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Ajinomoto Co Inc
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Good afternoon. I am Nakano. I would like to thank you for attending this call. And I would like to start the meeting. Please refer to the material. I uploaded the PowerPoint material, and I would like to base my explanation on this material, Page 2. These are today's key messages.
In the third quarter, again, we achieved increase in sales and business profit. In both the sales and business profit on a quarterly basis, on a cumulative basis, we achieved record high levels. Prices of raw materials and fuels currently are remaining high overall, and we do expect the trend to continue into next period. Given such situation, we plan to implement additional pricing and other measures in order to strengthen profitability.
Third point, with regards to the annual forecast of FY'22, considering the current status, we already have solid visibility insight for the achievement. Currently, we are refraining from revising the full year forecast. In the third quarter, when we look at each segment, the progress is in line with what we have anticipated in the second quarter. Last point. Currently, we are preparing Medium-term ASV Initiative 2030 Roadmap, we are in the discussion phase last week as well. We were discussing on this. And on February 28 and March 1, we plan to hold our sessions -- briefing sessions on this topic.
Next page. This is the digest highlight of the financial results. In all of the major segments, we achieved increase in sales. Even excluding currency translation, we achieved nearly a double-digit growth in terms of the sales. For organic growth, it is 10.8%, and the progress is in line with the target. And Seasonings and Foods and Frozen Foods segments. In these segments, the sales increased, thanks to the price revision. Also in Functional Materials business and Bio-Pharma Services & Ingredients businesses, we achieved strong sales, and these were the drivers.
Also, we factored in the decline of PC demand in the Functional Materials and the sales progress is in line with the company's plan. In the short term, we do expect that we will receive to a certain extent, impact of the deceleration of PC demands. However, we are making progress in diversification. So we do expect to make progress in line with the plan. For business profit, it is JPY 119.2 billion. On third quarter cumulative basis, this is record high. Excluding currency translation, year-on-year, 100% is the achievement. And in the third quarter, we increased the profit, excluding currency translation.
Major factors include Seasonings and Foods segment and Frozen Foods segment. Well, in these segments, we did receive impact of raw material, fuel and logistics cost increase. However, we received significant increase in profits in Functional Materials and Bio-Pharma Services & Ingredients.
Next page shows the factor analysis. On a cumulative basis, in the third quarter, the net cost impact of raw materials, fuel and food raw material costs was negative JPY 8 billion. In the second quarter, the actual of the results in -- up to second quarter was JPY 8 billion. So in the third quarter, we were able to counter these influences. The initiatives to raise prices are being felt gradually.
Turning the page to Page 5. One of the things that impact performance will be fermentation raw materials. For main fermentation raw materials, we have been seeing a stabilization. And on the right-hand side, we show a graph and that's how it's likely to look like through the building forecast, we will be closely watching the trends accordingly, and we'll be deciding with our response. As for next fiscal year, for main and sub raw material prices, we are expecting trends to stay high or based on that assumption, we are putting together our outlook. So we are not being
optimistic for this area. That is the way we are probably going to be building our plan.
Turning the page to the next page, on Page 6. Items that impact business results. In the Seasonings and Foods business, as a result of conducting proactive pricing, we have been seeing a positive impact, meaning we are now close to being able to offset the cost increases monetarily at the business profit level. For Q3, the cost increase and the offset was about at the same levels. On a cumulative basis for Q3, it was volume growth. It was 4% and unit price growth was 8%. We have been seeing sales volume growth, especially in the overseas businesses.
Furthermore, regarding the future for Q4 in Thailand, we are planning to increase ready-to-drink coffee, Birdy prices. So we will continue to closely watch cost trends and act with agility where necessary. So this will be ongoing. And also for next fiscal year, what we've been doing already regarding pricing, we will be benefiting on a full year basis next fiscal year. So we would like to ensure that the profitability mix improves, we will be putting importance on this.
And for Page 7, this shows a breakdown by segment. Towards the achievement of our outlook, we are pretty much in line with expectations so far. And finally, to conclude my presentation. Regarding business profit, factors that lead to changes in business profit is broken down by segment. And as you can see, Seasonings and Foods and Frozen Foods. The impact from pricing is going to show some contribution. And with that, we do believe that the achievement of our outlook will come into view. The cumulative up until the third quarter is shown at the top and the bottom half is the forecast that we set forth as of Q2.
