Ajinomoto Co Inc

TSE:2802

Earnings Call Analysis

Company Achieves Record Highs Amid Challenges

In Q3, the company saw record high sales and business profits bolstered by expansions in seasoning, foods, and frozen foods, set against declines in healthcare and other segments. Seasoning and frozen food segments are progressing in line with revised profit forecasts, whereas healthcare continues to face profit decreases. Costs from the Forge Biologics acquisition are set to be absorbed for future steady profit growth. Sales reached JPY 1.676 billion, a 104% increase year-over-year, with business profit hitting JPY 124.4 billion, growing 104.4% from the previous year excluding foreign exchange impacts. The company's strategy involves investing in intangible assets to support future growth according to their 2030 roadmap, with a company-wide business profit target set at JPY 150 billion.

Robust Business Performance and Optimism for Recovery in Key Sectors

The earnings call began with a sense of optimism despite no major announcements, as the company saw Q3 sales and profits reaching historical highs. Specifically, the seasoning, foods, and frozen foods segments expanded sales and profits robustly in the first half, and although other sectors like health care showed declines, the decrease in profits was starting to contract. The expectation is that the negative trend in electronics materials is set to bottom out in the fourth quarter.

Strong 9-Month Sales Achievements and Profit Growth Amid Foreign Exchange Impact

For the 9-month period leading up to the call, sales reached JPY 1.676 billion, marking a 104% year-over-year increase, with the figure standing at 100.6% when foreign exchange impacts were excluded. The company weathered declines in healthcare through increased sales in seasonings and frozen foods, both domestically and overseas. The overall business profit was reported at JPY 124.4 billion, demonstrating a 104.4% year-over-year growth, with strict cost control and strategic sales initiatives as pivotal contributors. The company encountered headwinds in raw materials and fuel costs, but these challenges were mitigated by earnings from unit price growth in strong sectors.

Investments in Sustainable Growth and Strategy Achievements

The company's ongoing investments align with its 2030 roadmap strategy, focusing on intangible assets critical for sustained growth. They have reported that their seasonings and frozen food segments are close to achieving, or have already met, their full-year profit forecasts, indicating a robust performance. An intention to strengthen the operations in health care and other segments is clear, with the goal to achieve a comprehensive business profit of JPY 150 billion.

Innovative Approaches to Consumer Engagement and Product Development

In the Japanese market, the company has shifted their product strategy to a personalized, interactive communication model, seeing success in attracting new customer bases, especially among younger consumers. By leveraging social media and targeted product launches, such as a complete nutritious meal for women sold exclusively through their direct-to-consumer website, the company has been able to respond to specific market demands effectively. This approach aims to fuel growth in the Japanese food business by creating products tailored to contemporary consumer needs.

Expanding Biopharma Services and Commitment to Top Market Positioning

While facing client inventory adjustments in the pharmaceutical sector that impacted growth, there is optimism about the fourth quarter with anticipated inventory normalization. The company's proprietary technologies in biopharmaceuticals, such as AJICAP, are advancing with expectations of new licensing agreements that could boost the business further. With strategic plans, the company aims to establish itself as a top contender in gene therapy CDMO, evident from its significant investment in Forge and a clear focus on integrated growth strategies.

Addressing Key Business Difficulties and Investment Costs

There were several challenges noted, including insufficient orders affecting Althea and a lack of visibility into client inventories in health care, which they are actively working to improve. In terms of acquisition costs, the company reported a $1.2 billion expenditure for Forge, which is recognized in profit and loss and expected to impact the balance sheet with several billion yen in intangible asset burdens, including depreciation costs. Discussions surrounding improvement measures highlighted an emphasis on increasing sales and customer bases as vital for recovery.

Forward-Looking Strategies and Profit Drivers for the Next Fiscal Year

Looking toward fiscal year 2024, the company plans to continue its efforts to streamline operations and reduce costs while exploring new market opportunities. Executive comments suggest a belief in several growth drivers, including electronic materials, ABS, and biopharma services, with a potential rebound in overseas food sales and a more efficient Japanese market. The overarching strategy appears to be a mix of cost control, investment in innovation, and capturing new market segments to ensure steady profit growth even with the anticipated challenges.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Taro Fujie, executive]

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining despite your busy schedules. This is Fujie speaking. So it's the first time I'm joining this conference call. There's no material announcement we're going to be making but the start of a new year. I haven't been able to extend my greetings for the new year to many of you. So I was hoping that I could get your direct feedback and that's why I'm here. So regarding today's highlights, which is on the 1 page. So first, on a commonative basis, Q3 sales and business profits reached record highs. For seasoning of foods and frozen foods, we strongly expanded sales and profits in the first half. Although revenue and profit decreased in health care and others, the degree of profit decline is contracting.

