Telia Company AB

STO:TELIA

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q2

[Operator]

Welcome, everyone, to Telia Company's Q2 2023 results presentation. And with that, I will hand over to Telia Company's Head of Investor Relations, Erik Strandin Pers. Please go ahead. The floor is yours.

[Erik Pers Berglund, executive]

Thank you, Sam and welcome, everyone, to our Q2 call with Allison Kirkby, our President and CEO; and Per Christian Mørland, our CFO, who will take us through the Q2 results and then we'll go for Q&A. Allison, please go ahead.

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Thanks, Erik. So good morning, everyone and a warm welcome to the second quarter results.

So as you've seen, we started this year with a full focus on restoring profitable growth momentum in our telco businesses whilst taking decisive action on capital allocation. And this focus continues and is clearly evident in the quarter. The solid telco trends, we started the year with, have persisted and in many cases strengthened further, resulting in a second consecutive quarter of improvement to service revenue and EBITDA.

Telco service revenues improved to 3.2% growth, supported by growth in all markets, all segments and with consistent growth of about 3% in both mobile and fixed services. On EBITDA, the strong telco service revenue growth was more than compensated for a higher cost level in the quarter and resulted in a growth rate just shy of 5%, with all markets back to growth.

The solid telco performance was, however, offset by recessionary fears triggering challenging times for advertising in our TV and Media business unit, resulting in a neutral EBITDA for the full group. But as expected, our operational free cash flow for the quarter was muted. This is in line with our plan for the year, with cash flow turning positive in the second half and especially Q4, driven by higher EBITDA, lower CapEx and working capital phasing.

Leverage increased to 2.66x, primarily on the back of the cash flow phasing and the weakening of the Swedish and Norwegian currencies. And as cash flow turns positive in the second half, leverage will decline and will be further reduced by the Danish sale proceeds.

Strategy execution, as I said, continues at pace with our network technology and security leadership most evident this quarter. 5G rollout and network modernization is progressing well, reaching 84% 5G pop coverage by the end of the quarter and well ahead of key competition.

We're seeing strong growth in enterprise digital services, including increasing momentum in areas such as security, enterprise mobile networks and IoT, contributing to a double-digit growth in what we call beyond connectivity digital services in the quarter. And our strategy to always be the highest quality and the most trusted partner to the most demanding customers was confirmed as we were selected as the sole connectivity provider to the NATO Summit in Vilnius just last week.

Finally, the Danish transaction remains on track and expected to close in Q1 next year at the latest and our outlook metrics all remain unchanged.

In the interest of time, I don't intend to run through our key priorities again. But here, as I said at the beginning of the year, is our 4-pronged approach to building a better Telia and which guides us every day. So let's now look at the progress made against each of these priorities in the quarter in each of our business units, starting with Sweden.

In Sweden, we sustained our 5G leadership with a pop coverage of 73%, up from 63% last quarter. And according to the most comprehensive tests in the market, we have clearly the best network and we believe that we've extended that leadership during this year. This helped drive further improvement in revenue, growing just shy of 2%, as pricing activities and customer experience improvements are starting to yield visible results.

Enterprise was especially strong in the back of an unparalleled level of trust and a superior breadth of digital services. Our ICT business, Telia Cygate, in particular, accelerated revenue growth further to 18%, and IoT services in Sweden also grew to 14% in the quarter. Like last quarter, the growth was broad-based with all major product areas growing and broadband, in particular, improving very positively on the back of fiber price increases.

Excluding the impact from legacy in roaming, underlying service revenue growth was 4.1%, a clear improvement compared to the last few quarters and confirming that we are moving in the right direction. Sweden also moved back into growth territory on EBITDA as service revenue growth more than compensated for salary inflation and higher content costs. But with pricing fully established and good visibility on the cost base for the balance of the year, we are aiming for an improving EBITDA momentum in the second half.

Moving onto the operational KPIs. Despite the weaker retail environment, mobile subs grew in both consumer and enterprise, supported by the lowest churn we've seen since the pandemic. ARPU remained fairly unchanged owing to the popularity of our family tariffs on the Telia brand and the Fello brand for price-sensitive consumers.

Our broadband subscriber base remained stable in the quarter despite significant pricing as growth in fiber and fixed wireless access pretty much compensated for the ongoing decline in DSL subs, of which we now only have 70,000 remaining. New fiber pricing taken in Q1 resulted in good ARPU growth and another quarter of double-digit fiber revenue growth.

In TV, we're continuing to grow in both the SDU and MDU segments. ARPU however, remained mostly unchanged due to a somewhat negative mix shift. But we expect this to improve in the second half as we've just announced price increases ranging from 16% to 25% on our basic TV packages.

