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Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Tethys Q3 Earnings Report 2023 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Magnus Nordin. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and hello, everyone. Welcome to the Tethys Q3 2023 call. So Q3 2023, a little bit of a boring quarter from an activity perspective, as I try to say also in the letter to shareholders. We really want to look forward, but we also want to look at what the 2023 year has actually achieved, and we are sort of in the middle of that. But let's look at what we achieved, the highlights for the quarter.Well, a very important one, of course, is that the Block 56, license was extended with -- just over 1 year. So the exploration phase will now expire at the very end of 2024, giving us all of 2024 to get to commerciality. This is by far the main objective of what we are focusing on right now, is to further appraise and explore Block 56, continue work on the field development plan and with a clear aim to bring the block to commerciality as soon as possible in the course of next year.In that regard, we have a fairly hectic fourth quarter. And of course, the third quarter has seen launch of preparations to get ready with the operations side of the fourth quarter for 56. We are looking at drilling the Menna prospect in December, and we are also looking to re-enter the Sarha-3 well and test that also slightly in December or late November.So full focus on 56 and with a fair amount of activity, and all this activity will result in [ data ] that goes straight into the field development plan. And of course, we'll keep you updated how that progresses. We've also completed now the exploration work on 58 with Lahan prospect. And we are getting up to drill the Fahd that can use 1 well in early 2024.And of course, it's a wildcat exploration well, but with some rather impressive perspective resource numbers. And those are really the highlights on what we control ourselves, our operated Blocks, 56, 58 and also 49.Whereas production and financials are almost entirely related to our non-operated 30% interest in Blocks 3&4, where we continue to see a slightly lower production than we have certainly in last quarter. We are seeing signs of a plateau around these levels, and we are now narrowing our guidance to be 9,000 -- between 8,800 to 9,000 for the year.We are still seeing cash flow from 3&4, of course. And the cash flow from operations for the quarter was [ $14.8 million ] after a negative working capital adjustment compared to [ $25.7 million ] for the second quarter after a positive working capital adjustment. Petter will give you a lot more details on that as we move on with the presentation. And cash stands at -- still healthy, just under $30 million, or $27.7 million to be exact.So moving on. Tethys is and remains still one of the largest [ acreage ] holders in Oman with Block 49 up in the Rub Al Khali basin bordering Saudi Arabia. We are turning to frac a well -- the Thameen well that we drilled in 2021. There have been some delays in obtaining the necessary equipment and getting the expertise involved available.Fracking [ crews ] are in somewhat low supply and high demand at the moment. But that work is still ongoing. 56, of course, is the most important part that we have right now. We know a fair amount [ of the ] part of the block, and we have an active program now and 58, I touched on, getting up to drill, they can use 1 well in early '24.A few more details on 56. It's a block bordering the central block in Oman, PDO's Block 6. And right next to where we are operating is the Kareem small fields. That's part of a Medco operation on behalf of PDO. And what we are looking at, particular in the Eastern Flank area is really the continuation of the Kareem field, the same reservoirs, the same kind of prospects and the same play.We are focusing on, first, the Eastern Flank where we know the most. That's where we have drilled 5 wells now, and where we have planned to drill the Menna prospect and where we are working on the bulk of the field development plan for the block.Following the concluded extended well test of the Al Jumd discovery, we also expect to bring some resource numbers into the 2023 reserves and [ resource ] -- third-party reserves and resource report as at year-end 2023. That's the one that's published in connection with the Q4 report.I turn on and look more closely at the Eastern Flank. It's the area that borders Block 6. We have 4 wells in the Al Jumd and 2 of them produced during -- for 6 months. A lot of data and really the important flow data, which will build the basis for how we model the Al Khlata reservoir throughout the Eastern Flank involving -- also including what we hope to see in the Menna prospect once that's drilled in -- during the next month.The work programme for last year saw 2,000 square kilometers of seismic covering part of the Eastern Flank, but also covering what we call the Central Area, where -- if we turn to the next one -- sorry, staying here, where we are looking for prospects outside the, should we say, Kareem lookalike play area. It's, as the name implies, the Central Area. We are moving still within the South Oman Salt Basin, but with a different play, different source that also borders the tertiary basin that comes in from the ocean side.Different [ plays ] that are now being matured as we interpret the seismic and