Hexpol AB

STO:HPOL B

Earnings Call Analysis

HEXPOL Faces Challenges Yet Maintains Strong Financials and Growth Outlook

In Q3, HEXPOL reported sales of SEK 5 billion, down 9% year-over-year, primarily due to a 7% decline in organic sales driven by lower automotive demand. Despite these challenges, the company achieved an EBIT of SEK 800 million, reflecting a solid margin of 16.1%. HEXPOL controls costs effectively, with a strong equity ratio of 64% and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6. Looking ahead, they signal a cautious optimism for recovery in building and construction and a focus on sustainability, while pursuing growth through M&A opportunities.

Quarterly Overview: Declining Sales Amid Challenges

In the recently concluded quarter, HEXPOL reported sales of approximately SEK 5 billion, reflecting a significant drop of 9% compared to the same quarter last year. Particularly concerning for investors, organic sales fell by 7%, influenced by a decrease in volume and lower sales prices. This decline was more pronounced in the U.S. market due to temporary production shutdowns by key automotive manufacturers during the summer. Additionally, negative currency effects amounting to about SEK 170 million exacerbated the situation.

Financial Performance: Update on Profitability

The operating profit for HEXPOL in this quarter was SEK 800 million, resulting in an operating margin of 16.1%. This was lower than both the previous year's quarter and the preceding quarter. The decline in profit margins can be attributed mainly to reduced volumes, which the company could not offset through cost savings in the short term. However, it’s worth noting that despite these obstacles, the equity asset ratio remains robust at 64%, and return on capital is strong at 18.4%.

Sector-Specific Insights: Automotive vs. Non-Automotive

This quarter highlighted the vulnerability of HEXPOL's business as 40% of its total sales are tied to the automotive sector—a sector facing significant headwinds. According to the S&P Global Mobility Report, automotive production in both the U.S. and Europe plummeted by 6% to 7%. Conversely, the building and construction segment showed signs of recovery, reporting slightly improved sales, albeit from a low baseline.

Sustainability Initiatives: Focus on Recycled Materials

Sustainability remains a core component of HEXPOL’s strategy, with a notable example being their almaak facility in Germany, which utilizes 90% recycled materials from post-industrial waste. HEXPOL is well-positioned to meet the upcoming European Union directive mandating a minimum of 25% recycled materials in new passenger cars, reflecting a commitment to sustainability alongside financial performance.

M&A Strategy: Pursuing Growth Opportunities

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) are highlighted as pivotal for HEXPOL's growth strategy. Management remains optimistic about the M&A environment, suggesting that seller expectations may be normalizing. The company is well-positioned financially to pursue additional acquisitions, following the successful integration of Star, which has expanded their capacity in TPE. While specific acquisition multiples vary, they are generally lower than what HEXPOL targets, potentially opening avenues for more strategic growth.

Guidance and Future Outlook: Addressing Challenges and Opportunities

Looking ahead, HEXPOL aims to improve organic growth, recognizing that this area has historically been a challenge. The management expressed intentions to focus on operational efficiency and capitalizing on favorable market conditions within the Building and Construction sector. They also acknowledged the need for rigorous cost control amidst fluctuating demand, especially within the automotive sector. Overall, HEXPOL’s strong cash flow of SEK 803 million and a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.6 provide a solid foundation for navigating near-term challenges while pursuing growth.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Welcome to the HEXPOL Q3 presentation. [Operator Instructions]

Now I will hand the conference over to the CEO, Klas Dahlberg, and CFO, Peter Rosen. Please go ahead.

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining in on the HEXPOL Q3 presentation. I am Klas Dahlberg, and I'm here together with our CFO, Peter Rosen.

If you please turn to Page 2 of the presentation. I will start with a business update. I have an intro from Germany covering recycled material that I would like to share with you. And I will also highlight the importance of our business model. Peter will take you through the financials, and I will summarize the quarter and our focus areas going forward. After that, we are happy to answer your questions.

If you please turn to Page 4, then I will go through the quarter. When looking at demand and sales in the third quarter, demand was down versus Q3 last year mainly affected by lower demand from automotive end customers. S&P Global Mobility Report shows that the U.S. and European automotive production is down some 6% to 7% in Q3. As you know, some 40% of our total sales is to the automotive sector. But saying that, it also means that 60% is nonautomotive.

Sales was also impacted by lower sales prices driven by lower prices on some main raw materials and also by a negative currency effect, and Peter will come back to that. In the quarter, we delivered sales of close to SEK 5 billion and an EBIT of SEK 800 million, giving us a solid margin of 16.1%.

