Olympus Corp

TSE:7733

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q4

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Good afternoon, good morning. I am CEO Takeuchi. Thank you very much for joining us today for our financial results briefing. Today, first of all, I would like to start by describing our management policy for this fiscal year. After that, CFO, Takeda, will take us through a review of the financial results for '22 and full year forecast for FY '23. Then COO, Nacho Abia, will briefly explain the key priorities for medical business.

First of all, before I go into management policy, I would like to review the corporate transformation over the past 3 years since I became CEO. On this slide, you can see the challenges facing Olympus that were announced during the transformation Olympus corporate transformation plan in January 2019, along with the reform plans to address these challenges and expected outcomes. At that time, Olympus considerably behind global medtech companies. And in terms of the efficiency and profitability as well as global governance and management foundations, we were behind. So we had the issue with the speed at which we can adopt to external environment as well. That's why we have decided to adopt the Transform Olympus plan.

There are 5 measures under this plan. And by implementing these and having the management foundations and showing adequate profitability, we can attain sustainable growth and contribute to the health of people around the world. Our aim was to pursue a fundamental corporate transformation and to build management foundations and organizations associated with the speed and drive in order to acquire the ability to take action, which is the most important factor in executing corporate strategy that awaits us.

Through Transform Olympus, we unveiled our corporate strategy in November '19 -- 2019, as a medium-term to long-term strategy to achieve sustainable growth while establishing management foundations, we have set the strategic aspiration to develop into a global leading medtech company that delivers benefits to all stakeholders through innovative value and contribute to the health of people around the world. In keeping with this thinking, we declared that we would achieve an annual revenue growth of 5% to 6%, combined with operating margin of over 20% and that we would achieve sustainable growth by securing a leading position in the therapeutic areas in which we are forecast.

To realize these goals, we identified 4 key components for achieving business growth and improving profitability and the 4 initiatives are aimed at enhancing organizational functions. The goals set in our corporate strategy seemed ambitious to many stakeholders at that time. But in order to drastically transform employee mindsets and our corporate culture without being bound by the fixed ideas that have long existed at Olympus and to bring about the full potential of Olympus. On a group-wide basis, we clarified the areas that we needed to focus and the necessary measures.

After the announcement of the corporate strategy, we -- the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic developed. But seeing the demand for our products and solutions, as constant in the mid to long term, we saw this as a good opportunity to accelerate our transformation into a truly global medtech company towards achieving sustainable growth. And we followed through on all of these various measures based on our corporate strategy. I would also like to review our business performance.

In terms of revenue, thanks to the significant growth of 19% achieved during FY '22, CAGR over the past 2 years, exceeded 7%. In our corporate strategy, we also set targets for CAGR over the 3-year period from FY '21 to FY '23, 6% for ESD and 8% for TSD, respectively. Over the past 2 years, they both achieved a CAGR of 7%. And despite the COVID-19 pandemic, we have been supported by solid demand and made progress in line with these goals, thanks to recovery and remarkable growth. In addition, adjusted operating margin, which had been 9.2% as of FY '19, when our transformation began has improved year after year. In fiscal 2022, it improved by more than 10 percentage points to 19.3%, making significant progress towards our financial guidance of over 20% in adjusted operating margin.

Since the announcement of Transform Olympus in 2019, we have implemented a number of reforms from the business portfolio to governance and corporate culture without ever easing our grip. In the course of driving the corporate transformation, we believe we are steadily building a management foundation to transform into a global medtech company.

Now I would like to explain our management policy for FY 2023. FY 2023 is positioned as an important year in terms of management. First, we aim to achieve the financial targets for FY '23 that we have such as a milestone by enhancing business growth and efficiency. In the recent management environment with uncertainty growing day by day, I have a sense that we need to take a medium- to long-term approach and implement management based on flexible decision-making that reflects conditions. As I mentioned earlier, when reviewing our past performance, through the efforts we have made to date, employees have begun to think of corporate transformation as their own matter and the mindset of each person has shifted considerably while implementing the transformation. Even in the midst of uncertainty, I believe it is fully possible to achieve our goals by having the executive team lead the company overall with individual employees responding with flexibility and speed through their abilities to adapt and drive change.

On Investor Day in December 2021, I mentioned that it is important to focus on the series of care paths patients experience from prevention to screening, diagnosis, treatment and recovery while supporting and improving appropriate care for each patient and that we would strengthen the provision of solutions aimed at this pathways. In line with the strategy shown on Investor Day, we focus on diseases where we can demonstrate our capabilities to the fullest, namely GI, neurology and respiratory and the new investments we make will lead to the creation of innovation and value that will improve the standards of care. However, we are also cognizant that there are still some challenges in our organizational foundations on the way to achieving sustainable growth as a global medtech company.

As you are aware, Olympus was founded with the aim of achieving domestic production of microscopes. And we are a company that has developed by repurposing those optical technologies for cameras and endoscopic products and exporting products developed in Japan to the world. Although medical business accounts for more than 85% of total sales today, our origin set us apart from those of a pure medtech company. Due to the technology-oriented business that has been formed over 100 years since our founding and the operating model optimized for each region and company, there are challenges such as globally linked product development and quality assurance and regulatory affairs.

We will focus on efforts to transform these into systems and operations suitable for a global medtech company. Our improvements to the executive officer structure from April were also in line with this purpose. And I believe it is essential for us to strengthen our global organizational structure and cross-functional coordination to a greater extent than before. Additionally, as a global medtech company, in addition to focusing on providing high value to patients, we will also help solve social issues identified as materiality and continue to realize a sustainable society.

FY 2023 is positioned as a milestone in the financial guidance of our corporate strategy, we'll make a united company-wide effort to achieve an adjusted operating margin of over 20%. We have not seen revenue growths as initially expected over the 2 years since our corporate strategy was announced due to the spread of COVID-19. However, revenue has steadily recovered and achieved significant growth in FY 2022. We expect to see high growth in FY 2023 as well. And the 3-year CAGR using fiscal 2022 as a starting point is expected to exceed 8%.

Lastly, I would like to summarize my thoughts regarding the positioning of this fiscal year once more. Since the announcement of Transform Olympus, we have implemented a number of measures with a sense of speed and continue to promote corporate transformation. And I believe that a company-wide transformation culture has taken root as a result. Given this, for fiscal 2023, we aim to achieve an adjusted operating margin of over 20% as a milestone and also make it a year in which we shift from a transformation phase to a growth phase.

