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Kao Corp
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Now we'd like to start the presentation. Mr. Yamauchi, over to you.
Thank you. As usual, I'd like to start with the market situation on Page 3. The blue line on the left side of the graph shows the market situation in the previous year, which was around 100 or so. For Q1 this year as well, staying at home trends were ongoing, leading to a lackluster situation. The cosmetics market on the right side of the graph also showed signs of recovery in January as shown in blue, but the results were 102 after 99 and 99, which was also a lackluster. As for cosmetics specifically, the situation is still not as good as it was pre-COVID-19, with the domestic market still trending at 70% to 80% against pre-COVID levels. Turning to Page 4. Regarding the overseas business. As you all know, the situation in China has been deteriorating considerably since March due to the impact of COVID-19-related lockdowns. Indonesia, on the other hand, is doing very well. Thailand has also showed considerable signs of recovery. Europe and the U.S. are close to full recovery and pretty much back to normal times.
Next, turning to Page 5. Here, we show the results highlights. First, sales were JPY 346.8 billion, up 8.2%, which looks quite high on the surface, but foreign exchange rate impact was accounted for, which led to a 3.4% increase -- excluding this impact, the increase was 4.8% in real terms. However, for the 4.8% rise, this was largely due to the selling price of chemicals, which reflected the increase in raw material prices. So unfortunately, household and personal care was negative year-on-year. As a result, operating income was JPY 23 billion, down 25.8% from the previous year. Sales of household and personal care products did not grow much and the impact from raw material prices led to these numbers. However, we knew from the beginning that the situation would be difficult. So when comparing Q1 results against the budget, the results were not that bad, and we view this as a decent start. Please also refer to profit after tax and other items on this slide. Please turn to Page 6. The overview is shown in the box in the middle of the page.
First, as a positive factor. The adjustment of selling prices in the chemical business is proceeding well. Some of the price increases are automatic, but there are also areas where we are consciously raising prices. In China and Europe, China did well specifically in Q1, and sales of cosmetics in China and Europe were very strong. Structural reforms and cost control are proceeding as planned. The negative factors on the right are the impact of raw material prices, which are negative factors, which we initially said would increase by JPY 11 billion on a net basis over the previous year. But we have already been impacted by JPY 8 billion on a net basis in Q1. This is a little bit more than expected. Also, our U.S. subsidiary has been affected by logistics disruptions, and it will take some time to recover. Furthermore, the domestic cosmetic business was completely affected by stay-at-homes trends for the quarter, so we came in behind plan. Despite the situation, we were able to achieve decent figures for cosmetics that led to the overall results you see here. Also, regarding shareholder returns.
Today, we announced a JPY 50 billion share repurchase. We will use cash flow for capital investment, M&A opportunities and dividends. And if there are still cash available, we would like to buy back our own shares. Please go to Page 7. This shows the status of sales. As you can see immediately in the bottom chart, indicating the year-on-year growth rates, those is not performing well, our Hygiene and Living Care and Health and Beauty care in Japan. As I have been saying, those are the figures that we had initially anticipated. The first quarter happened to be the period when a series of measures had yet to be taken, and we need to put severe through the quarter. But from the second quarter, one measure after another is being launched, and I'm sure some of you have seen our TV commercials, including those who humming and Attack ZERO to come. So we can expect benefiting from them. In Health and Beauty Care, the negative growth in the U.S. was a severe blow to us, but this was canceled out by the performance in Europe.
In cosmetics, despite difficulties, we performed okay in Japan, and China was quite strong with a 17% growth in the first quarter. While COVID-19 lockdowns are being prolonged, the brands themselves are so strong in China that without any hindrance, we would be seeing an outstanding result. In Europe, SENSAI and Morten Brown performed well. So things are going well with cosmetics. As for chemical products, as I said, rises in raw materials costs were passed on to selling prices, which led to the steady results. Please turn to Page 8. The net sales, which I referred to as shown on the left, while the operating income is on the right. In terms of net sales, Hygiene and Living Care and Health and Beauty Care with domestic business was challenging, bore the plant of rising raw material costs, leading to a significant drop from the year before, but they were offset by cosmetics and chemicals segments. To what extent we will be able to recover in household and personal care products and how much we can grow cosmetics is what we are planning for.
