Powercell Sweden AB (publ)

STO:PCELL

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Richard Berkling, executive]

A warm welcome to PowerCell Group Quarter 4 Presentation and Full Year Presentation. With me, Richard Berkling, CEO, PowerCell and...

[Torbjorn Gustafsson, executive]

Torbjorn Gustafsson, CFO.

[Richard Berkling, executive]

Hopefully, we're now familiar faces since we've been doing this for a number of times. We're here to present the quarter that has been quite interesting and also give you an outlook on 2024 and market conditions going forward.Short about PowerCell, we claim to be a leader in hydrogen electric solutions, having leading technology and a product offering that is fairly strong in the market, which we also see now in the numbers.Fairly experienced entity in hydrogen electrification with over now actually 28 years of innovation in this field. Strong technology portfolio were validated not only by ourselves, but the industrial partner Robert Bosch. Our products are unique in this high-power density, which means that they're quite efficient in their applications. And what we do is that we provide electricity with no emission other than water. So we are an unusually seasoned player in an emerging market, and that is something that we pride ourselves in, and also I think it's a very competitive advantage in the market that is now growing.151 employees, headquartered in Gothenburg with a presence both in Sweden, Norway, Germany and the U.S. Our growth and the value, I think, is based on a very strong technology and IP portfolio, but also now a product portfolio and customer portfolio that we will elaborate on in this presentation.Our industrial footprint is not just the internal of PowerCell, it's also from the manufacturing partnership and global partnership with Robert Bosch [ GmbH ] News in the market. We see now a commercial market growing. We are moving away from the earlier project phases and product sales. That was the characteristic of the previous market, and now it's more a commercial market growth with OEM customers, which means slightly new requirements, but also new opportunities.We see more demand for larger orders and long-term contracts, but also slightly longer integration times because we now enter into a phase where technology is integrated into a commercial offering rather than just selling product sales.Much more sustainable from a growth perspective and also industrial perspective of PowerCell, but it's a different condition, it's also higher requirements because now we enter into a phase where products needs to provide value over a life cycle, not just initial value as a tech exploration solution but as a commercial entity, which we think is a very interesting time in market because it's mature in the market.And we have prepared ourselves quite well for this for the last 3 years, investing into our product offering, investing into our internal abilities and capabilities both in manufacturing but also the whole supply chain and product offering, investing into the productivity and internal efficiency together with both Bosch and PowerCell internally, and then, of course, the industrial stability and capacity as we talked about. So we now have a manufacturing footprint that could support PowerCell in the growth journey ahead.But most, I would say, is the product offering and the ability to provide value for our customers, which is why we have a strong growth in all different segments that we're active in. And we see that what we managed to do now, which is a difference from the previous years is that we have a strong growth, a sustainable growth, but we also have a strong operational leverage. We have a leverage on every sold new krone or euro is rippling down to bottom line and improving the operational performance, which Torbjorn will talk more about.We have been on a growth journey for a number of years. In quarter 4, we saw that there were slightly more rough conditions. And it is a softer market because of consequences to the financial market where we see investment, the cost of investment is cost of funding is starting to affect part of the customer portfolio. But this is where it's so important that we see the OEM customers come [Audio Gap] market demand rather than just tech exploration and product sales.We have an industrialized product portfolio, and industrialized production in place. During quarter 4, we started [ serial ] deliveries from Bosch into our factory, building the fuel cell systems. For a