Nissan Motor Co Ltd
TSE:7201
If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
| 52 Week Range |
368.6
642.5
|
| Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches JPY.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
This alert will be permanently deleted.
Nissan Motor Co Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Q1-2025 Analysis
Nissan Motor Co Ltd
Nissan's first quarter for fiscal year 2024 has been turbulent, marked by a mixed financial performance. Despite net revenue increasing to approximately JPY 3 trillion, the company's operating profit plummeted to JPY 1 billion, a significant reduction. This was primarily due to adverse performance in the U.S. and Japan, as well as increased competition and higher selling expenses. The quarter culminated in a net income of JPY 28.6 billion.
Nissan's total global retail sales plateaued at 787,000 units this quarter. Notable performances include a 3.3% rise in China's retail sales and a 7.6% increase in Europe. Conversely, Japan and North America saw declines of 8% and 1.7% respectively. The production side was not spared, falling 7.5% globally to 784,000 units due to supply adjustments to match the demand.
In Japan, the kei car segment witnessed modest growth driven by models like DAYZ. However, overall retail sales declined by 8%. North America's sales also dipped, influenced by old model changeovers and a market shift towards hybrids. Meanwhile, Europe outperformed the market, buoyed by the strong demand for e-POWER variants. China saw intense competition from domestic brands, yet Nissan maintained a relatively stable performance within the international brand segment.
Despite a challenging quarter, Nissan introduced refreshed models like Ariya NISMO, Kicks, Qashqai, and QX80. New launches in various regions—including Note Aura in Japan, Juke in Europe, and Pathfinder in China—highlight the company's resilience. These product introductions are aimed at driving a recovery in the upcoming quarters.
Nissan revised its full-year guidance in response to the first quarter challenges, forecasting unit sales to decrease slightly to 3.65 million units. Sales in China are expected to decrease by 3.8%, while other regions remain flat or show minor declines. The revised revenue projection stands at JPY 14 trillion, with an operating profit forecast of JPY 500 billion—down by JPY 100 billion from previous estimates—and a net income target adjusted to JPY 300 billion. Capital investments and R&D spending remain unchanged at JPY 620 billion and JPY 665 billion respectively.
Looking forward, Nissan anticipates benefits from foreign exchange rates and new model introductions will help mitigate inflation pressures and other costs. The company aims to recover operating profit to the revised target through increased volumes and efficient inventory management. Key models such as the Armada Murano and Infiniti QX80 in the U.S., e-POWER variants in Europe, and new energy vehicles in China are expected to play significant roles in this recovery strategy.
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Good afternoon. Welcome to Nissan's First Quarter 2024 Financial Results. Thank you for joining us. First, let me introduce the speakers for today. Mr. Makoto Uchida, President, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Stephen Ma, Chief Financial Officer. In today's agenda, we will begin with the presentation followed by Q&A session. CFO, Stephen Ma, will cover the details of the results of the first quarter ending June 30. And CEO, Uchida, will present the outlook for the fiscal year. Now I'd like to turn it over to Mr. Ma.
Thank you, Lavanya. Good afternoon, everyone. We are announcing the results against challenging conditions and weaker performance in the first quarter. While the result is within our expectations, we are taking immediate actions to address the situation. I will describe it later.
Our net revenue rose slightly to around JPY 3 trillion. Our profit was adversely affected by several negative factors, which will be explained in later slides. Our operating profit was JPY 1 billion and net income, JPY 28.6 billion. In the first quarter, total global retail sales were flat at 787,000 units. In China, retail sales rose by 3.3% and in Europe, by 7.6%.
In Japan, sales declined by 8% and in North America, by 1.7%. In other markets, sales remained flat at roughly 120,000 units. As we adjusted supply to demand, global production fell by 7.5% to 784,000 units. This slide shows our key financial performance in each years. In the first 3 months of the year, consolidated net revenue was around JPY 3 trillion and operating profit was JPY 1 billion.
