Panasonic Holdings Corp
TSE:6752
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Panasonic Holdings Corp
Earnings Call Analysis
Q1-2025 Analysis
Panasonic Holdings Corp
In the first quarter of FY '25, Panasonic experienced a mixed bag in terms of financial performance. Sales increased by 5% year-on-year to JPY 2,121.7 billion, assisted by favorable currency translation effects. However, when adjusted for constant currency, sales actually fell by 2%. Unfortunately, the adjusted operating profit took a hit, decreasing to JPY 84.3 billion. Similarly, the operating profit decreased to JPY 83.8 billion, and net profit also declined to JPY 70.6 billion. The latter was primarily influenced by substantial onetime gains recorded in the previous fiscal year related to the liquidation of Panasonic Liquid Crystal Display.
Different segments of Panasonic reported varied performance. The Lifestyle segment saw declines in sales and profit due to lower sales of Air-to-Water Heat Pumps in Europe and consumer electronics in China. Despite higher sales in India, showcasing materials, and room air conditioners, they were not enough to offset the losses. The Automotive segment also took a hit due to discontinued production and reduced sales in China. Conversely, the Industry segment benefited significantly from increased sales of products for Generative AI servers, helping to increase profits despite some declines in Europe and China.
Panasonic's operational cash flow saw a slight increase year-on-year, amounting to JPY 228 billion. The company is focusing on generating further operating cash flows to maintain financial strength. They have chosen the transferable monetization method for most of the U.S. IRA tax credits applicable to FY '24, adding associated costs of JPY 5.5 billion. This decision accelerates the monetization of these credits by approximately two years earlier than initially planned.
Key challenges include sluggish consumer demand in China, reduced production by automotive manufacturers, and decreased sales in the automotive and lifestyle segments. However, Panasonic maintains an optimistic outlook for future quarters. The company expects sales, especially in segments like North American Energy due to adjustments for the IRA tax credits, to bounce back. Furthermore, the company's commitment to invest in strategic areas, including upcoming technological collaborations, is notable.
Exchange rates significantly impacted the financial results positively by JPY 6.8 billion, primarily in Industry and Energy sectors. Meanwhile, the net impact of raw materials and logistics prices increased expenses by JPY 12.4 billion. Panasonic has also taken measures like price revisions and rationalizations, which contributed an additional JPY 6 billion to the profits.
Panasonic continues to make strategic investments. For instance, they are enhancing their energy storage solutions for data centers driven by the Generative AI market. Additionally, Panasonic Connect's Projector business will be transferred to a newly established company, 80% owned by ORIX Corporation and 20% by Panasonic. The expected cash inflow from this transaction is JPY 118.5 billion, which will be channeled into further investments.
Despite the challenges, Panasonic retains its full-year guidance. They project that the forthcoming quarters will be stronger, potentially leading to positive cash flow even though certain costs like those related to the IRA tax credits might affect short-term performance. The long-term performance remains promising, especially given the strategic investments and collaborations aimed at leveraging technological advancements and expanding capabilities.
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Let me start the presentation on the consolidated financial results for the first quarter of FY '25, fiscal March 2025 ended June 30, 2024.
First, the summary, overall sales increased on increased sales in Connect and Industry as well as currency translation despite decreased sales in lifestyle, automotive and energy. Business, Industry, Energy had positive factors with favorable sales of Generative AI-related products. Lifestyle had negative factors with decreased sales of Air-to-Water Heat Pumps in Europe and consumer electronics in China. In-vehicle of energy, also had negative factors with demand at the Japan factory, continuing to decrease.
Adjusted operating profit decreased overall due to decreased profit in Lifestyle, Connect and Energy, despite increased profits in Automotive and Industry. Net profit decreased due mainly to recording of onetime gains in FY '24 with the liquidation of Panasonic Liquid Crystal Display.
Operating cash flow slightly increased year-on-year, and we will aim to generate further operating cash flows. Regarding the U.S. IRA inflation Reduction Act, we have decided to elect the transferable monetization method for most of the tax credit applicable to FY '24. Consequently, the associated cost is recorded in this first quarter. The timing of monetization is scheduled for during or after Q2, which is approximately 2 years ahead of our initial assumptions.