Of course, going forward, we continue with the initiatives undertaken in Transform Olympus, including the pursuit of efficiency, globalization of functions and development of a healthy corporate culture. But by steering towards growth, we will continually improve revenue and profitability and contribute to our ultimate goals as our purpose, making people's lives healthier, safer and more fulfilling.

Next, our CFO, Chikashi Takeda, will provide a review of the financial results for FY 2022 and our full year forecast for FY 2023.

[Chikashi Takeda, executive]

Hello, everyone. I am Takeda, CFO. I would like to provide a review of our consolidated financial results for FY '22 and talk about the full year forecast for FY '23. Please turn to Page 15. This slide highlights our fourth quarter and full year financial results for fiscal year 2022. Revenue increased 10% in the fourth quarter and 19% for the full year. Both Medical and Scientific Solutions businesses achieved record highs. Operating profit for the fourth quarter and full year hit record highs in terms of both amount and ratio, beating our forecast. Operating margin was 18.8% in the fourth quarter and 17.7% for the full year. Adjusted operating margin stood at 19.3% for the full year. This marks steady progress towards achieving our target adjusted operating margin of over 20%. We also achieved record highs for both profit and EPS. Profit was JPY 115.7 billion and EPS was JPY 70.

Next, our full year forecast for FY '23. This is an important year for us to achieve the milestone laid out in our corporate strategy. We expect revenue to increase 11% year-on-year to JPY 968 billion, driven by business growth in medical and SSD. We expect to achieve the target adjusted operating margin of over 20% set out in our corporate strategy. We also expect to generate a record JPY 154 billion in profit, with EPS of JPY 121, up 34% year-on-year. Regarding dividends for fiscal year '23, we plan to pay a dividend of JPY 16 per share, up JPY 2 from the previous year in light of financial forecasts under our policy of stable and ongoing dividend increase.

I will now explain the consolidated financial results and provide a business review for fiscal '22. First, overall consolidated financial results, consolidated full year revenue amounted to JPY 868.9 billion, 19% growth year-on-year, with record revenues in both Medical and SSD. Even in comparison to FY 2020, revenue was 15% higher, well above the pre-pandemic level. The 2 year CAGR from fiscal 2020 exceeded 7%. Global supply chain disruptions for semiconductors and other components, the war in Ukraine and the resurgence of COVID-19 in China have affected this difficult business environment. Nevertheless, each of our global employees remained focused on each role and meeting the expectations of all stakeholders, including patients and health care providers worked hard to minimize the impact of those factors and achieved full year forecast announced back in February.

Gross profit was JPY 571.7 billion, with gross margin improving 2.9 percentage points driven by higher revenue and improved factory operation utilization also continuing to higher gross margin was approximately JPY 4.2 billion reversal of provision for the market response to duodenoscopes recorded in fiscal 2020 and an approximately JPY 2.7 billion reversal of a provision related to the voluntary recall of bronchoscopes recorded in FY '21 as well as the absence of recall costs for endoscopic and endotherapy products in FY '21. SG&A expenses were JPY 405.4 billion. And SG&A ratio improving 2.2 percentage points due in part to relaxation of restrictions on activities, strengthening of our operational infrastructure and the measures to improve profitability. SG&A expenses increased in amount, but the ratio to revenue improved as a result of strict control of the costs.

In other income and expenses, a loss of JPY 12.4 billion was posted. Other income included an approximately JPY 3.6 billion reversal for provision related to indirect taxes of consolidated subsidiary and an approximately JPY 2.8 billion gain on phased acquisition of Medi-Tate, while other expenses included approximately JPY 9.4 billion for the Transform Olympus related expenses and an approximately JPY 9.4 billion for the reorganization of SSD. Operating profit was JPY 153.9 billion, with operating margin significantly improving 6.5 percentage points to 17.7%. We set a target for adjusted operating margin, which excludes other income and expenses in the corporate strategy announced in 2019.

Please note that with adjusted operating margin of 19.3%, we have made steady progress towards over 20% in fiscal '23. Profit was a record JPY 115.7 billion, an increase of JPY 102.8 billion year-on-year. In fiscal '21, there was a loss associated with the transfer of the Imaging business, but this year marked a dramatic improvement. EPS also achieved a record high of JPY 90. We plan to pay a year-end dividend of JPY 14 for fiscal year '22, the same amount as announced in February.

Now we will look at the details about each business segment. First, is the Endoscopic Solutions business, revenue amounted to JPY 461.5 billion, up 17%. Operating profit was JPY 133.2 billion, with an operating margin of 28.9%. Gross profit rose due to a significant jump in revenue combined with an approximately JPY 4.2 billion, reversal of provision for the market response to duodenoscopes. While SG&A expenses rose due to relaxation of restrictions and activities, strengthening of our operational infrastructure and the measures to improve profitability. Profit increased significantly in fiscal year 2022 with the absence of costs associated with the career support for the external opportunity program, which were incurred in FY '21.

I will now give a full year review each subsegment. We saw positive growth across all subsegments, thanks to a recovery from COVID-19 and sales expansion of our products. In GI endoscope, all regions grew, particularly in North America and Europe, driven by sales expansion of EVIS X1 series and the previous-generation endoscopes. Also note that the sales contribution of EVIS X1 series has risen and now accounts for over 10% in the GI endoscope subsegment. The surgical endoscope sales grew, in particular, strong performance in North America and Europe, thanks to strong sales of VISERA ELITE II, surgical endoscopic system. In medical service, steady growth in all regions due to stable revenue stream based on service contracts, including maintenance service and an increase in new accounts and repair service volume.

Next is the Therapeutic Solutions division. Revenue amounted to JPY 275.6 billion, up 19%. Operating profit was JPY 60.8 billion with an operating margin of 22.9%. There was a considerable increase in gross profit due to a significant increase in revenue and approximately JPY 2.7 billion reversal of provision related to voluntary recall of bronchoscopes and so forth. Also contributing to high gross margin was the absence of recall costs of bronchoscopes and endotherapy products posted in FY '21, while SG&A expenses rose profit increased significantly in FY '22 with the absence of costs associated with the career support for external opportunity program, which were incurred in '21.