Please go to Page 9. The analysis of the profit is quite simple. In sales, the chemicals segment grew year-on-year. Consumer products, including cosmetics, remained almost flat from the year before, while at the same time, we are hit by the rising raw material costs and the net impact was reflected directly in the operating income. Moreover, freight and logistics expenses also rose as usual, which we hope to offset with cost reductions in other areas.
Please turn to Page 10. In the first quarter, it was not the case that we sat back and took no measures. But obviously, we did a lot of different measures. Among them, the ones with steady results are indicated here. In stable earnings, TV commercials were launched for Humming, fabric softener in Fabric Care segment. Some of you may have seen them. With the commercials, we are hoping to raise its awareness among young people, and we have had responses already, which will be followed by additional measures one after another from the second quarter onward. Under the growth driver in Cosmetics segment, strong results were seen for China, which is the market that we are trying to grow and for Europe with a 32% year-on-year growth. Under business transformation, [indiscernible] products has been changing its marketing technique to enhance brand loyalty. By disseminating what is called brand purposes, we expect the effect to be seen in a slow but steady manner. That said, L'Oréal performed relatively well in the first quarter, which makes us realize that we are starting to see tangible results.
Please go to Page 11. So far, I discussed the actual results of the first quarter, but now I will talk about how things will play out going forward. As described in the table, market conditions that should be taken into account include raw material prices remaining high. The situation is quite difficult, but that is what we are facing. Moreover, to what extent the COVID-19 outbreak spread in China is another one. Had it been subsided by now, this wouldn't have been a problem, but it still lingers on. Cosmetics business in Japan was lagging behind already in the first quarter. The key is how we will be able to grow the business going forward. Looking at some of the measures we are taking, the effect of domestic price hikes will start to materialize from Q2. So we will be focusing on those price hikes. And also initiatives of [indiscernible] as I have already mentioned, going forward, various measures will be introduced one after another. So it is a matter of how much we can recover through these measures. Also, we will continue to steadily implement structural reforms, cost control and PCR.
Strategic price increases are detailed on Page 12. First, we are promoting strategic price increases globally, including downsizing of products. We are already starting to see some positive results in the U.S. and Asia. And as we have written below, we have already completed negotiations for substantive price increases that we decided to pursue when we were making the plan with assumptions of net raw material cost to increase by JPY 11 billion. The effects of these price hikes will start to be seen in Q2. However, there have been further developments. So as vision below, we expect a maximum raw material price impact of JPY 30 billion to JPY 40 billion. We are now considering actions to absorb this additional increase, including further price increases, and we'll implement them. As for the price increase, we wondered how it would go since it was sort of a first attempt in the industry, but it was relatively well accepted. Other companies and retailers are also starting to say there is no momentum to raise prices, that there is an area of inevitability of price hikes. And so we are hoping that it will gradually become easier to raise prices. We will also continue to work to raise prices in the Chemicals business as well.
Page 13, initiatives of [indiscernible] are described here. In Fabric Care, in particular, we will be hitting the market with new and improved products, some of which include substantive price increases. The same is true for home care products. We are taking steps one after another. So we would like to watch what happens in Q2 and Q3 with positive anticipation. In the Cosmetics business, G11 is proceeding according to our aim, of course, it doesn't mean that everyone of G11 is on target. But overall, they are growing steadily. So we want to realize the recovery here led by the domestic market. As for the Chinese Covid situation, I don't think there is anyone who knows what will happen. We are starting locally produced and locally consumed model like Curél. We have started such trials. And since Curél and freeplus are very strong, we'd like to continue on the current path. As for the business transformation, I have already explained about sanitary products. For hair care business, we'd like to consider both shifting to Vistar in the future.