This slide describes the impact of the IRA tax credits on our financial results. For the first quarter, we assume to elect the refundable monetization method, which is the same accounting treatment and items as before. As mentioned earlier, we have decided to elect the transferable method for most of the tax credit applicable to FY '24. The details of such impact to the first quarter financial results are shown in the middle of this slide.
The impact amount to adjusted operating profit is JPY 16.2 billion, which includes the associated cost of JPY 5.5 billion. On a consolidated basis, sales increased year-on-year by 5% to JPY 2,121.7 billion. Sales on constant currency decreased by 2%. Adjusted operating profit decreased to JPY 84.3 billion, and operating profit decreased to JPY 83.8 billion. Net profit decreased to JPY 70.6 billion, due mainly to the impact of recording in FY '24 of onetime gains with liquidation of Panasonic Liquid Crystal Display as explained earlier.
This is the results by segment. In the following slides, you will see the year-on-year variance analysis of sales and operating profit. This is the sales analysis by segment. In Lifestyle, sales decreased due to lower sales of Air-to-Water in Europe and consumer electronics in China as well as lower sales for other segment products. Despite higher sales of such products as electrical construction materials in India, showcases and room air conditioners.
In Automotive, sales decreased due to discontinued production of certain models, sluggish sales in China and the impact of reduced production by car manufacturers. In Connect, sales increased in process automation, capturing the recovery tranche of smartphone demand in China as well as increased sales in Gemba Solutions and Avionics.
In Industry, sales increased with increased sales of products for Generative AI servers and ICT terminals despite decreased sales of industrial use relays in Europe and China. In Energy, sales in In-vehicle decreased. This is due to the continuing decrease in demand at the Japan factory as well as price revisions, reflecting lower raw material prices and others. Production in North America decreased in the first quarter, adapting to temporary production adjustment, but recovery there is now seen with an increased number of models eligible for IRA tax credit, so favorable sales is expected for Q2 onward.
Sales in Industrial/Consumer increased with favorable sales of energy storage systems for data centers driven by the generative AI market. Within Other, Elimination and adjustments, sales decreased for both Entertainment And Communication And Housing. This is the adjusted operating profit analysis by segment. In Lifestyle, Profit decreased due to decreased sales of Air-to-Water in Europe, consumer electronics in China and negative impact of exchange rates. Despite increased sales of electric construction materials in India, showcases, room air conditioners and others. In Automotive, profit increased due mainly to improved product mix and rationalization despite increased fixed cost and decreased sales. In Connect, profit decreased due to decreased sales of Media Entertainment, upfront investments in Avionics and increased strategic investments in Blue Yonder, despite increased sales of Process Automation and Gemba solutions.
In Industry, profit increased due to increased sales of products for generative AI servers, fixed cost reduction and effective yen depreciation. In Energy, profit in In-vehicle decreased, this is due to the impact of decreased production in Japan, increased ramp-up costs for the Wakayama and Kansas factories and recording of the cost of transfer monetization of our tax credit despite improved profitability of the North America factory due mainly to the rationalization of raw materials. Private and industrial consumer increased due to increased sales of energy storage system for data centers serving the generative AI market.
This shows the result of the Lifestyle by divisional company. In Living Appliances and Solutions Company, both sales and profit decreased largely affected by lower sales of consumer electronics in China due to market downturn. In Heating and Ventilation AC Company profit decreased largely affected by lower sales of Air-to-Water in Europe.
This shows our year-on-year operating profit analysis by sector. From the left, decreased profit on lower sales in real terms was a decrease factor of JPY 7.5 billion. Higher fixed cost was a decrease factor of JPY 16.9 billion. This is due mainly to the investments in Energy for the business growth as well as the impact of inflation. Net impact of raw materials and logistic prices was an increased factor of JPY 12.4 billion. The effect of the price revision, rationalization was also an increased factor of JPY 6 billion. Other individual factors, impact of IRA, including the cost of transfer/monetization was negative [ impact ] of JPY 6.5 billion. The breakdown of Blue Yonder is shown at the bottom right. Adjusted OP on a stand-alone basis decreased by JPY 2.3 billion, excluding ForEx impact due to increased strategic and synergy investment.