In seasonings and foods and frozen foods, we are making steady progress with respect to the revised forecast for business profit. For health care and others, profit continues to decrease in every segment. And for Electronic Materials, we believe that the bottoming out is going to begin in the fourth quarter. And also in the third quarter, we recorded a portion of expenses related to the acquisition of Forge Biologics. So from Q4, Evenity will be consolidated to our P&L. So part of it have been recognized. And going forward, Avendity will be consolidated. So following the strong performance of oligonucleotides. The next growth driver is expected to be biopharma services.

And regarding the full year forecast for fiscal '23, it remains unchanged. Like I mentioned earlier while the impacts of forge Biologics and its acquisition is being scrutinized, we will continue efforts to absorb the effects as much as possible. So from fiscal '24, we will continue aiming for steady profit growth to achieve our 2030 road map. So now without further ado, I'd like to hand over to Mr. Mizutani, to explain the overview of our results.

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

So moving on to Page 3, at the bottom right. So I'd like to explain about our financial results for Q3 of fiscal year ending March 2024. Q3 sales and business income reached record highs for both the 9-month period as well as the quarter. Sales were JPY 1.676 billion, 104% of the previous year's level were 100.6%, excluding FX impact, the sales increase in seasonings and foods and frozen foods, where we implemented price increases and other initiatives offset the decline in sales of health care and others. Business profit was JPY 124.4 billion, a 104.4% of the previous year, were 100.3%, excluding FX impact. Increased sales and improved GP ratio enables the company to increase profit despite increased investment in SG&A.

Please turn to the next page. Here is an analysis of the difference in business profit between fiscal '23 and fiscal '22 Q3 on a 9-month basis. Changing GP due to change in sales was JPY 14.5 billion higher compared to the same period last year and price increases in seasonings and foods and sales and foods, both overseas and in Japan contributed to the increase.

The sales breakdown of seasonings and quick nourishment for cumulative Q3 was as follows: Domestic volume 99%, unit price 105%, overseas volume, 102%, unit price 107%. While for the third quarter from October through December, domestic volume was 100% unit price 104%. And overseas, volume, 102% unit price, 104%. The unit price effect has run its course but the volume is on a recovery trend. Although it was warm in Japan, the volume was on the recovery trend.

Overseas on the other hand, while volume in Vietnam declined due to the pushout of Tet or Vietnamese New Year, overall sales of overseas seasonings and quick nourishment were 102% of the previous year's level. And excluding Tet impact, Vietnam continues to grow strong and overseas sales volume growth is expected to further expand. Change in GP due to change in GP margin was plus JPY 6.5 billion due to the continued contribution of the Food business and a smaller decrease in the GP ratio of the health care and other businesses.

The significant increase in profit from unit price growth in the seasonings and foods and frozen food segment offset the negative impact of approximately JPY 6 billion in gross raw materials and fuel costs and made up for the negative impact of the Healthcare and Other segments. G&A expenses are in line with the 2030 road map strategy, and we're expanding investments in intangible assets necessary for future sustainable growth.

Please turn to the next slide. This is Page 5. Here is the Y-o-Y analysis of a difference in business profit by segment for the first 9 months of fiscal '23 compared to the same period of the previous year. The bottom of the slide shows the difference between the full year forecast and the previous year's results as a reference. As you can see, seasonings and foods and frozen foods achieved strong profit growth with seasonings and foods almost achieving the full year profit increase forecast and frozen foods achieving the forecast. So that Healthcare and others can achieve the full year forecast. We will work on improving profitability further. We will strengthen our business operations to achieve a total company-wide business profit of JPY 150 billion.

Please turn to the next slide. ASV indicators for each segment are shown here. So first, if EBITDA margin for seasonings and foods and business profit for frozen foods, secondly, have already achieved the fiscal year 2025 plan in the first 3 quarters. Although business profit of health care and other businesses is growing negatively, we will take steps to return to growth in the future. Please turn to the next page. This section introduces our approach to the seasonings and foods business in Japan. A new product that has shifted from a traditional mass target, mass communication to personalized interactive communication strategy that is designed to connect with the individual consumer has been generating results.

