Kao Corp

TSE:4452

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q2

[Masakazu Negoro, executive]

Thank you very much for taking time out of your busy schedule to join us today. This is my first time to speak in this briefing. I'd like to give an overview of the consolidated financial results for about 20 minutes, skipping over some pages since there is a lot of information in the materials.

Could you please turn to Page 5 of the material? These are the highlights of the consolidated financial results. Net sales for the first half of fiscal year 2022 were JPY 733.9 billion, up 8.7% from the previous year or up 4.2%, excluding the impact of exchange rates. Operating income was JPY 53.7 billion, down 23.9% year-on-year and operating margin was 7.3%.

Net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY 38.9 billion, down 26.0% year-on-year. Free cash flow was negative JPY 23.4 billion due to a decrease in income before amortization and an increase in inventories due to foreign exchange and raw material price rises.

Please look at the overview of the consolidated financial results on Page 6. As written at the top, we aggressively conducted strategic price increases for H&PC products and cost structure reforms and total cost reduction or TCR activities. Also, we started a sales offensive in H&PC in Japan from Q2. However, due to raw material price increases at the high end of our expected range and lockdowns in China, net sales increased, but operating income decreased year-on-year. The biggest negative factor was the soaring raw material prices, which had a growth impact of JPY 52 billion and a net impact of JPY 18 billion.

In addition, there were lockdowns in China and logistics disruptions in the United States, which were caused by labor shortages. Such factors led to these results. On the other hand, we were actively conducting shareholder returns. As for the stock repurchase that we announced at the time of Q1 results, we are continuing to conduct stock repurchases up to the limit of JPY 50 billion. Furthermore, the interim cash dividend for fiscal year 2022 has been increased to JPY 74 per share, in line with the announced forecast.

Please turn to Page 10 for quarterly consolidated results by segment. This shows the changes in net sales and operating income by segment from the first quarter to the second quarter. If you make a comparison between first quarter and second quarter, in the second quarter, on the right-hand side, sales and income increased in Consumer Products, Chemical and all segments, except for Hygiene & Living Care.

If you look at lower right, you see that only the Hygiene & Living Care is positive in sales and negative in income. This is a category that is most affected by raw materials and approximately 70% of the raw material price impact were concentrated in this category.

In fact, the material cost was approximately JPY 6.5 billion in Q1 and JPY 8 billion in Q2, an increase of JPY 1.5 billion. But the fact that we were able to achieve operating income almost on par with the first quarter shows that the volume increase and price hikes are having effects.

The next bar, Health & Beauty Care showed a very strong increase in income. This is because UV care products performed very well, and the skin care business in the United States improved due to the resolution of logistics problems and other factors. Two bars to the right, Cosmetics was affected by the lockdown in Shanghai and is down year-on-year. As for Chemical on the far right, both sales and income rose in Q2 as it did in Q1. Growth in operating income is being realized by achieving sufficient price pass-through and adding higher value.

Please skip one page and turn to the analysis of change in consolidated operating income on Page 12. This graph breaks down the JPY 16.9 billion decrease in income for the January to June period. Blue is positive and Orange is negative. The impact of change in raw material prices was negative JPY 18 billion. Impact of lockdown, another JPY 4 billion, and surge in logistics expenses cost JPY 4 billion. On the other hand, increase in sales had a positive impact of JPY 1 billion. Strategic price increase, JPY 4 billion, another JPY 4 billion from TCR and JPY 4.1 billion from foreign exchange and others. With these, we try to beat back the negatives, but we were not totally successful, resulting in a JPY 16.9 billion decrease in profit.

Please turn to the next page, Page 13. This is a table summarizing the results of the CP or Consumer Products business in the first half of the fiscal year, although the work is not yet complete.

For the stable earnings area, we are strengthening the laundry detergent brand, Attack to increase market share, which is over 40% in July and trending strongly.

In the dishwashing detergent business, the CuCute brand has solidified its #1 market share and currently holds a market share of nearly 48%. For the growth driver areas, we are continuing to see growth in our focal G11 cosmetics. UV care products, such as Bioré UV Aqua product lotion and Aqua product mist, which you may have already used are performing very well and making a significant contribution.