On a consolidated basis, adjusted OP decreased by JPY 2.8 billion. Excluding the impact of strategic and synergy investment, AOP increased by JPY 0.6 billion. ForEx impact was an increase factor of JPY 6.8 billion, mainly in Industry and Energy. As a result, adjusted OP decreased by JPY 8.5 billion. Operating profit decreased by JPY 6.6 billion.
This shows the cash flows and cash positions on the left of the 3 areas. Shown in blue are the changes, the supply -- excuse me. So looking at the cash flows and cash positions on the left, operating cash flows amounted to JPY 228 billion, a slight increase year-on-year. Going forward, we will continue to generate further operating cash flows. On the right, net cash was negative of JPY 451.6 billion. So this shows an update of the progress made in initiatives for our 3 investment areas, changes from the previous announcement as shown in blue, underlined in blue. There have not been many changes in Automotive Battery and Supply Chain Management software businesses. In Air Quality, and Air-Conditioning business, as I said earlier, our Air-to-Water business in Europe is facing persistent market slowdown. The graph at the bottom right shows the Air-to-Water sales trend since the Q1 of last year. In terms of sales amount and year-on-year change. As shown here, sales decreased significantly in Q3 last year. We have not been able to return to the recovery trend. However, in the long-term perspective, this market is expected to expand. Therefore, in preparation for future market recovery, we will continue our efforts to enhance our competitiveness through collaborations with such companies as INNOVA and tado.
Finally, I'd like to explain the strategic capital partnership and establishment of a new company regarding Panasonic Connect's Projector business and related operations announced today. This transaction is to further grow the Projector business. The new company will be established based upon the media entertainment business division of Panasonic Connect, in which ORIX Corporation will hold 80% of your shares and Panasonic Connect 20%. Through this partnership, we aim for further growth by leveraging Panasonic Connect's technological expertise and customer base as well as ORIX investment capability, along with the knowledge and experience cultivated through investments in numerous companies, including manufacturing and large corporations.
In addition, this partnership enables continuous R&D investments in hardware technologies as well as execution of inorganic growth strategies such as formulating growth strategic -- global strategic alliances. The transfer price is JPY 118.5 billion, which will be allocated to Panasonic Connect's investment area.
Sales recorded in FY '24 for the business subject to transaction was about JPY 77 billion. That concludes my presentation. Thank you for your attention.
The first question is [indiscernible] U.K. Newspaper.
[indiscernible] from U.K. I hope you can hear me.
Yes, we can.
My first question. This is related to the news release today or the news item today. The Bank of Japan decided to increase the interest rate, which would most probably impact your policies regarding the assumed interest rates as well as the investment environment. So wonder if you can comment on any possible changes to your policies going forward, financing policy.
My second question is in relation to the Projector business. I understand the new company will be established. 80% owned by ORIX, 20% by Panasonic Connect. In the case of Automotive transfer, the partnership form was with some of the shares being held by Panasonic. Are you going to continue with this approach going forward with possible transfer of business going forward?
Thank you for your questions. First, the Bank of Japan today announced 0.25% rate increase. Regarding this, it's just a matter of timing. In any areas affected by interest rates, I think this is only natural. We are basically financing through yen, and the yen financial costs should go up. But in the meantime, our profitability approach will be enhanced. So that we can deal solidly with the interest rates context. As for the real term interest, is much lower than the usual rates. And so interest rate difference between Japan and the U.S. will be carefully looked at. Japan and U.S. account for a large portion of our business, and therefore, we'll be looking at the interest rate environment in the 2 countries for financing and capital allocation. That's the answer to your first question.
