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Thule Group AB
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Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Thule Group Interim Report First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. My name is Bruno, and I'll be the operator of today. [Operator Instructions]
I'll now hand over to your host, Magnus Welander, CEO and President. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Bruno. Good morning, everybody, for this 2023 Q1 report.
And as we had expected, it was a slow start to the year. So if you can go to Slide 2, please. We knew that we would be facing a tough bike retail situation with bike retailers having significant stock on hand. And on top of that, of course, we are also facing in reality, a very tough comp period because last year in 2022, during the first few months of the year, there was an extreme stock buildup by bike retail. So our sales ended up at 31% down FX adjusted, which is very much in line with our expectations. It is a small growth versus 2019, the first pre-pandemic year of 12%. So it's not catastrophical from that sense. But of course, clearly, we are feeling the situation of bike retail placing very limited orders as they instead sell down their stock.
What I'm very happy with in the quarter is our ability to still deliver a very strong gross margin. Our gross margin improved to 41.2%, which is at 1.2% improvement, but actually, at 1.5 percentage points currency adjusted. And the key contributor to that is, of course, the fact that we, during 2022, implemented price increases also mid-year because of the situation of costs out there. If you look at a positive situation as well is that we see that the freight cost are returning to more normalized level after having been extreme during '21 second half and 2022. We also see a clear positive channel mix as retailers are having an inventory sell-down period and, therefore, are buying less product from us.
We don't have that impact in our own direct-to-consumer where we, therefore, have grown our share of sales that goes direct to consumer. That was happening anyway. Even without retail inventory adjustments, the channel mix would have anyway gone to direct-to-consumer because that is the winning and fastest-growing channel we have, but that it was accentuated in Q1 than when retailers sold down stock levels.
There was a negative effect in the fact that we still have a significant under-absorption in our factories. And that is, of course, because we have decided not only was our sales limited, but we are also on the journey of reducing our own inventory levels, which did go down in the quarter with SEK 158 million. So the fact that we are seeing an inventory reduction plan going ahead at the same time as we're selling less, means we're producing significantly less hours in our plants than we did at the same time last year.
And in fact, we are -- at the end of the quarter, 900 people less in our plants than we were at the same time in '22. That has been done because we have a very efficient 3-tiered staffing level in our production facilities. And we couldn't react fast enough during the second half of '22 with a very rapid and significant slowdown in the bike orders. But we could then act anyway during the second half, and now we see the positive impact from that.
From an SG&A cost point of view, we are at a steady level. In fact, we have a cost reduction in terms of constant currency of SEK 17 million. And that is despite a very aggressive, continued product development push and earlier than normal push also in marketing efforts as we see a number of key launches and also fairs and events coming earlier than they used to do in the past. Overall, that meant that we delivered an EBIT margin of 17.2%, which is down significantly versus 2022, but still a strong margin considering the negative sales development and the under-absorption of our factories.
If we go to the next slide, we'll talk a bit more about the timing logic in what will be an extreme year once again to compare to. So if we look at Slide 3 and talk about what we're seeing in terms of sales by quarter. We knew when we stepped into the beginning of the year that we would be facing the toughest quarter in terms of the comp reality in the first quarter. And the logic is clear that was due to the fantastic sales in 2022, especially by retailers were aggressively filling up inventory, expecting a fantastic bike sales years.
Now we are seeing the absolute opposite of that. But therefore, we see also that if you look from a comp period now going forward, the second quarter is also a challenged quarter, which had 43% growth versus pre-pandemic times, while the first quarter had a 64% growth. And then we have 2 clearly weaker quarters, which only grew 23%, respectively, 28% versus 2019, as we already then saw a dramatic and rapid bike retail slowdown on sales. So a tough first half and a very easy second half, comp-wise.
We, therefore, have had a lot of discussions, and I know there has also been among investors and analysts a lot of attempts and speculation and tries to try to find where is that point when bike retailers will find their normal inventory levels. And if you remember what we stated already way back in September last year, when we did a profit warning for the coming quarters, we announced that we felt it would not be possible for the bike retail sector to normalize their inventory levels until sometime during the peak season, which is always in the spring of the following year. We said already at that time, and we have reiterated that in the last 2 quarterly reports, that it's going to happen sometime between April and June. And the most optimistic people in the world were saying April, and the most pessimistic people in the world were saying around end of June.
When we now look at April, it's clear that the most optimistic people were wrong. We were not among them. We did not believe it would materialize in April, and we're starting to see finally towards now the end of April, some good bike orders coming in. We know that the situation will be improving from a retail inventory level on a weekly basis now because we see the sellout are starting to happen, and we're starting to see orders picking up. So by the end of the second quarter, I am convinced that we will have seen a normalization of those inventory levels. That will mean also on a comparative basis, we will have our worst-performing months versus compared to last year in the beginning of the quarter. And then as sales started to slow down of bike-related products towards June, we will, towards the end of the quarter, see stronger comparable numbers with bike retailers having now adjusted their inventory levels.
It is, of course, in general, though, still uncertain market conditions out there. And I know all of you speculating the same way what will happen in total with the concerns that consumers have in terms of what their spending can be. And we will be needing to be very flexible on various product models and be very much on top of the trends that happen also in the coming quarters.