The new product could do for Kiwami premium Mala Mapo Tofu launched in August last year has succeeded in attracting a new customer base, including mill customers due to events operating an actual restaurant in Shinjuku and showing the sharing of positive reaction on social networking sites. We're developing the market with Edging [indiscernible] products which we were not able to develop before. In the future, we will expand our business not only to mass retailers but also to other channels that cater to specific targets.

Next page please. In the previous slide, I showed you that Cooked Tofu Kiwami premium Mala Mapo Tofu initiative had won the swing the bat award from the marketing design center. The new initiative of the marketing design center launched last April is the swing of the bat event. Despite the outcome, those that swung the bat at the batter's box should be commended for their challenging spirit, and we should motivate them to transform our organizational culture.

Next page. This stage explains about the new launch that we did in January this year, [indiscernible] a complete nutritious meal for women sold only at our D2C website. The meal was sufficiently fulfilling short pasta and soup would satisfy your customer by providing well-balanced nutrition required for women. As of 33 nutrients, it contains more than 1/3 recommended to take a day, including protein, dietary fiber, 13 vitamins and 12 minerals. It fulfills the required amount of iron, et cetera, for women that the deficiency may be of concern. While calories carbohydrates and fats that excessive intake may be worried are low in content, less than 1/3 daily requirement. We would like to launch new products hereafter through personalized approach and hit the target to regain growth for our Japanese food business.

Next page, please. As was mentioned earlier about the frozen food business, frozen food business achieved more than JPY 10 billion business profit targeted in our only within the 9-month period of this fiscal year, ROIC 5%. And in order to achieve more than that, we need to improve the denominator, make asset lighter and also increase our numerator, the business growth.

In the area of asset light, we would sell the Italian food business in North America, low profitable Italian units will be carved out and the plant would be converted to the Asian food plant, our coal category, we would be further permitting asset reduction strategy. Those information would be disclosed timely and shared with you at an appropriate timing. While written on the right-hand side of this material in Japan, we would be starting [indiscernible] frozen launch box Bento delivery service. Many of you have tried them at the reception after the meeting held on fourth December. The frozen Bento, one meal complete with cooked rice mixed with vegetables and meat topped with side dishes, it's tasty, easy to enjoy your meal and nutritionally well balanced.

Also, with our proprietary technology, we have kept the tastiness of cooked rice that were set to be difficult to achieve with frozen rice and dish packed in one. We would contribute to improvement of consumers' well-being through realizing, providing food and health solution service.

Next page, please. And here is the start of the Healthcare and Other segment. First, functional material and the amino acids for Pharmaceutical Foods. Functional foods with the market adjustment of the semiconductors continuously recorded those decrease in sales and profit, but we expect the start of the recovery from the fourth quarter. For PCs the adjustments they seem to be over with the replacement demand coming to light. The current demand for servers and networks is still weak, but We see partial recovery. The demand for generative AI, though, still small percentages in the market is robust. We would like to make sure the timing of the market recovery and its strength toward our performance forecast for fiscal '24.

Next is amino acids for Pharmaceuticals and Foods. We had impact from our clients, the inventory adjustment of the biopharmaceutical companies. However, we anticipate the end of inventory adjustment gradually seen during the fourth quarter. From now on, we would like to know more about the inventory status of our customers and refine our capability to make forecast more accurately.

Next page, please. This page is about biopharma services. or CDMO would differ by modality. So I would like to explain by modality for a small molecule, though impacted by production line conversion, the situation improved to the previous year level in the third quarter, and we anticipate further growth in the fourth quarter. for medium molecule, the nucleic acid-based drugs as our growth driver is expanding both sales and profit. achieving increase of business profit of more than JPY 1 billion in the 3 months period of third quarter from October to December.

Also, the proprietary technology of ADC or AJICAP, we had seen the progress. So we are not able to disclose details due to the contract with our counterparty. We will have a new licensing agreement with a global leading pharmaceutical company with AJICAP. Also, AJICAP developed a new usage other than for ADC. In December, [indiscernible] press release the initiatives with us. That should be another work to accelerate while large molcule.

Althea, our North American company doing fill and finish, recorded both sales and profit decreases due to decline in order from its customers. we would like to recover the growth trajectory of Althea together with Forge.

