Bonava AB (publ)

STO:BONAV B

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Good morning, everybody. I'm Susanna Winkiel, welcoming you to the presentation of Bonava's Third Quarter Report for 2023. The presentation will be given by Peter Wallin, our President and CEO; and Lars Granlof, our Chief Financial Officer. [Operator Instructions]

And now with no further ado, Peter, please start.

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Thank you very much, Susanna, and welcome to this broadcast, where we will try to talk you through the report we released earlier this morning.

So starting, as we always do with the outside view, what's happening on the sales part. We are increasing the sold units on a quarter-over-quarter, so we are increasing compared to the second quarter of this year. And this means that we are gradually reducing and closing the gap compared to last year. Last year started off very strongly in the first half, and then it started to abate into the second half.

So describing the market conditions, I would say, generally, it's more of a stabilization, but at a lower level. Our consumers and our buyers of B2B products are still adapting to inflation and higher cost of living. And such an effect, of course, that has on the interest rate and yield requirements.

One thing I would like to point out is that we have a very strong market position in many markets where there is a pent-up demand, where the supply of modern sustainable homes is much lower than the demand is. And that pent-up demand has been there for many years. So in order to support these submarkets that we have, and we are pointing out for you here on the slides with Berlin, Dortmund, Cologne and Riga, where we see the strongest pent-up demand currently in our portfolio, in our geographic footprint.

So continuing into the Q3 numbers. And as you all know, the Q3 is a very low quarter in terms of volume, the handed over of homes. And we are reporting an underlying gross margin of 9.8%. And that is, of course, impacted by the fact that we are reducing what we can when it comes to capital tied up. We are also delivering some projects where we have known that we would have lower margins due to reducing sales prices and also cost that has increased during the course of production, and we have known that. And that is, of course, in stark comparison to the third quarter of last year.

When it comes to adapting to the situation, we are now trending on SEK 1 billion in cost savings with the restructuring that we announced at the back end of September. And if you look on to the cost that we actually see in our profit and loss as costs into the indirect cost and our selling and admin costs, that corresponds to SEK 620 million annually. So of the SEK 1 billion, we are trailing around SEK 500 million this quarter. And out of the net impact, we are trailing at around SEK 240 million. And the biggest part, of course, is the savings that we announced in September in Germany, Finland and Sweden, and that will start to build up over the course of '24, so these numbers are for the full year impact into '25.

Our work with adapting costs and adapting cash flow also is visible on the net debt, which is continued downwards. So we are reducing it both compared to last year and the second quarter. We announced in September, as I have talked about, that we're taking restructuring charges and savings in Germany, Sweden and Finland. And when we talked about that, we said that it was about SEK 350 million, and we actually upped that number to SEK 434 million. And the reason for that, that we are targeting bigger -- somewhat bigger savings. And also we want to see those savings hitting our P&L earlier, quicker. So it is of the right reasons to adapt to the current market conditions.

What we also did during the third quarter was to do a strategic overview of the land bank because we were rigged on a level which were pin for growth in the beginning of last year, and this is a long-term business. So adapting this long-term business to the current market condition also means that we need to look at the really important strategic resource in our building rights. That's the prerequisites to building and developing our business into the future.

So with the strategic overview, we took over our land bank. We have made an impairment of roughly SEK 700 million in the quarter, which we are rule to reporting as items affecting comparability. After this, the surplus value, the estimated surplus value is around SEK 1.2 billion. Now this will make it easier for us to take necessary actions to divest land bank that we are not seeing that will support the business going forward, and we are also making preparations to be able to start projects when the market allows.

Finally, I'm very glad to report, which is in the press release yesterday that the St. Pete -- sale of St. Petersburg has been closed. And since we saw some of that movement already in the third quarter with -- we took up the value of this into the profit and equity and that relates to the profit of not the running business, but the businesses that have been divested. But it also means that, that part is yet to be visible into the net debt. So it's roughly SEK 600 million will knock down the net debt with in addition to what you see on the [ 6.3 ] that we reported at the end of the third quarter. Lars will comment to all the net integrated details of that.

Talking about financing, talking about the business that in long term, a long-term business requires long-term financing. There is a challenging market condition, of course, which is not new to anyone with the higher interest rates and the lower demand, where consumers and investors is adapting to the new situation. And we started to take actions already when we experienced the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And we have gradually increased those measures. And all of it is relating to increasing our flexibility as a business by reducing the cost level and reducing the tie-up of capital and indebtedness.