couple of years now, we have had a concept that we call industrialized innovation that we think is really competitive offering to the market, where we base our offering to the market on the industrials core component of PowerCell, but then we make adaptations to the specific OEM needs for different applications and different installations, which means that we are integrating our technology into the offering of different customers.For instance, ZeroAvia in aviation and Hitachi when it comes to power generation. Hitachi introduced their high-flex hydrogen generator in quarter 4. Public introduction here at PowerCell in Gothenburg, which is a really important OEM customer for us and a market channel that will drive growth going forward.We have been building a first-mover advantage by being active in many different segments, building application knowledge, which means that in an innovation market like the energy transition is, it's not just about having the best technology, but making sure that your technology is integrated in a way that it creates value at the customer operational process. So this is where our application knowledge is equally important to our IP portfolio, I would say.We see the growth is coming from commercial order rather than the project orders that we have in the past, which is encouraging because it gives us a more sustainable product portfolio and order stock. And we see that we are now ramping up production for serial deliveries with Bosch as a supplier, which gives us a much stronger footprint than just the internal capabilities of PowerCell, even though we're proud of our industrialization and production capability. But standing on the foundation of an industrial giant as Bosch is giving us much more stability than we would have as an independent company.We are supported by really strong market drivers, initiatives, I would say, globally. IRA in the U.S., EU Green deal is starting to have an effect on customer investments in this area, but also the whole emerging value chain that is supporting our industry to accelerate. We also see a number of companies accelerating their commitments towards zero emissions, especially with 2030 as a deadline. And what is interesting to see is that 2030 is actually just around the quarter. Since we are working with the industrial processes, the integration into new technology needs to happen long before 2030, if it's going to have an effect there. So we see that the underlying growth and underlying market is growing from this commitment towards 2030.And also hydrogen has now for the last couple of years, being recognized as being a central part of the emerging energy system and energy transition. So the whole energy is maturing, although it is still with some challenges, having access to green hydrogen and the trend over 2023 was to combine green hydrogen with different sources of hydrogen from ammonia, methanol, making sure that we have more access to hydrogen, although not being the perfect solution of green hydrogen that is complete, as you know [ true ] but good enough solutions, making sure that the whole value chain is starting to accelerate.Looking at the key events in quarter 4 was in increased product sales, which we are happy to report. We are continuing to see a strong gross margin, Torbjorn will elaborate more on that, slightly down, but still on a very good sustainable level.A very good sales development in Aviation and Marine segment with the introduction of high-flex from Hitachi in quarter 4. We also now see the first OEM customer in power generation, which is quite encouraging. But then, of course, quarter 4 was affected by the relisting of the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, which is something we're quite proud of because we did it in record time and passing with flying colors.But of course, we are a small company. So it affected us internally to some extent, burdening the ongoing operation. So now we're out of the woods on that one and can focus even more on developing the company and business going forward.In quarter 4, we also had important deliveries or strong deliveries to important projects, both ZeroAvia and the Marine integration project we've seen towards [ Toyota ] accelerated in quarter 4, and we see that going into quarter - to 2024 as well. So we are entering into more deployment of technology and products into commercial applications, which is a very important step for us to becoming a mature player in an emerging market. So Torbjorn more about the numbers.

