ZOZO Inc

TSE:3092

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

[Interpreted] It is time. So we would like to begin FY 2022 third quarter results briefing. To prevent the spread of COVID-19, we are only holding this session online today. And this briefing session will take place at 5:35 and from 5:50, on the separate Zoom channel, we will have a Q&A session for institutional investors.

I would like to introduce at this time, our participants, President and CEO, Kotaro Sawada; and Executive Vice President and CFO, Koji Yanagisawa.

Thank you very much. We have 2 presenters today. The CFO, will take us through the results.

[Koji Yanagisawa, executive]

[Interpreted] This is the Executive Vice President and CFO, Yanagisawa, and I will take you through the FY 2022 third quarter results.

Today's -- apologies about starting a little bit later today. And also, we're having some issues with the video, technical issues. So we cannot show any video, we can only provide audio. But the presentation has been uploaded. So -- and we can show the presentation as we go along. So please follow along and the same documentation is also available on the IR section.

Now moving on to the results for this quarter. So the FY '22 third quarter GMV was up 8.3% year-on-year, ending at JPY 406.4 billion. The GMV, excluding other GMV was up 8.9% year-on-year, ending at JPY 372.0 billion. The operating profit increased 15.1% year-on-year, landing at JPY 44.6 billion. And the operating profit margin was 12%, improving 0.6 points year-on-year.

As was the case in the first half of the year, the GMV and OP trended positively. Especially with respect to the OP, we determined that we will overachieve our initial target as of today. We have revised our forecast upward. Against the revised forecast, the GMV, excluding other GMV has achieved 75%, and the OP 81.2%.

Here on Page 7, other documents. Here are the quarterly trends in the consolidated performance. In the third quarter, the GMV, excluding other GMV increased by 9.1% year-on-year. Last fiscal year, in the fourth quarter, we saw a large brand leave our B2B business. Therefore, when we look at the overall performance, the growth remained below 10%. But if you look at ZOZOTOWN and Yahoo! Shopping, these businesses grew 12.4% year-on-year, maintaining a double-digit growth.

We made great strides in both customer acquisition and sales promotion this quarter as in year-on-year terms, it became the best performing quarter this fiscal year. Although the customer acquisition and sales promotion costs increased in comparison to the previous fiscal year, gross profit increased in line with our -- with the growth in GMV. And some costs, mainly variable cost decreased, thus OP was up 16.3% year-on-year. The OP margin trended high landing at 12.1%.

Next, let me introduce some highlights of our performance. If you look at Page 8, here is the increase/decrease analysis of the OP. The OP, which was JPY 38.77 billion in FY 2021 third quarter increased by approximately JPY 5.86 billion to JPY 44.63 billion. OP increased mainly due to 3 reasons: it increased by JPY 0.31 billion due to the increase in consignment sales resulting in an increase in commissions; JPY 1.07 billion due to the increase in sales from the advertising business; and JPY 2.01 billion due to the increase in shipping income and payment settlement income.

On the other hand, the OP decreased due to 4 reasons: it decreased due to the increase in the number of employees, logistics centers and consignment operations. So this pushed the OP down by JPY 1.51 billion. And it also decreased by JPY 1.2 billion as a result of an increase in variable costs that fluctuate with the GMV and JPY 3.72 billion as a result of an increase in the actual promotion costs such as customer acquisition and point rewards. And JPY 1.1 billion as a result of one-off costs related to the increase in logistic centers rise in telecommunication costs related to the increase in the cloud server usage, et cetera.

Next, on Page 15. Here are the quarterly trends in the GMV. As I have explained in the fourth quarter last fiscal year, a brand that used to make a large contribution to the GMV left our B2B business. Therefore, the contribution of the B2B business to the GMV decreased by 2.6 points to 2.9%. On the other hand, consignment sales which comprises a majority of the GMV has been trending well, and its contribution to the total GMV increased by 2.2 points to 77.5%.