The second question, the Projector business, 20% will be owned by Panasonic. The intent is, as I mentioned earlier in my presentation. Panasonic brand will continue to be used for some time and to assure our customers, we want to be solidly involved in the business. So there is a similar approach with Automotive. We do have a very good relationship with our customer base as well as in terms of expertise. And in the meantime, ORIX has its own strength. So both of our strengths will be leveraged so that the Projector business itself can grow going forward. So that is the intent of this arrangement. That is all.
We move on to the next question. From Bloomberg, we have [indiscernible]
This is [ Furukawa ], Bloomberg. On Page 2, IRA tax credit and the impact on your financial results, and you have chosen to have a transferable monetization. There is additional cost. Why did you use this method? I'd like to know the reason. It is 2 years earlier to get this capital. But for example, we are right in before the presidential election in the United States. So if that Trump becomes the President. There could be some concerns on IRA or you need some cash or capital urgently. So this JPY 5.5 billion cost of transfer and monetization. Is this for the FY '24 tax credit? This is the point of clarification on that.
Thank you for your questions. Initially or last year, we said that we would elect probably the refundable monetization. And we said that it would probably take a little more than 2 years. But at the same time, it just happens that we have to think about the counterparty and the economic rationale, I think we can find the good foundation or reason from the economic perspective. So based on that, we have chosen or elected to do the transferable monetization.
So as for the IRA or our funding situation, they are not related to this decision. So I think it's reasonable, economically to do this transferable monetization. So [ 5.5 ] additional costs for FY '24, we booked most of the tax credit, and it's -- for the most of the tax credits. Roughly speaking, so in terms of yen, I think there are some differences but about JPY 200 billion level. And that will be the account for [ 5.5 ], so it's about 3% per year in terms of cost.
And right now, in the United States, it's based upon the U.S. dollars and the interest rate in the United States is like 5.5% in terms of FF interest rate. So when it comes into the company, it's 10% or higher if you manage it or invest it for 2 years. So it's economically reasonable. So that's why we elected the transferable monetization.
We'll move to the next question. From Toyo Keizai, Maneki-san please.
Maneki from Toyo Keizai. I have 2 questions. First on IRA, a follow-up question, if I may. In terms of cash I understand that the timing of cash income is going to change for Q2 onward, maybe no impact on the profit and loss. But on cash flow, what will be the impact. And I understand that this monetization transferable is only for the tax credit for FY '24. Any changes for the ensuing years?
And my second question is relative to the overall financial results. I understand that many of the segments were suffering back in May, made -- you shared with us the assumptions. And I suppose that some of the results were worse than what you were assuming. So could you elaborate on that?
As for the refundable tax credit, for the second quarter, we are expecting the income. Although it's not certain. So what the impact is going to be -- I'm sorry, not refundable, but transferable that is. Now conventionally, for accounting treatment, we have been accounting for that. But in the operating cash flow, it is not incorporated whereas this time with the monetization in the operating cash flow, we should see an increase.
As for the use within our capital allocation policy, of course, we can't make distinctions amongst or the cash flow. But since this is the tax credits originating from the U.S. and therefore, the Kansas plant as well as the investment for [indiscernible] this would be the possible use.
For FY '25, the assumption of the guidance is the refundable tax credit, as explained during my presentation. As mentioned, our capital allocation is not the reason for that. There is a counterparty. And basically, we are assuming a refundable tax credit method for FY '25. So we are electing transferable for the FY '25 portion.
Now the overall results, the difference from our assumption. Well, by segment, there are ups and downs. Some weakness was observed in such areas as LAS, China -- appliances in China. The divisional company in China posted quite a bit of a decline in profit, impacted by the real estate market situation there. It is having an impact on the durable goods as well, more so than we had anticipated. That is one reason for the softening.
As for Air-to-Water on a year-on-year basis, you might be misled. But if you look at Page 10 in the investment areas on the lower right-hand side, you can see the bar graphs and the dotted line graph starting from Q1 of last fiscal year, from the second quarter, it declined, and in the Q3 of FY '24. And in the fourth quarter as well, we saw a flat or decline. And Q1 saw the biggest gap year-on-year. But -- as of now, this was within our assumption.
