Mitsui & Co Ltd

TSE:8031

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q3

[Takakazu Uchida, executive]

Good afternoon. I am Takakazu Uchida, CFO. Thank you for joining us today. I will begin by giving a summary of the third quarter operating results and yearly forecast. I will then hand over to our Global Controller, Tetsuya Shigeta, for details of our operating results.

In the first 9 months of 2021, the global economy continued to rebound overall, although the pace of economic recovery do slowed due to the rapid spread of the Omicron variant as well as due to the prolonged supply constraints. Under this business environment, Mitsui continued to achieve strong performance in the third quarter based on our robust global business portfolio.

Please turn to Page 3. I will provide a summary of operating results for the third quarter. Core Operating Cash Flow, COCF, for the period increased by JPY 369.5 billion to JPY 862.9 billion, and profit for the period increased by JPY 434.4 billion to JPY 633.3 billion year-on-year, both reaching record historical levels. By firmly taking the upside of commodity market conditions, improving the quality of our business portfolio and strengthening our earnings base, we achieved high rate of progress in comparison to the previous forecast, announced at the time of the second quarter's financial results.

Based on Above, we have upwardly revised our yearly forecast. COCF and profit forecast were upwardly revised by JPY 170 billion to JPY 1.09 trillion and by JPY 120 billion to JPY 840 billion, respectively. The year-end dividend is increased by JPY 10 per share from our previous forecast to JPY 60 per share, resulting into the annual dividend of JPY 105 per share for March 2022. Further, we intend to formulate our business plan assuming the annual dividend outlook for the last year of MTMP, Medium-term Management Plan, of March 2023 at JPY 120 per share. We will continue to steer the company's management while paying full attention to the business environment, especially the spread of Omicron variant and impact of the U.S. monetary tightening on the global economy.

Please turn to Page 4. We expect good performance in all segments, and we achieved progress of 94% and 88%, respectively, against previous forecast for COCF and profit. In Mineral & Metal Resources, we continue to achieve strong profitability by steadily capturing commodity prices through our well-balanced and highly cost competitive business portfolio and high coking coal price, while the decline in iron ore prices from the historical high in the first quarter also seemed to have bottomed out.

Furthermore, in addition to Chemicals, and Iron & Steel Products that continue to demonstrate strong trading functions, increased competitiveness of each business, strengthened earnings base such as in automotive and health care and FVTPL profit also contributed to performance. In Energy, valuation gain loss related to derivative transactions to hedge LNG trading was recognized in advance, but full year performance is expected to exceed previous forecasts.

Please turn to Page 5. As I mentioned earlier, we have upwardly revised our yearly forecast for COCF to JPY 1.09 trillion. We upwardly revised the Mineral & Metal Resources segment by JPY 60 billion due to an increase in dividends received from the iron ore and ferroalloys businesses in China and higher coking coal price. And the Energy segment by JPY 60 billion due to increase in oil and gas prices and good LNG trading performance. Additionally, as a result of upward revisions in all segments, centered on Machinery & Infrastructure, and Chemicals, primarily due to an increase in dividends received from affiliates and good operation and trading performance, we have upwardly revised our yearly forecast by JPY 170 billion against JPY 920 billion across the company.

Next, turn to Page 6. We have upwardly revised our yearly profit forecast in all segments totaling JPY 840 billion. The upward revision of JPY 120 billion to the previous forecast of JPY 720 billion. It's mainly due to expansion of base profit as well as commodity and ForEx fluctuations. The upward revision of JPY 70 billion reflects continued competitiveness and high rate of progress in both group companies and trading, such as automotive business, ferroalloys businesses in China, LNG, chemicals, and steel products, while the upward revision of JPY 30 billion reflects improvement in earnings resulting from market commodity and ForEx fluctuations. The total upward revision is JPY 120 billion, including other valuation factors and asset recycling.

Please turn to Page 7. Next, I will explain an action plans for each segment, which was set out at the beginning of the year and which have been organized into strengthening trading functions, competitiveness of existing businesses, and transformation of business portfolio, together with project implementation and contribution to earnings, and strategic focus, which have made progress in the current quarter among the priority measures.