[Torbjorn Gustafsson, executive]

Thank you, Richard. And on the sales side, we can see that for the fourth quarter, we were growing with 25% versus last year and for the full year, with 27%. And as you can see on the graph there on the bars, quarter 4 is an important quarter for us. It stands for about 40% of our full year sales, and that's in line with what we saw last year as well and also in 2021. So fourth quarter, quite visible on this slide is an important quarter, and a lot have happened.We have also royalty increased to SEK 19 million in 2023 versus SEK 15 million in 2022. And as Richard was mentioning on what focus areas in fourth quarter, it was a lot about the projects towards Aviation and also in the Marine that really is being seen here in the fourth quarter sales.And coming to gross margin. We are at good gross margin. It's going down a little bit versus last year. And looking at the fourth quarter, we had a margin of about 37% versus 57% last year. And we will see those kind of variations, maybe not to that extent, but there will be variations since we are affected still a small company, and we will be affected depending on the product mix and so on, but it will even out over time as we are growing. And we will safeguard the gross margin over time. And as we can see here, still being on 40% on the full year. And that's really something that we are safeguarding in the sense that we want to scale up with good gross margin going forward.This is also where we see a benefit of optimizing with different revenue streams, not just being a product company, but also developing engineering services, sales of aftermarket service, et cetera, the royalty from Bosch. That mix of product revenues is giving us a balance to mitigate if certain areas of the market is changing. And when we talk about the future in 2024, where we see where the product sales might be slightly delayed because of integration and funding at customer sites, we have different revenue streams to accelerate. So it gives us a balance in both in top line but also on gross margin. And it should be highlighted just as sort of the last bullet there on gross margin that we did a change our presentation of costs that impacted the 2.8 percentage points.Operating leverage. I think you were on to this, Richard, earlier on and just a highlight in numbers and in a graph that we are then at 61% when we talk about OpEx in relation to net sales. And I should say, in this context, OpEx will also include other operating income and other operating costs. And in other operating income, that's where we also see the funding on from EU projects. And those are in the fourth quarter, it's SEK 30 million versus SEK 5 million last year - for the full year. And then we are down from 7 [Audio Gap] 27% last year in December to then 61% right now. And this is also being done, although we are increasing with 35% here. So we're building capabilities and we are continuing to leverage on those as we're go forward.And one bullet point here as well is regarding capitalization of product development expenditures. And for the fourth quarter, we have SEK 6.8 million, and that's also sort of a key item in terms of PowerCell maturing into going from research-driven to development driven, where we also are now looking at the next generation of products that we already have, and that's a majority item in that.And then last slide on the financial side. Looking at the cash flow. We had a cash flow in the fourth quarter of SEK 48.7 million negative, and for the full year, SEK 95.6 million. And this was a quite big effects from this is really a cut-off effect in timings of payments between 2023 and 2024 that affected quite a lot. And then as you can see, there is also a capitalization than being seen here as we haven't seen the years before. So those are effects on the cash flow.And then handing over to Richard for the final slides.

[Richard Berkling, executive]

Yes. One comment also on the financial performance is that our EBIT is improving from negative 30 to 21. Although we have a number of nonrecurring costs affecting the result in quarter 4. So we see that we are on a trajectory towards breakeven when we have a growth. And this is -- the ability to leverage growth is extremely important for a company like PowerCell because as Torbjorn was saying, we are investing heavily into the next generation of technology into the product portfolio, as well as the current infrastructure and supply chain.With that said, we're still making a leverage on the revenue increase and growth, which is important to us because we want to make sure that we can show the industry that we are a sustainable company from a financial perspective.So looking at [ MD proposition ]. We are now active in 5 different segments on road together with Bosch, where we see the royalty revenue increasing. We also know that Bosch publicly informed that they are in starter production in quarter 3, quarter 4 last year with serial deliveries to a number of disclosed customers. So we see that segment is maturing and starting to pick up.We are approaching 4 segments by ourselves, Aviation Marine are the drivers in our growth at the moment where we have in aviation, somewhere around 18 projects with customers, and we have the first commercial orders. We are also experiencing interest in the next-generation stack technology with OEMs. So there is a strong demand in Aviation segment.Marine, we also have a number of commercial orders that we have reported, and we are now deploying technology into that segment where we put product into commercial use. Power generation has been a segment that we had expected more growth from in the past. But with the introduction together with Hitachi in quarter 4, we now see a potential to grow that area. And we think that, that is an area that we will see a lot of interest in 2024 and 2025, where hydrogen fuel cell generator is a very good example of balancing the grid in areas where you don't have grid access or you need to balance the grid stability.We see demand for hydrogen fuel cell generators to power electric vehicles in areas where you don't have grid access, for instance, construction equipment, et cetera. And we will have a joint -- demonstrated together with Hitachi, [ Skanska ] and other Swedish OEMs at the [Habra ] Gothenburg, week 10, showcasing this example where you use the hydrogen generator to power commercial vehicles that are electrical. So all in all, very interesting growth in all areas, but they are growing at different speeds depending on specific market conditions.So what we see now is that we are accelerating our growth journey. We see an accelerated transition towards emission-free energy solutions, strong interest globally, I would say, with some regional differences where you see a lot of investment both in Asia and the U.S. We are expanding into the U.S. market with our own subsidiary and a local entity, local presence - a really good technology offering is important, but equal to having good [Audio Gap] technology is the application knowledge, knowing how to deploy these technologies that works throughout the complete life cycle and not just good technology [Audio Gap] the fact that we are starting to [Audio Gap] this is now starting to become a mature market.An industry can live on project sales and governmental funding only so long. Eventually, you need to start prove yourself and create value in a commercial application and PowerCell and the industry is at that point at the moment. So scaling our production with a strong industrial partner like Bosch is the best way of mitigating both the risk and acting on the opportunity to this market. Upcoming reports is has been presented before. We have the interim quarter 1 report in April, 25 of April, in conjunction with the general meeting. And then you can see the following report after this.So with this, we now open up for questions from the audience.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Henrik Alveskog from Redeye AB. Please go ahead.

