Karnov Group AB (publ)

STO:KAR

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Welcome to the Karnov Group Q3 2023 Report Presentation. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to CEO, Pontus Bodelsson; and CFO, Magnus Hansson. Please go ahead.

[Pontus Bodelsson, executive]

Welcome, everyone to Karnov Group's earnings conference where we will present the outcome of the third quarter of 2023. Please go to Slide 2. I am Pontus Bodelsson, President and CEO of the company. With me, I have our CFO, Magnus Hansson; and our Head of Investor Relations, Erik Berggren. Today, we are webcasting from our [indiscernible] office in Madrid. Magnus and I will present the outcome of the quarter using a few slides, and then we'll open up for questions. With that said, let's get started with the presentation.

Please go to Slide 3. We are pleased with the outcome of the third quarter. We launched our first generative AI solution for legal professionals, which is a great opportunity to increase customer value. Moreover, we had strong progress in the Region South integration and we are currently ahead of plan. I'll get back to both topics later in this presentation.

During the third quarter, net sales grew to SEK 619 million. The organic growth was 8% adjusted for the significant one-off sales of publications we had last year in Region North. Our positive sales development is thanks to higher subscription-based online sales across the group.

The adjusted EBITDA margin was 19% in the third quarter. In Q3, we can see the first margin improvement in Region South due to our harvesting of synergies. At the end of September, our leverage was at 3.2x EBITDA last 12 months. That is close to our financial targets, and we have our strong renewal season coming in Q4 and Q1.

Let's move over to Slide 4. We have a strong focus on operational excellence across the group. In Region North, we have launched initiatives to optimize our product portfolio. Moving forward, development is now across Region North rather than Denmark and Sweden separately. This will focus our tech department and make us more efficient, thus more profitable.

We have also divested our legal training business in Sweden as we founded suiting buyer, which can carry on torch and develop it further. In Region South, we have strong progress in the integration. In Q3, the adjusted EBITDA margin was 2 percentage points stronger than the corresponding quarter the previous year.

Our assessment is that approximately 50% of the margin improvement is due to cost synergies harvested. At the end of Q3, we have decreased costs by EUR 1 million on an annual run rate basis.

Next slide, please. In the beginning of October, we had our first Capital Markets Day. Some of you might have been there or listen to the webcast. And if you haven't, I recommend you to. At the event, we presented our profitable growth strategy, how we will enhance customer value through AI and deep dive into our integration track in Region South. We have also presented our updated financial targets, which I will come back to later.

Karnov Group is now winning in Europe. We do it using our recipe for success: that is customer centricity, local competence, global platforms and common partnership. We have been in this market for 200 years. And thanks to our proprietary content, we are able to deliver efficiency and certainty for legal professionals.

Our services are mission-critical. If we are not delivering, part of the society actually is interrupted. We are using generative AI to increase customer value. In Q3, we launched one solution for legal professionals. It is trained on our little bit of content for absolute certainty. What we also provide is transparency into the sources of the output -- resources on the answers you get when you're asking question. This is just a start of how we will use AI to make our customers even more efficient.

Please go to Slide #6. AI is indeed a great opportunity for Karnov Group to increase the customer value. And as you know, customer value is the foundation of our pricing model. So will AI decrease the need for lawyers? Well, I graduated from law school myself in 1995. Back then, Internet was becoming a thing and we discussed how Internet would affect the need for lawyers.

Consider how much faster we can access information today compared to those days in 1995. Despite this, there are in Sweden twice as many lawyers today as 25 years ago and 4x as many legal assistance. Today, my daughter is in the middle of her law studies. Will there be less jobs in the legal industry in the future? Internet created new legal fees and new legal questions. And AI will definitely do the same. Workflows will evolve with AI, but the demand for the professionals will certainly remain. Bearing in mind that the society is more and more complicated and regulated, the need for lawyers would probably be even higher in the years to come.

Please go to Slide 7. Through the acquisition of Region South, our addressable market grew 9x. We are now present in a total addressable market of SEK 17 billion. That market is also growing. Let me give you 3 figures on that. The first one, if we compare 2012 to 2022 in Sweden, we have twice as many laws published in 2022 compared to 2012. That is the way of showing a growing complexity in our society.

The second one is that 7 out of 10 lawyers predict that their need for legal services will grow. And the third one, 8 out of 10 lawyers foresee a greater complexity because of globalization. It's not only the local legislation that is growing, but also European legislation.

Please go to Slide 8. Staying close to customers is crucial for innovation. Our industry reports across our local markets serve as great tools for deep customer insights. Thousands of legal professionals across 6 European countries reply to the questionnaire. Combined, our industry reports constitute the largest European database of user insights from the legal industry. Through the insight gathered, we can innovate solutions to solve our customers' challenges of today and present opportunities of tomorrow.