Moving to Finland, our 5G network reached 86% population coverage and our strengthening network credentials helped secure new enterprise mobile network contracts in the quarter. We're also proud that our Helsinki data center became even more eco-friendly as its waste heat is now being transferred to the city's district heating. And over time, this will provide heating to 20,000 homes and businesses in the local area.

As you know, we've been working hard at establishing Telia as the most trusted network and it continues to help our growth momentum, with service revenue improving to 2% year-on-year. Mobile growth picked up and reached 2% despite materially lower interconnect revenues, driven by a 3% growth in consumer, while enterprise did see a slight decline in mobile revenues but overall had a strong quarter with strong demand for ICT and professional services as we are also seeing in Sweden.

EBITDA grew despite headwinds in the shape of savings from industrial action in Q2 last year versus a onetime wage settlement of the same amount in Q2 this year. And our subscriber base was relatively stable, even though we have moved away from offering unprofitable cheap subscriptions. ARPU grew by 4%, supported by a solid 9% growth in consumer ARPU.

Moving to Norway. Our 5G leadership continues and we now reach 92% of the Norwegian population, underpinning improved customer satisfaction and growth momentum. This network strength is also enabling growth in wholesale with the migration of Fjordkraft's mobile customers now completed mid-quarter. Consumer, enterprise and wholesale all contributed materially to our 5% service revenue growth.

EBITDA growth was very strong at 14%, supported by the solid service revenue development, lower marketing expenses, some FX and one-off items of around SEK 50 million also helped. But even considering that, Norway really did have an impressive quarter. The mobile subscriber base was stable as a slight growth in enterprise was offset by a slight reduction in consumer. And as you can see, ARPU increased nicely, supported by the consumer segment where we saw an 8% ARPU increase on the back of pricing and a positive mix shift.

And the good news continues as we move on to our LED markets, which, as you can see, had another great quarter with double-digit EBITDA growth across all 3 markets, enabled by the same network and technology strengths, combined with customer experience focus that you're seeing throughout Telia.

In Lithuania, we finalized the network swap to Ericsson and the 5G rollout after reaching 99% pop coverage, way ahead of competition. Service revenue grew 6.5%, with both mobile and fixed contributing at a similar rate. And despite inflation, the flow-through to EBITDA was again strong.

Estonia was also strong, with service revenue growing 8%. And like in Lithuania, it was broad-based, with mobile growing 10% and fixed growing 7%, supported by all services, except for a slight headwind from fixed telephony. And EBITDA growth clearly outpaced service revenue growth despite inflationary headwinds.

Finally, in Denmark, we saw service revenue returning to positive territory, helped by underlying mobile ARPU growth driven by pricing and growth from fixed wireless access and great work on structural cost reduction leading to another very strong EBITDA quarter. With the relaunch and rebranding of our fighter brand, Call me, happening towards quarter end, we expect to see commercial momentum build further during the coming months.

Finally, moving to TV and Media. As I said in my intro, we've seen the advertising market, especially in Sweden deteriorate further in the quarter, leading to advertising revenues falling by 14%. Pay, however, did have a better quarter with revenue improving by 4%, fully supported by price increases. EBITDA deteriorated to a slight negative for the quarter, driven by both lower service revenues and higher content costs, and also IT and general admin did increase, largely driven by the ongoing work to consolidate, C More under TV4 and MTV.

But with more visibility on the C More consolidation and an accelerating shift to digital, we did announce a further efficiency program that will impact the entire organization during this quarter. We expect the benefits to accrue from this as we move into next year.

Looking at the subscriber base, we saw a decrease driven by a challenging streaming environment and normal seasonality, as sports seasons are either coming to an end or taking a break for the summer. Additionally, with more focus on restoring profitability, pricing is no doubt having an impact on our subscriber base. And as you can see, ARPU here increased by 14%.

The actions we took this time last year to refocus the TV and Media unit around the TV4 and MTV platforms with a much more focused premium sports offering, a leaner cost base and even better digital capabilities were exactly the right things to do, especially now considering the major shifts we are seeing in the sector. We're therefore looking forward to launching our new TV4 Play service in August, which will be the first public milestone of our new, more digitally focused future.

And now I'll pass over to PC.

[Per Morland, executive]

Thank you, Allison . Let me quickly summarize the Q2 financials. As Allison has gone through, we have service revenue growth at 1.9%, with telco growth of 3.2%. All our telco units are growing nicely. Telco service revenue growth is driven by growth both in the consumer segment of 2.4% and a solid enterprise segment growth of 3.1%. Total EBITDA is flat in the quarter with telco growth of 4.7%. All telco units reported solid EBITDA growth, with Sweden being flattish versus last year. Energy costs in the quarter is SEK 49 million higher than Q2 last year. The continued sequential improvement over the last couple of quarters is driven by improved telco growth and less negative impact from energy costs.

