Komatsu Ltd

TSE:6301

Earnings Call Analysis

Komatsu's Q1 FY 2024 Financial Results

Komatsu's Q1 FY 2024 saw a boost, with net sales rising 6.7% year-on-year to JPY 959.8 billion, reaching record highs for this period. Operating income increased by 6.8% to JPY 157 billion, and net income grew by 4.1% to JPY 109.7 billion, driven by favorable foreign exchange rates and improved selling prices. However, construction and mining equipment sales saw a mixed performance, with gains in North and Latin America offset by declines in Europe and Asia. The company continues to expect full-year sales in line with April projections, though construction equipment sales are predicted to fall by JPY 35 billion, while mining equipment sales will likely exceed initial forecasts by JPY 30 billion.

Strong Financial Performance

In the first quarter of FY 2024, the company demonstrated robust financial performance. Net sales increased by 6.7% year-on-year to JPY 959.8 billion, driven by favorable foreign exchange rates and higher selling prices. Operating income also saw a 6.8% increase, reaching JPY 157 billion, which resulted in an operating income ratio of 16.4%. This period marked a record high for net sales, segment profit, operating income ratio, and net income, which rose by 4.1% to JPY 109.7 billion.

Segment Analysis

The Construction, Mining, and Utility Equipment segment achieved a 5.6% increase in net sales to JPY 894.3 billion and a segment profit increase of 2.8% to JPY 142.3 billion. However, the segment profit ratio declined by 0.4 percentage points to 15.9%. The Retail Finance segment experienced remarkable growth, with net sales surging by 33.2% to JPY 30.5 billion and segment profit rising by 20.4% to JPY 7.6 billion. The Industrial Machinery and Others segment saw a 12.6% increase in net sales to JPY 45.5 billion, with a substantial 160.9% rise in segment profit to JPY 5 billion.

Regional Performance

Regionally, sales of construction, mining, and utility equipment grew by 5.8% year-on-year to JPY 891.3 billion. Growth was notable in North America, Latin America, and Oceania, although sales declined in Europe, CIS, and Asia. Despite the positive impact of foreign exchange rates and selling prices, reduced volumes led to a JPY 47.5 billion year-on-year increase in sales and a JPY 3.8 billion increase in segment profit.

Retail Finance and Industrial Machinery

The retail finance business showed robust performance, with assets and new contracts increasing due to favorable foreign exchange rates. Revenues rose by JPY 7.6 billion to JPY 30.5 billion, while segment profit increased by JPY 1.3 billion, primarily due to higher interest income and increased financing receivables. The Industrial Machinery and Others segment saw significant gains, driven by higher sales of large press machines to the automotive industry and a recovery in excimer laser maintenance revenues for the semiconductor industry.

Guidance and Future Outlook

For the full year, the company expects sales to align with projections announced in April. Despite a JPY 3 billion shortfall in selling prices during the first quarter, they are optimistic about meeting their annual targets. The Construction Equipment segment is projected to face a JPY 35 billion downside in sales, mainly in North America and Europe. However, gains in Indonesia are expected to partially offset these declines. In contrast, the Mining segment is anticipated to outperform initial projections, with sales expected to exceed April forecasts by around JPY 30 billion.

Market Conditions

The first quarter of FY 2024 saw a 20% year-on-year drop in demand for construction equipment, mainly in Germany, the UK, and Italy, due to rising interest rates and high energy prices. For the year, demand is projected to decrease between 5% and 10%. Chinese market demand increased by 14% year-on-year in the first quarter, but is expected to decline between 20% and 30% for the full year. Southeast Asian markets, particularly Indonesia, also faced declining demand, which is expected to recover in the second half as governmental budget execution for public works projects resumes.

Challenges and Strategic Responses

The company faces several challenges, including decreased demand for construction equipment in North America and fluctuating mineral prices. Strategic responses include focusing on aftermarket services, capturing market opportunities in Indonesia, and leveraging the acquisition of the GHH Group to expand their mining equipment portfolio. The GHH acquisition is expected to bring synergies in product development, production, and sales.

Financial Health

The company’s consolidated balance sheet shows total assets at JPY 6,037.9 billion, up by JPY 401.2 billion from the previous fiscal year-end, primarily due to a weaker yen. Inventories increased by JPY 157.8 billion, again due to the weaker yen. The shareholders' equity ratio fell by 1.5 percentage points to 52.3%, reflecting a share buyback program. The net debt-to-equity ratio stands at a healthy 0.3x.