Forge, we've started PMI with them, the gene therapy CDMO. In our appendix, I have included a slide about this competitive advantage that would be the answer to the question received at the December 4 meeting with these advantages we would like to nurture this company as a top runner in the gene therapy area. The company would be consolidated from the fourth quarter fiscal 2023. We're now carefully examining of the impact. Thank you very much. That's all from me.

[Operator]

We would like to move on to Q&A. The first question is from Mizuho Securities, Mr. Saji.

[Hiroshi Saji, analyst]

Thank you. For biopharma services, I have a question first. I'm looking at the business overview and breakdown for biopharma services ingredients, it went down by JPY 1.4 billion and JPY 1.6 billion decline in profits. Your plan was increase in revenue of JPY 12.1 billion in the second half and JPY 6.2 billion in profits increase. So I think there's a gap here. You talked about the details by modality, but why is this gap, can you go through the details a little bit more? That's my first question.

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Mr. Saji, thank you very much for your question. in North America, especially for this market, it was explained in the presentation earlier, [indiscernible] biopharmaceutical companies due to higher interest rates, orders have declined from customers. That is the biggest reason why. So when orders go down, production volume also goes down. So fixed cost burden is greater. So revenue declines and the impact becomes greater basically. So that is the biggest factor. But from Q4, like I explained earlier, for a small molecule, we are starting to see -- we are expecting to see a pickup.

[Hiroshi Saji, analyst]

Related to that is my second question. So your view on Q4 for Forge, it's going to be consolidated to your P&L from Q4. Previously, you were saying around JPY 1.5 billion more or less is going to be negative or about JPY 5 billion. I presume it's going to be the negative impact. But for Q4, is it going to be about 1/4 of this amount that's going to hit your P&L. And also ADC, you were able to conclude a contract with a large player. So timing-wise, is it going to impact your Q4 results? Or is it going to be from April next fiscal year? And regarding the improvement amount or improvement measures, what are the improvement measures for small molecule? You were giving us some food for thought for the other modalities, apart from small molecule, but can you give us more flavor on that?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Regarding forge, we've recently just acquired it. So for purchase price allocation, we are still working on it. So we are not able to share the specific numbers yet at this point in time. For fiscal '24 [indiscernible] investments are going to be double-digit [or grant] so single-digit billions of yen. So for Q4, we are expecting a certain degree of impact. So that's for Forge first of all.

Also, for the other -- [indiscernible] small molecule regarding AJICAP. Because of customer relationships, the timing and the size of the transaction is something I'm not able to speak to you at this moment.

[Hiroshi Saji, analyst]

But is this about next fiscal year? Or is it going to materialize from this fiscal year?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Actually, even for that we are continuing to communicate with our clients. Therefore, I cannot speak to the timing either. That is something we would like to consider going forward.

[Hiroshi Saji, analyst]

And what about the improvement measures?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Yes, for the improvement measures. Page wise, that would be on Page 12. As mentioned at the bottom half for Althea, under this business environment, it's a matter of how we expand our customers more than before. So with the acquisition of Forge, we would like to work in an integrated manner with the marketing people at Forge so that we could cross reference our customers to one another. So that we can deepen and expand our sales. We believe that is our best way. That's our best improvement measure.

[Hiroshi Saji, analyst]

So nothing around cost, that's going to change. So you're basically going to strive to increase sales.

[Operator]

Next question. Fujiwara from Nomura, please.

[Satoshi Fujiwara, analyst]

This is Fujiwara from Nomura. Can I ask questions?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Yes, yes.

[Satoshi Fujiwara, analyst]

Thank you. Pharma Service and Ingredients Forge acquisition, yes, I think it just popped up after the first half forecast and announcement. I have a question about Forge. So compared to 3 months ago, I think the forecast seems to be difficult biopharma service and ingredients, negative impact. If you exclude them, these negative impact seems to be very difficult. So what is the source of the difference. I don't know what happened in a few couple of months here. So what -- have you understood the situation? That's my first question.

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Thank you very much, Fujiwara for your question. Yes, your question, yes, I think earlier, I have mentioned some reasons, and it has some reference to it, meaning that the customer in the third quarter, because of the high interest rate and prolonged high interest rate impact, we have less orders. That's the first and foremost, the reason. And to that effect, countermeasures would be, as was mentioned to earlier with the existing customers and new customers. So we need to expand our customer base. That's all.

[Satoshi Fujiwara, analyst]

And interest rate impact you mentioned in this industry, I think you are aware of that. did this just pop out these days. So that is the reason why you have different forecast 3 months ago and to date.