Page 14. Lastly, the graph shows sales figures, reflecting what I have just described in the below. Unfortunately, Q2 sales of cosmetics have dropped a little due to the China issue I mentioned earlier. Barring that impact, sales would have been a little higher. How much we can recover in Q3 and Q4 will be the challenge going forward. Also, it has been our plan to see recovery in Household and Personal Care from Q2. The impact of price increases will start to appear. So along that in mind, we will aim to achieve our goal. For Chemicals, we had started price increases since last year, so things should start to settle down and our somewhat conservative sales plan reflects that. But I think we can achieve solid results here. That's all for me.
Thank you, Mr. Yamauchi. Now we would like to start the Q&A session. Ms. Miyasako from Jefferies Securities.
This is Miyasako from Jefferies. I'd like to ask you about the impact of raw materials, which I think means that the estimated impact is JPY 20 billion to JPY 30 billion more than the initial forecast. I think you also mentioned that you are going to raise prices further. But I was wondering if you could give us some more details about how much you're going to raise prices and what kind of products you're going to further raise prices up? And how much you're going to reduce cost because this is an important point. Can you give out as much detail as possible?
Yes. Sure. We are planning to raise prices for certain products. But as it is yet to take place, we are not able to tell you which ones right now. However, we are not talking about simple price increases, but rather, it's more about discounts, which we have been doing a lot of up until now. We will consult the chain stores to reduce the number of discounts and promotional materials so that it will literally be a price increase in the end. Downsizing and other measures are also included in our plan going forward.
At the beginning of the fiscal year, originally, you were talking about diapers and Fabric Care products, but are you planning to expand the scope a little more? Or are you planning to expand into the overseas regions? Even so, I believe that only about 70% of the JPY 11 billion is covered with this. So does this mean that there has been a considerable number of additions?
Well, yes, that's right. The products you mentioned as well as other products, too. We are currently making considerations.
Then with the additions, how much more do you expect to offset? I'm not sure how much additional price increases can make up for? Also, how about cost reductions? Because you are expecting additional raw material costs, I wonder if you will really be able to achieve this plan because the countermeasures you just explained are quite big.
Well, I think we can offset about half of it by raising prices. We are now planning for cost reductions to make up for the rest. However, cost reductions will be carried out through negotiations with each department. So we are now in the process of adding up how much cost we can reduce. Thank you for your question.
The next person is Ms. Yamaguchi from Goldman Sachs.
I am Yamaguchi from Goldman. Thank you for taking my question. About the net cost increase of JPY 30 billion to JPY 40 billion. Can you break it down by preferably by material by region, also by consumer and chemical?
My name is [ Makino ], Financial Controller. For crude oil, we are assuming $110 per barrel and for fats and oils, $2,300 is our assumption.
Thank you. That's very helpful. But can you give me a better sense of the JPY 30 billion to JPY 40 billion decline in profits by material? Because up until now, you were guiding paper pulp to have a minus JPY 5 billion impact and fats and oils plus JPY 10 billion; and Petrochemicals, a minus JPY 15 billion impact on earnings. But how will the JPY 30 billion to JPY 40 billion be broken down now?
Ms. Yamaguchi, we would like to look into that. So do you have any other questions right now?
I see. I think most of this information can be found under consumer products. But I also wanted to ask if the depreciation of the yen was also accounted for. I hope that can be shared with everyone, too. I believe that profits need to increase from here considering where we are now, but I was quite surprised that the profit for the first quarter was in line with the company's plan. This basically means that you have quite high expectations from Q2 onwards, but higher raw material costs are going to kick in from Q2 onwards, too, which makes me feel that the risk is high. Since you've already showed the sales forecast for the second quarter and beyond on Page 14, could you tell us when you expect profits to turn around?
