Enad Global 7 AB (publ)

STO:EG7

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Ludvig Andersson, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to this Q1 earnings call with EG7. My name is Ludvig Andersson and I will be your moderator during this call. Together with me to present, we have the company's acting CEO, Ji Ham and Deputy CEO and CFO, Fredrik Ruden. After the presentation, we will have a short Q&A session. So please feel free to e-mail your questions to the company's Investor Relations e-mail.

But now without any further ado over to you, Ji.

[Ji Ham, executive]

Thanks, Ludvig. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Let us begin the presentation. Next slide, please. Here, we have our key performance figures for Q1. Net revenue came in at SEK 382 million, adjusted EBITDA of SEK 62 million and we ended the quarter with a solid cash position of SEK 467 million. Q1 was a relatively quiet quarter for us. We had no major content or product releases planned. Also no major My Singing Monsters boost in our figures this quarter. Compared to Q1 2023, net revenue was lower by 33%. Adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 16% this quarter, representing a variance of 17% year-over-year. MSM settling down at a lower level was the main difference, contributing to nearly 80% of the variance for both net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin.

Secondly, Piranha's latest DLC came out 2 months later this quarter, contributing to 16% of the variance in net revenues and 19% in adjusted EBITDA margin and softer results for our Service business units made up the remaining difference. Year-over-year comparison for the group is not always going to be straightforward. Our product release timing has variability quarter-to-quarter as well as year-over-year. As a result, aligning quarters for comparison is not always going to be appropriate. There will be peaks and valleys in our results along the way, subject to content and product pipeline. As illustrated in this quarter, we are aiming to get to the scale where we can smooth out our performance, but not there today, and it's going to take some time. Next slide, please.

Here, we have our adjusted EBITDA contribution by business unit. Units in the Gaming segment performed as expected. Big Blue Bubble contributed SEK 38 million. The large variance from SEK 133 million delivered last year, but should be no surprise as it came down from its viral peak. Daybreak continues to perform consistently contributing SEK 42 million and Piranha delivered SEK 3 million lower results this year, once again, due to the difference in timing of its DLC release. Service units are facing some challenges. The market has been very tough. Toadman and Petrol, both highly dependent on third-party business were impacted the most and generated losses for the period. Fireshine was essentially breakeven. Physical distribution also under pressure, but then benefit from its back catalog as well as in the publishing business, which is ramping in the right direction.

Based on the softer numbers for the Service businesses and also the potential risk for longer-term market weakness. We have made some adjustments to our business. Costs were reduced at Toadman and Petrol headcount reduction by 45. This will result in approximately SEK 35 million of annual savings. And the market volatility remains, and it's not clear how long it's going to sustain. So we will stay proactive in managing our risk and profitability, continue to evaluate trends and adjust more as needed. Next slide, please.

My Singing Monster has largely settled around a new solid level. The chart on the left shows the MAU trends from January 2021 through March 2024. December '22 was the peak MAU at 2.6 million players at the height of its virality. As of March 2024, the game had around 1.1 million MAU, still more than double 2021 levels of less than 0.5 million MAU. The chart on the right compares Q1 net revenue for 2022, '23 and '24, Q1 '23 was the all-time peak with SEK 218 million of net revenue. Q1 2024 came in at SEK 69 million. This current level is more than 2.5x Q1 '22 level, which is nice. And based on the current trend, we expect MSM to stabilize around this nice level going forward. Next slide, please.

Here we have our notable content release schedule for the year. We're still on track for our full year 2024 target. We want to emphasize that the first quarter results should not be seen as the indication for our full year. Our content schedule is more backloaded this year. MechWarrior 5: Clans, our biggest product for 2024, is releasing around Q4. The table here highlights our notable content and products for the year. Releases are categorized into small, medium or large based on the overall size of revenue expectations. As shown, Q1 was fairly light with smaller content drops. The volume picks up with a couple of medium-sized content updates in Q2 and Q3 for Live Service games, the MechWarrior 5: Clans is slated for release towards Q4.

Clans is expected to be the largest revenue contributor for the year. Based on our current plan, Q2, Q3 results are expected to be steady with Q4 results, seeing a meaningful uptick with Clans release. And the key takeaway here is that our performance won't be linear quarter-to-quarter. Typically, we do show more seasonal upside in Q4. But this year, we expect it to be more amplified with Clans coming out in Q4 resulting in heavier backload to our overall output for the year in terms of revenue and profitability. Next slide, please.

We are in a transition period. Our position today is solid, excess liquidity, steady cash flows and no credit risk. The market conditions are challenging, but we are operating with no real concerns. We have a solid foundation. We get to focus on our long-term plans without much distractions at this time. As for where we're headed, we communicated our strategy and long-term plan last September. We remain confident in our plan, and we aim to deliver SEK 3 billion of net revenues and SEK 1 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2026. It's going to take a few quarters to get there. During this transition time, we expect to maintain continuing profitability and cash flows. We're going to have new product releases also to increase our performance. But until we get to scale, there will be continuing variability.