As for the second half of the fiscal year, we may have to revisit our projection. As for Automotive, reduction in the number of automobiles produced have been announced by our customers, OEMs. Still, we were able to secure profit, although sales suffered. So we are on par with our projection.
As for Connect, for Blue Yonder, as I explained in my presentation, we are making investments -- strategic investments for growth going forward. And in Avionics, investment is in the area of aircraft, the in-flight connections and we're making investments there. But overall, it is in line with our projection because we have been projecting investments to be made anyway.
And as for industry, the factory automation and Gemba or the Generative AI -- for Generative AI stronger than we had anticipated is our observation for factory automation, FA. We had been expecting a difficult year, and that remains unchanged. So in that sense, for industry, a bit better than our projection.
For energy. Number-wise, this week, we have to admit that, JPY 5.5 billion, the costs associated with the transfer that needs to be taken into consideration. But even excluding that PENA, the plant in North America, saw a decline -- slight decline in production volume. As I explained, the customer production line is modifying the line. And on a temporary basis, we are adjusting our production volume to accommodate that change. But for Q2 onwards, we are expecting to go back to the normal level. And the energy storage system for servers are also included in Energy, and that's doing better than we had anticipated. The onetime cost for the associated with the monetization and transfer. That is reflected in the overall figure. But given that the actual performance is stronger, more or less on a net basis, it's neutral. That is all. I hope that was helpful.
Next [indiscernible] from Yomiuri Shimbun Newspaper.
[indiscernible] of Yomiuri Shimbun. Two questions, please. First of all, about Automotive Batteries. In Nevada plant, you mentioned that. And so Nevada and Suminoe, what are the current status. And in the future, the market trend of the Automotive Battery, what is your view? And how do you respond to the changes in the market?
The second question is about the IRA, the transfer. The third party -- maybe you can just mention the region or the sector or industry of the third party, please?
Well, first of all, about the Automotive Battery plant, and as for the plant in the United States, as I said, there have been some adjustment of the production. So in terms of gigawatt or kilowatt, it's slightly down compared with last year. As for Suminoe Model S, X and the production situation of those models has been sluggish or plateau. It's trending at that level. So concerning that, the fixed cost reduction is something that we are trying to do and to find the new customer is also something that we are trying to do. So U.S. and Japan, both -- in both countries, we will be trying to develop our businesses. So as for the automotive battery trend, the future trend, and our view or globally, as you know EV is growing, but compared with the past, the growth rate has slowed down. But if you look -- you have to look at the different regions. So we are doing business basically in the United States, PENA plant and Suminoe that is in Japan. So that's all. So mostly, it is the plant in the United States.
So looking at the U.S. market, the growth or growth rate has slowed down or is more moderate than before. But steadily, the customer, the number is growing compared with the last year. So our capacity is being increased a little by little, and Kansas start-up for FY '27 or '28 with the current capacity that would not be sufficient, so we need to manufacture more. So that is our understanding. So in Q2 and onward, for our Automotive Battery business, it is mainly for U.S. market. So that's our view.
As for the IRA-related tax credit transfer, of course, we have to consider the counterparty, but this is the tax credit in the United States. So naturally, the company is an American company.
Next from [indiscernible] with Nikkan kogyo Shimbun.
[indiscernible] from Nikkan kogyo, hope you can hear me?
Yes.
Two questions, both related to IRA tax credit. First, the transfer for monetization. Investment to Kansas is what you mentioned, particularly, what will be the areas that you will be investing in? That's my first question.
My second question, a very detailed question, I'm afraid. With this transferable, this is for FY '24, you said most of the tax credit for FY '24 most meaning that some would remain in the form of refundable?
As mentioned earlier, first, it will come into our -- will come in as a cash. And since this is the U.S. tax credits, it will be used for the In-vehicle battery business in the U.S. It's hard to say which particular areas, but the state of Kansas is providing us with various subsidies but that's not enough to pay for everything needed for our factory. So in line with the intent of IRA, we would like to use in areas that will contribute to the energy savings. And most of the amount tax credit from FY '24 not all, but the most. The need, demand and supply is the reason for this. Now -- there are 3 forms of tax credit. One is the refundable, which we elected for which would be around 2 years before the actual payment is made after it's been filed -- tax filed.
