Axfood AB
STO:AXFO
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Axfood AB
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Hello, and welcome to Axfood's Q3 report for 2022. [Operator Instructions] Today I'm pleased to present CEO, Klas Balkow; and CFO, Anders Lexmon. Please go ahead.
Thank you. And of course, good morning, everyone, and also thank you from our side of joining today's call. As you heard, with me today I have our CFO, Anders Lexmon, and we're here to present to you the third interim report for Axfood -- third quarter I would say.
In the Investors section of our website, you will find the presentation material for today's call, and a recording will also be made available. But with that, let's get started, and I would like you to turn to the next page, Page #2.
Here you'll find the agenda for today. First, we'll have a brief market overview and then I will go through the third quarter performance for Axfood. After that, Anders will take you through the financials. And following Anders part, I will talk you through some of our focus areas right now, which includes how we are currently managing our business in the exceptional time we are in with high inflation and supply chain disruptions, but also how we are building our business for the future. Lastly, before we open up for questions, I will remind you about the outlook for the full year 2022.
With that, go to Page #3. So starting with the market update, let me provide you with some comments on our current operating environment. With that, go to Page #4.
As you all know, we operate in a time with high inflation and changing market dynamics. Swedish households are facing substantial financial pressure as cost of living goes up. As a major food retail company, we have a responsibility to support consumer's ability to purchase affordable, good and sustainable food. But at the same time, we also have a responsibility to our suppliers to compensate for their increased cost and ensure that every part of the food supply chain is reasonably paid. And we are working systematically to find a healthy balance here between these 2 responsibilities. But in times such as these, consumer purchasing patterns change and now we see more evidence of the tendencies that we talked about when we released our interim report for the second quarter this year.
First of all, we see increased price consciousness. Value for money has become more important and it's clear that many people are searching for discounts as well as campaigns. And unfortunately, we observe also that consumers are moving away from sustainability label products, which often cost more since they are generally more expensive to produce.
While the inflationary environment is arguably the single most important factor behind changes in the market dynamics right now, at the same time we're also seeing continued post-pandemic normalization. Here, consumer's behavior returning to the norm before COVID-19 with higher customer traffic in physical stores, especially in the locations that were most negatively hit during the pandemic. But also we have seen a major recovery for cafes and restaurants. And let me remind you that when the pandemic broke out and all the restrictions were implemented, we saw a major volume shift from cafe and restaurants to food retail. With now the strong recovery for cafe and restaurants, we have seen a reversal of this trend.
Please go to next Page #5. Coming back and looking at the inflation a little bit more in detail. Over the past year, we have moved away from low food price inflation and even deflation to double-digit increases in food prices. The inflation rate continued to rise in the third quarter, reaching levels that we have not seen since the '80s. For the full quarter, food price inflation amounted to 14.5% according to Statistics Sweden. The inflationary pressure has been broad, covering a vast majority of products. Price increases have been most notable within the diary, oils, fats and coffee categories.
We are now on Slide #6. Market growth has increased substantially in recent months and amounted to 8.2% for the entire third quarter, entirely driven by higher prices. Sales in physical stores increased by 8.9%, while e-commerce sales decreased by 9.2%. As evidenced by the market data and in line with post-pandemic normalization, consumers continue to return to physical stores at the expense of e-commerce, driven by increased consumer traffic in central urban locations. The share of e-commerce was 3.7% during the third quarter, which is obviously significantly lower than the peak in early 2021, but however, still considerably higher than the level before the pandemic.
So that sums up the market overview and please go to next page, Page #7. And I would now like to move into Axfood's performance during the quarter. So please turn page again to #8. Axfood's retail sales grew strongly at 15.5% during the third quarter. As previously mentioned, the market gross rate amounted to 8.2%. So clearly, we are outperforming significantly once again. In the online segment, our sales declined 7.7%, which was less than the market, where the decline rate was minus 9.2%. However, if we exclude Mat.se, which was divested on March 1 this year, our sales increased by 4.5%. So our underlying performance was clearly better than the market.
Please go to the next page, Page #9. Consolidated net sales for Axfood grew by 36.1% during the third quarter and amounted to SEK 18.7 billion. And actually, on a rolling 12-month basis, we have now for the first time passed SEK 70 billion in net sales. This increase is attributable to Bergendahls Food acquisition, food price inflation, a continued strong recovery in both cross-border trade and convenience retail and volume growth in Balsta. The share of retail sales in our e-commerce was 4.8%, which is clearly higher than the market despite the divestment of Mat.se. So in other words, we continued to have more than our fair share online.
