Scandic Hotels Group AB

STO:SHOT

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Welcome to the Scandic Hotels Group Q3 report presentation. [Operator Instructions]

Now, I will hand the conference over to the speakers, CEO, Jens Mathiesen; and CFO, Par Christiansen. Please go ahead.

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

Thank you, [ speaker ], and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Scandic's Q3 presentation. My name is Jens Mathiesen. I'm the CEO of Scandic, and I will walk you through the quarter and all these recent announcements, together with Par Christiansen, our CFO.

As you have seen, we have a lot to share with you today, so let's dive in immediately on the highlights.

If you move to Page 2. All in all, we deliver a good quarter despite 1.5% less available rooms than in the same period last year. Revenues were in line with last year's record quarter with a good result. Excluding currency effects and less available rooms on a like-for-like basis, we actually improved sales. The overall demand was good and our largest markets, Sweden and Norway, performed well.

I though also want to highlight that the performance in the quarter was impacted by a weak summer in Gothenburg, as well as a challenging market in Finland.

We expect the market in Gothenburg to normalize with attractive events next year -- next summer, but it's more uncertain when the economy in Finland will start to recover. The economy in Finland is weak and demand is further impacted by the closed border with Russia. We have optimized the operations in Finland, and during this quarter, we took further steps with the reorganization. This will make us well positioned once the market turns again.

We continue to develop Scandic at a high pace and have taken several important steps forward. We have recently launched our new loyalty program and announced a strategic commercial partnership with Scandinavian Airlines. Together, these initiatives are strengthening our commercial capabilities and opportunities to drive revenues and guest satisfaction.

The portfolio keeps growing as well with more high quality hotels. As mentioned in the last earning calls, we signed 2 new Scandic Go hotels in Sweden and we now have also opened our second Scandic Go in Stockholm. The expansion in Germany continues and we also recently signed a new hotel in Stuttgart.

We have announced new financial targets for 2025 to 2027 along with initiatives for capital returns to shareholders. The last convertible bonds have been converted and with our strong financial position, we have lowered the net debt target to below 1x adjusted EBITDA from the previous targets of between 2 and 3x. Our targets for growth, profitability and dividend policy are all maintained.

In addition to ordinary dividends, we want to return at least SEK 1.2 billion to shareholders between '24 and '26. Scandic is in its best shape ever and we are also well-positioned to selectively invest in growth, while delivering good profitability with a more balanced risk profile.

At the same time, we are committed to creating strong shareholder value through capital distribution. Par will provide further comments on the rationale behind all our targets and capital allocation priorities.

Lastly, based on our current bookings, we expect a stable fourth quarter with demand and price levels in line with last year.

Please turn to Page 3, where you can see the quarterly adjusted EBITDA development since the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA reached SEK 1,077 million compared with SEK 1,173 million in the same quarter last year. Excluding one-offs, we delivered good result of SEK 1,092 million, slightly below the result in third quarter last year. This corresponded to a margin of 17.7% compared to 18.1% last year.

Lastly, I'm pleased that we continue to improve efficiency on hotel level with less working hours per sold room and that we maintain very good cost control.

Please turn to Page 4. Here, you can see the market occupancy in the third quarter of both this year and last year in the Nordic countries. Market demand was good during the summer with high occupancy levels in July and August across all the countries compared to the previous year. This was, however, impacted by the weak summer in Gothenburg, as mentioned. September remained stable in most markets, except in Finland where occupancy dropped by 4 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

Scandic's occupancy rate increased slightly from 71% in the third quarter last year to 71.4% in this quarter. Scandic's average occupancy levels in July and August were above the market average, but below market in September.

Please turn to Page 5. This is market data showing average room rates for Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark, indexed to the corresponding month in 2019. Excluding exchange rate effects, the market's average room rates continue to grow positively in the quarter with a year-on-year increase of around 3%. Scandic's average room rate increased by 2.5% compared with the same quarter last year. Scandic's room rate was slightly below the market average in July and August, but higher than the market in September.