I will begin by explaining the action plan for the period. Firstly, the demonstration of trading functions amid supply chain disruptions contributed to stable supply in chemicals, and steel products, and food, which boosted the performance of the current period. Also in various businesses, such as the automotive business, including Penske Group in the United States, and the health care centered on IHH, we further enhance the competitiveness of each business by strengthening the management base, reducing costs, and accelerating the implementation of growth strategy, which we had started even before the spread of COVID-19.

Further, we have continued to patiently reduce costs in group companies, and the results of lowering the breakeven point have led to improvement of performance in each company. We also made progress in transformation of business portfolio, such as the merger of textiles business of Nippon Steel Trading Corporation with Mitsui Bussan I-Fashion, the acquisition of additional shares in Mitsui Oil Exploration and the sale of some businesses in the Machinery & Infrastructure, and Mineral & Metal Resources segments.

In project implementation and contribution to earnings, we steadily implemented large projects while taking appropriate measures in each field, even during the pandemic for this development of a successful deposit of iron ore operations in Australia, expansion of copper operations in Chile, progress on the Arctic 2 LNG project and commencement of operations on the gas-fired power generation project in Thailand.

Next, I will explain progress on the business areas of strategic focus that are defined in the current medium-term management plan. In Energy Solutions, we made progress in the formation of business leading to reduction of greenhouse gas and responding to ESG, such as participating in Australian forestry carbon credit project, commencing a feasibility study for low-carbon ammonia production in Australia and UAE, and promoting mobility, electrification through a collaboration agreement by strengthening the capital alliance with Forsee Power, a battery system manufacturer.

In healthcare/nutrition, we made progress in nutritional food while proceeding with participation agreement in Hendrix Genetics, multi-species animal genetics and technology company in the Netherlands, and the participation in ISI Sementi an Italian vegetables seeds company.

In Market Asia, we subscribe to the convertible bonds issued by the holding company of CT Corp in Indonesia, and making continuous efforts to improve its enterprise value. We have also steadily changed the level of Mitsui's earnings and implemented growth strategy measures aimed at the future through strengthening our functions and competitiveness in existing business and portfolio transformation. We will continue to accelerate these efforts and realize unceasing transform and grow.

Please turn to Page 8. In this section, I will discuss about cash flow allocations for the third quarter of the current fiscal year. Cash-in for the period was JPY 1.076 trillion, comprising COCF of JPY 863 billion, and asset recycling of JPY 213 billion. Principal asset recycling included loan collection in the copper business and sale of the contract manufacturing business of MicroBiopharm Japan Co. Ltd. Cash-out was JPY 553 billion, comprising investments and loans of JPY 351 billion, and shareholders' return of JPY 202 billion that is share buybacks of JPY 129 billion and dividend of JPY 73 billion. Main projects for investment and loans included subscription to the convertible bond issued by the holding company of CT Corp.

Maintenance CapEx for existing oil and gas projects, Australian iron ore and coal operations, LNG, and power generation projects under development, and real estate business. We will continue strategic allocation of funds to growth investments and shareholder returns corresponding to the increases in COCF. Comprehensively considering the investment opportunities and the business environment.

Please turn to Page 9. In the last part of my presentation, I will discuss shareholder returns. In December last year, we decided to perform share buybacks of up to JPY 50 billion. And the total amount executed during current financial year is expected to be JPY 175 billion. And as I explained earlier, we have raised the annual dividend forecast to JPY 105 per share with a year-end dividend to be JPY 60 per share for the fiscal year ending March 2022. Based on this, total shareholder returns as a percentage of Core Operating Cash Flow for the first 2 years of the current MTMP is expected to be 32%.

We will continue to consider increasing dividends and also conducting share buybacks in a flexible manner, corresponding to stable improvement of cash generation ability.

That completes my part of the presentation today. I will now hand over to our Global Controller, Tetsuya Shigeta, for details of the third quarter performance.

[Tetsuya Shigeta, executive]

Thank you. I am Tetsuya Shigeta, Global Controller, and I will now provide details of our operating results for the third quarter.

