Rakuten Group Inc
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one Rakuten Group Inc stock under the Base Case scenario is 1 512.28 JPY. Compared to the current market price of 891.9 JPY, Rakuten Group Inc is Undervalued by 41%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Rakuten Group Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Rakuten Group Inc., often referred to as Japan's "Amazon," has carved out a significant niche in the global e-commerce landscape since its inception in 1997. Founded by Hiroshi Mikitani, the company began as an online marketplace and has evolved into a diverse conglomerate with ventures spanning e-commerce, digital content, and financial services. With its innovative approach to customer loyalty through the Rakuten Ecosystem—a suite of services that rewards users for their purchases—Rakuten has successfully built a loyal customer base. This ecosystem not only enhances user engagement but also enables the company to leverage its data analytics capabilities for personalized marketing, effectiv...
Rakuten Group Inc., often referred to as Japan's "Amazon," has carved out a significant niche in the global e-commerce landscape since its inception in 1997. Founded by Hiroshi Mikitani, the company began as an online marketplace and has evolved into a diverse conglomerate with ventures spanning e-commerce, digital content, and financial services. With its innovative approach to customer loyalty through the Rakuten Ecosystem—a suite of services that rewards users for their purchases—Rakuten has successfully built a loyal customer base. This ecosystem not only enhances user engagement but also enables the company to leverage its data analytics capabilities for personalized marketing, effectively creating a self-reinforcing cycle of growth.
As an investor, the strength of Rakuten lies in its multi-faceted business model which diversifies revenue streams while addressing various market needs. The company is making substantial strides in areas such as fintech, where it has established a robust online banking and payment system that competes with traditional banks. Additionally, Rakuten's investments in emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and blockchain, position it for future growth in the rapidly evolving digital landscape. With a significant presence in international markets like Europe and the United States, and ambitious plans for expansion, Rakuten Group Inc. presents a unique opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on a dynamic player in the global marketplace that combines e-commerce with technology innovation.
Rakuten Group Inc. operates a diverse range of business segments, which contribute to its overall growth and revenue generation. The core business segments include:
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E-commerce: This is Rakuten's foundational segment, encompassing its online marketplace where various merchants can sell products. Rakuten Ichiba is the main platform, allowing consumers to shop for a wide range of products, from electronics to fashion.
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Digital Content: Rakuten offers various digital content services, including streaming services for music, video, and e-books. This segment includes Rakuten TV and Rakuten Music, which provide content access to consumers on demand.
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FinTech: Rakuten's financial technology segment includes services such as mobile banking, credit cards, and insurance. The flagship service is the Rakuten Bank, along with Rakuten Securities, which provides investment services.
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Mobile Communications: This segment entails Rakuten Mobile, which launched its mobile network across Japan. It operates on a cloud-native platform and leverages a cost-effective model to provide competitive mobile services.
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Advertising: Rakuten has a growing advertising business, leveraging its extensive user data and e-commerce platform to offer targeted advertising solutions for businesses. This includes display ads, affiliate marketing, and solutions for brand partners.
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Logistics and Payment Services: Rakuten provides logistics services to support its e-commerce operations. Rakuten Pay is another critical component, enabling seamless transactions for customers both online and in-store.
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International Operations: Rakuten has several international businesses, including e-commerce platforms and partnerships in various countries. While this segment is significant for global expansion, it is more fragmented compared to its domestic operations.
Each of these segments contributes to Rakuten's strategy of creating an integrated ecosystem where various services and platforms enhance user experience and drive customer loyalty. The company aims to leverage synergies between these segments to improve efficiency and customer engagement.
Rakuten Group Inc. possesses several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals, particularly in the e-commerce and digital service sectors. Here are some of the key advantages:
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Ecosystem Business Model: Rakuten has created a robust ecosystem that integrates various services such as e-commerce, payments, banking, and telecommunications. This interconnected structure encourages customer loyalty and offers multiple touchpoints for monetization, creating a barrier for competitors.
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Loyalty Program: Rakuten’s Super Points loyalty program is one of the most extensive in Japan. It incentivizes users to shop and engage with its services, driving repeat business and customer retention. This loyalty program is a powerful tool that helps to differentiate Rakuten from competitors who may not have a similarly comprehensive rewards system.
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Strong Brand Recognition: Over the years, Rakuten has built a strong brand presence in Japan and expanding visibility in other markets. This brand equity allows Rakuten to leverage trust and familiarity, attracting both consumers and merchants to its platform.
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Diverse Revenue Streams: Rakuten operates across multiple sectors, including e-commerce, fintech, telecommunications, and digital content. This diversification mitigates risks associated with reliance on a single revenue source, allowing for stability even during economic downturns.
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Global Expansion Strategy: Through strategic acquisitions and partnerships, Rakuten has expanded its footprint internationally. Its ability to enter diverse markets while adapting services to local needs offers a competitive edge over many more localized players.
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Technological Infrastructure: Rakuten invests heavily in technology, enhancing its platform’s efficiency and user experience. Their focus on data analytics and AI allows for personalized shopping experiences and targeted marketing strategies, making it harder for competitors to match their offerings.
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Partnerships and Affiliations: Rakuten has established strong partnerships with various companies, including a prominent association with big brands and local businesses. These collaborations enhance the product range available on its platform and provide additional marketing channels.
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Telecom Investment: With the launch of its mobile network service, Rakuten Mobile, the company has effectively entered the telecommunications market, further expanding its ecosystem. This not only boosts customer retention but also creates cross-selling opportunities within its various service offerings.
