, which were all new record highs.

Net income attributable to owners of the parent company was JPY 17.7 billion, a decrease of JPY 1.6 billion from the previous year. However, excluding the JPY 12.2 billion positive impact of the gain on the sale of Ministop Korea in the same period of the previous year, the net income increase was actually more than JPY 10 billion. Overall, we believe that we have achieved a good conclusion for the quarter.

This slide shows the trend of our 5-year results from fiscal year 2019 before COVID-19 to the current quarter. With the exception of net income, which was affected by a one-off factor, operating revenue and all levels of profit increased steadily.

This slide shows results by segment. Operating revenue increased in all segments. As for operating profit, the GMS, Supermarket and Discount Store businesses improved profitability by expanding sales of private brands and cost control was successful by improving productivities through the use of digital technology and reducing power consumption. In addition, the Shopping Center Development business, the Services & Specialty Store business and the International business all showed increases in profits compared to the previous fiscal year, supported by an increase in customers compared to the COVID-19 period.

Let me begin with GMS business. The graph on the left shows segment profit from pre-pandemic fiscal year 2019 to the present. GMS business returned to full term profit for the first time in 3 fiscal years in fiscal year 2022 and posted an operating profit of JPY 1 billion for the second consecutive period.

The graph on the top right shows the changes in operating profit at each company compared to fiscal year 2022. The biggest contributor to profit improvement was the increase of JPY 1.5 billion at Aeon Kyushu, which work on strengthening food and promoting DX to set new records for operating revenue and each profit type.

Aeon Retail's profit was down JPY 2 billion compared to fiscal year 2022. In GMS business overall, sales and customer traffic increased due to the successful development of the TOPVALU BESTPRICE brand with its price advantages and value-added type products aimed at the polarization of consumption as shown in the graph on the lower left.

In addition, following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, we captured changes in demand associated with the expansion of opportunities to go out with certainty and Apparel and Health & Beauty Care are also performing well. As shown in the graph on the right, Aeon Retail has factored in increases in personnel expenses and the soaring cost of energy since the start of the term. And the budget for the first quarter was for a decline in profit and landing in the red. Although we've been able to implement cost control efforts through structural reforms in recent years, Aeon Fresh Foods and Home Furnishing products, the gross profit fell slightly due to the depreciation of the yen and soaring raw material prices. The gross profit recovered greatly from fiscal year 2022 and operating profit was generally in line with expectations.

On the other hand, Aeon efforts aimed at boosting earnings and earning structure reforms, apart from continuing the reduction of electricity usage and improvement of productivity, there are prospects for further cost reductions centered on the store management costs from the second quarter onwards. As a result, we plan to return operating profit to parity with fiscal year 2022 in the first half.

Inventory increased in the first quarter due to the impact of changes in the SPA structure for Apparel and Home Furnishing products, but inventory of stores has remained at above the optimal level since the end of fiscal year 2022. To boost the earnings of our shopping centers, we focused on the strengthening of measures to attract customers, the reduction of vacant floor space and increases in the temporary use of tenants such as kitchen cars. As the numbers of customers, which decreased during the pandemic recovered, so too did tenant rent revenue.

Finally, with regard to digital transformation, we have newly introduced AI orders and are rolling out various equipment to all stores to improve productivity. We will make efforts to accelerate our growth orbit by redeploying the available people generated by efficiency improvements into growth areas, such as the improvement of customer services and the online supermarket.

Supermarket business has seen profits decline continuously since 2020 due to the erosion of special demand due to COVID-19, but we were finally able to reverse that trend this quarter. The graph on the right shows changes in operating profit by company. Customer traffic increased gradually in association with the recovery in flows of people and sales recovered at My Basket, United Super Markets Holdings and Daiei stores in the Tokyo metropolitan area and Kansai area, resulting in a great increase in profit.

As the 2 graphs at the bottom show, both sales and customer traffic have improved as a result of making efforts to strengthen promotions and expand sales using the TOPVALU price advantage in response to the growing number of customers seeking to economize. In addition, thorough control of SG&A expenses has become a common factor in improved profits at individual supermarket business companies with initiatives, including the streamlining of personnel hours through the introduction of self-checkouts and the reduction of power consumption by replacing refrigerator and freezer cases with more energy-efficient ones.