Please turn to Page 6. Here, you can see the market RevPAR development indexed to the corresponding month in 2019. RevPAR developed positively compared with last year and it's above 2019 levels on most markets. Excluding exchange rate effects, the markets RevPAR in the quarter grew by around 4.5% year-on-year, while Scandic's RevPAR increased by approximately 3%.

The somewhat lower RevPAR growth compared to the market was mainly due to lower occupancy in September. Many competitors lowered the price following the summer, especially in Finland where we were yielding on higher prices to optimize efficiency.

So all in all, we are balancing the business well and based on bookings in October and ahead, we expect a stable fourth quarter.

Please turn to Page 7. During the quarter, we signed agreements for new Scandic Go in Gothenburg with 176 rooms and the new Scandic Go in Umea with 100 rooms both with planned openings in 2026. By the end of the quarter, we had 2,473 rooms and new rooms in the net pipeline, almost 1,000 more rooms than at the end of the third quarter last year.

All in all, I'm satisfied with how we are growing the portfolio, making sure that we are at high quality hotels, at good terms, in attractive locations.

Please turn to Page 8. As mentioned, we have now opened our second Scandic Go hotel in Stockholm. The hotel offers 234 rooms and it's located in the central district of Kungsholmen. This is our first hotel in Kungsholmen, a vibrant and centrally located neighborhood in Stockholm. The property has been fully renovated in collaboration with Pandox and is certified by the Nordic Swan Ecolabel.

We are pleased with the first few weeks since opening and are continuously fine-tuning the Scandic Go concept to ensure it is optimized for the target audience. There is great interest for our new brand in the economy segment, which makes up to almost 50% of the gross pipeline and I feel confident in our growth ambitions.

Please turn to Page 9. We have signed an agreement for a new hotel with 174 rooms in Stuttgart. Stuttgart is one of Germany's largest cities and will be a new destination for Scandic. We are planning to open in Q4 2025, so actually end next year, following a renovation in collaboration with AXA Investment Managers. The Stuttgart market has seen very steady growth due to increased tourism and demand from business travelers and we see opportunities for further expansion in the city. Following this addition, we will operate 8 hotels with a total of 2,600 rooms in Germany.

Please turn to Page 10. This quarter, we launched a new loyalty program, which has been completely redesigned to offer more personalized, digital and rewarding member experiences. Scandic Friends, the largest loyalty program in the Nordic hotel industry, currently has 3 million members and our goal is to double that number by 2030.

In 2023, Scandic Friends accounted for about 38% of all room nights sold and the new program is expected to drive even more member bookings and increased overall revenue. We now have a strong platform in place to enhance the member experiences and have established a foundation to further develop the program. We also plan to introduce exciting new partnerships, creating an ecosystem that we can continue to expand over time.

Please turn to Page 11. A great example of our partnership strategy is the recently announced commercial partnership with Scandinavian Airlines. By joining forces with SAS, we are creating a unique offering for more than 11 million members across 2 of the leading loyalty programs in the hospitality industry. Together, we will provide competitive and attractive benefits, delivering more seamless and personalized travel and hotel experiences.

The first step in this partnership will be the enabling -- status matching between Scandic Friends and SAS EuroBonus, along with clear and easy point conversions between the 2 programs. These benefits will be launched in the first quarter of 2025, with more to follow later in the year. This marks the beginning of something very exciting and it aligns perfectly with our goals of continuing to create value for Scandic Friends members through our newly enhanced program.

With that, I would like to hand over to Par. Please turn to Page 13.

[Par Christiansen, executive]

Thank you, Jens, and good morning, everyone. We delivered a solid financial performance with revenues more or less in line with last year's record quarter and a good result.

Net sales reached SEK 6.2 billion, excluding negative exchange effects of SEK 159 million. With that, we improved sales somewhat. We had around 1.5% less available rooms in the quarter compared to last year and like-for-like growth was 2.6%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at [ SEK 1.77 ] million, compared to [ SEK 1,177 million ] corresponding period last year.