Earnings Call Transcript 2025-Q1

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

I'm Horikoshi, CFO. I explain the business results for the first quarter FY 2024.

Page 4 shows highlights for the first quarter of FY 2024. Foreign exchange rates were JPY 155.5 to the dollar, JPY 167.5 to euro and JPY 101.9 to Australian dollar. Yen depreciated against dollar euro and Australian dollar year-on-year.

Net sales increased 6.7% year-on-year to JPY 959.8 billion, operating income increased 6.8% year-on-year to JPY 157 billion, and operating income ratio increased 0.1 point to 16.4%.

Net sales and operating income increased due to the positive effects of foreign exchange rates and improved selling prices. Net income increased 4.1% to JPY 109.7 billion. Net sales marked the record high for the first quarter and segment profit, operating income, operating income ratio and net income marked the quarterly record highs.

Page 5 shows segment sales and profit. Net sales of construction, mining and utility equipment increased 5.6% year-on-year to JPY 894.3 billion. Segment profit increased 2.8% to JPY 142.3 billion, and segment profit ratio decreased 0.4 point to 15.9%.

Net sales of retail finance increased 33.2% year-on-year to JPY 30.5 billion, and segment profit increased 20.4% to JPY 7.6 billion. Net sales of industrial machinery and others increased 12.6% year-on-year to JPY 45.5 billion, and segment profit increased 160.9% to JPY 5 billion.

I'll explain causes of difference of each segment later. Page 6 shows the sales by region of construction, mining and utility equipment. Sales of construction, mining and utility equipment increased 5.8% year-on-year to JPY 891.3 billion. By region, sales increased mainly in North America, Latin America and Oceania, but decreased in Europe, CIS and Asia, et cetera. In North America, Latin America and Oceania, which marks the sales growth, excluding the foreign exchange effects, sales decreased due to the sales decline in construction equipment.

Page 7 shows the causes of difference in sales and segment profit in the Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment segment. Sales increased by JPY 47.5 billion year-on-year as the positive impact of foreign exchange and selling prices outweighed the negative impact of lower volume.

Segment profit increased by JPY 3.8 billion year-on-year as the positive impact of foreign exchange and selling prices exceeded the negative impact of lower volume and higher costs. The segment profit ratio went down 0.4 percentage points from the corresponding period a year ago to 15.9%.

Page 8 is about the retail finance business. Assets and new contracts increased from previous fiscal year-end and from the corresponding period a year ago, respectively, mainly due to the positive impact of foreign exchange rates. Revenues increased by JPY 7.6 billion year-on-year to JPY 30.5 billion, and segment profit increased by JPY 1.3 billion year-on-year to JPY 7.6 billion, mainly due to the positive impact of foreign exchange rates, a rise in the interest income ratio and an increase in financing receivables.

Page 9 shows sales and segment profit of the Industrial Machinery & Others segment. Sales increased 12.6% from the corresponding period a year ago to JPY 45.5 billion. Segment profit expanded by 160.9% to JPY 5 billion, and the segment profit ratio rose 6.2 percentage points to 11%. The increase in sales and profit was mainly due to higher sales of large press machines to the automotive industry and a recovery in maintenance revenues of excimer lasers to the semiconductor industry, which has high margins.

Page 10 is about the consolidated balance sheet. Total assets were JPY 6,037.9 billion, an increase of JPY 401.2 billion from the previous fiscal year-end, mainly due to the weaker yen. Inventories increased by JPY 157.8 billion from the end of the previous fiscal year, mainly due to the weaker yen. The shareholders' equity ratio decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the end of the previous fiscal year to 52.3%.

Shareholders' equity as of the end of June includes approximately JPY 56 billion of the JPY 100 billion maximum amount of share buybacks resolved at the Board of Directors meeting held on April 26, 2024, as they were acquired prior to end of June. The net D/E ratio was 0.3x.

That is all for myself.

Next, Mr. Hishinuma, General Manager of Business Coordination Department. We explained the projection of FY 2024 business results and conditions of major markets.