The second is the deductible that is deductible from the income tax to be paid in the U.S. And the third is transferable. For monetization, there are 3 methods. And although the amount is small for the remaining portion, it will be used for deductible the taxes to be paid by our U.S. entities. That is all.
We are out of time for the Q&A session. So we would take just one more question from journalists. So last question from journalist Matsumoto-san from [indiscernible].
Matsumoto speaking. So about the future prospects, I have a question. So in the second half of this year, there will be a presidential election in the United States. So if there is a change of administration, how would that impact your business results in your view?
Well, U.S. election, we are not in a position to make any comments on that. What Trump is saying and what Democrats will -- the candidate Harris is saying, they are different from each other, and we understand. And this has already passed as a legislation. So the immediate impact would require the revision of the law and it would take time, and IRA is a wide-ranging legislation. And if you analyze the state that would benefit, I think many of them are Republican states. So when collection is over, we would respond accordingly. So Kansas, IRA, we made a decision without considering IRA and PENA Gigafactory is even older in terms of operation. So we are watching very closely but we would like to take appropriate response or measures. So there will be no immediate impact. We do not think. So thank you.
So that concludes the Q&A session for journalists. We'll now move to the Q&A session for institutional investors and analysts. Again, we will only be accepting questions in the Japanese line. We are not accepting questions on the English line.
First is Okazaki-san from Nomura Securities.
Okazaki from Nomura. My first question is on Air Quality and Air-Conditioning. Well, Europe, was weak. It looks like your revenue sales were increasing. And yet profits, at least the profit margin was going down. So could you elaborate on what happened in Air-Conditioning and Air Quality in Q1?
My second question is on Blue Yonder, 9% growth year-on-year on SaaS, S-A-A-S. The slide says that the demand from the customers is getting sluggish. Could you elaborate on that? And what your expectations are for Q2 onwards?
For Air-to-Water. Air-to-Water and air-to-air also was mentioned in the business company Investor Day event, which is represented by room air-conditioning, for the room air-conditioners. In China, bit difficult situation. But in Asia and Japan, given a very hot summer days, we are seeing the strong sales, which is pushing up our sales.
For Air-to-Water profit margin it is high and the drop on a year-on-year basis, about 40% drop, so that is having a major impact on profit through increased sales in air-to-air, the decline in loss in Air-to-Water could not be compensated for fully, and that had a net result for Q1, that is for Blue Yonder, SaaS and ARR for that business.
If you can look at the appendix portion of our presentation deck, Slide 25, 9% growth -- yes, here, SaaS ARR, annual recurring revenue, becoming flatter, you said. As for the sales personnel, training and enhance competitiveness. We have had programs for that, especially starting around the second quarter, we should see the positive effect.
The CEO Duncan, is sharing that information with us. And Higuchi-san, the CEO of Connect has confirmed that. So if you can look at SaaS NRR, net revenue retention which is related to the investments made by the customers. Most of the contracts -- or contracts are 3-year contracts. And so we are now seeing the updating or the replacement of the contracts that were signed before we acquired the company. And we are trying to increase the fraction of SaaS. In other words, the cloud-based, native cloud-based, more transfer. And therefore, the contracts with existing customers are being revisited on-premise, meaning the customers on-premise or customized part. We want to reduce those as much as possible and increase the SaaS portion.
And so if you can look at the upper right graph, you can see that's happening. And that is the reason why SaaS ARR may appear to be weak, getting weak, but with the sales force enhancement and the product updates being conducted once every 6 months for sure and improve the customer satisfaction, those programs will be implemented. Hope that answers your questions.
Next, BofA Securities, Hirakawa-san, please?
Hirakawa from BofA. Two questions, please. One point of clarification. Energy, [indiscernible] Automotive Batteries, the plant in the United States or in Nevada. So operating utilization rate is down from the beginning of the fiscal year, this was within your expectation? Is that right? That was my point of clarification. And it would not happen in the future? Any changes, any changes that you can share with us?