If you go to Slide 4, we'll talk a bit more about what has happened in the region, Europe and Rest of World. And if you look at Region Europe and Rest of World, we saw a 26% decline versus the very strong 2022 in constant currency. It is the bike capture that was hit very hard. But we also have seen a relatively cautious retail in the total outdoor arena, and that is as people that have followed Thule for many years and have been investors of Thule for many years knows that in the months of March and April, we have always said that there might be due to when the Easter season hits and how good the weather is, you might see sales moving between those ending of the first quarter and beginning of the second quarter. So what we clearly have seen is a cautious retail sector being a bit worried about what will happen in a consumer pattern and also never blame the weather. It's just facing its timing differently, but it didn't help us that it was a week and late spring.
When we look at the RV Products category in Europe, which is the dominant part of our RV Products sales with more than 95% of sales in that product category happening in the European Region. It was a strong, solid quarter with positive growth, thanks to that the motorhome manufacturers are now starting to catch up with those order backlogs that they've had for a very long time during the pandemic. So despite everybody's concerns about what will happen when motorhomes are significantly more expensive since the last few years and also, the discretionary spending opportunity for consumers, there is a very healthy backlog that now finally the motorhome manufacturers are filling up and sending out.
As our products are mounted and assembled either by the manufacturer or at a dealership because the consumers won't trust themselves just quickly attaching it, that means that we are partly connected to that performance. We are outperforming the market once again, as we've been doing for the last 17 years. And I'm sure we will continue to do that. But we have to be aware, as we have noted a few times, that the biggest interesting point for the RV Products sector in Europe will not be what the order backlog is at the moment. There will be solid sales. It is more how many new consumers are filling up at the end of that order book now when there might be more concerns about the financing on those vehicles.
We also had a very strong Packs, Bags & Luggage performance, but that's logical, to be honest, because if we talk about tough comps, we can also talk about easier comps. And as most of you will remember, 2022 Q1, there are still significant limitations on travel opportunities for people in Asia and Southeast Asia. Those have been loosened up. And when people are commuting back and forth to work and commuting back and forth to universities, they buy laptop backpacks and other things. And when they are starting to travel internationally, they buy carry-on bags and duffle bags. So we are seeing a solid sales growth driven by a more return to normal in Asia, but also by very strong collections in our new Luggage series that have been receiving very positive reviews in the marketplace.
So if we look at it from that point of view, you also naturally can follow as a consequence, which geographies did best in the region. It was the Southeast Asian and Japanese markets and also China because those are markets, which had limited sales last year and also markets where we had a higher share of our sales in the Packs and Bags and Luggage category and less in the bike-related categories. We also had a very strong performance, same thing due to a weak comparable last year in all the markets close to Ukraine. So we saw a significant and very natural concern after the Russian invasion to Ukraine, and consumer market concerns were significant in 2022.
Now there is a positive normal momentum actually in those neighboring markets, which means that we have a strong performance in Eastern Europe in the quarter. As I mentioned, for the total group is also applicable specifically for Region Europe and Rest of World that our direct-to-consumer sales shows a very strong growth in actual numbers. And then if you combine strong growth in actual numbers, albeit from a very low percentage, it still impacts us positively as we also saw a clear retail slowdown in ordering as they were selling down inventory. Our path of growing direct-to-consumer will definitely continue in the coming quarters.
In next page, we look at the Americas Region, so on Slide 5. We can see that the actual number in terms of comparative versus the fantastic 2022 was a 45% decline. The reality is that in North America, we were catching up much later, as we have reiterated a few times in our ability to fulfill the orders during the pandemic. So we were still more than in the Region Europe and Rest of World actually selling bike-related products still into early Q1 '22 that had been already ordered for '21 late, which means the comp is extreme. If we would go all the way back to 2019 comparatives, it is actually very similar performance between the 2 regions. As I said, bike category is also here the one that has hit the hardest and also here similarly as to the major retailers in Europe, there is some cautiousness in the -- how much they are bringing in orders ahead of the spring.
In this market, the very small niche product, RV Products impacts very little. We've had fantastic growth numbers there for a while, and you won't be surprised of me telling you, if you looked at the motorhome sales and the whole caravan and ultra-home industry, that, that was not the case in the first quarter of '23 because it's been very slow in general in that market. Within Packs, Bags & Luggage, we continue to grow after commuting to back and forth to work and universities start to pick up and as people fly around more.
In terms of geographies, it was the Latin American distributor markets that showed the growth, the smaller markets we deal in. And that's partly once again, if we're honest, as we always are, it's due to the fact that we saw a relatively weak ordering in 2022 in those markets in the first quarter. Also in the North American markets, U.S. and Canada, where we do direct-to-consumer sales, we saw a significant share increase of our sales in direct-to-consumer. Once again, a combination of us continuing to show actual growth and then as a share, of course, with retailers adjusting and balancing inventory, it became also a higher share of sales.
If we then go over to the financials, I'll leave it over to Jonas.
Thank you, Magnus. We are now on Slide #6. The sales of SEK 2.226 billion in the quarter was 31% below the sales for the same quarter prior year, excluding FX effects. This is on an expected level. And as in the previous quarter, sales of bike-related products continued to be slow. Please bear in mind that we are looking at tough comps from last year's first quarter. And part of the strength in that quarter was because of sales of bike carriers at the end of 2021 spilled over into the comparison quarter. Q1 '22 -- and that was due to delays that we had in 2021. As Magnus said, our customers are still reducing inventory. So our sales do not reflect end customer demand. On the positive side, we saw an increase in sales of Packs, Bags & Luggage and a continued good level of sales in the area of RV recreational vehicles.
