Kambi Group PLC

STO:KAMBI

Earnings Call Analysis

Kambi Reports Challenging Q4, Eyes 2024 for Growth

Kambi concluded Q4 with a slightly decreased revenue of EUR 44.3 million compared to EUR 45.2 million in the previous year, taking into account the absence of one-off gains from the prior period's World Cup. Despite this, Q4 profits showed marginal improvement with an operating margin of 8.3%, up from 8.1%. The company closed the full year with a solid cash balance, undertaking share buybacks and repaying debts. Looking forward, Kambi forecasts a challenging 2024 with revenue guidance of EUR 170-180 million, taking into account both headwinds from significant partner changes and potential windfalls from new market expansions like Brazil and new partnerships. Operating expenses for the next year are projected between EUR 155-165 million. With a strategic focus on selling modules and laying the groundwork in 2023, Kambi expects to emerge stronger post-2024.

A Closer Look at Kambi's Fourth Quarter and Annual Performance

Kambi reported a slight dip in Q4 revenue with EUR 44.3 million in Q4 2023 compared to EUR 45.2 million in the previous year. The drop is seen as relatively slight given the comparison period included the World Cup, a major sporting event that significantly boosts betting activity. Throughout the year, even excluding the one-off Penn termination fee, the company achieved a 13% revenue growth. However, the management did not find the full-year revenue figure very satisfying, expecting greater contributions from Shape Gaming and their largest partners.

A Strategic Focus and Modest Financial Results

Despite less-than-desired revenue performance, Kambi has made substantial strategic progress, particularly by finalizing large-scale partnership deals with Svenska Spel and LiveScore, which are poised to bear fruit in the future. CEO Kristian Nylén voiced his dissatisfaction with the results from Shape Games but remained optimistic that an early settlement agreement with Shape would expedite integration and evoke both financial and operational synergies.

Financial Maneuvers and Share Buybacks

The financial summary also highlighted significant cash transactions, including a convertible bond repayment to Kindred Group and buybacks totaling EUR 8.3 million, showcasing a proactive approach to capital distribution. Kambi's net cash balance remained a robust EUR 50.5 million at the end of the year even after these transactions.

Guidance for 2024 Amidst Headwinds and Tailwinds

Looking ahead, Kambi offered a revenue guidance of EUR 170 million to EUR 180 million and an operating expense forecast of EUR 155 million to EUR 165 million for 2024. This cautious guidance considers various headwinds including the end of transition fees from Penn National Gaming, revised commercial terms with existing partners, and the loss of certain operators like Penn National Gaming itself. On the upside, regulations in Brazil could open new opportunities, and growth from recent partnerships and product modules can act as tailwinds.

Ready for the Future with a Strong Strategic Foundation

Kristian Nylén concluded with a sense of preparedness for what lies ahead. The strategic progress made in 2023, in his view, lays a sturdy foundation for future successful years. By shifting the focus back to selling modules after product development completion for key customers, Kambi looks to strengthen its market position moving forward.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Good morning, and very welcome to Kambi's Q4 2023 Report. My name is Mia Nordlander, and I am Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. And today, I am here with our CEO, Kristian Nylen; and our CFO, David Kenyon. Today, we will hear Kristian and David present the quarter and the year. And after the presentation, you will be able to send questions to us. You can either do so via telephone or you can send them to me on the web.So let's start. We will start with Kristian to talk about some highlights from the quarter and then some feedback and review from the year behind us. Then David Kenyon will take over and talk about our financial summary and outlook. And then Kristian will come back and talk about the Q4 commercial and strategic updates. Then we have a short summary and then it's time for questions.So over to you, Kristian.