Excluding one-offs, adjusted EBITDA was almost in the line with last year's performance with a good margin of 17.7% compared to 18.1% in the third quarter last year. The slightly lower result was mainly due exchange rate effects and phased out rent rebates in Germany. Sweden and Norway continued to perform well with an overall healthy market situation. Sweden delivers a good quarter with net sales and margins in line with last year, however, impacted by the weak summer in Gothenburg, where also capacity has increased.

Currency effect had the largest impact on Norway in this quarter. Excluding almost SEK 100 million in FX effect, we improved net sales somewhat. Like-for-like Norway grew with almost 6%. The result in Norway was also impacted by one-offs related to additional cost of SEK 15 million from previous year's housing of refugees. I also want to highlight that we had positive one-offs of SEK 11 million in the same quarter last year in Norway. Excluding one-offs, Norway delivers a good result with a margin over 20%.

Finland had a solid market during the summer, driven by tourism, but was followed by a weak September where business is supposed to start. The market has been challenging for some time. This is no news to us. And over the past year, we have been adjusting the operations to ensure healthy margins and a strong position once the market turns and demand comes back.

During the quarter, we made further adjustments to the organization, which had an impact of SEK 18 million related to restructuring costs. All in all, Finland delivers a solid quarter.

Denmark had a good quarter, however, impacted by less available rooms compared to -- with last year as we exited 3 hotels to optimize the portfolio. I want to remind you that in Q4 last year, we had one-offs negatively impacting the adjusted EBITDA of SEK 18 million.

Please turn to Page 14. The page shows operational and free cash flow per quarter on -- and on a rolling 12-month basis. Operational cash flow was SEK 1.9 billion on a rolling 12-month basis. We had increased the investment pace and free cash flow on rolling 12-month basis was SEK 940 million. Year-to-date, maintenance investments increased to SEK 476 million compared to SEK 251 million last year. This was mainly related to ongoing renovations at hotels in Stockholm, Copenhagen and Gothenburg.

With the current investment pace, we expect maintenance CapEx in relation to net sales to be around 3% for the full year. This is a lower end of our guiding of 3% to 4% maintenance CapEx per year. Year-to-date, expansion CapEx increased SEK 159 million compared to only SEK 25 million last year.

Additionally, we also had higher CapEx for IT, which reflects the overall higher activity level with digitalization and commercial capabilities.

Working capital was impacted by repayment of variable rent debts from last year of SEK 435 million, and we do not expect any more rent debts to be paid during 2024. The variable rent debts are now normalizing from the pandemic, which means that next year we won't be impacted as much by repayments as previous years.

Please turn to Page 15. This is the net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA on a rolling 12-month basis. Scandic is almost debt-free position with only SEK 36 million in net debt at the end of the quarter, resulting in a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0. We have now also paid off the debt of SEK 631 million related to deferred VAT payments and social contributions in Sweden following the pandemic. The original payment plan of the tax debt was scheduled to run until April 2027.

Backed by our strong financial position and as we are now launching initiatives to return capital to our shareholders, we saw it as a natural step to also repay the debt to the government.

Lastly, we want just to highlight, the last convertibles were converted during the quarter.

Now, please turn to Page 16 on our update on recently announced financial targets. Looking at Page 16, the Board has decided on new targets for '25 to '27. The targets are based on our solid balance sheet, our strong Nordic position and a well systematically growing presence in Germany. In our view, this make us well positioned for growth selectively with good profitability and a balanced risk profile. The target for net debt in relation to adjusted EBITDA is reduced from 2 to 3 below -- to below 1. With our targets for growth, dividends are maintained and clarified.

[ Under ] different ownership structures and since the IPO, our approach to debt has varied. Before the pandemic, our net debt in relation to adjusted EBITDA was around 2 in 2018 and 1.7 in 2019. Today, Scandic is in a significantly stronger position. We generate higher cash flow. We are almost debt-free and we have a long-term and flexible financing framework in place. Therefore, we can confidently reduce our debt target while maintaining strong financial flexibility and selected growing forward. And to be clear, a lot of designments that will be done during the '25 to '27 period, will not create debt during this period. It will occur later.

