Advantest Corp
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Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2021-Q3

from 0
Operator

Thank you for attending the earnings conference call of Advantest Corporation for Fiscal 2020 Third Quarter Ended December 31, 2020. Participants from Advantest are, Yoshiaki Yoshida, President and CEO; Atsushi Fujita, CFO; Kimiya Sakamoto, Executive Vice President of Sales Group; and Yasuo Mihashi, Executive Vice President of Corporate Planning and Stakeholder Relations.

First, CFO, Fujita, will go over the financial results for the third quarter, followed by a presentation on the fiscal 2020 outlook by CEO, Yoshida. We will then take your questions. The entire conference call is scheduled for an hour.

Materials are available from TDNet as well as the company website. Before we start, a cautionary statement. This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on the company's current expectations, estimates and projections. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the company's actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied.

Without further ado, CFO, Fujita.

A
Atsushi Fujita
executive

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. This is Fujita speaking. I will go over the results for the third quarter. Please turn to Slide 4. First of all, we would like to express profound gratitude to our suppliers, other business partners and employees who all continue to support Advantest's business amidst the second wave and the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Business results for the October-December period exceeded our prediction made in October. SoC semiconductor demand from the high-performance computing, or HPC, and smartphone sectors was strong. And our business environment improved faster than was expected 3 months ago.

Supported by these trends, the third quarter SoC tester orders as well as overall orders reached new quarterly records. Sales and profits also exceeded expectations. Orders, sales and profits will be explained in detail in the following slides.

Next slide, please. The third quarter orders by segment. First, Semiconductor and Component Test Systems, up 49.3% quarter-on-quarter at JPY 66.8 billion. SoC tester orders reached JPY 54.2 billion, an increase of JPY 18.4 billion from the previous quarter. Display driver ICs or DDI, principally drove the orders, against the background of the increasing adoption of OLEDs in 5G smartphones and the increasing incorporation of touch sensors into DDI. Demand for application processors for 5G smartphones also grew more than expected, helping to eliminate the surplus of testers in the supply chain affected by the U.S.-China trade friction and generating new investments. Orders of the Memory testers by Chinese players increased by JPY 3.6 billion from the previous quarter.

Next, Mechatronics Systems, up 29.8% quarter-on-quarter at JPY 11.8 billion. EUV related demand drove higher nanotechnology product orders. Services, Support and Others, up 61.8% quarter-on-quarter at JPY 16.5 billion. In addition to a seasonal increase in annual maintenance contract renewals, system-level test-related orders increased.

Next slide. This slide is about Q3 sales by segment. Semiconductor and Component Test System sales increased by 9.8% quarter-on-quarter to JPY 52.3 billion. Sales breakdowns are JPY 39.3 billion for SoC testers and JPY 13.0 billion for Memory testers. Smartphone-related products, especially DDI and image sensors were the driving force behind the increase in SoC tester sales, sales of Memory testers decreased due to a decline in orders in Q2.

Mechatronics Systems sales decreased 15.4% quarter-on-quarter to JPY 9.7 billion. Sales of test handlers and device interfaces fell in line with the decline in sales of Memory testers. Sales of Services, Support and Others declined by 11.0% quarter-on-quarter to JPY 16.3 billion. Q3 sales of system-level test products decreased in reaction to stronger momentum in the first half, but remained in line with our expectations.

Please turn to the next page. Q3 orders by region is shown by the graph on the left. In Taiwan and China, smartphone-related SoC tester inquiries rose mainly for DDI testers. In South Korea, orders declined in reaction to high SoC tester orders in Q2. The graph on the right shows Q3 sales by region. In China, sales of SoC testers for DDI and other applications expanded. In Americas, system-level test sales cooled off.

Please turn to the next page. This slide is about profit. Gross margin was 51.5%. In our sales mix, highly profitable products decreased from that of the previous quarter and some Q3 system-level test sales were offset by costs associated with the launch of new products, resulting in the gross margin decline. We expect gross margin to improve in Q4. SG&A, including total other income and expenses, was JPY 24.9 billion. SG&A expenses were flat quarter-on-quarter. Operating income was JPY 15.3 billion, and operating margin was 19.5%.