With the current heat wave, the market is growing and our share is also increasing at the same time. We have high expectations for these products, and we really want to try to grow our sales in this category.

Meanwhile, in the business transformation area, sanitary napkins achieved 105% year-on-year growth, thanks in part to marketing innovations and the ORIBE brand for the salon business in the United States continued to do well even under COVID, achieving 107% year-on-year growth, thanks in part to the use of digital technology. So not all, but we are seeing more businesses that are increasing market share and growing year-on-year.

Next, I'd like to move on to the consolidated operating results forecast for fiscal year 2022. Please turn to Page 15. Here are the major assumptions for the fiscal year 2022 forecast. In the consumer products market, especially in the all important Japanese market, the speed of recovery is slightly delayed due to the resurgence of COVID infections, but we expect demand to increase in the midst of the current heat wave.

In Asia, China's economic growth is slowing, but lockdowns are subsiding, and there is no doubt that the economy is on the road to recovery. In Americas and Europe, there are concerns about economic slowdown due to inflation, but the markets are still growing moderately.

In the chemical market, the situation is a bit different from consumer markets in that prices of fats and oils, which have led the price hikes are falling a little, and it is a little uncertain whether we will be able to maintain sales in the second half of the year.

I think it will likely enter a period of correction, but the semiconductor market remains strong. In the automotive industry, due partly to semiconductor shortages, growth will be limited. So overall, in industry recession is a cause for concern. Under these circumstances, we are projecting a full year net sales of JPY 1.57 trillion, a 5% increase in like-for-like growth over the previous year. We expect JPY 40 billion impact from change in raw material prices unchanged from our announcement at the end of Q1, impact of cost reduction activities will be increased to JPY 10 billion. Capital expenditures will be JPY 80 billion. The annual average exchange rate forecast is JPY 130 per dollar, which was previously JPY 110 per dollar. So this has been revised.

Please take a look at the next page, Page 16. This is a summary of raw materials price impact, the biggest factor from 2015. As you can see, there is no significant change from 2016 to 2020. If anything, there was a marginal gain.

So next point is that in 2021, there was negative impact from the Consumer Products business alone of more than JPY 10 billion year-on-year. And we said at last fiscal year's briefing that this impact is large. However, from a bird's eye view, compared to 2015, it was not a significant impact. The increase for 2022 on the other hand is an unprecedented JPY 40 billion per year-on-year or JPY 45 billion vis-à-vis 2015. This is a simple comparison with 2015 using the annual average exchange rate for each year. So please look at this to observe the overall trend instead of drilling down on detailed numbers.

One more important feature of 2022 is that the gray area at the top of the chart has a very large share of the total. What is unique about this time is that the prices of such things as pulp and paper, silicon inorganic products, areas that have not seen price increases in the past are rising.

Please turn to the next page, Page 17. In light of the market environment, and the sharp rise in raw material prices that I have just explained, we have decided to revise our initial forecast for fiscal year 2022. As you can see here, we have revised upward our initial forecast for net sales by JPY 80 billion to JPY 1.570 trillion, while revising downward the operating income forecast by JPY 15 billion from the initial figure of JPY 160 billion to JPY 145 billion.

Net income attributable to owners of the parent is revised downward by JPY 6 billion from JPY 117 billion to JPY 111 billion. Although we are making a downward revision, we are determined to achieve an increase in both net sales and operating income over fiscal year '21, no matter what, and are formulating a plan to achieve this goal.

Please take a look at the next page. This graph shows the breakdown of the downward revision from JPY 160 billion to JPY 145 billion. Although there is some overlap with the previous graph, the external environment impact increased by JPY 29 billion from the JPY 11 billion projected at the time of the announcement on February 3, 2022 to JPY 40 billion. There were also higher logistics cost, lockdowns in China, delay in recovery from the COVID pandemic and changes in sales plans due to competition, which was JPY 6 billion. We are planning to add additional strategic price hikes to bring it to JPY 15 billion, and we are also planning cost structure reforms, additional TCR and the introduction of new and improved products, doing everything we can to bring the total to JPY 145 billion. Still, that was not enough to offset the cost increases, and we have a gap of JPY 15 billion.