I will go through the sales by segment in more detail shortly. But first, please move to Page #10. In total, group operating profit amounted to SEK 975 million and the operating margin was 5.2%. The reported operating profit includes item affecting comparability, totaling minus SEK 40 million. And adjusted operating profit, excluding items affecting comparability amounted to just over SEK 1 billion. The increase in adjusted operating profits is mainly the result of strong growth in physical stores and the recovery of cross-border trade, volumes from the acquired Bergendahls food, the divestment of Mat.se and good cost control in the retail store chains.
Overall, this compensated from the increased purchasing prices not yet fully reflected in consumer prices, higher logistical costs and negative currency effects. The adjusted operating margin declined to 5.4%, mainly as a result of the lower operating margin in Dagab, which was partly a result of the dilutive effect from the consolidation of Bergendahls Food.
Let me now talk you through the segment and we are now on Page #11, we'll start with Willys. The net sales growth for Willys amounted to full 20%, while like-for-like retail sales increased by 18.3%. So exceptionally strong growth at more than double the rate of the market.
With the high inflation, consumer's increased focus on price value is clearly benefiting Willys with its position as a leading discount player in Sweden. Pricing and also volume growth from increased in-store customer traffic explains the Willys chain strong development during the quarter. And in addition, the post-pandemic recovery of cross-border trade continued. And Eurocash sales increased considerably compared with the preceding year and also exceeding the level in the third quarter 2019, i.e., before the pandemic. Operating profit for Willys segment increased to SEK 602 million, and the margin was 6.4%. The higher operating margin was due to substantial recovery of Eurocash.
Moving to next page #12. Willys is attracting a growing number of customers right now and are reaching more households than ever. And as I mentioned, even saw volume growth in the third quarter, which is a contrast to the market as a whole. But I do want to stress that Willys has increased its market share for a long time, also when inflation was at more normal levels. However, this year, Willys is clearly expanding its market outperformance even further. And this is a result of many years of development with a focus on establishing a clear, strong concept, striving for efficiency in operation, maintaining a high pace of store modernization and having an attractive e-commerce offering. Consumers are clearly rewarding Willys for its ambitions and dedicated work all these years, and it's not a coincidence that Willys is Sweden's most recommended food retail chain right now according to Commissioned YouGov survey.
Moving then to Hemkop in Slide #13. Net sales growth for Hemkop amounted to 10.2%, and like-for-like group owned retail sales increased by 9.7%. Retail sales for the Hemkop segment, which includes Tempo, increased by 7% in total and 6.4% on a like-for-like basis. As an effect of the recovery after the pandemic, the performance for larger stores in central urban locations were more favorable in the quarter than in the performance for stores near residential areas and also for the Tempo chain. However, in all, a solid development and we estimate that Hemkop chain is gaining market shares in the traditional grocery segment of the market. The operating profit for Hemkop amounted to SEK 77 million, and the operating margin was 4.8%. Growth in like-for-like sales was offset by negative mix effects in the assortment and a higher-than-usual share of sales from campaign activities.
Let me now comment on Snabbgross, so we move to #14. Snabbgross again displayed a very good performance in the third quarter with record sales and strong profitability. With relatively high comps, third quarter sales increased to 16.9% in total and 12.9% on a like-for-like basis. The strong sales growth was mainly due to the recovery of the cafe and restaurant market as well as food price inflation. Developments in newly established stores and sales to consumers through the membership-based Snabbgross Club store concept also contributed. With the [ sales development and ] effective cost control, Snabbgross' operating profit increased significantly in the quarter and amounted to SEK 90 million. The operating margin was on par with last year at 6.8%.
Turning now to the Dagab segment and please go to Page #15 on the presentation. With the contribution from Bergendahls Food, sales for Dagab increased by 39%. Sales growth, excluding Bergendahls Food amounted to 17.4% and was due to strong sales to store chains and convenience retailers. Operating profit came in at SEK 253 million, which corresponded to an operating margin of 1.5%. But items affecting comparability totaled minus SEK 56 million related to integration costs for Bergendahls Food as well as structural costs connected to the restructuring of the logistical operations. The adjusted operating profit, which includes the item affecting comparability amounted to SEK 309 million, and the adjusted operating margin was 1.8%.
This increase in operating profit was due to strong growth, higher volume from Bergendahls Food and the divestment of Mat.se. Operating profit was negatively impacted by higher fuel costs, a weaker Swedish krona and higher logistical costs. The latter is a result of lower delivery reliability caused by shortages of goods on the part of the suppliers as well as transport-related disruptions.
With that, I would like to hand over to Anders, who will present our financials. So please turn to the next page, #16. Anders, please go ahead.