Building and Construction is still low, but we can see a slight increase versus Q3 '23. The fact that demand is down versus Q2, this year is mainly affected by seasonal pattern that we normally see actually related to vacations at end customers, but also somewhat lower underlying demand. Sales prices are sequentially stable, but they have decreased compared to last year, as I mentioned before.

Our focus on sustainability continues. We see a high interest in recycled products, resulting in high number of projects, not least from the automotive industry, where we are well positioned. If you please turn to Page 5. You will see an example how we are able to turn postindustrial waste into a recycled raw material. I visited our company, almaak in Germany some weeks ago. This facility is located 10 kilometers South of Berlin and 90% of all their end products contain recycled materials from post-industrial waste. It's mainly European sourced raw materials, for instance, residual textile from airbag manufacturing.

The production line you see on the picture is one example of how we invested in advanced processing equipment to enable recycling. We are well prepared for the proposed ELV or end-of-life vehicle amendment from EU stipulating the use of up to 25% recycled material for passenger cars.

If you then turn to Page 6. M&A is an important focus area for our growth plans. We look positively on the M&A environment, and we have the financial resources to do more acquisitions, and that is very exciting and also encouraging. Looking into the different business areas, starting with HEXPOL Compounding. As mentioned before, demand was down versus last year in Q3 mainly affected by lower demand from automotive end customers. And this is a result of the macro environment and not so much related to our performance.

The demand in building and construction is up somewhat, and supply chain is stable. Most raw materials see lower prices year-over-year, but sequentially stable, as I mentioned before, and we see a decrease in operating margin driven by lower sales, but still on a solid level.

If we look at HEXPOL Engineered Products. Last week, I visited our facility on Sri Lanka producing wheels and gaskets, 4 facilities all in all, with close to 1,100 employees. I met very skilled teams there focused on quality and sustainability.

Sales for Engineered Products is in line with last year. It's actually slightly up by 1%. Operating profit is somewhat lower, but strong operating margin. Please turn to Page 7. I have now visited some 20 of our 54 facilities and I feel very confident when I see the skill and dedication from our teams, I can confirm that we have a strong culture within HEXPOL. We are committed and we are willing to work hard.

On Page 8, you'll find our business model. You have seen that model many times, but this is also a very strong model, and it's core for our business. With that being said, I have together with our group management team started to investigate the possibility for further growth, focusing on acquisitions, on organic growth, and as well work on efficiency, and we will come back to you with the development.

In the short run, if you look at the lower right side of the model, you find flexible and efficient operations. That means with our decentralized structure, we are ready to adopt to the current business environment, and we are able to scale up or down when necessary. If you please turn to Page 10. It's now time for the financial update, and I will hand over the word to you, Peter, to go through the financials.

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Thank you, Klas. As Klas mentioned, we delivered sales of about SEK 5 billion here in the quarter, which is down some 9% versus the same period last year. And looking at the 9% -- 7% organic sales, organic sales are down 7% in the quarter, while the acquisition of Star added about 1% in sales, and we also saw negative effects of about SEK 170 million here in the quarter.

The lower organic sales are more or less equally driven by somewhat lower volume and somewhat lower sales prices. For the total HEXPOL group, the lower volume comes from the automotive segment. We see relatively a little bit more so in the U.S. than in Europe. And that is because some manufacturers in the U.S. close down production a little bit more than they normally do during the summer period.

Also, the majority of the negative FX effects are related to the U.S. dollar, and that also helps explain why we see a little bit lower or a bigger sales decrease in the U.S. If I can ask you to turn to Page 11, looking at the financial overview. We delivered an EBIT of SEK 800 million in the quarter. The margin came in at 16.1%, which is below what we did the same period last year and also a little bit below Q2 this year. The main reason for this is the lower volume where we in the short run, within the quarter cannot offset with lower costs.

The equity asset ratio remains very high at 64%, and the return on capital also high at 18.4%. We delivered a solid cash flow of SEK 803 million, where EBIT was turned into cash. If I can ask you to turn to Page 12, looking just at the financial highlights for the quarter. SEK 5 billion, down 9% compared to Q3 last year, while the operating profit came in at SEK 800 million and below last year. At the same time, we saw an operating margin at 16.1% here in the quarter. And if I can ask you to turn to Page 13.

[Operator]

We seem to have a technical problem.

We seem to have lost the connection to the speakers. We'll be back shortly.

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Apologies, everyone, we were cut off here with the telephone line. I don't know why. But we are on Page 13. So if we continue, looking at the profit drivers, we see that the lower EBIT is mainly driven by lower sales. We offset some of this with lower OpEx driven by general cost control in the quarter. And just as a reminder, the EBIT is also impacted negatively with some SEK 20 million with -- in negative FX effects.