Discount Store business saw increased revenue and profits due to the rollout of bulk products ahead of the continuation of high prices and the development of private brand products unique to the Discount Store business. There was a surge in dine-in demand due to the pandemic in fiscal year 2020. But alongside this result, the Discount Store business operating profit was JPY 1.6 billion. The SG&A ratio has also improved significantly as a result of measures such as a thorough implementation of target management for man-hour sales by store.

In the Health & Wellness business, demand for products related to COVID-19 countermeasures, such as masks and antigen test kits as well as PCR and other tests declined as infections shrink. On the other hand, there are signs of a recovery in demand for cosmetics and demand from visitors to Japan following the increase in opportunities to go out and the relaxation of restrictions in various countries. While changes took place in the product mix, the segment operating profit was JPY 7.1 billion.

In the prescription drug section, as the number of stores with a dispensing pharmacy and the number of prescriptions accepted increased, prescription drug sales maintained high growth steadily. Among sales of nonmedical products, sales of COVID-19-related products declined, but sales of cosmetics and seasonal products to combat sunburn and body care products remained strong.

In terms of SG&A expenses, although utility expenses increased significantly due to soaring energy prices, we work on the optimization of expenses through initiatives to reduce energy consumption at stores and by streamlining store work through the promotion of automatic ordering. We are promoting the acquisition of members with WAON POINT, which was introduced through Welcia stores nationwide in March 2023. New customers are also visiting stores, and we would like to gain momentum for business expansion.

Next, the Financial Services business. Both in Japan and overseas, transaction volumes and operating receivables expanded and revenue increased, but bad debt expenses increased and profit declined due to the impact of investment for growth and the government's debtor protection policies overseas ending or being reduced. However, the increases in these expenses were factored into initial expectations and operating profit for the quarter exceeded expectations. In Japan, despite an increase in card revenues, profit declined due to increases in point-based sales promotion expenses and bad debt expenses. The accumulation of operating receivables for the future progressed steadily and results exceeded expectations.

As shown in the table in the middle on the right, shopping transactions have been strong, driven by areas, including travel, leisure and entertainment. The tendency for operating receivables to expand continued and they have recovered to pre-pandemic levels. In addition, the cash advance transaction volume increased to 117% of the previous year, and the balance of operating receivables turned positive for the previous year for the first time since 2019.

Overseas, as shown in the table on the lower right, revenue increased in all 3 areas, but profit declined in the Mekong and Malay areas due to an increase in bad debt expenses. In Thailand, especially in addition to the economic downturn and rising prices, the end of the government's debtor protection policies led to the recovery rate falling, centered on customer segments with low levels of income. So depreciation increased slightly and operating profit declined significantly. From now on, we will improve the recovery rate by reviewing credit limits in this weaning process and reforming the recovery system by strengthening personnel.

Now the Shopping Center Development business. Operating profit increased by JPY 1.0 billion to JPY 14.0 billion year-on-year. At malls in Japan, which were slow to recover, we strengthened family-oriented events and customer traffic increased. As shown in the graph on the lower right, tenant sales results recovered to within expectations, reaching 108% compared to the previous year. The sales of amusement services and dining tenants increased greatly.

On the other hand, overseas on a results basis from January to March, operating revenue increased by more than double digits resulting in higher revenue and profits as we captured post-pandemic purchasing demand and demand related to the Lunar New Year in various countries and regions.

Next, the Services & Specialty Store business. Operating profit increased to JPY 5.5 billion. Services & Specialty Store business suffered a significant decline in results during the pandemic and has recovered gradually, while we implemented COVID-19 countermeasures. Results have improved to the point we are almost at the 2019 level. By individual company, Aeon Entertainment, the operator of Aeon Cinema, saw profit increase significantly with customer traffic increasing by 30% compared to the previous year due to the customer attracting effects of Detective Conan and The Super Mario Brothers movie.

