Atrium Ljungberg AB

STO:ATRLJ B

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q3

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

Welcome to Atrium Ljungberg Q3 presentation. The heading of this report is challenging time provide new conditions.

As a start, I want to update you on our overall key figures. Our property value at the end of the quarter was SEK 61 billion; and the contracted annual rent, SEK 2.4 billion. Offices is our largest segment with 68% of the property value and retail stands for 20%.

The focus is on Sweden's four big cities and Stockholm stands for 80%. Letting rate was 91%, and the gearing ratio was 41%.

In February, we launched our 2030 agenda where we will invest SEK 30 billion up to the year 2030 and thereby double our net operating income and property value. To that end, we must also achieve our sustainability goals.

The world around us has now changed at a rapid pace, and we are in the middle of energy crisis, double-digit inflation and rising interest cost. The goal to invest in profitable projects, build an attractive city and thus create shareholder value remains. However, a certain time shift might occur. But in the end, it depends on how the market and especially how employment and house prices in Stockholm develop.

The focus here and now is above all, to improve earnings in management. We will have a major focus on costs going forward, generally, but especially around energy. We are in the process right now linked to our budget. Everyone in the business is getting started to work, and I feel a great commitment to the issue. It's not the first time in the world's history that times are tough. It's about changing quickly. We will get out of this situation. The question is not if, but when.

In the first half of the year, we had a strong net letting and landed at almost SEK 100 million. The third quarter has been characterized by a more pending situation, but the agreements we signed have been signed on really good levels, and we landed our net letting of the quarter of SEK 28 million.

Here, you can see examples of four biggest lettings during the third quarter. We have signed a contract for a hotel in Katarinahuset of 4,000 square meters; Froda of 1,400 square meters also in Katarinahuset; Best of Brands in Sickla where the previous owner went bankrupt; and we have signed a new contract with a new company. And Apple has also expanded on Drottninggatan. I would also like to mention that we have renegotiated Atlas Copco's agreement in Sickla for 20,000 square meters until 2034.

We have a well-diversified contract portfolio where our 10 largest customers amount for 20% of the revenue. Of this 20%, 9% is revenue from state and municipality. 97% of our income, excluding housing, parking, property tax and turnover-based rents are linked to index. We estimate index to increase our revenue next year with about SEK 150 million. The average contract period is 4.4 years.

Offices are our biggest source of revenue with 54%. Customer durables, our second largest part of the revenue, represent 17% over our total revenue.

In durable goods, we have a mix of players. Given the economic situation, it is likely that the consumption will go down, and I'm most concerned about the players in clothing, shoes and restaurants. But in worst times, there are players who also tend to do really well, especially those in the low-price segment.

At the same time, e-commerce shows a reduced turnover of 13% from January to August this year compared to the previous year. It is important to understand that there is a wide range of players customer durables. In the 17% of nondurable goods, 25% is for clothes and shoes and the remaining percentage of actors are concepts such as Hemtex, Silveira, Elgiganten, Jysk, Clas Ohlson, so there will be a Dollar Store sports and et cetera. And we have over time worked to reduce the percentage of clothing in favor of more activities and health-related services.

It is an advantage of our urban development strategy that we have -- can be flexible in the content depending on demand.

The condominium market has been very cautious during the quarter. There are significantly fewer apartments being sold now than before the summer, and prices in Stockholm are down 10%.

We have two projects in production. In Sickla and Nacka, 44% are booked sold, and in Gränbystaden 65%. We have increased the percentage of sales in the quarter but the process are considerably longer.

We completed our second project in Sickla this quarter. I'll come back to that.

The first 9 months, the transaction volume in Sweden amounted to approximately SEK 140 billion, which is a decrease of 30% compared to the previous year when several structural deals were carried out.

After the summer, very few deals have been made. Several deals have been out on the market but has not been completed. In a market situation like this, it's more difficult than usual to know where the yield requirements are. What is clear is that the yield requirement varies greatly depending on the property segment and location.

