Bonava AB (publ)

STO:BONAV B

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q1

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Hello, and good morning. I am Susanna Winkiel, and you are welcome to the presentation of Bonava's Report for the First Quarter of 2023. With me here today, I have our President and CEO, Peter Wallin; and our CFO, Lars Granlof.And with that, let's get started with the presentation. Peter?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Thank you very much, Susanna, and good morning to you all from a sunny and chilly Stockholm. So, let's go with the first quarter then. Taking a few market highlights first. We have, as expected, a low business activity of sold and started units in the first quarter. And even though the activity from a business volume point of view is low, the activity level in the offices and on the sites are very high. So, we are seeing still challenging market conditions of course, but we are seeing actually an improving activity in some of the regions in our portfolio. On the cost side, we, as we have indicated before, and we start to see it more and more, the cost inflation is starting to abate. The costs are going down on certain material inputs and the energy prices are lower. So, this is good for us in the long run.Dipping our toes into the first quarter results, the volumes, as we have said, is low. And as we've indicated in the release that we sent out last week, we have seen some postponements of handovers of projects. They are not gone. They are just postponed into the second quarter. And that, of course, leads to that the business volume as such in the quarter from being already expected to be low is even lower. We can also note that the project margins is in the handovers improve. And that means that the machinery is working and all the actions that we have been busy working on is giving impact.But even though the cost savings are going according to plan that we've talked about, and again, going to remind ourselves that we have talked about the full year impact of around SEK400 million in reduced cost of indirect and selling and admin from Jan 1, 2024, full year impact. So of course, you can't see the full year impact in this first quarter. And when the business volume drops a little bit, then of course, it under absorbs the costs on both the indirect, which impacts the gross margin and on the selling and admin, which impacts the EBIT margin.And then you have also seen that indebtedness has risen. Lars will talk to a large extent to this. And this is predominantly due to the fact that we have entered into conditioned acquisition of building rights in the past. And those conditions have now been fulfilled and that's why we have executed investments into the building rights. If you look into the first quarter, a lot of the building rights that is referred to is in Germany and especially, in the Berlin area. So that is a source of growth and a source of profitability for Bonava. So, this will be good for the long run.I would like to, as I always do, talk about 2 of the projects that we have started in the quarter. On the left-hand side, you see a Project Glod, in Umea, a busy university city in the north of Sweden. And here is the last phase in a multi-phased project where we have sold out completely. And that's why we feel actually quite at ease starting this project with a very good proven team and a proven market -- submarket in Umea. And this is going to be completed back-end of '24. So, we are preparing for the market then. So, that's why we've started this project.The other project then is a project in Berlin, Wohnen im Ritterschlag. This is single-family housing in the neighborhood, which consists in total of 300 houses. But we are doing and executing these projects in smaller phases step by step. And this is a very good model, both to handle risks and also to handle the market in a good way.So with that, Lars, why don't you take us through the numbers to more detail.

[Lars Granlöf, executive]