If I can then ask you to turn to Page 14, taking a look at HEXPOL Compounding, delivered sales of SEK 4.6 billion in the quarter, which is 10% below Q3 last year. As mentioned before, the lower sales are driven by slightly lower demand, negative FX effects and somewhat lower prices compared to the same period last year.

The lower demand is seen with automotive end customers. On a more positive note, we saw higher sales in Building and Construction, although from a low level. It remains to be seen if this is temporary. Operating profit came in at SEK 735 million with a margin of about 16%. If I can ask you to turn to Page 15, looking at Engineered Products. Sales of SEK 365 million in the quarter for Engineered Products, basically in line with last year, with stable development in all product areas.

Operating profit came in at SEK 65 million, basically also in line with last year with a margin of almost 18% negatively affected by smaller items compared to last year. If I can ask you to turn to Page 16, looking at working capital. It's basically in line with Q3 of last year, but also Q2 this year with smaller movements across inventory, receivables and payables. There's no change to the underlying payment terms.

And if I can ask you to turn to Page 17. Looking at the cash flow. We delivered a solid cash flow of SEK 803 million, with investments below depreciation and small movements in working capital. And if I can ask you to turn to Page 18, looking at net debt. It stands at SEK 2.4 billion at the end of the quarter with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.6, and just a reminder that this is after payout of the dividend this year, that included both an ordinary dividend as well as the extra dividend.

All in all, we continue to stand with a very strong financial position, ready for further M&A. And with that being said, I hand over to Klas to summarize the quarter and the presentation.

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

Thank you, Peter. So to summarize the third quarter, we see sales was down, mainly affected, as we have stated by the lower demand from automotive end customers. And I stated already that the S&P report shows that the European and U.S. automotive production is down somewhere 6% to 7% in Q3. Sales was also impacted by lower sales prices, and that was driven by lower prices on some of our main raw materials and also by negative currency by SEK 172 million. .

But still in the quarter, we delivered sales of close to SEK 5 billion and EBIT of SEK 800 million, resulting in a solid margin of 16.1%. We continue to focus on sustainability. I showed you the almaak in Germany. That is a nice example. I think where 90% of all end products contain recycled materials from post industrial waste.

And by that, we are ready to take on the new proposed end-of-life directive from EU. Finally, my key takeaways from the first quarter as CEO of HEXPOL, I would say we have a very solid and strong business model. The factory is decentralized, and we have very capable and motivated local teams. We will, as I said, investigate further growth opportunities for HEXPOL focusing on M&A and organic growth, but also improved efficiency, which is always on our agenda. And by that, we conclude the presentation of the quarter, and we open up for your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]

The next question comes from Henric Hintze from ABG. Please go ahead.

[Henric Hintze, analyst]

This is Henric at ABG. So you wrote in the report that work is underway to review the conditions for organic growth in your various markets. Given that this hasn't been HEXPOL's strongest point, historically, could you elaborate a bit more on what you're looking at here?

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

I would like to say at this stage, I would like to come back to what that means. But all in all, we feel there is, how should I say, room for -- to improve organic growth. That should always be in our DNA to improve that. So -- but what it means, there I have to come back to you.

[Henric Hintze, analyst]

All right. So then maybe diving a bit more into demand. You said it was slightly weaker sequentially in the quarter. Could you give us any more detail on how you perceive demand changing over the quarter? Did it decline, rise, or remain largely flat, and were there any industries or geographies where you saw more of a change during the quarter?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Yes. If we talk about sequentially, so demand coming -- or sales coming from second quarter this year into the third quarter, the majority of that decrease is because of seasonal pattern. So where we see customers, they go on vacation, they close down their production. And since we don't have an order book to produce to, our sales also stopped for that period. What we saw during the summer is one thing they did close down as they normally do. Some close down a little bit more than they, which is normal, and especially in the U.S. . But apart from that, we also saw somewhat lower demand and primarily for automotive.

[Henric Hintze, analyst]

All right. Just one more for me then. You stated that you're also focusing on acquisitions, of course, which you've done historically and that you view the market positively. We've been hearing from both you and others that acquisition prices have started to normalize, but what has prevented you from closing any acquisitions so far this year?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Two -- a couple of things. One is that it has taken some time for prices to -- between buyers and sellers to sort of balance themselves. Secondly, when we look at acquisitions, most of potential sellers are families, family -- they are family-owned businesses, and those processes take time, take more time than if you would buy from, for example, private equity seller.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Joen Sundmark from SEB.