Thank you very much, Klas, and good morning to you all. Let's turn to Page #17 in the presentation. Let me first sum up with the net sales and operating profit development for the first 9 months of the year. Net sales for the group increased with 31.6% to SEK 53.7 billion, including Bergendahls Food. Store sales increased by 9.7%, which was clearly higher than the food retail market in total. [ Sales ] growth amounted to 5%. The operating profit excluding positive items affecting comparability of SEK 103 million, increased by SEK 460 million to SEK 2.5 billion. The operating margin, excluding items affecting comparability decreased from 5% to 4.6%.
Items affecting comparability consist of a capital gain from the divestment of Mat.se, costs relating to the ongoing integration of Bergendahls Food, structural cost cut attributable to the establishment of the group's new logistics platform and lastly, payments received from [ food or product ] employers' liability insurance based on earlier premium payments.
And let's then turn to Page #18. If we then look at the cash flow for the period, we continue to have a higher operating profit compared to last year. And excluding one-offs, we see a positive operating development in all operating segments. We have a positive deviation of SEK 289 million in net working capital compared to last year, which mainly was explained by an increase in accounts payable.
We have no calendar effects during the period. Investing activities during the period increased with SEK 1.9 billion compared to last year, mainly due to our investments in automation. During the second quarter, Axfood carried out a fully subscribed rights issue of just below SEK 1.5 billion to finance the acquisition of Bergendahls Food and the minority interest in City Gross, and to also enable subsequent investments in our different operations. With this rights issue, we have further strengthened our financial position and created greater financial flexibility for the future. And in connection with the rights issue, we made a net debt amortization of SEK 1.1 billion of the revolving facility during the second quarter.
In September, a dividend of SEK 3.75 per share was paid out to the shareholders. The second part of this year's total shareholder dividend of SEK 7.75 per share, which was higher than the SEK 7.50 per share last year. And to summarize, total cash flow for the 9-month period this year amounted to minus SEK 439 million compared to SEK 809 million last year.
And then let's turn to Page #19. Total investments for the first 9 months amounted to SEK 1,709 million, SEK 500 million higher than the corresponding period during the prior year. The increase is mainly explained by the higher investments in our wholesale operation, which is well in line with our plan. During the 9-month period, SEK 745 million was invested in automation compared to SEK 444 million last year.
Investments in our retail operation was down somewhat compared to last year due to a lower pace in acquisitions and establishments and refurbishments were approximately in line with last year. Investments in our joint operation, mainly consisting IT was somewhat higher than last year.
Please turn to Page #20. During the first 9 months, net working capital as a percentage of sales on a rolling 12-month basis was minus 3.5%, higher than the minus 3.9% level at the end of last year. The net working capital was negatively impacted by the UTP regulation and was also diluted somewhat with the Bergendahls Food acquisition. And looking at the rolling 12 months net working capital, we have now captured the Bergendahls dilution effect and most of the negative UTP effect from the fourth quarter last year. We continue to work to mitigate these effects by first and foremost, improving payment terms on accounts payable and developing our supply chain financing program.
And we are now on Page 21. Net debt, excluding IFRS 16 decreased by SEK 700 million during the first 9 months to SEK 536 million, mainly as a result of the rights issue. However, also negatively impacted by automation investments. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio decreased to 1.2% and the equity ratio increased by 4.2 percentage points to 26.4% compared to the same period last year, and both improvements are explained by the rights issue.
During the quarter, Axfood's Holding in Mathem were revaluated at SEK 26 million, a decline of 75%. This noncash revaluation is in line with the substantial decline in value for comparable companies in the market, which has accelerated in the second half this year. The valuation corresponds to an EV sales multiple for the latest 12 months of 0.5%. Going forward, revaluation of the holding in Mathem will be conducted continuously in pace with the market development, and the revaluation has impacted the equity ratio with a minus 1.8 percentage points.
And let's then turn to Page #22. Capital employed increased with approximately SEK 1.3 billion compared to last year, mainly due to the acquisition of Bergendahls Food and capital employed was in line with the level at year-end 2021. And return on capital employed was 25.8%, higher than in the prior year as the operating profit increase more than offset the increase in capital employed.
And that was the end of my presentation calls, Klas, and thereby I hand over to you.
Thank you, Anders, and we'll move on, and let's go to Page #23. And I would like to give you a brief update on some of our focus areas right now and also some of the areas looking forward.
Let's move to the next page, Page #24. The current situation with high inflation pressure affects the entire supply chain from primary production to our own operations. We continue to see increased energy prices and the cost level for fuel has remained high. However, somewhat lower than during the second quarter this year.