[Kiyoshi Hishinuma, executive]

I'm Hishinuma, General Manager of Business Coordination Department. I will explain the projection of FY 2024 business results and the conditions of major markets. Page 12 shows the outline of projection for FY 2024. We have not changed our projection of the full year results of FY 2024, the projection of consolidated payout ratio does not take into account the share buyback impact, which was decided in the Board of Directors meeting on April 26, 2024, I explain the actual and projected demand for 7 major products on the next page onward.

From Page 13, I'll explain the actual and projected demand for 7 major products. The chart shows the demand of several major products, including mining equipment, and the first quarter FY 2024 figure is our estimated preliminary figure. In the first quarter FY 2024, demand decreased 7% year-on-year, and in FY 2024, we expect demand will decrease between minus 5% and minus 10% year-on-year, which remains unchanged from the projection in April.

On the next page onward, I explain the conditions of major market. Page 14 shows the actual and projected demand in Japanese market. In the first quarter FY 2024, demand decreased 4% year-on-year due to a decline in demand for new equipment for rental users. In FY 2024, we expect the demand will remain almost flat year-on-year, which remains unchanged from the projection in April.

Page 15 shows the actual project demand in North American market. In the first quarter FY 2024, demand decreased 4% year-on-year. Demand for rental and energy decreased, but demand for infrastructure remained steady. In FY 2024, we expect demand will decrease between minus 5% and minus 10% year-on-year, which remains unchanged from the projection in April.

With the inflation higher than expectation in the U.S., the timing of rate cut was delayed compared to the forecast, but we monitor the situation closely going forward.

Page 16 shows actual and projected demand in European market. In the first quarter FY 2024, demand decreased by 20% year-on-year. Demand for construction equipment decreased centering on Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy due to the interest rate hikes and high energy prices. In FY 2024, we expect demand will decrease between minus 5% and minus 10% year-on-year, which remains unchanged from the projection in April. Europe turned to interest rate cut in June, but the economic uncertainty still continues, and the full flat to the demand recovery is yet to come.

Page 17 shows actual and projected demand in Chinese market. This slide shows the demand for hydraulic excavators, excluding mini shovels. Total demand, including those of local makers is also shown as a reference. Demand growth is that of foreign makers.

In the first quarter, FY 2024 demand increased by 14% year-on-year. And the total demand, including local makers increased 21% year-on-year. In FY 2024, we expect demand will decline between minus 20% and minus 30% year-on-year. And the total demand, including local makers will decline between minus 10% and minus 20% year-on-year, and they remain unchanged from the projection in April.

Sluggish economy triggered by the slapped real estate market remains almost unchanged, but we continue to work at satin closely going forward.

Page 18 shows the demand trend and outlook for the Southeast Asian market. In Q1 fiscal '24, demand declined by 12% from the corresponding period a year ago. Demand for mining equipment in Indonesia declined year-over-year. Demand for construction equipment decreased due to the delay in public works budget execution prior to the formation of the new government in Indonesia.

The fiscal '24 annual demand outlook is unchanged from the April forecast, which is expected to remain at the same level as the previous year. In Indonesia, the largest market, demand for mining equipment is expected to decrease from the previous year due to the expected gradual decline in coal prices. In Construction Equipment, demand is expected to recover in the second half of the year as the new government is expected to be formed in October following the presidential election and budget execution for public works projects will begin then after.

Page 19 shows the trend and outlook for prices of major minerals related to demand for mining equipment. Despite short-term fluctuations, prices of major minerals have remained at high levels over the long term.

On Page 20, our trends in demand for mining equipment. Demand for mining equipment in the first quarter of fiscal year '24 apparently decreased by 18% from the corresponding period a year ago. The annual demand outlook for fiscal '24 is unchanged from the April forecast, ranging from 0% to minus 5% year-on-year. While demand in Indonesia is expected to decline, demand in other regions is expected to be generally firm.

Page 21 is about sales of mining equipment. In Q1 fiscal '24, sales increased by 15% from the corresponding period a year ago, reaching JPY 440.7 billion. Excluding the impact of FX rates, sales increased by 2%. Fiscal '24 sales are expected to remain unchanged from the April forecast of JPY 1,709.7 billion, which is broadly flat year-over-year.

Page 22 shows the sales outlook of equipment parts and services in Construction, Mining & Utility Equipment segment. In Q1 fiscal '24, sales of parts increased by 13% from the corresponding period a year ago, reaching JPY 264.2 billion, accounting for 53% of the aftermarket business, which includes services, et cetera. Aftermarket sales, excluding FX impact, was up 1% year-over-year.