The gross margin is slightly higher than for the same quarter last year, and the improvement comes from our ability to quickly adjust variances in production volume, drastically reduced freight costs and effects from price increases. Regarding freight costs, last year, we had to accept container prices from sea freight that were almost 10x the current level. Operating expenses have increased slightly from SEK 522 million to SEK 534 million. But excluding FX effects, it's a reduction of 3%. Savings are coming primarily from sales and marketing costs as a consequence of the lower variable costs relating to sales. We are continuing our spending on product development.
As a percentage of sales, the operating expenses are 24% compared with 17% prior year Q1. The EBIT margin of 17.2% is a 5.6 percentage points lower than last year's 22.8%, but only 1.3 percentage points below the average for 2017 to 2019, that is before COVID. The finance net in the quarter is lower than Q1 2022 because of higher interest rates and higher utilization in our banking facilities. Tax for the quarter of SEK 84 million corresponds to a tax rate of 23.3%, which is in the middle of our guided range, 22% to 25%.
We now move to Slide #7. And the operating working capital was SEK 3.418 billion at the end of Q1 '23. Excluding currency effects, the inventory has decreased by SEK 200 million compared with the same time last year, which is in line with expectations since the first quarter of the year is not a big quarter for bike-related products, and that is what we stopped up last year. Inventory levels on these products will come down substantially during the coming 2 quarters. Accounts receivables of SEK 1.85 billion are lower as a consequence of the lower sales, and so are accounts payables compared with prior year. As a percentage of sales, the operating working capital is 36.6% at the end of Q1 2023.
The operational cash flow for the quarter was much higher than last year, primarily because of the increase in inventory in Q1 '22. The stock buildup we usually have in the first quarter is going the other way this year. Capital expenditure was SEK 59 million in the quarter to be compared with SEK 148 million for the same quarter last year. The capital expenditure relates to investments made in our production. As we have communicated the capital expenditure for the full year will come down in 2023, but proportionately not as much as in the first quarter.
Thank you.
Thank you, Jonas. If we then go to the next page, Page 8, and talk about what is so key for a true global lifestyle brand. We are in a very positive momentum in terms of the strengthening of the Thule brand. And one of those key efforts that have been recently implemented is that we made a significant upgrade of the most important consumer interaction points we have, thule.com. So in March '21, we went live with a significantly enhanced thule.com. We do that mostly because it's our most important channel to drive sales in all channels. We also will get, we are convinced, a help and boost in driving more share to direct-to-consumer by having significantly improved the site. It wasn't like the site was bad before. It was actually, according to many, a very good site.
But we've taken all the learnings we've had over the last few years and new expertise in to truly user interface designed approach because we, with very different product categories, some more emotionally easy buys, like a good looking to Thule Aion carry-on bag, and some where you truly need the technical advice to make sure you bought the right product, like a roof rack for a specific car, means that the whole approach that we guide the consumers through is needing to be different in terms of how we assist them as an online expert adviser. At the same time, we have one global brand with a fantastic lifestyle positioning. So if we correctly, like we do better today on the refreshed thule.com, show and cater for that feeling and propose other new products, we are convinced it will drive sales in all our channels.
What we also are doing significantly is to use our great product offer to now, when the world is back to a more normal place and everybody is allowed to travel around and be at fairs and events, is we are once again with all the very exciting launches that we're doing for trade for next year, but also for consumers in stores this year. We have dialed up our efforts and, as I said, have some earlier than normal seasonality phasing of some of our marketing spend. The image on the below right is an image from the Copenhagen Airport where we showcased during the big Swedish and Danish sport, winter sport holidays, our new Thule Caprock roof platform and a lot of other cool Thule products to showcase the lifestyle that our brand enables.
If we go to the next page, I'll talk a bit more about then on the new product launches, as we're on Page 9. We are doing some key consumer launches in the spring 2023. And we quickly have mentioned some of them here, but I can tell you there are many more. The Thule Approach tent is the most spacious rooftop tent in the market. It is also recently awarded with a new Red Dot Design Award. And also, if we look at our fantastic Thule Arcos rear of car premium hard shell box, it has garnered significant attention in the marketplace, as not only is it great looking and very practical, it actually enables to reduce the famous range anxiety for all those e-car buyers. In fact, in several studies, proven both by ourselves, but also external third parties and media, it is in fact with a number of car models, the fact that if you put a Thule Arcos at the back of your car, on the towbar, and load your bags in that one versus having the same bags in the trunk of your car, it actually reduces battery consumption. So that has been a very big PR and media attention grabber.
I already mentioned the fantastic Thule Caprock. That is something for the true outdoor enthusiasts. Those people that used to love the Land Rover Defender and nowadays maybe are already drooling about the Grenadier coming out with very cool vehicles. But it actually works for a normal vehicle like a Subaru or a Volvo also to create that platform for new adventure and put a lot of gear on top. And then, as I will show you more soon on another page, a fantastic launch of Thule Epos, a revolutionary premium rear car bike carrier that hit the stores as of last week. A fantastic step-up on what is today's the world's best, the Thule EasyFold XT. And now we're taking another level with the Thule Epos.