Now please take a look at the next page. There are 2 key measures for the second half of the fiscal year. One is strategic price increases and the other is increasing sales.

This slide summarizes our efforts for price increases, progress in the first half and our plans for the second half. In the first half, we raised prices as planned, mainly for public care and disposable baby diapers in Japan and for laundry detergents and skin care products overseas. The effect was almost as expected.

In the second half, we plan to expand strategic price increases in categories where we have not yet implemented them. In particular, we are considering targeting products with strong brand power and high market share. In both cases, we intend to expand price increase with the understanding of our distribution partners.

The table below summarizes the effects of strategic price increases. First half results in Japan were JPY 2 billion. That was to continue. So JPY 4 billion in the second half, and we are now making preparations to raise prices by another JPY 3 billion in the fourth quarter. In total, we are determined to achieve price hikes totaling JPY 15 billion.

Please take a look at the next page. This shows how much strategic price hikes we were able to achieve from Q1 to Q2 to show the trend with selling price on the vertical axis, and the volume on the horizontal access. The graph shows how the products in each category changed their position from the previous year in each quarter, excluding the impact of raw materials. This then allows you to see the shift from Q1 to Q2. First, disposable baby diapers from Q1 to the left to Q2 on the right. It has moved steadily to the erection of selling price increase; volume, on the other hand, increased slightly.

As for laundry detergents, the volume has fallen slightly from the first quarter, but the selling price has steadily increased, including through downsizing of products. As I mentioned earlier, we will continue to work to increase our volume and market share. So our goal for the third quarter and beyond is to bring this to the right side of the chart.

And if you could take a look at the skin care section, we have made great progress in this area. Although we have not raised the prices of our products, we have high value-added products, UV care products, volume increases and rise in selling price. As you can see, the trend is toward a definite improvement in profitability.

Next, please turn to Page 21. So we are aiming to achieve the revised earnings forecast. Another key point is growing the top line.

Under Reborn Kao, how are we able to grow the top line, both from the stable earnings business and the growth drivers? This is very important. In Fabric Care Business, as I have been saying from before, Attack and Humming market share expansion and increasing the overall profitability of the entire category and Home Care, we have to continue share expansion, at the same time, improve profitability. In any case, introducing many new brands in the stable earnings business and growth drivers and taking many initiatives. In other words, be on the offensive. This is the plan that we have.

In cosmetics and the growth drivers business, KATE is performing well. TWANY offers technologically innovative products such as hiding nasolabial lines. We will launch this type of product in the second half.

For Curél, up to now, we have been manufacturing this in Japan. We will start to manufacture and sell high add value products in China that matches the needs of the Chinese consumers. And for the Cosmetics business, the D2C business will start in a full-fledged manner.

In the Chemical Business, we will start shipment of one-of-a-kind products. So we will be using cellulose and fiber, which are the sustainable material and introduce it to the growing semiconductor market. This is the shipping one of a kind products. And by doing so, we want to further enhance our added value.

For the Skin Care business, in Bioré, we want to cultivate and enhance high value-added cleansing products. For the stable earnings business and the growth drivers, we want to be on the offensive for both sales and marketing activities.

So this will be the last page for me. This is Page 22. This is a sales forecast by segment. In terms of sales, the Chemical Business, 18.8%; the Consumer Products, 1.4% growth; and the Cosmetics Business, we want to grow that included in the second half. For the Health & Beauty Business, due to the very hot summer, it is minus 0.2%, but we want to bring it to positive growth.

That is all for the second quarter results for the fiscal year 2022 and the full year forecast. Thank you.

[Yoshihiro Hasebe, executive]

So first of all, thank you very much for participating despite difficult conditions, and thank you for joining remotely as well. From my side, I will talk more in detail about the strategic price increases, which Mr. Negoro mentioned and our current status. And at the same time, I want to also explain about our future policies.

First, Page 24. In the beginning of February, I stated that unprecedented price hike is going to happen. I declare that we will make a structure strong, so we will not be influenced by the market conditions. We -- I said that we are determined to conduct strategic price increases, if necessary. And it goes without saying that we will have to increase the ratio of high value-added products.