I will now give a full year review of each subsegment. We saw positive growth across all subsegments, thanks to recovery of procedure volume and the sales expansion of our products. In comparison to FY '20, it was an increase of 9% on a marginal basis, managerial basis for your reference, which was above the pre-pandemic level. In GI endoscopy, sales grew in all regions and the product categories based on number of procedures recovering. In particular, strong performance in Europe and North America, notable momentum in sampling, ERCP and ESD/EMR products.

In urology, a strong performance in North America and Europe, led by resection electrodes for BPH and SOLTIVE SuperPulsed Laser System for stone lithotripsy. In respiratory, solid growth centered on North America and Europe due to market recovery. Veran Medical Technologies and strong performance in respiratory-endotherapy products for EBUS-TBNA, and bronchoscopes, including new EBUS bronchoscopes. In other therapeutic areas, strong performance in ENT led by ENT endoscopes and energy devices led by THUNDERBEAT.

Moving on to Scientific Solutions division. Revenue totaled JPY 119.1 billion, up 24%. Operating profit was JPY 17.5 billion with an operating margin of 14.7%, due mainly to increased revenue, coupled with the improved factory operation rates as well as continuation of the cost optimization. I will now give a full year review for each subsegments. In Life Science, sales growth was supported by market recovery and improved budget execution at research institutions and universities. Biological microscopes made a contribution in APAC and North America due to market recovery led by fewer marketing restrictions. In Industrial, CapEx sentiment continued to improve, driven by overall market recovery. Notable strength in industrial microscopes driven by 5G-related electronic components and semiconductor markets, nondestructive testing equipment also contributed to sales growth.

Next, our financial position at the end of March 2022 shown on Page 21. Cash and deposits rose due to an increase in operating cash flow. Investment securities decreased by JPY 8.7 billion. We are currently working to optimize our holdings of investment securities based on our policy of holding listed stocks, which will contribute to our medium- to long-term corporate value. Goodwill and intangible assets increased due to the acquisition of Medi-Tate and others. We can sell approximately 72 million treasury shares in June 2021. In the meantime, we repurchased approximately 12.7 million treasury shares totaling about JPY 30 billion from December 2021 to February 2022. In December 2021, we issued U.S. dollar-based corporate bonds totaling USD 500 million. Equity ratio rose 4.3 percentage points year-on-year to 37.6%.

Slide 22, the status of cash flows. Cash flow from operating activities was JPY 169.7 billion, up 37% year-on-year. While operating cash flow increased significantly due to improved business performance and profit levels, there was a one-off expenditure of JPY 11.2 billion and the reversal of provision for the career support for external opportunity program. Cash flow from investing activities increased by JPY 47.9 billion. But if we exclude the expenditures for M&As and business transfer in fiscal 2021 and 2022, cash flow from investing activities decreased by JPY 4.2 billion. Free cash flow stood at JPY 98.7 billion. Adjusted free cash flow, which has been identified as a reference indicator for corporate strategy was JPY 131.3 billion if the expenditures for the reversal of provision for the career support for external opportunity program and the acquisition of Medi-Tate were excluded. As a result, the growth rate for adjusted free cash flow was 65% year-on-year, a 2-year CAGR of 36% from fiscal 2022, representing steady progress towards achieving target.

Cash flow from financial activities declined by JPY 81.5 billion to minus JPY 40.7 billion, due mainly to the debt repayments and purchase of treasury shares, while financing through the issuance of U.S. dollar corporate bonds. As a result, cash and cash equivalents as of the end of March 2022, stood at JPY 302.6 billion, an increase of JPY 85.1 billion.

Next, I would like to explain our full year forecast for FY 2023. Our full year forecast for fiscal 2023, we expect revenue to increase 11% year-on-year to JPY 968 billion. We continue to promote cost optimization, while at the same time, implementing strategic investments for the future. Adjusted operating margin is expected to improve to approximately 21%. We expect to post record operating profit and margin along with record profit of JPY 154 billion. We also expect to achieve EPS of JPY 121, an increase of 34% year-on-year.

Regarding dividends for FY '23, we plan to pay a dividend of JPY 16 per share, up JPY 2 from the previous year, in light of financial forecast under our policy of stable and ongoing dividend increase. The forecast assumptions are JPY 123 to the dollar and JPY 135 to the euro. Needless to say, FY '23 is an important year for us to achieve the targeted adjusted operating margin of over 20% sets in our corporate strategy. While we have made steady progress up to this point. There are some risks in the business environment that need to be addressed. For example, including supply shortages for semiconductors and other components, the war in Ukraine and the resurgence of COVID-19 in China. The amounts that we deem appropriate at this moment have been factored into the forecast. Considering various risk mitigation measures. As we have done up to this slide, we will continue to manage business operations while keeping a close eye on trends in business performance.

Slide 25, our forecast by business segment. We expect to post record revenues in Medical, including ESD and TSD and in SSD. In terms of elimination and corporate, we expect improvement due to a decrease in other expenses incurred in the previous year and a gain of JPY 16.4 billion and the transfer of fixed assets in other income.

That's all from me. Next, Nacho Abia, our COO, will describe key priorities of our Medical business.

[Nacho Abia, executive]

Thank you, Takeda. This is Nacho Abia, Chief operating officer. And I would like to briefly explain the key priorities of our Medical business to achieve fiscal year '23 targets, but also to prepare ourselves for continuous above-market growth in future.

Let me start with Endoscopic Solutions. For the fiscal year, we have set 5 key priorities in this area. First, we will continue expanding the sales of our state-of-the-art endoscopy platform, EVIS X1. Although the platform was launched in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic sales momentum has been ramping up in the regions where it is already marketed due to continuous promotional activities and great product acceptance from our customers and has already become the main growth driver for ESD. We will continue to expand sales and accelerate the replacement of previous-generation system with EVIS X1. We're working closely with medical professionals. And through these efforts, we will ensure that patients receive more reliable, safe and accurate endoscopic examinations and treatments.