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Focus on Sustainability: Rakuten’s commitment to sustainability and social responsibility resonates well with increasingly environmentally conscious consumers. This positioning can attract a loyal customer base that values ethical practices.
These competitive advantages allow Rakuten Group Inc. to maintain a leading position in the marketplace while successfully navigating the challenges posed by rival companies.
Rakuten Group Inc, as a major player in e-commerce, fintech, telecommunications, and other sectors, faces several risks and challenges in the near future:
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Intense Competition: The e-commerce and digital services markets are highly competitive, with major players like Amazon, Alibaba, and local competitors in Japan. This competition can lead to margin pressures and the necessity for continuous innovation.
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Regulatory Challenges: As a diversified company operating in multiple sectors, Rakuten is subject to various regulatory environments. Changes in regulations, especially concerning data privacy, antitrust issues, and financial services, could impact operations and profitability.
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Economic Volatility: Economic downturns, inflation, and changes in consumer spending habits can adversely affect sales. The global economic landscape can significantly impact Rakuten’s performance, especially in the wake of ongoing geopolitical tensions or financial crises.
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Technological Disruption: Rapid technological advancements could render some of Rakuten’s services or business models obsolete. Continuous investment in technology and innovation is essential to stay ahead.
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Supply Chain Risks: Disruptions in global supply chains, whether due to natural disasters, pandemics, or geopolitical tensions, can affect the availability of products and services, impacting e-commerce operations.
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Customer Acquisition and Retention: As competition increases, so does the challenge of retaining customers and acquiring new ones. Higher marketing costs to attract users can squeeze profitability.
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Financial Services Risk: Rakuten operates in various financial segments, including banking and securities. Regulatory scrutiny and bad debt from loans could pose risks in this area.
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International Expansion Challenges: Expanding into new markets can be fraught with challenges, including cultural differences, local competition, and varying regulations that can inhibit growth and synergy.
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Cybersecurity Threats: As a digital service provider, Rakuten is at risk of cyber-attacks, which can lead to data breaches, loss of customer trust, and hefty financial penalties.
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Sustainability Concerns: Growing customer expectation for sustainable practices may require Rakuten to adapt its business models and supply chains, which may involve significant investments.
To navigate these challenges, Rakuten will need to employ strategic planning, invest in technology, maintain regulatory compliance, and foster customer loyalty while ensuring sustainable growth.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Rakuten Group Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Rakuten Group Inc
Current Assets | 6.3T |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 5.9T |
Receivables | 344.1B |
Non-Current Assets | 18.5T |
Long-Term Investments | 7.9T |
PP&E | 1.2T |
Intangibles | 1.1T |
Other Non-Current Assets | 8.3T |
Current Liabilities | 988.2B |
Accounts Payable | 367.6B |
Other Current Liabilities | 620.6B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 23T |
Long-Term Debt | 4.8T |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 18.1T |
Earnings Waterfall
Rakuten Group Inc
Revenue
|
2.1T
JPY
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-2.2T
JPY
|
Gross Profit
|
-84B
JPY
|
Operating Expenses
|
-8.7B
JPY
|
Operating Income
|
-92.7B
JPY
|
Other Expenses
|
-182.7B
JPY
|
Net Income
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-275.5B
JPY
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Rakuten Group Inc
JPY | |
Free Cash Flow | JPY |
In the third quarter of 2023, Rakuten achieved record revenues of JPY 566.7 billion, up 9.3% year-over-year, with Rakuten Mobile contributing 40% to growth. The non-GAAP operating income improved to JPY 12.3 billion, while consolidated EBITDA soared by 159.1% to JPY 92.2 billion. Customer support costs were significantly reduced by 31% through AI enhancements. Notably, mobile subscribers reached 8.12 million as average revenue per user (ARPU) aimed for JPY 3,000. With anticipated revenue growth across all segments, Rakuten is targeting profitability in mobile operations by 2024 and an overall profit in 2025.
What is Earnings Call?
Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Rakuten Group Inc's profitability score is 30/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Rakuten Group Inc's profitability score is 30/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Rakuten Group Inc's solvency score is 30/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Rakuten Group Inc's solvency score is 30/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
Price Targets Summary
Rakuten Group Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for Rakuten Group Inc is 1 109.39 JPY with a low forecast of 909 JPY and a high forecast of 1 680 JPY.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for Rakuten Group Inc is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
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Dividend Yield
Description
Rakuten Group, Inc. engages in the business of Internet services. The company is headquartered in Setagaya, Tokyo-To and currently employs 28,261 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2000-04-19. The firm operates through three business segments. The Internet Service segment is mainly engaged in the operation of Internet shopping mall Website Rakuten Market and other electronic commerce (EC) Websites, online cashback Websites, travel reservation Websites, portal Websites. The segment is also involved in the sale of advertisements on these Websites, as well as the operation of professional sports facilities. The FinTech segment is engaged in the provision of banking and securities services via the Internet, credit cards related services, life insurance services, insurance services and electronic money services. The Mobile segment is engaged in the provision of communication services and messaging services, as well as operation of digital content Websites. The firm also operates marketing support busines, Rakuten delivery business and real-time takeout business.
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The intrinsic value of one Rakuten Group Inc stock under the Base Case scenario is 1 512.28 JPY.
Compared to the current market price of 891.9 JPY, Rakuten Group Inc is Undervalued by 41%.