Please turn to Page 11. First, I will explain the main changes in COCF by segment compared to the previous period. COCF for the period was JPY 862.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of JPY 369.5 billion. In Mineral & Metal Resources, COCF increased by JPY 227.8 billion to JPY 433 billion, mainly due to higher sales price of iron ore and coal operations in Australia, increase in dividend from Vale, copper operation, and ferroalloys businesses in China. In energy, COCF increased by JPY 50.2 billion to JPY 152.9 billion, mainly due to an increase in oil and gas prices.

In Machinery & Infrastructure, COCF increased by JPY 48.7 billion to JPY 113.2 billion, mainly due to good performance of group companies centered on automotive, and an increase in the dividends from equity method affiliates. In Chemicals, COCF increased by JPY 23.4 billion to JPY 71.9 billion, mainly due to good performance of group companies and trading following favorable market conditions, and also through optimal response to supply constraints.

In Iron & Steel Products, COCF increased by JPY 7.1 billion to JPY 9.2 billion, mainly from good performance in trading driven by steady steel market. In Lifestyle, COCF increased by JPY 22.2 billion to JPY 33.5 billion, mainly due to steady food production business, good performance in grain trading business, and health care staffing business in the U.S., and the sale of Columbia Asia business in India.

In Innovation & Corporate Development, COCF declined by JPY 5 billion to JPY 35.1 billion. Other factors such as expenses, interest, taxes, et cetera, which are not allocated to business segments totaled JPY 14.1 billion.

Please turn to Page 12. I will now explain the main changes in profit by segment compared to the previous year. Profit for the period increased by JPY 434.4 billion to JPY 632.3 billion. In Mineral & Metal Resources, profits increased by JPY 294 billion to JPY 370.9 billion due to factors such as higher sales price of iron ore, and coal operations in Australia, and copper operations, and increase in dividends from Vale. In Energy, profits increased by JPY 1.6 billion to JPY 28.3 billion, mainly due to increase in oil and gas prices, although there was absence of deferred tax assets resulting from reorganization of U.S. energy subsidiaries recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

In Machinery & Infrastructure, profits increased by JPY 57 billion to JPY 92.2 billion, mainly due to good performance of the automotive business, primarily in North America, in addition to the absence of the impairment of the rolling stock leasing group company incurred in the previous period. In Chemicals, profits increased by JPY 19.2 billion to JPY 51.6 billion, mainly due to good performance of trading business and the methanol business.

In Iron & Steel Products, profits increased by JPY 24.1 billion to JPY 21.3 billion, mainly due to the improvement in operations rate at group companies due to recovery in automotive production and good performance in trading. In Lifestyle, profit increased by JPY 43.2 billion to JPY 42.8 billion, mainly due to recovery of salmon and fashion businesses, good performance of grain trading and an increase in profits in the health care business. In Innovation & Corporate Development, profits increased by JPY 4.8 billion to JPY 42.2 billion, mainly due to sale of multifamily housing property in U.S. Other factors such as expenses, interest, taxes, et cetera, which are not allocated to business segments totaled JPY 16 billion.

Please turn to Page 13. Which shows the main factors influencing year-on-year changes in profit. Base profit increased by approximately JPY 190 billion. This was mainly due to increase in dividends received from iron ore business and strong profitability of segments such as Machinery & Infrastructure, Lifestyle, Chemicals and Iron & Steel Products. Looking at resource-related costs and volume, profit decreased by approximately JPY 26 billion due to the impact of rising labor costs in the Mineral & Metal Resource business, and also decreasing volume due to the decline of the rolling stock leasing group company. Asset recycling resulted in an increase of approximately JPY 11 billion in profits, mainly due to the partial sale of shares of PHC Holdings and the sale of multifamily housing property in the United States.

In commodity prices/ForEx, profit increased by approximately JPY 199 billion. Commodity prices increased approximately JPY 80 billion due to steady iron ore prices, approximately JPY 38 billion due to coal prices and approximately JPY 45 billion due to oil and gas prices. In ForEx, weaker yen resulted in an increase in profit of approximately JPY 18 billion.