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

Thank you, Mia. Good morning. So yes, the quarter, Q4 revenue came in at 2%, down year-on-year if we exclude the Penn termination fee. This was a year where a comparison is towards 2022 when we had the World Cup. So I think that would have meant that it's roughly the same. On a full year basis, we have the same, taking out the Penn termination fee, we are up full year 13%. As I said in the report, this is not a result we are very satisfied with. There are numerous reasons for that, but the main ones, I would say, is we would have expected higher revenues from Shape Gaming and from our largest partners, but we expect it to perform better than they did.During the year, I think we have done some additional signings. Of course, we have already talked about the large ones in Q4, Svenska Spel and LiveScore, but we have also done a couple of more, 711 in Netherlands and Bingoal in predominantly Belgium, and I will talk more about them later on. As I said, we are not that pleased with the results from Shape Games. And therefore, we decided to do an early settlement agreement. Dave will go through the details later on. But what I hope this will mean is that we will quicker get to full integration between organizations, which will mean both financial synergies, both on the revenue side and the cost side. We have also given a full year guidance for 2024, which Dave will go through more in detail.All in all, I would say that we have -- we feel we have done great strategic progress during the year which will set us up for future success. And I will talk a little bit more about that on the next slides. But first, just a reminder, on the Capital Markets Day in early last year, we gave 5 growth drivers of what is important to reach our 2027 financial targets. These drivers were, as you can see, utilize the platform to retain key partners, roll out AI pricing, extend our lead as a supplier in Americas, signed Tier 1 operators across our portfolio and launch a major regulated market in Asia. I will go through progress on 4 of these boxes. But in Asia, I would say, nothing has happened so far. So it's not very much to talk about on that point yet.For the financial targets, they are under review and we will come back with a projection during the year. But one thing that has happened is that in the last weeks, it became quite clear that California is very unlikely to happen. We don't believe there will be a referendum this year, which would have been a prerequisite for that to happen within the period of 2027. So now we believe the best case for California is 2028.So in 2023, yes, retain key partners. We have done 7 partner renewals. Some of them -- a few of them by almost the largest we have now, Rush Street, Leovegas and BetPlay. And we have created a more open platform. And as I will talk later on, we will bring on a third-party supplier for first time in a few months' time. We have talked about rolling out AI-powered trading. And at the moment, 75% or our pre-match soccer is traded on the new platform. We have, during the year, taken more than 200 million bets from Tzeract-powered pricing. And we expect during the year to go live with in-play on soccer and returns. We believe we have extended our lead as the #1 supplier in Americas. We have launched in several new states in U.S. And we have done multiple launches in Latin America, especially in Argentina, during 2023. But we all are waiting for Brazil to happen. And that is, of course, a very important thing to happen in 2024.Then finally on this signing Tier 1 operators across the portfolio. We have done a few very significant signings during the year. Bally's, LiveScore and Svenska Spel are probably the 3 largest we have done during the year. So all in all, I would say, we are very pleased with what we have done during 2023 and I think we're very well positioned for the future.And with that, I hand over to David. I will come back later on again.

[David Kenyon, executive]