OpEx increased by 2% in the quarter from higher resource and IT cost versus last year, driven by inflationary pressure and tough comp. Significant resource cost reductions from the Q1 redundancies are, in the quarter, offset by high salary inflation combined with several negative one-off items. IT costs are increasing from low levels last year due to inflationary pressure, not fully mitigated this quarter, combined with some movements from CapEx to OpEx following the ongoing shift towards cloud-based solutions.

Despite significant headwinds, we have, 2.5 years into our transformation journey, reduced our net OpEx by around SEK 1 billion, driven by significant reductions in our resource and IT costs. Our cost transformation agenda remains but the higher and extended inflationary pressure makes it more difficult to realize the full potential of SEK 2 billion net cost reduction by end of 2023.

Total CapEx in Q2 is SEK 3.9 billion, slightly lower than Q2 last year, from low investment in product development and IT. As communicated in Q1, CapEx is to be lower in the second half, especially versus the high Q4 last year. As communicated in Q1, we are on track towards the full year outlook of SEK 13 billion to SEK 14 billion, with the aim of being in the lower end of the range in stable currency.

Let's move to cash flow. All cash flow items in Q2 landed more or less as we expected 3 months ago with the exception of higher accounts receivable balance following the very strong end to the quarter across our B2B business. The structural part of operating free cash flow ended at SEK 0.7 billion in Q2, down SEK 0.8 billion versus Q2 last year, mainly due to 2 factors.

First, Cash CapEx was SEK 0.4 billion higher than last year, mainly due to the phasing of vendor financing effect as we expected of SEK 0.5 billion. Second, interest cost was SEK 0.3 billion higher than last year due to the higher interest rates now starting to kick in. Change in working capital was negative in the quarter due to the mentioned higher accounts receivables of SEK 0.4 billion from the good performance in the B2B business but also as we expected, lower accounts payable from vendor financing and phasing. This was partly offset in the quarter by improved inventory and other items of SEK 0.5 billion. On the next slide, I'd like to give a quick reminder of the cash flow evolution during the year, as we also discussed 3 months ago. The low cash flow generation in the first half was as we expected and we are well on track to deliver on our cash flow outlook for the year. The structural part of cash flow is expected to improve significantly in the second half mainly from lower CapEx levels and higher EBITDA.

Total operating free cash flow will, in addition, be supported by positive working capital development, mainly from the phasing of vendor financing impact with the biggest impact in Q4. Our vendor financing balance is expected to end the year at a similar level to last year, so the negative impact in the first half is expected to be fully reversed in the coming 2 quarters.

Our net debt increased by SEK 5.4 billion in the quarter and leverage ratio to 2.66x EBITDA, above our targeted range of 2.0 to 2.5x. This is mainly driven by the limited cash flow generation in the quarter, combined with FX effect on our issued debt in euro. Proceeds from the sale of Telia Denmark is expected to reduce leverage by 0.2x. The improved cash generation in the second half, combined with proceeds from M&A transaction, are expected to secure leverage well within the targeted range of 2.0 to 2.5x.

And with that, I hand over to Allison to summarize the presentation.

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Thank you, PC. So let's now conclude starting with our full year outlook. As we said this morning, it's unchanged. We expect to grow both our service revenue and our EBITDA this year but more so in telco than in TV and Media. CapEx is still expected to be in the range of SEK 13 billion to SEK 14 billion.

And on cash flow, as PC has described, we are well on track with increasing visibility although with lower TV and media contribution and uncertainty around year-end advertising market. We are likely to be in the lower half of the SEK 7 billion to SEK 9 billion range, if nothing changes versus today. But still, we're expecting all key financial metrics to grow or improve year-on-year despite this challenging environment.

So summarizing the quarter and the outlook, we are successfully executing on the strategy that we set out for this year and proactively managing our portfolio of assets to improve capital allocation for the future. Telco growth is clearly restored and improving, supported by pricing, improving consumer trends and continued strong enterprise services beyond connectivity. In fact, it's probably the best telco quarter ever that Telia has ever recorded.

Network modernization and 5G rollout is on track and well ahead of key competition, strengthening our leadership positions and underpinning our premium market positions, which, combined with our leadership in sustainability, security, IoT and cloud-based solutions, is enabling the enterprise momentum.

Admittedly, we also have a TV/Media business that is having a more challenging time. But having acted early, restructuring and brand consolidation is well underway in the midst of these considerable market headwinds, putting us in a stronger position for next year and onwards. And the Denmark sale is progressing and on track to close in Q1 at the latest.

We also now have increasing visibility on cash flow, albeit with a lower contribution expected from TV and Media. But we're still fully on track for the second half rebound that we've explained since the beginning of this year and so we're reaffirming our full year outlook.