Finally, valuation gain/loss and special factors contributed to an increase of approximately JPY 60 billion, mainly due to the absence of impairment loss in the Moatize coal and infrastructure projects, including the same period of the previous year.

Please turn to Page 14. Now let's take a look at the balance sheet as of the end of the third quarter of the current fiscal year. Compared to the end of March 2021, net interest-bearing debt increased by approximately JPY 220 billion to JPY 3.5 trillion. Meanwhile, shareholder equity increased by approximately JPY 410 billion to JPY 5 trillion. As a result, net DER became 0.71x.

That concludes my presentation. Thank you.

[Unknown Analyst]

Thank you for the presentation. I have two questions. Firstly, I think everybody was surprised about dividend on Page 3. The JPY 10 increase in the dividend was decided and the next fiscal year, JPY 120 per share as expected.

One question. Previously, there is always a minimum standard set for the dividend. I think that wording was there, but this JPY 120 per share as a forecast for the next fiscal year. Is it something that we understand as the minimum level of the dividend and cash generating capability, the for the past -- based on the past 3 months of the first half, you have understood that this have been increased. And including forward-looking prospects, you have come up with JPY 120 per share, I would assume. So this core operating cash generating capability, you have understood that this has been raised, but how did you arrive at JPY 120 per share. That's my first question.

And second question is a bit deviating from partially the earnings report. But for the next fiscal year, it is -- I'm sure, premature, but price fluctuations in resource prices, that's out of your control. But for the other factors, are there any concerns when you consider sustainability including the business sentiment. If you have any concerns, please share them with us.

And related to that, deviating from the earnings report, there is an issue of Russia. You -- your company and Mitsubishi Corp. have relatively higher exposure to the country, Russia. And there is uncertainty and there might be economic sanctions, and there could be a ban on the use of SWIFT remittance system. And there are various simulations you may be running. So you may not be able to deduct the dividend from the companies in Russia. That may be one of the concerns. So if you have any concerns about Russia for the next fiscal year, please share them with us.

[Takakazu Uchida, executive]

Uchida speaking. First, on the dividend. -- for the second half of this fiscal year, JPY 60 is the focus. And this will be decided at the Board, and then it will be determined approved at the shareholders' meeting, but you can understand that JPY 60 per share will be paid.

And as for the next fiscal year, considering the stability of the dividend, of course, we have to start with the JPY 60 level. So that is how we would come up with the business plan for the next fiscal year.

With and so the -- for the medium-term management plan, final year would be the next fiscal year. So in the next medium-term management plan, we will review the shareholder return policy. So we have not deliberately used -- not used the minimum standard, but JPY 105 for this fiscal year and JPY 120 for the next fiscal year, I hope you can understand that this is a commitment from us to the market.

And as for the Mineral & Metal Resources, and Energy, we have had a stronger numbers. But for Energy segment, the conventional LNG dividend, E&P business oil price increase, those have been taken into account. But Cameron project that has been started. And for our capacity operation, and the full contribution has been continued. And so we can benefit from that. And also including other LNG projects, as the LNG trading functions, there is a scale, a significant contribution to the profit. And of course, there is some market initiative, but we can expect a stable contribution.

Now and also, other than Energy & Resources, Machinery & Infrastructure, Chemicals, Lifestyle, and steel -- Iron & Steel Products, Innovation & Corporate Development, the JPY 300 billion or more has been contributed from those segments. And of course, there is a tailwind that we are enjoying currently. But the profit improvement in the existing business and increased competitiveness. These are the efforts that we have made, and we have seen steady performance in these segments. And that's how we have decided that we can expect increased dividend for the midterm. So we have come up with that number JPY 120.

Now for the economic prospect, the inflationary economic situation. Is it going to be temporary or is it going to be continued? That's the question. But from the interim report, as for the future prospect, there is a high uncertainty, that's what we said. But Omicron variant increase, those are some of the factors that we are concerned with. But in our business segments, the steady business performance continued. There might be some slowdown in some segments, but the environment is expected to continue for the time being, in my personal view. But of course, U.S. monetary policy and market, if the balance is disrupted, and then there could be some correction. But as a main scenario, I think these business segment, the market sentiment, is expected to continue until the end of this year in terms of time frame.