Thank you, Kristian. Good morning, everyone. So Q4 revenue was EUR 44.3 million versus EUR 45.2 million in Q4 2022, a quarter which included the Football World Cup. All the numbers I show you on this slide for last year exclude the one-off Penn National Gaming termination fee of EUR 12.6 million, which was recognized as a one-off in Q4 last year.Operating expenses this quarter were EUR 27.3 million and were lower than Q4 2022. The FX loss we had was much smaller than this time last year. And there was also a one-off credit this quarter in relation to some IFRS 2 costs on share options. And the result was that our earnings before interest, tax and amortization on acquisitions was EUR 8.5 million, up from EUR 7.9 million in Q4 last year.There were some items affecting comparability, which came below the line, which I should talk about for this quarter. Firstly, on -- in relation to the acquisition of Abios a couple of years ago. We made a EUR 5.6 million payout on the earn-out to them. This resulted in EUR 1.5 million credit being taken on the P&L for a release of the unused contingent consideration on that investment. Similarly, as Kristian mentioned, we made a payout in relation to the Shape earn-out. This was a full and final settlement of that earn-out agreement. There was a payout of EUR 4.7 million in the quarter. This led to an EUR 11.3 million credit being released on to the P&L again for unused contingent consideration.Similarly, we did an annual impairment review as we have to do each year. And again, on the Shape, which aligns with the earn-out assumptions, but we took a one-off non-cash impairment expense of EUR 12.4 million. So those -- all those items came below the line, but they I will take them there in Q4, and they actually net to around EUR 0.4 million across all those lines.Turning to the full year numbers. Again, excluding the termination fee from last year's numbers, revenue up 13%. But as Kristian said, we're not fully satisfied with that number. If we look back to what we had hoped for, I'd say, some of our existing key operators delivered less than we anticipated in the year. Specifically, Kindred have talked about finding themselves affected by regulatory measures in both Belgium and Norway. And Penn, who were quite outspoken in the fact that they were reducing their marketing prior to the online migration. And both of those 2 key customers really did impact the numbers that came through to us on our revenue share.Kristian also mentioned the development of Shape not being as we'd hoped at this stage. Of course, that was -- that contributed to the early earn-out settlement agreement and the subsequent management restructure that we've made in that division. And I think on the back of those changes and those -- that settlement agreement, we actually still believe we have a strong complement to our strategic plans for the whole Kambi Group with Shape.The underlying cost growth this year, stripping out the impact of Shape, FX and the one-off I mentioned on IFRS 2, is actually underlying cost growth of 6% year-on-year. And then adding back in the impact of Shape and FX that led to EBITA on pre-acquisitions of being flat to around EUR 25 million for the year. The net cash balance at the end of the year was EUR 50.5 million after some pretty major cash transactions during the year, which I'll talk through now after the turnover index.So this one is the aggregation of the operator performance across the network. So I show each quarter. And it shows the blue columns are the aggregated indexed amount of turnover through our network across all our operators. And the orange line is the aggregated operator trading margin. The turnover you see is a steep rise from Q3, up to 789 from 602. Of course, Q4 has a strong sporting calendar, including Soccer, NFL, NBA and College Basketball this quarter.If we look back to Q4 2022, that number of 913 included 168, which was a contribution from the Penn Online business. Excluding that, so for the underlying growth in our turnover, it was up 6% despite last year having that Football World Cup. The margin for the quarter was 8.3% versus 8.1% last Q4. I can say it started quite low in October then did pick up strongly as the quarter progressed.On to the cash flow now. So this is on a full year basis. We had EUR 60 million in the bank at the start of the year and made operating profit of just under EUR 20 million. But then there's some significant cash outlays you see on the right-hand side of the slide. So EUR 10.4 million in tax payments. This comprised both