Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd

TSE:2587

Earnings Call Transcript 2018-Q3

[Haruhisa Inada, executive]

This is Haruhisa Inada. I will explain the financial results for the third quarter of FY 2018. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, revenue was JPY 972.1 billion, up 4.5%. Operating income was JPY 94.4 billion, up 1.4%, and net income was JPY 65.8 billion, up 11.5%.

Please turn to Page 3. Let me explain revenue and profit by segment. On a currency-neutral basis, Japan and Asia were main drivers of revenue. In terms of profit, while Asia had a significant increase due to the gain on the sale of food and instant coffee business, profit decreased in other regions, particularly in Japan and Europe. I will go over each segment in detail on the following pages.

Please turn to Page 4. First, Japan. Revenue was JPY 536.8 billion, up 2.6%. Segment profit was JPY 39.9 billion, down 12.5%. While the market growth during January to September is estimated to be around 2%, our sales volume increased by 4%, supported by the good performance of core brands such as Suntory Tennensui and BOSS. Suntory Minami-Alps Tennensui Sparkling and Craft BOSS were particularly strong and were able to capture new demand.

On the other hand, profit was significantly lower than the previous year, mainly because of 2 factors. First is the deterioration of product mix as a result of declined sales of FOSHU products, et cetera, compared to the previous year. And second is an increase in supply chain cost. The increase in supply chain cost was caused by inventory buildup toward summer in preparation for increased demand from the heat wave and new products launch as well as price hikes of raw materials such as resin for PET bottles.

On top of these factors, temporary costs associated with logistics turmoil incurred from the heat wave and natural disasters during the summer also had a negative impact on supply chain cost. Deterioration of product mix and logistics turmoil in summer heavily affected our vending machine channel. Along with the increase in operation cost, the environment surrounding the vending machine business is getting tougher.

On the next slide, I will explain the impact from the heat wave and natural disasters during summer in detail.

Please turn to Page 5. This summer, a record heat wave pushed up beverage demand greatly. Amid such a situation, several natural disasters occurred, causing a major disruption to domestic logistics system. First event was the heavy rain in western Japan in early July. Freight trains of JR Sanyo Line, an important logistics artery, were interrupted by the heavy rain, causing immediate disruption to the distribution network in western Japan. In a situation where the entire beverage industry suffered great obstacles in securing delivery means to supply products, we put our utmost effort in ensuring supply of our product.

Meanwhile, the rise in transportation costs and inevitable use of different distribution routes than usual pushed up supply chain cost at a stroke.

After the heavy rain, Typhoon Jebi severely hit Kansai region, damaging our assets such as vending machines. To make the situation worse, Hokkaido was struck by a strong earthquake on September 6, which caused damages to our distribution center within the prefecture. The recovery cost for distribution center in Hokkaido as well as other additional costs directly associated with the series of natural disasters in summer summed up to approximately JPY 1.5 billion. Fortunately, disruptions have mostly been resolved by now.

Now please turn to Page 6. Next, Europe. Revenue and segment profit decreased by 0.1% and 16.6%, respectively, on a currency-neutral basis. Thanks to the favorable weather in summer, France covered the revenue decline due to bad weather in the first half and market stagnation in Spain. As a result, cumulative revenue from January to September stood at about the same level as the previous year.

On the other hand, profit was significantly lower than the previous year because of active investment in MayTea and the rise of supply chain cost in France. I will explain the situation in France, the U.K. and Spain in detail on the next page.

Please turn to Page 7. In France, MayTea sold well along with core products such as Orangina and Oasis, thanks partly to the intense summer heat. On the other hand, profit was impacted by active investment in MayTea and increased supply chain cost. Although supply chain management itself did not face as much disruption as the previous year, in addition to the continued and chronic truck shortage, greater demand from the heat wave led to disruption of the distribution network in the society. As a result, our supply chain cost increased significantly than expected.

In the U.K., market disruption after the introduction of sugar tax in April has subsided, and the market grew significantly, helped by the good weather in summer. Also, successful promotional activities brought Lucozade Energy back on to upward sales trend, and Lucozade brand turned around from the slow performance in the first half and posted a major increase in sales volume by 15% in the period from July to September.

In Spain, the summer weather was as usual, but the market could not recover from the slowdown due to the bad weather in the first half, and the overall market trend continues to run below the previous year. Amid such situation, we maintained our market share, but the sales volume of Schweppes declined compared to the previous year. In addition, we also actively invested in MayTea in Spain.

Please turn to Page 8. Asia. Revenue and segment profit increased by 21.6% and 77.4%, respectively, on a currency-neutral basis. In terms of revenue, newly established joint venture in Thailand and the beverage business in Vietnam continued to perform well. The beverage business in Indonesia also grew steadily. As a result, Asia region as a whole posted a double-digit revenue growth. Revenue from existing businesses also increased by 6.6% on a currency-neutral basis. Profit increased sharply due to the gain on the sale of food and instant coffee business. Profit from existing businesses also increased by 4.1% on a currency-neutral basis.