And with that, ready to take all your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Andrew Lee with Goldman Sachs.

[Andrew Lee, analyst]

I just had a question or 2 questions related to your free cash flow improvement in the second half of the year. You've been clear on the unwind of the working capital headwinds and obviously the CapEx dropping in the second half. So I just wanted to ask around the EBITDA side of things and 2 questions there. The first was on TV and Media. Obviously, macro-related pressures in the second quarter. Is the second -- or are the second quarter trends that you're seeing in TV and Media a good guide for what we should expect for the second half? Or should we see improvement or further deterioration? Kind of any directional help there would be much appreciated.

And then the second question was on your telco operations where growth clearly accelerated in the quarter. Should we expect that to continue to improve into the second half given your price rise benefits continue to -- should continue to evolve in the second half? Or are there any other headwinds that we should be aware of as to why telco growth trends can't kick on?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Thanks, Andrew. Yes. So first of all, TV/Media, we still expect the second half to be, from a market point of view, fairly challenging but we don't expect the EBITDA drag to be as significant as what we saw in the first half because we already started to have some negative trends already towards the end of Q4 last year anyway. And we've made some decisions on certain content that we won't air this year too. So slightly less of a drag than it has been in the first half.

On the telco operations, yes, we expect the momentum to accelerate, particularly in the bottom line in the second half built on the great trends we've seen in Q1 and Q2. So pricing momentum continuing. Energy will move from a headwind to a tailwind in the second half. You will start to see some of the structural cost takeout that you've not yet seen in the first half, because we've carried some extra staffing in call centers, in particular, to improve NPS, which is now on track again. And all of that gives us confidence that you'll see overall continuing improvements in the second half.

And remember, we had quite a tough Q4 in Sweden last year, which we don't expect to have this year because we had the [indiscernible]. So overall, really improving telco momentum really drives the EBITDA improvement and not quite as big a drag on TV/Media.

[Operator]

And we will take our next question from Stefan Gauffin with DNB.

[Stefan Gauffin, analyst]

Yes. I would like to continue with the problem child TV/Media, just so that we can try to understand what to expect going forward. If we look at the cost base for TV/Media in Q2, how much is this elevated due to costs relating to the reorganization which we can deduct immediately of the reorganization? And then just if you could give us some indication of how much of the cost base is being reduced into 2024.

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Okay. Yes, our problem child. I keep referring to it as noncore these days. We are -- this reorganization and restructuring that we're doing won't really have any benefits until '24, Stefan, as you're rightly pointing out. So it will be a minimal impact in this year. So I think you should expect a similar cost base apart from different content phasing. But the OpEx base will be pretty solid, maybe a little bit of less IT towards the end but it's minimal.

But we are aiming for one of the biggest restructuring that TV4 has ever done. And I can't really say the number from a headcount point of view because we're in discussions with unions. But you're talking in the 10% to 20% range of headcount, will probably be impacted as a result of the restructuring that we're doing. Part of that driven by the discontinuation of C More and part of that moving to more digital options on content.

[Operator]

And we'll take our next question from Peter Nielsen with ABG.

[Peter Nielsen, analyst]

Allison, you've spoken about the strong trends in service revenues in the telco operations, supported again by your higher net [indiscernible] investments. It seems as if you got the consumer market going and trends in B2B also seems better. Last quarter, I think you spoke sort of enthusiastically about positive early signs in the enterprise market on demand for 5G private networks, et cetera. Is that something which you're seeing coming through now? And are you more confident that you will be able to capitalize on this and on the network investments?

And then just cash flow question, follow-up for PC, if I may, on the cash flow. PC, over the past 1.5 years, I guess, we have seen a sort of continued reduction in the outlook for the operational free cash flow. Is it correct? Judging from your comments, you're now looking at the lower half of the SEK 7 billion to SEK 9 billion range for the structural part. It sounds [indiscernible] on your and Allison's comments that you feel confident that this will be achieved and we shouldn't see any further downgrades to the cash flow outlook in the second half. Is that correctly understood?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Okay. I'll take the first question, Peter. Thank you for the question. Yes, really happy with the telco revenue trends. And we are the leader in the enterprise mobile networks across the region. And as you saw, we struck a few more deals in Finland this quarter. Are they materially driving revenue today? No. But when they are combined with our IoT services, with other cloud-based services and particularly with some of our premium security services, then we really see that as a clear opportunity for us to monetize 5G in the enterprise segment.

And overall, there is great demand from the private and public sector, large and small, for help with their digitalization agenda. I've mentioned it before, we're helping the Swedish energy companies make their grids smarter for the future. We're working with transportation companies using some of our IoT analytics. We're working with property companies on heat optimization too. So overall, really happy with how that business is developing and should enable us to sustain the kind of revenue development we've seen so far this year. And PC, on cash flow?