Our results are dependent on the timing of content releases looking at our business with a short 3-month windows are not the best snapshot of our business at this time, more relevant would be a broader or longer time horizon, maybe a 12-month window that allows to look at a broader pipeline of products that we're releasing until we get to scale. Our plan ultimately is to get to that nice level of predictability and smooth out the performance, but this will take some time. So until then, there could be variability quarter-to-quarter and year-over-year, subject to our product release timing. Next slide, please. Fredrik?

[Fredrik Ruden, executive]

Thank you, Ji. Next slide, please. So the net revenue in Q1 was SEK 382 million, corresponding to a decline of 33% with an EBITDA margin of 16%. And the decline from last year is mainly explained by the well-communicated expected decline in activity in the game My Singing Monsters which contributed with SEK 69 million in net revenue, a reduction by SEK 149 million from the SEK 218 million reported for in Q1 '23. Given that Big Blue Bubble had a 61% margin in Q1 last year. This drop also largely explain the low margin for the quarter. And as Ji pointed out, in addition to the decline in activity in My Singing Monsters, product release timing and the ongoing industry weakness also impacted our results adversely. Over the last 12 months, net revenue amounted to SEK 1.855 billion, with EBITDA margin at 22%. This make fairly well to our full year '24 guidance. Our more predictable part of our business, including our Live Game revenue generated SEK 271 million corresponding to 71% of the total net revenue in Q1. This has been above 50% of net revenue in the past 2 years and a quarter. Next slide, please.

Daybreak is the largest contributor to the group net revenue and the largest contributor to our more predictable revenue base generating SEK 188 million in net revenue and SEK 42 million in adjusted EBITDA. This corresponds to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22%. As already said, Big Blue Bubble contributed with SEK 69 million and SEK 38 million in adjusted EBITDA, corresponding to 56% adjusted EBITDA margin. Next slide, please.

Piranha continues to release new relevant content to the MechWarrior franchise from start of Q2. This business is focusing in delivering MechWarrior Clans later this year. Piranha contributed with a net revenue of SEK 21 million and adjusted EBITDA of SEK 3 million corresponding to a low 16% adjusted EBITDA margin. Toadman's net revenue came in at SEK 17 million, which is a growth from SEK 6 million last year, corresponds to a strong growth year-over-year. But despite the growth and due to the continued industry challenges, several of the expected new work for hire contracts for Toadman have either been terminated or postponed. And as Ji said in conjunction to this restructuring program with ambition to reach profitability was initiated in April. Given this, the adjusted EBITDA came in at minus SEK 6 million. Next slide, please.

As shown in this chart and also pointed out several times, both these companies are fairly volatile. Fireshine's pipeline remains solid over the next coming 12 months, but will vary between quarters due to scheduled release dates. The company generated SEK 46 million in net revenue with a small positive adjusted EBITDA. The quarter was rather driven by back-catalog sales instead of new releases, and this is a trend that will continue into the second quarter. Petrol is highly dependent on third parties game releases, which is negatively impacted by today's game industry challenges. Due to that and due to our expectations on the future, management has initiated a restructuring program with the aim to get back to a more sustainable situation for the company. Petrol generated SEK 40 million in net revenue and a loss of SEK 6 million. Next slide, please.

Our financial health remains strong with ample liquidity, strong balance sheet and an underlying portfolio that continues to generate predictable cash flows. This gives that we can execute on our long-term plans with limited dependencies on third parties. The cash box by end of the first quarter was SEK 467 million, and that's close to the same as starting the quarter. The operating cash flow is negatively impacted by SEK 69 million due to an accrued tax payment in Canada, following the strong year of Big Blue Bubble. Adjusted for that, the operating cash flow is SEK 55 million, meaning that the business has a strong cash generation. The first quarter's cash flow includes operational investments amounting to SEK 54 million. And then consists of SEK 20 million for Daybreak's Cold Iron project, SEK 90 million for MechWarrior Clans, SEK 50 million for Fireshine publishing activity.

And the investing activity row, as you can see here, is positive by SEK 7 million and the explanation to that is that it includes SEK 61 million of sale of this noncore IP that we did in Q1, which balancing out the Canadian tax payment. We have also paid the first dividend of SEK 20 million to the shareholders, and the next dividend will be paid in Q2. Next slide, please.

The net revenue over the last 12 months amounted to SEK 1.855 billion, corresponding to a decrease of 9% driven by the decline in My Singing Monster, which now likely is getting closer to its new normal level. The last 12 months adjusted EBITDA came in at SEK 414 million corresponding to a margin of 22%. The 9,500 game industry layoffs in Q1 is close to the full year '23 figure which indicate that the game industry continues to transform during the year. At the same time, the market is expected to grow 3% CAGR up to '26.

