Bravida Holding AB

STO:BRAV

Earnings Call Analysis

Navigating Challenging Markets

In the recent earnings call, the management of Bravida reflected on the company's performance amid challenging market conditions, particularly in southern Sweden. The quarter saw a marginal decrease in sales overall, although the service segment experienced an 8% increase. Importantly, organic growth declined by 3%, while growth from acquisitions contributed positively at 5%. This mixed performance underscores the complexities of the current economic landscape.

Margin Pressures and Strategic Adjustments

The company's EBITDA margin faced pressures, which was reported at 4.5%, and when adjusted for one-off costs, it stood slightly better at 4.8%. The management acknowledged that this downturn was primarily influenced by ongoing issues in Denmark and weaker market conditions in southern Sweden. There were also one-off costs totaling SEK 19 million, impacting overall profitability. In a proactive move, Bravida is closing around 20 cost units, including five branches, in response to failing to achieve acceptable profit margins in a declining market.

Focus on Cost Efficiency and Future Outlook

In light of these closures, Bravida is intensifying its focus on cost reduction to enhance efficiency and ensure profitability. Management emphasized a strategy prioritizing margin over volume, reflecting their commitment to navigating through tough market conditions. They indicated that while these changes might present immediate challenges, they are vital for positioning the company for better margins in the future.

Geographic Performance Disparities

Notably, performance varied significantly across regions. Bravida's operations in Norway and Finland showed strong results, with notable margin improvements. This highlights the importance of location-specific strategies, as the southern region of Sweden struggles in comparison. The north of Sweden also demonstrated robust performance, showcasing Bravida's regional strengths.

Anticipating Growth Within New Challenges

Despite the current struggles, the management remains optimistic about a market recovery in the future, although they cautioned that underlying demand may remain low for a while. They did not specify exact timelines for recovery, but the sentiment indicates potential stabilization later.

Questions on Future Sales and Expectations

During the Q&A, questions were raised regarding potential sales losses from the scaling-down efforts. Management estimates a loss of approximately SEK 250 million in sales, with indicators suggesting this could rise to around SEK 300 million for the full year. However, they believe that some volume could potentially be redirected to other branches, although the net effect of these changes remains uncertain.

Conclusion and Investor Considerations

For investors, the key takeaways from this earnings call are Bravida's strategic retreat from unprofitable regions, a continued focus on margin improvement, and strong performance in certain geographical areas. While the restructuring may lead to short-term sales losses, the company remains committed to adapting to market realities, which could yield a more profitable organization in the future. Close attention should be paid to their upcoming financial report on February 11 and the interim report in May for further insights into their recovery path.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this presentation of our Q3 report 2024, and ours means Bravida. And as usual and always, it's myself, Mattias, CEO, who will take you through this presentation together with...

[Åsa Neving, executive]

Asa Neving, CFO.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

So again, warm welcome to this presentation, and we start directly with the Q3 highlights. Really, really strong cash conversion. Cash flow improves a lot in the quarter, which is fantastic. Otherwise, we have flat growth, which is pretty much as expected as earlier communicated. Service is growing with 8%. Organic growth is minus 3%. The order intake is down with 12% mainly because of that we are very strict in our project selection, but also, of course, due to the soft market demand we see, especially in Finland and the south part of Sweden.

Order backlog is still on very high levels. We are comfortable with the size and the margins in the order backlog. There are some differences if we compare some geographies, some regions, branches, et cetera, but that is always the case. But overall, a very strong backlog with good margins. The order backlog decreases during the quarter except for Denmark. The margin is around -- or is 4.5%. If we adjust for some one-off cost, we are actually at 4.8% compared to 5.4% last year, and that is primarily affected by the operational changes we're doing in Denmark and the weak demand we see in the south part of Sweden.

Happy to see that both Finland and Norway are improving their margins and also that we are having a very good performance in the north part of Sweden and stable performance in the Stockholm area of Sweden as well. We have some costs for changes in the organization, one-offs, both in Denmark and south part of Sweden. They are adding up to SEK 19 million in one-offs costs for the quarter, and that is approximately 0.3% units on the margin.