[Per Morland, executive]

Yes. Peter. Yes, it's been a rocky ride on the cash flow over the last year or so. We are very confident on the outlook that we're now giving. And the reason for that is -- the main discussion we've had over the last year was, following the big changes in the second half on both interest and energy cost, it takes time to mitigate both on pricing and we see now that's coming through. Energy is sort of stabilizing and actually going down a little bit, which is good. And then we had our big challenge on the vendor financing being heavily impacted by the high interest rates.

So when we discussed in the second half last year, we were still kind of looking at how we're going to mitigate this and we're very happy now, as we also did in Q1, to confirm that we are able to mitigate this on a yearly level in '23 but there is this phasing effect that we have talked about now in the presentation, both this time and also last time. But this is now secured. These are agreements in motions and there are very limited risks on the outlook in the second half.

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

It's just the TV/Media piece that takes us back to the lower half.

[Per Morland, executive]

Yes. And then in addition, when the sort of macro effects hitting us, we were at peak CapEx levels. So we got really burned from that, from a cash generation. And as planned, we are steering down the CapEx spend quarter-by-quarter now. And then, of course, what is in a way a bit new, is the TV/Media uncertainty hitting us but we are able to offset with the strong telco momentum.

[Operator]

We'll take our next question from Francesca Schild with BNPP Exane.

[Francesca Schild, analyst]

I have 2, please, if that's all right. My first question is on lead sheathing and that has been an issue based on recent reports in the U.S. So my question is, is there a similar issue in any of your Nordic markets that you operate in with cabling used -- with lead cabling used in Telia's network? And has this been replaced over time? And then second question, if I may, is just on dividend coverage and your thoughts on that.

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Thank you, Francesca. So yes, Telia Sweden, like all utilities, did use lead-sheathed cables from the 1800s and up until 1968. And we're well aware of this current interest in the topic. But we've been conducting responsible dismantling of our copper network for many years already, following all the rules and regulations and always in dialogue with authorities. And honestly, lead leakage from cables is limited and not known to be a health issue.

But let me just give you some facts for Sweden. 70% of the cables that are in the air and underwater have already been removed and we follow a structured process for this, which is expected to be finalized in the next 5 to 6 years. Cables in the ground are generally best to leave in the ground to limit any environmental impact. We know where they are and we remove them when needed. For example, when there's new construction projects. And of the in-ground cables, only around 10% of them are lead-sheathed and the other 90% coated in plastic or other materials. And of that 10%, some of those are actually in ducts or tunnels.

So all in all, aware of the issue. We don't see it as an issue really today but we're following developments because we've been approaching responsible dismantling for many, many years and it's a small amount of cables that are left with lead-sheathing in Sweden. And our other markets have some but to a much smaller extent than Sweden.

And on dividend coverage, we are still within our outlook range for the year that was discussed with the Board when they set the dividend for the year. We always knew there was a risk we would be outside of that dividend coverage this year. And the Board decided that we didn't want to punish the shareholders for short-term macro pressures on the cash flow of the business, considering they were still very fully supportive of our strategy. So that still stands. We are willing to go outside of dividend cover this year and carry a little bit of higher leverage for a couple of quarters. But we'll be back within both our leverage range and hopefully, we'll have dividend covered in the coming years.

[Operator]

We'll take our next question from Terence Tsui with Morgan Stanley.

[Terence Tsui, analyst]

Just picking up on some of the earlier topics. Just wondering whether you're seeing any inflationary pressure on CapEx. And then separately, what did you make of the Tele2 announcement to raise their CapEx guidance? Could that have any implications for you in terms of you looking at accelerating investments in order to maintain your network advantage that you enjoy today?

And then secondly, just on TV and Media, once you completed the restructuring process, you mentioned it's noncore. What do you see is the -- who do you see as the longer-term owners of TV and Media? And what sort of partner do they need in order for this business to thrive in the longer term?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Thanks for the questions, Terence. We've seen a bit of inflationary pressure on CapEx but that was all built into our forecasts and guidance for the year, maybe seeing a little bit more foreign currency impacts because we've had a weaker Swedish and Norwegian krone recently. But overall, we're still very comfortable with the SEK 13 billion to SEK 14 billion that we set out with at the beginning of this year, Terence. In terms of what our key competitor mentioned the other day, it has no implications for us. We had already accelerated 5G rollout. We're at 99%. We've actually swapped and built out a full 5G network and modernized our 4G network in Lithuania already. We're at 92% in Norway. We're at 86% in Finland. We are at 73% in Sweden. So we are way ahead of Tele2 clearly. We're seeing that in brand consideration, in network performance. And so their announcement has no impact on us at all.