Please turn to the next page. This is about R&D and other expenses in Q3. R&D expenses was JPY 10.4 billion. R&D to sales ratio was 13.4%. CapEx was JPY 3.4 billion. Depreciation and amortization was JPY 3.1 billion. As for cash flow in Q3, free cash flow was JPY 700 million. Operating cash flow did not grow in Q3 because sales concentrated near the end of the quarter.

Please turn to the next page. This is balance sheet. Total assets was JPY 362.7 billion. Cash and cash equivalents were JPY 111.5 billion, down JPY 7.5 billion from the end of the previous quarter. Equity attributable to owners of the parent was JPY 238.7 billion, and its ratio was up 0.6 points from the end of the previous quarter to 65.8%. The share buyback announced in July was completed in October 30. A total of 2.49 million shares were acquired at a total cost of JPY 13.1 billion.

That is all for the explanation of the financial results of Q3. Thank you.

Y
Yoshiaki Yoshida
executive

This is Yoshida speaking. I will present the fiscal 2020 outlook. Please turn to Slide 12. First, semiconductor tester market trends. 6 months ago, we warned that surplus test capacity generated by the tightening of U.S. regulations on a major Chinese player could significantly reduce demand for testers. However, test demand for HPC has continued to be strong. North American smartphone-related test demand has been higher than expected. And competition for market share among Chinese smartphone makers has hastened the elimination of surplus testers from the supply chain. Reflecting these market changes, we have raised our calendar year 2020 SoC tester market estimate to approximately $2.8 billion.

With regard to surplus testers, OSAT investment is now at normal levels. The SoC tester market is expected to continue growing in calendar year 2021, amid demand ranging broadly across various sectors, including 5G smartphones and HPC, where an increasing number of products use advanced process semiconductors and DDI products, which are gaining functionality.

Based on our own performance, we estimate that the calendar year 2020 Memory tester market came in at about $1.1 billion. Calendar year 2021 is expected to see further expansion of tester demand due to process strengths, greater device density, higher device speeds and broader bandwidth. We continue to pay close attention to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and will respond swiftly to market changes while striving to maintain and expand our market share.

Slide 13. Fiscal 2020 forecast. Based on our results through the third quarter and our forecast for the fourth quarter, we have again revised our full year forecast. Our orders forecast has been raised by JPY 50 billion and our sales forecast has been raised by JPY 30 billion compared to our October forecast, respectively. This would represent record high orders and sales with sales in the JPY 300 billion range. Our operating income and net income forecast have been raised by JPY 14.5 billion and JPY 19 billion, respectively, compared to our October forecast.

In addition, our fourth quarter quarterly net income forecast takes into account the recording of deferred tax assets in anticipation of future tax reduction effects. Until now, Advantest's effective tax rate has been low due to the tax reduction effect of using a loss carryforward accounting adjustment. But the balance of the losses that were carried over is expected to be consumed this year. Thus, our effective tax rate from the next fiscal year onwards is expected to be in the mid-20% range.

Our full year forecast is based on exchange rate assumptions of JPY 106 to the dollar and JPY 122 to the euro. Our gross profit margin for the full year is forecast to be about 54%, unchanged from October. Due to the revision of our European subsidiaries pension plan, a liquidation profit of approximately EUR 25 million has been incorporated into our operating income forecast for the fourth quarter. Well, it's not shown in the slide. Based on these forecasts, year-end dividend is currently forecast to be JPY 57 per share. Added with interim dividend of JPY 38, dividend for the year is forecast to be JPY 95, JPY 13 higher than for fiscal 2019.

Starting with Slide 14, forecast by business segment. Our full year sales forecast for SoC testers has been raised by JPY 23 billion from our October forecast, at JPY 140 billion. In addition to firm test demand for HPC, smartphone-related test investment is currently vibrant, and this favorable environment is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. On top of the ongoing boom in smartphone and HPC-related demand, there are expectations for the recovery of test demand across broader areas including DDIs and analog ICs in calendar year 2021. We are building out our supply system in preparation for future expansion of SoC tester demand.