[Henrik Alveskog, analyst]

Okay. Hello. Thanks for taking my question. Yes. First off, I read in the report that -- well, you mentioned that the market overall conditions are a bit softer now. And therefore, you accelerate your focus on profitability and cash flow. I'm just trying to -- if you could give us some color on how this will be different from previously when it comes to, well, mainly your focus on profitability, I mean, as you mentioned, you have very good leverage and the best way of reaching good profitability is to continue to grow. So how should we understand this?

[Richard Berkling, executive]

I think it's the combination and structure of different product offerings and the product mix, you optimizing one way if you see that the short-term market demand is just product offerings and product sales. You can optimize your operations slightly differently. If you think that the perhaps short-term market demand on products is a bit softer. But then instead you optimize on having a lot of OEM development because then you build short term. Now we hear ourselves. Henrik, can you mute? Thank you.

[Henrik Alveskog, analyst]

You want [ me to mute ] I'm not sure if I can right now.

[Richard Berkling, executive]

Okay. Okay. No, but then in the market conditions, as we see in 2024, we think that the best way of leveraging the position of PowerCell is to work with the OEM customers, making sure short term revenues from the engineering services, providing the adaptation and integration of our technology into their product offering, which builds both short-term revenues, but also then a product portfolio and order book that is strong long term.So it is a different market condition. But this is what we see at the moment. We also see that market condition is changing rapidly. So being agile and nimble in that way is important. And not just having product capacity as your only competitive advantage that we have together with Bosch, but also have a strategic ability to adapt and act on short term opportunities, while building a long term pipeline. So that is, I would say the difference.But we also do that in order to safeguard our journey towards breakeven because that is really important short-term goal for us. And then, of course, defending our customers.

[Henrik Alveskog, analyst]

Okay. Thanks. Could I have - to ask you another question?

[Richard Berkling, executive]

Yes.

[Henrik Alveskog, analyst]

Okay. Just regarding your current order backlog, give us some more insight into that? And maybe how much is related to business [Audio Gap]

[Richard Berkling, executive]

Boring answer is that if we haven't announced we are looking into how do we communicate forecast and order backlog, but we have not added that to this presentation yet. We will evaluate that going forward in 2024.We understand that we need to give you more guidance, forward looking guidance, and we will do that throughout this year. But since this one is the quarter 4 report for last year, we are remaining with the existing structure of information at the moment.But we enter into 2024 with a strong growth income we've ever had, which we should because it's a growing market. But the exact characteristic and structure of it is something that we need to come back to.

[Henrik Alveskog, analyst]

All right, thank you.

[Richard Berkling, executive]

It's a boring answer, I understand, but we will improve on that area.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]

[Richard Berkling, executive]

While we wait on more questions from online, we have questions issued here in the feed. From Roland, we have a question, what is in progress with ZeroAvia and the large order and certification process?The certification testing is ongoing. ZeroAvia completed the first phase of that certification testing in quarter 3, conducting 10 test flights, passing with flying colors, no pun intended, and they're now entering into the next phase. So they are on track. If they are going to make the commercial interaction in 2025 or 2026 is something that ZeroAvia need to communicate. But we are seeing good activity in the area and that we're supporting them in a good way. So we have good -- I would say good progress in that area.Now we have a question from Nicolas about OEM customers.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Sofia von Oelreich from Pareto Securities. Please go ahead.

[Sofia von Oelreich, analyst]

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. So my question is just around financial targets, but I'm assuming you don't really have any financial targets set yet and or maybe you do, but you haven't communicated that to the public?