So -- and for instance, was done the other day. And for the global economy, from this year to next year, it is expected to slow down. But if you look at the absolute number, compared to the past average numbers, it is going to be higher in terms of recovery of the global economy. And that's for inflationary trend, there are many other factors in addition to COVID-19, labor shortage, and tight labor market, if you can consider those, even if there is a recovery from COVID-19, we may not be able to expect the situation to be back in the pre-COVID-19 stage.

And as for Russian risk, we are doing business globally and geopolitical risks are quite close to the heart, and it is affecting our business. And the sanctions, if they are exerted -- and then the impact on our businesses, well are now under detailed analysis. And what sort of actions can we take is something that we have been considering as we put together the project. And we have been working with related authorities in proceeding with the projects. So we are assuming various scenarios, but we will be even more cautious and keep a close eye on that.

[Unknown Analyst]

I would like to ask two questions, especially in the non-resource areas, Machinery, Lifestyle, and also in Chemicals compared to the second quarter, I believe the momentum is improving. That is my impression. So what made it improved from the second quarter. So what are the characteristics that you're seeing for the improvement?

And my second question, it is very difficult, but we are all concerned about the next fiscal year. In the fourth quarter, I think there are improvements that are being forecasted and we believe that, that is achievable. But what is the actual ability of the company for making profits? I think it will depend on the Energy, especially related to the derivatives. So what is the total profit that can be expected? I think the ability for earnings is said, is that correct? for about JPY 200 billion.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you very much for the question. In the third quarter, the resource segment, partly because of PHC and gain on sales, there was a onetime profits that were concentrated in the numbers. So I believe it is going to be quite flat. I don't think it is a big value-wise, but in the U.S., the Steel business is doing well. And as for Chemicals and also mobility, I think it is quite steady to strong. And of course, for Lifestyle, the IHH, I think it is growing. That is where the contribution is coming from. I don't think I can use the word acceleration. However, from the second quarter, gradually, we believe there will be a slowdown. We believe that the level of growth has been maintained into the third quarter.

And as for the ability to -- for earnings next fiscal year, I think that's a very difficult question to answer. But the level of JPY 200 billion. I think you're talking about Mineral & Metal Resources, and also Energy. And if we [indiscernible] will it be JPY 800 billion, which is quite similar to the numbers that we have this year. So I think we need to monitor and see whether this is achievable. But it will depend on the market, but there are some tailwinds that we're experiencing. But with the supply and demand coming tight, compared to the past, I believe that there are expansion of the margins. So it will depend on the economic situation. But if the margins become normal, I believe that it may stabilize going forward. But compared to the previous levels, whether we will go back to that level next fiscal year, I don't think that will be the case. That is my impression.

[Unknown Analyst]

So this is me speaking very frankly. But other than resources, I think there were areas in which you are lagging behind other companies. But under COVID-19, you have very -- you have become very strong in these segments. And of course, this may be the results of the initiatives that you have been taking -- so is that the kind of discussion that you may be having in-house? How do you analyze the results yourselves? The improvement, excluding the environment factors, what is making the performance so good? Do you have -- can you give us any hints as to what your thoughts are?

[Unknown Executive]

Yes, we would like to answer in the flow of the comments that you have made. But the situation we are seeing at the moment, this has started 4 to 5 years ago, we have been taking initiatives. From previous medium-term management plan to work on existing business improvements, and also to restructure some of the projects and programs that we had, had. And there were campaigns in-house so that we mobilize all our personnel to make our improvements. And under COVID-19, in each of the businesses, we had to have a very robust restructuring of the businesses and portfolios. And last fiscal year, around the middle of the last fiscal year, there were some areas in which we saw good recoveries in the initiatives and projects that we have been involving and these are reflected in the numbers.

So there were negatives coming from COVID-19, but also strength in the recovery that we are experiencing. And in the pent-up businesses, whether the demand is going to be continuing. That is something that we are monitoring very closely. But on the other hand, we need to look at the fiscal measures taken by different countries. And they are focusing their efforts. So whether they are sustainable or not is something that we want to monitor closely going forward as well.