For Seasonings and Foods through pricing, we should start to see more impact that's positive. And on top of that for Frozen Foods, in Q4 last fiscal year, because of Omicron and its expansion, it was in a poor condition. But now we have pulled out of the situation. Therefore, we do believe that we will see a better situation. So based on this going forward, we will be making marketing investments steadily in line with our plan so that we could see further growth next fiscal year. So that is what we are discussing. And that's -- it was a little short, but that is it for myself. Thank you very much for your kind attention.
Thank you very much, Mr. Nakano. We would like to now start the Q&A session. First question from Daiwa Securities, Mr. Morita.
Can you hear my voice?
Yes, we can.
I have one question. The profit progress is quite solid. I think it is the extension of the announcements we heard in the past. In the new fiscal year, what are the potential risks, possible risks? Could you please comment on the risks?
Yes. Well, as for risks, further increase of the cost of fuel and raw material costs, we need to take measures in terms of pricing, but we need to also look at the economic conditions, and there may be some tough situations in the overseas market, especially we have been raising prices up until now, and we are maintaining or increasing volume. So in terms of the physical strength, we still have enough room.
For FX, currency, frankly speaking, it is rather difficult to forecast. So we are taking a conservative view that is necessary. To a certain extent, we factor in the strengthening of the yen, and we need to move in an agile manner. That is what we've been discussing internally. Regarding consumption, you don't know what happens, but you don't have worry, right? In terms of the competitive environment, there is no risk. Well, competition is continuing in all areas. In that situation, we are securing our share and making efforts noted. And lastly, the strengthening of the yen, you said the conservative view is necessary in the next fiscal year. What is the degree of negative impact that you are assuming. FX trend in the future, we don't have much visibility right now. So we will be calculating that going forward.
The next question is from Mizuho Securities Mr. Saji.
I have a question about Thailand. For Flavor seasonings and Umami seasonings, you did a price increase in August. So where are things right now is my question. And for the Chinese, they are poised to visit Thailand going forward, I presume. So to that end, compared to the past, what kind of impacts are you expecting going forward?
Well, for Thailand, in the previous year around Q2 to Q3, there were some government subsidies available and demand as a result was brisk. So when you compare against that period, this year -- fiscal year Q3 is expected to see a drop off by a certain degree. But towards the fourth quarter, sales volume is likely to recover. So we presume that things will trend in line with expectations and also for ready-to-drink coffee, [indiscernible] pricing has passed and things are trending favorably at this moment. I hope that answers your question.
Yes. And the question about the Chinese, I think that's an area where we can expect something positive. Actually, in November, I went on a business trip to Thailand. And there were a lot of traffic in place because suddenly, they open up the country. And now there's tons of tourists in the country again. So the sentiment in Thailand is better than before. I personally felt that. Compared to pre-COVID, changes in the market, do you think that in Thailand, there is likely to be a tremendous amount of positive impact?
Well, tourism has pretty much been devastated over the course of the past 3 years. And Thailand originally is a country that had tourism accounting for about 10% of their GDP. So if this were to improve, it should be positive overall for the country.
Got it. That's all from me.
Next question, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Tsunoyama, Tomonobu.
I'm Tsunoyama, from Mitsubishi.
We can hear you.
I have 2 quick questions. One is frozen foods. When I look at third quarter figure, I don't see much change. In today's explanation, you are delivering some positive message. What are the good changes you are seeing towards second half compared to the first half. And ABF sales in the third quarter, how much was it? And in quantity-based unit base, how much increase did you achieve in the third quarter?
Thank you for your question. For Frozen Foods, third quarter, in the latter half of the third quarter, we achieved a cost improvement. In the past, there were various challenges related to production. The cost increase factors related to production, partly were offset by the support from Japan. And on a monthly basis, with everybody or with related department members, we had discussions on a monthly basis. especially for home use, in October and November, we raised prices, and that has been penetrated thoroughly. And we believe we can achieve improvement to bring it up to in line with the plan.
Another question related to ABF, the Functional Materials business in overall business, the sales progress is in line with the plan. In up to fourth quarter, well, 3 months in third quarter alone, it was 119%.. So for ABF, the progress is even higher than this. Originally, in the 9 months period, the original forecast was 123%, and that was the annual forecast. And the cumulative 9 months is 126%. We cannot provide the breakdown, but we do have impact from the PC demand deceleration, but the demand for servers continue to be strong on relative terms. So it's in line with the plan.
I see. For next fiscal year onwards, based on your explanation, the medium-term plan does not have to be revised, but rather the business is progressing steadily. Is that the correct understanding?
Yes. That is the basis of our discussion.