corporation tax and withholding tax. We've repurchased EUR 8.3 million of shares during the year in Q2 and Q4, and I'll talk more about that. In Q2, we repaid the convertible bond to the Kindred Group. This was for EUR 7.5 million. And the earn-out payments I've discussed, so EUR 4.7 million to Shape and EUR 5.6 million to Abios virtually all in Q4 have also come out during the year. And this leaves us with a net -- with a cash balance at the end of the year of EUR 50.5 million.We have been doing quite a few share buybacks this year, as I said, in Q2 and in Q4. So we've repurchased 462,000 shares during the year for EUR 8.3 million, representing just under 1.5% of the shares in issue. We've actually now repurchased 986,000 shares since we started doing buybacks. And of those, we've used 247,000 settled share options. This leaves us with a bank of 739,000 shares at the end of the year, representing 2.36% of our total share capital. And there's various potential uses for those shares, including either cancellation or being -- or using them to settle incentive schemes.So looking ahead to 2024. So we don't normally make revenue guidance, but there are so many moving parts here in the 12 months ahead that we felt kind of the need to really specify the impact of those on us. Starting with the revenue then. So obviously, we have EUR 173.3 million as a starting point for 2023. And there's both headwinds and tailwinds when we look ahead into 2024 on that number.Firstly, the headwinds. So Kristian mentioned a raft of extensions of key partners for us. And some of them come with changes to the commercial terms in return, of course, for longer commitments to the contract. The biggest impact is from the Kindred Group, as we've mentioned before, that the new terms in that contract taking effect from 1st of January this year. There have been operators leaving the network. And the biggest financial impact, of course, is from Penn National Gaming, transitioning their online business. As part of that agreement for the transition, there were transition fees to cover of EUR 15 million. Those end in July 2024. And of course, the loss of the online business after the transition fees and is a material headwind for us versus 2023.Also in 2023, there was a non-recurring license fee in relation to the Shape business, which we recognized in Q3 just under EUR 3 million. So those are the headwinds. But in terms of tailwinds, what is that, we have regulation in Brazil looming. We don't know exactly when, but it's a very exciting opportunity for us. The timing is uncertain. And of course, we'll keep you posted when we have any certainty on that. It does look like being a competitive market. It's a mature gray market, you can call it. And over 100 operators have expressed an interest in taking a sports betting license, but we are looking forward to that launch as and when it happens.In terms of potential additional growth from our modules, in particular, I can highlight Abios, and Kristian is going to share some of their growth prospects later in this presentation. And also some of our other modules have potential for growth in 2024. And of course, the 2023 partner signings. So both LiveScore and Svenska Spel are yet to launch. And we hope they launch during this year and they can contribute to our revenues, of course, and hopefully, in a material way in the second half of the year. And we hope to see growth from Bally's, which was the other big signing, which when they kind of changed their approach on marketing it from a less measured approach that we're seeing at the moment, then potentially that has growth potential for us in 2024 also.In terms of costs, our operating expenses, excluding FX, were EUR 151 million this year in 2023. And we're making a forecast that cost growth will be limited to EUR 155 million to EUR 165 million in the coming 12 months in spite of the inflationary pressures, which we're of course seeing. And there are still further synergies to be delivered and we're not seeing the full benefit of those yet in 2024. So those synergies, particularly in relation to further development of the Tzeract trading functionality will likely come further down the line for us. So overall, this leaves us with EUR 170 million to EUR 180 million guidance on revenue and EUR 155 million to EUR 165 million guidance on OpEx. Clearly, there are pushes and pulls on those 2024 revenues, but our long-term prospects do remain solid and we've really limited our cost growth in 2024 accordingly.And with that, I'm going to pass you back to Kristian.