This is Yamauchi speaking. When you were asking the question about raw materials, did you mean how much the impact from pulp, for example, is going to be and so forth?
Yes, that's right.
For pulp, prices have already risen by 40% to 50%. So that's the level of impact we are expecting. For crude oil, prices have already risen by more than 60%. The price of fats and oils has risen by 70% to 80%. So if we assume that prices are going to stay at high levels, the maximum impact will be JPY 30 billion to JPY 40 billion. The price of fats and oils is on the verge of falling a little, so we are hoping that the impact will not be as high as we're assuming. Most of the impact is going to be on the entire Household and Personal Care business, especially Fabric Care.
Thank you. You always inform us about the magnitude of the decrease in profit for each material. So please get back to us about it later.
All right.
Also, can you give us a brief comment on the trend of profits.
Regarding profits, we will strive for a recovery in profits in Q2 and Q3, and we will have to see how things unfold. But there will be a series of new product launches in Q2, Q3and Q4. So when certain products start to perform well, we should see profits jump up.
I see. So at this point, I guess it's too early to say when profits are going to increase again?
Yes. It's too early to tell. We are now thinking that Q2 will be a bit difficult because of the risk that materialized in China.
Ms. Yamaguchi, in the first part of your question, you mentioned that you were a little surprised to hear that the operating income plan for the first quarter was quite low. So allow me to comment on that. The impact from the surge in raw material prices was close to none in the first half of last fiscal year. And in the second half, there was a large negative impact of JPY 16 billion. So when we started the first half of the current fiscal year, we were under the same conditions. Therefore, comparing the first halves year-over-year as we were expecting a significant impact from raw materials compared to last year, we were budgeting for Q1 to be far below last year levels.
The next person is Mr. Ohana from Okasan Securities.
This is Ohana from Okasan Securities. I have a question about the domestic consumer products business sales. I think that both Household and Personal Care and Cosmetics were a little weak. You showed the market environment on the first page of the presentation. But the detergents business as well as your company's core businesses are still weak compared to the market. In the Cosmetics business, the market for makeup and other products in which you have a high percentage of sales is slightly higher than the previous year. But your domestic sales of cosmetics are only up 2%. I am not sure if this can be explained entirely by upcoming product renewals in Q2. So can you give us more detail about these factor?
Well, for cosmetics, the market for makeup and other products look like this because there are many products that are released into the market. But when you look at the market among the major companies, I think that we were doing relatively well. If we look at the market in terms of volume. As I mentioned earlier, household and personal care products in Q1 was in the midst of a very difficult policy transition period, and it was only in March that the updated version of the fabric softener Humming was launched. And in April, or I guess, May, we will have the launch of Attack ZERO. So our plan is to make up for lost ground. When performance is poor, we know that it causes some concern. But for the first quarter, our view internally was that this was unavoidable.
I think you plan to increase marketing expenses for the full year. But I think the first quarter was negative. I can't help by wonder if the cost reductions in this item are having an impact on sales? Or is this a relevant?
The timing of investments is when sales are rising. So there is no point in putting in expenses when sales are not rising. We will be selective in spending, and we will look at the right timing to spend. Hereafter, we will spend when necessary and not spend when it's not necessary. And over the course of the full year, we will probably end up spending a certain level of expenses.
I see considering that higher raw material prices will kick in from Q2 onwards, I can't help feeling operating income will fall a little short. Well, I guess I'll have to continue to watch your progress.
Well, as I mentioned earlier, the effects of the price increase, et cetera, have not yet been seen in the first quarter. It's going to kick in from Q2. Most of the benefits are going to kick in from Q2. However, looking at the conditions in May with COVID-19 settling down somewhat and the market picking up, sales should also rebound. So we hope that the recovery will take place swiftly.
The next person is Mr. Narikiyo from Nomura Securities.