Next person is from SMBC NIKKO, Ms. Takagi.
Hello, this is Takagi speaking. For Bio-Pharma Services & Ingredients, I am looking at this part. It may not be good to look at your performance on a quarterly basis. But ever since the third quarter, it seems that top-line is very strong, that's how I feel. So I was wondering why is that the case? And also for process, when you look at the cumulative numbers leading up to the quarter, it seems that you are exceeding plan, no? Can you give some commentary?
Thank you for the question.
Actually, I haven't been able to dive into the numbers that much. So my question might not be accurate.
Well, regarding the third quarter, whether it be for North America or Europe or for Japan, on a by region basis, shipments have been steady.
Nakano-san, well, amino acids and Bio-Pharma Services, can you divide it into the 2, if possible?
Well, first of all, for the third quarter -- would you like to hear about the third quarter or also on a cumulative basis as well?
Because I feel that you are exceeding plan, and is this strong momentum going to be sustainable loading up into the next fiscal year?
Well, as for Q3, first of all, for amino acids for pharmaceuticals and foods, for amino acids, sales volume has been dipping somewhat, but the mix has been -- has had a positive effect, and that is why top line has been growing. And also for culture media, there has been a deviation in shipment timing and top line has been declining. On the other hand, for renewable medical regenerative medicine, or culture media, although the volume is small, we have been seeing growth in top line.
That's for medical use, right?
Yes, for culture media, we have it for biopharmaceuticals and for regenerative medicine. We divide it into the 2. And we have been putting focus on regenerative medicine applications, and we have been able to acquire new customers to which we are now shipping.
For Bio-Pharma Services for the third quarter, Japan, Europe and North America, in each of the regions, we have been seeing top line growth. So things have been in line with our expectations. And for the third quarter, high profitability products have been shipped. So regarding whether or not this momentum is going to be ongoing, it's more about we have been seeing business progress in line with our expectations. I'll keep my comments there.
Okay. Well, the progress rate is quite high. So against your plan, are you seeing trends that are exceeding your expectations?
For Q3, yes. But for Q4, depending on customer trends. It's -- the issue is around shipment timing for this business. So right now, we are viewing that -- we are seeing business progress in line with full year expectations. That is our view
So thanks for progressing steadily. So the story is you have experienced cost increases that weighed on profitability. So you're expecting profitability to deteriorate in half by a certain degree. But what about next fiscal year? How should we look at this?
For this fiscal year as well, in Q3, we have been able to turn into the black. And also, we have been seeing improvements in product mix as well. So for next fiscal year, we would like to ensure that we are able to grow top line as well as profits in line with plan. And we have the confidence in doing so. So meaning an increase in profits -- not turning positive, I'm sorry, I made a mistake there.
Next question from Okasan Securities, Sumoge-san, please.
For Seasonings and Foods, against the plan, what is the profit progress, the breakdown between Japan and international? International, under Appendix 3, Asia turned to profitability from third quarter. And in the Americas, I think it's about Brazil, continues to be strong. And I think that the price revision is penetrating solidly. The domestic market, the profit margin has started to decline from second quarter. Can you explain the progress by breaking them down into domestic and international business?
Just a minute, please. This is really in detail. Your question is on sales and profit. Main is business profit against the plan and the progress. Domestically, home use and business use, the results are broken down into these 2 categories. For home use, the sales is 97% for a 9-month cumulative. For business use, the growth is 112%. Regarding overseas, for sales, it's129% and business profit, around 104%. Those are the progresses. Regarding overseas consumers, in the third quarter, on local currency base, we achieved increase in profit.
Against the plan, overseas is good and domestic is slow. Is that right? Or is it more consistent?
As you say, domestically, we continue to face tough environment, tough meaning that partially cheap private brands and competing products are winning shares against us. We have raised prices steadily. So going forward, we will focus on initiatives such as marketing measures so that we can win back. So we are taking various measures, In June, at the end of the year, we received a very positive influence.
In that case, in the previous communication by your company, you talked about overseas seasonings -- and Sauce & Seasonings being the driver overseas. But price revision and -- is penetrated and cost increase subsiding. So in fourth quarter, you are on the right track to improve profitability.
Well, we need to achieve that. In our management discussion, we have been saying that, and we are taking measures So we believe we can achieve the plan.
What about domestic market?