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

Thank you, David. All right. So Q4 was another busy quarter when it comes to 2 things happening. We have already talked about Svenska Spel, LiveScore. I will touch on the new signings later on and I will talk about Abios later on as well. But WarHorse, I thought was worth mentioning here as well. It's a first retail sportsbook that anyone has launched in Nebraska. And it actually does quite nice numbers. It's only retail because that is what the regulation allows at the moment. But yes, seeing early nice numbers growing steadily.We also launched Rush Street in Delaware where we were winning a tender for a state lottery. And the sports betting was launched in December. So it's early days. But again, they are alone in the market, so it should have some potential. And finally, on this slide, we have Bally's launching its 11th U.S. state in January, I think we have already launched 11 state as well. As David mentioned, I think we have taken a very measured approach to marketing so far. But I really hope that they will start pushing sports betting more in the near future.So to our Kambi partner wins during Q4, 711 signed a long-term partnership with Kambi. They have been a very fast-growing casino brand in the Netherlands and are now going into sports betting. And I think if I can replicate a little bit of what we have done on casino, it can be a very exciting partner for us. The second one here, Bingoal, I think has been around for probably 3 decades in Belgium. They operate in both online and in 350 outlets around Belgium, and we will do both online and retail for them. And yes, they have a very large presence already. And with our product, I hope they can regain a good position in the Belgium market, and they have also expanded into the Dutch market.I also said I would touch on Abios. We have not talked very much about the Abios since the acquisition, but I thought now they're really starting to hitting off with their odds product. And in November -- late November, they launched their esoccer product, which means that, yes, in December, I think we are already were 4x larger in terms of bets taken in December compared to November, as you can see on the graph here. It also, in December, was the 5th most -- 5th league with the most best taken across the network after some of the really big soccer leagues and NBA.When you couple their esports product, which is not only growing very quickly in terms of the amount of events they're covering, but also it's a much, much better product than we had before. When we couple that with the streaming that we are separately selling to partners, you get an 80% player engagement increase, which makes it even a stronger product. During the year, I think we will see further improvements, more events on the esoccer, but also a larger presence into other games like Counter Strike League of Legends, Dota 2 and Valorant. So I think it really starts to move on Abios, which will have a great effect for Kambi partners on the network. But we also believe that Abios will be able to sell this product externally to other partners.After the quarter, we have also held some events. First of all, Penn has decided to extend with us for 18 more months to -- for the retail network, and we are currently powering 30 retail properties in 13 states for Penn. So that revenue stream will continue for another 18 months until the end of 2025. So very pleased with that. And secondly, we have entered into an agreement with virtual sports provider, Inspired. And we're integrating Inspired's product into our platform. This was a requirement from one of our recent new turnkey customers and has also been a requirement from many of our existing customers. So this is a first example of what we will see more of, Kambi opening up the platform and giving our customers some additional opportunities such as the virtuals here.So to summarize the quarter, there are some near-term financial headwinds, as David communicated here. We are not very pleased with the revenue numbers, as I said. But now I think we are in a very good spot to move forward. And after 2024, I think we will be in a much, much better spot. We will sharpen our focus towards selling modules again. I think we have come through a lot of the product development we had to engage with because of the large turnkey customers we won last year, and now it's time to turn back the focus to the modules. And I would say that the strategic process we had during 2023 has laid a great foundation for success in coming years.So with that, thank you very much, and we open up for questions.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Now it's time for questions. And as I mentioned, you can either call them to us or send them through the web. But over to the operator. I think we probably have some questions on the phone.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Simon Jonsson from ABG Sundal Collier.

[Simon Jönsson, analyst]

I'm standing in here for Oscar Ronnkvist today. First, a question on the '24 revenue guidance. Can you give any more indications of how much new Kindred contract is weighing on revenue year-over-year?

[David Kenyon, executive]

We can't comment on specifics, but hopefully, the guidance in total is enough information for you. But no, we can't comment on specific contract numbers. Sorry.

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I mean, I think there is one number you can take some guidance in and that is that minimum revenue guarantee over the next 3 years is EUR 55 million. It could be spread unevenly, but at least, it gives you something to hang it on.

[Simon Jönsson, analyst]

Great. And also a question on the guidance here. Have you included expectations of new signings in the targets? And how much in that case or would that be a positive contribution?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

Yes. Of course, there are some revenues included for new signings. However, signings that is done now and later is probably not contributing until late in the year. So it wouldn't be very much income from that.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Georg Attling from Pareto Securities.

[Georg Attling, analyst]

A couple of questions from me. Just starting off with Shape and Abios, if you could say how much they contribute to us in the quarter?

[David Kenyon, executive]

Yes. So Abios is around EUR 0.5 million on revenue and a small loss at an EBIT level, so around EUR 0.2 million of loss. But I'd say, there you saw in the graph that Kristian showed, the real pick-up in December. So I look forward to update you with significantly more positive numbers on them as we move into Q1 and Q2. But if we can see that continued growth from the streaming and the soccer, then I think we'll see more positive numbers in the future. On Shape, it was around EUR 2.8 million revenue for Q4 and a EUR 0.2 million loss at an EBIT level.

[Georg Attling, analyst]

Okay. And on the revenue guidance for '24, I know you're having a new contract now with Kindred, but does that -- do you also expect continued pressure on their underlying activity or is it just a contract term question?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

It's mainly a contract term question, but obviously, we don't know the ins and outs of what will happen after their acquisition. But I mean, I think their new owner -- potential owner has communicated that they are not so interested in some of the markets. So it's a possibility I would guess that we wind some of these markets down earlier than by the end of the year, but we don't know that yet.