In fiscal '24, annual parts sales are expected to be JPY 966.7 billion, down 1% from the previous year. And the aftermarket sales ratio, including services, is expected to be 51%, both unchanged from the April forecast.

On Page 34, I'll cover topics that happened during the first quarter. On July 1, Komatsu through its wholly owned subsidiary, Komatsu Mining Corporation, KMC, completed the acquisition of GHH Group, a manufacturer of underground mining equipment. GHH has a broad lineup of underground mining equipment, including road haul dump trucks, suitable for narrow tunnels as well as a network of distributors to provide sales and services to customers around the world, production facilities in Europe and South Africa and competent talent with knowledge and expertise and product development.

By welcoming GHH as a subsidiary of KMC, we will enhance synergies with KMC and further strengthen each function of product development, production, sales and services aiming to further provide products, services and solutions that contribute to the improvement of safety and productivity at our customers' job sites.

That is all for me. Thank you. .

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Now we will move to the Q&A session. First question is from Mr. Sano of JPMorgan Securities. Over to you.

[Tomohiko Sano, analyst]

I'm Sano of JPMorgan Securities. I have 2 questions. First, I'd like to ask you about your assessment of the first quarter results. I'd like to ask CFO about how you view sales and operating income compared to the forecast made 3 months ago or your internal plan? And you said the full year plan remains unchanged. But how should we view the contribution of GHH? Would you comment on this point, please? This is my first question.

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

This is Horikoshi. Compared to the projection announced in April, sales exceeded by about JPY 40 billion. Foreign exchange gave us the upside by about JPY 83 billion as of our foreign exchange assumption in April was JPY 140 to a dollar. And the volume gave actually the downside impact by about JPY 40 billion compared to the projection in April.

Selling prices were also the downside by about JPY 3 billion compared to the plan. The volume was below the plan by JPY 40 billion, and its mix had plus and minus. Construction was down by about JPY 15 billion. And this is mainly due to the dealers in North America held off buying.

Since second half of 2023, rental supply increased sharply and competition intensified and the third-party rentals inventory turned excessive and that led to the put off of purchases. So the impact by North American dealers purchase put off was about JPY 16 billion, and the construction sales were below the plan by about JPY 15 billion due to volume factors.

In Mining business, sales recognition is pushed back, and the volume was below the plan by about JPY 25 billion. This is about net sales.

Talking about profit. As I said before, the foreign exchange upside in sales was about JPY 83 billion, and its impact in profit was up by about JPY 15 billion. Volume downside was about JPY 14 billion. I said the selling prices downside in sales was about JPY 3 billion, and that directly affects profit. Mix improved slightly, and it was the upside by about JPY 8 billion. It was because of the decreased equipment and increased parts as well as the improved SVM of parts and the improved margin of overseas used equipment sales.

On the cost side, fixed cost posting was pushed back compared to the initial plan, and that also led to the upside. In total, foreign exchange was up by JPY 15 billion. Volume was down by JPY 14 billion, and there were some other upsides. And putting them all together in the first quarter, the total upside was about JPY 15 billion in profit.

As for the full year, we expect that the sales will be almost in line with the projection we used in April. And the volume impact will also be the level of projection in April. I say the price impact was below the plan by about JPY 3 billion in the first quarter. But for the full year, they will be mostly in line with the plan. I said that the sales in the first quarter were below the plan, but the construction and mining equipment are in a different trend.

In Construction Equipment, the downside was about JPY 15 billion in the first quarter, but it will be expanding to about JPY 35 billion. The downside in sales. The biggest downside be in North America held off purchase by dealers will lead to the downside of over JPY 40 billion.

Demand in Europe will be lower than the projection, and that will be JPY 10 billion downside, but we're gaining large business in Indonesia, and that will partly offset the downside. And the result will be below the plan by JPY 35 billion in construction.

While in mining, the pushed back sales in the first quarter will be realized. And for the full year, compared to the plan in April, its sales will be above by about JPY 30 billion in mining. We'll be able to recover the North America downside in the first quarter. And the projection in April for Indonesia was a bit conservative to begin with. So if sales will exceed the plan. And in Oceania and Latin America, also sales will exceed the plan.