We also see persistent disturbances in the transport sector and shortages of raw materials and packaging in the industry. So as you can imagine, navigating this and operating environment is challenging, but it's also something we work hard on to mitigate.
Earlier, I talked about shifting the consumption patterns due to inflation. We predict that the trends we are seeing right now, including the elevated price consciousness will continue for some time going forward. New behaviors require us to be flexible and be able to quickly optimize our offering. So we adjust and optimize our assortment and campaigns according to new preferences.
Our delivery liability is still lower than usual due to delays in incoming deliveries and the unusually rapid shifts in demand. We work closely with our suppliers to minimize disruptions. However, this has caused somewhat lower productivity in our supply chain.
Now where this is going is of course difficult to predict, but we continue to receive price increase pressure from our suppliers. So also going forward, at least in the short term, we think inflation will continue to increase.
Let's go to next page, Page #25. And then going into the energy cost, which is a widely discussed topic at the moment. Current price levels for electricity is a significant challenge to society and is fueling inflation. It impacts our suppliers by increasing their production cost and affects consumers by eroding their purchasing power. Higher prices on electricity is also a challenge for retailers operating stores, particularly on the country side.
Increasing our energy efficiency is something that we have worked on for many years. We strive to reduce our consumption of electricity and analyze ways in which we can become even more efficient. To contribute to reduced carbon footprint, our operations use green electricity. To promote the efficient use of resources, electricity is to be produced by solar panels on rooftops of stores and warehouses and surplus heat is to be captured. And in 2021, we purchased electricity amounted to 273 gigawatt hours.
While we, of course, track total consumption, it is also important for us to look at energy intensity, i.e. how efficient we are in our use. Our target is to reduce electricity consumption by 10% per square meter of store and warehouse area from the base year 2020 to 2025. And we are making good progress and are already halfway there to meet this target.
The decrease has primarily been attributable to investments in up-to-date premises, modern refrigeration system, installation of new freezer lids and doors and transition to LED lighting. As the electricity price is a significant commodity risk for us, we have many years work to secure our cost. If we look at next year, our hedges amount to more than 60% of our estimated consumption and they were negotiated some time ago at normal low price levels.
So to summarize, we are to a quite large extent protective going forward, although not fully. And how much we will be impacted is of course, a lot to do with future prices, which are obviously very difficult to predict.
With that, please turn to Slide #26. While we are focusing a lot on our current operating environment and changes in the dynamics, we're also looking ahead and continue to focus on investing for the future. In Balsta, outside Stockholm, the establishment of our new highly automated logistical center is in full swing and proceeding according to plan. We have now moved into the office part of the building and are preparing to implement the automation in stages in 2023.
In Landskrona, the establishment of the new fruit and vegetable warehouses is also proceeding according to plan and we will begin work on the manual section of the warehouse in the fourth quarter already this year. The integration process following the Bergendahls acquisition is proceeding according to plan. After the completion of the wholesale business integration in the second quarter this year, we continue now with the conversion of point-of-sale system in all City Gross stores to our IT platform. This work is expected to continue until the year-end.
Within the area of sustainability, we continue to have high [Technical Difficulty] and with the topic of energy in mind, I would like to highlight our initiatives with regard to solar energy. First, we completed the installation of large rooftop solar panels on the new logistical center in Balsta. Secondly, also on the topic of solar power, we are working on the installation of a new facility at our fruit and vegetable warehouse in Landskrona. And lastly, we're also in the permitting process to build Sweden's largest onshore solar park.
Moving then to Slide 27, and we'll go into the outlook. And the outlook for the year is unchanged. As communicated before, the full year 2022 operating profit will be charged with certain structural costs associated with the transition to the new Laggesta Center and the integration of Bergendahls Food, totaling approximately SEK 340 million. Capital expenditures are expected to amount to between SEK 2.6 billion and SEK 2.7 billion, excluding acquisitions and right-of-use assets. And as a reminder, we continue to plan to establish 8 to 13 new stores.
Now turning to the final page of the presentation. Please go to Page #28. And with that, let me summarize. Our third quarter of 2022 has been a quarter with substantial growth and increased market share in particular for Willys. We are now operating in an exceptional time, but are well positioned and have a high capacity to navigate our current operating environment despite challenges, most notably due to the inflation and supply chain disruptions.
The City Gross store conversions are proceeding in line with plan, and we continue to take steps towards a new optimized and automated logistical platform. As you heard from Anders, we have a strong financial position and a solid agenda for continued growth.
So that ends our presentation for today, and I now would like to hand over to the operator to open up the line for questions. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Niklas Ekman at Carnegie.