Thank you, Peter. Good morning, everyone. Yes, I will, as always, give you a bit of the details. And this is not news to you. We released last week that we were not going to complete as many units as we were estimating when we released the Q4 report. So, we were estimating 940 in total. And you see here that the investor deals, we have actually then completed, the amount that we were calculating estimating at the end of Q4. But in the consumer area, we have delays of 118 units, primarily in Germany and in the Baltics. So, out of the 612 consumer units that we actually then completed, we then have about 170 unsold, but we have also been able to sell out of the balance that we had by the year-end. So, the net increase in completed unsold is 127. So all in all, almost 700 units handed over and as the base then for the result and the sales and 486 of those are the consumer units.So, going over to the income statement then, based on those number of units, which are about 150 units less than the first quarter last year, we have a turnover net sales of about SEK2.4 billion. And as Peter mentioned, with low volumes, we are not absorbing all the costs. All the indirect costs, which is affecting our gross margin being low, 10.4%, which is even lower than the prior year. And we have also done under absorption in the selling and admin expenses. So, we have underlying improvements both in indirect costs and in selling and admin expenses, but some of it is hitting the income statement directly here. That means that we are just around SEK40 million level on EBIT, which is about half of last year.And coming down to financial net, financial net is, of course, significantly lower or higher expense than we have had in the prior year. And this is relating to increased net debt but also increased interest rates and also the base rates, of course, in those facilities, credit facilities that has been renegotiated. If we then go down to the net result, we have a net loss of SEK39 million in the continuing operations. And then you have the operations to be discontinued, as you know, then it's St. Petersburg that we reclassified in 2022 to discontinued operations. And we took the significant write-down in the fourth quarter 2022, which is part of the 2022 figure that you can see here.If we move over to our business units then starting with Germany being the biggest one, above 50% of our business. Here, we have the delays that we've talked about earlier on, that is affecting the number of units handed over and thereby the net sales being significantly lower than the prior year. And here, we also have the other absorption of cost that is then affecting the gross margin as well as the EBIT margin.Moving to Sweden, 18% of our business. Here, we have a lower number of units handed over, but at a higher margin, which is visible, of course, here. So, the mix is much better than the prior year. We have a control of cost to a very good extent in these projects, of course. And as Peter mentioned, we have a start of 69 units then in Umea, up North in Sweden, which is the starts that you can see here.Finland, 12% of our business, we have more handovers in Finland, which is increasing our net sales, but the margin has been hit by a couple of legacy projects, legacy projects. These are old contracts where we have to start them. We knew that we had to start them at very low margins in order for us not to run into problems having penalties to be paid. And these have then been completed and included in the profitability for the first quarter in Finland and the group. But we have the 75 units here in the Solina project, one phase, one further phase of the Solina project that we announced in March.Norway, also about 12%. Also here, we have more units handed over, increasing sales, improving our gross margin significantly compared to the prior year. But we haven't got any starts in the quarter as such. So, sales is coming primarily from completed unsold since prior periods. The Baltics then finally, we have more handovers than the prior year. So, we are increasing sales. We are on a stable level in terms of gross margin at a high level. We see good sales activity in Riga, which is the best market out of the Baltic states. And we're estimating that the first build-to-manage project that we have now will be completed in the third quarter this year.A few words about St. Petes then. The sales process that was stopped has restarted. So that is ongoing. We are reporting, as I said, the business has discontinued, which means that we continue also then to offset any profits that is coming. So, we are not building new net asset value, keeping the net asset value of St. Petes at a 0 level. From an operations point of view, we have added over 81 units in the first quarter. And we are estimating that the last ones will be completed in the third quarter. And just to reiterate, we have a land bank, but there will not be any new projects or any investments in new land in St. Petes.So, moving over from the business over to the balance sheet. You've seen that the balance sheet has been growing. We are north of SEK26 billion in total assets, which is SEK1.7 billion higher than the prior year, SEK1.4 million of those are just currency changes. But if you look into the each line, we, of course, then see that the housing -- the land bank has been increasing due to the payments that we have made and then converted conditional agreements over to on-balance sheet building rights.The cash flow then, we have a negative cash flow, even though not as negative as the first quarter in the prior year. But on a net basis, this is all relating to payments for earlier committed land. And as Peter has mentioned, the main part of this is in Berlin, which is a growing market, which is a very positive thing that we are investing in plots that are in very good places for us.And moving over from cash flow to net debt. Of course, with negative cash flow, we see a net debt that has been increasing up to SEK7.8 billion. SEK6.2 billion of that is coming based on the central facilities. And then we also have, of course, the net debt coming from project financing in tenant-owner associations and housing companies in Sweden and Finland. And as you see here in the slide are 2 covenants, the equity to asset ratio and interest cover ratio. We are on the right level, we are significantly over and above what the limits are in the loan agreements.The facilities looks like this. So, we have some facilities that are following -- maturing now in 2023. We have the bond that is maturing in March '24, and we have the revolving credit facility that is maturing in early '25. And then, of course, we have a number of other bilateral facilities as well. SEK1.1 billion unutilized and we have SEK0.2 billion unutilized on the project financing as well.Going over to the building rights, we are on the same level basically as we were 1 year ago, but significantly higher book value because of the conversion over to on balance. You see in the quarter, we have converted more than 1,100 building rights over to on balance we have been paying for them. And if we then look at 32,800 building rights that we have, about 50% of those we have bought during '21 and up till now. Out of the 32,800, we estimate to start about 11,500 in '23 to '25. And you see here that if we divide them in multifamily and single-family, it's mainly multifamily with more than 75%. And if you look at the consumer versus the investor, it's almost 80% consumer, but we are, of course, continuously looking into whether it's better to convert it to a B2B deal versus a B2C deal, which is possible in a number of cases.So with that, Peter, I hand over back to you.

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Wow. Fantastic. Thank you so much, Lars. Really good and quick. So, trying to wrap up what we've talked about here. There is, of course, I need to click the bottom first. This is, of course, a challenging market that we're in. It's not a surprise for us and it is not a surprise for you. We are working as hard as we can, and I think the sales is one of the most important activities we can do in the current market.Taking a look on the results, we are seeing good project margins in handed over projects with a few exceptions that Lars has commented upon, but the trend is good. The machinery is working. However, the cost absorption is very low in the first quarter with the low business volume. Despite the fact that we are tracking and trailing, getting the savings that we have indicated before, we need to continuously review our cost levels because the cost levels need to be in sync with the business volumes over a longer period of time. Short term, it's very hard to impact the cost levels in an isolated quarter like this. But we are looking in the longer term, and we need to peg the cost levels to the business volumes we see longer term.We are prepared to start projects. We are -- and when the right conditions are in place. And this, I think, is one of the most important part of us of building and creating a business volume into '24 and '25. And then sales and strengthening the balance sheet are top of the agenda. And I commented initially on that activity. It was a word that said activity is low, but the activity level in the company is very high and we know how to operate in the current conditions.And with that, Susanna, I hand over to you.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Thank you, Peter, and thank you, Lars. We will now be taking questions. [Operator Instructions]

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

All right. I have a question here, which has been asked by both Stefan Andersson and by [indiscernible]. How do you view the company's debt and liquidity position in a scenario with a challenging market condition over several years?