Regarding growth and margin targets, I want to highlight that we now consider these as annual baselines over a period of time, whereas previously, there were ambitions on achieve -- as average over a period of time. In both the years leading up to and following the pandemic, Scandic has continuously delivered stable revenue growth and gradually improved margins.

Despite significantly cost pressures for the last years, Scandic has continued to deliver improved and good margins. For example, adjusted for one-offs effects, we achieved a margin of 11.1% in 2022 and 11.4% in 2023. This demonstrates that we have become more efficient and profitable. And our investments in new hotels, digitization and commercial are expected to further support profitability over time.

We believe that we have found a good balance in the midterm targets and that they reflect a positive outlook on future as well as we continue to achieve solid growth and good profitability at a balanced risk level.

At the same time, we are committed to reinstating our dividend policy. In combination with lower financing cost and share buybacks, these are activities that are positive for the EPS growth and reflect our priority to increase long-term shareholder value.

Please turn to Page 17. I want to give some comments on the buyback program and the proposal for extra dividends. In addition to reinstating regular dividends, our intention is to return at least SEK 1.5 billion to shareholders between 2024 and 2026.

As a first step, we launched a share buyback program of around SEK 300 million in December this year. This program is intended to run until May 2025. The purpose of the buyback is to optimize our capital structure and thereby enhancing shareholder value. And we plan to propose to the 2025 AGM that the repurchasing shares to be canceled.

The buyback program will be carried out through a existing authorization to repurchase up to 10% of Scandic shares until 2025 AGM. We will, in the coming days, also invite to a extraordinary general meeting to decide on additional dividends of around SEK 550 million. The EGM along with the proposed payment will take place in December 2024.

Furthermore, we plan to distribute at least another SEK 350 million either through additional share buybacks or extra dividends. Our capital allocation decisions are always guided by what we deliver to the greatest long-term value for our shareholders at a given time.

Going forward, we will, therefore, intend to use share buybacks and dividends as a tool for optimizing our capital structure and to create shareholder value.

With that, I would like to hand back to Jens for closing remarks before we move on to the Q&A.

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

Thanks, Par. Some concluding remarks. For the rest of the year, we expect the hotel market in the Nordics to remain stable. We are now entering a seasonally calmer period. And based on current bookings, we anticipate a stable fourth quarter with occupancy levels and room rates in line with last year. We expect the Nordic hotel market to gradually improve over the next year with positive RevPAR growth driven by a better macroeconomic outlook.

Overall, we delivered a very good result and I'm pleased with the progress we are making in building a stronger Scandic. Over the past few years, we have transformed Scandic into a highly efficient operator, while also enhancing our commercial capabilities.

With the Oracle Hospitality Cloud now implemented, the launch of our new loyalty program and the upcoming release of new web and app, we are establishing a robust commercial platform that will drive revenue and more profitable growth in the years ahead.

Additionally, our strong cash flow and solid financial position enable us to invest in our portfolio and expand our pipeline. So in summary, Scandic is in the best shape ever.

Please turn to Page 21. Before we move on to the Q&A, I'd like to take this opportunity to announce that we will be hosting a Capital Markets Day on February 19th next year at Scandic Continental in Stockholm, in connection with our year-end report. Since our last CMD, we have taken Scandic to new heights, and it's now time to focus on the next phase of our journey with a vision for 2030. Please mark your calendars. Formal invitations will be sent out in November.

With that, I'd like to thank you -- all of you to join this presentation, and looking forward to open the floor for the Q&A. So over to you, operator.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Jamie Rollo from Morgan Stanley.

[Jamie Rollo, analyst]

Three, please. Just starting with RevPAR in the third quarter. As you say, it was about 150 basis points sort of weaker than the market, I think a bit more than that in Sweden. Could you just elaborate a bit more on why that was? I think you talked a bit about September and Finland. And also your comment about flat RevPAR in Q4, is that constant currency or actual? So is that really like minus 2% on a sort of headline basis, including currency?