Please go to Slide 9. I will now comment a little on our segments, starting first with Region North. Region North presents strong results in the third quarter. We continue to achieve strong growth in the segment, driven by increased subscription-based online sales. During the quarter, we have grown the customer base among municipalities in Denmark. We also see future growth opportunities amongst small law firms in the corporate sector.

Our focus is on operational excellence and increase customer value. As announced earlier, we have divested our legal trading business in Sweden. Our common product organization in the region are now working on a generative AI solution to be launched on the platform during next year.

Turning the page to Slide 10. Region South has now been part of the Karnov family since December. The financial performance in Q3 was solid with growing net sales and improved profitability compared to pro forma. Our generative AI solution was launched on our legal information platform in Spain in the quarter and will soon be integrated on our labor law solution in France.

Our Spanish businesses have started selling cross-organizational, utilizing their combined product portfolio. One example of cross-selling during the quarter is a large customer of LaLey, that recently renewed their content subscription, but also bought the subscription to an [indiscernible] body workflow solution.

Our French business has achieved growing online sales to the legal information solution. We have made strong integration progress during Q3. We are currently ahead of plan, both in terms of content migration and IT cars. The Spanish businesses will soon be using the same ERP system. At the end of Q3, we have decreased costs by EUR 1 million on an annual plan rate basis.

As earlier announced, our intention is to harvest synergies of EUR 7.5 million with full effect starting at the end of 2024 and synergies of a total of EUR 2 million, which will effect starting at the end of 2026. Cost to achieve the synergies are estimated to amount to EUR 24 million.

Turning the page to Slide 11. Before handing over to Magnus, who will dig into the financials of the quarter, I'd like to share a slide from the Capital Markets Day containing a time line for the synergies. The synergies will come progressively over the period. But you can see that we have 3 piece.

The one closest in time is during Q4 this year as we are consolidating offices in Spain. That will have a positive impact on the EBITDA margin in Q1 2024. Then we have another peak in Q4 2024 with a common tech platform and sales team.

Please go to Slide 12. Karnov Group has been around for 200 years. Our services are mission-critical and we have long-lasting relationships with customers. And our products represent a very small percentage of our customers' operating costs. The result of this is a business with high retention rates and economically insensitive end markets and a growing demand.

We have, therefore, resolved on update the financial targets, which you can see to the right. Please go to Slide 13. With that said, I will now hand over the floor to our CFO, Magnus Hansson, who I'm happy to have beside me. He will tell us more about the financial results in the third quarter.

[Magnus Hansson, executive]

Thank you, Pontus. So let's start with an overview, Switching to Slide 14. The net sales development within Karnov Group has been strong for the past few years. This growth continued in the third quarter. Net sales, last 12 months Q3 2023 reached SEK 2.4 billion, an increase of 7% compared to pro forma 2022. The growth is driven by increased online sales across the group, and of course, currency effects have a positive impact on net sales.

Please go to Slide 15. Net sales in Q3 reached SEK 619 million compared to SEK 567 million pro forma basis last year. The organic growth was 7.6% in the third quarter, adjusted for the significant one-off sales of school publications we had in Q3 last year. We have achieved strong growth within online sales of upselling to existing customers and attracting new customers. Furthermore, price increases are a contributing factor. Next slide, please.

On Slide 16, you see the net sales development within online and off-line sales split in 2 segments. In Region North, the online sales increased by 16% compared to Q3 last year and accounted for 88% of net sales in the quarter. In Region South, the online sales increased by 14% compared to pro forma and accounted for approximately 80% of net sales in Q3.

Please change to Slide 17. Subscription-based sales increased during Q3 and represent 88% of net sales in the quarter. The subscription-based sales will also generate strong operating cash flow as renewal sales season will be initiated during Q4 and Q1.

Please change to Slide 18. The adjusted EBITDA increased by 9% in Q3 and amounted to SEK 116 million. This corresponds to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.7% in line with the pro forma 2022. The earning capabilities in Region North is strong as Region North reported adjusted EBITDA of SEK 115 million, corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 41.4% in Q3. Region South reached an adjusted EBITDA of SEK 21 million, an improvement of SEK 8 million compared to pro forma and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.2%.

Items affecting comparability amounted to SEK 25 million during Q3 and is mainly related to the integration of Region South. At the end of Q3, we have decreased cost in the Region South by EUR 1 million on an annual run rate basis. As earlier announced, the ambition and short-term focus in Region South is to harvest synergies of EUR 10 million during the coming years. That will both increase the margin of course in the region and increase the group's adjusted EBITDA margin.

Let's move to Slide 19, please. As I earlier said, Region North has a strong net sales development. In Q3, net sales amounted to SEK 279 million. Organic growth reached 7.6% adjusted for the one-off sales, while the weaker SEK generated currency effects of 5.2%.