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Yes, the interest rate impact, well, of course, it just prolonged but this impact had showed up gradually towards the third quarter.

[Satoshi Fujiwara, analyst]

I see.

[Taro Fujie, executive]

Thank you very much. This is Fujie speaking. Hello. First, by region, the profit decline in U.S. is quite large. Maybe that's your concern. I think there are four factors to it: one -- I mean assets for pharmaceuticals and foods in both North and South America, it is the declined profit. As was mentioned, customer inventory, we were not able to grasp the situation of their inventories. And for that, with our customers, I think we had discussions and had a more deepened communications so that now we are able to control them by looking at their inventories. And for large customers, we have seen new orders coming in. So we think we are at the bottom of that at this point of time.

And the second factor is that Althea had to face difficulty and Mr. Mizutani had mentioned to this from the start-up companies, we did not get enough orders, and we're trying to solve that issue with [metas].

And third factor is in the South America that the materials had for the inventory adjustment and its utilization of the plants were reduced. So that fixed cost portion was, I think, including the production adjustment, I think we were able to counteract so in fiscal 2024 and starting from the fourth quarter, we are able to -- I think, meet this situation.

And fourth factor is the AjiPro-L, that was a driver last year for us. Of course, AjiPro-L is on an expansion trend. But here, the customer's inventory is still kept. That means, as was mentioned, I think that we lacked -- or we did not have sufficient capability to see the inventories of our customers. We reflect on that part, how do we do that? How do we have this visibility? I think currently, we are working on how to improve the situation so that we will have visibility on our customers. So I think at a certain degree and level, we are able to now cope with the situation. That was my supplementary comment.

[Satoshi Fujiwara, analyst]

And second, forge as the acquisition cost, $1.2 billion, you mentioned. And how much have you reported that and put into your PL in the third quarter and the remaining would be shown in fourth quarter, I guess. And BPA is still ongoing. So it has not been yet decided, I believe, but intangible assets in 2024, including the depreciation cost there should be some burden of advanced investments of several billion yen. So including amortization of depreciation cost. So you're going to have losses of about JPY 5 billion or so around, am I correct? Can you comment on this? .

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Thank you for the question. Yes about acquisition-related costs. Yes, to all the profit, yes, that is going to be accounted on PL. But by segment towards the fourth quarter, this is going to be replaced and that is going to be attached to that segment. And another thing is PPA. This type of acquisition of a certain cost not goodwill, but depreciation and amortization, we will see some assets. So in December, we had explained the amount -- the image of the amount is going to occur. Yes, indeed.

[Satoshi Fujiwara, analyst]

Let me confirm. So cost-related acquisition in the third quarter in the biopharma service, you have included already?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Half. Yes, the biopharma service and the remaining is under the total company.

[Satoshi Fujiwara, analyst]

So December, the remaining thing is going to be booked in the biopharma service. So the fourth quarter, you will not see any, right? Not under the whole company deal. But it could be -- it will be shown in the biopharma service segment, thank you.

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Yes.

[Satoshi Fujiwara, analyst]

And you mentioned about a few billions of yen or JPY 5 billion EBITDA, I guess, including that is the image that you have mentioned?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Yes. Yes.

[Satoshi Fujiwara, analyst]

So including?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Yes, yes.

[Operator]

Next question is from Goldman Sachs, Miyazaki.

[Takashi Miyazaki, analyst]

This is Miyazaki from Goldman Sachs. Two questions. The first one is regarding once again, related to forge. So originally, you were talking about around JPY 5 billion negative impact the JPY 1.2 billion minus factor for Q3, is it inclusive in the JPY 5 billion? Are you still expecting around JPY 5 billion of a negative impact on top of the JPY 1.2 billion? The timing, if it's split into 2x or more, I think it will be diluted, but the initial negative impact, is it going to be more or less around JPY 5 billion or even greater than that. compare can you confirm that?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Well, thank you very much. Well, last year in December, when we spoke about the double-digit [indiscernible] end middle range, that was about fiscal '24 which is the JPY 5 billion around. So this is what was materialized that initially at one time in fiscal '23. So the two are different -- two separate things. Okay. So the expenses that were recognized this time around as well as in fiscal '24 first year were separated.