[Richard Berkling, executive]

Yes. I think you answered our question -- your own question. Of course, we have financial targets, and we're quite ambitious company. But as we answered Henrik, since this call is about the quarter 4, we're sticking with the previous way of just reporting what's happened and not giving you too much guidance on the forecast. We acknowledge the fact that we need to add this to the presentations going forward, and we will introduce that in the upcoming calls.

[Sofia von Oelreich, analyst]

Understood. And I guess my second question here, and I think it's going to be a similar answer, but it's also around just kind of CapEx, how you see that evolving in upcoming years or, let's say, in the upcoming 2 years? Because if I understand correctly, the partnership with Bosch like kind of alleviates a lot of the spending on equipment and just if you -- because, as you say, Bosch supports you in the mass manufacturing. So that really kind of allows you to focus on other areas.But do you see yourself moving more into mass production and then spending more? Or is that something you're also going to communicate with time?

[Torbjorn Gustafsson, executive]

Thank you. I mean, that's a good question. And regarding CapEx, the coming years, I mean, as you - yourself points out, our collaboration and a partnership with Bosch enable us to focus on the system assembly. And the assembly or production of the fuel cell stacks that we can then source from Bosch. That's a CapEx-intense production, whereas we can now then source the fuel cell stacks from Bosch and then we focus on the assembly. It's a lot of value creation in making the systems and also the steering mechanisms of the system, but it requires less CapEx.So what we foresee in the coming years here, we can grow without any large amount of CapEx investments. And that could also go for increasing volumes in our facility in Gothenburg, but also if we do expand into any other geographical areas, we could -- without any major CapEx investments, we could set up similar assemblies and be close to our customers. So that's what we foresee in the near future.

[Richard Berkling, executive]

Yes. And this has been a very conscious and structured way of approaching the capacity and capability buildup of PowerCell is that we have a very strong partnership with Bosch, which makes us quite asset-light compared to many others in the industry.And the potential expansion into new markets with fuel cell system assembly is, as Torbjorn is saying, it is quite inexpensive compared to the central and mass production of the fuel cell stack. So we have optimized our industrial footprint in that way.Then, of course, we might enter into a different phase in the market if we see growth or potential to expand PowerCell beyond the existing footprint. But otherwise, it's a fairly asset-light growth journey that we are on, which is also why we feel confident on the cash position of PowerCell and the ability to generate a positive result for the upcoming years.

[Sofia von Oelreich, analyst]

Okay. Thank you. And I guess last question, sorry for taking up time. But last question is just do you have some sort of -- just to understand like some sort of breakdown in terms of like how much does it actually cost to build one of these systems? Just to understand like also what's the -- what are the cost components and how much of that is actually Bosch taking on – Bosch, sorry taking on. Yes, so just more like the fuel cell stacks like all those components. Is that something that you would disclose just like from a cost perspective?

[Richard Berkling, executive]

No. Of course, we have good -- I mean we know that, but that would be a fairly strategic information to share with the industry and our colleagues. So no, we will not disclose that. But of course, one benefit of working closely with Bosch is that you get a really good follow-up on all different aspects of production, everything from cost to quality to traceability, et cetera.So together with Bosch, we have a very mature manufacturing process, which gives us a lot of transparency and clarity and understanding of what is building up the cost. So we know that fully, but we are not going to share that to the market.

[Torbjorn Gustafsson, executive]

And I think just to add on your answer there, Richard, it's, of course, the different components and the cost of it and how to assemble it. But of course, also our systems is based on knowledge and capabilities that we have built up over time. That's also sort of an indirect costs that have been taken and that is now being put into the way that we are assembly systems and the steering mechanisms and software around it, that is very indirect then, but also part of where we have our position at the moment.

[Sofia von Oelreich, analyst]

Okay. Yeah, it makes sense. Thank you.