At the same time, we will stably work to prepare for the introduction of EVIS X1 in the regions where we have not yet launched it. And specifically in the U.S., we are making a very necessary effort to obtain regulatory approval with the aim of launching the platform during the second half of this fiscal year. In addition, we plan to launch next-generation ultrasound endoscopy system, a next-generation surgical endoscopy system in Europe and Japan, we will prepare in launch in other region as this product line will help drive for future growth as well. And finally, we will maximize the market potential of China and other emerging countries, and I will explain a little bit more about China later in this presentation.

Let's turn to the next slide to talk about Therapeutic Solutions division. As explained last December, during Investor Day presentation, our Medical business strategy intends to elevate the standard of care in targeted business where we can bring to the market differentiated products and solutions that will improve clinical and economic value for health care providers. In ESD, this is really the case in a number of GI diseases, and we are working to expand our impact in other areas. In TSD, we are already market leader in the diagnosis and treatment of very critical diseases for our diversified portfolio. For example, our endotherapy leading portfolio have physicians to succeed in complex GI procedures like ERCP or ESD.

Neurology, we lead in BPH and in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer treatment. In respiratory, we are the leaders in lung cancer staging and diagnostics. These are some areas where we are currently having the greatest impact, and we will continue working to expand our influence in those and other business and through it, to continue to grow our business over market levels in the years to come. Based on this strategy, in fiscal year '23, we intend to expand the provision of value to new growth areas where we can differentiate ourselves by leveraging our strength centers and our strong foothold on core products with high competitiveness, excellent clinical value and a strong market position in this solution charts.

In GI endotherapy, we will continue to aggressively expand our clinically differentiated product portfolio in key categories such as ERCP, ESD, metal stents and hemostasis devices. In urology, in addition to continued expanding sales from our mainstream products to a system, which supports Transurethral Resection of the prostate, we will continue leading the industry in the field of BPH by developing a less-invasive procedure more adequate for certain patients through the introductions of the iTind device in several markets. In addition, we aim to further grow in the treatment of kidney stones by expanding sales of the very well-accepted SOLTIVE SuperPulsed Laser System, which sell has been a very strong momentum in recent years, and the opportunity remains large. Finally, in respiratory, we first aim to launch EVIS X1 its corresponding bronchoscope lineup in the United States. Furthermore, we will maximize the benefits of integrating Veran Electromagnetic Navigation technologies and accelerate growth by developing and expanding our impact in the field of [indiscernible].

Please turn to Slide 29. Next topic I would like to mention is about the solid revenue growth by region that we experienced in fiscal year 2022. And that talks about our well-established and well-balanced commercial presence all over the world. We believe this broad presence will allow us to better serve medical professionals and the patients they serve across geographies with the right products and technologies they need. And through it, to continue expanding our business as the worldwide health care demand will evolve and grow. The slide shows the sales ratio growth by region for fiscal year '22. You can see that Americas and Europe, which accounts for more than 60% of revenue, drove high growth in the previous fiscal year, also well above before pre-pandemic levels. We believe that this growth trend will continue in future, and we aim to achieve growth by continuously introducing new products and expanding sales in all regions.

Please turn to Slide 30. Finally, I would like to explain our long-term views on the strategic position of the Chinese market. In China, hospital revenue declined significantly in 2020 due to COVID-19. And due to that, we saw a decline in hospital budgets in 2021. As a result, our business performance for fiscal year '22 was also impacted, and we did not grow as much I'd like. On the other hand, China hospital budgets are expected to increase in 2022, following an increase in hospital revenue in 2021. And therefore, we will advance sales promotion activities for products and services centered in GI solutions with the aim of capturing increased budgets and grow at high rate.

Our sales in China have grown significantly over the last 10 years, and the revenue for fiscal year '22 was about 3.7x higher than the one for fiscal year '15. We recognize that the Chinese market continues to be an important market for us and has further growth potential. For the past 50 years, we've built a solid business portfolio in the Chinese market with very solid foundation of relations of trust and commit. We have also contributed to the medical field in China by supporting continuous industrial training and providing excellent products and services. The Chinese government is actively promoting national medical policies centered on 2 key areas: improvement of local medical standard center of country-level hospitals and strengthening preventive medical care. In line with these policies, early counters cleaning is expected to expand and capital investments are being actively deployed in Class II hospitals.

Respiratory diseases, which are 1 of our 3 focus areas have also higher unmet needs and room for growth in China. So we will strengthen as well our effort in this area. We believe that by providing the value of our strength of early detection, early diagnosis and minimally invasive treatment, we can contribute to promoting diagnosis and reducing mortality. We'll continue to make optimal investments to come to this growth potential. In closing, the business environment continues to be uncertain this year, but the direction we will take is clear. We will concentrate our resources in GI, urology and respiratory where we can maximize our strength, and we will contribute to improving the medical standards for proprietary businesses and the outcome patients. Thank you very much.

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

We will now move on to the Q&A session. The first question about the medical business in China.

[Masahiro Shibano, analyst]

For Q3 financial results, year-on-year, you had a decline in revenue. And in the background explanation, there was a priority given to the domestic products. by China policy. So there was some concern about that. But on the other hand, if you look at the fourth quarter results, you have regained a high level of revenue once again. So what is the current momentum in China? What is the situation in China? So if you had a strong Q4, maybe there will be some backlash in Q1. So is it something that we should be prepared for? Could you share with us your comments on these points, please?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Shibano-san, thank you very much for your question. This question, I like to direct it to Nacho. Nacho, could you answer Shibano-san's question?

[Nacho Abia, executive]

Yes, of course. Thank you, Shibano-san, for your question. The situation in China right now, I think it's obviously a temporarily due to the COVID situation in Shanghai and in other areas. So I think that for this last and this month, probably situation is definitely a little bit extraordinary. But generally speaking, as you mentioned, I think that in Q3, we had some decline in China due to -- mostly due to the reduction of budgets and in Q4, we grew again in China. And our expectation as we move forward for the reasons I explained before, is to continue growing in the Chinese market.

We have a very strong position in certain product categories, and we have been contributing and working with the Chinese health care market for many years. So we will continue leveraging that. At the same time, it is also true that the Chinese local manufactured products are becoming more and more competitive. And this should be a motivation for us to continue developing technologies, which are state-of-the-art and help us to continue leading in this market as we are currently having in GI technologies. So I think overall, our situation in China, it's very solid, and we continue to see and expect growth in China for the years to come. I hope I answered your question. Thank you.