[Joen Sundmark, analyst]

Hello, and thank you, Klas and Peter. So first of all, beginning with a question, sort of related to autos, but if you were to look beyond that, where do you see weakness from other markets? And this is any change if you compare Q3 to Q2, for instance, in any other market than autos?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

No, it's primarily within automotive. There are a couple of movements back and forth, but those are normal movements. So it's primarily automotive.

[Joen Sundmark, analyst]

Okay. Very clear. And then second question is sort of, you mentioned a more positive demand from building and construction, do you mostly refer this to a year-to-year basis? Or how the demand level you would compare that to Q2, for instance?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

It's -- when we say we see an increase, it's quarter-over-quarter. So Q3 this year compared to Q3 last year. Q2 to Q3 is more difficult to compare because of the seasonal pattern. So we'll have to wait and see if it continues. But quarter-over-quarter, we do see an uptick in Building and Construction.

[Joen Sundmark, analyst]

Okay, and then final question. The group share of sales from almaak that you mentioned, the recycled plastics, is that increasing? Or how do you see that going forward now in this quarter?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Here and now and in the short run, their share would probably remain fairly stable to where it is today .

[Operator]

The next question comes from Gustav Berneblad from Nordea.

[Gustav Berneblad, analyst]

It's Gustav from Nordea. Just to start off here with automotive. When you look at your automotive exposure, do you see the risk of your customers or the Tier 1 suppliers sort of absorbing some of the weaker demand from the automotive OEMs and that this end market can sort of impact you more negatively going forward?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Gustav, I'm a little bit uncertain if I understand the question right. Could you repeat it?

[Gustav Berneblad, analyst]

Yes. Basically, if you see that your customers are absorbing some of the weaker demand from automotive, meaning that there might be a lag between -- before we see it impacting your financials, so to say?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Broadly speaking, we don't think so because we don't see stock levels increasing, decreasing in the short run. So we think it's fairly sort of quick, but I mean it has to go through the value chain, but we don't see the Tier 1s absorbing much.

[Gustav Berneblad, analyst]

Okay. That's clear. And then maybe if we jump to given that we are seeing so much or quite significant lower volumes here, especially automotive. But what are you doing exactly to protect the margins here going forward?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

In the short run, we, of course, look very much at the production planning to see that we are planning our production according to the demand that we see, which will -- which has impact on how we staff our shifts. Then in the medium and long term, we're also looking at, for example, OpEx to have a very strict cost control. And then in the longer term, I think we need to come back on as Klas mentioned on looking at the total -- overall efficiency for the group. I mean we mentioned before that -- I mean, we will always review the footprints.

[Gustav Berneblad, analyst]

Yes. Okay. Perfect. That's fine. And then just the last one. I mean, we have seen a couple of quarters now with negative organic growth. And obviously, it looks like we are seeing increased headwinds, especially in some areas. But are you seeing sort of -- are you seeing competition sort of struggling a bit more? Are you seeing bankruptcies among your competitors or anything?

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

No, we couldn't say that, that is happening actually. That -- but you are familiar with the fact that some of our customers tend to go for in-sourcing of compounding. But when it comes to the competition, we don't see that pattern, no.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Douglas Lindahl from DNB Markets.

[Douglas Lindahl, analyst]

Klas and Peter, Douglas here from DNB. I have a few questions. Just circling back to your commentary on the construction activity looking a bit or demand at least looking a bit better. I was just curious if you could give a bit more color on that, also towards the end of the quarter any specific geography you're referring to?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Fairly even during the quarter, and also looking at the geographies, we see uptick in the Americas, but we also do see it to a certain extent in Europe as well. But I mean it's a quarter. It's positive that we will see the uptick. I think we need to see going forward to see if it remains positive, at least in this quarter, it's positive.

[Douglas Lindahl, analyst]

It's a bit too early to call the trend maybe.

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

Yes.

[Douglas Lindahl, analyst]

Okay. I hear you loud and clear on the M&A track record. I guess that remains a top priority in terms of capital allocation and how you think about that in the context of your strong balance sheet here.

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Yes, for sure.

[Douglas Lindahl, analyst]

Okay. And on the sort of organic growth efforts, would be interesting to hear that later. But just to start off, is there any sort of end market where you feel like you're lacking exposure currently, some sort of segments you feel is particularly interesting.

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

No.

[Peter Rosén, executive]

No. Not where we're lacking. We would like to do more in some, but not lacking.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Andrés Castaños-Mollor from Berenberg.

[Andres Castanos-Mollor, analyst]

Can you please break down the 9% organic growth between prices and volumes, what was roughly the mix between the two.

[Peter Rosén, executive]

You mean compared to Q3 last year?