Norway's margin is up to 5.7% and that is including the big acquisition of Thunestvedt that we did last year, and the Thunestvedt acquisition is going due to the plan as well. So positive development in Finland and also the same in Finland (sic) [ Norway ]. So very well done from the Finnish and the Norwegian organizations.

Strong cash flow, as I mentioned in the beginning, SEK 193 million compared to minus SEK 212 million last year, an improvement with around SEK 400 million, and cash conversion at 134%. Fantastic numbers. And also happy to say that the accidents which were actually leading to sick leave is declining as well. We're improving that number with 17%.

The bridge. If we look at the sales last year compared to this quarter, we see, as expected, negative organic growth around SEK 200 million minus. We are adding some SEK 400 million from M&A and then we have some currency effects as well, minus SEK 148 million. And that takes us to the SEK 6.575 billion in sales. Continue to grow from acquisitions. A small drop in the organic, but I think that is showing stability. We also said that 8% growth is coming from the Service business, which creates a good stability in this market conditions, of course.

If we look at EBITA, 4.5% this year compared to 5.4%, improved margin in Finland and Norway, as I said. We also communicated earlier this year that we will struggle the first 3 quarters in Denmark with the margin, and that is also the case. If we adjust for the one-offs in Denmark, we have black numbers even in the third quarter. And now -- from now on and going forward, we will see an improvement in the margin in the Danish business as well.

Cost efficiency measures is done, and we are doing that all the time, but this quarter, we have done in south part of Sweden and Denmark. But we also continue to do that to adjust to the market conditions, but also to improve our internal efficiency. And that is something we're doing not only to adjust to the market or improve the market condition. The underlying reason we are doing this is, of course, to improve the margin going forward.

Next slide is showing the order intake, and there is a seasonality the order intake. Q3 is normally the weakest quarter of the year, and we are down 12% this quarter compared to last year. And that is very much depending on loss in the installation volumes, but also that we are very selective what kind of business we are bringing into the order backlog going forward as well.

Said that, the order backlog remains on high level with healthy margins. So we are confident that we can continue to deliver in the coming quarters as well, and also wait till we get the right type of business. So we are not stressed about the order situation. We have a strong order backlog.

The ESG reporting. 34% of all 8,800 vehicles is now electrical driven. The change in CO2 emissions from vehicles is down 13% compared to last year. And the injuries, accidents, sick leave compared -- depending on accidents and injuries is down 17%, which is really, really good. We are now below our group target in Sweden and Norway. We have still some work to do in Denmark and Finland, but that is high on our agenda. So we hope that we can continue to improve this number going forward as well.

Acquisitions, still strong pipeline. We are a bit more cautious now because of the market conditions, of course. It's even more important today to buy the right type of companies where we can see scale advantages, where we can make sure that 1 plus 1 is more than 2. We've done 9 acquisitions so far this year, adding around SEK 0.5 billion in sales. And we will continue to work with M&A, of course, going forward. We have the balance sheet of doing that. But again, it's important to do the right type of acquisitions.

So by that, I hand over to Asa, who will take you through the countries. So you are...

[Åsa Neving, executive]

Thank you, Mattias. And as we always do, we start with Sweden. And Sweden had a flat growth in the quarter, ending up at SEK 3 billion. And that is SEK 10.3 billion year-to-date. The organic growth was negative minus 3%, but that was compensated by growth from acquisitions by 3%. The EBITA was SEK 193 million versus SEK 208 million, and that means that we had an EBITA margin declining at 6.3% versus 6.8%. That is year-to-date 5.7%. And the decline is due to, as Mattias said, a weaker market in the southern part of Sweden, where we're adjusting now accordingly. As Mattias also said, we have a transformation program ongoing. We are reducing personnel and we are merging branches and regions. We also have taken a restructuring cost of SEK 10 million this quarter, and that is roughly 30 basis points on the margin. But except for the southern regions, the Swedish business performs -- the other part of the Swedish business performs better than last year.

Order intake was negative minus 28%, ending up at SEK 2.2 billion, and that is, as we said, due to the Swedish weaker demand in the southern part. And we are being very selective now when we're taking on projects. We don't want to get any projects that will cause us troubles in the future. So we're being selective. We also have no larger projects this quarter as we had last year's third quarter. And some timing effect. We did have a good order intake in Q2 this year. So order backlog at plus 5% year-on-year.