We have, over the past couple of years, prepared our business to be operated more conservatively and sound. We have also initiated a few new growth initiatives that we monitor and evaluate closely. We see great potential in them and believe they will contribute strongly to our anticipated 16% CAGR growth up to '26. Our financial health remains strong with solid liquidity, strong balance sheet and an underlying portfolio that continues to generate predictable cash flows. Our financial strength allows us to continue focus on executing against our targets of SEK 3 billion in net revenue and SEK 1 billion in adjusted EBITDA in '26.

Over to you, Ji.

[Ji Ham, executive]

Thanks, Fredrik. Next slide, please. Next slide. Okay. So in summary, Q1 was a quiet quarter for us in terms of content release, our results reflected this. My Singing Monster's big boost from last year also has calmed down as expected. And the gaming market downturn has impacted our Service business units as it's impacting many other peers throughout the industry. However, we feel very confident about our outlook for the year, it's still intact. Q1's quieter performance is not indicative for the full year. Several of our major content updates and MechWarrior 5: Clans is coming out later this year. While market challenges pose some risks, especially for Service units, we do have confidence in our ability to deliver against our guidance.

In conclusion, we are in a nice and stable position. We have a solid foundation with ample liquidity, stable cash flows. No real concerns for the group as it relates to the market situation. This allows us to continue focusing and executing against our long-term plan and strategy. So that's the conclusion of the presentation, and we'll now transition to a Q&A session.

[Ludvig Andersson, executive]

Thank you very much Ji and Fredrik. First question from [indiscernible] along a few others. Any update on the uplifting process?

[Ji Ham, executive]

Fredrik, do you want to take that one?

[Fredrik Ruden, executive]

Not really. We are continuing according to plan, and what we have communicated is that we aim to uplift during 2024. And we see no risk that we will not be able to do that.

[Ludvig Andersson, executive]

A question from Hjalmar to Redeye. Can you please elaborate and share some light on the full year guidance and the margin?

[Ji Ham, executive]

Yes. So we -- our guidance for the year of SEK 1.8 billion of net revenues and the 22% to 25% target adjusted EBITDA margin. So we continue to strive towards that based on how we're performing. First quarter was a little bit softer, but overall, conservative forecasting as we put our guidance out and as how we're progressing, we still expect to be able to meet those targets.

[Ludvig Andersson, executive]

Any risk for delays in MechWarrior 5: Clans release, how is the competition looking from other game releases in the same period?

[Ji Ham, executive]

Yes. I mean, timing-wise, we like the window that we are targeting. It's a very unique title. It's obviously a branded title with MechWarrior IP, it's a one of a kind and the quality and the progress the team has been making at Piranha, we're very happy about. So we do expect the game to perform quite well. And in terms of our overall expectations for unit sales, it's in line with how the prior game performed over its lifetime.

[Ludvig Andersson, executive]

Regarding H1Z1 moving into full production, who will work on the development and the budget. Can you please elaborate on that?

[Ji Ham, executive]

Yes. The budget, it's something that we communicated during the Capital Markets Day. So it's within that middle market AA range, which we communicated as between $20 million and $30 million so average of $25 million. Of course, as we go into more planning, we'll have additional details regarding what the overall budget could be. I will say it's a little too early for that given where we are. So for now, I think the estimation around USD 25 million development budget is a reasonable estimate.

[Ludvig Andersson, executive]

Can you share some more on the -- how the game is moving into full production and who will work on the development of the game as well?

[Ji Ham, executive]

Yes. I mean, it's not quite a full production yet. It's still through pre-production. There's additional planning going on with the staff at Daybreak. We were able to bring on a talented lead designer for the project with significant experience on survival, [indiscernible], et cetera. We do have to ramp around the team. But at the same time, we're still at that stage of still planning around the overall concept and what we want to ultimately produce. So it's going to take a little more time, but it's going to be a combination of Daybreak's staff with external help that we may be able to bring on.

[Ludvig Andersson, executive]

Can you please share some more light on the cost savings in Toadman and Petrol?

[Ji Ham, executive]

Yes, it's headcount reduction. So Toadman headcount reduction was the majority of the overall reduction in that 45 person headcount. Petrol did pull back slightly as well. But overall, the estimated annual savings from 45 people being reduced is about SEK 35 million that we expect to save on a full year annualized basis, and we should be able to start realizing that savings from second half fully of this year.

[Ludvig Andersson, executive]

Thank you very much. I think that was all the questions that we received. So thank you very much Ji and Fredrik, for the presentation. And thank you to everyone who tuned in. We wish you a great day. Thank you very much.

[Ji Ham, executive]

Great. Thank you.

[Fredrik Ruden, executive]

Thank you all.

[Ji Ham, executive]

Take care.