[Richard Berkling, executive]

So we have one question from Nicholas here, whether or not -- or how the OEM customers like Hitachi are important for our growth.And the way we view the growth in the upcoming years is that we need to have the OEM customers. As I said before, it is about getting our products designed into an industrial system because that gives us a stability from a sales perspective, that we get repetitive and recurring orders.But we also have a very clear value proposition together with the customer. And I think that we will see even more integrated solutions in the upcoming years because it is about simplifying the transition for the customers in the industrial system, taking away some of the issues with handling hydrogen, certification processes, et cetera.This is an emerging market, so knowledge out there is quite limited. So the more you can integrate solution, the higher the value creation and simplicity is for the end user. So OEM is going to be a very important growth enabler for PowerCell.And they are also coming with a skill set of the industry. They are a really strong market channel to any industry that we are serving. So that's also a benefit of working closely to the [ U.S ] And they are demanding customers, so they make us much better.

[Torbjorn Gustafsson, executive]

I think we have another question here, that is do you see that there will be service and aftermarket sales for you in the future?And I think we haven't elaborated too much on that in the report or now, but it's -- I think we have been clear in the report regarding that we are now working with the delivery and the project to SEAM and also the 2 ferries in Norway that will run for the Nordic Norwegian state. And on those, we have also said that we are now working with setting up a service agreement with them. And that is not really signed yet, but it's a something that we foresee that we have going forward.And that is something that comes up with potential customers from the very start to look at, okay? It will be an installation, but there will also be a need of having a service agreement and the aftermarket sales to this. So this is something that we are preparing ourselves for and also being a clear revenue stream going forward as well. Then as our products are going to be installed and it's going to be taken care of in the service and aftermarket sales.

[Richard Berkling, executive]

If we have any online questions.

[Operator]

There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

[Richard Berkling, executive]

We have a question here that we mentioned a focus on cash flow. But if we don't reach the goals, the need for new capital will increase. What does your plan look like to secure capital for growth?And I think we were on to this, that we do foresee that we do have a leverage going forward and potential of creating cash flow. We had a specific effect in Q4 than with a cut-off effect that worsened the cash flow for the fourth quarter. But going forward, we do see that there is no major need for CapEx investment that we've already commented on and a potential to really -- to grow with cash.But with that said, I mean, going forward, if we do foresee that we get potential [Audio Gap] we might, of course, or we will be open to have capital injection in one way or another. And that could come to a debt financing or it could also be to equity sometime, but it will be to focus on growth or fetching any possible growth in a good way.

[Torbjorn Gustafsson, executive]

And as you pointed out, equity will be something that we are approaching if we have a potential to expand the footprint of PowerCell and making active perhaps acquisition, et cetera, otherwise, it's not an area that we're exploring.And concluding on the fourth quarter, or the full year. Reporting at 27% growth, I think, will be in the industry, fairly good. But from our perspective, we want to perform even better. We view ourselves as a fast-growing company in a technology shift. In every technology shift and the innovative market, there will be fluctuations in both growth and demand. We view ourselves as growing companies so 27% is something that we want to improve. We also want to improve the leverage even more to be able to provide a breakeven to the shareholder and the market because that's a commitment that we see very strong.With that said, I am happy with the ability of PowerCell to adapt to new market conditions that we have a strategic agility to act on new opportunities to be able to capture what is out there and make sure that if one area of the market is slightly softer, we could expose ourselves to the more fast-growing and a long-term growing market. So I am happy with the ability to capture what is out there and also to continue to invest into new abilities that we are investing into the new generations of technology, where we have the medium-duty platform and heavy-duty platform that we go into industrialization in the upcoming years, even though we have what we think is industry-leading technology with the S3 stack, together with Robert Bosch in production, we are heavily investing into the new generations because this market is still an innovation-driven market, being able to continue to provide more value, both with the technology portfolio and product portfolio, capturing specific adaptations to segments will be a competitive advantage. And we are happy with the ability to do that and still have a leverage on the growth that we see.So not too happy with all of the numbers that we presented because we want to perform even better. But in relation to the underlying market, I think to an interesting 2024 where we will [Audio Gap] So thank you very much for today, and see you in April for the quarter 1 report.