learn more about that area. But the main focus for the quarter -- for the third quarter was Eastern Flank and will remain for the fourth quarter with the drilling activity in Menna and in testing the Sarha-3 well.58, focus for the quarter has been to finalize the South Lahan area in the southeastern part of the block. The work is now completed, and we are reviewing the finalization of the work. This will be -- lead to establishing possible well locations for later for 2024. But the first step is going to be to drill the Kunooz well. Well location has been fixed, prospective resources have been communicated and rigs are being secured as we speak. We expect to spud the well sometime in the first quarter of 2024. And as I say, it is really -- it's a wildcat but with impressive -- with quite impressive prospective resources.Thameen-1 well, as I have mentioned, is really a re-entry and re-testing of the Thameen well that we drilled in 2021. And we are trying to get the [ ducks ] in [ row ] now to secure the necessary equipment, et cetera, for doing [Technical Difficulty] of the well and also of causing artificial fractures into the tight sandstone. This is most likely again to spill into 49, and we are still in the first exploration phase of 49, and we are investigating the best way of extending the possibility to work on 49.3&4 has seen production. Of course, that's where we get our cash flow and production from. You see here a steady drop in production from Q3 '21 to where we are today. September, October shows a bit of a plateau forming. The operator is quite confident that we are going to be able -- that they are going to be able to stabilize production. And we've also seen an increased systematicity in how the operator is approaching the remaining prospects and leads within the block, in particular, in the near field area around the 6, 7, 8 producing fields that we have in 3&4.We're also nearing the completion of the full 3D seismic coverage over the entire Block 3&4 area. And that, of course, will play an important part in the far field exploration as 3&4 moves into next year.On that, I think actually we can reach the financial part. And here we have our expert, our Chief Financial Officer, Petter, who will be delighted to guide you through this.
Thank you, Magnus, and good morning everyone. Looking at the financials for the quarter, I think the standout factor that explains most of what we see is actually the achieved oil price. We had achieved oil price of $76.9 per barrel. That is the lowest we've had since Q4 2021, and that has an impact on our revenue and other income, which is just below $32 million compared to just below $35 million in the previous quarter. However, despite that lower revenue, we see a flattish development in EBITDA of about [ $16.4 million ] compared to [ $16.9 million ] in the previous quarter, and we'll get back to what exactly -- the [ explanation ] behind that.Otherwise, total investments in oil and gas properties is basically unchanged quarter versus quarter, but we do have some negative free cash flow this quarter, and that mainly has to do with working capital, which we'll come back to.Otherwise, we did repurchase some shares in the third quarter, 25,000 in Q3 and ended the quarter on just below $28 million compared to just below $34 million the previous quarter. So coming back to the oil price. As I said, we've had quite a ride in the past 12 months on the oil price. So 1 year ago, we had $107 per barrel and we're at $70 -- just about $77 at the moment.And of course, a movement like that does make its impression on the financials. At the same time, as you can see from the graph to the right, the net entitlement in barrels has been relatively flat over that period, albeit a bit lower this quarter compared to the previous.Throughout this year we have been operating at 52% net entitled, that is the most we can get from Blocks 3&4. So 52% of the produced oil we are entitled to sell. However, it's worth pointing out that, that net entitlement is currently not covering the cost as being spent. So we are building what is called the cost pool of unrecovered costs to be recovered in the future. And at the end of the quarter, we have about [ $17 million ] of unrecovered cost. That is something that we hope to recover in the future or expect to recover in the future as the [ factors ] influencing entitlement to improve.So I think a standout feature for the past few quarters is actually the decline in OpEx. We started the year at quite high levels of $14.6 million, that is OpEx from Blocks 3&4. We do have the addition of some OpEx from the extended well, [ so ] [ it's the ] Block 56 in the past 2 quarters, but that's been largely offset by those revenues. But what we do see is that we have a sequential improvement both in Q2 and in Q3 on the OpEx from 3&4.And we are now at $16.8 per barrel. So even though we had seen some weakness in production development, we are still -- we do believe we have possibly [ bucked ] the trend in terms of OpEx development. And in general, you could say that, that OpEx improvement comes across the full spectrum of cost categories, including production and energy and workovers and such. So that's a positive development from what I would say, are not exactly the satisfactory levels, however.Coming to cash flow and operating cash flow. Well, that clearly reflect the trend that we're seeing when it comes to production and oil price and being