Page 15 is about Memory testers outlook. Memory tester sales are trending above the previous fiscal year's level, supported by growth in demand for server memory linked to data center investment. We have also revised this forecast upward by JPY 4 billion in light of confirmed investments by Chinese memory companies in the second half. As explained in our market outlook, the industry is seeking to deliver further miniaturization, greater density, higher frequency speed and broader bandwidth. In addition, memory makers are currently positive about increasing production, and we expect strong inquiries for both DRAM and NAND testers in Q4.

Page 16 is about Mechatronics; Services, Support and Others business outlook. For our Mechatronics-related business, we forecast sales of JPY 40.0 billion for the current fiscal year. This forecast has been revised upward by JPY 2.0 billion, in line with the upward revision of our Memory tester sales forecast. In Services, Support and Others, system-level test products performed better than expected. Taking this into account, we have raised this segment sales forecast to JPY 64.5 billion, an increase of JPY 1.5 billion compared to our October forecast. This is due to an increase in demand for SoC-related system-level test products with increased investment in data centers and smartphone performance gains.

Let me move on to the next page. Page 17 for summary. In calendar year 2020, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic depressed the world economy from the beginning of the year, but at the same time, associated lifestyle changes have boosted demand for semiconductors. The semiconductor tester market has expanded due to work-from-home-related demand, active investment in data centers and continuous improvement in the performance of semiconductors for smartphones and other products.

The problem of surplus SoC tester capacity, which was a concern in the summer due to the intensifying conflict between United States and China, was resolved sooner than we expected as intense competition among smartphone makers accelerated the restructuring of the supply chain. The full-scale adoption of 5G is yet to come, and we can expect steady growth in the future. Based on Q3 results, which exceeded our prediction and the brighter Q4 outlook, we have raised our full year orders forecast by JPY 50.0 billion and a sales forecast by JPY 30.0 billion. Both orders and sales reached JPY 300 billion range for the first time in history, achievement of all the numerical targets set on the current midterm management plan is now in sight.

It seems that it will take some time before the COVID-19 pandemic comes to an end, and it is difficult to predict when the global economy will recover. But we expect that robust semiconductor demand and aggressive device performance improvements will continue, and we predict that demand for both SoC and Memory testers will continue to grow in 2021. We are currently formulating our next midterm management plan to be launched next fiscal year, but we expect that its first year will be a good start for us.

There's still a considerable risk that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to lockdowns or affect factory operations. This may impact our component procurement and production systems to meet increasing customer demand. We will take careful measures to ensure an uninterrupted supply of products and services to our customers as we continue to care the health of our group employees.

This is the last page, Page 18. For your reference, we have listed some examples of our ESG initiatives and external evaluation since August. We are aware that continuously increasing burden on the health care workers worldwide to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Advantest Group companies in each region have dominated to those medical organizations in order to support their life-saving activities.

Lastly, I'd like to express our deepest gratitude to the health care workers who are working so hard every day and the suppliers who support our manufacturing system in this pandemic. Also, despite the business environment changed rapidly in 2020, we could adapt to changes and achieve good performance results. We owe this to our employees who diligently carry out their duties by collaborating with global sites. I'd like to express our gratitude to them and their families for their support. That is all from me.

Operator

First questioner is Mr. Wadaki from Nomura Securities.

T
Tetsuya Wadaki
analyst

Wadaki from Nomura Securities. Thank you for the very strong and encouraging earnings presentation. My first question, the high-tech stock prices are plummeting very rapidly. The reason being a comment from a certain semiconductor manufacturing devices manufacturer that it is sensing a pause in inquiries. Do you share that same observation? As far as smartphones are concerned, true, there is an obvious overproduction. So I suspect there will be a pause eventually. So what is your take on this matter?

U
Unknown Executive

First, it's hard to define what that company means by a pause. As far as Advantest is concerned, as you know, in July, there was a situation, which was referred to by some people as Advantest shop. The strong third quarter that we experienced was driven by an upward trend starting in October, December being the highest during the third quarter.