On profit, we expect it to be almost in line with the April projection. So only the foreign exchange deviation from the assumption of JPY 140 will impact the profit. This is the overview. As for GHH, it will be consolidated from July and if sales are about JPY 10 billion, but profit impact will be negligible as in the first year by paying the retention bonus and others.

[Tomohiko Sano, analyst]

Thank you, Horikoshi. Second question is about mining. You said that sales recognition is pushed back from the first quarter. But for the full year, sales, the upside is expected compared to the full year plan. But given the recent declined price of copper, and of course, the spot price fluctuation wouldn't directly affect the investment. But doesn't it dampen the investment appetite? Looking at the BB ratio, except Komatsu Limited, momentum doesn't seem to improve. So I have some concerns for the strength of recovery in the second quarter and beyond. Would you add some comments on this point, please?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

As for the sales projection for this year, we have already received some level of orders. So based on this, I said that we will see the upside against the April projection for the full year. So I am very confident. As for the order receiving, it has been largely declining since FY 2023. So you need to monitor the order receiving trend toward the second half of the year. We do observe strong inquiries for dump trucks, but for excavators, it is a bit weak.

[Tomohiko Sano, analyst]

Your comment about orders is more related to the sales of next fiscal year, right?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Yes.

[Operator]

We will take the next question. Mr. Michael of Nomura Securities, please.

[Unknown Analyst]

This is Michael of Nomura Securities. Do you hear me?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Yes.

[Unknown Analyst]

I have a question about the causes of difference in profit. Selling prices impact was a bit weak in this first quarter. And I'd like to confirm whether it was due to the lower volume. And can we expect that to recover? And please let us know the breakdown of volume and product mix.

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

As for volume, your observation is correct. And we had a rather slow start. But in the second quarter and the second half, we'll be in line with the plan. As for the breakdown of volume shown on Page 7, out of JPY 31.5 billion of volume and product mix, et cetera, for the year-on-year downside, volume impact was JPY 25.9 billion or JPY 26 billion and the regional mix and product mix are responsible for the remaining part.

In April, I said that regional and product mix, we have about JPY 18 billion of downside impact for the full year. On the regional mix front, proportional decline of Indonesia makes the substantial adverse impact. And the product mix front, equipment with low margin, we'll be selling well. And that would make the adverse impact as well. In the first quarter, same things happened. With a lower mix of Indonesia and higher product mix of low-margin equipment and that made a minus impact of about JPY 5.5 billion. They are the 2 major factors.

[Unknown Analyst]

My second question is also about mining. Mining demand in this first quarter was weak. But your net sales in mining presumably increased in local currency. Was there any change in demand in April to June quarter in Indonesia or in latest condition, you kept your full year guidance unchanged. But would you comment on the demand forecast of mining equipment along with your own sales?

[Kiyoshi Hishinuma, executive]

This is Hishinuma. Mining demand in Indonesia is suddenly now weakening, and we see its impact. Talking about our sales. First, the ratio of Equipment & Mining segment, sales is about 30%. So when the aftersales market is firm, our sales are kept firm. As for the full year forecast, as explained before, we expect to see the recovery in the second quarter and beyond, and our sales will be firm.

As for demand, impact of Indonesia might be slightly mingling on, but the major companies CapEx will continue to be firm. So up to the end of this fiscal year, the current momentum will be sustained.

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

This is Horikoshi. When you refer to Page 6. Year-on-year sales changes, excluding foreign exchange effects are shown. Sales to outside customers are down by JPY 46.1 billion year-on-year, as shown in the table. But in mining, sales actually increased year-on-year.

I said before, compared to the projection in April, sales were down by JPY 25 billion, but in year-on-year comparison, sales increased. So demand is not so weak. Parts and services are growing.

[Unknown Analyst]

And you said before that for the full year, you'll be able to catch up and mining will be actually stronger. Are you saying that including parts and services related demand is gaining momentum? And do you include the price hike as well?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

In the first quarter, mining business started low due to 2 major reasons. One, in Latin America, due to the extremely severe weather in April and May, parts and services business as were suspended. And in Indonesia, overhaul was pushed back. So toward the second half of the year, we'll catch up in this front.

[Operator]

I will take the next question. Mr. Isayama of Goldman Sachs.

[Yuichiro Isayama, analyst]

This is Isayama of Goldman Sachs. Do you hear me?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Yes.

