Yamaha Corp

TSE:7951

Earnings Call Transcript 2020-Q3

[Satoshi Yamahata, executive]

I'd like to start the presentation on the third quarter of FY March 2020 using the PowerPoint slides. Please refer to Page 1.

Here are the results of the first 9 month. The strong sales of musical instruments continued, but the impact of exchange rates and the sluggish market for industrial machinery and components resulted in a year-on-year decline in the revenue and profit. The revenue was JPY 322.6 billion, which was down 2.7% year-on-year. The core operating profit was JPY 42.4 billion, down 5.5%, likewise. And the core operating profit ratio was 13.1%, down 0.4 percentage point.

As for the full year outlook, we revised it downward, taking into account the performance over the first 9 month and the uncertainties in the operating environment, including the impact of a new coronavirus outbreak in China. We are now expecting the revenue to be JPY 425 billion, which is down 2.2% year-on-year; the core operating profit to be JPY 50 billion, down 5.2%; and the core operating profit ratio to be 11.8%, down 0.3 percentage point.

Next, please turn to Page 3. Here is the summary of the first 9 month, which I already mentioned. As you can see, both the revenue and profits declined year-on-year. The net profit was JPY 32.7 billion, which was a decline of JPY 0.9 billion year-on-year. The exchange rates were as shown here.

Moving on to Page 4. Here's the GAAP analysis of the core operating profit, which was JPY 42.4 billion and lower by JPY 2.5 billion than the previous year. The impact of the exchange rates was the greatest at JPY 5.2 billion. We tried to offset this impact with the cost reduction as well as the sales increase and model mix, but due to the JPY 2.5 billion negative growth of IMC business and others, we resulted in overall decline of the profit.

Page 5 shows the performance by business segments. Musical instruments revenue was JPY 213.3 billion, the core operating profit was JPY 34.8 billion and the core operating profit ratio was 16.3%. Despite the exchange rate impact shown on the right, the business achieved increase in both the revenue and profit, and the profit ratio improved 0.5 percentage points.

Audio equipment had a very tough recent quarter. The revenue was JPY 86.2 billion, the core operating profit was JPY 7.1 billion and the core operating profit ratio was 8.3%, suffering the decline in both the revenue and profit. The profit ratio also dropped 0.7 percentage point. IMC business and others also faced a severe decline in both the revenue and profit. The revenue was JPY 23.1 billion, the core operating profit was JPY 0.5 billion and the core operating profit ratio was 2%.

Moving on to Page 6. Here is the full year outlook. As I mentioned earlier, we are anticipating decline in both the revenue and profits. The net profit is expected to be JPY 39.5 billion, which will be down JPY 0.8 billion or 2.1% year-on-year. As for the exchange rates, please refer to the bottom half of the slide.

The next is Page 7. Likewise, here's the GAAP analysis of the full year core operating profit, and the top half shows the factors contributing to the profit decline of JPY 2.7 billion year-on-year. The impact of exchange rates will be JPY 6.6 billion. We have been trying to offset the impact with the cost reduction as well as the sales increase and model mix, but we could not offset it completely due to the decline of the IMC business and others.

Therefore, the profit is likely to be JPY 50 billion, which is JPY 2.7 billion lower than the previous year. Compared against the previous projection of JPY 53 billion, the current outlook is lower by JPY 3 billion, mainly due to the sales that turned out to be lower than the expectation. The sales decrease impact is estimated to be JPY 4.9 billion. We're trying to offset this with SG&A cost decrease, but it will not be enough, so the full year profit is now likely to be JPY 3 billion lower than the previous projection.

Moving on to Page 8. Here is the outlook by business segments. With regards to musical instruments, the revenue will drop JPY 2 billion year-on-year. This is including the estimated impact of the new coronavirus outbreak in China in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, we will not be able to absorb all the exchange rate impact, so the musical instruments' revenue is expected to decrease a little, but the profit is expected to increase from the previous year. Therefore, the revenue will be JPY 277.5 billion, the core operating profit will be JPY 41.5 billion and the core operating profit ratio would be 15%, which is an improvement of 0.4 percentage point.

As for the audio equipment, even though we're still determined to recover during the fourth quarter, we will not be able to absorb all the exchange rate impact. Therefore, we are projecting decrease in both the revenue and profit year-on-year. The revenue will be JPY 116.5 billion, the core operating profit would be JPY 8.5 billion and the core operating profit ratio would be 7.3%, which is a drop of 0.7 percentage point.

Regarding IMC business and others. The fourth quarter will be continually tough, but the previous year's fourth quarter was not so good either. In any case, we are anticipating a big drop in both the revenue and profit, and the core operating profit will be 0.

Next, please turn to Page 10. From here on, I'd like to give you the details of each business segment. As for the musical instruments, during the first 9 month, the sales were strong in all the categories, exceeding the previous year's figures. The piano sales were robust namely with the double-digit growth in China and the emerging markets. The sales of digital musical instruments and wind instruments were good, except for the sluggish Japan. The guitar sales increased year-on-year in all the regions and sustained a double-digit growth overall.

In China, the sales of all the products increased and maintained a double-digit growth of 11%. In Europe, North America and emerging markets, the sales remained robust. In Japan, the sales declined year-on-year due to the prolonged impact of the consumption tax hike.

