Loomis AB

STO:LOOMIS

Earnings Call Transcript 2019-Q1

[Operator]

[Audio Gap] conference call [Operator Instructions] I must advise you, the conference is being recorded today.I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Patrik Andersson. Thank you, and please go ahead, sir.

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the first quarter presentation from Loomis. As mentioned, my name is Patrik Andersson, I'm the CEO of Loomis. And with me here today, I have Kristian Ackeby who is our CFO; and also Anders Haker, Chief Investor Relations Officer. So we start the presentation and turn to next page, which is Page 2, and the highlights of the quarter. I'll go through them here but also come back to some of the bullet points later in my presentation. So we had recent acquisitions, as mentioned before, Ziemann. We acquired the Ziemann company in Germany in January '19. So that gives us a very good presence in the German market. We also recently announced that we're buying Prosegur Cash in France, which turns the French market into actually 2-player market.The real growth in the quarter was 5%, and that's driven by the acquisition we made in Chile, Chilena de Valores; and the France acquisition of the FX company, CPoR. The organic growth was at 2%, so we're seeing an increased growth in Europe. We also see that the U.S. growth in the quarter was impacted by less workdays, but also restructuring program we have for the international business. I'll talk more about that later. Operating margin was 11.3%. And we see that the effects we have from the restructuring programs in Europe is paying off. And we also see more coming from those programs in the coming quarters. We see also some -- somewhat negative effect on the business from the yellow vest activities in France. We have integration and restructuring of Loomis International in the U.S., which is actually impacting the result positively. As I said, I'll come back to that. Improved EPS by 19% in the quarter, and here is also included SEK 33 million capital gain from the sale of Artcare, the Artcare business, which we don't see as core for Loomis. And operating cash flow was at 31% in the quarter. So we turn to next page, which is Page #3. And here, you see a slide of the operating development -- operating margin development over the quarters. I just want to highlight that this is actually the best or all-time high quarter in a single Q1 ever in the history of Loomis. So I think that's a good picture showing the strength of the business. And also we have an all-time high quarter with or without these IFRS effects. So let's turn then to next page, which is Page #4, and the U.S. business. So we had, in the U.S., an organic growth of 2%. And that's impacted by less workdays, less invoicing days in the country. We also, as I mentioned, we have restructuring of the international business in the U.S. As some of you remember, we integrated international business and the domestic business into one. We have decided to take out or stop less profitable international business mainly in supplying or handling transport and storage of diamonds and jewelry for fairs. And these contracts have not been very profitable and that we have sort of -- that business we have closed down. We have also closed 2 branches which are mainly focused on the international business. So having said that, we also see that SafePoint business continues to develop positively. I have a slide on that separately later on. And we have actually also then added a recycler concept to our product portfolio. And recyclers means that it's bigger machines, so bigger machines with technology that are focusing on mid- and large-sized retailers. And they -- these concepts, they are recycling the cash in-store before it's then taken out by us or some of our competitors. It's a more limited opportunity in comparison with SafePoint, but we think it's a very good fit with our business in the U.S. And we started to launch in the U.S. with a number of pilots, and I would say the interest is on a high level. So let's then turn to next page, Page #5, and talk about SafePoints. And right now, we have about 28,200 installation in the U.S. market. And revenue growth was very strong in the quarter, 14%. And we had 1,253, to be exact, new installations in the quarter. So very good pace when it comes to installation of SafePoints. The retention rate continues to be very high. So if a customer has chosen this concept, they stick to it. We should also then remember that we have now a very big installed base. That means that we need to pay much more attention to keep that base, to keep the existing clients, and that's why we also mentioned now the number for the refreshes, so extended contracts during the quarter, 324. And that number is hopefully going up quarter-by-quarter. But all in all, a very good SafePoints quarter, and the pipeline of new contracts continues to be very good and to be substantial. So then let's turn to next page, which is Page #6, and talk a bit about the operating margin. As I mentioned before, actually, the impact of the restructuring of the international business is already somewhat visible in the margin numbers. And I have to say that the margin on this level is, for us, it's a very, very strong sign of a good business in the U.S. So we had a very strong quarter 1 last year and now we are topping that. And for me, that's a really, really good sign. So the underlying CIT/CMS margins are stable compared to last year, which again is very good.We continue to focus on branch efficiency, and further improvements are expected. So we are doing really well on the efficiency side, supported by new software and new technology, which is sort of helping the internal efficiency. So a very strong margin in the U.S. So let's turn to next page, which is Page #7, and talk a bit about Europe. So the real growth in the quarter was 6%. And the acquisitions, as I mentioned, in Chile, Chilena de Valores; and the CPoR business is adding to the real growth. We are integrating these businesses as we speak, and these integrations are going very much according to plan. We also see that organic growth has now taken a big step-up. We are growing by 2% in the quarter, and I would say there is good contribution from all countries in Europe. But I'd like to mention some of them: Latin America, so Chile and Argentina; Spain is doing very well; Turkey is doing well; Belgium and Austria. But as I said, all countries in Europe are doing really well this quarter.Operating margin ended at 10.8%. And we have positive impacts from the restructuring programs that we're running in -- or run in France and Sweden -- actually, that we have finished in France and Sweden. And we see very good effects. And I think that and we will see further effects to be realized in the coming quarters. We -- as I said, we have some negative effects from the yellow vest in France but not as much as we had in Q4. So still, especially on Saturdays, it's difficult to do service in some of the major cities, it's difficult to get to the stores to take the -- to pick up the cash and so on. So that's not a big problem, but it's a bit disturbing the business. And we have efficient programs in many countries, the day-to-day operational efficiency programs, and that's ongoing and working very well. And we see also positive effects on the margin from the acquisition of the French FX business. We are now integrating that business with the French business. We will -- or have plans now to expand that FX business also to other countries in Europe, but more about that in a later presentation. So let's turn to next page, which is Page #8, and just have a short look at statement of income. We see that there's 2 main highlights: the margin, 11.3% versus 10.5% last quarter -- or actually Q1 '18; and earnings per share growing 19% in the quarter. Then turn -- let's then turn to next page, which is Page #9. And just to inform about a Capital Markets Update that we're doing in London, September 5. So it's a more -- it's a short term, more condensed Capital Markets Day, just a couple of hours. And the intention is to give an update on where we stand in terms of how we're doing compared to the financial targets we have until 2021, but also talk about the markets, how they are developing and talk about how we are developing the business, but also highlighting some new exciting business possibilities we have in the future. So we will send a separate invitation in short.So then we turn to Page #10. And I say, operator, we are now open up for questions, please.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question.