My name is Narikiyo from Nomura Securities. Thank you for taking my question. I'd like to follow up on Mr. Ohana’s question especially in the domestic Health and Beauty Care businesses. Sales has been declining for over a year. I'd like to know what the gap is between reality and your ideal. What is lacking in your company? And how are you planning to fill the gap? Structurally, it seems that share is down. So please let us know how you are going to change this. Also, for shampoo products, it uses palm oil, but there is news flow of an embargo in Indonesia. So of course, there is concern around demand, but is there also a concern regarding not being able to produce. That's all from me.
I'm afraid our Beauty Care is a source of concern to you. As far as skin care is concerned, things are clear. EV care, body wipe sheets and other seasonal products, which used to be our strengths, have not been selling well for the past 2 or 3 years due to COVID-19. But once they start to get on the recovery path, the growth will be probably significant. As for EV care, products are starting to be shipped out. And so we have high expectations on their future performance. Therefore, as for skin care, we anticipate a substantial recovery in the second quarter. Hair care is the category where major companies are all struggling. A diverse range of players are entering the market with the shampoos and other products competing among one another, having only a small share each almost as in the age of rivalry of local wools. We are now trying to come up with an initiative to become a game changer in this market. We have been working on it all along, but realized that conventional methods would not work. While we have been curbing our expenses, we have been making quite a lot of investments in digital technologies. So by leveraging those digital technologies, we are hoping to implement something new going forward. As for palm oil, manufacturing is being done without any problems in Malaysia, and so please feel assured.
Can we expect this new initiative or a potential game changer to materialize in the near future like by the end of this fiscal year? Or do you expect it to be far into the future. And I will also like to know if you have a bit of a stockpiling of palm oil.
I would assume you're talking about palm oil related to food in Indonesia, but I'll let Watanabe answer that question.
Let me explain about your question on Indonesia. Export of palm oil itself is prohibited, but we have our local company in Indonesia, which does not export palm oil as it is, but processes the oil before shipping it out. Therefore, we do not have any concern on the supply based on that regulation.
At what timing can we expect a new initiative to materialize?
Well, I'm afraid we cannot promise that this will be launched by the end of this year. We are not in a position for me to make any such promises about the timing. But what we can say is that this year, we will not repeat any longer what we had been doing until last year.
The next question is from Ms. Sato from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.
Sato speaking. Thank you very much. I joined the meeting in the middle of the way. So please forgive me if my question was already addressed. If the effect of price raises sinks in from February, how many percentage points of incremental domestic sales do you expect to see? I did see a relevant chart, but I would like to know how much of the effect is attributed to price hikes.
We hope to offset about half of the impact from rising raw materials costs. Well, are you talking about half of JPY 30 billion or JPY 40 billion or half of the total annual impact?
Yes, exactly. Then how are you going to make up for the other half?
Cost reductions and increase in sales volume is what we are relying on.
But how do you plan to increase the sales volume right from the beginning of the fiscal year?
As we have been explaining, the measures planned for this year are going to be launched from now, which we hope will help grow ourselves. Are they planned for Japan and not overseas. There are some in overseas, but they will be launched one after another in the domestic market. The domestic measures account for about 70%. Southeast Asia is showing substantial recoveries. Isn't the benefit from there larger than expected? You're right. Indonesian business is going quite well, and Thailand is seeing a recovery. And we do have high hope obviously. The hair care market in the U.S. is showing per recovery, and yet your company dropped year-on-year. Why? That is because of logistics issues. Our products got stuck, and we're not able to get the products delivered even if we wanted to in the first quarter. So we hope to catch up in the second quarter onward.
There's no problem in the retail sales to consumers than isn't there?
No, there are no issues.
Next question is from Ms. Kuwahara from JPMorgan Securities.
Kuwahara of JPMorgan Securities. Thank you for your presentation. Can you hear me?
Yes.