Would this trend discontinue in the fourth quarter? Actually, we expect orders to remain strong. So rather than a pause, we feel that strong business is continuing. Having said that, I think it is true that the COVID-19 situation is accelerating the drive for digital transformation. When this acceleration becomes excessive, there naturally will be a correction. But that is not likely over a near term, like 3 months or 6 months from now, but a bit further than that. Partly in light of stimulus packages implemented in different parts of the world.

T
Tetsuya Wadaki
analyst

My second question. At the last earnings call, you said that your share, vis-Ă -vis smartphone manufacturers that are increasing production, is smaller than your share within manufacturers that no longer can produce smartphones, such as Huawei or HiSilicon. And that due to such competitive factors, your earnings momentum lags behind your competitors. Now you have made an upward revision to your full year guidance this time around. Is that due to market factor or shifts in particular market shares?

U
Unknown Executive

It's really not a shift in our particular market shares. The way the major U.S. smartphone company operates in terms of investment is that investment activities will be completed more or less by summer. Our market share remains high even with that completion. This is probably because of fairly strong demand continuing elsewhere. So on a customer-by-customer basis, I think the market share situation remains almost the same. As for supplying into the Chinese market, our market share is fairly high. In terms of smartphone demand in China and other markets, we are maintaining our share pretty well. I doubt there was a sudden shift in our market share of individual customers.

T
Tetsuya Wadaki
analyst

I see so I take it that display driver ICs and image sensors that were mentioned earlier, are supporting your market share. Correct?

U
Unknown Executive

Yes. As for display driver ICs, we have much large market share. So the expansion of the market itself is one factor that makes our orders appear strong. But the way we see it, the overall business is strong, including non-DDI products, such as application processors and CMOS image sensors.

Operator

The next questioner is Mr. Nakamura from Goldman Sachs, Japan.

S
Shuhei Nakamura
analyst

Nakamura from Goldman Sachs Japan. I have 2 questions. One is on the outlook of the SoC tester market. You have made an upward revision to the 2020 outlook. As always, can you give us the breakdown by 3 application areas? I'm particularly interested in what specific areas are expected to grow over the last 3 months of the fiscal year? You did mention driver ICs and others. But can you touch upon the qualitative aspect as well?

U
Unknown Executive

Sakamoto will take that question.

K
Kimiya Sakamoto
executive

As was mentioned earlier, we raised the order forecast by JPY 50 billion, of which JPY 30 billion is in the third quarter and JPY 20 billion in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, SoC testers accounted for 80% of that upside. So the majority was SoC testers driven by DDIs. And of the JPY 20 billion in the fourth quarter, SoC accounts for 50%. Under these circumstances, we increased the forecast of the size of total addressable market TAM, with increase in 5G and smartphone-related amounting to $100 million.

U
Unknown Executive

Mr. Nakamura, I take it that you are interested in the segment breakdown of SoC testers, correct?

S
Shuhei Nakamura
analyst

Yes, that is correct.

U
Unknown Executive

Then it's computer, communication, 70%; automotive, industrial and consumer, 30%; and display drivers, a few percent. That will be the market breakdown.

S
Shuhei Nakamura
analyst

I see. So is it fair to say that the market outlook has been revised upward by $100 million. Most of which comes from upward revision for the display driver ICs. And accordingly, the upward revision in your order forecast for the third and fourth quarters, is also attributable to display driver ICs. Am I correct?

K
Kimiya Sakamoto
executive

This is Sakamoto speaking. Let me clarify. JPY 100 million revision for TAM is in relation to HPC and AI-related. The increase in the third quarter orders that was mentioned earlier, was largely driven by display driver ICs.

S
Shuhei Nakamura
analyst

I see. My next question is on the outlook for the 2021. For SoC testers and Memory testers, respectively. You have shared your outlook. Can you describe where you expect growth in terms of application areas? Also, I think from 2020 to 2021, we can expect a recovery in your market share in SoC testers. So can you give us your sense on that?