Moving on to Norway, where the growth in sales was minus 2% in SEK, but in local currency, we had a growth of 5%. So we had some currency effect there. So ending up at SEK 1.3 billion net sales versus SEK 1.3 billion last year as well. Year-to-date figures was SEK 4.5 billion. The growth came from acquisitions. There was 9% of acquisition and minus 5% negative organic growth.

EBITA at SEK 73 billion versus SEK 69 billion. We had a positive improvement in the EBITA margin, 5.7% versus 5.2% last year. And that is year-to-date a margin of 5.4%. And so we are very happy to see the improvement in the Norwegian business. And even though they have included Thunestvedt, which is going according to plan but diluting the margin with roughly 20 basis points, they are performing very well.

Order intake at minus 13%. We also had some currency effect here. So it's minus 7% in local currency. Also here, market is very tough, so we are being selective when taking on new projects. Order backlog year-on-year minus 26%.

Moving on to Denmark, where we had a growth in sales of minus 4%, a little bit less in local currency, minus 1%. So we're ending up at SEK 1.6 billion versus SEK 1.7 billion last year. That is then SEK 5 billion year-to-date. The organic growth was minus 1% and the growth from acquisition was 0. We haven't done any acquisitions in Denmark.

EBITA minus SEK 7 million versus SEK 58 million last year. That is SEK 12 million year-to-date. And the decrease in EBITA margin is minus 0.4%. And this is, as we have communicated, due to losses and production in low margin projects in 3 of our 8 regions.

The new management is in place. So a transformation program is ongoing. We're also here taking some restructuring costs of SEK 9 million in the quarter, and we expect to see improved margins in Q4. Order intake is SEK 2 billion, so it's plus 18%. And the order backlog plus 19% year-on-year.

Finland has a strong growth in sales at 20%, and that's even a little bit more in local currencies, so 22%, ending up at SEK 646 million versus SEK 539 million last quarter. That is SEK 1.9 billion year-to-date. The EBITA is improving to SEK 33 million versus SEK 13 million. I'm very happy to see the EBITA margin improving to 5.1% versus 2.5% last year. And the EBITA margin year-to-date is 3.8%. The improvement in the EBITA margin is coming from the installation business -- improved installation business, and also a change in the sales mix, where we have more service, which is a bit more profitable.

The order intake decreased by 11% to SEK 452 million. It's a little bit less in local currency, it's roughly minus 8%. So I'm very happy to see the good performance in Finland and Norway.

That was our country. So if you move on to our financing and cash flow situation. And if you look in the middle, you can see that we have a really strong operating cash flow. In the quarter, we had SEK 193 million compared to minus SEK 212 million last quarter. And as you can see, the year-to-date figures is strong SEK 1.1 billion. Last year was a weak cash flow year of minus SEK 18 million year-to-date. But also if we look at the cash flow now and compare it with other historical years, it is strong.

The strong cash flow is driven by an improved net working capital that we are working really hard on. We are working with good payment plans and front-loaded payments plans as well as prepayments. And this is not only because we want to have a good cash flow, it's very much also a risk mitigation now when the market is tougher and many companies are financially unstable. So then it's always better to have a net positive cash flow in the project that we are producing on.

Cash conversion also improved to a strong 134%. Net debt remains low. As you can see on the left hand side, we have a net debt to EBITA ratio of 1.2. We still have in our balance sheets 3 larger unpaid receivables that we have talked about before. That's 2 Danish outstanding receivables on roughly DKK 550 million and 1 Norwegian contract on NOK 440 million. And this -- one of the Danish one and the Norwegian one is supposed to be sold next year in 2025, and the last Danish one we will have to wait until it goes up to arbitration in 2027.

And then we have a financing program that hasn't changed. We have an RCF of SEK 2.5 billion. We have commercial papers of SEK 1.5 million and EUR 50 million. And then we have a 3-year term loan of SEK 500 million.

I think by that, I will hand over to you, Mattias.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Thank you, Asa. Thank you so much. And I will try to say something about the market and the market outlook. And I think we all wonder when it's going to change, if it has changed, if it's going to be improved market or vice versa. And what we think is that we still see an overall stable demand for Service, and that is also shown in the quarter where we have a plus 8% growth in Service.