Next fiscal year, cost pressure continues to be strong and margin continues to deteriorate in the first half, but you can absorb by increasing prices. In the domestic market, as you say, the base increase of the wages, whether that will move forward, and that will become an important factor. We have implemented price revisions, and the next step is to expand the volume by running various campaigns and by introducing various marketing initiatives. Currently, we are putting our focus to activate the sales.
So can I continue to ask another question?
Yes. Please go ahead.
On Slide 4, the business profit factor analysis, in the third quarter up to third quarter marketing investment seems to be very limited. So against the plan, when I subtract, as Nakano-san said, the plan itself says that you will invest in marketing. However, you're not going to invest in the fourth quarter the entire remaining amount, which is more than JPY 10 billion. It will depend on the sales volume and the price comparison with the competitors. We will monitor those factors in judging marketing investments, that's how we've been doing. So it's not that we will need to spend all of the remaining marketing budget. We will monitor the progress, and we need to ensure that we will create momentum that brings us nicely into the next fiscal year. That is the direction. Cost, how will that develop?
That is difficult to forecast.
But marketing is controllable and plan, you have some buffer, I believe. And once the raw material cost trend settles down, then next fiscal year, you are likely to achieve the plan?
Yes.
Next person, JPMorgan, Ms. Yoshida.
This is Yoshida speaking. I have one question for you. Bio-Pharma Services & Ingredients, there was a question about it earlier. For Bio-Pharma Services, just limiting my question to this sub-segment. Q3 in Japan, Europe as well as in North America, you were able to increase top line and high profitability shipments happened in Q3 and you were seeing things were trending in line with your expectations. I want to delve into that.
For the high profitability products, is it as it is? Is that correct? And for each of the regions, you were seeing business was good. But is that because of different customers for every region? Is that the right way to view this? And when you're talking about top line growth, is this on a local currency basis? And also, can you give us some guidance looking out into the next fiscal year?
Right. Thank you. Thank you for the question. Whether or not it is on a local currency basis for Bio-Pharma Services in Q3, even on a local currency basis, we were able to see double-digit growth. Also especially for AJIPHASE and how it performed was your question, but AJIPHASE also grew in line with plan. Up until the third quarter, it steadily grew in line with plan.
By region, whether the customers are different or not, applications and the products we make are different, so they are different. But in Japan, it's mainly about AJIPHASE. And for Europe, it's [indiscernible] mainly. And for North America, fill and finish. And low molecular sorry, for low molecular is the main product for Europe as well as in North America. For oligonucleotides, it's not for Europe and the U.S. It's more about Japan where business is firm and solid. Well, we are working to manufacture in Europe as well. But currently, the shipments are mainly being made from Japan. And the customers are not just Japanese customers. meaning shipments from Japan are being made to overseas markets and also North American shipments are made to other regions as well. So globally, Bio-Pharma Services, the business is being managed and controlled on a global basis.
Got it. So AJIPHASE customers, they are not limited to Japan, but also in other parts of the world?
That is right. We ship from Japan to other parts of the world.
From next fiscal year onwards and how you're going to build your expectations for next year? Can you talk about that as well?
Well, like we've been talking about from before, we pretty much have the same way of thinking right now. And in the 2030 road map, the growth in the health care business is a matter of how we accelerate, and we are discussing around it. And we should be able to speak about it more in March.
Next question from Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities, Miyake-san, please.
I'm Miyake from Morgan Stanley. My question is related to Slide Page 8. When you explained this slide, you talked about the Seasonings and Foods and Frozen Foods, you have a better visibility in these segments now. And in the beginning, you have said that the solid visibility in achieving the full year plan is now there. And Healthcare, the fourth quarter growth will be slower and Other segment seems to have a larger growth rate. So is your message meaning that you have outperformed the plan so far?
And my interest is profit driver for the fourth quarter. If you could explain in more detail about the profit drivers in the fourth quarter.
Well, as much as possible, we would like to overshoot the plan if that is possible. That is what the management is thinking. As I have explained, in the Seasonings and Foods and Frozen Foods segment, first of all, the impact of the pricing up to now will be felt in the fourth quarter to a certain extent. And for Frozen Foods, fourth quarter of last year's number was quite tough. So that part is right now normalized.
With regards to Healthcare, the remaining number is [JPY 700 million] and it's not rational. And we also are hoping to be able to overshoot in this segment. In Others, there is impairment loss booked last fiscal year. So for fourth quarter, we will be able to deliver solidly. JPY 133.0 billion is the minimum line. Right now, the FX is fluctuating, but we can achieve JPY 133 billion.