I would like to ask about the cost of sales ratio for the fiscal 2021. Everyone else has been asking about raw materials. And so my question is from a bit different perspective. The cost of sales ratio in the previous fiscal year was 59.2%. And in this first quarter, it was 63.6%, which represents a 4.4 percentage points deterioration. I understand part of that is attributed to JPY 8 billion rise in raw materials costs, but this would only account for 2.2 or 2.3 percentage points when translated into a ratio against sales. Therefore, I'd like to know what was behind the remaining part of deterioration in cost of sales ratio.
In cost of sales, in our company, freight and logistics expenses are included, which went up in the first quarter. And so that is probably one major factor. Furthermore, the rise in raw materials costs for chemical products was simply passed on to selling prices without putting in any new profit margins, which makes the ratio against sales worse.
I see. So does that mean that when I calculate the ratio, since you did raise prices, I need to use the gross sales amount of JPY 24 billion as a basis?
Yes, that is correct. For example, if the raw materials costs increased by JPY 10 billion, sales will increase by JPY 10 billion as well, which will push up the cost of sales ratio.
I see. Am I correct to say that as raw materials cost change and inventory levels fluctuate, accounting procedure and the valuation of the inventories are not having any impact on cost of sales ratio?
Not significantly.
The next question is from Ms. Kawamoto from UBS Securities.
Yes. Can you hear me?
Yes.
You said you are going to offset half of the impact from raw materials through price hikes. That means half of JPY 30 billion to JPY 40 billion, in other words, JPY 15 billion to JPY 20 billion. But at the beginning of the fiscal year, you said price hikes on diapers and fabric care products will be worth JPY 7 billion to JPY 8 billion. But these are the categories where you enjoyed higher market shares and you have strong presence. Given that, in those strong categories, that was the amount you managed to generate from price hikes, I wonder in what other categories you plan to raise prices to generate how much? In diapers and fabric care products, you command a high share and therefore, may have negotiating advantages, but I would like to know if you can absorb the rest of the impact through additional price hikes. You're also saying that you will further build up cost reduction efforts, but you already executed JPY 2 billion worth of cost reductions in the first quarter against the originally planned JPY 6 billion for the full year. Could you tell us where you will implement further cost reduction measure?
What you are referring to was our TCR initiative, where we are supposed to particularly leverage our ingenuity to reduce costs. So we have to absorb the impact with cost reduction measures, including simpler ones such as reducing traveling expenses. With regard to price hikes, as you said, we are considering the possibilities from the number of products we have, starting with those with high shares. Moreover, it is not just simply raising selling prices. But as would be the case with other companies, among numerous sales promotional measures that we spend money on, we will work with chain stores in hope to curb some of them. We are also considering to significantly cut down on a wide variety of sales promotional items that we have been providing to the storefront.
Could you mention at least one specific example?
If I mention any of them, it would make it difficult to actually execute them. So please forgive us.
Many of your peers have already raised prices overseas. Have you done price hike services? Or do you have any plan to do so?
We have already executed price hikes overseas with JPY 1 billion to JPY 2 billion of impact seen so far. However, that has not been necessarily reflected in our profits directly though we hope the effect will be reflected as it is going forward. But we are seeing the effect of price hikes in countries like U.S.
The JPY 1 billion to JPY 2 billion benefit from overseas price hikes is separate from JPY 7 billion to JPY 8 billion attributed to Mary's and Fabric Care products, isn't it?
That is included in JPY 7 billion to JPY 8 billion. We are planning to execute additional price hikes overseas to total close to JPY 5 billion, including the JPY 1 billion to JPY 2 billion. So JPY 5 billion for the full year. Yes, though the amount has not been officially determined. That is just an optimistic estimate that we think we may be able to achieve.
The next question is from Mr. Hirozumi from Daiwa Securities.