[Takashi Miyazaki, analyst]

Okay. Second question is the direction for next fiscal year, although it might be too early to say, how should we account for next fiscal year? So for food-related businesses, when you include the price increase impact in fiscal '23, the profit increase impact has run of course. And I would say that the impact is probably going to be more moderate when thinking about profit increases in fiscal '24. So when you're formulating your company-wide plan, I would -- health care unless I do believe that it needs to improve at a quick timing. So what are the contributors that will contribute to profit increases next fiscal year? Or do you think that next fiscal year is going to be a tough year? Is that what we should be ready for?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

So regarding your second question, thank you very much for that. So first of all, for food, especially for overseas for this fiscal year as was the case in Q3 and key markets. We were seeing sales volume and unit price growth that was double digit. And for fiscal '24, compared to where we were this year, it's likely to change somewhat. But even so, we would like to continue to focus on cost reductions and also if when necessary. Like I explained before, leverage our data to develop new markets. And also apart from cost reductions, cutting the number of SKUs, making our operations more efficient so that we could have a leaner and stronger organization not only in overseas, but also in Japan, so that we could achieve growth.

[Taro Fujie, executive]

This is Fujie. I like to add a few comments. Thank you, Mr. Miyazaki. So for fiscal '24, the advanced investments for Forge even if you account for it from fiscal '24 as well so that we can achieve the 2030 road map, we will like to strive to increase our profits steadily. So what will be the driver, growth drivers, there are several of them. One of them will be electronic materials, ABS as well as biopharma services are likely to bottom out. So these businesses should turn into a driver. And also, like Mr. Mizutani said earlier, for overseas food compared to fiscal '23, the growth rates may decelerate. However, sales volume as well as unit price still has space for growth. That's where we are. Also, for Japan, we can see a reversal on trend.

So sales volume has been growing and also the society in Japan. When it comes to price increases and wage increases and virtuous cycle for the economy, I think society is starting to reach the consensus that that's happening. So it's about [indiscernible]. It's about standing in the batting box and taking upon various challenges which I believe will boost our business going forward. So that was a comment I just wanted to put in.

[Operator]

Next question, Miyake san from Morgan Stanley.

[Haruka Miyake, analyst]

I have questions about ABF. In the fourth quarter onward, you said that is on a trend of recovery originally probably in your budget. From the fourth quarter, you have seen a scenario that is got to be snapping back. But for the gross -- but comparing with the -- when you look at the market environment, it seems to be weak to see a recovery and the CAGR volume, 18% increase. You have not changed the forecast. But what is the current situation, the image for the growth of this business?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Functional Materials, next terms the forecast is -- please wait until May when we make the official announcement but was mentioned earlier, starting from this fourth quarter, we forecast that it will turn to the sales increase. for mid- and long-term perspective, including the demand for AI, we would pursue after high sales and higher growth in profit. Thank you.

[Haruka Miyake, analyst]

Another thing is volume growth potential you say and that is going to be the driver for high value-added products. So you will be able to increase the profit without any price hike. But when you look at the market environment in part of the prices may see price reduction. So what is the unit price outlook? Or in order to -- or do you still maintain the scenario to have a higher profit despite the volume?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Yes, for ABF, as has been mentioned, the usage is going to be more complicated. And together with that, we are making investments in our technology. And along with that, we are getting higher unit price. So in that sense, unit price maintenance, keeping it is what we want to stick to. Thank you.

[Haruka Miyake, analyst]

So we don't have to see any risks. Okay.

[Taro Fujie, executive]

Can I supplement? This is Fujie speaking. Yes, the semiconductor market outlook I think we collect from various sources, including [indiscernible] san and other analysts, you have the same sources, I believe, but the semiconductor industry for fiscal '24, many people say that the market is on a recovery trend, and we also see that. So our customers and their trends, when you look at them in the fourth quarter of FY '23, people say that is the bottom. And for FY '24, that bottoming out and increase in recovery trend could be seen.

When you look at FY '22, January, December, it's dropped a bit, but in February, it dropped very much, February, March also because of the inventory adjustment, the shipment was not smooth. So based on that, bottoming up and in addition, the semiconductor market, overall market growth can be expected. And high unit price product will be sold more. So volume and unit price from both aspects, we see electronics materials so that's the recovery. Of course, we want it to be recovered as soon as possible. But we want to carefully watch the situation.

[Operator]

The next question is from SMBC Nikko Securities, Takagi san.

[Naomi Takagi, analyst]

This is Takagi. Can you hear my voice?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Yes, it's clear.