U
Unknown Executive

For 2021, the driver will be HPC with continued progress in investments in advanced node processors. We also expect CIS to grow significantly, on a calendar year basis. In terms of growth rate, DDI growth is expected to be very large. Since we command a high market share here, we want to make sure we capture that growth in our business. As for Memory testers, as was mentioned by CEO, Yoshida, we expect a similar level as in 2020 at minimum with a possible increase of around JPY 200 million. So we expect growth primarily driven by DRAM and NAND front-end process testers.

S
Shuhei Nakamura
analyst

I see. On SoC, earlier, you said that the backdrop of the current order growth is the market share competition amongst smartphone manufacturers. So with that in mind, do you feel that there will be a further growth in 2021? Or has part of that expected growth already materialized?

U
Unknown Executive

Order levels are very high for the third and fourth quarters. There could be some ups and downs on a quarterly basis, of course, but our conversation with our customers does not indicate or suggest any signs of slowdown. So we expect a strong trend to be sustained.

Operator

The next questioner is Mr. Hirakawa from BofA Securities, Japan.

M
Mikio Hirakawa
analyst

Hirakawa from BofA Securities. I have a couple of questions. First is on the gross margin. You said the gross margin in the third quarter stayed low at 51.5% due to unfavorable SoC product mix. What factors give you the confidence in recovery in the fourth quarter? More specifically, can you give us the assumptions for the fourth quarter gross margin? Is it that product mix does not change much between the third and fourth quarters. But as new system-level test products that existed in the third quarter will no longer be a factor in the fourth quarter, and that is going to make a difference, which is the case? That's my first question.

A
Atsushi Fujita
executive

This is Fujita speaking. In the full year guidance, we are reflecting the cost of sales assumption in the fourth quarter forecast. As you have correctly described, those with better profitability in terms of cost is to account for a larger proportion of sales. And as such, we expect a recovery in the fourth quarter over the third quarter.

M
Mikio Hirakawa
analyst

I hesitate to ask the specifics. But while those with better profitability is to account for a larger proportion, new system-level testing products mentioned as low profitability items. Would that be the biggest factor? Or is it that even among SoC testers?

U
Unknown Executive

The proportion of low profitability items is going to go down while high profitability items for application processors are going to go up.

One of the reasons for deterioration in cost of sales rates in the third quarter was that cost of system-level test product worsened with some cost accrual taking place in advance in the third quarter. So in the absence of that in the fourth quarter, we expect an improvement. The impact of the improvement in system-level test is not that significant. Overall, I think you can safely assume that the improvement in product mix is making a difference in gross margin.

M
Mikio Hirakawa
analyst

I see. My next question what is your current view on system-level test market size, calendar year 2020 versus calendar year 2021?

Y
Yasuo Mihashi
executive

This is Mihashi speaking. We are frequently asked about the SLT market size, to which our response always is, it's hard to design, and therefore, we can't answer clearly.

M
Mikio Hirakawa
analyst

I apologize for asking the same question over and over.

Y
Yasuo Mihashi
executive

Honestly, there is really nothing that we can say at the current moment as to the size of the SLT market.

M
Mikio Hirakawa
analyst

Let me rephrase the question. In terms of TAM or in terms of the market that you are looking at, do you have any thoughts on what the market size is going forward?

U
Unknown Executive

Please hold on. As for the market size, we are seeing increasing opportunities to talk with our customers. So the size is growing. The market size is growing, obviously. However, making growth a reality requires iterative conversations with each customer individually. So we are unlikely to see major growth. But our impression is that demand in 2021 will be on par with that of 2020 or slightly higher.

Operator

The next questioner is Mr. Sugiura from Daiwa Securities.

T
Toru Sugiura
analyst

Sugiura from Daiwa Securities. I have 2 questions. First is, I'm sorry to say, again, on SoC tester market outlook. For 2021, you are showing a range, the lower limit being flat year-on-year. Previously, when we asked for your qualitative comment, I believe your response had a more bullish tone. So this time around, what kind of risk do you have in mind in predicting a flat market growth?