Net income totaled JPY 28.6 billion, and we accelerated CapEx to JPY 100.8 billion and R&D to JPY 147.9 billion to ensure investment for our future in line with Arc. Automotive business net revenue was up slightly at JPY 2.68 trillion with an operating loss of JPY 74 billion and auto free cash flow was negative at JPY 302.8 billion. Net cash in the automotive business remained healthy at JPY 1.4 trillion.
Turning to our performance in key markets. In Japan, overall retail sales declined by 8%. The kei car segment saw a 3.7% increase driven by good performance of refreshed DAYZ and Roox. Our supply caught up at the end of the quarter, and order intake is improving. We see a steady recovery from Q2 onwards with the launch of new models and marketing initiatives, models such as Serena e-POWER, Aura and DAYZ have shown a very positive trend in sales.
In North America, total industry volume growth was slower than expected. Nissan retail sales in North America decreased by 1.7% and in the U.S. by 3.1%. The decline in U.S. sales was primarily influenced by the impacts of the late molar changeover for Rogue and Sentra, aging product in some high-margin segments as well as the market movement towards hybrid vehicles.
In Mexico, we retained #1 sales position and fierce -- amidst fierce competition from new entrants. Our commitment to quality was recognized in a J.D. Power 2024 Initial Quality Study with Murano and QX80, earning Best in Segment honors.
Here's a little more detail on the U.S. situation. At the start of the fiscal year, we had to manage high inventory levels. The delayed changeover to model year '24 Rogue in Q4 last year resulted in increased incentive support to sell down the model year '23 vehicles as many competitors, model year '24 vehicle were already selling the market.
After the strong tactics to promote the model year '23 Rogue sell-down, we aim to restore transaction prices and reduce incentives. However, softer-than-expected industry demand, coupled with industry-wide inventory incentive increase led to the elevated spending to keep competitiveness and manage our inventories.
This situation will continue into Q2 as we are focused on improving inventory levels as well as a good transition to the refreshed models in the second half. We aim for a 20% normalization of inventory levels during the next few months with a more efficient use of incentives. Further, the introduction of new and refreshed models will help boost sales volume and ensure quality of sales.
In Europe, retail sales rose to 79,000 units as we continue to outperform the overall market. Customer orders are showing a positive trend, including for Qashqai and Juke, which is maintaining a strong sales momentum. The electrification mix stands at 49%, reflecting the strong demand on e-POWER variants, including the refreshed cash Qashqai e-POWER.
Ariya is well received by customers and continue to win awards, latest being named Best Car for Long Distance by AutoTrader's. In China, where we are reporting the results of the first half of the calendar year, competition for domestic brand remain intense. The total industry volume share of international passenger vehicle brands decreased by 15% year-over-year.
By contrast, the Nissan brands performed well among the international brands, declining only 2.3%. Despite intensifying competition, Sylphy maintained its top position in the ICE passenger vehicle segment during the first half of the year. The newly launched all-new Pathfinder has seen positive initial results.
Turning to the financial performance indicated for the first quarter. The net revenue increased by JPY 80.7 billion. Operating profit decreased by JPY 127.6 billion to JPY 1 billion due to performance in the U.S. and Japan, and net income decreased to JPY 28.6 billion. Next slide shows the variance factors for the quarter. Foreign exchange had a positive impact of JPY 23.7 billion, reflecting the strong dollar benefit net of other currency impacts.
Raw material costs had a positive impact of JPY 13.9 billion, and sales performance had a negative impact of JPY 110.4 billion, reflecting the intense competition, increased selling expenses, as mentioned previously. Monozukuri cost was managed efficiently and remained flat despite cost increases we absorbed.
Inflation had a negative impact of JPY 27.1 billion, while other items such as sales finance, credit losses and remarketing expenses accounted for an additional JPY 27.7 billion as market is normalizing. Together, these factors reduced our operating profit for the quarter.
Despite a challenging quarter, we have maintained our product momentum with a refreshed lineup. We present our lineup model, including the Ariya NISMO, Kicks, Qashqai and QX80 and started sales of Note Aura in Japan, Juke in Europe and Pathfinder in China, which is -- I will not explain the full-year outlook.