[Yuichiro Isayama, analyst]

My first question is about production and inventory trend. I think you said that Komatsu will adjust production for the export before. But maybe partly due to the postponement or foreign exchange impact, inventory on balance sheet doesn't seem to improve much. So would you share with us your current forecast in production and inventory and cash flow? And would you also add to comment their progress toward the full year projection.

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

This is Horikoshi. If you refer to balance sheet, inventories increased JPY 157.8 billion from March, of which, foreign exchange impact was about JPY 100 billion. So the remaining part of close to JPY 60 billion was the increase in inventories. For one thing, as I said before, expected sales of JPY 40 billion were pushed back and inventory was pushed up for that amount. For the full year, inventory will go down to the initially planned level, so it might be slightly higher than that.

As for cash flows, in April, our projection was about JPY 370 billion. And today, we expect to generate almost the same level of free cash flow. .

[Yuichiro Isayama, analyst]

Thank you, Horikoshi-san. Though you might have explained before, would you explain again the reason of increased inventory was a pushback caused by the request to delay the delivery or logistic programs, would you elaborate more, especially on construction equipment?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

In the case of construction, in North America, they put off purchases as mentioned before. Since the second half of 2023, as I said before, rental equipment increased and competition intensified prominently, including third-party rentals and dealers put off purchases partly because of postponed interest rate cut. While retail sales will be even better than the projection in April throughout a year.

Due to dealers purchase put off, dealers restocking forecast for the end of the fiscal year will be revised down by about 800 compared to the initial forecast. This is the reason why the downside against the April projection expands in North America for the full year.

[Yuichiro Isayama, analyst]

Yes. On the second point, I think you understood [indiscernible] were talking about earlier about selling prices. In talking with my colleagues and others, we were wondering if price discipline has become a bit relaxed amongst the dealer base. I'm talking about the industry rather than your company. I have heard about this in the North American construction market. And I wonder if we should consider the possibility that price increases in the current construction market will not be as widespread as expected. Should we expect that your price increases to dealers will pass through smoothly or should we consider the possibility that price increases will not be realized as much because the environment has changed a bit?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

This is Horikoshi speaking. Regarding price increases for this fiscal year, the overall trend is larger price increases in mining than in construction. That is regarding the price increase magnitude? That's my first point.

Comparing equipment and parts, equipment price increases are harder to do. And relatively, parts prices can be raised. That's my second point. For Q1, I mentioned earlier that we were not able to raise prices as much compared to assumptions. But like I said earlier, volume is a factor. And so far, in the second half of the year, we still are planning to raise prices according to the initial plan, and we do not think that we won't be able to do it.

[Yuichiro Isayama, analyst]

I understood very well.

[Operator]

Let's move on to the next question. Mr. [indiscernible]

[Unknown Analyst]

This is [indiscernible]. Can you hear me?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Yes, please go ahead.

[Unknown Analyst]

First, this may be a bit far out, but the U.S. presidential election will take place in November. And there is talk that Mr. Trump has an advantage. And in fact, the stock prices of Caterpillar, Komatsu and Hitachi Construction Machinery has been rising because of this. So if Mr. Trump wins, how do you think you will benefit in terms of infrastructure investments, a return to U.S. manufacturing and so on?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

This is Horikoshi regardless of whether the new administration is Democratic or Republican. We don't think the impact on the construction industry is going to be that substantial. However, in the energy sector, I do believe that a Republican administration will have a more positive impact on construction equipment demand.

On the other hand, there has been talk of raising tariffs, and we are aware of it. But since our exports from China to North America are not that large to begin with. We do not expect the impact is going to be that significant either.

[Unknown Analyst]

That is all from me. So if we compare if it's going to be republican or a Democratic administration, would it be fair to say that a Republican administration is going to have more positive?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

I would say that there is not so much of an impact either way. But on a relative basis, yes.

[Unknown Analyst]

I understand. The second question is about the dollar-yen rate. It's currently undergoing a considerable correction. I have heard that some Japanese companies are converting not only dollars to yen, but also euros and other foreign currencies to yen, while they can. So I would like to know what kind of FX operations you are doing, if any, are there any changes you are making to your currency operations or currency hedging, et cetera?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

This is Horikoshi. No, we have not made any changes. First, in terms of financing, we basically have a 50-50 split between long-term, short-term variable, fixed direct and indirect financing. As for foreign exchange rates, we make forward contracts for approximately 50% of our exposure steadily. We do this based on the idea of moving out large fluctuations in exchange rates and we are not reactive to FX rate fluctuations.