The second question is about Connect. In Q1, Q1 numbers appear to be a little weak and this year's plan, it's going to be a higher, profit is significantly higher. So I am unable to understand that, for example, in Q2 and onwards, Avionics investment fund being reduced and or process automation improving, pushing up your profits. So in order for Connect to achieve the target, what kind of factors should we consider or background?
Thank you for your questions about Energy first. Yes, it is within the expectations at the beginning of the fiscal year. Originally, this is something that we deal with and Q1 is weak. So that was already discounted for. So for the full year, IRA, of course, that we show the numbers. And towards that, we will be progressing.
So as well, the lower production, we responded to that. That's why I said that earlier. So that's about energy. As for Connect, so the upfront investments in the first half is higher. So because of that and also -- in Avionics, it's the In-Flight communication. We have -- we are making some investments and also some concerning factor, which is expected or the airplane manufacturers, the policy about the production, the U.S. authority is looking into the quality issue. So there are some uncertainties in relation to that. So as Panasonic Connect as of now, the impact or process automation, we have ended that deficit. So I think throughout the year for the full year, we want to make a good progress. I hope that answers your question.
Next, from SMBC Nikko Securities, Katsura-san please.
Katsura from SMBC Nikko. I have 2 questions. First, I might have missed it because I was not connected for the first part of your presentation. But you did talk about the actual results compared to your projections by segment, can you tell us the overall picture. And your full year guidance remains unchanged. So can you explain the reason why you kept it unchanged? That's my first question.
Secondly, related to IRA tax credit cash in, you said about JPY 200 billion and the Projector business transfer cash in, in light of these 2, free cash flow, you were assuming a negative, it could possibly turn into positive cash flow. So can you comment on that? For the Projector business, EV based 120-something was mentioned. But what about the amount of cash in to expect?
By segment, I give you a picture on an overall basis, consolidated basis. IRA transfer costs was not incorporated in our guidance. During Q1, actually, during the month of July, we agreed with our counterparty that we can talk about that. In back to PL was not assumed initially. So overall, compared to expected total profit maybe around JPY 10 billion, including that JPY 5.5 billion short, maybe. But through communication with business companies, of course, some are stronger than others. And at current point in time, we don't have anything that is certain. The business companies say that they are doable. And we don't doubt what the -- we have -- we don't have reasons to doubt their projections, and therefore, the full year guidance remain unchanged. When we announced the second quarter results with better visibility, we should be able to give you an update for the consolidated basis as well as by segment. That's our expectation.
Your second question regarding IRA tax credit. The amount, cash in amount well, JPY 100 billion a little short of JPY 100 billion, which would be a plus to operating cash flow to be recorded during FY '25, which is not included in the initial guidance. The cash flow for Q1, JPY 800 billion plus operating cash flow recorded last year and a slight increase over that, and that does not include this new element. As for Projector business, as is mentioned in our press release, for -- in -- as of April 1, 2024, that is the case. And therefore, in terms of the cash impact, it will be for FY '26, the calendar year ending March '26, not for FY '25, the fiscal year ending March '25.
In terms of cash, that will be after April 1, JPY 80 billion plus is being assumed. For profit, although you did not ask about that, but I'm sure you're wondering about it. So the profit impact around JPY 100 billion profit on sale of business to be recorded in the first quarter of FY '26, probably. That is our current projection. That is all.
Next from Citigroup Securities, we have Mr. Ezawa.
Ezawa speaking from Citigroup Global Markets. I have 2 questions. First is about batteries. Earlier, you said that because of the customer, the production has been reduced, but it will recover. But in Q2, if there is a recovery as of July, you have confirmed the recovering trend. Or is that something that you can say? Also about the batteries, the price revision. JPY 13.5 billion lower profit, I think there was an analysis. And what is the impact of the foreign exchange rate? I think that price impact here it shows in yen. So JPY 13.5 billion, what is the impact of the foreign exchange. So that's my first question on battery.