And then in terms of TV/Media, listen, there's going to be a lot of changes in that business in the sector, in the region in the coming years based on some of the announcements coming out this morning from Viaplay. So I expect there will be lots of changes happening, lots of consolidation opportunities. And for now, we're just focused on the restructuring to get it back to profitable growth and cash generation. So we're in the strongest possible position to either spin it off into a separate vehicle or to combine it with somebody else's assets at some other time. But at the moment, it's right to just focus on the restructuring for us and get it in good shape for the advertising rebound that will happen.

[Operator]

We'll take our next question from Keval Khiroya with Deutsche Bank.

[Keval Khiroya, analyst]

I have 2, please. So firstly, you've talked about the restructuring you're doing in cash flow terms, you saw a SEK 900 million outflow in restructuring for the first half. I think you talked about a SEK 1 billion charge roughly for the full year previously. What are your latest thoughts on restructuring for the full year? And then secondly, appreciate -- sorry, despite the price increase where you saw a 30-basis point increase in the Swedish mobile end-user service revenue growth, can you talk a bit more about the dynamics here and your views on the degree to which the mobile prices -- price rise you're taking in Sweden?

[Per Morland, executive]

Yes. So maybe I can start on the first question, Keval. On the restructuring charges, you're right, we are at SEK 900 million in the first half. We will be significantly less than that in the second half because a big part of that SEK 900 million was a big resource redundancy initiative that we did in Q1. We don't give specific. In our outlook, we are slightly above our SEK 1 billion sort of run rate that we've been running at for this year. But we are not planning or expecting to sort of see a similar cost in the second half as we have seen in the first half.

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

And then on Swedish mobile ARPUs, we're seeing the pricing is sticking and there has been some additional movements just recently. We've just taken our family tariffs up by SEK 20. Clearly, Hallon and us with Fello have all moved in the low tier more recently. So the prices are sticking but you are seeing mix shifts. And so we are seeing a mix shift into family tariffs. That's why we've taken SEK 30, sorry, SEK 20 on that. And we are seeing a mix shift into the no-frills Fello brand, which we've taken pricing up by between SEK 10 and SEK 30. So overall, we'd like to see more net impact on our ARPU development. But I think we need to recognize that holding it stable when we will not get any extra uplift from roaming or extra uplift from VAS services because, people aren't buying as many handsets at the moment, is pretty good. And it's just important now that the pricing that has gone through stays in the market. And we expect, therefore, ARPU developments to develop over time.

[Operator]

We'll take our next question from Andreas Joelsson with Danske Bank.

[Andreas Joelsson, analyst]

Perhaps sort of an elephant in the room question but the Champions League rights is approaching an end now with 1 season left. And given what you've learned so far and also from what you alluded to the Viaplay announcement, is there any level on that right where you see it having actually a positive business case, either stand-alone or combined with the telco business?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

It would have to be a lot cheaper than it was last time, Andreas, for us to discover that. It would have to be a baby elephant. But at this point in time, it's going to be very interesting to see how that auction plays out considering how all of us are recognizing that everybody overpaid 4 years ago.

[Operator]

And we will take our next question from Ondrej Cabejšek with UBS.

[Ondrej Cabejšek, analyst]

I've got a couple, please. So one on energy. So you mentioned again that energy in 2H will be a tailwind. I'm just wondering how the rolling policy of fixing contracts or hedging over the past couple of months or quarters has been kind of executed on given that the forward curve basically indicates you had a steep decline in prices? So is there a situation where maybe it's positive for a bit to lock-in contracts at lower rates? And how should we think about energy developing as a tailwind potentially even into the next year? That's one question.

Second question, just maybe 2 quick follow-ups, there. One on the question that Andreas just asked, is there a time line? It seems that the auction, because usually you would have had it in 1Q already in terms of the UEFA content? And then the second follow-up on CapEx, going forward, so related to the inflation part of it. Because you said recently or have been saying that in terms of the SEK 13 billion to SEK 14 billion as an absolute number, you're happy with that, at basically a level into the out-years as well.

So is this something that may now change with inflation? And if we potentially offset by a bit of a stronger top line but is the SEK 13 billion to SEK 14 billion still the level despite some of the inflationary and FX pressures that you've mentioned that you would be comfortable with, in the next couple of years?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Okay. Let me take the auction and CapEx and then PC can take the energy question, Ondrej. So the auction timing, I imagine it's going to be fairly soon because it has already been delayed. I'm sure they're following market developments and wondering when on earth to do the auction. So -- but I would imagine it has to be in the next 1 or 2 quarters and I'm not saying any more than that.

And then on CapEx going forward, we are still comfortable with this level that we've now got to, at the SEK 13 billion to SEK 14 billion level for this year. However, as we look into next year and beyond, we will need to look weighted currencies, weighted inflation rates. And we always had an ambition to get to below 15% CapEx-to-sales ratio, which is where we ended with the SEK 13 billion to SEK 14 billion.

