BHG Group AB

STO:BHG

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

My name is Gustaf Ohrn, CEO of BHG, and I'm here together with Jesper Flemme, the company's CFO.

I will give you a few highlights of the report, some future outlook and focus on our current actions, Jesper will then try to further clarify the financial details, and we will both be available for the Q&A, doing our very best to answer all your questions.

Slide 4, please. A few words about the financial highlights of the Q3 report. Sales was down approximately 8% in the quarter compared to the third quarter last year, maybe not where we want to be, but showing improvement in our year-on-year comparison for the second quarter in a row. With minus 8% in sales development, we are confident that in comparison with available numbers of market development, we continue to take market share.

Earnings came in at SEK 13 million, down versus last year, but remaining profitable in a quarter that is historically weak for BHG from a seasonal perspective and in a challenging market environment.

Cash flow continued to be strong with plus SEK 224 million, continually driven by inventory reductions. All in all, summarizing a plus SEK 350 million better cash flow in the quarter compared to last year.

In summary, we continue to be super happy with cash flow, not yet where we want to be in profitability, and now in a position where we, looking forward, will prioritize profit over cash flow.

Slide 5, please. A few words about the market development and the future outlook as we view it. Market continues to be super challenging in the consumer sector in general and especially in some of our categories. The second half of the quarter, gradually becoming more challenging through the quarter, potentially driven by warm weather in September in combination with tougher comps.

Sales continues to be extra challenging in the more capital-intensive categories as doors, windows, et cetera. The contracting market, a result of weak demand, primarily as a consequence of decreasing disposable income in combination with low activity in the housing market.

Gross margins still affected by overstock situation in some categories. With that said, we expect this to decrease in significance in most categories during the fourth quarter.

Looking forward, we expect the remaining part of 2023 and also '24 to remain weak in demand. Given the development of the macro in the last few months, we now expect the market to remain challenging for a longer period than we expected in the beginning of the year.

We are most likely close to peak rent. And with that, a significant part of the uncertainty of the future rent levels is decreasing, which likely is positive for consumer confidence. However, we now believe that the interest rates will remain high for a longer period than we thought in the beginning of the year.

On a positive note, we see in prices coming down slowly from freed up capacity, when we also, as you all know, see substantially lower freight rates. For us, selling a significant share in bulky goods, this makes a significant difference. Of course, right now, a lot of focus on the upcoming important sales periods of Black Week.

Slide 6, please. Our focus remains unchanged to execute on the strategy that we have decided and communicated with the ambition to strengthen our balance sheet, our cash flow and our profit. This in order to deliver on our midterm targets of taking us back to what we call pre-pandemic levels of profit and cash flow generation.

In short, this means continue to strengthen cash flow, primarily from reducing inventory. Cash flow has been strengthened with SEK 1.2 billion year-to-date, continue to strengthen the balance sheet. We are super pleased with the achievements of the team when it comes to balance sheet. We are down approximately SEK 1 billion in interest-bearing liabilities since the beginning of the year, driven by cash flow, a decrease in acquisition-related liabilities and an increase in cash, and improvements on profitability.

Our main focus is always to continue to maximize sales and margin in combination with implementing the earlier communicated cost savings program of some SEK 150 million to SEK 200 million. This program is on track, and the main focus is on organizational and warehousing costs.

We also continue to take structural actions to improve our profitability, consolidations, as you know, and this quarter also by executing a restructuring program in the Value Home segment, divesting nonprofitable businesses and reducing retail store footprint and thereby improving profitability with approximately SEK 59 million year-to-date on a pro forma basis. I will come back to and elaborate on this in a second.

Slide 7, please. Expanding on inventory reduction. This quarter, we have reduced our inventory with -- for the fifth consecutive quarter, inventory now down plus SEK 700 million so far this year and already ahead of our year-end goal of reducing inventory by SEK 600 million during 2023. Compared to the third quarter last year, our inventory is now down plus SEK 950 million.

Reducing inventory is crucial to free up cash, but also to reduce cost as high inventory levels is a cost driver, both from extra warehouse space and also from decreased efficiency in fulfillment. Even with the significant inventory reductions we have achieved in the last year, we still see potential for continued inventory reductions. However, looking forward at a significantly lower pace of reductions, with lower inventory levels, we need to be more cautious and balance it against availability. And as mentioned, prioritizing profit over cash flows.

Slide 8, please. A key focus for us is to continue to simplify our structure to realize synergies, achieve economies of scale and improve efficiency. We have, as mentioned, during the last year, done a significant number of consolidations, and we have more consolidations to be done. We have also divested businesses that we don't see fit into our strategy or structure and/or where we don't see potential for profitability within the foreseeable future.

In this last quarter, we divested the businesses of AH-Trading and MyHome. These divestments as part of a larger restructuring program in the Value Home segment. Main strategic reason for exiting AH-Trading was that it is a very seasonal business and our only business based out of Germany. The main strategic reason for exiting MyHome was that it is 80% store-based business where we struggled to get traction on the online business.