[Aymeric Poulain, Head of Support Services Research]

It's Aymeric Poulain from Kepler Cheuvreux. I have a few questions. First, on the U.S. organic growth. Could you give us the computation of the calendar effect and the discontinuation of international business on the organic sales? As we can see, most of the sales growth has come from SafePoint, but the rest is flat. So just to get a sense of what's the underlying trend, that would be helpful.You also talk about the recyclers. So what timing should we assume in terms of the impact? And also in terms of the model, how should we look at it given the SafePoint is a readily CapEx-light business? Here, you have a hardware that can be a bit more costly, then also probably some cannibalization effects. So just to understand the mechanics of your cash recycling business in the U.S. and the potential impact in the coming quarters.And last, on the European margin, you considered CPoR, which is a fairly high margin, and you mentioned some of the traction in the restructuring in France and Sweden. But could you give us an idea of how high you believe the European margin could end up the year at, please?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

All right. I'll start. So just to come back to the growth -- underlying growth in the U.S. So we had 2 effects, basically, which I mentioned, which is -- that we have explained there. So we have the less working day, that's quite clear what that is; and then we have the restructuring on the LI business. And I think that one part of the LI business is, of course, the effect on the bottom line when -- or the top line when you take out contracts, but also taken a bit of management attention on that business because we really want to turn that around quickly. So it's not -- one part is the financial impact or the figures and numbers, but they're also taking a bit of management's attention. So that's one thing.I think that we also see -- in the quarter, there was not that many new contracts, especially -- SafePoint is fine. But on the CMS side, there were less contracts out on the market. I would expect the underlying growth would be around between 4% and 5% to just give you -- it's very difficult to judge that, but just to give you a number, between 4% and 5%.