[Unknown Analyst]

I have two questions. First question. March 23, dividend level has been raised this time. Of course, in non-resources, initiatives structurally improving profitability, that's one factor. But if you look at the resources, of course, there should be some improvement in order to do this dividend.

And iron ore prices originally probably is expected to go below $100, I think, in your estimate. So what sort of changes have you seen in that? And in the future, next few years, how is your prospect going forward? Can you share that with us? That's my first question. So may I ask a second question?

[Unknown Executive]

Yes.

[Unknown Analyst]

The second one is about non-resources, the profitability of the segment. In second and third quarter, the performance has been improving further. But if you look at the resources business, energy price increase, iron ore price increase, and leading to profitability improvement. That's not the case with the non-resources. Because in the Chemicals, if the crude oil prices are increasing, the price increase may improve the profitability to some extent. But at some point in time, you may not be able to pass on that price, crude oil price increased to the finished product price. So is there any signs or changes that you're seeing in the next fiscal year, are you assuming something that might change in those segments?

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you for your questions. First of all, as for iron ore price prospect, with regard to specific levels, we do not disclose them. But in the mid- to long term at the moment, in terms of supply-demand situation, and steel production in China is going to go down to some extent. And the Vale production is going to be revived. And so in terms of supply-demand, it is going to be a bit soft, and weak, mid- to long term. That's our view. But if you look at a short-term basis, price movements may look different. But in the mid- to long term, the prices are going to soften. And that has not changed.

And as for the crude oil related commodities. I think the median level, $70 to $90 is the range that we have as a prospect. And in that context, with regard to lower limit of the dividend, JPY 120 per share is something that we have come up with. But the share buyback that we have been continuing is going to continue. And the share buyback that we're doing, once it is finished, then 1.6 billion shares, excluding the treasury stock, and we have been doing this share buyback, but in JPY 120 per share, JPY 200 billion or less will still be available for dividend payment, and JPY 1.09 trillion is the Core Operating Cash Flow for this fiscal year.

So if you look at all of these, then Energy prices and resources prices compared to the past, if you consider all these, the shareholder return can be sustained, and the policy that is going to be sustainable, can be done in our financial capability.

And if you look at the capital allocation, since we're in the third quarter, it is not the exact analysis, but if you look at Page 8, -- then capital flow allocation on the right, as of April last year, we have updated and that's the prospect that you have seen on this slide. And at the moment, as for investment and loans, [ JPY 1,500 billion ] is existing one. And for the next 3 years, JPY 300 billion worth of new growth investments and loans are expected. And if you can also include JPY 120 per share in dividend, JPY 340 billion is added to the shareholder return. So JPY 640 billion will be allocated as management allocation. That's how we are currently.

And on the other hand, the JPY 2 trillion for [ cash run ] and JPY 1.27 trillion, so there is an upside. And the JPY 650 billion for asset recycling and [ Paiton ] recycling is not taken into account in this number. So there is some allocation. There's a room for allocation as well. So there will be a growth strategy investment that can be done. And also, we can ensure sustainability and the flexibility for shareholder return as well.

And the second question is about the non-resources and signs of changes. In Chemicals, in non-resources segment, once the crude oil prices are up, I think these will be the feedstock for the Chemicals. So the non-resources performance has been improving because of the crude oil price increase. But at some point in time, you may find it difficult to take enough margin because you may not be able to pass that raw material increase, price increase into the price of your product.

Well, from the second quarter to third quarter, we haven't sensed any such signs. But as you said, the sustainability of resource prices. And also there are many theories about energy prices. But how long can we sustain this level? So at some point in time, what you said might happen. But on the other hand, if you look at each segment, each segment is performing well. But food, retail, and raw material price increase, because of the demand recovery slowdown or delayed recovery in demand, we may not have reached a similar recovery capability. But in the Materials, there might be some correction that we might see in Chemicals, and Iron & Steel Products, we may be seeing them. But as a trend, it will peak out and then go back to where they are. I don't think that is what's happening.