[Naomi Takagi, analyst]

I have a question for President Fujie. So for biopharma services and ingredients, you were talking about a bottoming out as well as the recovery -- regarding this direction, I think people agreed. But how much of a recovery should we expect next fiscal year? So this fiscal year, business profits are likely to go below your expectations. So next fiscal year wise, are you going to strive to reach a profit level that's same as the previous fiscal year? Can you give us some food for thought in how much of recovery you're expecting? And structurally speaking, it seems that external environment has had an impact, but I'm also concerned that your profitability has went down. And for oligonucleotides, it's brisk this year, but is it going to be okay next fiscal year? So please share your thoughts on that.

[Taro Fujie, executive]

Thank you very much, Takagi san. So regarding lower profitability concerns. We look at it from various angles. But nothing has happened that is giving us a sense of crisis. That's my understanding. Of course, we're always trying to stay on our toes because you never know what's going to happen. And we need to continue to focus to enhance profitability. But we position this business as a growth driver. So we would like to ensure that profitability improves hereafter. And we are confident about doing so. In terms of the magnitude of the recovery. Well, we do know that inventory levels have started to change in trend. So and -- starting from Q4 of '23 or from fiscal '24, we do expect a recovery to take place. But we need to be mindful of the competitive landscape and what our competitors are going to do. In those areas where they sell cheap, we are not going to go into those areas. So we would like to ensure, like always, that we establish our position in areas where we could generate good profitability.

And also for oligonucleicacid therapeutics, together with our customers, we are looking about the future outlook. Regarding next growth drivers. We haven't changed its positioning as the next growth driver. And regarding specific orders, we have been receiving steady orders. So although we are causing concerns around the business, please feel assured.

And also for Frozen Foods, we caused a lot of concern in the past, and we did a lot of structural reform and now it's a business that has exceeded JPY 10 billion. So for biopharma services to in each of the businesses we're in, we would like to reinforce our structures drastically and make the business even more visible. We still need to do a lot in this area, but I would like -- I do believe personally that it is a well-managed business.

[Naomi Takagi, analyst]

So regarding challenges against your plan, I think there's two areas that are underperforming. One is for pharmaceuticals and inventory. As you said, regarding the inventories, you have started to gain visibility into resolving the issue. The other one, I believe, is Althea, you were speaking about that before, but I was -- my understanding was that the impact on your performance is not -- was not going to be that significant. However, is it going to be a prolonged issue in terms of Althea?

[Taro Fujie, executive]

So Q1, the first question is exactly as you rightly pointed out. For the second point, in terms of Althea, we don't think it's going to be critical. But we need to take the structural reforms one by one so that we could build on the result and speed is of the essence as well. So the start-ups are having financing problems and that has led to weaker orders. But as Mr. Mizutani explained earlier, Forge when it comes to start-ups, has extremely strong relationships with them. And the business head, Mr. Otake used to be in Japan, but now he's been transferred to the U.S., and he's working on fundamental measures to make the structure stronger. So you may be concerned about Althea, but we believe the trends will bottom out so that we could see a positive development going forward. So please feel assured.

[Naomi Takagi, analyst]

I have one more question about the small molecule thing. So is top line going to recover? Because it still seems like it's weak regarding the factory. So that's Belgium, right?

[Taro Fujie, executive]

Actually, we've been receiving steady orders so we do have a grasp on the numbers. So I don't think you need to be that concerned about fiscal '24.

[Operator]

Next question. Sumoge from Okasan Securities.

[Manabu Sumoge, analyst]

This is Sumoge. Do you hear me?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Yes. Yes.

[Manabu Sumoge, analyst]

Thank you. It was questioned earlier. How do you see FY '24 financial results. When you look at Page 18, the business profit CAGR is 15% from '22 to '25. So for road map 2030, this is written in MTP. So if you were able to achieve the business profit even though you need 10% or more of high 10% teens of growth. So that in order to achieve. Can you really do that? Or maybe towards 2030, this is a longer term. So do we need to see a longer-term perspective for that?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

At the time when we formulated this plan, we do not see any acquisition of Forge and others. So the environment is a bit different. Having said so, the forge advance investment that we made and more than JPY 5 billion is going to arise, and we've been explaining on this several times. Even including that, we would like to steadily grow our profit. For specific figures and numbers, we would like to show them in May financial announcement that we make. And we would like to have your understanding and provide various countermeasures initiatives to support that. We are now doing various calculations. We will be heading for steady profit.