offset somewhat by that lower OpEx. But yet with -- when we're operating at full entitlement, we're not able to capture all that expenditure in our revenue, and thus, that does impact our operating cash flow.The full working capital this quarter was [ $16.3 million ] compared to [ $18.1 million ]. However, there was quite a significant swing in working capital, as we have seen from time to time in the past few years, I mean a $9 million swing. But over the full year, that is -- you can see that it is a positive effect. So it's -- one should probably look at the year-to-date numbers to get a representative effect on the cash flow.And that goes for the same when looking at the free cash flow and investments. We continue having quite high levels of spending on Blocks 3&4 as there has been intensive drilling and investment to improve the production performance, something we know can take some time before we see the results.However, the work is being done. And we saw that continuing at a level of over [ $21 million ] in total this quarter. And following that swing in working capital, we have a negative free cash flow of [ $6 million ]. However, on a year-to-date basis, we're just about less than $2 million down. So it's worth keeping that in mind and looking at the longer-term performance and looking beyond the volatility of individual quarters.So far this year, we've also seen slightly lower expenditure on our operated blocks with a lot of that activity being pushed towards the end of the year or early next year, such as the Block 58 drilling. But we do expect to see some activity on Block 56 make an impact on CapEx next year.And with that, we have revised our guidance. Production, we now expect to be in the range for the full year of between 8,800 and 9,000 barrels per day on the full year average compared to previous 9,000 plus/minus 200 barrels. And operating expenditure we now expect on the full year to be around $17.5 per barrel. And we expect investments to be in the range of $81 million to $86 million, meaning that we will have a similar level of expenditure overall in the fourth quarter as we had in the third. And that will all be financed from our cash flow and available cash.Just looking a bit ahead, aside from those investments, we can look at the oil price and the Q3 does seem to be a low point in this year in oil prices. We already now can see that the OSPs for the Q4 on weighted average will be just below $90. So we're seeing a clear turnaround in those oil prices. As you recall, there is a bit of a lag in how we recognize it with 2 months from the spot price to the realized price and with November being the strongest month in this current quarter of almost $93 per barrel. So Q3 bearing the brunt of those weaker prices that we saw earlier throughout the year.And with that, I hand it back to Magnus.
Thank you, Petter. And I must say this is a rather lean presentation. It's only -- we've only been at it for just over 20 minutes. That's almost a record time for quarterly. But -- so let's continue. So for the outlook, 3&4 will remain very important to us for the production and the cash flow. What we are most, I think, excited about for -- going forward is the increased exploration assets and also the -- returning to the Lower Al Bashair reservoir.For those of you who have followed the company, this is actually the first reservoir that ever produced on Blocks 3&4. It turned out, however, to have the Barik layer in Farha South above the Lower Al Bashair and the Barik produced a lot better than the Lower Al Bashair did.But having now reached a plateau on Barik as far as we can judge for right now, at least, interest has come back to the Lower Al Bashair and try and see what we can do with that and making it produce better than it did 10 years ago, and that is going to be one of the main focus areas for 3&4 for the fourth quarter.And of course, continue to follow our monthly production updates. That's a very good indicator for how the production of the blocks is actually evolving. I should also note that, as Petter pointed out, with the current investment on 3&4 we are building a cost pool, which, of course, will be available to us to extract as production increases or costs come down, but that also will see us at 52% entitlement for the -- for as long as we have the cost pool until it's fully paid back.This is something that we will comment much more in detail on as we give our guidance for 2024, which should be upcoming in connection with the fourth quarter report as usual. That be 3&4, which, of course, being non-operated, is something we follow closely, but our main influence and our main [ energies ] are put into 56. That's why we will see a very active program with Sarha, Menna and on 58 we are gearing up to drill a well, and we hope to communicate a little bit more about the prospectivity of particular the Lahan area.And I think what excites us the most, of course, is the work on the field development plan for Block 56. This is the first time that Tethys's operator is managing a block that we're trying to bring to commerciality. There are challenges, but they are sweet challenges.Of course, at the end of the day, if we are successful here, it will open up a completely new development, a new production stream where Tethys will be in control. And hopefully, we will see this as the continuation of growth outside of Blocks 3&4.So on that note, I'm happy to open the floor to questions.