There are some challenges in installation, and that will continue for a while. There are some variations between the geographies. I said before that in -- if you take from Stockholm in Sweden and going north, it's stable. It's weaker in south part of Sweden, a bit weaker in Finland, quite stable in Denmark and Norway, I would say.

Said that, we see some positive signs in investments for the project market like infrastructure, industry, defense facilities and civil engineering, and that will provide business opportunities for a company like Bravida, who are in many different segments, who are able to take care of projects in a slightly bigger scale, et cetera. But said that, we will -- we have a strong order backlog and we will continue our focus on being very project selective. We will stay close to that strategy, continue to focus on our cost control across all projects, and margin over volume is more important than ever.

And we still continue seeing attractive pipeline of acquisitions opportunities going forward. It's more about our own prioritization about what kind of deals we want to do. This pipeline is strong, maybe stronger than it has been for the past 2 years, but we are very thorough -- cautious about what we are doing to use the balance sheet in the best possible way.

When we are discussing about the market, I think we have said in the report that we will see a challenging market in the beginning of '25 as well. But the market will turn at some point. And when it does, then we are in a good situation and position to benefit from that change, of course. But we can't really see it yet.

The financial targets. You all know that we have a margin target above 7%, which is a bit challenging for the moment. But our highest ambition and everything we do every day is focused on reaching the 7%. We won't do it this year, as you understand. And let's see when the market turns. '25 will probably a year of transformation as well due to the weak start of '25. But then in '26, we will be at least very close to the target. Our ambition is to reach the margin target in '26.

Otherwise, the other 4 targets we are actually over delivering upon the last years. Cash conversion is really, really strong for the moment and above the target for moment. The net debt is below now and has been for a long while. Sales growth has been above 5% for a while. It's not that in this quarter, but it has been before. And then we haven't discussed the dividend for next year, but that is coming up in the spring. And we still have a strong balance sheet. And so far, since we listed Bravida in 2015, we have been delivering on that target as well.

So that was the financial targets. If we should summarize the quarter, the sales decreased marginally; Service, 8% up; organic growth, as we have guided for and said, it's down with 3%. We still see growth from acquisitions with 5%. And as expected, the EBITA margin is affected by the challenges we have in Denmark, which we have communicated earlier, and also the weak market in south part of Sweden, taking us to a margin at 4.5%. Adjusted for the one-offs, we are at 4.8% margin.

The one-offs I'm talking about is adding up to SEK 19 million in the group. Approximately half of that is coming from south part of Sweden, and the other half is coming from restructuring changes in Denmark.

And as Asa said, in the south part of Sweden, we are merging regions, branches to be more cost efficient and also to adjust to the local market conditions. We are also closing down some cost units, and all over where I think we have taken out --unfortunately, taken out around 300 people in the south part of Sweden. So that says something about the challenge we see in the market. In Denmark, it's more about changing management to prepare us and strengthen our organization for the future.

We continue to look at cost reduction both due to the market condition, but also to be more efficient internally. And that will give us a stronger, higher margin later on, of course. We see good performance, a really good performance in both Norway and Finland, and I can add north part of Sweden to that part as well. But fantastic to see that the margin improves in those areas. Improved cash flow and cash conversion and the injuries is down, and that is a KPI -- we are improving all the ESG KPIs a lot, which is good to see.

So we have some upcoming events as well. This is the slide. 11th of February is the next report, and then we have the interim report of Q1 in May, just to be prepared. Normally, we have a Q&A slide here, but I push on that button so then we can start the Q&A. So please.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Carl Ragnerstam from Nordea.

[Carl Ragnerstam, analyst]

It's Carl here from Nordea. A few questions from my side. Firstly, you talked about the branches in Southern Sweden. Could you give us some flavor on how many branches that are affected? And perhaps also the expected annual sales losses for the either consolidation or the closing of the branches?

And also on that note, I mean, why did you take the decision to do it right now? Was it wrong geographical positioning over time to little service offering in these branches? Or is it just to perhaps also protect short-term earnings, because at some point the market also in Southern Sweden will likely return, right? So yes.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Yes. If I start and then Asa can give you some, hopefully, exact numbers on the sales and that part of the question. But what we can see is that the market is a lot more challenging in the south part of Sweden compared to the rest of the geographies where we are in Bravida. So that is the starting point. And then we have had some places, branches, cost units where we haven't really reached a margin or the profitability which we think is at a decent level in a quite okay market.