For my own part, I don't think that offices in real good location have been affected that much, which is confirmed by the transaction of [ Västerås ] City of Stockholm, which was sold for SEK 145,000 per square meter and included offices and hotel, which indicates a yield of under 3% if you adjust for the hotel. I think the yield requirements on rental properties have moved the most.

So there are buyers in the market, institution, private actors and funds can be found on the buy side.

And now I will hand over to our CFO, Ulrika Danielsson.

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

In the third quarter, in isolation, we delivered a profit before changes in value of SEK 347 million, equal to SEK 2.75 per share, which means a growth of 33%. Given today's external situation, it is a good delivery, and it is explained by improved NOI with mainly completed projects and acquisitions contributing, good rental growth in comparable portfolio, we are going from an annual rate of 2.3% to almost 4%. However, it is eaten up by increased costs which is why the contribution to NOI growth is positive but low in like-for-like.

Profit settlement from our co-op development in Sickla of [ SEK 56.7 million ]. Higher interest rates of roughly SEK 30 million, of which SEK 17 million is volume-driven as a result of acquisitions and projects; SEK 5 million is lower capitalized interest rates; and the remaining SEK 8 million is higher average interest rate.

So our fixed income portfolio has some resilience to market interest rate's powerful performance.

Changes in the value of derivatives and properties are small but net positive in the third quarter, which means that profit after tax is SEK 432 million.

Together with the earnings in the first half of the year, this means a profit after tax in total of SEK 5.3 billion, equal to SEK 42 per share.

Two key figures that express financial risks are interest coverage ratio and net debt-to-EBITDA. The former is roughly the same as in Q2 despite higher interest rates, indicating that underlying earnings have increased much more.

The debt ratio was disrupted in Q2 by our two major acquisitions, but as time passes and earnings to our own, it will fall further.

As I mentioned earlier, we have had good growth in our rental income, an increase of 3.9% excluding one-offs, and SEK 4.4 million, including one-offs, which is clearly better than the midyear 2.3%. Increased growth is mainly explained by lower vacancies and increased charging of electricity and property tax to our tenants.

Property costs increased with SEK 50 million in like-for-like, of which electricity accounts for roughly SEK 25 million and property taxes for roughly SEK 15 million. And on the electricity cost, which is charged roughly 50%, while increased property tax is charged in full.

Since the rate of increase in cost is higher than that of revenues, this means that growth in like-for-like will go from 1.3% in the first half year to 1% now in Q3.

And yes, as in Q2, we have received a large contribution from completed developments and transactions made, which is why our NOI in total increases by SEK 109 million or roughly 10%.

Our total assets amounts to SEK 65 billion, of which the major part is properties. The investment properties are valued at an average of SEK 60,000 per square meter and a valuation yield of 4.15%.

During the year, we have net invested roughly 10%, equal to SEK 5 billion of our own size divided into SEK 1.7 billion in already existing properties and developments, SEK 3.7 billion in acquisitions.

We have also divested a small commercial property in the second quarter. And in the third quarter, we have deducted profits from our co-op developments in Sickla with a profit of [ SEK 56.7 million ].

The LTV increased in Q2, which is explained by our acquisitions to fall back slightly in Q3, all according to plan. And the owners' capital increased by 16% during the year, adjusted for dividends paid, and amounted to SEK 280 per share at the end of Q3.

In the third quarter, the values did not move net but gross. We have written up the values in the third quarter by roughly SEK 1.2 billion due to increased cash flow, which is basically driven by three factors: change index assumption for 2023 time and may complete renegotiations and leases. And the indexations assumption has gone from 5% in Q2 to 7% now in Q3. And this assumption can be considered conservative, given that development so far rather points to at least 10% but should be seen as a way to fend off other uncertainties in cash flows, such as cost development last quarter and vacancies.