I would like to focus solely on cosmetics. I want to know to what extent you have or have not outperformed the market. On Page 7, there are charts for Japan, Asia, Americas and Europe, with Japan showing a year-on-year growth of 2.7%. In this, is this equivalent to the year-on-year growth of the total market, China has posted a 17% growth, for example, which must be outperforming the market? If so, why? So could you tell us how the market and your company performed and the reasons behind it, especially focusing on Japan and China?
Watanabe speaking. Let me try and answer your question. As you said, regarding 2.7% for Japan, those shipment and sell-out values are different. As we explained at the outset with the chart. The Japanese cosmetics market posted 102% and therefore, we slightly outperformed the market. As for Asia, we achieved a 17% growth in China in the first quarter, though the business is slowing down at present slightly. We achieved a great success during January to March period, including International Women's Day with our strong brands, such as freeplus and Curél performing well.
As for Europe, where we saw a significant growth of 32%, in U.K. and Germany, COVID-19 restrictions were lifted and normalcy was being restored. Furthermore, new products performed quite well with marketing activities adopting digital technologies and producing fairly large tangible results. Another comment I want to make is that on Page 17, in the appendices of the presentation, you can see a summary of our cosmetics business in the first quarter. On the page, the right bottom table shows G11 and R8 brands growth and share of sales. As you can see, G11 now represents more than 70% of the total sales with a 14% year-on-year growth. The total cosmetics sales went up by 7% year-on-year, but the shares of those strong brands in the sales mix are increasing in particular. Therefore, we can say that in terms of the quality and composition of the sales, we are heading for a positive direction, much more than the mere sales figure suggests.
I see. Allow me to ask an additional question. On Page 14, you said that in Q2, things will be a bit tougher for cosmetics, if there are lockdowns in China correct?
Yes. As you know, there is the 618 shopping event in China this time of the year. And we believe that there will be a considerable amount of impact to that sale. We see other companies also making similar comments recently in their announcements. We believe that this will have some impact, and we expect Q2 to be weaker than our initial expectations. However, we are hopeful that there will be revenge consumption from the third quarter onwards. Also, since this is China, we do not think they will just let things sink and various support measures will be introduced. With that, we would like to recover in Q3 and Q4.
Is the decline mainly due to logistics disruptions rather than demand? Sorry, the negative impact on your company's second quarter is mainly due to the disruption in logistics?
Yes, the brand pull is really strong here. So that's the only impact. I think that if things have been normal, we might have had a phenomenal result. So it is really a shame.
Next, SMBC Nikko Securities. Ms. Sato, please.
I am Sato from SMBC Nikko Securities. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you.
Could you tell us about the status of your company's business in the domestic Household and Personal Care market? I understand that various measures will be implemented from Q2, and you said that the effect of the price increase was almost negligible in Q1. Can you give a breakdown of the impact for domestic and overseas business?
Price increases only started in Q2 for the domestic market. So we have not seen any impact yet. Overseas, we are talking about JPY 1 billion to JPY 2 billion impact. You are saying impact in terms of increase in sales. If we take out only the price increase, we can say it had JPY 1 billion to JPY 2 billion positive impact.
For the overseas market, what kind of products are we talking about?
Mainly in Asia and the Americas and Europe, mega brands such as Attack, L'Oréal and Vera and in the Americas and Europe brands, such as Jergens and Jon Frieda.
I see. So diapers or sanitary napkins products in China are not included?
L'Oréal is included.
What about baby diapers?
I don't think there have been any in China yet.
I understand. Thank you very much. You mentioned that the price increase in Japan will be in Q2 and beyond. In that sense, I understand that Q1 was a period of normal operations while starting negotiations for price hikes. Now I noticed that volumes for Hygiene and Living Care in Japan as well as public and home care and cemetery products as well did not grow much. Could it be that initiating negotiations on price hikes made it difficult to increase sales volume? You say that you have high expectations for Q2 and beyond, but how confident are you about that?