[Georg Attling, analyst]

Yes, that's clear. And on the OpEx guidance, EUR 155 million to EUR 165 million, up a bit from this year. I was just wondering the thinking here when revenue is pretty much flat and you -- the top end of the guidance is quite a bit of OpEx growth. So what you bake in here? Is it headcount, expansion or other operating or if you could just provide more detail on that?

[David Kenyon, executive]

Yes. I mean, of course, there's some costs that are hard to kind of hold back, if you like, in terms of kind of some elements of salary inflation and other inflationary pressures from some suppliers. But I mean, all in all, I think to limit it to, I think it's 1% to 7% or 1% to 8% cost range there. So I think it's certainly at the low end. And I mentioned earlier around the synergies, there's quite minimal impact actually from the synergies in that number. So I think actually the full benefit of those synergies comes later than 2024.

[Georg Attling, analyst]

Okay, that's clear. And then just a question. You were at ICE earlier this month showcasing the update, the product offering. Could you say anything about the reception you got there, both from existing customers and potentially new ones?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I think the ICE was a really good event for us this year, both on the turnkey, but I think it was a lot of excitement around all the different modules as well. So the outcome from ICE is very, very positive for us. And I think we are in really good shape for the future.

[Georg Attling, analyst]

Okay. And just a final question to you, Kristian, now that you leave the CEO role. Looking back, is there anything you wish you did differently strategically? And what you hope your successor will do different to what you've done?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

Yes, that was a big question. I think there is certainly things that we could have done differently, but I think we have done a fantastic job during these years. I believe it's quite hard to always know in what direction this industry is going. I think, yes, if you take one of the big decisions we took early on was to be fully regulated. And yes, I still believe that that has been a good choice. But yes, we have seen, for instance, one of the big reasons we did it was to be able to get licenses in the U.S. and some competitors got licenses without being regulated too. So yes, that is probably one of the biggest decisions that we could look back on. I think we did the right decision at that point. I'm not sure we would do the same again.

[Georg Attling, analyst]

Okay. And on that topic, now that we've seen that operators or suppliers, I should say, who operates in unregulated markets have no problem with the licenses. Will you revisit this decision or firm on just doing regulated?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

It's definitely something we will -- we are reviewing. I do believe that -- yes, we will come back on that, but it's something we're reviewing whether we should take it slightly different stance. Having said that, I think it's -- yes, you asked the question on how far you could possibly go in that case.

[Operator]

The next question is from Martin Arnell from DNB Markets.

[Martin Arnell, analyst]

So my first question is on the revenue outlook. You commented on '24 and we know that you expect a bigger contribution from new customers from Q3. So if you look further out, how should we look at 2025 in light of that when it comes to the growth outlook?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I mean, we gave a one-off guidance for '24, so I will not give you more guidance on 2025. We have given the 2027 guidance or not guidance, a target. That will be reviewed. But I mean, yes, we will not give you more than what is at this point.

[Martin Arnell, analyst]

It's fair. Should we view your company as like growing in line with the sector or could you give any light on what you view as a sort of a medium-term growth ambition?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I mean it's still hard to look at the growth in terms of percentages when you have so many moving parts here with quite significant contract renewals, you have one of our largest partner leaving the business in online in 2025 and so on. So I don't think talking about growth in terms of percentages is relevant for the next coming years.

[Martin Arnell, analyst]

If I may, Kristian, can I rephrase it and ask you about what do you expect the underlying growth in your customer network to be?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I would expect it to be higher than average because we still have quite a large portion of customers who are coming from low levels.

[Martin Arnell, analyst]

Okay. And then if I look at your cost, it's been a little bit lower than what you've guided for on the 2023. And how should we view these ranges in revenue and cost? Is it possible that the sales guidance could come in, in the high end at the same time as the cost would be in the low end? Is that a possibility?