[Andres Castanos-Mollor, analyst]

Just what is the largest contributor, yes, year-on-year exactly, 9% year-on-year .

[Peter Rosén, executive]

I mean, roughly, if -- we're down 9%, 7% of that is organic sales. And of the 7% it's roughly split between -- evenly split between volume and pricing. And the rest from the 7% is the negative FX effects.

[Andres Castanos-Mollor, analyst]

Perfect. That's very clear. I also wanted to follow up on the integration of Star, the TPE that you bought in the U.S.A. last year, and they had some spare capacity. And I wanted to ask about that. How are you being successful to grow volumes there and to relocate production to that site, et cetera? Just an update on the integration 1 year after the deal.

[Peter Rosén, executive]

Yes. I would say the Star is fully integrated into HEXPOL, then when I look -- when we talk about allocating volumes, that's an ongoing work. And I mean we allocate volumes where it makes most sense. So that isn't finished. That will be an ongoing review on where do we want to produce most efficiently. But the integration in itself, I would say, is completed.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Carl Deijenberg from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

[Carl Deijenberg, analyst]

So 2 questions from my side. If I could start on M&A. I appreciate the comments here that's increasingly coming into focus for you again in order to grow. But I was just curious also given that you also said that, let's say, seller expectations have been a little bit too elevated and/or you seem to be more in line on the discussions right now, kind of multiples, are we talking about generally speaking? And then I guess we would look at HEXPOL longer term or before the pandemic as well, I think you were acquiring on average, let's say, 0.8 to 0.9x sales. If we exclude, let's say, transformative acquisitions. Are these multiples, anything that you're seeing right now? Or is that level something that is for the past basically.

[Peter Rosén, executive]

I think part of the answer is, it depends a little bit on the company. So as we've mentioned before, if we go for a specialized TP or TP compounders, they most likely have a higher multiple than if we would go for rubber compounder because the growth is normally higher. So it can differ depending on the company and the product offering that they have.

But generally, it's -- I mean, in generally speaking, the multiples are below our own. But if we go back and compare to, let's say, ten years ago, yes, then multiples are up. I mean, valuations are overall higher than history. So a bit higher than historically, and then it differs depending on which company we're looking at. But in most cases, below our own.

[Carl Deijenberg, analyst]

Yes. Fair enough. And where you're looking now? Is that primarily within TP or rubber or combination of both?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

A combination of both.

[Carl Deijenberg, analyst]

Very well. Then I had a follow-up also on the questions with regard to the pricing. I mean, I appreciate the comments you're talking about fairly unchanged pricing here Q-on-Q but down year-on-year. But has there been any change going into Q4 here given the demand that you've been stating here, for example, in automotive? Or is that fairly steady state here also in the month of October, you would say?

[Peter Rosén, executive]

I would say fairly stable.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Johan Dahl from Danske Bank.

[Johan Dahl, analyst]

Just a question Klas there. You talked about visiting 50 sites in the system. And I appreciate on M&A-led growth, organic growth, you'll come back to us. But are there any sort of relevant impressions from your analysis so far with regards to the assets that you have visited which appeared to be sort of the main levers to pull to improve profitability and growth. I mean, is it well invested in your view? How is collaboration between these units, and also on the capacity utilization, if you have anything out there. Just curious if you could say something.

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

All right. So when it comes to the investment level, I would say we are well invested. I mean we have the equipment as such and so on, is on a very good level. So that is not at all an issue, I would say. When it comes to collaboration, I would say that is in a way in our DNA. But still, I think that could be -- we could increase that also between the regions, let's say. But we do have a collaboration between the units, especially when it comes to things like supply management and so on.

[Johan Dahl, analyst]

And on capacity utilization. Is that something that is becoming a sort of a top priority in the group? Or is it something that you always look at.

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

No, that is not -- I would not say that, that is a top priority when it comes to the utilization. That is up to each unit to make sure they are on the right level.

[Johan Dahl, analyst]

Got you. Just finally, I mean, we touched on it before on the call. But what -- I mean, given the European OEMs on -- especially on EVs, how they are being squeezed at the moment, quite obviously, how is that feeding through the value chain and impacting your business apart from the fact that it's lower volumes?

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

Well, to be honest, I think that is the case, the lower volumes because they ask for the same precision when it comes to quality and so forth. So there is no change in that sense. But it's mostly lower demand that is what we see.

[Operator]

There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.

[Klas Dahlberg, executive]

All right. Thank you very much. Again, I would like to thank you for joining in on this call, and we look forward to connect again after Q4. So thank you very much, and all the best to you all. Thank you. .