[Interpreted] Thank you very much. Given the challenges seen in the first quarter, we are revising our guidance for the full year. We expect unit sales to decrease slightly to 3.65 million units. Sales in China are forecast to decrease by 3.8%. Excluding China, we expect unit sales to be flat.
Sales in Japan are likely to reach 500,000 units. In North America, forecast is 1.41 million units, a decrease of 1.4%. Sales in Europe will remain as per our earlier outlook which is 385,000 units and other markets at 585,000 units. Production volumes are now forecast to be 3.45 million units. We are revising our forecast for the full fiscal year.
As explained earlier, the measures to clear inventory and management model year changes in the first quarter led to this revision. Revenues are expected to rise to JPY 14 trillion. Operating profit is revised to JPY 500 billion for the full year. This is JPY 100 billion below our previous forecast. Net income guidance is adjusted accordingly to JPY 300 billion.
Capital investment of JPY 620 billion and R&D spending of JPY 665 billion remain at the same level as the previous guidance. With regards to ForEx, it's JPY 155, euro is JPY 167. That is the ForEx assumption that we revised to. This slide shows the various factors behind our revised outlook. This includes a positive foreign exchange impact of JPY 80 billion, but we expect this will be offset by a JPY 110 billion reduction in sales due mainly to increased selling expenses to reduce inventories in the second quarter.
For the full year, we also anticipate JPY 50 billion of other costs, mainly linked to the used car price decrease. Taking all these factors into account, we have revised operating profit forecast of JPY 500 billion. In the remaining 3 quarters of the fiscal year, how do we forecast the operating profit? As CFO mentioned, we are on track to normalize inventories in Q2.
In the previous year, our total profit between Q2 and Q4 was JPY 440 billion. Though we -- in 2024, we continue to face inflation pressures and cost increase. We anticipate benefits from foreign exchange rates and 200,000 units of increased volume, thanks to the introduction of the new models. These factors should enable profit to recover to JPY 500 billion.
This has been a very challenging quarter for Nissan. A combination of corrective measures and new model launches will help drive our recovery. In the United States, we are introducing the Armada Murano, Infiniti QX80. In Europe, we anticipate momentum with e-POWER variants of Qashqai, X-Trail, Juke and Patrol in Middle East.
In Japan, good demand is expected for the Note, Sakura, Serena and Dayz. We are working intensively to implement the Arc business plan, focusing on launching exciting new cars to the customers and speeding up our time-to-market while enhancing the efficiency and agility of the manufacturing operation.
With these strategic actions, I am confident that Nissan will regain momentum. I thank you for your patience. I am now ready to address any questions you may have.
Thank you, Uchida-san, Ma-san.
[Operator Instructions] We now go to the first question from [ Ochiai-san ] from Nikkei Shimbun.
[Interpreted] This is [ Ochiai ] from Nikkei. Okay. So in May, you made -- you forecasted the full year guidance and you made a big revision. Operating profit reduced by 99% for the first quarter. Why? How come you see a big revision in such a short period of time in inventories, incentives to control the inventories? Weren't you too overly optimistic?
[Interpreted] Yes. Thank you for the question. The results for Q1, as I explained, is due to the impact of U.S. operation. Initially, didn't we anticipate the circumstances, optimization of inventories in U.S. We knew that this will pressure our profit. In U.S., increase of inventories and demand declined and intensifying competition in the segments.
Due to these factors, we were unable to boost the volume as expected. In 2023, in Q4, retail volume fall short of our expectation. And we had an old model year that we had to sell down. As a result, we had to spend additional incentives. These are the reasons behind it. On the other hand, affordable segment, where Sentra belongs to. In this affordable segment, we are delivering good impact, and we were able to gain share.