[Masahiro Shibano, analyst]

For the April to June quarter, if you look at this quarter, if I may ask the same thing, sorry for that. But in this region, there is a lot of fluctuation from quarter-to-quarter in this region. So more than expected, there were surprises in the past. Therefore, for the April to June quarter, if you have a severe outlook, we want to know. Do you have any concern about this specific quarter from April to June? Do you have any concern?

[Nacho Abia, executive]

As you know, the situation including in China right now is very much impacted for the coverage situation in Shanghai area, primarily also in other areas in China, but primarily in Shanghai. And this is provoking stretches in supply chain, not only of medical products, but in general, in the entire market. So this situation obviously is going to have an impact until the situation is solved and it's difficult to predict at this point what -- when the solution is going to be resolved and when the Chinese government is going to decide to open the Shanghai area again.

I think that at the same time, our salespeople in the field, they are continue collecting orders. The order collection keeps being in good shape. And in the moment, the restriction will be lifted, we will be able to deliver those products to the market. The specific numbers for Q1, I think, with the current situation, as I say, are difficult to predict. But what we know is that the demand is there, and our salespeople in the country is doing their best to help customers tend to keep collecting orders that will be delivered as soon as we can. Thank you.

[Masahiro Shibano, analyst]

I just have one follow-up question. Regarding the restriction on supply, what are your assumptions? In Takeda-san's presentation, there was a mentioning about the plan. And as one of the risk factors, you touched upon the restrictions on supply. But for the new fiscal year, for ESD and TSD you are expecting double-digit growth. So what are the assumptions for the sales plan in order to achieve this, so the supply restriction is it a downside risk or to a large extent, you have incorporated the assumption into your plan, which is the case?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Yes. Thank you very much, Shibano-san. This is Takeuchi speaking. I hope I can answer your question. especially regarding the semiconductor parts, in normal years, basically, for the full year, we should have already secured enough stock by this time of the year. But related to that, this year, it's not that we have already secured all of the stock for the rest of this year. So how this is turning out to be in the future, it is very difficult to predict at this point in time. So the impact from that cannot be calculated precisely. However, to a certain extent, we have already incorporated some of the risks that we talked about in the projections that we have. That's the situation.

[小池 幸弘, analyst]

Regarding the transfer of SSD business, Scientific Solutions business. For FY '23, the guidance of profit for SSD is [ JPY 245 billion ] -- or JPY 24.5 billion, which is higher than expectation. And the operating margin is close to 18%, which will be the highest ever. Can you explain the reasons why you have carved out in April? So maybe there was a difference change in the cost structure. If that's the case, could you explain that? And also regarding the depreciation about JPY 7 billion, which means that the EBITDA for Scientific Solutions would be over JPY 30 billion, which means that the JPY 200 billion, whether I think JPY 300 billion would be the transfer price as opposed to what was reported in the media earlier. So do you have any guidance on that as to what will be the value of SSD for transfer? And what will be the use of that JPY 300 billion?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Thank you, Koike-san for your question. Regarding the carve-out to grow the potential of Scientific solutions, that is the purpose of this carve-out. And I think that, that effect is being felt partially. The big factor is as follows. Since the last fiscal year, as was explained by Takeda-san earlier, the orders have been very strong. And semiconductor impact was partially part of the picture. But in reality, we haven't been able to deliver to satisfy all the orders. So we have many backlog orders when we started this fiscal year. So it's really not the improved efficiency in cost. Yes, there is part of that, but mostly it is the orders -- strong orders that are in the background of our expected strong growth in revenue. Of course, there is the foreign exchange impact as well. So the business foundation is very strong. That is the basic assumption.

And with regards to the second point, we don't have anything that we can share with you as guidance at this point in time. If I could repeat myself, it's not that we have made any official decisions internally. And there isn't any specifics that we can share with you at this point in time.

[小池 幸弘, analyst]

I see. I have a follow-up question. As of the end of March, net debt is over JPY 8 billion; and EBITDA, JPY 270 billion for this fiscal year, so 3.2x would be the net income and EBITDA ratio. So inclusive of the price at which you will be selling SSD, what will be the maximum proceedings that we can expect? And I think you have been implementing various measures mainly to address cost issues. But going forward, what will be the expectations. On Slide 13, you talk about the acquisition of a value pool for sustainability, which I think would be different in terms of the management capability required from the past. So as you move into the next growth, would you continue to maintain the current structure of 6 executive officers?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Koike-san, thank you for your question. You said it's a follow-up question, but actually, you asked lots of questions. And some were very difficult to answer, frankly speaking. Maximum amount of investments, it's very difficult to share our view on that, frankly, because to move to the growth phase, many business acquisitions will have to be considered as well. Well, that's been the case in the past as well. But we believe that the significance of acquisitions would increase going forward. So there is a timing issue and there are other factors that need to consider. So there is a wide range in terms of what the possibilities are. So we can't really say what will be the size of the investments that will be made. What we're making going forward. So that will be the answer to your question. And Takeda-san, anything to add?

[Chikashi Takeda, executive]

No, not in particular. As for net debt EBITDA ratio, as you indicated, it's relatively low. We are aware of that. For example, global -- compared to global peer, what will be the comfort range we have that in mind, and it's not just debt but equity financing is another option that we can pursue. So there are various options in front of us, and it will be decided on a case-by-case basis. It's all I can add.

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

And one more thing, the executive officer system, the structure that you asked about towards the end. Starting this April, we have 6 executive offices structure. And I feel that the operation model in the past, which was region-oriented, lots of discretion to regions. That was the past. Whereas now, of course, we have been trying to shift from that, but we are going to further strengthen more global-oriented governance. so that cross regional development efforts and business exploration, business development and quality assurance activities could be accelerated. So that is one of the main thrust of this new structure, 6 executive office structure. Should we see further progress, of course, it's premature to give you the specifics. But of course, there is a possibility that we are going to revisit this. So the executive officer structure would be looked at in accordance with the situation of time. So it could be variable.

[小池 幸弘, analyst]

In May of next year, could you be sharing with us some new ideas? Can we expect that? The time frame?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

No, we can't we don't have any time frame that we can promise we'll let you know at the right time.

