Itochu Corp

TSE:8001

Earnings Call Analysis

Upward Revision in Net Profit Guidance

In the face of economic uncertainties, a certain company has demonstrated resilience, recording a first-half net profit of JPY 412.9 billion, which is over 50% of the initial annual forecast. This performance led to an upward revision of the annual net profit forecast to JPY 800 billion, signifying the potential for a third consecutive year of substantial profitability. Robust segment performance, particularly in ICT, Financial Business, and Food, coupled with sound financial actions like a JPY 75 billion share buyback, aim to achieve a total return ratio of 40%. Challenges such as lower commodity prices, higher interest rates, and a weaker yen were navigated with strategic business adjustments. Shareholder equity reached a historic JPY 5.2 trillion, bolstering the company's strong financial footing.

FamilyMart and 'The 8th' Segment Post Positive Results

Despite increased costs from external environmental shifts and digital enhancements intended to solidify its business foundation, FamilyMart, under 'The 8th' segment, witnessed income growth. This was attributed to improved daily sales, heightened marginal profit ratios, and successful marketing strategies, such as the promotional expansion of the private brand 'Famimaru'.

Foods Segment Sees Profit Uplift

The Foods segment showed a rise in profits, overcoming the impact of exiting the U.S. business at HyLife. This was possible through footfall recovery, better sales pricing in food distribution, notably NIPPON ACCESS, and solid performance in food trade and grain-related activities, particularly in North America.

Dole and Energy & Chemicals Outperform; Machinery Rebounds

Dole's performance matched expectations, while the Energy & Chemicals segment enjoyed an uptick in profit, propelled by robust operating company results, healthy domestic electricity trading, and an extraordinary gain related to the revaluation of a lithium-ion battery enterprise. Machinery, despite a year-over-year decline attributed to the absence of prior year's singular gains, experienced core profit growth owing to the resolution of semiconductor shortages and strong North American construction machinery performance, including MULTIQUIP.

Challenges in Metals & Minerals, General Products & Realty

Metals & Minerals profits shrank due to a downturn in coal and iron ore market prices. Simultaneously, General Products & Realty faced sluggish earnings, hit by a weak pulp market and patchy sales in the European pulp manufacturing sector. Despite solid real estate transactions in Japan, the segment's profits dipped, missing the gains from the prior year's asset sales.

Mixed Trend in Core Profit, Notable Cash Flow Achievement

Core profit for the first half of FY 24, an indicator of actual earnings stripping one-time events, came at approximately JPY 383.5 billion. Though this was lower by JPY 46.5 billion compared to the previous high, the decline was not uniform across sectors. Resources saw a decrease, while non-resource segments recorded an increase in earnings. The report highlighted an impressive operating cash flow, marking the second highest historically at JPY 469.2 billion, bolstered by strong segment performances and dividends from equity method investments.

Upward Adjustment in Net Profit Forecast, Stable Financial Position

The organization has lifted its consolidated net profit projection by JPY 20 billion to JPY 800 billion from the initial JPY 780 billion forecast. This came after a detailed review of the business segments, leading to a reduced loss buffer from JPY 50 billion to JPY 30 billion due to a lack of major loss concerns. Shareholders' equity hit an all-time high of JPY 5.2 trillion, maintaining a robust financial base, while the net debt to equity ratio stayed relatively constant from the end of the last fiscal year.

Cautious Assumptions Amid Currency and Commodity Price Fluctuations

With the yen weakening against the U.S. dollar more than anticipated, the average rate assumption was revised from JPY 130 to JPY 140. U.S. interest rates were increased by 0.5 percentage points to 5.5% considering continued monetary tightening. Crude oil assumptions were modified upwards to USD 84 per barrel, reflecting market stability provided by producer supply constraints. Conservative views dominate the forecast, especially with iron ore pricing, in anticipation of changes in the business environment in the latter half of the fiscal year.

Enhanced Shareholder Returns and Consistent Dividend Growth

In light of the revised profit forecast, an additional share buy-back program was announced, proposing the repurchase of shares worth JPY 75 billion, elevating the total buyback allocation to JPY 100 billion. Moreover, dividends have been raised by JPY 20 year-over-year to JPY 160 per share, reflecting a commitment to deliver substantial shareholder returns pegged to profitability and cash flow statuses.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Keita Ishii, executive]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Ishii, President of ITOCHU Corporation. Thank you for joining us today.

I would like to give you an overview of the business results for the first half of our fiscal year ending 2024. Please refer to the business results summary. FYE 2024 first half document published on 6th of November.