And financially, both of them are nonprofitable and where we did not see potential for profitability within the foreseeable future. Exiting MyHome also significantly reduced our store footprint. And also as part of the same restructuring program in the Value Home segment, we decided to close the majority of the stores in Trademax, Chilli and Kodin1.

We do see store-based retail as a valuable complement to our online business, but we are and want to remain most and foremost -- most an online-based business. The shop-based business has a significantly higher share of fixed costs and especially now we see that, that model has a higher risk model in the current challenging business environment.

We have communicated before, and I will repeat that when it is the only option and if it does burden our profitability, we will not shy away from closing down nonstrategic or nonprofitable businesses. With that said, we now believe that the majority of divestments and closures is behind us, but with more consolidations to be done in our ambition to continue the journey from a large number of individual businesses to fewer and bigger platforms.

Slide 9, please. On a business unit level, where we believe most of the synergies are to be realized, we have the following key strategic and operational priorities. On Home Improvement, as mentioned, consolidation of our entities into fewer and larger platforms, continue to reduce inventory and cut fixed costs to reflect current demand situation, leverage intercompany sales between our entities and also in these challenging times, continue to expand internationally. This can today be done cost efficiently, and it is clear that businesses with a higher share of international business is developing stronger than the purely domestic businesses.

Invest in our tech platform. One example of this is Bygghemma Sweden, where we're currently investing in a new tech platform to enable future consolidations. And in Value Home, also here to consolidate into fewer entities and larger platforms to continue to reduce inventory and consolidate and optimize warehousing to reduce fixed cost and drive profit.

Expand sales channels, both by driving international expansion of opening up new markets and in this segment also expanding to selling the assortment over other international marketplaces, and upgrade tech platform in Value Home, more to improve customer experience and to reduce cost levels from older nonefficient platforms. Currently, we are investing in the Trademax platform.

And our last BU, Premium Living. The main entity in this group is Nordic Nest, a highly international business based on selling Scandinavian design in the international markets with a main focus on Europe and a few selected markets in Asia. It is clear that this internationalization is working, and our focus is to continue executing on this strategy.

Last year, we also initiated a work to improve efficiency in handling and fulfillment with an investment in automation that spans over 3 years. We are currently in the second year of implementation of this automation. Also here, to consolidate into fewer and larger platforms, something we initiated a year ago with the consolidation of Svenssons into Nordic Nest, forming what we call the Nordic Nest Group.

Slide 10, please. And finishing this part of the presentation with a little bit of a tribute to our center of excellence team on group for online marketing. We're proud to announce that we also this year actually for the fifth consecutive year, stand as winners of the Swedish SEO price, only reaffirming our history and our expertise within cost-efficient traffic generation.

Thank you. And with this, I will leave the word to Jesper.

[Jesper Flemme, executive]

Thank you, Gustaf, and Slide 12, please. The third quarter was characterized by structural changes and strong cash flow in a market that remained challenging. Net sales decreased 7.9%, reaching SEK 2.9 billion. We continue to see a trend of weak underlying demand in capital-intensive product categories.

Segment wise, the Premium Living segment performed better than the group in terms of sales. From a geographical perspective, demand in the Nordic region was weaker than in other geographies, primarily driven by Sweden. Adjusted EBIT amounted to SEK 13 million corresponding to an EBIT margin of 0.4%.

Turning now to Page 13 and the EBIT bridge. The product margin decreased marginally compared to Q3 last year, mainly due to high campaign activity in the market at the end of the outdoor season. Inventory handling cost was lower as we continue to see results from our cost-saving initiatives. Last-mile and other direct selling cost was negative, mainly driven by inflation-related cost increases for last-mile delivery.

The marketing costs increased slightly because of mix effects. Adjusted for currency and investments in tech platforms, salary-related costs were reduced by SEK 39 million compared to the same period last year. Finally, the increase in depreciation and amortization in relation to sales was primarily driven by weak sales and costs related to lease agreements. All in all, our EBIT margin amounted to 0.4% in the quarter.

Moving on to cash flow, Slide 14, please. Continued inventory reduction generated strong cash flow in the quarter. Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK 224 million. We aim to further reduce our inventory going forward, but not as fast as in previous quarters.

The right-hand graph showing the development in liquidity walks us through the starting period position of SEK 478 million, adding the cash flow from operations and the impact of investing activities, a majority of which is M&A related; and finally, deducting the financing activities, which includes proceeds from the share issue in December, amortization of leasing liabilities and interest payments, bringing us to the period end SEK 769 million of liquidity at hand.

Slide 15, please. The group's net debt amounted to SEK 1.2 billion at the end of the quarter and net debt in relation to LTM adjusted EBITDA ended at 4.28x. On top of our liquidity at hand, we had unutilized credit facilities at the end of the quarter of SEK 1.3 billion.

Acquisition-related liabilities have been reduced with close to SEK 900 million since the beginning of the year and amounted to SEK 369 million at the end of the quarter. Cash flow wise, no further payment will be made this year, but roughly SEK 50 million will be paid out during next year.

With that, I will hand it back over to you Gustaf to summarize and conclude.