Well, first of all, from Q2, the recovery, it's not from the beginning of the Q2, but as of now, maybe from August, we will start to see some recovery. So the orders are being accumulated. So from our side, the production. We want to make sure that we have a good preparation and the customer when the batteries are available, they can sell them. There is a situation in the United States. So in Q2, we think that we can confirm the recovery. And in Q3 and onwards, I think that we can just offset the adjustment.
And JPY 13.5 billion, which number is that in Q1 results?
Yes. So in Q1, the results, I see the price revision, JPY 13.5 billion. So this price revision -- this is negative. Well, this is excluding the ForEx impact. So ForEx impact is shown on the right-hand side or second from the right. we consolidate that impact. So on the left-hand side, those factors, this is apple to apple. So on the constant currency basis, we are showing so the price revision the ForEx impact is not included.
So JPY 13.5 billion out of that. Energy, here it says, negative. How much is that?
For Energy, the price revision and the raw material are included. And so through the price revision, it's more than JPY 20 billion negative. Originally, direct raw material cost increase or reduction, it has stabilized, and we are seeing that. So lower sales is something that we see, but the raw material price are low, coming down is also included. So I think that it's comparable. Sorry to be taking too much loan, but the Projector business announced the sale of this. So as a group the selection and prioritizing. So Projector business excluding that from the consolidated basis based upon the background. Other businesses probably it seems that there are many other businesses, which also need to be deconsolidated.
So are there any the outlook for other businesses also being deconsolidated?
Well, concerning that question, it has to do with the portfolio of management. There are 3 factors or way of thinking and -- we had talked about that and whether it's consistent with what we are trying to do and whether we are competitive and whether we are best owner or not. So concerning those 3, this Projector business, Media Entertainment, as we said in the press release, with the help of ORIX for this industry, how to do the entertainment in the virtual world and the software and also the equipment requires a lot of investments. So because of those, from the perspective of being a best owner, we made this decision. So as we mentioned in the past, it just happens that this partnership about this partnership that we announced, as for the portfolio management, right now we are proceeding with the various discussions. And as soon as we are ready to make the announcement, of course, we have to consider the counterparties. So sometimes, we are unable to make the announcement very well. So we would like to make a steady progress in that direction.
We are getting close to the end time. Maybe one last question. From Mizuho Securities, Nakane-san.
This is Nakane, can you hear me?
We're hearing noise.
But can you hear me?
Yes.
Two questions. First, FA Solution and office automation Y-on-Y increase sales and profits achieved earlier than expected. But looking at the demand situation. Should we expect ups and downs going forward? Or can we expect sales to profit to continue to increase, albeit limited? That's my first question. My second question -- my first question is for your business and market overall.
My Second question, the holdings -- how do you expect to make sure that what is born by different business companies could be kept low.
It was hardly audible. As for FA Solutions, Industry segment, and process automation is Connect segment. The situation is slightly different related to -- for FA Solution, especially Servo Motor in China, it's returning. We saw a recovery in Q1.
Can we expect this to continue? Can we say that it has bottomed out?
No, that is not our observation. The labor saving investments in China, we expect will continue to be rather sluggish. So FA Solution and Industry, Q1 was strong, it was good, but we don't expect it to go down but we don't expect it to recover, grow strongly either.
Regarding process automation, the backlog, order backlog, has been declining on a continuous basis, although we are not showing that in any of our slides. At the end of last fiscal year, January, February, March, since around that time, we are seeing demand or orders increasing. For [ what ] applications, smartphones, mainly recovery taking place in process automation that is making a contribution and process automation had a very difficult year last year, but it looks like it has hit the bottom or we are seeing signs of hitting the bottom. So that's the difference between the 2 businesses.
And your second question, for automotive, true. That's a pretty big business. So as you correctly described, it will be a common issue for the group overall and we will be implementing the programs, we are studying the best way forward. We do consider this to be an issue. And so we will make sure we implement the best methods possible during FY '25. That's our current position. I hope that was helpful.
Thank you very much with that. We'd like to end the Q1 financial results earnings call for fiscal '25. Thank you very much for your joining -- for your participation.
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]