When we now enter into an even tougher market, I think it is unfortunately not possible to turn those branches, units around in a more challenging market. So I think that is about being loyal to our own strategy, focus on margin over volume, because if you haven't been profitable enough in a good market, then you can't handle downturn in the market. That is the reason.

And then, of course, the market will at some point turn, yes. But we also see that in those places, there is probably an underlying demand in the market that will be low for a while. And even if the market turns in those areas, we haven't been able to see that we will actually benefit enough in these areas, unfortunately. And that can depend on the demand in the market, can also depend on our own culture, leadership, et cetera. I'm not going into the different details here, but there are, of course, many different reasons why we are choosing to do this.

The number of branches is around 5 branches, I think, if I'm correct -- Asa can correct me later on -- and around in total 20 cost units that we are actually scaling down or closing -- or closing actually. Scaling down is more done on an overall basis. So we are adjusting in many places in South now. So Asa, maybe you can give some...

[Åsa Neving, executive]

Yes. We are closing in total 20 branches and sub-branches, which we call cost centers or filial. And 5 of those are branches, 5 of those 20. And 2 of those will be closed in this quarter, you can say. But if you take the sales in these cost centers that we have closed down is around -- yes, say, year-to-date around SEK 250 million.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Yes.

[Åsa Neving, executive]

Yes.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

And in total, that SEK 250 million is loss making today. So that will...

[Åsa Neving, executive]

So that -- we are taking that out.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Was that -- did we cover...

[Carl Ragnerstam, analyst]

It's very clear. Do you think you'll be able to funnel some of those volumes from other branches? Or should we see the SEK 250 million year-to-date, maybe SEK 300 million full year as perhaps permanently lost sales? Or do you think you could funnel some of it from adjacent branches?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Yes, of course, we can do that. But on the other hand, we have some sales that we are taking down -- scaling down in some other branches as well. So I think that is -- now we are entering into the Excel sheet and the theory how you -- that's your job, Carl, to estimate the top line. But of course, SEK 250 million is not SEK 250 million in reality because we will do some -- help some customers from other branches. On the other hand, we have some scaling down in other units as well. So yes, I think SEK 250 million is...

[Carl Ragnerstam, analyst]

Very helpful. And on the order intake, it's down 12%. I don't think you took any big orders in the quarter. So it's obviously up to comparing the underlying performance. But how do you perform versus the market, you'd say, in orders in the quarter? Because I obviously think it's very positive that you're maybe even more prudent than before. But how is it also to change, I guess, the mindset in the organization coming from a period where you seemingly gained a lot of market shares to actually perhaps also losing shares in order to protect margins. So the gas and brake changes, how is that affecting?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

That's a really good question. And I think I have the full respect to all our branch managers and regional managers out in the organization. I've been there myself. So I know what it means to be loyal to the strategy to not taking in, winning new businesses with too low margin, and you still know that you have a quite low order backlog locally. That takes something from the local leadership, definitely. Again, fully respect for that.

And I think the only way out of this market is to be loyal to that strategy, focus on margin instead of volume, try to reach and win the projects where you see you have good relations with customers, where you still can get decent pay, decent margin, et cetera, and win those business instead and stay out of the poor margin business, because that is the only way. Because when it turns, then you want to have the resources to put on the better projects and service orders.

And we still -- even if we are #1 in the market, there is still 90% of the market that we don't have. But in some areas, we are for now winning less than the market actually offers because of the price philosophy we are having. On the other hand, in east part of Denmark, for example, I think we are probably winning slightly more. But that is depending on the structure of the market where there are demand for a certain type of services projects where we are a perfect provider for the customers.

So it's different in different places, Carl, but it's important to be loyal to our strategy of margin over volume. And most of our leaders are. Is it easy for them? No. But we have a big trust in our local leaders and they will do this in a good way. And that is what impacts the order intake now. That's probably the best answer I can give you.