The increase in customer traffic at Aeon Cinema generated group synergies as customer traffic increased at Aeon Mall and other group companies. GFOOT, which is working to reform its earnings structure with the aim of returning to profitability and operating income during the current fiscal year and COX, which revised its earnings forecast with improved profits by strengthening its brand power and reforming merchandising, are major contributors to the increase in profits in the Services & Specialty Store business.

Lastly, the International business. Operating profit increased to JPY 3.2 billion. In China, during the first Lunar New Year after the pandemic restrictions were lifted, businesses experienced an increase in revenue and profitability. This was due to meeting the demands for homecoming, travel and preparations for holidays and the new school year. The number of store visitors also significantly increased with a strong performance in Lunar New Year related products.

In ASEAN Business at Aeon Malaysia, the shift in demand to essential goods and low-priced products continued in line with the heightened sense of livelihood protection after Ramadan due to the impact of economic stagnation. In anticipation of such an environment, we worked on everyday low price promotions, while using private brands, a strength of Aeon, which resulted in Retail business sales increasing. Mall business revenue also expanded leading to higher revenue and profit.

At Aeon Vietnam, the impacts of the economic downturn are starting to appear slightly. Stores across the country had great success leading up to the first post-pandemic tech as the company bolstered its strategy of strengthening food sales. Sales of private brands of Apparel and Home Furnishing products or uniquely developed products were also strong, but impacted by upfront investments in new electronic commerce business and the like. Operating profit was unable to reach its level of the previous year and declined.

This slide shows the assumptions for the consolidated earnings forecast for the current fiscal year and the actual results for the first quarter. As we announced in April, we expect an increase of approximately JPY 30 billion in utility expenses and JPY 50 billion in personnel expenses in our earnings forecast for the current fiscal year.

In the first quarter, most companies were able to manage utility expenses within budget by replacing refrigerator and freezer cases with new energy-saving models and energy-generating equipment and controlling usage. As a result, we were able to control utility expenses on a consolidated basis within expectations with a year-on-year increase of JPY 6 billion. The impact on personnel expenses is approximately an increase of JPY 11.0 billion, which is roughly within our expectations. We will continue our efforts to improve productivity at group companies.

There is no change to the forecast announced at the beginning of the period. In the first quarter, the company has made progress above the expected line. In the second quarter and beyond, we expect to see further increases in raw material prices, in addition to the impact of strategic increases in labor costs and higher utility costs. Cost control measures have been working well so far, and we are aiming to operate within budget from the second quarter onward. The group will work as one to achieve the full year forecast by taking advantage of new demand after COVID-19 and steadily increasing the top line, while implementing a variety of measures.

Finally, I would like to briefly touch on our sustainability initiatives. First, in response to the growing interest in organic products and the growth of the market for them, we announced that we will expand sales of the Gurinai Organic series to JPY 60 billion, equivalent to 30% of the domestic organic market by 2025. The number of customers interested in organic food is certainly increasing, and we think that this market will grow substantially, both in Japan and overseas.

Further, in addition to the organic image of being gentle on the body, the image of being environmentally friendly is also growing, especially among millennials and Generation Z. Gurinai, which marks its 30th anniversary this year, will affirm its position as the top runner in environmentally-friendly products as the brand that embodies environmental Aeon under the concept "More peace of mind, safer for the environment."

Second, we announced that by 2025, all TOPVALU merchandise will be replaced with environmentally-friendly 3R products developed with one of more of reduce, reuse, recycle in mind. These products will be rolled out with their packaging, showing messaging, informing customers of the specific actions taken with them or the environmentally-friendly 3R mark unique to TOPVALU. These products will be rolled out with their packaging, showing messages and informing customers of the specific actions taken with them or the environmentally-friendly 3R mark unique to TOPVALU. This will allow customers who choose TOPVALU merchandising, bearing the environmentally-friendly 3R mark in their daily shopping, to participate naturally in 3R activities and lead to consumer activities, conscious of the resolution of social issues. Aeon will continue to aim for sustainable management that enriches customers, regional society and living using our diverse capacity, including the products and services provided by the company.

That concludes my briefing. Thank you very much.

[Unknown Analyst]

You have reported that the first quarter showed favorable results. Can you give us your views on how each business segment performed against company projections? Whether they were favorable or otherwise?