Also, we have production bases all over the world. And I believe that this serves as a hedge against exchange rate fluctuations to some extent. Also, we monitor costs and utilization rates and engage in cross sourcing that also serves as a hedge. We are not doing anything else and are not changing the method of currency hedging or anything of that sort. .

[Unknown Analyst]

I understand.

[Operator]

Let's move on to the next question. Mr. Ibara from Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.

[Yoshinao Ibara, analyst]

This is Ibara from Morgan Stanley. Can you hear me?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Yes, please go ahead.

[Yoshinao Ibara, analyst]

First, I'd like to ask you again about distributor inventories in the U.S. and Europe. Regarding the absolute level of inventory in the U.S. Do you need to build more inventory because retail is good? Or are people holding back because of high interest rates. Like mentioned earlier, is rental at a good level now that you don't have to build up inventory anymore. Please confirm. Also for Europe, at the time of last fiscal year's result briefing, I recall there was a comment saying distributor inventory correction has been completed. But can you also confirm whether the inventory levels are optimal now or not?

[Kiyoshi Hishinuma, executive]

This is Hishinuma. First about North America. The absolute level of distributor inventory does not have to increase any further. But when you look at the breakdown of inventory, which is inventory for new equipment sales and for rental at the end of March, which is the end of last fiscal year, we had a good number of new vehicles in stock for sale, while the inventory for rental was smaller than we had expected.

As we've been explaining from earlier, rental inventory replenishments have now progressed. So now our view is that replenishment will happen towards the end of the fiscal year, but not as much as we had initially expected. On the other hand, regarding new equipment inventory, we should see sales progress from now. So the level of inventory should slightly decline going forward.

In Europe, conditions are not so good ever since, and demand is also on a downward trend. For construction equipment, inventory levels are okay, but a little excess for utility equipment. So I think the adjustments will continue for a while.

[Yoshinao Ibara, analyst]

Mr. Horikoshi mentioned earlier that on an annual basis for construction equipment, it's below plan by JPY 35 billion with volume impact. JPY 40 billion related to distribution in North America and JPY 10 billion in Europe, which is JPY 50 billion in total. You were saying that a large deal in Indonesia was going to make up for that shortage, which entails that the deal size is JPY 15 billion. If it were mining equipment, I understand, but is it JPY 15 billion for construction equipment quite big?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

This is Horikoshi speaking. Well, the JPY 15 billion does not mean that the entire amount is coming from the large deal in Indonesia. It's a part of it. However, it's true that a large order has come in. I see, but I cannot elaborate on the details.

[Yoshinao Ibara, analyst]

I see, is it correct to say that other than the 3 regions mentioned, there has been no major changes compared to the assumptions made at the beginning of the period regarding construction? .

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Yes, that's right.

[Operator]

The next question is from Mr. McDonald from Citigroup Securities.

[Graeme McDonald, analyst]

Can you hear me?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Yes, please go ahead.

[Graeme McDonald, analyst]

This is McDonald speaking. Just wanted to ask 2 brief questions. One is about the new consolidation, GHH. You're commenting that annual contribution is going to be about JPY 10 billion and profits are going to break even. And this is for the first year. So what kind of growth and what kind of profit margin should we expect for the next several years? Let's say, for the next 2 or 3 years? That's my first question.

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

This is Horikoshi. This year, sales are about JPY 10 billion, but that's on a 9-month basis. So if we simply multiply that amount by 1.5x, you will get approximately JPY 14 billion. So this will be the current sales trend GHH has on an annual basis.

Regarding how much we can expect in the future, it's hard to say. But with GHH, now we will be able to cover Africa and Europe, which KMC does not cover right now, and our products do not overlap at all. So it depends on how we can combine these products with Komatsu's other products, especially with the cooperation of our distributors. So it's a little difficult for me to give you an explanation on the numbers right now.

[Graeme McDonald, analyst]

So to put it another way, is the operating profit margin of GHH roughly the same as the profit margin of your company's mining business?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

It is lower.

[Graeme McDonald, analyst]

Why is it lower?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Well, I think that the current sales volume is too small as a stand-alone company. The company's product range only covers a part of the underground hard rock market. And they do not have a worldwide distributor network. So I would say that the volume factor is quite big, but still a good amount of costs were spent on development.