First, please turn to Page 2, which gives you the summary of the financial results for the first half of the financial year '24. Consolidated net profit for the first half was JPY 412.9 billion, a steady progress of more than 50% against the initial forecast of JPY 780 billion at the beginning of the term. There were no significant extraordinary gains in the second quarter. And as a result of a steady accumulation of profits, core profit amounted to approximately JPY 383.5 billion, second only to the record high of the previous year.

Despite the impact of lower market prices and higher interest rates, The 8th, Machinery, Food and ICT and Financial Business companies all posted year-on-year increases in profits and steadily grew core profit.

As shown in the right-hand column, based on the solid performance of the first half of the year, we have now revised our annual forecast for the current financial year. The final year of our medium-term management plan, Brand-new Deal 2023, upwards to JPY 800 billion. By achieving JPY 800 billion in consolidated net profit level for the third consecutive year, we hope to demonstrate that we have established a stage where our profit can reach JPY 800 billion.

Next, please turn to Page 3. This shows the first half results by segment. By segment, 4 companies: ICT and Financial Business, The 8th, Food and Energy & Chemicals recorded Y-o-Y increases in profit. Firstly, in ICT and Financial Business, CTC performed well, thanks to the resolution of delivery delays caused by the shortage of semiconductors and continued firm digitalization needs.

In addition, the Hoken No Madoguchi Group improved its ability to attract customers, thanks to recovery in footfall, careful follow up with customers and the start of new TV commercials. In addition, there was an improvement in valuation gains and losses from funds, which had performed poorly in the previous year, and extraordinary gain on the sale of overseas retail finance business resulting in higher profits.

Looking at The 8th, despite an increase in various costs due to changes in the external environment at FamilyMart and the implementation of digital measures to strengthen business base going forward, income increased due to an improvement in the daily sales and the marginal profit ratio through enhanced product quality and the sales promotion, including sales expansion of a private brand, “Famimaru” and improved shop impairments.

Foods recorded an increase in profit despite the loss of withdrawal from the U.S. business at HyLife, thanks to footfall recovery and increased transactions due to higher sales prices in food distribution-related businesses, such as NIPPON ACCESS as well as solid growth in food trade and the grain-related businesses in North America.

Dole performed well in line with our initial expectations. Energy & Chemicals posted an increase in profit. Despite an absence of the strong energy trade and chemical trade of the previous year, thanks to strong operating company earnings and solid domestic electricity trading, as well as extraordinary gain from the revaluation of the lithium-ion battery company.

The Y-o-Y decline in the Machinery business was due to the absence of the large one-off gains recorded in the previous year, but core profit was higher. In addition to the overall good performance of automotive-related businesses as the effects of the semiconductor shortage were largely resolved, the North American construction machinery business including MULTIQUIP also recorded an increase in profit. And the Hitachi Construction Machinery, which started to be consolidated from the third quarter of the previous year also performed strongly, and the profit is steadily increasing.

Textiles remained largely flat despite the withdrawal from the Chinese apparel business due to asset recycling, as retail market conditions rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic and many of the brands we handle also saw an increase in sales due to inbound tourism demand.

On the other hand, the Metals & Minerals, General Products & Realty and Others segments reported lower profits mainly due to the impact of lower commodity prices. In Metals & Minerals, profit declined year-on-year due to lower market prices for coal and iron ore, which had trended high in the previous year despite positive overseas profit due to the weak yen.

In General Products & Realty, the European pulp manufacturing business was sluggish due to hub market prices and weak sales. Although real estate transactions in Japan was solid, the segment saw a decline in profits due to lower profits in the domestic and North American construction material-related businesses, which had performed well in the previous year and the absence of the previous year's extraordinary gains, including the sales of overseas real estate properties.

In the other segments, CITIC performed well, particularly in the Comprehensive Financial Services segment, but profit declined due to the absence of one large off gain on the revaluation of the securities business in the previous year, and the higher interest expenses due to rising U.S. dollar interest rates and the slump in CPP due to the decline in the pork market.

Next, please turn to Page 4. First half FY '24 results for core profit is shown on this page. Core profit, the actual value of earnings, excluding one-off gains and losses were approximately JPY 383.5 billion, a decrease of JPY 46.5 billion from the previous year when they were at a record high.

Excluding the effects of lower commodity prices, higher interest rates and weaker yen, the net change in profit was a decrease of JPY 12 billion. But the trend deferred by sector with a decrease of JPY 12.5 billion in the resource sector and an increase in JPY 4.5 billion in the non-resource sector.

In the non-resource sector, the General Products & Realty, which was affected by the decline in pulp market and Energy & Chemicals, which was affected by the absence of the -- a stronger trade business in the previous year recorded a decline in profit, while the rest of the segments recorded an increase.