Please turn to Page 9. Oceania and the Americas. In Oceania, revenue decreased by 0.2% on a currency-neutral basis. Segment profit decreased by 11.5% on a currency-neutral basis, impacted by price hikes of raw materials in addition to the decline of Frucor Suntory revenue.

In the Americas, revenue decreased by 1.5% on a currency-neutral basis as our core category, carbonated drink, continued to struggle. Segment profit decreased by 8.5% on a currency-neutral basis, impacted by price hikes of aluminum and other raw materials.

This concludes my explanation on the financial results for the third quarter.

Next, Yuji Yamazaki, Senior Managing Executive Officer, will explain the full year forecast for FY 2018.

[Yuji Yamazaki, executive]

This is Yuji Yamazaki. I will explain the full year forecast for FY 2018.

Please turn to Page 11. In regards to the full year forecast that we announced in February this year, based on the results up to the third quarter and the projections for the fourth quarter, we revised the operating income forecast to JPY 118.0 billion. However, the revenue or net sales is expected to be in line with the initial forecast on consolidated basis, thanks to good performance of core brands and new products mainly in Japan.

Also, net income will fall within expectation due to improved finance income and costs as well as decreased taxes. As a result, the forecasts remain unchanged from the initial forecasts at JPY 1,293.0 billion for revenue and JPY 80.0 billion for net income. The dividend forecast of JPY 78 also remains unchanged from the original forecast.

At the earnings release for the second quarter on August 6, regarding the full year forecast, I mentioned that we would aim to achieve the full year forecast despite the downside risks of a few billion yen in operating income. However, the environmental changes beyond our expectation at that time, particularly in Japan and Europe, occurred, making us revise down the operating income forecast. I will explain in detail on the following pages.

Please turn to Page 12. Here are the forecasts by segment. While each region has different trends for revenue, we are aiming at achieving initial forecast announced at the beginning of the year on consolidated basis.

Regarding operating income, although we made an upward revision for Asia from initial forecast, other regions, mainly Japan and Europe, are expected to have lower revenue than initial forecast, and the overall profit was revised down by JPY 9.0 billion, 7.1% less than initial forecast. As a result, overall, we aim to have a JPY 59.0 billion increase in revenue, while operating income remains to be flat compared to last year.

Next, I will explain factors behind increase and decrease of profit in each region in detail by separating the factors occurred in the first half and the second half.

Please look at Page 13. This slide explains the factors that caused revision of operating income's full year forecast. First, Japan. Upon closing the first half, we were looking at the heat wave as an opportunity to recover from the underperformance of the first half due to the deterioration of product mix and increased supply chain cost. However, costs in the third quarter increased JPY 4.0 billion more than expected. As a result, combined with approximately JPY 2.5 billion of underperformance in the first half, we made a downward revision of JPY 6.5 billion in total.

In regards to the factors of decrease, in the second half, as Inada explained earlier, natural disasters such as the heavy rain in western Japan, a series of typhoons and the Hokkaido earthquake, as well as the logistics turmoil due to record heat wave, directly caused additional costs of about JPY 1.5 billion.

Other than the above, in the vending machine business, sales opportunity lost from the inability to deliver enough products due to the logistics turmoil and operation cost increase due to shortage of human resources also had an impact.

Additionally, further price hikes of raw materials such as resin against the backdrop of higher oil price also affected the profit. Despite the revenue increase, thanks to hot weather, the effect of above-mentioned cost increase was larger, making the profit to be behind the forecast by JPY 4.0 billion just within the second half.

Next, Europe. As Inada explained, disruptions caused by the heat wave added more to supply chain cost in France, and Spain was slow in recovery, especially for the trend of on-premise channel, pushing down the profit forecast by about JPY 1.0 billion in the second half. As a result, combined with approximately JPY 2.0 billion of underperformance mainly due to bad weather in the first half, we made a downward revision of JPY 3.0 billion in total.

In Asia, the gain on the sale of food and instant coffee business was higher than expected at the beginning of the year that we made an upward revision of JPY 2.0 billion.

In Oceania, in addition to the revenue underperformance, we faced price hikes of raw materials, such as resin, that we made a downward revision of JPY 0.7 billion.

In the Americas, in addition to the delayed sales recovery of core carbonated drinks, profit is negatively impacted by price hikes of aluminum, resin and other raw materials that we made a downward revision of JPY 1.3 billion.

To conclude, we expect to mostly achieve the revenue or net sales target for this year, thanks to the good sales of core brands and new products, mainly in Japan, Asia and Europe. I believe this is the result of our continued focus on revenue growth.

On the other hand, we had to revise down the operating income forecast as a result of a series of unexpected events.

Going forward, we will unite our effort across the company to take on the structure reform that our CEO, Kogo, had mentioned in the earnings release for the second quarter so that we can enhance the profit-generating capability in the rapidly changing business environment in order to realize the medium- and long-term growth.

We appreciate your continued support. This is all from us.