A couple of questions from my end. Firstly, on Willys. Obviously, a very strong like-for-like growth here. Is there any way you can break out how much of this is related to the Willys format, excluding Eurocash? And on the topic of Eurocash, can you say how far you were from 2019 levels during Q3?
Yes. Niklas, well, even if we're not breaking this out, one could -- when you look at it, when we were hit by Eurocash, we talked about 3%, 4% on the Willys segment negatively impacted. So you can see that is kind of reversible at this stage. So with that, we have a very strong, you know, performance in Willys, even excluding Eurocash. As I think I mentioned it, actually Niklas that we actually saw in the third quarter that Eurocash is having a higher sales versus what we saw in the third quarter 2019, i.e., before the pandemic. So you know, we talked about this for a long time and I know you've asked several questions and we didn't see it was picking up. Last time we saw, it was going in the right direction, it was not fully there. Now we even have like-for-like that is above 2019 levels.
Super, super. And I'm sorry if I missed that from your presentation.
No, no, no. Go ahead.
Another question, just on group margins here. They sell a little bit more than in the previous 3 quarters, even though you had easier comparisons. You talked about some costs here, but is there any particular cost increases here versus what you've seen before? Is it more campaigns compared to before or is it a lag in terms of forwarding input cost increases or how would you compare Q3 to the previous 2, 3 quarters?
Well, I think it's not of a big shift there. We've seen a massive, as you noted, a massive price inflation during just this quarter. And obviously, there's a kind of a time lag in this. So we are not been able to fully reflect the increase in the consumer pricing. But clearly, it is lifting up. The intensive campaigns is also there. But I would say, if you look at the numbers, the dilution on Bergendahls, obviously the key part here.
Of course. And on the topic of food inflation, you mentioned here that you expect food inflation to continue to rise and it was over 16% in September. Do you have any guess on where this could be within the next 3, 4 months? Are we talking 20% plus or what was your best guess?
Well, your guess, I won't say it's as good as mine because obviously I'm a bit closer to it. But I'm a bit, you know, careful of giving you any numbers here. But again, we still have not reflected all the price increases that we see so far and that this is something that takes time in the market as you've seen. We've seen in the previous quarters, so I think we will continue to see that. And then we are now seeing further, you know, pressure from the suppliers. And I think it very much relates back to also how this will turn out. For many suppliers, it is obviously signaling that energy cost is a real burden. Someone is also -- actually it's been very challenging. So there's several factors now implementing, but I think energy is a key one and where this will go during this winter who knows.
Yes. Yes. Fair enough. And just lastly, is there any way you can quantify your guess here on the costs related to the shift to automation? Obviously, you've had a lot of investments now. But this is now going live in -- starting I think in Q4, but then throughout 2023. Do you have an estimate of how much this could impact your adjusted EBIT for the next few quarters?
I think we'll have to come back with that and help you with that number. Obviously, we are in a transition 2023. We have outlined that and we have shown that part. And obviously, we do that in a controlled way. So we will have some extra cost during the transition period, and we'll have to come back, Niklas, with any further guidance on that.
Can you at least tell us just on the timing here when exactly will you start shipping the goods and when will kind of be the peak of the transition?
We will start basically early -- I mean, we are well in line with our plan and we actually will start early next year with the first dry area, and then we'll take it gradually. So we will take stores and we will start to shift, so we see the system is really working nicely as we expect it to be. So it will be a ramp-up basically because you can see that we will start it and we have -- as we have shared and informed, we will get the -- we will take over the building now in Q4 and then we will gradually build up the business in Balsta. At the same time, we will keep the current warehouse and gradually transform first with the dry area, then with the chilled and lastly with the freeze. So it will be a, you know, I would say a gradual ramp up.
Our next question from Gustav Hageus at SEB.
I have a few, if I may. Firstly, on supply chain. You referenced this as a negative in the quarter and looking at this number, delivery reliability, as you pointed out in the report, it dropped to 90.2% now year-to-date. I think it was 91% in Q2 year-to-date and some 95% last year. So does that mean that the supply chain situation is getting worse or could you elaborate a bit on the drivers here?
Gustav, I must say that I think it's probably decades we've seen this kind of service levels. And of course, it has many things that has impacted this, not at least the war breakout. But it's difficult to say how quickly it will improve. In the end of the quarter, I think we are going in the right direction. We were on poor levels during the summer, I would say. So it is slightly going in the right direction. But I have to say it is right now difficult to say where this will end up and how quickly it will reverse. It's not only, you know, one can think it's small suppliers, but it's actually large suppliers that has issues with materials and packaging materials, et cetera. And then in addition to that, everyone in the whole industry is struggling a bit with the transport sector. So -- but right now here now I think it's going in the right direction, so it doesn't go further south. And obviously, we work on all things we can do to mitigate this. But I expect it to be a challenging situation also in the coming months.