As explained in the first half results by segment, we have been able to steadily increase profits in the non-resource sectors, which are more resilient to economic fluctuations even in an uncertain business environment, mainly in Food, The 8th, ICT and Financial Business and Machinery.

Next, please skip to Page 8. Please look at the cash flow on this page. Operating cash flow was JPY 469.2 billion, the second highest in our history due to strong operating revenues in The 8th, General Products & Realty and Food companies as well as dividend income from equity method investments in Metals & Minerals.

Core operating cash flow amounted to JPY 375 billion, including higher interest payments due to higher interest rates and tax payments. Net investment cash flow was an outflow of JPY 341 billion, mainly due to the recently announced tender offer to CTC.

Please turn to Page 9 for our financial position. Shareholders' equity reached a record high of JPY 5.2 trillion, thanks to steady accumulation of profits and weaker yen with a NET DER of 0.5x, which is more or less flat from end of last fiscal year. The increase in shareholders' equity exceeded the increase of interest-bearing debt due to the additional acquisition of CTC and other factors, and we continue to maintain a solid financial base.

Now I will turn to the outlook for the full year, and please turn back to Page 5. We have revised our consolidated net profit forecast upward by JPY 20 billion to JPY 800 billion compared to our initial forecast of JPY 780 billion.

The forecast by segment is shown on this page. We have revised upward forecast by JPY 10 billion and JPY 9 billion, respectively. For machinery, where automotive-related construction machinery and the power generation in North America performing well and for FamilyMart related, The 8th, which has already achieved the initial full year forecast in the first half of the year.

We revised General Products & Realty down by JPY 8 billion because of its weak performance during first half due to the slump in the pulp market. In the Others segment, which includes CPP, we have made a JPY 9 billion upward revision, factoring in the negative impact of the decline in the pork market in CPP and adding JPY 20 billion increase from the reduction of the buffer. And outside of the segments that I've just mentioned, there is no change from the initial forecast.

Next, I would like to explain about the overall outlook of the full year. Please turn to Page 6. The initial forecast of JPY 780 billion includes loss buffer of JPY 50 billion. And the initial forecast, excluding the buffer was JPY 830 billion. The revised forecast, which takes into account the negative impact of lower market prices for the impact of yen depreciation and an increase in core profit in non-resource sectors remains unchanged at JPY 830 billion before the buffer.

As the segments have already passed for FY '24, the situation of each business has been reviewed in detail and conservatively. And there are no specific loss concerns at present. And the loss buffer of JPY 50 billion set at the beginning of the period has been reduced by JPY 20 billion, and the full year forecast has been revised upwards from JPY 780 billion to JPY 800 billion.

Please turn to Page 10 for the assumptions behind this upward revision. The yen has weakened against the U.S. dollar more than expected. And the assumption for the average rate of the period has been changed from JPY 130 to JPY 140 and the U.S. interest rate was increased by 0.5 percentage points to 5.5%, taking into account the situation of persistent monetary tightening in the U.S. and Europe.

The crude oil price has remained firm, supported by supply restraint in major oil-producing countries. And we revised our initial assumption of $75 upwards to USD 84. Although we cannot disclose the iron ore price due to the cooperation agreement, we are taking a conservative view of the main assumptions based on the current market conditions, with an eye on changes in the business environment in the second half.

Finally, I would like to talk about shareholder returns. In the short-term management plan for FY '24 announced on 9th of May, we stated that additional shareholder returns would be made targeting a 40% total return ratio in the event of an upward revision during the year. Based on the upward revision of consolidated net profit forecast of JPY 800 billion, the company has decided to buy back an additional JPY 75 billion of its own shares.

Combined with the JPY 25 billion already executed in the first half, this brings the total amount to JPY 100 billion, one of the highest on record, and the dividend will be JPY 160, an increase of JPY 20 Y-o-Y as planned. Future returns will continue to be looked at as needed based on the status of profit and cash.

The current year is the final year of the medium-term management plan, brand-new deal 2023. The company has been steadily building up profit in several stages, and we believe that by achieving consolidated net profit of JPY 800 billion in the third consecutive year following JPY 820.3 billion in FY '22, JPY 800.5 billion in FY '23, we have established the JPY 800 billion profit stage. The company is also working to ensure that it does not suffer from unexpected large losses.

In order to avoid such losses, we will manage in the second half with eye to minimizing losses by detecting signs of deterioration and latent factors at an early stage so we can respond proactively. At the same time, we will steadily implement measures to further growth for the next fiscal year and beyond, including major investments that have been announced.

That is all for me. Thank you very much for your kind attention.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]