So how were our results? And how was our strategic initiatives aiming to achieve competitive advantage? I would like to give you a summary. Please turn to Page 25. This is the price increase situation of Merries in Japan in the 10 major retailers. The vertical axis is the increase in decline of market share. The horizontal axis is the average shipping price to show whether it has gone up or down. Normally, basically, it is on the lower right-hand side. If you increase the price, you lose market share. The composition among the 10 retailers, this happened in 15% of sales. But less -- it has been less than expected. The share decline was 2% to 2.8%, and we have achieved a 1% to 4% average shipping price increase, surprisingly. In 65% of sales, 5% to 20% average shipping price saw an increase. At the same time, we have been able to improve our share. This is because we enforce initiatives closely working with the retailers. We did not expect this from the start, but gain confidence by being able to achieve this.

Now fortunately, on the left zone, we have been able to increase the share, but the average shipping price has decreased. Why did this happen? This is due to the price mix. Lower priced products sold well. On the other hand, the bigger, higher products did not sell well. This is about 20% of sales. The next step is to -- how to bring the sales from the left to the lower part and bring it up to the upper right-hand side. I think this will be the key.

Going to Page 26. So from the first quarter to second quarter against the previous year, how has our performance been tracking? Overall, we have seen a 0.9% of recovery. We have been continuously increasing our share. On the left, there has been 19 categories that we have been able to increase the share. This year, it has increased to 42. For the categories, unfortunately, that we lost market share in the previous year was 55 categories. This year, we have been able to reduce it to 32. The major categories were written below. Unfortunately, among the 32 categories that we lost market share, there are shampoos and conditioners. The small mass category is expanding, but we are not doing enough to adjust this kind of situation.

Turning to Page 27. I would like to talk about the 3 areas where we are transforming to build a robust business through investment. First, the stable earnings business, the market share went up in 10 categories and down in 10 categories. The major categories are shown on this slide. The average share increase was 0.71%. The average share decrease was 0.64%. So gradually, we have been able to improve the stable earnings business. In the middle, we have the growth driver business. The main category here will be skin care. In the 7 major categories, the average share increase was 1.6%. Unfortunately, in 3 categories, the share went down by 2.0%.

Cosmetic sales was better than expectation. So for G11, 105% against last year and R8 was 99% compared to the previous year.

I would like to talk about the 2 categories under our business transformation strategy. First about the hair care business, where the 3 basic categories went down by 0.1%. So this will be shampoos and conditioners, hair styling and hair color. In total, it went down average by 0.1%. So we must turn this business around immediately. In the sanitary category, more and more products show increase in market share. In the major 3 categories, the share went up by 1%. And as I have said, for the diapers for babies, price increase has been successful. In the second half, I think these things will change dramatically.

Going to Page 28. I did not explain clearly how we are going to conduct business transformation up to this point. I want to share a direction in terms of what the management wants to achieve. First, the structural reform of the hair care business in Japan.

The hair care business used to be a high-margin, high share business. Kao's regeneration cannot be achieved without the turnaround of this business. So we're going to change the existing strategy dramatically. So we have Essential, Merit, Segreta. These businesses -- for these type of businesses, we will fight based on technological value and position these science-based general-purpose products. We will not increase prices for this category. However, through overwhelming focus on technological value, we will compete in areas such as the beauty -- beauty care, the natural care and the aging care. However, the market trend is high value added. There are many small companies here. So we will take unprecedented initiatives. We will introduce global brands all over the world, that is very unique into the Japanese market. And we will introduce unique cosmetics products. And in the global and cosmetics area, Kao has a lot of assets. 50% of the hair care business is overseas. We will introduce powerful and unique products into Japan.

Currently, we are suffering in the premium category, but I want to conduct reforms and change the situation dramatically. We will utilize digital technology to enhance our business in this area and enhance our business in the premium in general with different tactics. With limited retailers, we will conclude a special contract and focus on [ EC ] and D2C. These will be the areas that we're going to compete. We have conducted a lot of discussions as to how to compete in this area. Some of our retailers are already on board. In the near future, I think we'll be able to show how we are going to fight more specifically.