Next, moving on to Page 19. Here is a breakdown in the SG&A as of the end of the third quarter. The cumulative SG&A against the GMV was 22.3% decreasing 0.5 points year-on-year. The key reasons why the SG&A decreased, there's basically 3 were -- sorry 2, were improvements in operational efficiency in the logistic centers, which resulted in a 0.4 point reduction in shipping-related expenses of the payroll. The second reason is the resizing of the cardboard boxes. Usage shipping and cost reductions resulting from the increase in the AOV surpassed cost pressures from fuel surcharge, which resulted in a 0.3 point reduction in shipping costs. However, the SG&A went up due to the increase in customer acquisition costs such as web commercials and advertising resulting in a 0.2 point increase in advertising expenses.

Moving on to Page 23, this is the breakdown of the SG&A by quarter. In the third quarter, the SG&A against the GMV was 21.7%, decreasing by 0.7 points year-on-year. Like the first half of the year, the shipping and packing costs have remained at low levels in comparison to the previous fiscal year, but I already explained the reasons why.

Next, moving on the Page 22, the actual promotion costs. This quarter, we used 5.4% of the GMV on actual promotion costs, which includes advertising and point rewards. Since our business has been performing well, we invested in more promotions than we initially had planned. Moreover, in the fourth quarter, we will continue to invest in promotions to maintain sustainable growth in the coming fiscal year. Thus we had and as we plan to use 3.5% of the GMV for promotions this fiscal year. But this percentage may end up being higher for this fiscal year.

Next, moving on to Page 20. Here are the trends in the OP and OPM. In the third quarter, promotion costs increased in comparison to the same quarter previous year, promotions using points increase in comparison to the same quarter of previous year. However, the gross profits increased in line with the growth in GMV and some costs, mainly variable costs decreased. Thus, the OPM improved by 0.8 points to 12.1%.

Next, on Page 24. From here, I would like to introduce the KPIs for ZOZOTOWN. Figures I will be referencing going forward does not include Yahoo! Shopping and the B2B business. It's only for ZOZOTOWN, these figures are only for ZOZOTOWN. The annual buyers increased by 350,000 to 11.21 million, and active members increased by 390,000 as at the last quarter to 1.93 million and the number of guest buyers decreased by 40,000 to 1.27 million. The active members increased because the new customers we acquired last year became regular customers. And we also strengthened our customer acquisition efforts by airing TV commercials and web advertising during ZOZOWEEK and the summer sales period.

Next, on Page 25. Here are the number of shops. As of the end of the third quarter, the number of shops was 1,554, a net increase of 22 shops since the end of the previous quarter. 35 shops joined this quarter, including American Workwear brand, UNIVERSAL OVERALL and the French luxury bag brand, Longchamp and Australian Skincare brand, Aesop. These shops have joined our platform.

Next, moving on to Page 30. You'll find the average retail price. On the next page, you will find the average order value, but starting with the average retail price, which was JPY 4,438, up 6.5% year-on-year. The therapy improved due to the increase in price of certain products and the decrease in the discount rate of products sold during the sales period. So these 2 are the key reasons why the ARP improved.

Next, on Page 31, average order value was JPY 8,961, up 4.3% year-on-year. Although the number of items purchased per order decreased, the ARP increase surpassed this impact, thus ARP also increased year-on-year.

Lastly on Page 33, I would like to talk about the consolidated fiscal year forecast and dividends. As I mentioned before, we are making great progress towards the initial fiscal year forecast announced on April 27, 2022. And since it seems likely that we will be overachieving our initial targets, we have made upward revisions to the forecast as of today.

And as I touched upon on the slide about the promotional cost, we are planning to make upfront investments to sustainable growth in this fiscal year, and we are also considering providing our employees with a year-end bonus. As a result, our business performance forecast post revisions is as follows: the GMV and GMV, excluding other GMV and net sales will remain the same.

On the other hand, the OP forecast is 6.8% higher than our original plan and will be JPY 55 billion, a growth rate of 0.8% year-on-year. The operating profit margin will be 11.1%. And the ordinary profit target is 7.2% higher than our original plan and will be JPY 55.2 billion, growing at a rate of 11.2% year-on-year. And the profit attributable to owners of parent will be JPY 38.4 billion, 7% higher than the original plan. And the growth rate for this is 11.3%. And the net profit per share will be JPY 128.07. And as I mentioned, we will maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50%, but the estimated dividend per share will be revised to JPY 65.

This concludes my explanation of our performance. Now our CEO, Sawada, will take it from here.