Okay. And then I was thinking about the other aspect of inflation being salary negotiations for 2023. Could you remind us of your current negotiation agreements with the main unions and the schedule for when new negotiations will take place? And I fully understand it's a bit sensitive to have a view, official view from your part this early. But perhaps if you can point us any other geographies or industries you think are relevant to understand where inflation on the salary side is going?
A very relevant question, obviously. But also -- let me try to answer some of the questions at least. Our agreement last to the next spring, so April 1. And if I look at how it normally will end up, you know, we'll go into the negotiations beginning next year. As you also know that there is a very, you know, common procedure in Sweden, where we have the industry mark that is negotiated first with, hopefully, a majority of the unions and then we will follow that. So now how this will turn out is obviously too early for me and I'm not sure that I even know how it will turn out, because obviously, there is a very common understanding. I believe that this could further increase the inflation pressure which is -- no one is benefiting from that, but also, of course, on the other side it is -- the inflation pressure we see right now is a hit towards to the workers. So -- but how this will turn out, well, I think I have to see.
And then on CapEx, you tend to give a guidance, I think Q4 rate for the next year. But if you could still front a little bit by saying -- giving us some clarity on what are the spillovers from the ongoing projects that you have announced in terms of Landskrona, Balsta, City into 2023. And if you could also update us on where you consider roughly the maintenance CapEx level is now going forward?
Well, Gustav, as you mentioned, we have -- also we see next year, we will have some investments in Automation Solutions, of course, connected somewhat to Balsta and also to our fruit and vegetables facility in Landskrona as you said. So -- but we have to come back to the exact amount next year. And I mean, the maintenance, I don't know if you mean the underlying investment, so to speak. Yes.
Sure. If you don't, sort of, expand your business, would you rather raise CapEx?
As we grow in the business, we also grow the underlying investment. So it's hard to give you any exact figures on that actually.
But it hasn't changed that much over the year. And I think also to add on it, you know, we have guided on the investment of these large platforms and we are still in line with these investments. And then so, but how much will turn out next year, we'll give you guidance on that in Q4 as normal.
All right. And finally for me, you mentioned electricity 60% hedged into next year. Does this include your solar panel generation or is that a material number on top of this? And I'm sort of trying to understand what's your actual dependency on spot prices in Q4, Q1, which I guess will be the main quarters in terms of electricity costs?
I understand. Well, that is the hedges -- I mean, the hedge is based on the forecasted consumption. So then the solar is on top. But the solar is -- I mean, with the same material -- in general terms I would not say it's really material. It's like 10%, 15% of the use in Balsta. So still kind of a minor part versus the total operation that we have even if we are continuing to work on driving that agenda, not only on the warehouses but also in stores. So -- but to answer your question, the hedge is related to the forecasted consumption. And so the solar will come on top.
Our next question comes from Magnus Raman of Kepler Cheuvreux.
I'd like to ask first about the implied negative volume growth in the [ retail ] market and how would you explain that? I guess we shouldn't expect people eating much less now compared to same period last year.
Magnus, well, I think -- I'm actually a bit glad that you in a way raised that question. I think it's been kind of outlined in several medias and so forth that the decline in volume is significantly due to inflation, I think obviously has impacted. But clearly, as we tried to show there on one of our graphs, that we have to remind ourselves that when the restriction broke out for the pandemic, we saw a clear volume lift into our parts of the business or the food retail part of the business when the restaurant dropped. Now if you look at the restaurant business, which maybe is a bit odd to see, but they continue to boom and they have a significant growth versus last year. So obviously, it is a reversal of this trend where consumers are eating more in restaurants versus last year. And obviously, that volume is taken from somewhere and obviously it's taken from the retail side.
So it is -- we are kind of in a -- I would also say in a mixed situation where the high inflation is putting pressure on consumers, but also we still continue to see that consumers take -- spend time in restaurants and eat more out versus last year, and that has impacted the volume.
Great. That's helpful. Then on your pricing strategy now in this market environment, do you think that it refers to how key competitors are acting currently when we see this shift in consumer preferences? For example, are you maintaining the intended price gap between Willys and Mat.se?
We are very dedicated to our pricing strategy, and we continue to drive that. And so that still sticks and it's one of our most important KPIs.