As for the full year outlook, all the product categories are expected to grow. The guitars are expected to achieve a double-digit growth, and the pianos and the digital pianos are also expected to grow steadily. In China, the new coronavirus outbreak is casting uncertainties in the fourth quarter. But basically, with the exception of Japan, the sales are expected to be robust in North America, Europe and emerging markets.

Please look at the chart on the left for the revenue. In the first 9 month, on a local currency basis, discounting the impact of exchange rates, the musical instruments achieved 4% growth year-on-year. However, since we may suffer a little decline in the fourth quarter due to the virus in China, we are forecasting 3% growth for the full year.

Moving on to Page 11. Here's the revenue breakdown by major product categories. The pianos achieved 7% growth in the first 9 month and are expected to achieve 5% growth in the full year. Likewise, the digital musical instruments' growth was 6% in the first 9 month and will be 4% in the full year. The wind instruments were rather sluggish in Japan, so it was flat year-on-year in the first 9 month and expected to be flat in the full year. The strings and percussion instruments achieved 10% growth in the first 9 month and are expected to achieve 9% growth in the full year. Actually, the guitars are doing very well. But some other instruments were underperforming, so the category growth is expected to be 9%, yet the guitar alone is achieving double-digit growth.

Next, on Page 12, we are showing the revenue breakdown by each region. We struggled in Japan, and the third quarter sales declined 13% year-on-year. With that impact, the full year is expected to be 5% down.

North America has been doing well and achieved 5% growth in the first 9 month and 4% growth for the full year. In Europe, 6% growth for the first 9 month and 4% for the full year. China has been doing very well during the first 9 month and achieved 11% growth. But the fourth quarter is likely to remain flat year-on-year, so the full year is expected to be 9%. Other emerging markets achieved 6% growth for the first 9 month and forecasted with 5% growth for the full year.

Moving on to Page 13. I'd like to talk about the audio equipment business. During the first 9 month, although the AV product sales declined year-on-year, the PA equipment sales remained robust. As for the AV products, the sales of receivers were lower than the previous year because the global market has been shrinking further.

As for the PA equipment, the sales of new products, including the speakers and the installation services that we provide in Japan were performing well. In all the regions, we continue to achieve robust sales, exceeding the previous year. The ICT devices enjoyed robust sales of routers, and the unified communication products saw a decline of OEM sales in China, which was in line with our expectation.

Regarding the full year forecast, PA is expected to grow, but AV is likely to be severe. The AV product sales will decline year-on-year due to the downturn of receivers. The PA equipment sales would grow year-on-year due to the contribution of new products and the steady performance of music production and installation services. ICT device sales are expected to decline, even though the router sales are recovering because of further drop of the OEM sales of unified communication products.

Please refer to the figures. The revenue for the first 9 month was 1% lower than the previous year, and the full year is expected to be flat.

Next, please turn to Page 14. Here is the revenue breakdown by major product categories. The sales of struggling AV products in the first 9 month was 7% lower than the previous year, and it is expected to be 6% lower in the full year. The PA equipment growth is 4% for both the first 9 month and the full year. As for ICT devices, please look at the figures in blue, which indicate the sales of Yamaha brand, excluding OEM sales. Although we enjoyed a recovery in the third quarter, the sales for the first 9 month was a negative growth of 12% year-on-year, and it will still be a negative growth of 4% for the full year.

The next page shows a breakdown by regions. Japan has been doing very well, boosted by the growing installation services. And sales in the first 9 month were 8% higher than the previous year, and it is expected to be 10% higher in the full year. In North America, especially AV products, has been sluggish. So the first 9 month was 7% lower, and the full year will be 4% lower than the previous year.

In Europe, both the first 9 month and the full year are achieving 1% growth year-on-year. In China, excluding the sales of OEM products, we are expecting a flat growth year-on-year. The other emerging markets are also struggling with the AV products. Therefore, both the first 9 month and the full year would be 1% down year-on-year.

The final segment is the industrial machinery and components business and others. In the first 9 month, the market conditions for the factory automation equipment did not recover, and the sales were much lower than the previous year when we enjoyed the special demand. Likewise, for the full year, we have no prospect for the FA market recovery, so the sales would drop sharply year-on-year. Yet the electronic devices are likely to grow year-on-year with the recovery of amusement equipment devices. The revenue for the first 9 month was 17% lower than the previous year, and the full year revenue is expected to be 10% lower. The full year core operating profit is expected to be 0, as I mentioned earlier.

As for the other financial figures, please refer to the balance sheet on Page 18. The total assets as of the end of December 2019 was JPY 527.7 billion, and the total equity equivalent to the net assets was JPY 366.8 billion. Most of the changes from the balance at the end of March 2019 can be attributed to seasonality. But one thing I should explain is the increase of JPY 7.8 billion in total equity. We booked a net profit of JPY 32.7 billion and paid out a dividend and repurchased our shares, so the net balance was an increase of JPY 7.8 billion.

At the end of March 2020, the total assets are expected to be JPY 521.1 billion, and the total equity will be JPY 365.1 billion. There would be no particular changes to mention.

Regarding the capital expenditure, the full year forecast is JPY 20 billion. It will be higher than the previous year, but it will be slightly lower than the previous projection of JPY 22 billion. It is because the production capacity enhancement in China has been doing -- and some of them will be postponed to the next fiscal year, so we reduced JPY 2 billion. The R&D expenses are forecasted to be JPY 25 billion, which is also slightly lower than the previous projection.

It was a quick overview, but that's all for me. Thank you very much.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]