So as we move into next year, we'll clearly be looking at the revenue development, the inflationary development and the FX development. And if inflation and FX didn't change much, that SEK 13 billion to SEK 14 billion is probably fine but we need to monitor those elements and see how we're getting on from a revenue point of view as well. But for now, it's good to assume that. And then PC on energy and if you want to build anything on the CapEx, PC.

[Per Morland, executive]

Yes. Just on the energy piece, through the sort of last few quarters, we have sticked to our hedging policy, where we hedge on a rolling basis, so that total hedged for '23 is 50%, that includes solar energy that we get through other parties. And for '24, we are hedged 30%. So that is following sort of similar development as we have seen in the past quarters. So we are not speculating or making any active choices depending on how the spot and forward rates are changing.

We are happy to see that the forward rates gradually are coming down and actually now are more towards sort of the usual levels that we have seen in the past. But then, of course, one of the reasons why we see a higher energy costs in the second half, even if actually spot prices are down, is that we are now hedging on a higher level than what we historically did. If you look into the second half of this year, we -- as it looks now, with our hedging and the forward rates, it doesn't look like it's going to be as high as it was last year, so you can very quickly get SEK 100 million to SEK 200 million positive versus last year, both in Q3 and Q4.

[Ondrej Cabejšek, analyst]

Just to clarify, you said higher in 2H, that would have been higher in 2Q rather, just to clarify?

[Per Morland, executive]

Yes. So the energy cost is higher in Q2 this year versus last year by SEK 50 million. And in the second half, it's going to SEK 100 million, SEK 200 million lower by quarter.

[Ondrej Cabejšek, analyst]

And then just in terms of the outlook for '24, if things stay as they are and if they would, of course, you've done some hedging in the meantime, obviously the 30% for next year, is that kind of balanced out? Would you say that '24, as it stands, should be roughly neutral or is there another kind of tailwind potentially?

[Per Morland, executive]

I'm going to be very careful of not sort of predicting how energy pricing is going to be developing. But if we're using our current hedge position and with the current forward rates, it looks to be quite sort of neutral or quite in line with this year.

[Operator]

And we will take our next question from Nick Lyall with Societe Generale.

[Nick Lyall, analyst]

Just a quick one, Allison , on the TV and Media as well, if I could. So you mentioned, I think, in the -- previously you talked about, sorry, previous profitability being reached now. You mentioned cash generation today. Could you sort of quantify the target now for that business? What are you expected to do in terms of EBITDA or cash in the future once you've run through the restructuring plan? And how long does it get to do that before you do the stuff that you mentioned to Terence about, thinking about JVs or other things?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Yes. No, I've always been clear, again EBITDA and cash generation is pretty similar, give or take, the odd kind of timing of auctions or content and it is to get it back north of SEK 1 billion again. That won't happen next year because we'll still have Champions League. But certainly, '25 onwards is our ambition. The target range is SEK 1 billion to SEK 1.5 billion and it's getting to north of SEK 1 billion by 2025, is still our ambition, both from a EBITDA and a cash point of view, Nick.

[Nick Lyall, analyst]

Okay. And obviously, that includes the sort of hit you've just seen in the second quarter and your expectations going forward. So that's net of everything, is it?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Yes. Yes. That is absolute. I'm talking about absolute EBITDA and cash generation by 2025 being north of SEK 1 billion. Did I interpret your question properly, Nick?

[Nick Lyall, analyst]

No, no, that was spot on.

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Good. Okay. Thanks.

[Operator]

We'll take our next question from Siyi He with Citigroup.

[Siyi He, analyst]

I just have 2, please. The first question is on the cash flow generation charts you provided in your presentation. Just looking at this and I compare the chart you provided in Q1 for instance and it seems that the working capital recovery has pushed back a bit into Q4. Just wondering what's -- if you can explain what's the reason behind that and how should we think about the phasing of working capital for the second half.

And secondly, just wondering, if you can update us on the M&A side. And if there has been any discussion ongoing with your infrastructure sales. And also, it's interesting that you comment that there could be a lot of consolidation opportunities in TV and Media in Nordics in coming years. And you, in the past, said that TV is not your core business but then given the development in the TV, in the Media markets now, do you think that it could be an opportunity for you to actually be a consolidator of the -- in the TV business?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Why don't I take the M&A and then you can go back to cash flow, PC. So we continue the dialogue on rooftops, getting them ready, provided the valuation is right for a transaction in the first half of next year. And clearly, our priority at the moment from an M&A point of view is getting the Danish deal concluded and closed by the end of the year. So that's the big active ones.