[Operator Instructions] We will now take the first question from the line of Teodor Nilsen from SB 1 M.
A few questions from me. First one is on long-term production trend, as you highlighted that your production has been declining [ over ] the past few quarters. And I think actually, if you look back to 2019, the production has been [ steadily ] declining since then. So I just wonder how should we expect this to develop going forward, given the project you're working now in '23 -- sorry '24, '25, '26, that went through the uptick in the production and at which level [indiscernible] acknowledge that you're not in a position to precisely guide now [ we're ] just directionally. So that's my first question.Second question is on investments for 2024. You mentioned that some investments have slipped into next year. I just wonder what kind of level of CapEx we should expect next year compared to this year? And last and final question is on Block 56. You mentioned that you expect to be able to book some reserves on 56 by year end. just wondering how much should we expect compared to current [ peer ] reserves?
If I may take it first from your third question. Reserves are unlikely since we need commerciality to book reserves. So what we hope to do is to get 56 included in the continued resource category, contingent on among other things, the commerciality of the block. And numbers, it's difficult to say. I mean, we -- the big break for 56 is going to be the field development plan. And that's where we're going to communicate much more along the resource base, also around expected production, both near term and long term. And that's something, unfortunately, you will have to wait for until we are further along with the appraisal of the block and also the [ completion ] of the field development plan. So we expect that for the -- should we say, early parts of 2024 as the work programme evolves.And as for 3&4, that, of course, will be the production from 56 where we will guide as soon as we are further along with the field development plan. And on 3&4, it's a little bit premature since we are waiting for the operator to finalize work we [ had ] proposed to work programmes and budgets for next year. And once we have those and they have been approved by all the various parties insuring ourselves and the ministry, we will be in a position to guide for 2024, what we expect from 3&4.And then I think you had some more. I forget now.
On CapEx, I believe, yes. I think it's -- similarly, I would say it's difficult to give -- and we're not really in a position to provide any real guidance on expenditure for next year. But I think it's fair to say that the big moving parts are, of course, success-based -- looking at Block 56 and the outcome of the work that's done towards the end of this year will determine the work programme for next year, depending on what rate we may be able to approach potential commerciality.On Block 3&4, I wouldn't expect any dramatic changes, but I think we should -- we'll come back to that in Q4. And when it comes to Block 58, I think we're quite clear, we're intended to drill that well, and that's going to be the highlight of that for next year. But when it comes to details, we'll have to come back to that in the Q4 report.
Just want to go back to the production question here. I definitely understand there is a lot of moving parts here. But for, let's say, 2025, do you expect the production to be higher or lower than now, given the potential positive effect from Block 56?
Let us put it this way. If 3&4 stabilizes around these levels or picks up and if we are able to bring 56 to commercial production, we would certainly expect production to be higher going forward than it is today with those 2. It's -- But that's, of course, what we're aiming for. And 3&4 is really not that much in our control, but of course, 56, we should be in a position to base a lot of guidance on a field development plan.And of course, it would be our intention to see a production stream that should increase the overall production for the company. Was that helpful?
Yes, absolutely.
. Anything else for now?
We will now take the next question from the line of Stephane Foucaud from Auctus Advisors.