[Aymeric Poulain, Head of Support Services Research]

So sorry, just to be clear. That's including SafePoint's contribution?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

Everything, everything. Yes, everything. And then recyclers, we have had a full focus on the SafePoint concept for a long time, but now added, I think, a very good recycling concept. I think that we would see the pilots now during a couple of quarters. I think that if there's any effect, it should come by Q3, but mostly Q4. There's actually quite a limited cannibalization because I think that the big retailers, they are not so keen on the SafePoint concept. I mean the really big ones, they are going for more recycling concept or other concept. So I think that there's limited cannibalization. However, the market potential is also limited. It's not as big as the 400,000 possibility for SafePoints. But I think that that's a good opportunity for us.European margins, I won't -- did not want to speculate too much on where we end up. What I like to say is that we are in a good momentum in Europe when it comes to margin. We will increase margins and we will come back after a, let me say, a softer 2018.

[Operator]

We will now take our next question.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier]

This is Karl-Johan Bonnevier from DNB Markets. Just looking at the 2 pending acquisition of Ziemann and Prosegur Cash French operation, how do you see that playing out the competitive authorities? And when do you think it hopefully can be cleared?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

When it comes to Ziemann, we have just read -- see the information that the competition authorities would like to make a more thorough investigation, which is absolutely according to our plans. That's what we expected because it's a quite big acquisition and it's changing the market dynamics in Germany. So that's exactly according to our plans. I would guess my estimate is somewhere in Q3, we will get some kind of answer from the competition authorities in Germany, but it's going absolutely according to plan. What they will say, it's hard to say, of course, but some kind of reply we will get approximately in Q3.When it comes to Prosegur, it's slightly different because that acquisition doesn't have to be approved by the competition authorities. The thing is there that it needs to be a negotiation or talks with the unions, and I think that, that will happen in the next month or 2. So I would expect in summertime, so July, August, somewhere around that time, that we will be able to start integration in France.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier]

And when you look at -- you basically just completed your own rightsizing of your legacy operation in France. How are your relations with the union to take this to the next level?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

We have very good relations in -- it's not an easy country to make changes, to be honest, but we have very good relations with the unions. We have a very good plan. We know exactly what we want to do in France. And I shouldn't speculate too much, but I don't see too many obstacles in that respect.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier]

I noticed that you had quite a large working capital tie-up in the quarter. Is there any particular scene there? Or is it something that will normalize over the year?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

I'll hand that over to CFO, Kristian, here.

[Kristian Ackeby, Chief Financial Officer]

We have a timing effect coming partly from very positive in Q4 that we then mentioned also with the salaries that was paid out in beginning of January rather than late December related to U.S. and France mainly, so that could be -- could estimate that to approximately SEK 100 million. Then you also have an accounts receivable partly related then, of course, to that we are growing our business and that you have on a separate line.And then if we also look at the other working capital, we have an impact from that we have acquired gold actually to our CPoR operation. We believe that is a good business to do. And this time, it was more beneficial for us to do the hedging without the credit line rather with other financial instruments, and that's why you get the impact in working capital. So that should be seen as a timing effect.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier]

But if we look at this over, say, a rolling 12-month target, is there any change to the underlying fundamentals of you having, let's say, a negative working capital as totally in the operation over time?

[Kristian Ackeby, Chief Financial Officer]

No significant change. I will not say that we see that. If we're looking to the cash flow in percent of operating EBITA last 12 months, we're at close to 85%.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier]

Excellent. And if you look at also the cash flow statement, how did you see IFRS 16 playing out in those numbers?

[Kristian Ackeby, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. IFRS 16, we have implemented then, of course, then from January 1. You have a positive impact on EBITA line of SEK 13 million. You have a positive on depreciation of SEK 130 million. So when you -- that's also, when you adjust for that, you get the relation 1:1 depreciation CapEx. And that then give you the positive impact on the operating activities. You have the negative from financial net included in the minus SEK 43 million, you have the minus SEK 25 million, and then you have the remaining part in change in interest-bearing debt.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier]

And if you take it, the total impact on the cash flow statement is [ safer ] when you come down to bottom line, but it's a question where the items basically turned up.