I don't know if that answers your question. But the answer is, yes, we continue our strategy and we continue to drive that. And then as you can imagine, of course, in times like this with so rapid shifts, the different actors is acting on pricing, we do that continuously and there is a mix effect in this and all that obviously, but. So there could be some changes from 1 week to another and so forth, depending on what kind of campaigns you have and so forth. But overall, the direction is the same.
Okay. So if I should understand you, perhaps that maybe ICA has lined in its price adjustments somewhat in your opinion due to what you've done yourself and you expect them to follow suit? Otherwise, I guess there is no reason to defend your pricing strategy?
Yes, but I didn't say that. But obviously it's fairly clear in the market that when you have -- as an example, when you have fully grouped loans chain, we are somewhat faster to act on pricing changes, both of up and down.
That makes sense, clearly. All right. And then just on Eurocash, Niklas touched upon it already in his question. But there are some credit card data reports that suggest that the overall cross border trade in Norway down over 10% in Q3 relative to the same period in 2019 and now you mentioned that you were up. So how would you explain that? Is it your opinion that Norwegians now prioritize groceries so that it's other categories like discretionary or something that is behind the overall drop, or is it so that Eurocash is gaining market share versus sort of competitors in the grocery space in the cross border?
Yes. I think -- as I don't have the market data from all the players, that's not existing in that way. But I think one way we talked about it earlier on that when we had the restrictions, we decided to keep staff. We decided to modernize, we decided to rebuild, and we have decided to refresh our stores. So we should be really ready when the border open up again. And I think in one way we are benefiting from that decision at this stage. So then how related to the shopping patterns and from credit card notes, the only thing I can refer to is that we are, from our side, back on better levels, which I think is related to that Eurocash is strengthening its position at this stage.
Great. Then the increased consumer attention to discount and the sort of positive effect and attention to the Willys brand, does that affect your planning on expansion, store expansion and so on? And also the depressed overall market, does that open more opportunities in your view when it comes to store locations and offers on that side?
As you know, there are fairly long lead times on these things and I think we are -- our strategy remains that we have, as you have seen historically, open up more Willys stores, but also open up more other stores from Hemkop, Tempo and Snabbgross, because we believe that, you know, where we find spots that fits -- the various concepts is where we should locate. So we'll continue to drive that. And then looking ahead, we have a strong pipeline of new stores coming in. And we'll continue to look for new locations. Clearly though, that Willys as I also mentioned, is reaching out more and it's very highly recommended food retailer, obviously open up also for more places that want to have a Willys, which is obvious to our benefit. But there are long lead times on this.
Great. Just a final one perhaps to Anders. I'm tying into previous questions here about the transition next year and costs. Could you, Anders, perhaps help us with just a very approximate number for the annual operating cost of the 7 old fulfillment centers that you are now about to wind down?
As Klas mentioned before, we will come back to describe the effects next year coming to the transition in Balsta and the cost rating to that.
So it is easier to calculate in a way you have fully rent levels, and then we are gradually transforming -- transferring staff based on how we are building up the volume.
Our next question comes from Fredrik Ivarsson at ABG.
First a question on the mix effect. You mentioned that you saw negative mix in Hemkop and maybe first what changes in shopping baskets have the sort of biggest impact on the margins at the moment? And then also if you could mention what you see in Willys, because I don't think you said anything about negative mix there. So what's the mix, I suppose, neutral in Willys or was it just not as significant as in Hemkop?
The mix didn't impact the results as much as it did in Hemkop. So that's why I commented on Hemkop. But obviously, we have mix effects now, it moves very fast. The key shift here is obviously campaigns and how they are impacting in a way. So that is the key comment there, where you have shifts in -- yes, in the range, but also a majority of this is in the campaigns because the attractiveness of campaigns is now higher than before. And I would say you have them also on Willys, but obviously, they are driving. It didn't impact there because their volume was significantly higher in total.
Perfect. And the second one on Eurocash, I'm sorry if I missed this. But you said clearly that you're above 2019 in terms of sales. Does that also go for earnings?
Okay. Well, a key driver for us is obviously like-for-like growth. And as I said, like-for-like is also above, and that is actually the key driver for us in a way. And as I pointed out, the margin pickup is basically an effect of the Eurocash pickup for the Willys segment. So clearly, profit was also coming back.
Excellent. And then a question on rent levels, because with higher inflation rates, you will obviously see the rent levels coming up a bit as well. Do you have any sense or guidance for us of that magnitude for next year?
No. I think the rent cost is outlined in -- but I think the -- it's going to be decided soon in terms of where you have the KPIs and how -- and majority of our rents is also related to this inflation KPIs. And if you look at that on a yearly basis where it's going to be in October, going, I think you are on a 10% level or so. That would be an estimate to calculate on.