We are in a very positive dialogue with our lenders and our main shareholders regarding the long-term capital structure of the group. And we are a responsible company and to be a responsible company, you need to look at all the strategic options. And we need to adapt this to Bonava 2.0, how is Bonava looking now with the footprint that we have and the expected development of the markets going forward.

And if we talk about the business and how we work in the business, I think the selling part can't be stressed enough. We need to stay really close to the market and our customers. We are a company which is dependent on our customers, that all companies. But of course, we need to stay very close to what is happening out there. And we are adapting the costs to the volume that we see. We have been early on here. And of course, we will be looking into how we are trailing and trading in order to adapt. We can do more of this, if needed. But I think that we are quite good balance now to what we see in terms of business volume going forward.

And last, but not least, optimizing the portfolio of land banking projects. It also means that we need to revisit how much capital we tie up. And as you saw in the third quarter, we are already selling assets. Unfortunately, with some losses, but we are also increasing the cash flow, which will make it possible to start new projects and create business volume and profitability going forward.

And the last point here, of course, is also that all the decisions when it comes to starts, all the decisions which has to do with investments, that rests centrally in Bonava. So we have a very good grip on what we're doing and what we're committing capital and cash flow to.

And running off my first part here, I'm very glad to talk about these two projects. On the left-hand side, you see Simonsveedel. Simonsveedel in Cologne, Germany, which was the mix of a B2B deal that we made in September, but also smaller business to consumer parts started up. And this is good and really good and beneficial because not only do we create a positive business volume, we create a cash flow but because this is prepaid. And we also are reducing our land bank. So there's a lot of positive things here. And not the least, we are also building sustainable modern homes to the society of Cologne.

Secondly, on the right-hand side, you see another part of the project we're working with now, where we are starting up one of the last phases in a big area, which we have developed over many years, Aiandi 8 in Tallin, Estonia. And this is where we really know the market and we really have built up a good demand for the types of home that we are developing. So it feels very good from a risk balance point of view of both having established the market in a great new neighborhood like we have done here in Estonia.

With that said, I'm turning over to you, Lars.

[Lars Granlöf, executive]

Thank you, Peter. Good morning, everyone. Let's start with this slide that I always do. The number of units that we have recognized in relation to what we're guiding for in our Q2 report. As you see, we are approximately 100 units lower that has gone into the net sales for Q3 compared to the guidance. And the main part of that is coming from that completed unsold have been increasing. Even though we were selling, we have sold 63 units out of unsold by the end of Q3. We were adding more now in Q4 -- Q3, sorry.

So moving over to the income statement. With those 700-plus units, we were then reaching net sales of about SEK 2.7 billion. And that is higher than the prior year despite the fact that we actually handed over realized recognized less units in this quarter. But we have the Swedish weak currency impacting our income statement significantly and increasing net sales.

And as Peter was also talking about, we had a quarter with a lower gross margin. We have made deals selling land made cash flow improvement transactions in the quarter, impacting our income statement, our profitability in a negative way. But also the mix of projects and units handed over compared to the prior year, where we actually had significant portion of very good gross margin in units compared to this year where we had low gross margins in a number of handovers. But we also introduced this underlying gross profit where we have been adding back the impact from sale of land and write-downs in operations just to guide you, to give you a feeling for what is the underlying profitability.

Our sells and ad is coming down. And again, the impact -- the currency impact means that in Swedish krona, the selling ad is relatively higher than if we had used last year's exchange rate. And then you've seen that we have also taken items affecting comparability, about SEK 800 million in write-downs of our land bank, capitalized development costs and a Build-to-Manage project, and also some SEK 400 million for reorganization, Germany, Sweden and Finland.

So with that, our net financial items being much higher than the prior year, of course, coming from higher interest rates, high market interest rates and a slightly higher net -- average net debt in the quarter, we have a net loss in our continuing operations of about SEK 1.4 billion. But then in the result from operations to be discontinued, of course, as Peter was mentioning, we have then included the gain from the divestiture of St. Pete's that is coming now in Q4 from a cash flow and net debt perspective.

So let's move over to our business units. And it's very good to see then that our main business units, almost 60% of our business is adding unit solds and started units increased both in relation to last quarter and the same quarter last year. And the sales is higher. The net sales realized is higher, mainly driven out of the currency, as I said. About 2/3 of our items affecting comparability is coming in the German business unit. And we also then added here for your information, for your estimation for the coming quarter, we are estimating some 690 units to be completed in Germany in the fourth quarter.