Second question on margins. It sounds like Q4 margins will be down year-on-year given the RevPAR comment. But is there any early indication on 2025 cost inflation and whether year-on-year margins might be up, flat or down compared to this year?

And then finally, just on the cash return. The SEK 300 million buyback, I think it was a bit of a surprise today that, that's perhaps a bit on the modest side. It only offsets about 15% of the convertible dilution. Is that something to do with tax choices with your shareholders? Or is that a company view on the valuation of the share price? And when do we hear about the remaining SEK 350 million cash return? And in what form could that be?

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

Thank you, Jamie. All in all, good reflections and questions that we will elaborate a bit on here. First of all, I think for the RevPAR, we have since long, and as you know, been building a Scandic that is better than ever in order to really capitalize on the growth opportunities going forward. We have invested quite a lot this year. I don't want to say that we see this as like a middle year between some other years, but it has been a year where we are making a lot of changes in the organization. So we have definitely had a lot of focus on that and secure that we do not just run for the extra occupancy level at high costs.

So for us, it has been to really transform the Scandic operation into a better than ever and from that position of strength, then build a stronger company. So -- And -- so that's kind of part of the reason. If you look at the RevPAR growth in the quarter, yes, it was impacted negatively. We have a very large position in Gothenburg. We have a huge benefit of all these events last -- and concerts last year in the summer, which was 0 this year. So of course, if you look at the whole city of Gothenburg, average room rate were down approximately SEK 400 in the month of July. So of course, that had an impact also on Scandic.

On the other hand, Stockholm came out much stronger and we came out of the quarter as a whole with positive result, even for the whole Swedish market. There are some challenges in Finland, but we have been aware of them quite long. So that's why we also, in Finland, where we -- the whole market and we are impacted. We actually took some decisions to even cut more cost and reorganize the organization, and for that, also build a stronger platform going forward. So we are very satisfied with that progress.

When we talk about your questions into '25 and how we expect that going forward, I think we -- when you look at the RevPAR expectations, we see a very stable economy situation with a lower inflation all over. That also means lower pressure on cost increases. And for that reason, we see that now we can benefit from all our initiatives on the commercial side and drive both top line and also take more market shares in the years to come. That is our clear ambition. Then we have this cash return. And Par, maybe you can elaborate a bit on that?

[Par Christiansen, executive]

Yes. And if I should build on your outlook for 2025, I think we -- on the rent price index, we are looking at some 2%, ND is also around 2% when we look at it. Of course, the wages could be between 2% and 3%. And it's a year 2025 with new negotiations with the unions. So that is, of course, a debate before we will see that.

But if you look at the 2025 outlook, we will have a AGM in May 2025, where we can decide on a normal dividend. And then on top of that, we have the SEK 350 million that we are talking about in the report, that could be either buybacks or extra dividend, that's a framework we look at right now. And of course, dependent on the situation, it will be up to the Board to propose what to spend it on.

And there is, of course, looking at dividends versus buybacks. There are, of course, different perspectives from different owners. So I think when the Board has proposed this mix, there's a consideration on different owners' perspectives and different owners' preferences to land in something that is balanced. [ I don't know ] if it covered all your questions, but, otherwise, let us know.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Raymond Ke from Nordea.

[Raymond Ke, analyst]

A couple of questions from me. I'll take them one at a time, I hope that's okay. Starting with the margin target of 11%, you're setting that as a floor rather than over a cycle. Is it right to interpret this as you're seeing margin upside from here on? And what do you see that gives you confidence that you can uphold this from here on?

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

Yes. But -- we can try to answer a bit together, Par and I. But I think we have seen now for the -- like Par mentioned in the call here that we have been above the 11% and we feel confident that we can put this as a floor. Before we had like a bit of an unclear target, I would say, that we should have 11% over a cycle. What is the cycle? You can always question. With this, this gives us a clear indication for the [ margin ]. We send a clear signal that we think we should achieve as a minimum the 11%.