[Kristian Ackeby, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. Yes, exactly, should not have an impact on the cash flow.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier]

Excellent. And Patrik, I think I saw you stating that you still see an outlook for SafePoint reaching 5,000 net installs during the year, is that correct?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

Yes. That's right.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier]

Do you still have the pipeline for that?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

No. We spoke to our U.S. colleagues a week ago, something like that, and I think they say that there's never been as much activity ever in the SafePoints world in the U.S. as it is right now. So I cannot promise anything, of course, but we have good hopes and good plans for 5,000 SafePoint this year, yes.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier]

Excellent. And just finally for me. Looking at SafePoint Europe, any progress?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

Yes, we're doing progress. Absolutely. We're doing good. We continue on the path that we have discussed. So very good progress in France, actually, Spain, Austria, Switzerland. So the mainland Europe is doing quite well on the SafePoint side, and we continue to roll it out in all countries as we speak. Also Sweden, actually. Sweden is one of the countries where we do really good on SafePoint. So [indiscernible], 7-Eleven, to mention a couple of customers in the Swedish market having installed it. So we're doing really well.

[Operator]

We will now take our next question.

[Carina Elmgren, Research Analyst]

This is Carina Elmgren from Handelsbanken. Could you maybe tell us what your market share is going to be in France with Prosegur Cash? And how we could be compared to Brink's?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

It's a good question. So if you take out CPoR, I think the relationship is like 47 for us and 53, 52 for Brink's, so they're slightly bigger. If you add -- and actually, a bit more, I would say. So maybe 46, 54, something like that. But if you add then CPoR, okay, the game changes a bit. But still, if you look at the pure CIT/CMS, they are somewhat bigger than we are. But it's -- the main point is that it's going to be 2-player market. And just a year ago, so it was a 4-player market, so both with Temis and Prosegur Cash. So I think that that's -- it's a good indication for the market that we can expect a more stable market for -- actually, we're a second biggest market. So I think it's positive.

[Carina Elmgren, Research Analyst]

Okay. Sounds good. Then I don't know if I missed this, but could you quantify the calendar impact on the organic growth in the U.S.?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

It's very difficult to quantify. What I've said is there are 2 main things that impacted it. It's international, as I said, and the days. And just to give you a number, everybody is asking about the number, as I said, I think that underlying, if you take out these 2 effects, we would be around between 4% and 5% growth.

[Carina Elmgren, Research Analyst]

Okay. But you couldn't even tell us which of these impacts were bigger?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

The days impact is bigger, of course. The days impact, yes.

[Carina Elmgren, Research Analyst]

Okay. Okay. Okay, great. And my last question would be regarding the SafePoint rollout. You expect to install approximately 5,000 units this year. And then do you still think you're able to come up to 10,000 in 2021? And would that be then -- I mean your increase, so maybe around [ 7,500 ] in 2020 or how do you see your rollout progressing?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

Yes, that would be the plan. I mean -- I think that we still have 10,000 installations in our plans in our heads, and I think that to break the 5,000 would be great. It's a big step. But then we need to step up big time. But I think that -- what I'd like to say is that there is a good momentum in the market. There are quite a number of bigger contracts out for grab when it comes to SafePoint. So the underlying momentum in the market for SafePoint or big step-change in SafePoint is there, and then we just need to grab that opportunity. But all aspects of getting to 10,000 is there. Yes.

[Carina Elmgren, Research Analyst]

Okay. But do you think you need to make more investments to scale up your organization even further like you did last year? Or do you think you have the capacity now to reach 10,000?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

No, I think we have the capacity. Of course, maybe slight changes when it comes to increases, when it comes to installation, people and so as service people. But that's not the main point. I think that 2018, as I mentioned, we did quite a number of investment into people and to IT, in the customer service and things like that. So that should be done already.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question.

[Henrik Mawby, Senior Analyst]

So it's Henrik Mawby from Nordea. Coming back to organic growth in the U.S. So my understanding, it is related to somewhat weaker client retention rate in the quarter. And I guess that means that you've been less successful in renegotiating than what we've been used to. Can you please elaborate around why retention is weaker? Who are you losing to? Why are your price levels too high? Or what's behind this?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

I wouldn't say customer retention is lower. I think that what we have seen is the 2 effects I'm talking about. But then also we have not seen bigger contracts or mid-sized contracts coming into the portfolio. I think that's the big explanation this quarter, and that goes in bumps. And this quarter was sort of -- the filling from the pipeline was not as good as previous quarters. I think that we're not in a total picture. We're not losing -- I mean we all -- always, there is a churn in the portfolio. It's more churn, you lose some, you win some, but that's nothing abnormal from before.