We're also coming with a number of key launches, as you are aware, for '23. And I think we were a little bit hot to trot to show the Thule Epos. Since we are on the image of the Thule Epos, I can mention and show a little bit what it does. It is foldable. It has wheels. You can roll it out to your towbar. You can just tilt it on your towbar. You have a loading ramp. It can grab virtually any type of bike in any type of position on the bike. There is the possibility to add a locking for a key lock for your bikes. There's a possibility to have a bike repair stand, sitting on the carrier. And when it's sitting, which is the below picture on the low end, when it is not having bikes on, you don't even need to tilt it the way to open your trunk because you can just fold down the arms.
So to go back, and you don't need to go back to the slide, but can we still mention it. The fact is that we are launching also our dog products, as expected in Q3, the Thule Allax dog crate, the world's safest dog crate. And we will also, of course, launch a number of new bag collections, et cetera. I also want to use this opportunity to let you know that we have decided to delay the launch of our car seats to the market, which were planned for Q4 in '23 to the spring '24. The reason is we have had longer-than-expected lead times of deliveries of the assembly equipment and some of the electronics for those products. And we want to be 100% sure, of course, from a pure safety point of view, but also from a mass manufacturing capability that once it hits the stores, we can continue with solid supply throughout the launch period and the ramp-up period.
So we are entering into a very exciting trade introduction period, and that trade introduction period will start with a huge fair that is called Eurobike, where, among other things, Thule Epos, as you see on the screen, will be showed, but also some very high volume driving new products that will hit the market in '24.
So if we go to the last page, Page 11. That is a key focus of what we're doing at the moment, preparing for those launches. Our growth strategy remains unchanged. We will definitely focus on driving profitable organic growth with great products. We have the strongest assortment of new launches we've ever had in the history of the company in the coming 18 months. And it is high volume driving type of products. So it's not niche products. So I feel very strong about that. We are continuously dialing up the efforts of the lifestyle brand, Thule, with the Bring Your Life tagline. We are, of course, capable now of handling growth since we have invested well in the back end of our business. So we are underutilized a little bit with the sales we see at the moment. And we are continuing to support those right retailers with the right tools to sell, but we will see a much faster growth in our direct-to-consumer sales channel.
So when we look at all of those exciting news, we also have clearly a reality that we have a low level of production standing. That's a reality. We can't say anything else because not only do we have less sales, we also have a higher inventory ourselves. So we decided to ensure that we reduce that inventory. We will be running with lower production levels. But the plants are extremely well invested with modern equipment, modern automation lines and ready for that volume growth that we're convinced will come. And as you sell down inventory, you, of course, generate a lot of cash, which means we will be very cash strong.
So as a conclusion, before we open up for questions, it is a tough first half to comp against. We have a very easy second half to comp against. There is a fantastic number of launches hitting the market both for the season '23 and for the season '24. There is, however, many uncertainties still in the world. So we need to be quick to act and as flexible as we've been in the recent years, and we will be that. And I will be around also for 1 more quarterly report. But we are already well underway, myself and Mattias, in ensuring that he is well versed and running fast when he hits the ground running in August.
So with that, we leave it to you, Bruno, to lead the questions. Thank you very much.
[Operator Instructions] Okay. We have our first question comes from Daniel Schmidt from Danske Bank.
I'll ask a couple of questions from me. And starting off with what you said in terms of that you're starting to see orders pickup when it comes to retailers and especially, I guess, bike retailers after a very slow start to the year and also maybe the start to April. If we would get to a normalization of bike inventories among retailers in the end of Q2, are you then sort of insinuating that, that would lead to growth in that segment in the second half of this year given the comp level that you have?
I'm not only insinuating it. I'm 100% sure that because the Q2 -- Q3 and Q4 '22 were so weak in bike. So clearly, we will grow in bike in the second half of the year. No doubt.
Yes. Okay. Good. And just trying to get to some more details on sort of the slowness of the start to the year and also maybe Q2. And of course, as I said, you are seeing sort of orders pick up. But do you feel that direct-to-consumer and the other segments, Bags especially, maybe also RV and the fact that you are launching -- you do have a couple of more new sort of high runners or new models in high runners in the legacy business out and you mentioned Epos. Will that be able to compensate a bit better as we go into the spring?
No. I think reality is this, we -- April was such a huge month last year, and it is such a key month. And a slow start of April, therefore, means in practice, of course, that we will not be able to compensate for that in the quarter. It will be dragging us too much. But when we come towards the end of the quarter, the comps are starting to cool down. And at the same time, retailers will have adjusted inventory fully down. So it is going to be one of those quarters where it is actually like that already today. For every day of the month that we move forward, it gets better and better, so to speak, right? It started terribly in the beginning of April. And for every week that it goes, it goes better and better, but it will be only towards the very end of the quarter until it starts to be okay, so to speak.
I.e., where we sort of could reach the same levels as last year, is that? And then from there, hopefully grow, is that sort of how you should view it?
Correct. Absolutely. Yes.
And then maybe given there's so many moving parts and the gross margin really surprised me in a positive fashion being up 120 basis points, and that was despite the under-absorption that you're experiencing in production and also higher raw materials. On the other hand, you do have the tailwind from freight. Is there any way to quantify these effects, the freight, the raw material, the under-absorption? And how we should view it sort of going forward?
Yes. I think the most important in the first half of this year is, of course, that we did do price increases midyear 2022. That as we now have those prices in place, we are getting a positive price effect, which is compensating, as you said, for those very significant costs that we saw at the same time last year. So our pricing power is the key positive contributor. You have -- and that will continue in Q2, clearly, right? But then as we come into Q3, we are now comparing with like-for-like prices because that's what when the second price increase round was done in '22. But it will contribute and help also in the second quarter.