Sweden, second largest business unit, we have a slightly lower net sales due to a mix, lower average unit price of those realized compared to the prior year. But here, we have also then taken these types of charges, sale of land and write-down of land that will be sold in the fourth quarter that has impacted the income statement negatively, but the cash flow in a positive way. About SEK 400 million of the -- of SEK 350 million of the items affecting comparability is coming down in the Swedish business unit. And you see some 375 units will be completed in the fourth quarter.

In Finland, probably the toughest market that we are in right now due to the high level of supply completed unsold in the market, but we increased net sales due to that we were recognizing more units. We were too taking some items affecting comparability also in the Finnish business and our estimated completions for the fourth quarter are close to 300 units all in all.

The Baltics, we are on a stable level in net sales. Our gross margin or gross profit is slightly lower, mainly due to a lower volume in the business and less capitalization of costs and new handovers in Lithuania. The first two Build-to-Manage projects, the two Build-to-Manage projects that we are running in Baltics, we are estimating now to be completed in the fourth quarter of '23 and started to be filled up with tenants over the coming quarters. And the estimate, the completions in the Baltics for the fourth quarter is almost 500 units.

A couple of words about St. Petersburg. As you have seen, in mid-October, we actually signed a deal with a new buyer and we managed to close that yesterday, which means that the payment that we received in mid-October, the EUR 50 million, we are keeping that. And that's part of the profit from discontinued operations in the third quarter and it will be part of the cash flow and the net debt reduction in the fourth quarter.

Talking about the savings. As Peter was mentioning, with the additional savings coming from the lease in September, by the end of September, the reorganization in Germany, Sweden and Finland, we will be saving gross expenses of SEK 1 billion, and that should have a full impact then starting from the beginning of '25. And if we are breaking it up, some SEK 620 million of that is indirect cost and sales and ad, and we are on track with that. On a rolling 12-month basis, we have now up till the third quarter reduced cost with about SEK 240 million. And the remaining part of SEK 380 million is cost that will be going into projects that we now are reducing. So over time, that will mean that we have a higher profitability in the projects that we are completing going forward.

Looking at our assets, our balance sheet. We see that we are improving. Despite the fact that the currencies, in particular, the euro is increasing our assets in Swedish kronas, we have been coming down with more than SEK 2 billion. Part of that is, of course, the write-down of the land bank, but it's also that we are handing over at this point in time, more units than we are starting in the quarter, so capital employed is improving.

Moving to the cash flow. Here you see a significant difference compared to the prior year, where we actually had big negative cash flow in the third quarter. Now it's a positive cash flow, and we continue to take measures, of course, both in the ordinary business cashing in on what we have been selling, but also look into divesting land and converting maybe customer deals over to investor deals to have a more positive cash profile, cash flow profile.

Moving over to our credit facilities. As you've seen, we have about SEK 1.2 billion of unutilized credit facilities when we ended the third quarter. In addition, we also have a small portion of project financing unutilized. But we have also then realized that, of course, with the reorganization charges that we announced, this will impact our covenants. We have reached an agreement with our creditors to add back that in the calculation of our interest coverage ratio. And that has been -- agreement has been reached after the closing of the period, which means that we have now as requested -- required by accounting standards reclassified all the loans to short term.

So you can see the facilities over time here. And the maturity coming up is, of course, the bond loan that is part of our discussions also with creditors. So with positive cash flow, of course, the net debt is coming down, coming down with about SEK 300 million. And if we look at the covenants, the equity to asset ratio about 28%, clearly above the limit. And also the interest coverage ratio is 2.5x, also clearly above the limit that we have in our agreement.

This is partly a new slide. You can see what we normally are presenting, i.e., the building rights over time, how that is divided in our BUs. But upper left-hand part of this is, of course, new information. As Peter mentioned, we have made a valuation of our land bank using external parties and we have complemented that, of course, also with some internal valuation means that after the write-down of almost SEK 700 million that we made in the quarter, we have a book value of our land bank of SEK 8.3 billion. But looking at the valuation where external partners have then valuated 83% of it in total, we have an estimated value of SEK 9.5 billion, i.e., an estimated surplus value in our land bank of SEK 1.2 billion.

And if we then look into the land bank as such. We see that out of the 28,600 building rights, we are estimating that almost 7,000 of them will be used for starts in fourth quarter this year and the coming two years. And as in prior periods, it's mainly multifamily, and it's mainly in the customer segment that we are seeing those starts.

So with that, I hand over to you again, Peter.