[Carl Ragnerstam, analyst]

Very clear. And the final one from my side, if I may. Looking at your guidance, you said that the market will continue to be weak also in the first half of '25. But on one hand, you have -- 50% around of your exposure is Service, seemingly growing in the quarter. Obviously, could change. You have a very low resi. You also have a good backlog with bypass Stockholm coming up, the subway. So how do we square the guidance you give? Is it just for the underlying market? Or is it also considering your variance -- or your various -- I mean, positives in your business model as well? Or how do we square that guidance with your mix?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

This is what I'm thinking a lot to myself, Carl. And let's see what...

[Carl Ragnerstam, analyst]

I could imagine.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Yes. And of course, I don't know. I can just guess. But the part of the market that is growing, the military spending, for example, jails, infrastructure, the industry investments, that is all part of the market that is very -- it's in a sweet spot for a company like Bravida. We can be in early phases to help customers. We have the resources. We have the competence. We have the financial stability to be a partner to this. So that is a positive side of the market where we probably have a big advantage in this sector that not many other companies actually have.

On the other hand, we still have the other part of the market where the market is having a low demand. For example, the resi as you say, office sector, et cetera, it varies from one area to another. But that is something we struggle with as well as all the other companies are doing. But being a company like Bravida, that's positive in the cycle we are in now because we have so many other opportunities, bypass Stockholm, as you mentioned, the subway, et cetera, and that is something we should produce. So yes.

But when we look at the data from external parts about the market going forward, we see that they are forecasting an improvement of the market in the coming quarters, but that is improvement of starting of new projects. That means that we are 6 to 12 months delayed in that forecast. So what we see in some numbers is that the market is improving, but that will help us in the late H1 or beginning of H2 as we see it today.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Karl Noren from SEB.

[Karl Norén, analyst]

A couple of questions from my side as well. If we start with Denmark, you're now saying that you expect the margin to improve here in the fourth quarter. I was wondering if it's possible to quantify that a little bit on how much you think the margin will improve. Previously, I think you said that it should be a normal margin in Q4. Now you seem a bit more cautious. So any comments on that would be helpful.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

But maybe a bit more cautious than what the normal margin means, what -- yes. But what we see is a clear trend shift in Q4, definitely. We still have some poor margin projects that we have to finalize, which was not expected in the beginning of the year when we communicated that in February. But it is clear that we are -- have done some structural changes in the organization. We have a new management leadership in place. It doesn't mean only new person. It's another way of leading the Danish division as well.

We have changed our way of working with our projects in an early phases. We see that the order backlog we have in Denmark now is more healthy, better margins. We have more risks in the calculation, better payment plans. And I think it's fair, Asa, correct me if I'm wrong, but a lot of the improvement in the cash flow is coming from Denmark. So that is also a good quality sign of the Danish business.

But still have some projects we have to finalize in Q4 diluting the margin a bit. But a clear trend shift in the margin. We said that we should be -- having black numbers in the first 3 quarters of Denmark, but low numbers. We are a bit negative in Q3. But if we adjust for the one-offs, we are black in Q3 as well. So a bit more cautious, Karl, but still a clear trend shift.

[Karl Norén, analyst]

I'm just wondering also on Denmark because I think that's the only region where you have really strong order intake or order momentum. Just when it will start -- this is newly taken projects. Is that up for start to production in early 2025? Or when we will see the...

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Some of them is already starting. Some may need some more design before -- so I think some starts now, some starts in Q1 and some in Q2. And maybe a few it will be early Q3. But I think that is -- the main part will start in the middle part of H1, I guess, yes.

[Karl Norén, analyst]

You say you have 3 out of 8 regions in Denmark with some problems. I'm just wondering if it's possible to say anything regarding what is the margin in the regions where you don't have any projects in Denmark approximately.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

If you take the good regions in Denmark without disclosing too much, they are good or really good.

[Karl Norén, analyst]

Okay. So 5% or above, something like that?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Definitely. Yes.