[林 良太郎, analyst]

Regarding ESD segment the most important product category is GI endoscopes. That is my understanding. At this time, in the slide about the pipeline, the surgical endoscope new products were indicated in the bold font. So for the surgical endoscopes, I have some questions. In the past, for VISERA Series when you launched new product, the sales contribution was great. However, in terms of gross margin, relatively, it was poor. Because of that, there was a product mix deteriorating factor, as you cited. This time, the upcoming next-generation surgical endoscope system that you're launching from now. In terms of the profitability, do you think that you can make sure that this will contribute to profitability?

At the top of this slide, regarding surgical endoscope, one of the themes for that category is improving profitability. So the past VISERA series profitability issue, what exactly was the problem? And what -- how is it different this time for the new product? How are you going to improve on that point? Could you elaborate on that?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Yes. Hayashi-san you very much for your question. Regarding the GI, urology and respiratory, we have another area. So that's surgical is not the focus area, but we acquired Quest. And for surgical area, we are not defocusing from this area as a company. We are still acquiring companies. So we are trying to add more functionalities and capabilities in this area as well, although it's not the core area. For your specific question, Nacho, could you answer Hayashi-san's question. Nacho, please.

[Nacho Abia, executive]

Yes, of course. Hayashi-san, thank you for your question. The -- indeed, the competitive environment of the surgical imaging landscape is definitely more competitive for us than in GI where we have clearly a technology differentiation. So that's one of the main factors driving the profit is lower than the corresponding profits in GI. This has been the case for a number of years. And as was mentioned during the Investor Day last December, we are working to address that profitability issue in areas for like surgical imaging that we're delivering less profit than other categories. We are working in pretty much in 2 directions. One direction is clearly the addition of new technologies, new modalities that will help overcome competition.

And I think that as just mentioned, the acquisition of Quest Technologies is something that will help us to bring new emerging modalities to the market soon. And with that, we hope that we can boost significantly the competitiveness of our products. The second is more in terms of internal development expenditure. So we are working with the CTO area in order to -- with the Chief Technology Officer in order to find a way, a new way to develop products, which are looking for more synergies across the different product categories. And through that, we all can reduce the cost of developing new products in all areas as well. So I think through these 2 initiatives, additional technologies and new development methodologies, we believe that we can address significantly the profitability of our surgical business and bring those at the levels are much higher than what it is today. It will take years, of course, but that's the plan, and that's where we will be executed. Thank you Hayashi-san.

[林 良太郎, analyst]

I have a follow-up question. In the past, with the surgical endoscope, you tried to increase the market share in this specific category in the past. But going forward, in the next 3 years, against Stryker and [indiscernible], do you have any intention to increase your market share against them? Or are you just trying to maintain the current market share, which is the case?

[Nacho Abia, executive]

Of course, we have the intention to increase our market share, but the intention has to be sustained by features, by technology and by products. And this is what we are continuously launching new products and technology into the market. And this is something that we will continue. I can imagine that over the next years, the competitive situation still will be tight. But as we -- as has been explained in this slide, I mean, we will be continuing new generation of products and hope we can help overcome the competitive situation and help us to increase our market share. But we are also working more in the long run in order to deliver definitely superior technologies in margin modalities that will help boost this increased market share in the future as well.

[森 貴宏, analyst]

I have a question on shareholder returns. This year's results compared to the plan, excluding the SSD transfer, you are expecting the dividend increase. And I think it's going to be a discontinued operation. So regardless of SSD transfer, are you still expecting the dividend increase?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Thank you, Mori-san, for your question. Our capital allocation policy or basic shareholder return policy. No, it's really the capital allocation issue. As we have been saying maintain a certain level of financial health and make business investments and then make the shareholder return. So that will be the order of priorities. Regarding dividends, however, basically, a steady increase in dividends has been our policy for the last several years, and we have been increasing the dividends in accordance with that policy.

So regardless of the management events, basically, we will continue with that. That is our current capital allocation policy. And therefore, regardless of SSD business transfer, we are thinking of JPY 16 per share dividend.

[森 貴宏, analyst]

I see. A follow-up question. Regarding SSD, the evident company the balance sheet in March. I think you have over JPY 100 billion assets, the cash, and you do have some investments. So a little less than JPY 200 billion I think the cash on the balance sheet for evident company. Am I correct?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Takeda-san the CFO would respond.

[Chikashi Takeda, executive]

The subsidiary by subsidiary detailed information is not disclosed. So I cannot make a specific response to your question, I'm afraid.

[森 貴宏, analyst]

Okay. So based on what's on press release we can calculate, but you are not going to disclose or make any official comments. Correct?

[Chikashi Takeda, executive]

That is correct. Yes.

[Motoya Kohtani, analyst]

The first question, this is about the details of China. From October to December, there was a revenue decline and the stock price declined. So for the year ending in March 2023, I want more details about the year. Looking at ESD, maybe GI endoscopy for FY '23 on a local currency basis, it's not growing because of the restrained purchase and by China policy. But for the full year, is it growing? And there is not so much differentiation in this area. So given the domestic, it may be difficult. And the maintenance service contract has just started, so it's still growing. So all in all, so ESD, on a local currency basis, do you have a net growth? For TSD, the situation is tougher. There is no special demand energy device, there is an impact of collective purchasing. So for endotherapy, there is an impact from lockdown. So for TSD, it's more difficult to grow. So between ESD and TSD, could you give us as much detail as possible?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Kohtani-san, thank you very much for your question. You said as much details as possible. Nacho, could you explain and give Kohtani-san more details?

[Nacho Abia, executive]

Thanks for your question, and I'll try to give you more details. I don't know if all the details that you might decide, but I'll try to illustrate a little bit the situation. In short, yes, we are expecting to grow in China in fiscal year '23. And the main reason for that growth is the fact that we expect hospital budget to increase and our solid position in the GI business. And actually, in ESD, our GI products are having the highest market share in China. And even during the last 3 years, we haven't -- even with the restriction for purchase, we haven't noticed any decrease in market share. So our market share in GI products in China is very solid. The government policies like Buy China or other policies. At the end of the day, the only way we can work with that is really working with the Chinese health care authorities and the health care providers in China to prove that our technologies are actually driving the right outcomes, the right clinical outcome, but also the economical up, right?