U
Unknown Executive

First, let me point out the fact that the business significantly grew from 2019 to 2020 despite we did not expect such growth. Investment by major U.S. smartphone companies contributed this growth and this increased TAM. As for 2021, our assumption is, while investment from such major U.S. smartphone companies will slow down, but overall market will grow due to increasing demand for other testers. This means there is a chance for us to recover our market share in 2021, which decreased in calendar year 2020. In that sense, our SoC testers can be expected to grow higher than the growth of TAM.

T
Toru Sugiura
analyst

Thank you for your clear explanation. My second question is about building up your production capabilities explained in the presentation. I suppose you mentioned this on SoC testers, and I need to ask a follow-up question about it. Can I assume your production system is already getting tight? And as you're going to build up your production system, are there any additional expenses expected for next fiscal year, including CapEx? I appreciate your comments on it.

U
Unknown Executive

First of all, we have both outsourcing and in-house production for SoC testers. And in the third wave of COVID-19, for instance, in Malaysia, a strict regulation was imposed at the beginning of this year. Therefore, we are considering the prepared proper production system as our BCP, or business continuity planning so that we do not have to depend solely on outsourcing partners, but this does not require CapEx.

Regarding production in Japan, now all are saying that semiconductors are in shortage. And in our case, testers need components such as semiconductors and other electronics products. And it is true that supply of those components is getting more and more tight. Under such a circumstance, orders are increasing significantly. And we need fine-tuned management to fulfill all of these orders and minimize risks of delayed delivery to our customers. Such potential risks are contained by our daily efforts. However, if COVID-19 situation gets worsened or any bottlenecks are generated in the global supply chain, we assume there is a risk, this affects other areas. In that sense, we will secure system to supply properly.

As I said before, our idea is not to expand our own factories for production, rather, we will manage outsourcing partners properly. And we do not consider additional capital investment here.

CapEx investment has increased slightly for this year, but this does not mean to build new factories. This is to be used for other facilities to develop new customers or to own our testers in our facilities. Therefore, we do not estimate much CapEx for production increase.

Operator

Next, Mr. Yoshida from CLSA.

Y
Yu Yoshida
analyst

Can you hear me?

U
Unknown Executive

Yes.

Y
Yu Yoshida
analyst

My first question is about your outlook on orders. Based on my calculation with the revised full year forecast, it seems Q4 order will decrease from Q3. Could you tell us what direction you expect about orders by product type? Also, according to the earlier explanation, Q3 performance got better towards the end and the good performance still continues. And if that is the case, I assume you take some potential risks into consideration in this decline in Q4. I want to know about it as well.

U
Unknown Executive

Thank you for your question. Q4 order is estimated to be nearly JPY 90 billion. And this is less than Q3, but we consider this is still at a high level. The quarter-on-quarter difference is due to the decrease in DDI-related orders following the extremely high demand for DDI in Q3.

Y
Yu Yoshida
analyst

Do you mean demand for DDI is expected to decrease slightly in Q4?

U
Unknown Executive

Yes, the decrease is in reaction to the high demand for DDI in Q3.

Y
Yu Yoshida
analyst

And other areas are expected to have flat growth, basically, correct?

U
Unknown Executive

Yes, we estimate flat growth for computer communications, automotive and industrial machinery.

Y
Yu Yoshida
analyst

I have a follow-up question about automotive and industrial machinery. It seems automotive does not have much orders at this moment, but are there any new inquiries? Earlier, you did not mention much about recovery in automotive, when you talked about SoC tester market outlook. Can you tell me your outlook in this area?

U
Unknown Executive

A lot of news are going on about automotive business and testing utilization rates among our automotive customers have risen sharply, and we are receiving new inquiries. Having said that, in quarter-on-quarter comparison, its growth is still limited compared to HPC and smartphone-related businesses. Still for 2021, customers are increasing inquiries in consideration of production growth, and we have confidence for the year.

Y
Yu Yoshida
analyst

In that sense, do you mean it is possible that orders for automotive application becomes stronger, although it was not mentioned in the earlier explanation?

U
Unknown Executive

Yes, 2021 will be surely stronger than 2020.