In terms of TV/Media consolidation, don't worry, TV/Media is noncore. We will not be doubling down in TV/Media if consolidation opportunities arise, it will be much more a route to exit for us so that we can really focus on being the best aggregator of choice but no longer owning the content ourselves. And PC, if you want to pick up on the working capital phasing.

[Per Morland, executive]

Yes. On the phasing, it's more or less intact as we've shown in Q1. You're right, there is a shift between Q3 and Q4, that is mainly attributed to some phasing on the vendor financing rebound in the second half. So we expect slightly more in Q4 and slightly less in Q3 versus what we updated you on in the first quarter report.

[Operator]

And we will take our next question from Fredrik Lithell with Handelsbanken.

[Fredrik Lithell, analyst]

Many questions have been answered. I just wanted to then pick your brain a little bit on the 12 to 18 months behind us. You have been very active in changing prices on numerous of your services, both on consumer mobile and consumer fixed. Do you have any pockets still where you see you have upside room? Will you be as active in shifting prices upwards in the coming 12 months? Or are there any other details you would like to sort of discuss here for us?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

No. Clearly, with heightened inflation, we have kicked off a whole new approach to pricing discipline in our commercial strategies. And so the ambition would be, we'd be starting to do more pricing, again, starting in Q4 and into Q1 and we're planning for that already. The new pricing that's gone into the market recently, I said, the family SIM cards, there's a bit of mobile broadband pricing, there's some additional TV pricing and then some Fello pricing. But basically now, we're just looking at preparing for what kind of inflationary pressure do we expect to see next year. And therefore, what level of pricing do we need to be taking in Q4 and Q1 end of this year and into next year to offset that.

And then we've got the CPI linkage in most of our new B2B contracts now that will start to kick in and with some of the aspects of that in some of our wholesale contracts as well. So more of the same rather than anything majorly new, Fredrik. But I think we will -- we're learning all the time, how to be even more disciplined in our pricing. And one of the areas we're looking at, particularly here in Sweden is, alongside pricing what do we need to do on reducing the amount of campaigning or the scale of the discounting. So we're really looking at all of the ARPU levers, because we've learned quite substantially from our Finnish experience how to drive up ARPU even when you're not taking headline pricing by just being more disciplined from a promotional point of view.

[Fredrik Lithell, analyst]

Can I have a follow-up on that? And very good answer but a follow-up. I mean consumers have been quite calm in their actions. So they haven't really bought new smartphones in the same fashion they used to do. Is that -- the low activity in buying new smartphones, is that something that have benefited you in terms of churn, you think?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

Well, certainly, it has reduced switching in the market. And definitely, it's why we're seeing low churn, not just in Sweden though but also in Finland, where we're not the incumbent. So I think everybody is benefiting from a little bit of lower churn at the moment. And we are using it as an opportunity to really lock-in some of our most loyal Telia customers with family tariffs and other convergence benefits. So yes, it's good that churn has reduced. It just means we'll get lower handset sales and a little bit lower like insurance and value-added services that we hope to get a little bit of uplift once we move into the Christmas period. But churn is good.

[Operator]

And we will go next to Adam Fox-Rumley with HSBC.

[Adam Rumley, analyst]

I'll go straight -- a bit of a follow-up to that question and it's to do with the customer service resourcing that you discussed in the release. I hear your comments that NPS is now back on track and improving. But I do feel like this is something that comes in ebbs and flows over the years. Costs are important, obviously and you referred to future price changes, too. So to what extent are you comfortable with the current levels of your customer service staffing? Or should we think about this as being a resource that's essentially very short-term scalable and so quite adaptable to kind of your commercial activities?

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

In Sweden, it's very adaptable to our commercial activities. We work with a range of partners that allows us to dial up and dial down when needed. And there is still significant transformation for us to do on both the way our calls are handled, the number of calls that come in and the tools that we give our agents to be able to manage our customer service. So the -- what happened in the first kind of couple of quarters of this year is, we still had quite a backlog from all of the Viaplay dispute. And then straight on the back of the Viaplay dispute, we had a lot of pricing, all happening at the end of March, which meant that we had to sustain higher levels for a little bit longer than we were expecting.

But as we look into the balance of the year and we look at the availability required to handle future pricing changes and we're looking at some of the transformation enablers that we're putting into our call centers, then we expect call center staffing to come down in the second half. So we're quite comfortable with the levers we can pull and that we have better visibility now that we've reduced all of that backlog from Viaplay in pricing. And is one of the drivers of the Sweden EBITDA improving in the second half, that and lower energy costs and pricing momentum.

[Operator]

And there are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to CEO, Allison Kirkby, for closing remarks.

[Allison Kirkby, executive]

So thank you all. I wish you all a glorious summer and look forward to chatting to you again with our third quarter results in October, if I don't see you before. Have a great one.