[David Kenyon, executive]

Yes, it's certainly a possibility because they're not -- in this business, there's not that direct link necessarily between the revenue and the cost. So of course, yes, I mean, it can -- you could see high on the revenue range and lower on the cost range. That's absolutely feasible.

[Martin Arnell, analyst]

And then could you say anything about your long-term margins? Have your expectations changed when it comes to that?

[David Kenyon, executive]

Are you talking about the betting margin or...

[Martin Arnell, analyst]

I was more referring to operating margins.

[David Kenyon, executive]

Again, it comes -- I think for me, it comes a lot down to the regulations we talked about. If those happen as we hope, this can be, of course, a significant increase in operating margin. But so much of that '27 number is dependent on that and that's the review that we're undertaking. So hopefully, we'll come back with new guidance for you as -- when we have a little bit more clarity on that.

[Martin Arnell, analyst]

Okay. And then my final comment, Kristian. You're signing and you're joining the Board. What do you think is the main characteristics that the Board is looking for in a new CEO of the company?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I would -- I don't think it's right for me to answer that question since that is more on the Chairman and the rest of the Board to find my replacement.

[Operator]

There are no more questions from the telco at this time. So I hand the word back to you, Mia.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

We have quite a few questions here. So I think we shall start with you, Kristian, modularization and the selling modules. You have talked about Bet Builder, how do you see it? Do you think it's a high demand from the U.S. or when do you think we can see the first deal? And I think we're not talking about Abios and Shape now.

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I mean, I assume that we're talking about a large deal. And I mean, there is not that many out there. There is a lot of interest, but it's also quite fickly when it comes to timings. But I'm very positive. And I think we are -- have some really interesting discussions now. And as I said, I think we are ready to focus on getting a product to the market as well. So I would be hoping that we will be able to announce something during the year.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Great. David, a few questions regarding the '24 guidance. Is this including Penn's extension? And have you included new potential customers during the year?

[David Kenyon, executive]

Yes and yes.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

And Kristian, you just communicate that AS is not continue. How do you make the due diligence on your new customers to know that they are good to actually take on board?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I think we do a very thorough process in this case. I mean, AS is owned by giant in the market, Mercure. So I mean, they had all their abilities to do this. But I don't know why they changed their mind about moving into Brazil. But I would obviously take on that kind of customer next time as well.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Kristian, it's probably rather a question for Andres or [Indiscernible], but with the new leadership, do you think the strategy will change?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

No, I think we've been quite clear, both me and Anders, but we believe we are on a very good path with the strategy. But of course, I assume that the new CEO also will have an input on what he or she thinks about that.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

A question regarding Penn Retail. Will this impact the termination fee? I think you referred to actually the transition fee. The termination fee was paid last year, but maybe you can give some clarity there, please?

[David Kenyon, executive]

No, it won't affect those transition fees. That was EUR 15 million and it's recognized July '23 through to July '24, but it's all in relation to the online transition that we're supporting them with. So no impact on that.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

And probably for you, David, as well. You mentioned that 75 pre-match soccer bets are done through AI. Do you expect any more cost savings through AI?

[David Kenyon, executive]

I mean, ultimately, yes, and that's why I talked about those -- the synergies we'll see either at the end of the '24 or slightly beyond that time period. But ultimately, yes, I mean, that's one of the reasons why we're doing this. Not only a better product, but also it's less human intervention in that product.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Kristian, can you talk more about Bally's during the year? Why has it been slower than you expected?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

No, I can't talk very much about it. I mean, that's not -- yes, we expected them to push the product much more. They have chosen other strategy. I don't know if they're waiting to reach a certain amount of states before pushing sports betting or what is holding them back. But we certainly expect them to become much larger than they are at the moment.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

David, some clarity on the new Kindred contract. It has different commercial terms. However, given that Kindred is yet to roll-off your sportsbook, how come this does not offset this? Maybe that we have a 3-year contract and I think you talk about the '24 guidance and how Kindred will impact it. I think we should give some clarity. That is a 3-year contract basically.