But volume, if you look at U.S., the volume, compared to the prior year, it's almost flat. But Rogue, which is a key model, we couldn't maintain the expected volume for Rogue and as a result, this pressured our profitability. This is one big reason. In Q1, because we haven't completely optimized inventories. In Q2, we will -- including the adjustment of production, we will continue adjusting or optimizing the inventories.
And as I said, the new upcoming models, we would like to take appropriate measures for the upcoming new models to be introduced. And as I mentioned, by introducing the new models as planned, we would like to achieve the sales volume and the profit that we are expecting.
We now go to the second question from [ Murakami-san ], Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun.
[Interpreted] Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun, my name is [ Murakami ]. This downward revision, how confident are you to hit these numbers? The gap of the revision compared -- seems to be smaller than the decline that you suffered in Q1. It seems like you are kind of optimistic. What's the probability of achieving the new numbers? How are you going to recover this Uchida-san? This is a question for you.
[Interpreted] Yes. Go back to the earlier slide, please. Various analysis for last year, the forecast slide. Yes. In the second half of the year, as I said, with the new model introduction, we expect to boost the volume, stabilize the profit and rejuvenate the lineup age. And as a result, we believe that we can achieve the plan.
The most important factor here is U.S., inventories in the U.S. should be optimized. This is the most important factor. In doing so, the upcoming new models like Kicks as well as Rogue, minor change. With this introduction, we would like to boost the volume. And on top of it, the Infiniti QX80 will be introduced in July.
And in North America, highly profitable, high-end cards, for example, Murano, Armada. These are the new models which will be introduced in the second half of the year. By having these new models, as I mentioned, with new models, we expect the impact. Last year, we generated JPY 440 billion. So by increasing 200,000 units, although we are impacted by inflation, this will be offset by ForEx benefit and generate JPY 499 billion. This is achievable. This is feasible.
And for volume, we made a revision on full year volume. In North America, we reduced to have 20,000 units and 30,000 units in China, and 50,000 units in total. Model year 2024, adjustment on the inventories was made. So as a result, by introducing new models in second half of the year, we have the feasibility to achieve the plan.
How about China? In China, between June -- January and June, 339,000 units were sold. Out of which, for example, new energy vehicle demand, ICE demand largely declined. But given these circumstances, we were able to be stable. We lost about 4,000 units compared to the prior year result.
In the second half of the year, given the seasonality, we believe the TIV will grow. A minor change and the flagship SUV, Pathfinder, thanks to these models, we are going to boost the volume. Therefore, in China, the JV brand market is largely declining year-on-year. And in the intensifying competition, tough situation will remain in the second half of the year.
But while keeping the results that we delivered in the first half of the year, by introducing new energy vehicles, we would like to grow our operation. So in Q1, we made a downward revision, which is -- was a tough decision to make, but we will make sure that we achieve the new numbers. That's very important. And this is the approach that we are taking as a result of the scrutiny. So we will do our best to achieve the new numbers.
We move on to the next question from [ TBS ], [ Omeda-san ], please.
[Interpreted] Yes. I would like to have a question about ForEx. ForEx rate assumption is JPY 155 to U.S. dollar. This is what you've revised to. Today, it's JPY 152-ish. It's -- the yen is depreciating, right? Lately, if you look at the ForEx, how do you assess the ForEx as of today? And the volatility is so big. So including volatility, how do you foresee the ForEx? That's my question. Then for the ForEx, well, of course, we will monitor carefully the ForEx, but I would like to ask CFO to speak about the approach that we are taking about the ForEx.
Sure. Thank you for the question. Obviously, when we made this revision estimate a few days ago, we -- the yen was still comfortably at JPY 155. So I think the last day or 2, it moved quite a bit. So of course, as we mentioned before, each year movement does have some impact to us. This is both positive and negative. So we're going to keep that very much into consideration.
Going forward, obviously, as we said before, we prefer more stable and less volatility. But if the interest rate changed quite a bit, then it could change. And then we will, of course, see how things go and update as necessary. But currently, we do think even with the JPY 153 or JPY 154 or JPY 152, I think, right now, it's still achievable with this current estimate. We do have enough room to still manage with this level. So I think that's your question, mainly. That's the answer.