[Kotaro Sawada, executive]

[Interpreted] So first, I would like to talk about ZOZO first, physical store, Niaulab, that we announced last fall. We would like to talk about what the objective is and what it is as well.

Moving on to the next page. First of all, what we will be doing is that. We have already explained this, publicized this information, but the stylist and the AI will help you find a style that best fits you, your style. And we actually wanted to show you a video that explains what the service is going to be like, it's like, but unfortunately, with the technical issues, we cannot show this video to you at this time, but we will upload it to YouTube or some other platform so that you can take a look at it later.

But just to give you a brief explanation, you need to make a reservation, but when you make a reservation, you actually will take a survey and based on the survey and your answers, when you come to the store, the stylist and our staff will communicate with the users, discuss with the users, asking them about their preference and help customers discover their own style. And we have hundreds of fashion items in the store. So we explain the products, and then we find -- our customers find their style.

And in terms of AI, we have the smart mirrors and recommendations that the AI will suggest. And we can -- based on that, we customize that look. And lastly, actually, we end up proposing 3 styles and the users would choose the one that they like best. And at this time, we don't sell these products. We just tell the customers, you know, we have the same products. And so the time if you would like to make a purchase, you can purchase it there, but we don't sell the products in Niaulab. Sometimes it does take 2 hours for the consultation, but we do spend ample time to help people find their style. And this is basically a service that's provided free of charge.

And the reasons why what's our objective for doing this, we actually received the question from many people. First of all, ZOZO has announced the 3 pillars of the strategy. Since last fiscal year, we are following along this path. The first one is increased traffic from other than buy; and the second one is to step into production support; and Made by ZOZO, we announced last year, so this is making -- we're making great progress in this area as well. And we're also trying to license our technology as well. And last summer, we started a service call ZOZOFIT in the U.S., so we are welcoming more users to service as well. And Niaulab is actually going to fit under number one, the strategy number one. So to increase traffic from buy.

So what this actually means is that we want to generate traffic other than just to try to sell products. We think it's meaningful to generate traffic for other objectives. More specifically purchasing, making purchases and you will find that in the lower funnel, but we want to start approaching customers in the upper forma as well. So when the season changes, we want to be a touch point for many of our customers before they make a purchase decision. So this is one of the reasons why we want to embark on this strategy.

And other than what does other than buy mean, and one definition is to help people find their style. So it's not to just sell products by providing this service. Ultimately, we believe that this will actually energize demand for apparel and encourage people to make purchases on ZOZOTOWN. And we talked about ZOZOFIT and production support, but a number -- the first strategy. It's a very -- as a management strategy, we have more fashion and fashion tech, and we want to help people explore your style. We are providing fashion tech in more fashion because we want to help people explore their style and by helping people discover their style, we talked about the GMV might be positively impacted.

Through production support, we can actually help brands manufacture items that look better on people. And with technology, we can expand into the global market. But if we can actually define the logic behind why things look great on people, then we can apply that to technology as well. So we want to -- by being able to find the styles that look good on people. This will impact all areas of our strategy.

Moving on the future prospects, how Niaulab will evolve in the future. First of all, we call it a lab. So from that name as you can gather, Niau or whatever style that looks good on you, it's still under research and development. So we want to continue to study what looks great on people. And by acquiring experience, we want to -- and learnings, we want to apply that to ZOZOTOWN and WEAR. So that's the first step. But it doesn't stop there. Going forward, we can -- we believe that we can apply our findings. If we can launch Niaulab as a service, and if we believe that it's very effective for our users, we can actually apply it to other stores as well.

So right now, we have sort of receiving reservations for Niau level and already 27,000 people have made reservations. So we believe that there's a lot of potential demand here. A lot of consumers are interested. Therefore, we are receiving great feedback from the market. But if we can explore monetizing this, providing this as a paid service, and we need to explore what the best model will be, but we can actually help define what a new source could be like.

And as I mentioned before, we will be -- we're probably going -- the only company that study styles that look great on people and the results of our research can be applied. This solution could be applied worldwide. So as you can see, we're still -- Niaulab, it's not certain what it will look like in the end. We're still exploring different avenues, but we know that there's still ample room for growth.

So that's it from myself. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

[Interpreted] That concludes ZOZO's FY '22 Third Quarter Results briefing. Thank you for joining us today.

[Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]