I'll start by Blocks 3&4. And I was looking at the production guidance for the full year '23. And if we look at the high end of the guidance, 9,000, that would imply that in Q4 we are at 9,000 barrels a day. Given that October has been announced, I think, at 8,400, what would be behind the high end of the guidance? Is it all about the Al Bashair reservoir to deliver? Is it about some exploration success at [indiscernible]? what is it that could allow to reach the 9,000 barrel a day? And maybe related to this, what's the potential in terms of resources of the Lower Al Bashair? Is that [ really ] in the 2C, is that in the prospective resources? How big could that be? So that's my first question.And then the second one, perhaps easier. With regards to Block 58, what is exactly really driving the timing of drilling? Is it availability of rig? Is it permitting? And could it slip a bit further beyond early '24?
So first on production 3&4. The drilling program for 3&4 for the remainder of the quarter has a number of development appraisal wells that will be completed. And if they come in at good rates, there is certainly a possibility that we will see production increase, and that's why the guidance is still 9,000 to 8,800, but there's nothing on the Lower Al Bashair. Consider the Lower Al Bashair at the moment exploration appraisal opportunity.On the reserve side the -- would currently be a continued resource and it's quite possible that there could be movement on the continued resource side, if there is a successful appraisal outcome of the Lower Al Bashair during the fourth quarter.Sorry, what was your next question, Stephane? 58.
Yes.
58 is ready to go, and it's more a matter of finalizing and -- finding and finalizing a suitable rig and move it [indiscernible]. The rig market is active. And at this stage, we would not expect any slippage. There's always a risk until we actually have a rig on its way to the location. But there is enough choice to give us confidence that there will not be any slippage.
And in terms of materiality of the Al Bashair, how big could it be? Million barrel? [ Can you ] -- [indiscernible]?.
I don't think we have really guided on that. It's an interesting question. And let's see if we can give an update during the quarter if we can. Otherwise, you'll have to buy your time until we get the third-party report.
I mean, I can add. I mean, we wouldn't mention it, if it wasn't worth mentioning, however, I mean, but…
That's a good point.
Yes. But we'll leave the numbers [indiscernible].
And you said this is in the [ contingent ] at the moment, if I understood properly?
It might not necessarily be fully captured there. I mean, there has been some, given the historical users there as well, but this is a quite different take on that level. So there is potential beyond that.
To note, as I mentioned earlier, I mean, that Lower Al Bashair has not really been producing for more than 10 years. So it's certainly been on the backbone. And if the appraisal is successful, it would most likely have an impact of some sort.
And perhaps as the last one as a follow on. When do you think you might have visibility on the farmout for Block 58?
The -- I mean, talks are ongoing. I think the closer we get to [ spud ], of course, the more details we'll have to emerge on the farmout situation and where we are at and what's happening with it. So somewhere between now and mid fourth -- sorry, mid-first quarter. Shall we say an obvious update if there is nothing else would be in connection with the Q4, where we should be a lot closer to actually spudding a well on 58. So just stay tuned, both for updates on recontracts and potential farmout updates.
We will now take the next question. It comes from [indiscernible] from [ Commander Capital AS ].
I want to first start out with applauding you for doing heavy investments in what seems like the early [ earnings ] of an oil cycle when most companies are minimizing CapEx and repurchasing shares and paying back the capital to shareholders. Mr. Nordin, we've seen oil production in Blocks 3&4 dropped from 13,000 barrels in 2019 to around 8,000 in 2023. We've also seen CapEx outpacing depreciation in [ 2022 ]. And for the 3 quarters this year, it's been double. Yet, Tethys Oil is trading at half its book value. Could you please reflect on this? That's the first question.
The -- certainly, you're seeing a drop in production. And the trend is for 3&4. And again, that may emphasize, it is non-operated, it has been the lower production increased investments and at least until a couple quarters ago also increasing OpEx. I think there is a need to guide from the operator -- give guidance on what really is in for the next years, where would we expect to see production and how -- what is likely to -- what is the true potential of the blocks. And I think there is certainly uncertainty and until the operator can present that kind of numbers. And that's something that we are, of course, hoping that they will be able to do as they are learning more both about what has caused the drop in production, what they can do about it and as the remaining [ appraisal ] exploration potential of the block becomes clearer. And I think your [ great ] question is simply a reflection of the uncertainty on how soon and how quickly remain reserves will be produced.