The growth is driven by online sales, and we continued to strengthen our market position in the public sector, EHS and tech and foundry. Adjusted EBITDA reached SEK 115 million in Q3. This is an increase of SEK 7 million compared to last year. The adjusted EBITDA margin amounted to 41.4%. The increase is mainly explained by the increased net sales falling during the operating profit. Depreciated by SEK 2 million compared to the previous years due to completed capitalized development fund.

Please move to Slide 20, which is the Region South segment. Net sales in Region South increased by SEK 36 million compared to pro forma Q3 last year. The increase is explained by currency effects. The underlying performance adjusted for the currency is and continues to be stable. The adjusted EBITDA margin reached 6.2% in the third quarter, which is an improvement of almost 2 percentage points. Harvest synergies is approximately 50% of the improvement, again, EUR 1 million on an annual run rate basis.

Moving to Slide 21, which is the new segment group functions. Group functions consist of the financial taking responsibility group-wide tax. The underlying cost base, excluding ordinary depreciation and amortization is unchanged in Region North and group functions compared to 2022. During the quarter, we had invested in group-wide projects such as business system enhancements, AI innovation as well as operating expenses for the Capital Markets Day. Expenses in Q3 reached SEK 21 million compared to SEK 19 million in the second quarter of 2023.

Please move on to Slide 22. The seasonality of the operating cash flow have changed by the acquisition of Region South. Karnov Group has a very strong cash generation in our invoicing. We will renew the majority of our customer contracts during Q4 and Q1, which will generate a strong operating cash flow. The leverage was 3.2x EBITDA the last 12 months at the end of September. Our leverage will, of course, improve from the strong cash flow by the renewals during Q4 and Q1.

Please note that we have updated our leverage definition in accordance with our new updated financial targets. Using the old definition, leverage would have been 3.6. I will now hand back to Pontus, who will present the last slide.

[Pontus Bodelsson, executive]

Thank you, Magnus. Please switch to Slide 23. So these are the highlights of Q3. Karnov Group has delivered a strong financial performance in the third quarter with solid organic growth. We are confident in our future growth capabilities and have updated our financial targets. We are ahead of plan in Region South integration and have harvested synergies of EUR 1 million on an annual run rate basis.

Please go to Slide 24. And by this, I'll end our presentation, and we are now ready to take questions. So I'll hand over the conference again to our host.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Daniel Ovin from Nordea.

[Daniel Ovin, analyst]

So my first question is on the synergy side. And you mentioned that you already derived some synergies in Q3 that you are on a run rate of EUR 1 million leaving Q3. And also, we know that you had this office merger in Spain that if I remember correctly, you talked on the these that, that was EUR 1 million in rent savings. So if I look at the graph there, it seems like you're a bit above the line of planned synergies. So maybe you can talk a little bit around that. Should we basically expect it to be above the line for the next few quarters? Or is there anything to add on that? That's the first question.

[Pontus Bodelsson, executive]

No. We actually think we're spot on the line. So the synergies related to the offices in Spain, will start in Q1 2024. So we actually think we're spot on the lines presented.

[Daniel Ovin, analyst]

Okay. Perfect. All right. Then the other question is on the South region because if I calculate here, you had a sales growth of 12.2%, FX 9.4%, so organic growth seems to be close to 3% at least. And if I remember correctly, last few quarters, you've been around flattish or so. And you also mentioned that churn has come down. So I'm just thinking here, is it going ahead reasonable to think that you should be more around the 2.3% level now as churn is not an issue any longer? Or is there anything else to add on to this? That's my second question.

[Pontus Bodelsson, executive]

No, it's more about the -- I think that -- we think that sales is stable and has been quite stable. So it's small numbers, and we think that the pro forma numbers for 2022 is still a valid point to have. So we expect stable sales going forward as well.

[Daniel Ovin, analyst]

Okay. Perfect. Then just the last question on the K Smart Chat that's now been launched in Spain. So I just wonder how many clients are using it today? And have you had any early feedback that you can mention perhaps?

[Pontus Bodelsson, executive]

Well, we have been testing it during the summer, of course, and it's still in early days. So we have had so far really good results from the first customers, but it's still early days. So -- but great hopes and we will continuously add more customer value into that K+ service. This is a starting point. It's about conversational search, but it's a very good starting point because adding new possibilities like summaries of legal documents, summaries of the law, et cetera, could be very interesting going forward. But this is the major start of all this. So early days, but very positive so far.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

[Pontus Bodelsson, executive]

So thank you, everyone, for listening and for the questions. We will disclose our Q4 report on the 14th of February, and we hope to hear from you then, if not earlier. Thank you from all of us in Madrid. Have a good day.

[Magnus Hansson, executive]

Thank you. Bye.