[Unknown Analyst]

I'd like to ask one question, please. The revenue from trading. The supply chain is very complicated, and the trading revenue is going up, and that was explained during the presentation. With that, how much of the revenue has increased. And I don't think it can work going forward. But this fiscal year, how much did you see in the upside of the revenue? That is my question.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you very much for the question. We have not been able to do a deep-dive analysis. However, when it comes to Steel Products and also Chemicals, of course, we are working on retail and also trading businesses, especially with steel products, we have a North American business and Gestamp is on the recovery trajectory. And with the Chemicals, methanol business, and also we are also working on [ chlor ] alkaline and salt businesses. But these are the businesses in which contract the total businesses. So I think it's about 50-50 when it comes to the increased revenue.

Sugar and grains, I believe it's approximately half of the increased [ share revenue ]. And of course, the market is strong. And with the inflationary marketing environment, that is becoming the tailwind. Whether it's sustainable or not, as I mentioned earlier, it will depend on the business environment and the situation of the margins. I hope to have your understanding. But the trend is that we hope that we'll be able to sustain it going forward, and we believe that we have a good foundation. And we have been able to polish the functions that we have. The 2, that show the results that we have.

[Unknown Analyst]

I have one additional question just for clarification. As for [ Paiton ] the I think -- I don't think this is included in one of the factors for the revision of the forecast. So in the extraordinary shareholders' meeting, it has been approved. That's what I heard. But what has happened since then? I think this is related to cash allocation that you talked about, and this is also related to JT and periodic profit and loss is affected. So can you update us on this [ Paiton ] issue?

[Unknown Executive]

So the approval from the counterpart has been gained in the shareholders' meeting, but we have to gain approval from the various related parties like condition precedent as condition precedents. So not in this fiscal, but in the early next fiscal year, we are hoping to get into profitability.

And in the performance forecast for this fiscal year, [ Paiton ] is not included either. And in the last fiscal year medium-term management plan, once we come up with a cash allocation, we will take a look at that. I think we can take that into account at that time.

[Unknown Analyst]

I would like to ask one question. Earlier, the CFO talked about the cash flow allocation in detail, including the possibilities for the future. For loans and investments, the budget achievement, I think we have come halfway, and I believe that the outlook is quite slow. But with the management allocation, JPY 300 billion has been allocated. I think that was explanation given. Towards the next fiscal year, in the long list, the budget and also the cash-in, whether it's going to go up, do you think there is room for increases in this area? That is my question.

And in the strategic focus areas, -- how much room are there for accumulating projects further? That is my question.

[Unknown Executive]

As for the situation investment in December, in the ESG Day, we explained that Energy Solutions is the area in which we are working with different initiatives. And Healthcare, Nutrition, is another area in which we are seeing accumulation of projects. And in the fourth quarter, onwards, there will be projects that are going to show cash-outs. So the number of projects under deliberation is increasing in that sense. And there are some very positive proactive areas that we can work on that is becoming much more clear. Therefore, going forward, we hope that we will explore more opportunities so that we can work on different and various projects. Because this is our third quarter financial results session, we haven't been able to have sessions to discuss the initiatives, but we will be working on formulation of the new management plan going forward. So I think we will be able to update you on some of the project going forward. Did that answer your question?

[Unknown Analyst]

I have one question on the individual factors. By segment, it's about Mineral & Metal Resources and coal business in Australia, JPY 22.5 billion profit was produced in 3 months of third quarter. Is it because of the price increase simply? Or was there any special factor? And in the fourth quarter and next fiscal year, what is the current situation? And what is the direction that we can expect? Can you give us any clues?

[Unknown Executive]

The Australian coal business, JPY 22.5 billion. The coking coal prices are plateauing, and that is one -- that is a factor. And in terms of operation, there is no issue. So that's exactly what's happening. So for the next fiscal year, you start from this for your forecast or should we forecast your prospects starting from this level for the next fiscal year.

For the coking coal price for the short term is not sustainable. That's what we believe. And in the fourth quarter and in the next fiscal year, when we make plans, we have to be closely watching the prices. But for the fourth quarter and most recent prices, we are more conservative than the market prices, obviously.