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Thanks -- presentation. Thank you very much, Lars. So wrapping this up, lowering the cost base and increasing our flexibility is one of the main parts of becoming fit for the future for Bonava. And we are doing a lot on this part, and we have achieved a lot already. So this continues to be our key priorities going forward.

We have also described a market as is stabilizing and have been stable for some quarters now, but at lower levels, of course, and we are seeing that the sales is gradually picking up compared to last year. The strategic review of the land bank is creating a good basis, as we said, on the future project investment decisions. That means both monetizing assets to reduce capital tied up, but also taking proactive measures to start new projects to build more business volume and profitability for the future.

And as Lars alluded to, we have a very active positive dialogue with the lenders and the main shareholders. And we will update you, of course, on the financing situation as we go along. And all of this that we're doing, this is again being fit for the future and being able to reap the benefits when the market turns. And third quarter is a small quarter. I look forward to stand here again, talk about the fourth quarter because that is Bonava's biggest quarter in terms of cash flow and profitability.

So with that, Susanna, should we do something else now?

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Peter, and thank you, Lars. We will now open up for questions. [Operator Instructions]

Then we have a question from [ Kevin Servant ] at SEB. Divestment of Russia and Norway provides liquidity, but will this mean that the bond maturity early 2024 will be refinanced or amortized?

[Lars Granlöf, executive]

I would say that what we mentioned in the slide and Peter mentioned, we are having a dialogue with our creditors and major shareholders. So it includes all our credit facilities right now and how we should look at that going forward. So there is no absolute decision about what to do with specific facilities at this point in time.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Right. And tying into that, the next question from Kevin. Is also considering all strategic options is raising equity one of those options?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Raising equity?

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Yes, right .

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Well, as we said, when we talk about all the options and when it comes to equity, that's not the -- part of the management that can comment on that, of course. But taking again the view of being responsible, we need to look at all different strategic options.

And there is also the situation. We have now built a Bonava 2.0. So we have a greater understanding of where we stand as a company, the footprint, the needs and the opportunity, so forth. So it's a greater base to start to build sort of the long-term financing that we need to support this business.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

All right. So switching subjects. We have Simen Mortensen asking, out of the Q3 impairment, how much is impacting cash? So maybe now and going forward, how much of this will impact cash?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Of the SEK 1.2 billion?

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Yes. Yes.

[Peter Wallin, executive]

So shall you start with that question?

[Lars Granlöf, executive]

Absolutely, absolutely. About to 2/3 of it is, of course, write-down. So it's noncash from the beginning, but some of that will probably lead to us divesting land in the future, but it's noncash right now. And the rest, the reorganization charges will, of course, be taken over time because the main part of that is relating to people leaving us and the payments that we are making when people are leaving. So that will be cash, but not right now, it's over the rest of '23 and '24, I would say.

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Yes. And to build on that, we are not doing it in order to pay cash. We're doing it to reach savings. So it's actually a positive cash if you look on the net impact.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

So with time, it's a positive cash flow effect?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Yes.

[Lars Granlöf, executive]

Yes. I mean the reorganization charge, we are estimating to have SEK 400 million improvements, and that is also improvement in cash flow on a yearly basis going forward.

[Peter Wallin, executive]

And some of this is lump sum payments, smaller proportion in lump sum payments that you do. But other than that, you are also making the gradual payments out [ as a month ] as you do with the monthly salary and such, then you make the savings. So it's not that you have a huge amount of money living us, and then you start to see the savings gradually, so it's a mix.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

It's a mix. And then the next question, a very good question from [indiscernible], a bit of a technical question. He inquires about the differences in the calculation of the sort of, if you just -- straight ICR calculation and the ICR calculation in our loan agreements. So the interest coverage ratio, which is in our loan agreements, if you wish to comment on the difference between those two. Lars, perhaps .

[Lars Granlöf, executive]

Between the -- if you just calculated based on the income statement compared to...

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Yes.

[Lars Granlöf, executive]

In -- I think in any ICR calculation that you have in loan agreements, noncash elements such as write-downs are typically added back, which is the most significant portion. And then we come to IFRS 16 calculations, leasing, et cetera. Yes, that will be very technical to get into that. But those are the main parts added back and being the difference between pure calculation based on the income statement and what's in the loan agreement.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Yes. Very good. I have no further questions at the moment. Is there anybody else on the phone who wishes to dial star 5? No? Very very good.

Then I would like to thank Lars and Peter for an excellent presentation. And also thank you very much for listening.