Please turn to Page 29. So for the diaper business, this has been the source of concern. We are going to drastically change the way of doing business compared to our giant competitors and companies specializing in baby diapers. In short, transition to an ESG-oriented diaper business. It will be difficult for other companies to take this road. The guideline for the strategy is more comfortable time, less usage, but feeling more comfortable. We are going towards that direction. While this business tends to not -- consumers to use more diapers, but we are going in the opposite direction. We want customers to spend as much comfortable time as possible with less usage.

Another point is making diapers more compact and make less burden on the environment. The problem of waste is pressing. If we've deployed the existing diaper model globally, there will be a huge amount of waste that will be generated. We will go forward with 2 strategic guidelines.

So in terms of the core values we have three-fold for the customers by far, the most gentle on the skin. And of course, by far, the most impact and excuse me, by compact and light. Of course, we'll keep the promise of leakproof. On top of that, the message is that our products have the least amount of waste.

Last year, in China, this new Merries manufactured in China, the core value is that you can use this a long time after baby urinate and does not become puffy and can maintain thinness. The progress of diapers will be a milestone to where we ultimately want to go as Kao. So carbonizing used diapers into useful materials is being conducted in Japan. We will enhance this activity. Ultimately, this will be deployed on a global level. The local production for local consumption will be realized with small-scale facilities, and we will be utilizing digital technologies so that this initiative can be disseminated with speed. So we will not be expanding the volume, but we want to boldly change the direction so that we can be profitable without relying on volume expansion.

Going to Page 30. We have been criticized that we are slow to roll out our business globally. Please take a look from my view and my progress in this matter. First of all, starting from the Chemical Business, we have the oleo chemicals, performance chemicals and information materials. In terms of the first half sales of this fiscal year, it is already 78% sales coming from overseas. Even if the overall sales composition changes in the future, I will not change our target for high overseas sales ratio. Actually, I will accelerate this objective.

Hygiene & Living Care, our foundation business, currently the competition is very fierce and overseas sales ratio is still 10%. But we will solidify this level and then move forward into the global stage again. For the sanitary products, that will be feminine care and baby diapers. Already, these products has more than 50% sales coming from Asia. We will accelerate this initiative. So the policy we have explained [ the whole area ] of feminine care products, napkins and diapers for adults and baby diapers, we are determined to compete on all fronts. In this category, we want to grow through utilizing our own tactics.

Well, the Health & Beauty Care business, skin care is the most promising for global growth. Already 45% is overseas sales. The focus is hair salon and hair care products. As stated, 32% of hair care products were mass market and 99% of hair salon products is from overseas.

In total, if you include Japan, 50% of our hair care category is in overseas. According to my playbook, bringing in global brands into Japan is necessary. In the overseas hair care business, unique brands competed with utilization of digital technology as a prerequisite. We will bring this into Japan and compete.

For the Cosmetic Business, G11 has started to grow, and we will further accelerate overseas sales. Life Care Business is a foothold to global business in the first place. And the business composition here is based on the precondition that it will utilize digital technology to expand into the global stage.

Lastly, this is Page 31. So 2022 policy is Reborn Kao. Mr. Negoro and I have talked about this. We must achieve Reborn Kao. The business here will be the foundation and the engine of our overall business growth. Another Kao will be on top of this, connecting these 2 areas. The first step that we are taking in health care is the precursor of dramatically transforming our Bioré brand with a mosquito repellent. For the position, Life Care and Digital will be the first steps for the transformation of Life Care Business, such as our beverage business and KPS business. Utilizing waste PET for high durable road payments, thankfully, in July, we received the Resilience award. This was appreciated by Japan as a country. We are putting all efforts so that this can be a standard in Japan as well as a global standard. This is a new challenge of recycling that the Chemical Business was not able to do up to now.

In Another Kao with Reborn Kao as a foundation, we will compete in a way that was not possible for us in the past. I talked about the progress of 2022. For FY 2023, we want to show how this business has progressed in a more explosive manner. Please look forward to that.

Currently, the market condition is not easy. Our outlook is tough. But I believe that we are a company that have been able to generate profit on the wide range of business domains and took on challenges. Our target figures we have announced is a target that we are determined to achieve putting in all our efforts. This will be our touchstone, so we are determined to achieve results.

Thank you in advance for your support. That's all from me. Thank you very much.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]