The other positive factor is, of course, a higher share of sales in direct-to-consumer is positive for the gross margin. And although from a small basis, when that category is -- and that channel is growing and at the same time, as retail was placing fewer orders due to selling down inventory, the share grew faster than it would normally. That will continue partly in Q2, but then it will be more than normal comparison. That means we will grow faster in direct-to-consumer, but not at the same extent. So that positive contribution will taper off a little bit and be less positive contribution.
The freight, I'm convinced will continue to be a positive contributor, but a reality is the worst prices were in Q1 and Q2. So the upside versus last year is less towards the end of the year because freight prices were coming down. And then the product mix, which is negative at the moment as we are doing better with the low margin categories, that will start to be positive towards the second half of the year. So I wish I could make it easy for you. But as you said yourself, there is a lot of moving parts going into this.
I hear you. Maybe just also the raw material. Is that -- that was a negative in Q1. Is that going to turn into a tailwind as we get through the summer?
It only really goes in to be a tailwind when we've sold down our inventory because we have to be clear about the fact that we bought that inventory at high material cost. So there is no true tailwind utilizing the higher-cost products that we do have an inventory, and we will be driving down inventory significantly in Q2 and Q3 as well. So we don't get that positive boost effect of the current market prices, and it isn't as much maybe as some people think, but we are definitely not getting any effect positively on it.
Okay. And then just a final question on -- related to thule.com and direct-to-consumer. And you mentioned that you've done sort of an upgrade of your sort of front office, basically. Is that sort of -- is there more needed in order to grow that business to become twice as big in terms of investments? Or are those sort of investments now in place in terms of infrastructure and maybe you...
I feel -- yes. We feel very comfortable that we will be able to double what we're doing without needing to do significant investments. Those investments have been done over the last few years. In terms of reach, you're right, Daniel, we will add a few more countries, but we are in the key countries where we believe where we can in a good way at good margin reach those consumers with the service levels that a consumer would expect from a strong brand in a direct-to-consumer reality. So we will add a few more countries in the European region to this, but we are really in the core markets that will drive the volume. And we do have all those key investments in place. So now it's tactical and classical just utilizing those tools on a continuous basis in doing a better job.
Yes. And maybe a last one, a follow-up on when it comes to product development spending. You made it clear that was still quite elevated in Q1. But you also said in connection with Q4, the product development spending in absolute terms, if I got you right, is going to be lower in '23 versus '22. Is that more going to happen in the second half of this year?
That's correct. So we see a very aggressive spend at the moment. We're bringing some volumes. But if you look at our comparative logic, as we highlighted, '22 had a very heavy spend in the second half. So [indiscernible] differ. But we have, at the moment with, for example, Thule Epos and some of the other products that we are also showing to trade, a very significant spend as we speak in the first half. So there's a little bit of phasing logic more in when we spend it.
Our next question comes from Gustav Hagéus from SEB.
This is Gustav Hageus. So a few questions...
That's your new nickname, Gustav.
A few questions, if I may. Firstly on inventory, again. Could you just kind to elaborate a bit on the geographical differences. Is it fair to assume it's a bigger an issue in parts of North America than Continental Europe? Or could you help us out a bit on bike related?
Absolutely. Yes, you're right. I saw your study that you've done, and it is correct, which is quite normal as historically, it tends to be that the swings are always bigger in the U.S. They run out of inventory more aggressively than they overload on inventory more aggressively. So you're absolutely right the bike retail inventory situation is worse in North America than it is in Continental Europe.
And it is also we have to say, for me, it is quite interesting to see how much it can differ even between brands and companies in terms of retailers in some markets, making sure that they are really on top of it, while others clearly have too much. And so it isn't as clear as saying Country A has too much and Country B doesn't. It even is between retailers and even between specific cities for retail chains. But it is clearly worse in North America. You're right with that.
Yes, makes sense. And referencing the same study that we published, it sort of indicates that perhaps there will be a swing from so much inventory to perhaps going an intention from the retailers to go a little bit lower than what they would consider normalized a few years ago. Is that part of sort of your guidance here that you assume that they will go from high to low before they start to reorder? Or how do you want to think about that, that inventory cycle?
Yes, you're right. It's already clear for us that retailers are already choosing to go lower than they would normally do at this time of the spring season where they would want to have more. And I understand that, having been burned and also needing cash. So I think it is clear that they are waiting longer and longer versus what they would normally do in terms of being ready for a season of [ bikes ]. So it's going to be slower, thanks to that or due to that. And then I am not guiding in the second half for another bull whipped the other way that they get then overly hungry for inventory. I don't think they will. I think they will run the entirety of '23 on relatively meager inventory levels.
Yes, makes sense. And then I have a question, Magnus. You now -- you bring forward the direct-to-consumer opportunity to invest a lot and revamp it. Is there a risk here that perhaps your business B2C is sort of putting some stress in your relationship with the external retail? And to the extent that your products are sort of a buy sale to when someone buys an expensive bike and the guy on the floor is sort of quick to say, should you perhaps get a -- how you're taking that bike home today? Is there a risk that, that extra sales do you get from [ floor ] sales are sort of hurt by more competition from yourself?