We move on to the next question. It's from Asahi Shimbun, [ Nishiyama-san ], please.
[Interpreted] [ Nishiyama ], Asahi Newspaper. From my part, I have a question regarding the situation in China. The car market in China, particularly for sales of Japanese cars. Nippon Steel has -- is going to reduce the steel production in China. And also there is an uncertainty involving other suppliers as well.
And other manufacturers as well in China, they are considering or restructuring production capacity in China. Now for Nissan, regarding the growth potential of Chinese market, what is your view? And in line with the assessment, the recently closed Changzhou factory, is there any more possibility of closing factories in addition?
[Interpreted] Thank you very much for your question. Regarding Chinese market, it is very challenging situation currently. Last year, I talked about this briefly, but local OEMs, NEVs are being launched. Every 3 months, they are increasing the launches of new vehicles, new energy vehicles, I mean.
And also, as I showed you earlier, on that part, we are fighting as international brands. TIV for international brands, unfortunately, it has come down by 15% year-on-year. And our selling price is still struggling. We are having excessive competition. So we have heard those news you mentioned. Now going forward in China, how are we going to address this market.
Now on our part, as Nissan, we -- our Nissan customers, we have about 7 million customers there. And in such a situation, ICE cars demand is still high. Therefore, we are going to deliver Nissan brands to our customers. As we mentioned earlier, Beijing Motor Show, we announced 4 NEV cars. So we are going to launch these new energy vehicles, definitely. However, we cannot be optimistic.
There's a lot of uncertainty and lack of transparency in the market. Therefore, the fixed cost has to be optimized. We are having a good discussion with our partners in order to reduce fixed costs. Now on this front, we have to watch the situation closely. And every 3 months, I visit China. So I have good discussion with our partners there in China.
And the momentum of Nissan ICE gasoline cars, and we would like to create this momentum for the launch of new cars. Now we are going to maintain the current momentum. That is what we can do now. However, going forward, locally developed and locally produced NEVs, they are going to lead to the growth of our company in China. And we are going to do that thoroughly together with our partners there.
Now in such a situation and the market situation is changing very, very rapidly in China, particularly. Therefore, we -- have to align our company business to the current market situation. I think that is the best way to express our view. So going forward, I cannot definitely say that we are okay in Chinese market. But at least we would like to deliver our Nissan brand's value to our customers there. That is what we would like to achieve in the latter half of the year.
Move on to the next question from Toyo Keizai, [ Hata-san ]. [ Hata-san ], please. [ Hata-san ] Toyo Keizai, can you hear us?
[Interpreted] Your microphone is on mute. We don't hear you. But do you hear us?
[ Hata-san ], can you switch on your mic, please?
[Foreign Language]
[Interpreted] Okay. We do hear you now.
[Interpreted] Excuse me. U.S. operation, why isn't the profit good? Up till today, if you look at the incentive Ariya, Ultima, Sentra, in 1 year, you have increased largely the spending. It's much higher than the competitors now. I'm talking of incentives. Because of the reflection of the past, you have been controlling the incentive in U.S., but now why is it sharply increasing?
And hybrid is -- there is a shift of demand to hybrid, and Nissan does not have any hybrid in the lineup. Maybe this is one of the reasons. But you have e-POWER. Do you have a plan to introduce e-POWER in the early stage?
Incentive. Policy on the incentive, we are at the industrial average, when it comes to incentive spending. In order to maintain quality of sales, most of the incentives are allocated for -- rather than cash, but subsidy for the loan of the customers. Sales -- this will go through the sales financing, captive finance. This is how we are protecting the residual value.
So rather than cash incentive, we are allocating the spending to help the loan of the customers so that we can maintain a certain level of resale value. So it's not that we are spending cash incentive. That's how we are using the incentive as of today. And by model. Yes, as you said, Rogue. For Rogue, because of the switch over of the model year, we spend additional incentives.