I could add there as well that in recent years we've been taking some quite heavy long-term investments on these blocks, including the significant 3D seismic of the large areas of the blocks that are of interest and also investment in gas to power, which aside from improving our emissions profile means we should be able to improve our costs as well and the OpEx, being able to reduce the use of diesel power generators.These are all very long-term investments that we've taken in these past few years, and the [indiscernible] one we hope to see -- yielding results in exploration and appraisal success in the years to come. And really, finding new oil is, of course, key to, first of all, stabilizing but also potentially growing production and doing so profitably.And there's really no shortcut to it. Investments have to be done. And yes, that sticks out in this environment. And it's been -- it has, of course, had an impact on, as you said, both the buildup of oil and gas assets, but also on our cash flow. But we are confident that this block has the potential, and those investments will yield results in a good time.
But to further elaborate on that, what Petter just said, there has been investment. But of course, I mean, if we see 56 have a bright future and if we see that the evaluation -- the market evaluation of 3&4 doesn't tell you what's the true potential of 3&4. It's something we, of course, note and may take action on, but that's in the future.
I appreciate the reflections from both the questions. And then jumping to Block 58, I'm not sure, I might have missed it, but there was no resource potential for the South Lahan area. And I think it was mentioned in the Q2 report that you expected to be able to present that at the Q3?
That is correct. And as we mentioned, the work has been completed and is now being reviewed and summarized. And we would expect to have a prospective resource guidance in the not too distant future.
And then my final question is regarding the oil markets, and specifically to you, Mr. Nordin, due to your long career. In -- so setting some context, in 1998, a barrel oil sold for $12 at the closing of the year. A few years later, ExxonMobil and Chevron did large mergers. Now we're seeing mergers between Hess and Chevron, Pioneer and Exxon. And we're seeing OPEC cutting production into what seems like at least not a declining market on the supply side, just like it did in year 2000s and later in the 2000s OPEC lost control of the market due to maxing their [ spare ] capacity and political unrest. What's your thought on the current situation? And I ask this question because, I mean, the price of oil is the main determinator of how our return on investment in Tethys Oil turns out.
Perfectly good questions. And the -- I mean, oil prices have been at a fairly high level historically over the last 18 months. We've seen some increased volatility. We are seeing consolidation in the American [ Shale patch ]. That consolidation so far has led to, shall we say, more mature investors with a longer-term outlook, which has led to maybe a more predictable production forecast from the United States. And we have seen fluctuating reports on spare capacity from the OPEC [ count ] with a clear -- a very clear message over at least the last 6 months from Saudi Arabia that they consider themselves at the moment the swing producer and that they have the clear ambition to maintain an oil price that they are comfortable with.That's worked for the last 6 months. We continue to see under investment in the upstream sector. I saw a number that we are looking at. But no, we are back to about 60% to 70% to where we were before the pandemic. So it's coming back from 30%, but still below where we were earlier. And we are still seeing consumption increase. Short term, anything can happen. But for the long-term, we are certainly positioning ourselves for a world where oil will be a needed commodity at a historically high price for the foreseeable future. Does that help?
We will now take the next question from the line of Teodor Sveen Nilsen from SB 1 M.
I just forgot actually one question. I wonder on the Menna exploration prospect, are you in position to price also pre-drill estimates on that one?
[ That's ] a -- put it this way. As we approach the spud, we will give as much information as we can at that time. And I can't say right now if that will include a prospective resource. But if not, we will be in a position to hopefully have some -- possibly even continued resources on it by the end, if we get enough data [ well ] before [ December ] report is out. But we are -- if we can't, we will certainly see those numbers in the development plan as it evolves.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Magnus Nordin for closing remarks.
Thank you very much for your interest. Thank you for some very good questions. And on that note, I do hope we will be in touch during the course of the fourth quarter since we will have a fairly large news flow, a fairly active news flow and a lot of activity. And otherwise, looking forward to taking more questions in connection with our Q4 call in February of 2024. Thank you very much.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.