[Henrik Mawby, Senior Analyst]

Okay. Great. Staying in the U.S., I mean even after adjusting for IFRS 16, it seems like the margin improved significantly and surprised me positively. What should we read into that really? Are you done with strengthening the various parts that you needed strengthening a couple of quarters ago and now ready to let leverage come through again? Or what was it in the U.S. that drove this kind of strong improvement?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

That's a good question. I think that it was actually a bit surprising -- not surprising, but it was a positive for us that the margin was on that level. I think that what we see is that we have now -- first of all, we have rolled out IT system we call track and trace, which we have used in many European countries, really tracking all aspects of the CIT -- especially, the CIT process, but also CMS process, adding a lot of possibilities to optimize routes, you can optimize staffing, you can have more control over the supply and so on and so forth. So that's one aspect.I think that also, our CEO in the U.S. has -- he has been working in Spain for many years and taking a lot of that knowledge how to drive efficiency into the U.S. operation. And there are other explanations as well. But I think that what we can expect also for the future is that we see more efficiency coming through in the U.S. business.And what is a bit a contradiction is sometimes when you have a bit less growth, it gives you an opportunity to work more on the efficiency because you don't have to onboard a lot of new volume, new customers and la, la, la. And you know sometimes, it's good to have a bit less growth to be able to improve the margins, and that's what you see also a bit in the quarter.

[Henrik Mawby, Senior Analyst]

Okay, good answer. And one last question from me, please. On the other hand, organic growth in Europe surprised me positively, and you mentioned a few markets that have been driving that like Lat Am, Spain, Turkey, Austria, et cetera. But what type of revenues were the main drivers behind that? Is it international operations, strong portfolio development, there is a growth in existing contracts? Is it SafePoint? CMS? I think you know what I'm getting at.

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

What we see is we have now a very stable platform in many of these countries, which is meaning that we have very good quality, we have good staffing and so on. So we're adding new customers, new volumes both in terms of -- it varies a bit by country-by-country. So -- but in some countries, it's CMS; some countries, CIT; some, it's both; but also SafePoint. So all these 3 elements are actually contributing, but it varies a bit from country-to-country.But we also see that existing customers is giving more volumes to us. So you usually have a contract, you split it 50-50 between 2 suppliers, 60-40 maybe, but over time, those contracts go more and more in our favor. So -- and that, we see. So you see a country like Spain, for instance, growing -- still growing in a very healthy rate in a very mature market, and that's, of course, that the economy is doing well. But it's also that we're gaining market share, more retailers outsourcing to us and so on and so forth. So that's very positive to see.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question.

[Daniel Thorsson, Research Analyst]

Daniel from ABG. Can you hear me?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

Yes.

[Daniel Thorsson, Research Analyst]

Excellent. So do you expect the underlying U.S. organic growth to remain at these levels or to improve during the year already in 2019?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

It's -- as I said, I think for us, it's very clear to state that nothing has changed in the U.S. when it comes to the SafePoint potential or the CMS potential, nothing has changed. And we have been growing very, very healthy over the last couple of years or quarters. 1 or 2 -- some quarters will be maybe a bit below what we expect. But in the long term, we should be able to grow between 5% and 10%. So nothing has changed in that respect.

[Daniel Thorsson, Research Analyst]

Okay. Excellent. And then a question on France. Where are we today in terms of organic growth? Has it flattened out? Is it growing?

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

It's flattish, I would say. We had also one -- some less working days in France. But if you take that out, that effect, it's flat, which I think it's a sign that the business is stabilizing. So flat, yes.

[Daniel Thorsson, Research Analyst]

Okay. That's good. And then just a final one on CapEx. As a result of some restructuring going on both in Europe and the U.S., do you expect CapEx to sales to differ from the historical average of some 7%? Or is that still a valid figure?

[Kristian Ackeby, Chief Financial Officer]

We have no significant changes on the CapEx. I think what we were trying to do is to, of course, continue to guide you on how much will be related to leasing so it will be easier for you to follow. But we have approximately 6% to 7% of sales as depreciation, and CapEx is not an unrealistic number.

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time. Please continue.

[Patrik Andersson, CEO, President & Director]

All right. Thank you very much for joining the conference call, and I wish you all a very nice weekend. Thank you very much.