So in the case of GI, we don't only sell the endoscopes, but we sell the service equipment and we service those endoscopes. So at the end of the day, the total value of our offering has to be superior to the local products. At the end of -- in China, obviously, there's a competitive environment. There are companies that are Chinese companies that are developing good technology and good products. And as in any other market, we have to compete, and we have to compete through new products and new technology. GI is that's the situation, and that's what is going to drive the growth that we are expecting in fiscal year '23. Of course, the cost situation, I think this is extraordinary at this point. And I think that it's -- over the last 2 years, the demand in China has been a little bit random month by month. So we have a weak Q3, but we have a strong Q4.

And I think the demand is shifting from one month to the other based on the specifics of the COVID situation. But overall, I think that our expectations are good. The TSD, you mentioned energy, for example, and indeed, energy is a complex category and are very competitive there. But our TSD products are far beyond the energy devices, right? So we have very strong position in China in endotherapy high complex procedures like the ERCP and ESD, we have a very solid position there, and we plan to continue bringing products that would expand that position. We have urology products. We have [ nomology ] products and respiratory projects. So I think our portfolio is broad. We are going to have to compete with Chinese products as we do with any other products in any other market. But we are solid that through working with the health care providers in China, showing them the value that we can provide through our technology and through our services, we can continue growing. And again, I want to emphasize that our plan is to grow in China in fiscal year '23. Thank you Kohtani-san.

[Motoya Kohtani, analyst]

I have a follow-up question. So the BPH portfolio, people are not focusing so much on BPH, but it's growing. There are 2 products. One is PlasmaButton. Why is that growing? You had a legacy TURis. Are you just replacing that with a new one? Or like holmium laser and resume like Boston Scientific, are you replacing competitors' products? And another point is SOLTIVE, the market share is very high. So the -- compared with the existing products, laser products, there are many benefits. There is no need to rinsing with water and fiber thing, and you can reduce the lead time by 13%. You are the only one who have the similar products. So for the stone management, for the treatment of stones. The market size, JPY 180 billion, it's not small at all. So for PlasmaButton, why is it growing? And how far can you go in SOLTIVE? How much will be the end state? How far can you grow on this product?

[Nacho Abia, executive]

Thank you for this question. And you always impress me with your detailed knowledge about our products and portfolio Kohtani-san. To the first question, I think PlasmaButton is an addition to our TURis technology and is obviously, the TURis is the standard of care for advanced BPH treatment and it has been the case for many years. But obviously, there are competition out there. And we need to continuously bring in additional solutions that will help the physicians that use our products in order to be able to perform the procedures in a more efficient way and in a better way. So I think that that's what we continue doing in our BPH franchise, and this is what is driving the growth. And this is what we maintain in our very high market share. As for your question about SOLTIVE especially on lithotripsy in kidney stone treatments, you are totally right.

I think that the SOLTIVE technology is clearly superior in the -- and as it is well accepted by our customers. But we are also aware that we were the pioneers. We launched it first than anyone else that technology, but most likely in the years to come is going to be some other competitors that will also launch this thulium laser technology. So I think our strategy here as pioneers, is to try to put as many products in the market as fast as we can. So we can convince our customers that this is the best solution and to make the work with us and make sure that our installed base is solid. And based on that, to continue bringing innovations to the market that will continue compensating for any competitor bringing also thulium technology to the market. So that's the thought. But in these 2 areas, we believe that we have a very large opportunity to grow in the future. Thank you Kohtani-san.

[Motoya Kohtani, analyst]

But Nacho. So I'm looking at the 510(k) for the SOLTIVE it's pretty clear that the thulium laser comes from a certain company called IPG Photonics. They are the leaders of fiber laser technologies. So unless you buy the fiber lasers from them, you can't probably can't really enter this market. So is it fairly clear to say that you pretty much sort of cornered the market for thulium laser lithotripsy? Or can somebody still come up with thulium laser after you? I don't see how competitive that would be. But it just seems like you have a very big advantage and perhaps you might want to sort of tell investors that.

[Nacho Abia, executive]

Well, Kohtani-san it's an -- I cannot speak for the activities of our competitors. I know that we have had the advantage to be the first ones, a launching thulium laser to the market. And clearly, as you mentioned before, there is very some clear clinical advantages in the utilization, and that's what we are promoting continuously. I cannot tell because I don't know what are the activities from some of our competitors in the area, how they can have access to that technology, and I cannot predict what that happened. What I can say is that we're going to do our utmost efforts in order to install as many equipment as we can, so we can continue supplying that. And not only that, we are also working on the next-generation SOLTIVE system, so we can add additional features on top of the laser technology to continue satisfying the needs of our customers. So I cannot speak for our competition. I hope and I wish that this unique advantage of in the market will continue. But definitely, with or without the exclusivity in the market, I think that we need to do our work of promoting the system and convincing the customer that this is a resolution. That's what we are trying to do.

[葭原 友子, analyst]

The M&A policy is my question. The SSD transfer after that, I think M&A policy is going to be very important for Olympus. That's my personal view. And Takeda-san, you mentioned at the very outset that as a global medtech company, there are gaps that still exist. Regarding the acquisition, the M&A policy and strategy what are your thoughts? How confident are you? And of course, finding the right deals, I think, would be important, but especially the PMI, post-merger integration would be critical. My impression is that you don't have much experience in that area. So do you think that your resource is still missing? Or do you think you are well prepared for further acquisitions?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Thank you, Yoshihara-san, for your question. First, I would like to respond and then ask Nacho for additional comments, if there are any. First, broadly speaking, evident transfer, regardless of whether that is going to take place in the future or not. Our direction of becoming the med tech company remains unchanged, and we need additional capabilities. So business development investments centering on M&A would become even more important going forward, and the amount is going to increase. The size is going to increase as well. Regarding PMI, post-merger integration, the entire process, the entire process of M&A strategies, yes, there are many challenges that have yet to be resolved. So at one point in time, it's not that we are going to complete that whole process. So I think we're going to have the deal on a case-by-case basis because there are differences in what needs to be managed. But through the experience being accumulated, I think we can be efficient from the very beginning in looking for the candidate companies to lead to a more efficient PMI. So I think we're going to have more expertise built. So still currently, we do have a gap as you have correctly indicated. With that, Nacho, any additional comments?