Yes, makes sense. And one last quick from my side. I was just curious to hear if you can share the increase of the total numbers of Willys Plus members or -- yes, any number on that?
Yes, I understand. And I actually don't sit with that number handy right now. I think we maybe have to come back to that through Alex.
Our next question comes from Daniel Schmidt at Danske Bank.
Klas and Anders, a couple of questions from me. Coming back to the discussion on sort of trends that have been reversing and you mentioned, Klas, that sort of the [ Eurocash ] market, of course, have taken back a lot of share, and that is impacting the retail market when it comes to volumes. But are you also seeing any signs that basket sizes are shrinking?
Well, yes. In terms of items, I mean, there is a clear -- I think I commented that last time also, we saw an indication of that and that is continuing that consumers in general shop -- every time they come in, they shop a little bit fewer, not much; fewer items in their bag, and they come in a little bit more frequent.
Okay. Good. And another question on mix. Does it surprise you that private label in Hemkop is down year-over-year? It's up in Willys, which makes more sense to me, but it's actually down in Hemkop.
Well, not necessarily a surprise. I think we are -- and I think that is a general also trend. In our industry, there's slow moves, if I may say so. It takes time. And I think you'll -- gradually we see these trends moving. But it could swing from a quarter to another quarter, depending a bit on what kind of campaigns you have had, et cetera. I also talked about some of the supply chain issues. We've also had also, obviously, on the private label side, some shortages that we have to handle. So it could swing in the quarter somewhat. The overall trend I think and expect to continue is the price value will be even more important and that will also be valid for Hemkop, where private label is one part of driving price hike.
Yes. All right. Okay. So just temporary then maybe. And then just coming back to the concepts. Overall, and clearly, Willys is beating everyone's expectation by a mile and Hemkop is also doing quite well. What about City Gross, sort of how are they sort of faring in this environment?
As you know, we have decided that City Gross is -- you have to talk to them about it because we still only have 9.9%. So they are the one who is handling the communication about their performance and how they are doing. And I'm glad to leave that to City Gross management, if that's okay with you.
Yes. And last one, not one maybe. But next week I think Costco is going to open in Stockholm and are planning to open in Malmo next year as well. What's your view on that or do you hear anything about bigger plans than 2 stores and -- yes, any sort of color on that?
I have heard as much as you have heard. They have -- they open up next week. They also planned another store south of Sweden. There's been at least in media a discussion of up to 5 stores. We'll see. I think as everyone, they probably go and they see how it is being received and then I think that will decide further on. I think the only comment I have is obviously that membership retail is something that we've not seen much of in this part of the world. While U.S. is big, but we started as you know with membership with Snabbgross Club a couple of years ago. So based on also that we want to be ahead of this and get the learnings out of it. So -- and from our side, as you've seen, we have a seen a very good progress of new members coming in, so. But it's going to be interesting to follow.
Yes. But you haven't sort of tried to dissect the pricing -- maybe it's not visible yet -- and compare that pricing to your pricing?
It's not.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Nicklas Skogman at Handelsbanken.
I got 2 or 3 questions, we'll see. So the first one is on food inflation. So the headline number for food and drink inflation reported by SCB was, as you said, 14.5%. But if you look at sort of your mix, the products you sell and try to sort of establish what the food inflation is based on that. Is that a lower number than the one that's reported by the SCB, what do you think?
We are only commenting on the SCB numbers. But I think the SCB is reflecting the whole market and it is a fair assumption that we are all not that far away from it.
Okay. Good. And then second on sort of looking into next year, you talked about the rent increases and then, you know, electricity prices and so on, higher salaries potentially. But wouldn't it be fair to expect that you and your competitors will pass these higher costs on to consumers? Because, I mean, that's what you normally do in this line of business and that all these costs are hitting your competitors as well. So shouldn't that be the basic assumption?
I think you all have to make your conclusions, obviously. But as you're pointing out that -- and I think I tend to refer to that. We are still a low-margin business and we're all driving to develop our business and to invest in our business, et cetera. And over time, historically, we have seen that when the cost goes up or when obviously production or other general competitive neutral cost goes up, it's being reflected. So now with that said, we obviously work hard on other areas where we can -- how to become more efficient and to become more productive, et cetera. So we'll continue equally hard to do that, obviously. But I think that the, you know, as you point out, the cost structure is coming from the supplier side and then we'll add some more on the retail side next year and I think over time it will be reflected.
Thank you. There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the word back to the speakers for any closing remarks.
Well, not more than thank you for listening and thanks for a lot of good questions, and have a good day. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.