Under Others, regarding this segment, in the fourth quarter, you can basically expect the increase of profit and the gap with the plan will expand. The Others segment will be affected by special factors. It's not that this additional [ 22 ] will further translate to expansion of the gap. But overall, our intent is to achieve JPY 133 billion.
Regarding ABF in the third quarter, the progress was in line with the plan. Originally, the explanation was that it will decelerate in the second half. In the fourth quarter, it may be slow. I think you made that comment in the beginning including fourth quarter, do you expect in line with the plan? And shall we expect impact until the first half of FY '23 or not? If -- could you give us some hint?
First of all, regarding the plan, we plan on an annual basis. In the forecast, we have announced the annual figures, and we do believe we can achieve them. For FY '23, there are various ways to look at. And currently, we are scrutinizing various viewpoints and in the process of developing the plan. In the medium to long term, we have a target at 2025 -- CAGR target for 2025, we do expect to achieve. And this story is intact.
PC demand slowness, I do understand. And other areas, momentum continues to be strong. Is that correct?
The first part, I couldn't hear. Could you repeat?
The PC demand, that is the factor of the slowdown. I do understand that part. But other areas, a server application the past growth rate of the sales will continue. This growth in this area continues to be strong, and that is our understanding. So PC is a short-term issue. In other areas, you're not seeing slowdown.
Yes. That is also our view.
Here's the next question from Citigroup, Mr. Miura, over to you.
This is Miura from Citi. My first question is about your pricing power. I just want to check on it. For Q1 and Q2 and Q3, how much of pricing took place? Can you give some commentary quantitatively? And on top of that, in the Nikkei the other day there was some coverage about JPY 45 billion worth of pricing that is likely to take place for the year. It was speculation, but how much of pricing are you expecting to take in Q4? And regarding the degree of the pricing impact, can you give us more commentary? That's it for me.
Okay. Talking about the second part of your question first. The waterfall chart that we were talking about earlier, on a net basis, JPY 8 billion is still negative, which hasn't really changed from the second quarter. Our original plan was to have the net impact be minus JPY 5 billion. So through pricing as well as cost reduction, we wanted to fill this gap. And for cost reduction, up until Q2, it was JPY 2 billion and JPY 3 billion by Q3 was already achieved. So making more progress on cost reduction is one thing. And also through pricing, we want the minus JPY 8 billion to be about minus JPY 5 billion. And towards the cost increase of JPY 50 billion, we are able to offset that by JPY 45 billion against greater raw materials and fuel costs. So things progress steadily in the future as well, we are making efforts.
Furthermore, the other thing about price increases in Q1, Q2 and Q3, unfortunately, I don't have specific data with me right now and I think it's a nondisclosure item, so apologies that we are not able to give you that information. However, like I talked about earlier, up until the third quarter, for overseas Sauce & Seasonings, the unit price growth on a cumulative basis has been 8% and sales volume up until the third quarter on a cumulative basis has been 4%. And for the third quarter, on a unit price basis, we have been seeing approximately 9%, and sales volume growth, about 2% for Q3. So that's where we are. So prices are going up steadily. We have been successful in our pricing for overseas Sauce & Seasonings. That is on Page 6. That's the only part we are able to show.
The growth pricing as well as the growth pricing impact, can you give us some more tips, not on a net basis, on a gross basis?
Well, the difference in sales volume, the difference in unit prices. we are preparing internally so that we can provide more guidance. So please give us more time. Apologies.
Oh, no, not at all. I understand where you are with overseas. But for Japan and your pricing power there, we need to look at things on a consolidated basis. So as Ajinomoto, as a company, we want to feel your strength. And in order to gauge that, we need some kind of benchmark. And we do understand that you're proactive in your disclosure. So as a next step, it will be great if you can disclose your global average at least.
We're not hiding anything. It's truly a matter of not being able to gather sales volume data on a company-wide basis, which we are currently working on. So we would like to prepare so that we will be able to disclose that information eventually.
My second question is, I just wanted to thank you because Nakano-san, you announced -- your company announced the movement of the executive today. And I was able to see the disclosure that you are going to retire. Therefore, I just wanted to extend my gratitude. Your stock prices have been going up substantially, and I think you played a large role for the equities market. I think you did a great job in your responsibilities for the equities market. So I just wanted to take this opportunity to thank you
Well, Miura-san, thank you. Thank you for all those words. Personally, through the communication I have had with you all, I think I grew and developed as a person. So I really appreciate this opportunity. Thank you very much.
This concludes Q&A session. We would like to close the conference call for today. I would like to thank you for your participation.