[Karl Norén, analyst]

Yes. Okay. That's clear. And then just one last question. On a group level, I mean, now your order backlog has come down a little bit, but it's still quite solid, I would say. But I was wondering in terms of the regions, is there any country where you are a bit worried that the order backlog is getting a bit weak? Or do you still see that you have a okay-ish backlog for the coming quarters?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

I think south part of Sweden has been mentioned a couple of times, definitely in that group. Finland to some extent. And then you can say Norway have a bit weaker order backlog as well. But that is depending on 2 things, I will say: very restrictive about what kind of projects we are bringing into the order backlog, but also that we are having some projects which are in Phase 1 which will change over into Phase 2, which means that we are helping the customers to do the design and then we will most likely get the second phase and doing the production as well.

So we have -- the numbers of Norway is slightly better in the order backlog due to the fact that we are having that type of contract as well. But we won't -- we can't and we won't say how much that is. Because that is how we work. Everything that is in the order backlog is signed and 100%. And if it's just only 95%, we are not putting that into that basket.

[Karl Norén, analyst]

That's clear. I'm just saying Norway has come down quite a bit, but I remember you had a very good backlog there some quarters ago, which drove the strong growth.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

That was really high as well before. So we are comparing with high numbers as well. But it is a little bit on the low side in Norway for the moment, I will say.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Karl-Johan Bonnevier from DNB Markets.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

A lot of good answers to my questions already, but a couple of more detailed ones. Looking at the restructuring charge in Q3, do you see a similar kind of impact also in Q4 with finalizing these projects you mentioned then at the tail end of them?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Karl-Johan, I think I hand over that one to Asa.

[Åsa Neving, executive]

Yes, if you take southern part of Sweden, we probably see some -- we will have some restructuring costs also in Q4. As Mattias said, we have been unfortunately let go of around 300 people. Most of those they work until the contract ends, so we don't get any one-offs from that. But there will be some. Yes, it will be some.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

But we don't know.

[Åsa Neving, executive]

But we don't know exactly how much.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

And in Denmark, you feel that you now are into the new structure that you were looking for, so nothing more in Denmark?

[Åsa Neving, executive]

No, not that we can see now. No.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

Excellent. Also looking at the working capital cycle, obviously, a much, much improved behavior this year. And I like your commentary also about how you try to do it on a project-by-project level. So 2 questions on that. I guess that means that you have very low credit risk or anything like that in the current market. And secondly, maybe if you could elaborate, compared to the different kind of pattern we had last year where you had a lot of release in Q4, what should we expect on the working capital side for Q4?

[Åsa Neving, executive]

I think if you look at Q -- if you compare Q4 last year, we had a strong cash flow. So I think it will be pretty good this year as well, but maybe not a lot better, but it will be strong. So we will have some positive effects on the working capital. You can say that we have entered some larger contracts this year where we have had really good payment plans, but also in smaller projects where we have actually had -- in the larger projects, we have actually had prepayments.

But also in the smaller ones, we always try to work with good payment plans and some prepayments so that we have some of the cash in our pockets, so to say, so that we can produce a couple of months without going bankrupt, if they go bankrupt, if you understand what I mean. So we have a positive cash effect in the project. Was that an answer...

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

Yes, it's clearly visible in your cash flow. So that's a good sign. And just one final from me, Mattias. You talk about the 7% margin target being a good aim for 2026. What needs to happen out there, say, during '25 and getting into '26 to reach that? And is it basically the market forecast you elaborate on playing out? Or is there something extra that needs to happen?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

No, but I think it's -- of course, we need a better market, obviously. But I also think we have some of it in our own hands. We need to improve our project execution. We need to take advantage on our scale advantage even better. The investments we have done must create lower cost or higher gross margin or we should stop doing it. So I think that is what we are trying to work out now.

We can wait for the market, of course. But meanwhile, we need to streamline our internal processes, improve our internal efficiency so we get a scale advantage on that side. At the same time, as we are improving our project execution, I will say, and -- we can support the branches project in a different way. But it's all about hiring the best talents in the market, make sure that the best people want to stay in Bravida.

But also what we have done now when we see the market go down, maybe scale down in some places where we haven't been able to actually deliver decent margin enough when the market has been okay. So I think that is many different medicines and tools we can use to get close to or above 7%.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

And when you look at the growth initiatives that you have been driving for the last couple of years, entering a couple of new verticals and so on, do you feel that they are ready for harvesting coming up to 2026?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Yes. We are still in a growth phase regarding building automation. Building automation is probably the part that has been the best of the 3 growth initiatives, where we are around -- we're getting closer to SEK 1.5 billion. I think we are around SEK 1.3 billion. I haven't seen the numbers recently. And where we had the critical mass in those units, we are making a good margin. In some branches, we are growing organically with cost where we don't have the critical mass, where we have slightly lower margin but good gross margins. So I think that is good.