But of course, we have high ambitions. This doesn't make us -- it doesn't stay with the 11%. Of course, if we can do 11.5% or 12% going forward, we will definitely strive for that. But we -- and then over time, we can always change. But right now, we want to have like a very clear signal to the market that how stable we actually believe this industry is.

[Par Christiansen, executive]

Yes. And you can build on that to say that also the margin target you can see in combination with the growth target. So, of course, we want to grow and also have decent margins, but we could, of course, suffer in one of them to achieve more. But I think this is the balance between the margin and the growth target that we have looked at.

[Raymond Ke, analyst]

Got it. And you're right that investments in the pipeline are expected to total SEK 802 million, where SEK 85 million have already been made. In terms of timing ahead of launch, how many months or maybe even years like in general, ahead of each launch should one think you generally start putting money into an expansion? And how does that sort of ramp-up cycle look like, if you know what I mean?

[Par Christiansen, executive]

Yes. It's a very good question. I think one that we picked up some -- discussing also our debt target. And I think you should see during the period here with '25 to '27, if you sign a lease, I mean, the debt will not occur the day after. It will take 1 to 2 years, dependent on what type of hotel. Scandic Go will probably be much quicker, maybe 1 to 1.5 years and a [ bigger ] Scandic 1.5 to 2 years from signing, dependent on that.

And of course, we can also have takeovers when they have in [ Nuremberg ] where we have a quicker takeover. But you can see that when -- we're building up a portfolio now that the debt will follow with quite a lag. And therefore, we are quite confident also with having a 1x net debt target and also growing the pipeline as we want.

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

And we are also -- Raymond, we are definitely good at steering this part of the CapEx, you can say. We know when we sign, to Par's point, we even have a few projects where we sign now and we open in '28 and then we might have the CapEx investments in the end of '27 and into '28 and not before.

So with that, we feel it's very balanced and we can control this. On top we also steer all the investments in current portfolio, where we have a very good way of steering it, meaning also that if we see by the end of the year that we need to save a bit because we want to protect the cash, then we can steer it. If we want to increase it a bit, we can do that. So I think we have a very good model to handle this.

[Raymond Ke, analyst]

Excellent. Just final one. In terms of event schedule, if you compare this year to sort of the next year, how do they compare? And if you just could give us a quick comment there?

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

Yes. We have a -- we're looking very much forward because next year looks much better. And then we have a lot of -- I don't know if it's a lot, but we have quite some concerts [ ticking ] in, especially in Gothenburg, which is very important for the Gothenburg region. And as you recall, last year was a very strong year, maybe extraordinary strong with a lot of concerts. I think we had some 14 concerts in the summer last year.

And -- But right now, it will be picking up well and concerts are picking in for next year. So we expect that this year's situation in Gothenburg was a bit of a one-off and definitely next year should be much better.

Rest of the market has been stable and we had a few concerts this summer in Stockholm that was supporting the result and that's part of the reason why Stockholm came out even better than last year. And Stockholm is -- we are definitely the market leader here with 30 hotels in the Stockholm region. So good for us.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Karl-Johan Bonnevier from DNB Markets.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

First of all, congratulations to clearing the table for all the legacy thing from the pandemic. Must be good to be through that part of the cycle. And looking at just one -- I probably missed it. Jamie asked you the question about the Q4 RevPAR guidance you're giving. Was that in local currency? Or was that in Swedish krona, just to -- if I missed the answer to that?

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

That was in local currency.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

Local currency. And turning to the financial targets. You already elaborated very nicely on your ambition, maybe higher on the profitability target and tying it to the growth target. On the growth target, could you elaborate a little how you see that organic growth being modeled in the way of room growth and RevPAR ambitions to drive the market to get to that?

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

Yes. We can start with that, and thank you. I think as you, Karl-Johan, that we -- it's very nice that we have now a very clean balance sheet. We have talked about this for years now with the convertible bond now fully handled and we also have a 0 debt situation, which brings us in a very strong position. So we like that position as well, I assure you. But really looking at what you were saying, we think when looking forward -- and first of all, we think Q4 as a small quarter looks very stable and we expect it to come in as a stable result.