That's a fact, but the rest, as I mentioned, affordable model, Sentra, Kicks as well as the Altima, which is on top. For these models, we are making sure that we are gradually increasing the shares. So what are successful -- by taking necessary measures, affordable models, market share, segment share are increasing month-over-month between April and June.
But what's not working is the switch over, the model here, which is Rogue, where we see an increase in the inventories and 2020 for a model year transition, where we were unable to boost the volume as expected. If you look at Rogue alone, in Q4 of last year, we sold 90,000 units or close to 90,000 units. But for Q1, it came down to 50,000 units.
So these are largely impacting the profitability of Nissan and resulted in the additional incentive spending. And we are unable to optimize inventories yet. So in the first half, throughout the first half, optimizing the inventories will make us ready for the upcoming new model introduction. So we have to do this right. This is the immediate challenge. You mentioned earlier, hybrid, we don't have a hybrid. As I said in the Arc Business Plan, plug-in hybrid is under discussion. We cannot tell you when, but we have a plan to reinforce our lineup in North America.
The next question is from [ Mukoyama-san ], Yomiuri Shimbun.
[Interpreted] Yes. This is [ Mukoyama ]from Yomiuri Shimbun. Yes, do you hear me?
[Interpreted] Yes, we do.
[Interpreted] My question is as follows: the government in May. SEV, next-generation strategy was built. This new strategy is demonstrated by the government. So SEV, especially software aspect and the OS commonization, what's your approach to this domain? You are doing a feasibility study of the partnership with Honda today and some for OS. Honda -- do you have -- we hear that you have a consideration of commonization OS with Honda. What's your approach here?
[Interpreted] With regards to the feasibility study with Honda, I would like to do a communication when we are ready. So I would not touch upon it today. But as you indicated, this domain, auto industry, this is my personal insight as well, in the future, we want to provide various services to the customers, so we would like to align the specifications in the areas where we can collaborate.
This is the industrial approach because this will help optimize the entire operation. Each OEM, for example, at Nissan, it's about the long-distance future. As we showed in the Japan Mobility show, in order to realize the concept cars, software aspect and the platform, these domains should be worked on.
And Chinese makes are putting a lot of efforts in this domain. So in one sense, this will be more than what we imagined. This is what the customers will look for much faster than we anticipated. So we should be ready. That's the direction that we are pursuing. Excuse me, it sounds fuzzy, but that's what I can say today.
As we are coming to the end of the session, we'd like to take just one last question. It is from NHK, [ Obi-san ]. [ Obi-san ], please.
[Interpreted] NHK, [ Obi ] speaking.
[Interpreted] Yes, go ahead.
Do you hear me?
[Interpreted] Yes, we do. Go ahead.
[Interpreted] Okay. This is related to the earlier question. Feasibility study with Honda. This is under discussion. That's what I understand. Where are you today with this negotiation? And Uchida-san, you are also involved in the discussion, I believe. So how are you discussing to collaborate? And the first, when will you communicate the first round? What's the visibility to the extent that you can disclose?
[Interpreted] As I said back in March, on March 15, was it? We made a joint press conference with [ Mida-san ], onboard software platform, battery EVERY-related core components. These are what we talked about and the product complementarity. These are the areas that we are discussing with Honda.
Concrete, we are in the stage of concrete discussion in terms of progress. Content wise, when the time comes, we will be ready to communicate. Last time, we said that it will come around summer. It's already summer. So it's very difficult to explain. But around summer, as I said, that's a visibility.
So for progress, the top executives of the both companies are involved in discussion and all the Gemba people are also involved in the serious discussion. And we are discovering the strength of each other and exploring variety of possibilities of collaboration.
So the discussion is deepening between the 2 companies. Therefore, my impression is as follows. It has been 4 months plus since March. We are making a good progress so far. So we would like to create an occasion where we can communicate about it when we are ready.
With that, we will conclude today's session. Thank you, Uchida-san. Thank you, Ma-san. Once again, thank you for joining us. If you have any further questions, please do direct it to Nissan Communications Team. Have a good day.