I don't think so. Because the reason is we're not penalizing all the professional and great retail partners we have. We are always selling at full price. We're providing fantastic on our own direct-to-consumer. We're providing fantastic service and assistance to help those retailers as well. And I think in reality, you have a little bit of situation maybe I think Adidas is probably the best natural point of comparing with where they -- new management have maybe changed the view of how aggressive they should have been and what they're doing. We've never been as aggressive as Adidas was for a while, maybe overly hurting their situation. So I don't see us hurting any retail relationships due to that.
And your price point in Europe, where you cannot decide retailer price versus -- sort of will you be price competitive in Europe on your D2C offering?
I think there will always be a product cheaper than ours. You will always find on [ Idealo ] or PriceRunner and [indiscernible] a retailer prepared to sell at discount that we don't sell at. But as we see it over time, what we see with strong brands that, that discount level is less than it is with more medium brands. We cannot actually already see that in the marketplace this year when we have seen too much inventory in general.
So I feel that, yes, if you would go purely on price, but if you've done all your search, you found that perfect right product, you've been guided right, there is a certain number of consumers that are prepared to buy it straight from the brand even if they might be able to find it from another site at a discount. And then there are other consumers that will always prefer to hunt for that discount. We're okay with that as well because we're also very profitable selling to those retailers.
Okay. And then lastly from me. I know you -- was it last quarter, you said that while the RV backlog in Europe looks big, you were a bit concerned about potential recalls and those orders sort of not being backed, really. Have you seen any recalls from your end from European RV? Or is that backlog seemingly a true backlog?
Recalls is maybe where that paints everybody bad because it sounds like you have a product recall. So what you mean is somebody stepping out of the line and saying, I had an order, but I don't want it anymore. That is not happening...
Order cancellations, yes.
Order cancellations, yes. So order cancellations, we have not, when we talk to the 3 big players, they are not seeing order cancellations in any significance. And I think it is one of those where it honestly is, it will be more on how many new ones that fill up because a vast majority of those that sat in the long order book backlog had been very, very keen on that vehicle they're finally getting.
So it is less of a concern, I would say, from this financial impact on the ones already in the queue and more of a concern of how a new person, because there is a great visitor in numbers at all the big fairs and events around RV still, but are people as prepared to commit when now those vehicles are significantly more expensive than they were a few years ago and at the same time, cost of life has become more expensive as well. That's going to be telling, I think, throughout '23 from those 3 big ones [ Thor ], Knaus Tabbert and Trigano or how they announced that.
And if I can sneak one last one in. A bit of news that you are pushing the launch for car, baby car seats then into the next year for Europe. Does that impact your entire rollout for -- you had Americas rollout -- North America's rollout in H2 2024, if I recall correctly, and other regions, 2025. Is that whole ladder pushed forward or?
Yes. I think in practice, you want to make sure that everything lands well. I will not be here when they make those decisions. But I think it's logical to say that you absolutely want to land well. You want to roll it out. You want to improve your technical solutions. You're going to ramp up your productions. So it's likely, even if I'm not going to be the decision maker for that, I see it likely that the team will postpone all those other markets the same time period.
Our next question comes from Carl Deijenberg from Carnegie.
So just a couple of few more follow-ups. I think most of it has already been answered, my questions. But I have to go back to the gross margin development in Q1. I mean I understand the dynamics here with the price adjustments and freight and also that you've adjusted your production capabilities. But what was the reason why we didn't already see signs of this in Q4 when you're talking about freight rates already coming down in the second half of last year? And I guess, the midyear price adjustments from '22 also had an impact in Q4. So yes, anything on that would be helpful.
Yes, there's a number of factors. The most important one is, as we said, we did not sit and wait on taking decisions to reduce staffing levels. But we took the choice, as we mentioned during Q2 and Q3 with incoming components, and having committed to seasonal workers to actually use those incoming components and those seasonal workers to fill up inventory. That happened during Q3. In Q4, we were then in, as we did mention, in the worst possible situation. Very low sales, no production to fill up inventory, but still some of the staffing costs associated because we haven't got them all out as quickly as much as we would have wanted.
So Q1 was -- we had more time to be ready to have staffing levels in the right way. There is a higher sales. Sales does have an impact in economies of scale. We are selling more in Q1 than in Q2. So you do get an absorption than in Q4 last year, right? So you do get an absorption from that. So those are 2 key things in the matter. And then there is the freight impact because although they started to go down, we are now seeing some of those materialize in the full impact of what we're doing. So that's the main reason.
Okay. Perfect. That's very helpful. And then I wanted to ask you on the [ DTC ] development here again. Obviously, some nice development here in certain regions. And I just wonder if you could remind us of the share of sales that you see on the group level today and maybe also the respective share of your sales in Americas and Europe and Rest of World.
So overall, direct-to-consumer is a very small share of our sales. We're talking low single digits for the group today. We have the strongest markets is U.S. and Canada, where it's 13% and 12% last year in those 2 markets. Then we have Sweden as the only other market where it's above 10%. And then we were very new in some of the other European markets, those other 7 European markets. So now we're starting to see growth in the bigger European markets, being live now in Germany, U.K., France, and the Benelux region. And so of course, what we will and expect to see is a strong, continued growth in those markets where we're already established.
And to Daniel's question before, we are going to add a few more countries as we move on as well. But it is mostly going to be driven the growth from those markets where we already are live.
Okay. Perfect. And final question from my side on the inventory development, your inventory development and not among retailers. And then down sequentially here in Q1 and also talking about -- we've been talking about in the fall of last year as well a reduction here in the coming quarters. I'm just wondering if you could say anything on your full year ambitions you're going out of '23. I mean, a pre-pandemic year. So I think Q4 inventories has been around SEK 1 billion. Obviously, it's a much larger company today. But anything on this...