[David Kenyon, executive]

3-year contract, I'm not quite sure I understand the frame of the question. [Indiscernible] the terms on all the business that we operate. And at this stage, that's as in the past, it's not France and Australia or not France, but it's predominantly the rest of the business.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Yes, this we already answered this that the guidance includes potential new contracts, as you should answer, Kristian. But sales pipeline. How do you see that U.S...

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

Yes. I think it's looking really, really good. I know I said it many times, I think we delivered on it last year. We have Svenska Spel, LiveScore and Bally's. I think we have seen a lot of interest from quite large operators during the last couple of months. So I think it's in a really good shape at the moment. And I would say both on the modular side and on the turnkey side.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

David, given the share price development and a strong balance sheet, do you plan to accelerate the share buyback program?

[David Kenyon, executive]

I mean, I could say, we've announced a scheme that runs through to the AGM, which is in May. So there will be more buybacks under that previously announced scheme. And then let's see what mandate we look for at the AGM. I know the Board is working on that. So we'll watch this space, I would say, for beyond May.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Another question on the '24 guidance. Can you say something about Brazil and expectations there?

[David Kenyon, executive]

I mean, we have one signed operator that we wait -- is just waiting for regulation in Rei do Pitaco. So that's kind of locked in. I'm just waiting for the regulation to come. And then it's when will that regulation be in? I mean, it's going to be, I think we're all assuming second half of 2024 at some point.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Yes. And also, we expect it's going to be a highly competitive market.

[David Kenyon, executive]

Yes. I mentioned -- I mean, I think there's -- operators need to make a formal expression of interest in taking sports betting license, and I'm aware there's over 100 who have expressed interest. So it will be competitive. I'm sure we can succeed.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

In your guidance, how much of Kindred's sportsbook have you assumed that Kindred would in-source this year?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

Not very much. I mean, I think -- yes, what we have understand from their communication, 2024 we will mainly be outsourced to us. I think we will do some test markets, but not very much more than that.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Yes. Kristian, do you see any price pressure from existing customers when you renegotiate it?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I mean, you always see some price pressure, but I think the largest part with new contract is that customers have grown. So they become often much more significant customer. And then we move to another kind of tier where we would look at them and then the price naturally goes down. I would also say that, I mean, in the case of Kindred, I think this was the first time the contract was negotiated on more total commercial terms. We have always had to give them a convertible bond before, whereas this time, we negotiated without a convertible bond in place.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Tzeract, are they fully ready to sign customers now?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

They are quite ready. However, I think they need more products to sell. At the moment, it's only pretty much soccer. I think they -- to have a product to really sell to the market, I think they need a little bit more.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Another one for you, Kristian. When you lose a deal to new potential customers, what is the biggest reason for that? Is it price or is it flexibility or PAM?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I would say price is probably the largest reason. Now I would say that we don't lose that many opportunities to competitors. But yes, when it happens, I think they have come in much, much lower than us on price.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Rush Street, can we give some color there? How are they performing?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

I think Rush Street is doing very well. They are -- they have taken more of a stance of focusing on certain markets in the U.S. They are a casino first brand in the U.S., but I think they are doing well. They're doing very well in some of the markets in Latin America as well. So yes, a very good partner to us.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

In your strategic review, will you discuss about entering more gray markets?

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

As I said, I mean, this is something we always have as a discussion point and the landscape is changing, as I said. I mean, we didn't believe that the regulators would be as lenient, especially in the U.S., to working with suppliers in -- who had gray markets, but that has turned to be very different than we thought from the beginning.

[Mia Nordlander, executive]

Okay. I think that what was it for today. Thank you very much, Kristian. Thank you very much, David. Thank you very much for listening in to us today. We will be back here for the Q1 report on the 24th of April. And if you have questions, of course, feel free to reach out to the IR department, and I wish you a very good day. Thank you very much.

[Kristian Nylén, executive]

Thank you.

[David Kenyon, executive]

Thank you.