[Unknown Executive]

Performance in the first quarter was favorable overall with the Retail business showing strong results among segments. GMS, Supermarket and Discount Store results surpassed our internal budget figures. As for the Services & Specialty Store segment, circumstances are steadily returning to normal after a challenging period during the pandemic. These segments exceeded our budget.

The Shopping Center Development and the Financial Services segments performed as expected. Profit figures for the Finance Services segment fell sharply from the previous year, but we're in line with targets since we have been expecting a decrease in the first quarter. Business in the Shopping Center Development segment is steadily returning to normal, and we expect customer traffic to recover from here onward.

International business, which we expected to grow rapidly in the wake of the pandemic, did not perform as well as was expected and showed a slight downward swing. Profits were driven by the ASEAN region, but showed a slight downward trend due to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions in some countries. Approximately JPY 5 billion of operating profit has been recorded as adjustments.

[Unknown Analyst]

Looking at the breakdown, this is mainly attributable to improvement in merchandise suppliers profit. Can you explain the background? Do you expect this to continue in the second quarter and onward or is it considered a transient event?

[Unknown Executive]

The JPY 5 billion recorded as adjustments is almost equivalent to the amount of improvement from the previous year. This can be attributed to Aeon Topvalu Co. Ltd. and logistics-related subsidiaries and affiliates, which are called functional subsidiaries and affiliates.

[Unknown Analyst]

Was the amount recorded as adjustments for a particular reason? Will profits be recorded as adjustments in the future as well when results are favorable?

[Unknown Executive]

Aeon Topvalu Co. Ltd. showed a very poor performance in the previous fiscal year because of soaring costs. Over the course of the year, the company underwent structural reforms, significantly reducing external and nonconsolidated expenses and transforming itself into a muscular organization.

Going forward, cost reductions will begin to improve its effectiveness throughout the year. Much of the same can be said about logistics subsidiaries and affiliates.

[Unknown Analyst]

You mentioned the Retail-related segments are showing remarkable recovery. What can you tell us about your competitive pricing strategies? Well, I understand that one way competitive pricing strategies do not match current consumption behavior, do you think you could lower the already low BESTPRICE series by using the aforementioned adjustments as a buffer or our current price is competitive enough?

Conversely, I believe there is still room for growth for red TOPVALU's value-added products. Please share with us your approach to strategic pricing.

[Unknown Executive]

We are seeing soaring raw material prices and, again, a weakening yen as a major trend. On the other hand, we acknowledge that, although nominal wages are increasing, real wages are declining, placing a severe strain on household finances. We believe that it is our mission to respond to this situation by offering affordable prices. We have repositioned our private brand product since the previous fiscal year. We changed BESTPRICE's brand logo to a yellow circle in order to clearly differentiate it from red TOPVALU.

As for BESTPRICE, we will further promote our price appeal type strategy by reviewing raw materials and packaging materials in order to secure attractive prices for our customers. On the other hand, people's lifestyles at home and their needs and preferences for particular products change as consumption patterns and living environments change. In response to such dietary habits, we provide 2 different private brands to capture demand on both ends of the market, positioning Red TOPVALU as a value-added type brand, offering value that exceeds the price. We will implement strategic pricing based on clear brand concepts in order to respond to changes in society.

[Unknown Analyst]

What factors are behind TOPVALU's double-digit growth and increase in profit? Is it correct to understand that the price freeze, et cetera, appeal to consumers and the subsequent steps, including product replacement, revision and termination and the introduction of value-added type products were successful, resulting in increased sales of group companies and also higher profit recorded in adjustments?

[Unknown Executive]

With regards to TOPVALU, we've been offering products, meeting customer needs in the form of the announcement of the price freeze on TOPVALU brand products. Many investors question whether the strategy would lead to profits. Offering 2 different price ranges, with BESTPRICE, we work hard to cut every yen possible from the cost of packaging materials and logistics to realize improved profitability and a price freeze. We believe this was well received by customers with products becoming more attractive to them, increasing customer traffic and supermarkets.

At the same time, we also strategically promoted revision and termination of price appeal type red TOPVALU products. It may have been difficult to tell the difference between yellow and red in the past, and the prices were not that different. However, by renewing red products one by one, we were able to highlight their value.