Yes. I think there are 3 factors. If you look why inventories will be higher also in the coming years. I'm sure that Mattias and team will keep the inventory levels high. One, because we're a much bigger company. Two, because we're into new categories where we don't have a historical long professional track record of being on top of things. And so you're going to need if you want to have a good service level as you do need, if you want to take market share in a new category, you're going to need to be a little bit higher stock level than you are in something where you've been forever in and you can forecast extremely well.
So reality, due to new categories, that will be higher. Due to a much bigger company, it will be higher. And actually, even if people think that supply chains are back to pre-pandemic reality, the world has gotten a lot more complicated and a lot more complicated and longer lead times. So if you then choose to be a high-service provider with high on-time and full next-day delivery, which is what we do, you're going to need to hold more inventory due to that factor as well.
So we haven't given an exact and I don't want to commit on Mattias and team's behalf, but clearly we had a target to significantly reduce down in '23. And then as we see how things roll out in '24, I think they will potentially reduce a little bit more, but they will be keeping, I'm pretty convinced, higher levels than we used to have.
Our next question comes from Adela Dashian from Jefferies.
A few questions from me. The first one relates to the timing of your sell-through in the second half. So given that you have such high on-time in fall delivery times, what you're selling in the second half, is that going to be the deliveries for building up stock levels for 2024? Or will it be more real-time demand that we fulfill?
What we sell in 2023 -- no, what we'll sell in the second half of '23 is what is sold to consumers in '23. There will be nobody building up inventory levels for '24. Those buildups, if they will happen for inventory levels, will be then as historically done more in the months of March -- February, March, early April, where historically, retailers have wanted to be sure they have the things in-house in case the spring hits hard, so to speak, and early, they don't build up and keep inventory in a normal reality during the second half of the prior year. So what we sell in the second half is sales to consumers.
And in that case, you would then expect a very strong first half of the 2024, if, let's say, inventory levels are completely deplenished?
One thing as strong versus a terrible comp because then we will -- Mattias will have the discussion, it was a weak comp because we had very high inventory levels. If you then take it more from a long-term perspective, I believe '24 will be normalized retail levels and normalized sales, which is not the extremely strong '22 numbers. It is not extremely weak '23 numbers, and you're going to need to go back a bit on that. So it's going to be a complicated comp reality because versus the very weak this year, it will look good. But in reality, I think it will be more normalized when we, in the year, sell products.
Got it. That makes sense. And then I have a similar question, but related to the RV Products. So you've been having pretty good growth for over a year now. But at the same time, the manufacturers are just seeing that growth starting in Q4 and now in Q1. Could you explain who were you selling to throughout 2022?
Absolutely. And historically, our biggest share of sales has gone to big dealerships. So you would go as a buyer or a consumer wanting to buy a small motorhome. You would go to big dealership. You would look at a lot of different versions. And then there were 2 ways you would potentially buy it. In normal times, when lead times had been working, they would have a number of vehicles on display. You would say, I like this vehicle, but I wanted with this bike carrier that awning and that tent. The dealership will then say to you, come back next week and I will have assembled it for you. They would order that from us, they would assemble it, and the consumer would pick it up.
Part of the orders were done the other way that, that same consumer would go to that dealership and say, I want a cool new motorhome, but I want this super, duper cool new one from Knaus Tabbert. And Knaus Tabbert was offering maybe a summer package deal where you could get all this extra cool -- you could get the fridge from Dematic. You could get the awning from Thule. You could get the toilet from somebody else, et cetera, in a package deal.
So for us, at Thule, it was about a slightly more than half of this was dealership sales historically and a little bit less. What then happened when the manufacturers were struggling to make new vehicles, the dealerships sat on a number of vehicles. So we could sell to those guys much more, and we sold very little to the manufacturers. Then now with the dealers are not having so many vehicles because the manufacturers haven't sent them any for quite some time or very few, what we see the good numbers is that when the manufacturers are now doing things, they are showing up at the dealerships, but also there are manufacturers now finally delivering those fully kitted out that some people ordered maybe even 12, 18 months ago with also Thule accessories on them from the beginning. So that's the logic on why we have seen a better split than the actual manufacturers.
So I'm just trying to -- so does that mean that the inventory levels of your product at the dealership are pretty high at the moment because you have been delivering your product?
No, because they have been using those, aside from bike related, actually, even there in the -- even in RV products, they have a little bit too -- they were too excited about bike even in the RV Products category. But otherwise, it's been -- it's normalized inventory levels for awnings, tents and other things in that sector.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Karri Rinta from SHB. Karri, your line is now open. Please go ahead.
This is Karri from Handelsbanken. 2 questions. I missed the first part of the presentation slide. I apologize if you have to repeat something that you have already discussed. But the first quarter sales stronger in Europe [indiscernible] weaker in Americas. Is this all about the inventory levels that you already discussed? Or is there something else explaining this deviation?
It is also a category exposure where RV products is doing better, and we have a large chunk of sales in Region Europe and Rest of World, which is RV Products and a very tiny niche part of it. So that product category exposure difference, of course, helps the European numbers partly, right? But aside from that, it is this inventory level situation. And also, as I said in the beginning, was that we had an extreme comp period specifically in '22, Q1 filling up inventories later on, catching up with orders that we had from our retailers that we caught up already in the second half of '21 in Europe, truly only catching them up in '22 Q1 in Americas. So when you look at the Q1 numbers versus '19, actually, the 2 regions compare relatively similar.