[Lars Granlöf, executive]

Yes. We have increased our indebtedness, as can be seen from the figures, very much due to land acquisitions over the last 1.5 years, but land in very favorable places as an average, I would say. We are working diligently with activities to improve our cash flow. We are, among other things, then very careful in starting new projects if we cannot see that it's generating at least a balance neutral cash flow, but preferably a positive cash flow. So, that is the #1 priority for us.

[Peter Wallin, executive]

And building on that also into the question is, we are very much aware of the current situation in the company and in the marketplace. And that is why we wanted to highlight the focus areas of sales and strengthening the balance sheet.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Right. And maybe a question for you, Peter. Simen Mortensen is asking, how are you working on pricing of units in today's market?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

That's a very good question because I think that the current market, if I'm going to compare that to hunting, the good market we could fish with net and catch a lot of fish. Now, we have to hunt with bow and arrow. So, we need to be very good on making the pricings in the local market and being very active chasing the leads that we see. And this is very important because we do -- the digital marketing platforms that we have and the way we are working with this is a very good way of making sure that we can track the leads and catch the leads. Hence, we have many arrows and many bows. But I think the -- it's a very important market to test where you can meet customers. So, certain objects you test with certain prices. You can't put everything out, but you take small piece by piece in order to see when you get traction in the market. So, that's very important.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Very good. Several people have been asking how is the strategic review of Norway going? Could you say anything about that?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Well, what I can say is that it's going on continuously with all the alternatives that we have mentioned before, looking at sales of the whole business, looking at sales of part of the business and assets and also looking on to merging it with other businesses in Bonava in order to increase effectiveness. And I know that that the time flies, but we are working very hard with this topic in order to make sure that we can create the best value proposition for Bonava and also for -- actually for the Norwegian business.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

All right. We have David Flemmich from Nordea, asking, can you say anything about the SG&A level going forward? Is it reasonable to extrapolate the Q1 level in all geographies? Or do you expect it to decrease further in, for example, Sweden?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

So, going back to my earlier statement of looking into -- we need to look at the business volume and we need to look on a full year basis. So, what happens is we get a chunk where the S&A comes more or less 1/4 each quarter, but where the business volume is what it is in the quarter, hence, the cost absorption issues that we have talked about here appears. So, what we've also indicated, I think, on the Capital Markets Day is we can't afford a selling and admin level, which exceeds 6% of sales over time. So, I think with those two components, understanding the business volume also means the sizing of this max 6% necessary. So, that is why I say we will need to continuously review the cost levels. We are not happy with the way we are trailing right now, and we need to do more.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Right. And also next question from David also relating to margins. He's wondering if we have any more legacy projects that we want to make him aware of.

[Peter Wallin, executive]

I think it's a very hard -- I'm not aware of a larger legacy projects. But then coming back to the earlier question of sales in the current market conditions, of course, we could have a situation where we need to take from the margins we did expect previously on the project in order to execute sales and to get cash flow, whether those are legacy project or actually an impact of the market. So, it's more of the latter than the first. So, that's -- that's the mix question.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Okay. Now a question perhaps to Lars. How do you intend to refinance the 2024 bond?

[Lars Granlöf, executive]

Yes. We are starting that process looking into what we can do. And most likely, it will be a split in at least two different parts. And we'll see how we handle that compared to the other financing of the credit facilities that we have, but we have started the process.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Very good. I have one more question from David, Nordea. What would you say is the biggest challenge in increasing volumes in Germany? Is it demand construction costs or building permits?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Very good question. I think it's a little mix of both right now. But building permit is still sort of a hump for us to get passed. So, the demand side is starting to look up as we have indicated in some of the regions, predominantly Berlin, which is the biggest region. So, we are ready to start a project, but we need the building permit, that's for sure.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

All right. And will we be giving any targets for housing starts for this year?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

No. And I think understanding the context of the market and how fluid the situation is right now, that would be a very high risk game of issuing a number.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

We also have [indiscernible] from SEB Equities asking what is your view on the risk of unsold completions increasing due to low activity?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Very good question. And I think this is one of the Qs coming back to the questions of cash flow and liquidity situation because what happens is that you strand capital in completed unsold. We have a huge focus on that notion. And sometimes we could be more cool than in other cases. So, we have a huge back of activities in order to target the completely unsold or the risk of increasing completed unsold.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

And if I interpreted you correctly before this relates both to other types of incentives as well as testing pricing levels to find the market?

[Peter Wallin, executive]

Correct. All the activities, nothing is sort of out of the question.

[Susanna Winkiel, executive]

Very good. I believe that was our last question for the moment. Anything on the phone? No. All right. Well, with that, we will say thank you very much for listening in. And thank you again, Peter and thank you, Lars.