From a corporate perspective, we have renewed products and set their prices at profitable levels. This, we believe, has paid off recently in higher media exposure for the Red TOPVALU brand and other products. We want our customers to see for themselves the Red TOPVALU products. The mixture of gross profit has contributed to achieving a positive spiral of higher sales of the TOPVALU brand, which in turn leads to higher profitability. With the current fiscal year, the entire TOPVALU brand aims to achieve overall TOPVALU sales of JPY 1 trillion.

[Unknown Analyst]

In the past, President Yoshida mentioned point-based sales promotion as a method to change in anxious atmosphere under the pandemic and bringing customers to the entire mall. The [ Boeing Bay ] sale promotion increased sales considerably from the third quarter of the previous fiscal year, but didn't that also cause gross margin to fall?

While the effect on Aeon Mall, Aeon Financial Service, Aeon Retail, et cetera, may have been negative from the third quarter of the previous fiscal year up to the first half of the current fiscal year, wouldn't you agree of the year-on-year effect start to ease from the second half of the current year? Moreover, continued point-based sales promotion might even attract more customers and yield profit from the second half and onward. As was the case for TOPVALU, can we expect a profit after a challenging situation at the beginning?

Aeon Retail has also seen a decline in gross margin. Is it correct to understand that under the current accounting standard, point-based sales promotion is a major factor adversely affecting gross profit? Does the entire Aeon group see point-based sales promotion as an upfront investment and expect a better balance from the second half of the current fiscal year?

[Unknown Executive]

What you have said about point-based sales promotion is true. It is being promoted strategically to attract more customers to Aeon Malls, et cetera. With Aeon Financial Service working to create an appealing environment for customers to use Aeon credit cards. The efforts resulted in significant growth in customer traffic to Aeon Malls as well as a steady credit balance at Aeon Financial Service in the first quarter. We believe that we have successfully won the trust of Aeon's customers.

From March, as part of the Aeon Living zone, customers are also granted WAON POINTs when shopping at Welcia stores, which is the core brand of our Health & Wellness business. Welcia has seen an increase of 4.8 million WAON POINT members in the first quarter alone, equivalent to a little more than 10% of the current Welcia membership, which exceeds 40 million. We would like to increase our customer base by having customers use WAON POINTs, a common point program and feel that shopping at Aeon is fun.

[Unknown Analyst]

Functional companies made a positive contribution in the first quarter, but are expected to incur upfront expenses with the current term due to an increase in investment in Green Beans, which operates as a dark store type of online supermarket. Do you expect that adjustments not included in reportable segments will adversely affect earnings for the coming quarter?

[Unknown Executive]

As was announced on the day before yesterday, Green Beans has started operation. The investment in the business did not begin in the current quarter, and the costs have always been recorded as depreciations and amortizations, et cetera, in line with accounting standards and we do not see any new or additional costs for the second quarter and onward.

There have been costs already incurred since before the start of the business, such as that for hiring employees. Although a reasonable amount of expenses will be incurred in the current fiscal year, they have been accounted for in the annual budget and are not expected to increase suddenly in the second quarter and onward.

[Unknown Analyst]

You mentioned that utility expenses and personnel expenses were within expectations in the first quarter. One gets the impression that together with actual increases in electricity costs and wages, overall costs seem to have been contained in the first quarter compared with the annual budget. It is my understanding correct?

[Unknown Executive]

The utility expense increase was capped at a JPY 6 billion level for the first quarter as a result of making every possible effort doing everything we could. Electricity usage was at approximately 90% of the previous year as a result of various efforts, including coordination with utility companies as well as energy saving and energy generation efforts.

Electricity costs will probably fluctuate in the future depending on fuel costs and exchange rates, but we have relatively clear projections for the second quarter and believe they will remain below JPY 6 billion. This may change depending on the environment throughout the second half of the year.

Personnel expense increase of JPY 11 billion maybe a little too conservative. Bonus payments, among others, will be added in the second half of the fiscal year and the year-on-year increase of personnel expenses may exceed JPY 11 billion in the second quarter. However, at the moment, we expect them to remain within budget by implementing various measures, including increased productivity.