Good. Then in Europe, can you discuss specifically Germany because my hypothesis is that Germany was a really strong market in Q1 last year and then now facing a really tough comp, clearly weaker. Is that correct?
Actually, in the European markets, there isn't huge differences in market performance if you look in individual product categories. And thanks to the German market actually being a strong market for us for RV price, the Germans love their motorhomes, that actually helps the European -- German market's performance. But overall, I would say, if you look at various product categories, a surprisingly similar performance aside those Eastern European countries next to Ukraine, where that was a complete top of orders in March last year. And that's why we're growing in these markets because March is normally a strong month for us. And then as we also mentioned in Southeast Asia and Asia, we're doing well because there, we do a lot of bag sales. And in those countries, they weren't traveling in '22 Q1. But aside from that specific Eastern European focus, by categories very similar performance in the European markets.
All right. Then going back to this weather comment. Is there any difference in how weather impacts Europe versus the U.S. because I've seen some reports that some of the resorts that typically cater to skiers and mountain bikers are still catering to skiers and maybe will not open at all for mountain bikers this summer...
Yes, it's been a weird reality in North -- yes, Karri, it's been a weird reality in North America because it's very much West Coast, East Coast reality, where the snow was fantastic on the West Coast, right? So all our ski products did fantastically well in the West Coast, Canada, West Coast, U.S. and down to Colorado. So while the classical not-so-fun ski resorts, to be brutally honest, on the East Coast, were struggling, now they're struggling the other way around. It's been terrible weather there now, while it's still very wintery over on the West Coast. So I think those things normally normalize out a few weeks into the season, but it's been a strange start of the season in North America definitely.
Great. Then finally, going back to the direct-to-consumer. So how do you -- I mean, this is more of a long-term strategic question because we've seen a trend that some of the pioneers in this, like ESPN, Nike, when they have pushed hard for the direct-to-consumer, that means that they have also quite aggressively cut the number of physical retailers that have traditionally sold their product. Of course, I can understand the temptation because in short term, that will probably mean that your margins will go up. So what would be your sort of instructions or guiding words to Mattias to not make this mistake...
I think Mattias is a very savvy direct-to-consumer online versus retail with all his experience in that. But I can say the team here is also savvy. And I think that combination is we're not going to be dramatically reducing the number of brick-and-mortar stores where you can buy a Thule product because our product makes a lot of sense in brick-and-mortar. What maybe is obvious that we won't be needing as much in the future is mediocre pure online isn't the ideal channel for our products. So if you have great omnichannel players, which have a good online presence and really good store for pickup in store and showing, we're very happy with those retailers. If you have strong truly service adding high-quality online players with a strong presence, it makes a lot of sense. But some of those online retailers that grew 10, 15 years ago purely on providing a pretty crappy service and on the logic of the brands couldn't do themselves, generally, I don't think they will be around that much in the future and Thule shouldn't be with them, either.
Our next question comes from Daniel Schmidt from Danske Bank.
Just a follow-up from me, Magnus. I think you mentioned -- maybe I got it wrong. So correct me if I'm wrong. But did you bring forward some marketing spend? Was that what you said basically?
We did. And that was because we actually managed to launch the Thule Epos bike carrier a few weeks before it was planned to be launched. So some of those marketing costs, which is our biggest launch ever in the category of bike carriers, came actually therefore in the Q1, which were planned and normally historically would have happened in Q2. So that was the reason for that.
And are you saying that, that is going to even out in Q2? Or is that sort of...
Yes. Over the year, we will see a more normalized [ spend ] to this slightly earlier. But if you look at our spend that we would normally do it for the full year, we will be at normalized spending level, so to speak.
Would you care to say that you -- how far above normal you were in Q1? Or does it -- is it a [ meaningful ] number or any guidance?
No, I wouldn't do that. You've tempted me for so many years already to say those type of things, Daniel. I'm not going to fall for it my last few quarterly reports.
Maybe then just a last follow-up on direct-to-consumer. A lot of focus on that today. But -- and as we talked about, you upgraded thule.com and sort of -- does that sort of have you also done upgrades when it comes to delivery capacity? Or was that already state-of-the-art? Or is that needed going forward?
That was already state of the art. And I reiterate our single most important purpose of upgrading thule.com was to drive sales in all channels because it's the consumer interaction point. Many of those people will then go to an [ REI ] Store or a [ Stadler ] store or even buy it on a baghouse.de or something. So by us doing great job, it will drive sales in all of them. There will be a natural help also for direct to consumers. But in terms of the back end, we have already, for years, been servicing smaller retailers with that pick impact type of setup. And so that's why we are so comfortable in now rolling out more markets and planning to take greater share because we know we can handle the whole customer service logistics, payment provider solutions really well.
All right. And these European markets that you're not currently in when it comes to D2C, will they be added this year? And could you name...
They will come in both -- yes, they will come throughout '23 and '24. But I think as we have a true online D2C expert coming on as a CEO, I'll leave it to him to drop some of those fun news when he comes in.
We currently have no further questions. I would like to hand back the floor to Magnus, please.
Thank you, Bruno. Then I want to thank everybody for listening in to the Q1 report and look forward to tell you a lot more about how the things have developed during the spring in our Q2 report in July. Thank you very much. Bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.