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

Thank you very much, Jesper. I will do my best to summarize this. Balance sheet significantly strengthened so far in the year with more than SEK 1 billion in reduced interest-bearing liabilities. Continued strong cash flow, generating SEK 1.2 billion of cash so far in the year, primarily driven by inventory reduction. Several decisive actions to improve profitability, cost savings program on track and the execution of the restructuring program in Value Home segment, including sales of businesses and reduced retail store footprint.

We expect the market to remain challenging for the remainder of 2023 and also for 2024. Also in a challenging market, we must initiate actions to drive sales and expand. And some of these actions include intercompany sales, internationalization and marketplaces.

Looking forward, we will continue to prioritize cash flow and profit, but now with profit over cash flow. The main trends that has built BHG to what it is, the migration to the online channel and the interest in home and home environment remains unchanged, and we see no reason why we should not be able to take BHG back to the pre-pandemic levels of profitability and cash flow generation. And that -- this is our midterm focus.

Thank you very much for listening. And now Jesper and I will be available and do our very best to try to answer all your questions. Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Johan Fred from SEB.

[Johan Fred, analyst]

A first one -- first question regarding the inventory reduction. The pace is kind of -- you said that the pace is going to slow a bit, not as fast as in the previous quarter, but can we expect to see an impact already in Q4? Or will this manifest itself in 2024? And in that case, what's the potential magnitude? That's my first question.

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

Thank you very much for that question. Gustaf here. I would say that the majority of the future potentially inventory reduction, we will see rather in last year -- sorry, rather next year than this year. There is potential for some reduction also in Q4. But Q4 is also a quarter where we need to sort of bulk up for Black Friday, et cetera, et cetera.

So I think the majority of the future reductions you will see during next year and then most likely during Q2 and Q3.

[Jesper Flemme, executive]

And as I mentioned, at a slower pace than what we've seen during this year.

[Johan Fred, analyst]

Yes. Very clear. My next question is regarding the fixed cost that fell year-over-year. Will this trend continue into Q4? And can we sort of expect a larger sequential shift into Q4 compared to what we saw between Q2 and Q3, if you get my question?

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

Yes. We believe -- or we're confident that we will continue to see the cost reduction also into Q4. Some of the actions we have taken so far during the year will have its sort of effect also in the fourth quarter. So it will continue. I would say, roughly at the same pace that we have seen towards the last 2 quarters.

[Johan Fred, analyst]

Lovely. And you mentioned cost reliefs in -- on COGS. Will this have an impact on gross margin going forward? And if so, when can we expect this effect to take place and at what magnitude?

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

No, I think my answer will be almost the same as the last quarter. We -- I think we have managed to play the game, reducing prices and protecting the margin quite well. I don't foresee any potential upside going forward, to be honest.

[Johan Fred, analyst]

Okay. That was all of my questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Benjamin Wahlstedt from ABG Sundal Collier.

[Benjamin Wahlstedt, analyst]

A couple of short ones for me. So in the report, you talked about a slowdown towards the end of the quarter. And Gustaf, you mentioned in the presentation as well that you think this is partly weather-related. I was wondering, do you see a similar development for all business segments, please?

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

I think the seasonal pattern was roughly the same. But as we pointed out in the report, the sales development between the different segments is quite different. We have the toughest challenge right now in Home Improvement and Value Home. And I would say that in Value Home, it's very much driven by less renovations, which is a consequence also of the sort of lower activity in the housing market. But we actually have continued growth in Premium Living, which we're super happy with. So difference between the segments. And as I said, I think the majority of what we saw towards the end of Q3 was weather related.

[Benjamin Wahlstedt, analyst]

Yes. And as a follow-up on that then. You usually don't give any current trading statements, but given that you point out the weather is likely a big part of what made September slower. Do you have any comment on October so far? Is it better than September at all?

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

Sorry, but we don't comment on that. So I can't give you an indication. As we said, we don't give any forward-looking statements.

[Benjamin Wahlstedt, analyst]

Yes. Also, a question on marketing. You announced an increase in marketing costs due to mix effects. Could you elaborate on this point, please? Are you talking about the channel mix or a company mix here, please?

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

I mean we're doing a lot of efforts, and I think we're doing it quite successfully to lower our online marketing cost. And that is a key challenge for us right now. There will always be some mix effects because we have substantially different cost structures within different segments.

Home Improvement is really low on online marketing, where Value Home is super high on online marketing. So there will always be some mix effect between these different segments. I think that's the best I can give you right now, actually.

[Benjamin Wahlstedt, analyst]

Yes. So it's a company/segment mix effect you're talking about. Perfect. Those were all my questions for now.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers.

[Unknown Executive]

All right. We have 1 online question as well. And the question goes, do you have any more divestments now?

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

In general, as we said in the presentation, we are on a major road to fewer and larger platforms. The majority of what we have done so far has been in consolidations and the majority of what we have ahead of us is also in consolidations. We will never rule out any divestments or closures, but right now, we see no need in the foreseeable future for further closures or divestments. So the main focus now is on consolidations. Was there any further questions?

[Unknown Executive]

No [ further ] questions.

[Gustaf Ohrn, executive]

Thank you very much. Thank you for listening, and thank you.