[Manabu Sumoge, analyst]

Yes, you have the CAGR in the short term? Do we need to think about longer term as well? excluding Forge, it could be a comment.

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Well, Still, I cannot comment on that because we don't know the situation yet. And anyhow, we would like to hedge and target, whether it be short term or long term, and that profitability we will be seeking and CAGR would that provide us positive effect and the stance of positioning has never changed.

[Manabu Sumoge, analyst]

Thank you very much. And about the frozen food, I have some questions. Earlier, you mentioned that the next fiscal term, a driver would be electronics materials and domestic food, we can have expect growth, especially North America frozen food and maybe you can expect some growth. Can you talk about what would happen next fiscal year?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Thank you very much for your question. Yes, I think for next fiscal year. Yes, we are formulating the plan at this point of time and have been mentioning that continuously towards growth for the future, we would be doing structural changes, restructuring and so forth. So including that, the next fiscal year will include those things as well.

And one more supplementary comment, both not just on frozen foods, but the B2C area of the food items what happened until 4 or 5 years ago was that term short-term meaning per year profit were pursued and marketing investment has been reduced, and we have seen that result. And at a certain point of time, we were not able to grow the business. And we thought that was a bad thing to do. So for North American frozen food, we do not want to spend more than what we need but towards the future growth after fiscal '24. I think we need to make investments into the marketing and sales, advertisement. Yes, this is for the overseas food as well and Japanese food segment as well. So short-term basis, of course, it is important to have a good positive effect. But that should not necessarily mean that we do not make any investment for the future advertisements and marketing. Of course, we would head for profitability in the short term, but we need to make investments in the segment where it would become a future growth driver.

So by region, by country and by business segment, everyone is now looking at what will be the most effective marketing investment that we could make for the future. And in the Food segment, that was a long-term challenge. And I think that has changed we have that culture now, and we are feeling that. So that is, I think, affecting positively to the unit price growth and so forth, and we can still do that. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. We apologize, but we're running out of time. The next person will be the last person.

[Makoto Morita, analyst]

Morita from Daiwa. This is Morita from Daiwa because we're running out of time, I'll keep my questions to one. So once again, towards next fiscal year, what kind of risks do you anticipate or electronic material and pharmaceutical amino acids, it seems that your communication tends to be pushed out. And sometimes the market is identifying that as a risk. You continue to say you're fine. But then after you say, no, it's actually a weighing on us after all. So I understand that you're running your business well, but for short-term risk, it would be great if you could communicate with that with us beforehand. So when it comes to market risk. So it may not have materialized yet, but going into the next fiscal year in order to achieve your profits, what are areas you need to be vigilant and cautious about, can you communicate one more time what you identify as risks?

[Eiichi Mizutani, executive]

Well, thank you very much for your question, Morita san. There are -- that is a point we need to reflect on internally, but political risk may be one risk because it's election year. So we need to continue to closely watch where that's headed. And there may be disputes or conflicts as well in regions around the world, which may be ongoing. And also defensive risk it hasn't been completed yet, but risk taking is another area that we need to work on or else it will in turn, turn into a risk. And at our management meetings.

An area where I believe there is opportunity for improvement is -- well, the reason why I wanted to join this meeting is when it comes to global trends or the thought process of investors as well as analysts is something I felt that I need to grasp because although I thought I was making effort, I don't think my efforts are sufficient. So the Investor Relations organization now is going to be strengthened and reinforced. And also linkage and communication with the management meetings will be done. And business owners will more be communicating about short-term and long-term risk. And when it comes to peers, especially your competitors and their trends as well as when it comes to our customers' business performance as well as the views that they state regarding their outlook, we would like to be more sensitive to what's happening.

So basically, what you've just pointed out as a concern is something we would like to respond to due to hindsight. So we will take this on as a challenge. And we do -- we have already took this on as a challenge, and I do believe the countermeasures are in place. Look forward to that.

[Operator]

Thank you very much. That's the end of Q&A. And Mr. Fujie would like to say a few words.

[Taro Fujie, executive]

Despite your busy schedule, thank you very much for your participation. based on your comments and what you had pointed out, we want to continuously grow our business. And also, we want to speed up, but also scale up the business. And we want to remain this as a footprint, and we would like to have you further understanding. We want to exert our efforts so that we will be able to get your understanding and support. So taking this as an opportunity, I would like to also continuously have communication with you. Thank you very much for your support.

[Operator]

Thank you. This is the end of the conference call. Thank you very much for your participation. Thank you.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]