And right now it looks to be both occupancy and prices around the same level as last year. And we are in a very good control of the cost level. So I think we will have a decent quarter for that, even though it's a smaller one.

But going forward, we have good expectations. Par was elaborating a bit on the overall market expectations when it comes to GDP growth. We also think that we are in a position now with all the commercial initiatives where we will drive extra top line. There will be a lot of initiatives which we have said during the year will start to be positively hitting us in 2025 especially when we, in Q1, will announce the launch exactly timing-wise on the new web and app. That will give us a lot of new capabilities to do a lot of ancillary sales and other stuff like that.

We also launched in Q1 the new partnership with SAS. And there will be a lot of partnering campaigning of that, also motivating people to travel even more. So I think we are comfortable with a lot of our initiatives, which will drive extra top line on top of the GDP. And then, of course, we will add new rooms to the market and that should support the growth as well.

[Par Christiansen, executive]

Yes. And also, if you look at our guest profile, we're still a little bit missing the European and intercontinental guests. So I think we have some sort of expectation also of them returning and building occupancy levels for us. So yes, many factors.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

But you see -- to sum it up, the commercial initiatives should get you back to where you grow RevPAR quicker than the market. Is that a good base assumption?

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

Yes, we have a clear plan and intention to take market shares in the years to come.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

Excellent. And looking at the capital structure, as you say, you are now net cash. And when I try to model those extra payouts getting back to ordinary dividends, it seems like you are basically going to be remaining close to net cash, or maybe I have too good of a free cash flow generation profile for you. But if you are not singling that, are you basically telling us that you are -- we should expect you to drive this company at the net cash position or close to net cash position going forward?

[Par Christiansen, executive]

I think you should see it that we will be able to drive our growth plans as we have discussed in terms of both the expansion in terms of hotels and rooms, but also the technical and IT digitalization investments within the framework now of maximum 1x EBITDA. So I think we have a lot of headroom there. And we think by the end of 2027, we might discuss whether we have such a growing profile that we need to look at that. But I think we have a lot of headroom. So I will not say that we will be debt-free, but we will be in the guidance that we have now with the new financial targets.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

And just to elaborate, how did you come up with the target of below 1, so to say? For me, it feels like you are maybe not driving the company in an efficient capital allocation policy being that kind of conservative?

[Par Christiansen, executive]

Maybe hard to comment on your comment, but I think we are looking at our business plan and we can see that we -- whatever we want to achieve is in line with that framework. And we are not mentioning an M&A and other things. And of course, things could come outside this thing. And -- But I think it's quite -- with the starting position we have, it's quite logical for us to be in this framework. And the 2x, 3 target was from 2016 when the IPO was done with completely different ownership structure. So I think it's probably a double adjustment in this one that -- we haven't adjusted for quite a long, but also that we -- with this position, it's very hard to say that we should end up in to be logical.

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

But I think -- I also want to add to that, that it's very important for us to have enough headroom within this framework. And we feel that we have enough headroom both to deliver what the market expects when it comes to dividends and buybacks, but it's also important that we have enough headroom to cover our, let's say, growing company and our expectation for growing this pipeline. And you mentioned yourself, we might, in certain periods be on the low end of the debt here and that gives us a good headroom also to add to that.

If we see that, let's say, there will be opportunities in the market to acquire another company, then we take that as a separate thing and that -- we do not leave that out. Of course, if something pops up which we feel is good, then we look at it. But right now, we feel very comfortable in adding hotels in the way we do right now, and which is actually also increasing the speed.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

Excellent.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

[Jens Mathiesen, executive]

Thank you very much, and thank you, all, for dialing in this morning. Thank you for your good questions. We look forward to the continuing good conversations with all of you. If you have any further questions, just reach out. And if not, looking forward to speak to you again, and we wish you all a great day.