[Nacho Abia, executive]

Thank you, Takeuchi-san. Thank you for this question. I think that Olympus has a very powerful organic growth machine, probably one of the best in the industry because we are growing organically very significantly more than many of our competitors from an organic point of view. And this is good. This is -- this has been boosting the Olympus growth and results over many years. But we also think that there is a significant opportunity if we can complement that organic growth with some inorganic growth. So definitely, business development and M&A, it's now big and relevant part of our activities. But we also are very consistent and serious in our strategy of elevating the standard of care, meaning that when we face acquisition, we have to make sure that the acquired company or the acquired asset can really help us to achieve that strategic goal.

So this is exactly what we've been doing with the acquisition of Veran Medical Technology, which complements perfectly our respiratory portfolio or with Quest that this phenomenal acquisition in terms of increasing our imaging modality in the future or Arc Medical or many others, right? So every single acquisition that we've done in the last 2 years has been very much linked to the strategy. So we plan to continue doing that. We plan to continue exploring the market and continue bringing I mean, a series of vaccines that can complement our existing strategy and portfolio and help us to increase some additional growth in our very solid organic growth. So absolutely, yes. I think that we need to enhance our business development activities, and we are doing that, and we are very much keen on exploring the market and seeking for opportunities.

[葭原 友子, analyst]

I have a follow-up question. For major acquisitions in the future, would you be hiring more people from outside for the experts teams? Do you have any such plans for the future for major acquisitions going forward?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Thank you. Already, the transform medical activities started 3 years ago. And in this process, we do have the experts teams formed in U.S. and Europe.

[葭原 友子, analyst]

And we're thinking of any specific investments to enhance this?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

No. But going forward, should we see the need for that, and I personally feel that, that need is going to arise in the future. But for now, we don't have any specific plans.

[Takashi Akahane, analyst]

I have clarifications on China. Just one question. With the procurement group of Olympus, IPI Group, we had a meeting the other day. We have imaging business and another business you are selling off. And there was an explanation that the camera and endoscopy business are closely related. But by spinning off isn't there any problem that, of course, you are foreseeing because of the interrelation between those 2 businesses going forward?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Akahane-san thank you very much. We took a lot of time at the time of the imaging business and more than that for the Scientific Solutions business, SSD, to spin off this business. We -- as we did that, to carve out this business, we planned ahead and thought through how to spin off and separate the business very carefully. For IP as well and the production engineering technology as well. So we have cleared all these questions before we made a decision on making it a subsidiary. So we don't -- you don't have any concern.

[Takashi Akahane, analyst]

So development relationship will be completely savored.

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Yes, that is correct.

[Naoko Saito, analyst]

On ESD, including China, Q1, Q3 are low Q2, Q4, high. Am I correct to understand that, that trend has been recovered for ESD? And in ESD has there been any revenue recorded in -- recorded from the previous quarter. Am I correct? The front loading. There is no front loading for Q4 results from Q1. Am I correct?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Nacho, could you take that question?

[Nacho Abia, executive]

Yes. The -- as I said, as I mentioned before in this -- in some of the questions, what we are seeing in China in -- mostly provoked by the COVID situation, is that the demand is a little bit strange this year over the last quarter with some quarters more stronger than others. So I think that when we look at the situation in China, I think we need to look beyond one specific quarter because, again, there might be some extraordinary impact in a specific quarter. So as I say, the Q3 demand was slow, we recovered in Q4. And over the course of fiscal year '23, we plan to continue to grow, and we have plans to grow aned pipeline and discussions with customers that make us think that, that the growth is going to come. But obviously, it might be impacted temporarily by situations like the supply chain situation in Shanghai that we are observing right now. So I think that there is no transfer between Q4 and of last year and Q1 of this year, and that is business as usual in that sense, at least from an order collection point of view. And obviously, the restrictions are more on the supply chain change side at this point. Thank you.

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Saito-san, does that answer your question Saito-san?

[Naoko Saito, analyst]

Yes. So basically, for Q1 sales are lower. But Q4, there is no front loading in Q4 from Q1. That did not take place. Am I correct in the Q4 results?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

When you say front loading -- by front-loading, if you're talking about the next year's business being recorded in the previous year, is that what you mean by front loading?

[Naoko Saito, analyst]

Yes, that's what I mean.

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

In Q3, I think that's what happened.

[Naoko Saito, analyst]

Oh, I see.

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

So for Q4, no, that didn't happen. Basically, in actuality, when we look at the Q4 results, especially towards the end of Q4, it coincided with the lockdown in Shanghai, and there are a certain period of time where shipments could not be made.

[Naoko Saito, analyst]

Well, that's not a directly relevant factor, but there was no front-loading from Q1. I see. Just one more thing, if I may, a follow-up question. The Shanghai lockdown, other than Shanghai lockdown, any macroeconomic conditions for this fiscal year regarding the CapEx, for example?

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Most probably the Shanghai lockdown is limited only to the Shanghai area. And in terms of supply chain, of course, it had an impact on us significantly. But in terms of market, I think the impact is limited to the Shanghai area. Now would that have impact in other areas and 0 COVID-19 policy is strongly driven in China. So in addition to supply chain disruption issue, the hospital budget where we expect growth going forward, it might be impacted. So that could be one factor where we need to pay attention to.

[Naoko Saito, analyst]

I see.

[Yasuo Takeuchi, executive]

Thank you, Saito-san. We're now at the end of the assigned time. So we're going to conclude the Q&A session and Takeda-san, any concluding remarks.

[Chikashi Takeda, executive]

Yes. Thank you. Thank you very much for sparing 90 minutes with us. In the last fiscal year, all of our employees really worked hard and brought about better results than we had expected. And if I could repeat myself, the operating margin and operating profit KPI targets for the 3-year period are most likely to be achieved as a result. Still, we are seeing very difficult times continuing, especially for this fiscal year, the uncertainty is very strong. I'm afraid.

And as was asked by one of the questioners earlier, to the extent where forecast is possible, we are factoring the risks to the extent possible, but there could be some unexpected things that might happen. So how quickly can we respond that capability building is what we have been focusing on through the Transform Olympus initiative for the last 3 years so that we can respond and be very agile and flexible and rapid matter to some of the uncertainties so I think we are in a better position. So even when there are some unexpected things happening, I think we have a great team being capable of responding to those. So the figures that we are presenting today as guidance, we want to make sure that we'll be achieving that.