[Graeme McDonald, analyst]

So will GHH be featured at the upcoming mine expo at the end of September?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

No, I don't think we have plans for a mine expo right now. We've just acquired them. That's a pity. Excuse me, let me correct myself. I've just heard that we might feature them. So yes, there is a possibility.

[Graeme McDonald, analyst]

Yes, I think you should. You acquired the company and you're saying that it's going to grow over the mid- to long term. And you're saying that profit margins are low right now due to lower sales volume and limited range of products. So it's a great opportunity to feature the company.

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Yes. I think that's what we are preparing for. So yes. .

[Graeme McDonald, analyst]

Also, one detail is about a topic that hasn't been talked about much over the last few years is China. Mr. Hishinuma, you mentioned that China has seen an increase in volume in Q1, and your company sales have increased quite a bit even in local currency on Page 6. But how do you see the Chinese market going forward? Is it just a coincidence that Q1 was up? Or is it something we should expect a little more of in the next several years? It seems like China is growing by about 30% in local currency. So what's your view going forward? And what's your strategy from China hereafter?

[Kiyoshi Hishinuma, executive]

This is Hishinuma. It's true that demand has been on a downward trend for some time now, and we think it will stop falling at some point. But although Q1 results were positive, we do not necessarily see the economy as having improved in terms of the overall economic situation, including trends in the real estate market and so on. Therefore, we have kept the annual forecast low for the year. We will continue to view China as one of our cross-sourcing basis as we have in the past.

[Graeme McDonald, analyst]

Okay. I understand. Then I won't expect more hereafter.

[Operator]

We would like to move on to the next question. It's Mr. Taninaka from SMBC Nikko Securities.

[谷中 聡, analyst]

This is Taninaka from SMBC Nikko Securities. Can you hear me?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Yes. Please go ahead.

[谷中 聡, analyst]

I have 2 questions. First is about the downturn in demand for construction equipment in North America. I was wondering if you could tell us whether this trend of holding back on purchases is getting worse month after month or if it's tentative, what is your view?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

As mentioned earlier, retail demand is even better than the April outlook. The point is, as explained earlier, the holding back of purchases is for rental fleet. So for retail demand, we do not expect it to worsen. We believe that the current situation will continue, meaning we expect that the current rate of decline to continue.

On the other hand, for rental fleet, it depends on how interest rates in the U.S. come down hereafter. And there is also a possibility that we may see an upturn again in fiscal '25 and beyond. .

[谷中 聡, analyst]

The second question is about changes in the competitive environment. You said selling prices were down due to the impact from volume. But going forward, when you look at construction equipment and mining in the Americas, should we anticipate price competition on the back of intensified competition leading to less demand?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

I don't think the competitive environment will change that much from the past 2 years or so.

[谷中 聡, analyst]

I understand. That's all from me.

[Operator]

We are running out of time, so we will conclude with the next question. The next question is from Mr. Fukuhara of Jefferies Securities.

[Sho Fukuhara, analyst]

Hello. This is Fukuhara. I would like to confirm about some numbers. In your initial plan, other gains and losses are budgeted at minus JPY 28 billion for the year. there wasn't much that was realized in Q1, but is this forecast still the case? Excuse me, where does the JPY 28 billion come from?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

Now I know it's under other operating income right, this will remain unchanged for the time being.

[Sho Fukuhara, analyst]

Yes, I understand. Also based on Q1 results, although you don't give out guidance specifically for the first and second half, what is the sense for where you are right now? Is the first half going to be Q1 results time 2 and the second half of the year, the balance of full year guidance. Can you comment on your view on the first and second halves?

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

We don't do such calculations. But like mentioned earlier, for the first quarter, sales were about JPY 40 billion higher than the April outlook. And profits were about JPY 15 billion higher for the year, regarding sales, excluding FX impact, it was almost the same as the April outlook and the same applies for profits. So you can say it really depends on how you look at exchange rates. It's a matter of how you look at FX rates for the year that will determine where sales and profits are going to head towards. .

[Sho Fukuhara, analyst]

I understand.

[Takeshi Horikoshi, executive]

This concludes Komatsu's fiscal '24 Q1 Results Briefing. Thank you very much for joining.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]