In the domestic Hygiene and Living Care business, HybridCare and L'Oréal were not so bad. But Mary’s been dropping Hybrid care is not that bad. It has not declined from last year.
Yes. Mary’s has been struggling a bit recently, but I have been told, it is not because of price increases or anything like that.
Let me add. As for Mary's in Japan, there is a regular in-store sales through our distributors as well as cross-border e-commerce sales to China. For cross-border e-commerce sales, we have been impatiently pressing or controlling shipments somewhat since last year because we saw disruptions in prices in China. And that has led to lower numbers. Also, it is undeniable that there is this major trend of the Japanese market shrinking significantly.
I understand. One more question. You said that the price increase starts in Q2, but is it correct to say that it has been implemented since mid-April?
Yes.
Next person with a question. Mr. Miura from Citigroup Securities, please.
I'd like to know some simple figures. You gave us the assumptions for crude oil and palm kernel oil. Now as an example, how much impact did the $1 increase in the price of crude oil have on an operating income? How much of a hit the $100 rise in palm prices have on your profits? Or what about the exchange rate, what is the impact on operating income of 3 currencies, the dollar, the euro and the yuan? So 5 things. Please tell me the sensitivity to crude oil, palm kernel oil and the exchange rates of the 3 currencies. Just a raw figure would be fine.
Regarding raw material prices, calculating sensitivity is actually a very complicated process. So it is difficult for us to give you a valid figure. For all the currencies a rise or fall by 1% would affect sales by about JPY 5 billion and profit by several hundred million yen.
Just to confirm, is it correct to say that the crude oil price for the fiscal year ending December 2021 was $70 per barrel compared to $110 per barrel for the current term? And is it correct to say that the palm crown oil price for 2021 was around $1,400? Please share the actual numbers.
Crude oil was at about $70, as you said, and palm kernel oil. It was about $1,400.
$1,400. Thank you very much. This is a request. At the beginning, Yamaguchi-san asked for detailed figures on the impact of crude oil and other fats and oils. I concur and I would like to request you, share such information with all of us participants. That is all.
Thank you for your questions. It is past closing time. I will take questions from one more person. Ms. Miyake of Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities, please.
This is Miyake. I'd like to get a first read about the involvement surrounding price increases. Am I correct to understand that the price increase started in April, and this has already been reflected in retail prices? If so, I'd like to confirm that consumer purchase momentum has not actually declined. Also, you are raising prices in an environment where prices are going up for a wide range of goods for the consumer, everything is going up, and I am concerned that a down trading for categories may occur. What are your thoughts on this? And what measures do you have planned if this were to occur?
Yes, price increase have already started to be effective. However, we are also preparing to respond flexibly in the case sales start to decline as a result. So we are making preparations to be able to nimbly respond. We cannot afford to just let sales continue to fall. So we will switch to a different approach in the unlikely event that they do.
What would be that plan B? For example, would you launch a more affordable and economical products that would help to generate profit by selling larger volumes? Are you asking whether we would change the product? I was talking more about changing our response with the same product. Yes, I understand that you are effectively raising prices by launching new or improved higher value-added products. If consumers say no, we just want cheap products that will do the job. I imagine you might take the approach of launching products that are a little cheaper and with which you will aim for volume. Is that what you intend to do?
It depends on the product, but basically, we will launch improved products with enhanced added value and we'll be fully committed to competing with such products. What I was saying was that for simple price hikes, we will monitor for the acceptance by consumers and try to adjust our approach. I think it has only been half a month, less than a month. But at this point, you don't see any such trend. You are not seeing such impact. We are just starting this, and we will be looking at the results coming in, but we are basically committed to doubling down on this approach, particularly for public care.
Thank you very much for your questions. Now it is past the closing time. Thank you for asking many questions today. This concludes the financial results briefing. Thank you very much for so many of you for taking time out of your busy schedules to attend today's meeting.
[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]