When we look at the technical FM segment, it is a bit on pause due to market condition. But the part we have is okay or better. Then we see the energy savings part is a bit -- yes, I'm surprised that not more building owners are focusing more on the energy efficiency in houses because due to the new directive coming from EU, the ESG reporting -- yes, I mentioned a couple of more reasons why it's smart to take down the energy consumption. But that market hasn't really grown or developed the way we expected it to do. But maybe that's because of the market conditions and interest rates, confidence, et cetera, from our customers. So I think that is just a matter of time when it will kick in and help us and give us some tailwind, I think.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

Excellent. And if you look at acquisition, would you dare to or continue to do Thunestvedt kind of acquisitions with that kind of 2026 outlook?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

I think Thunestvedt, we do those when we think it's really smart to do it. And if it's smart to do it, we dare to do it. We did Oras a couple of years ago. We did Thunestvedt last year. Thunestvedt is developing due to plan or even slightly better than plan, which is good, of course. But we have the full respect of what it means because we know what it takes to work with acquisitions like that. So if we dare to do it, yes, if we have a good case. But we are not -- it's not -- we are not playing roulette. We do it when we think it's a good idea.

[Karl-Johan Bonnevier, analyst]

Sounds excellent. And one final on the same subject. Sorry for dragging on. When you look at Denmark, obviously, you have built up a totally different market presence over the last couple of years and having a, say, strong market share all across segments. Is that a market that now should be ready for also getting up towards the 7% target?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

I think it's -- Denmark will be supporting the margin journey within Bravida, but getting them up to 7% when we are breakeven so far this year -- it takes a while. It is a transformation journey. Q4 will be a clear trend shift. Then we will see that '25 will be some kind of transformation year, but it will be better than '24. Definitely, we will see step-by-step every quarter.

And there is no reason why Denmark shouldn't be able to be at 7%, but it will probably take a couple of years. But we have the skill set in people. We have a strong organization in many places, and we have 5 out of 8 regions that definitely will support that journey. But I also know that it takes time to get all things in place you need. But maybe not '26, but not far from '26.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Johan Lonnqvist Sunden from Carnegie.

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

As previous speaker, a lot of good questions have already been asked. But just a follow-up on the kind of outlook comments in the report. And just to get a sense for the lead times and maybe a clarification. When you talk about the pickup in maybe end of H1 '25 or beginning of H2 '25, are you referring to order intake or referring to organic revenue growth?

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

I think now we are into details about the timing that we really don't know. But if I should guess, I think that -- what we hear in the market, the gossip, so to say, is that we hear customers asking for budget prices. There is more activity now than before the summer. But being in this industry for 26 years, I know that is the first phase of the market turning. That doesn't mean that the customer will buy on those budget prices. They are testing their business cases. They are looking for opportunity to work with what they are doing every day.

The next phase is actually when we see business happens. And what we see in the market data is that the starts of new construction projects is going up now and going forward. And that means that 6 to 12 months from that, then it will be a start of the installation business. But that also means that probably it should be seen in our order intake somewhere in late Q1 maybe.

Now I'm very much guessing, Johan. But it probably won't be seen in Q4. Late Q1 and definitely in Q2 -- if the estimates of the market development being better in H2 will be correct, then we will see it in late part of Q1, beginning of Q2.

[Johan Sundén, analyst]

And then the time to your projects starting to be produced, is it then a couple of months in lead time from that or...

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Yes, it depends on the type of project. But you can say everything from 3 to 6 months maybe.

Okay. It seems like we have no more questions. I think we got some good questions anyway. So I think -- if you have listened to this, I think we have covered most of the interesting topics there might be through our presentation and the good questions from the analysts. So by that, thank you so much. And now we will continue to do our best to improve the business of Bravida.

[Åsa Neving, executive]

Absolutely. Thank you.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Thank you so much.

[Åsa Neving, executive]

Have a good day.

[Mattias Johansson, executive]

Bye.