Y
Yu Yoshida
analyst

I see. Here's my second question. I hear an MPU manufacturer is considering to outsource production to foundries. I think this company was one our customer but switched to in-house made customized testers. Do you think it is possible to get back your business with the company as a result of their outsourcing to foundries?

U
Unknown Executive

We refrain from commenting on an individual company. So we cannot make any comment. To be honest, we do not have enough information to comment at this moment.

Y
Yu Yoshida
analyst

Do you think if you can have business with the company, it could benefit HPC business more than your current estimate?

U
Unknown Executive

We have no idea. We don't know anything about the business flow, for instance, where they are going to perform testing. So we are not positioned to comment on it.

Operator

Next, Mr. Hasegawa from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley.

H
Hasegawa
analyst

I'm Hasegawa from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley. First, let me clarify your production system, in your integrated annual report, it is said, DX is the key. Can you elaborate more on this? And considering a substantial order backlog at present, is your production system is working properly enough to address such backlog? I appreciate if you explain about it. This is my first question.

U
Unknown Executive

Regarding our production system, we said, we forecast over JPY 80 billion sales for Q4. And if you quadruple the number, it will be JPY 320 billion. We believe our current production system is good enough to support such sales under ordinary circumstances. However, we have concerns explained today related to COVID-19. And we are not certain about how much impact is expected by the virus, such as lockdown or component procurement failures as a result of production suspension at factories due to a sudden surge of infection in a certain country. But we think we are okay, if there are no such major supply chain disruptions. But in reality, we faced the situation that the factory in Malaysia, which supplies SoC testers for us, suspended its operations for about a week at the beginning of this year.

Therefore, we are building a new production system in a German subsidiary so that it can take over the operations in other countries, if required. This is our BCP.

Also, the production system in Japan is well established to address any situations for products made in Japan, as long as we have enough component supply. Therefore, we are sure that we can address product sales over JPY 80 billion, even at present.

H
Hasegawa
analyst

Can I assume that capacity as well as production efficiency are improving substantially? Production efficiency of which location, mainly for domestic operations?

U
Unknown Executive

Are you asking if it is worsening due to COVID-19?

H
Hasegawa
analyst

No. I mean in terms of advances of manufacturing, you mentioned various strategies in the integrated annual report. So my question is, if you're improving not only operations, but also productivity at your domestic factories in terms of progress on DX initiatives?

U
Unknown Executive

Production costs and sales costs have not changed much. So It is difficult to say we have improved the efficiency. I think if you have visited our factory before that we have not introduced many advanced machines. But we started initiatives last year to improve production efficiency by using robot and various data.

Although it is not achieved in the current midterm management plan, we expect the factory production system will be much advanced in the next midterm management plan. So my answer is, our production efficiency is not worsened even with higher production volume, and we are making efforts to improve the efficiency.

H
Hasegawa
analyst

Okay, I'm clear. Let me ask my second question. I'm sorry to ask the same question every time, but what is the progress in data analysis solution business? I appreciate any update on it as long as you can disclose.

Y
Yasuo Mihashi
executive

I am Mihashi. You mean the business you're collaborating with PDF. Based on the development with PDF solutions announced earlier, we'll prepare cloud environment, which is the foundation to expand data in the future and put internal tools on it to start service deployment. With the current devices, such as the ones with 5-nanometer process node, data to be taken from semiconductor production process for analysis by customers have already exceeded 1 petabyte. That is the data volume expected.

And some obstacles still exist in various silos from semiconductor processing to device testing. We are trying to connect all of these silos to improve productivity by effective use of old data. And we are still in the preparation to build this framework.

H
Hasegawa
analyst

When the partnership was announced, I think I heard you already had started working for a customer. Are you facing more obstacles than you originally thought in this progress?

U
Unknown Executive

We are making progress in activities with the specific customer, but we do not set the goal of this initiative in those activities.

We are still a company mainly focused on hardware business. So we are trying to figure out what we can do as we discuss with various customers, to know how we should drive data, improve production efficiency or productivity, which are issues for customers and add value to improve time to cash.

Operator

Thank you very much. This is the end of the conference call. Thank you very much for your participation, and please make sure you disconnect the call.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]