But then we have written down the values with almost as much linked to higher yield assumptions. Few transactions are made in the third quarter to provide sufficient guidance, but we feel pretty confident that the values aren't going up.

After much reasoning with external appraisers and ourselves, we have landed in yield adjustments that led to a weighted average increase of 11 basis points versus Q2. We have pulled part yields in the portfolio where, at one extreme, we have residentials with presumption rents where we have increased the yield by 50 basis points; two central offices in Stockholm that we have not touched at all. And in between comes everything else.

As you all know, the world central banks are focused on vigorous inflationary action through higher interest rates and reduced quantity measures. The Riksbank in Sweden raised its key interest rate by 75 basis points in the first half of the year and after the summer raised another 100 basis points. More hikes are expected and their own forecast is that the interest rate will reach 2.5% by the beginning of next year.

The short-term market rate, the so-called 3-month STIBOR has increased almost 180 basis points this year and the market is pricing in a continuous steep price to about 350 basis points next year. As a result, the market is pricing in sharp interest rate increases than the Riksbank indicates.

In addition, conditions for issuers on the Swedish capital market have deteriorated significantly since the middle of the second quarter. Since then, there are a few bond issues have been carried out by real estate companies with a corresponding rating SS, Baa2. Screen prices for a 5-year bond indicates 370 basis points in margin, which is an increase of roughly 200 basis points since the turn of the year.

The short part of the capital market, the CP market, has had hesitant investors, which has led to higher prices and lower volumes. For example, for 3 months of maturity, the price has gone from about 25 basis points at the beginning of the year to 60 basis points above STIBOR.

As far as banks are concerned, just look at their own borrowing costs. Even they pay higher credit margins. Thus, one should expect even rising margins in banking. For now, it's around 20 to 30 basis points, and we will see if it will be enough in the future and how have we navigated in an environment like this.

After two major acquisitions, increased debt volume and the addition of new credit facilities in Q2, we have tried to nurture liquidity and worked on the derivatives portfolio. We have increased the interest rate erosion slightly and reduced the proportion of floating debt from 27% in Q2 to 20% in Q3 by entering into new swaps in August where the 10-year old was down to 220 basis points and reshuffled within existing derivatives portfolio, activities that does have limited risk without significant impact on the average interest rate.

The fact that our average funding cost increased by 20 basis points in the third quarter is thus largely attributable to STIBOR increasing in the market by about 90 basis points. And given how market interest rates have moved and will move, it has been a good measure.

Our tied-up capital amounts to 4.4 years and has fallen since Q2 due to the passage of time. We added both large bond issues and new bank agreements in Q2, and for this reason, we have not added any new credits in Q3. However, this quarter, we have been able to increase outstanding CPs by roughly SEK 0.5 billion.

At the end of Q3, we have available liquidity of roughly SEK 7.9 billion in the form of cash and unutilized credit facilities. It more than covers upcoming maturities that we have in the bond market, SEK 900 million this autumn for the fourth quarter, so to say, and roughly SEK 1.3 billion next year evenly distributed between the quarters and, of course, the outstanding CPs.

We have positive dialogues with all our relationship banks to ensure that additional credit supply is available in the future if the need should rise. The support is strong, we feel.

So all-in-all, I would say, a debt portfolio that has not increased since Q2; diversified financing, relatively long interest in capital tied up; only 20% floating debt; and SEK 7.9 billion in available liquidity guarantee that we will be able to navigate to change rules of the game to land out in a new normal. However, it requires us to be financially disciplined and nurture our financial metrics.

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

Thank you, Ulrika. Then I thought I'll finish with a few words about our project portfolio.

In the third quarter, we completed our second condominium project, Konstharts at Nobelberget in Sickla. The project profit amount to SEK 56 million, corresponding to 20% project's profit.

At the end of Q3, we had ongoing construction of SEK 8.3 billion, of which SEK 4 billion remains to be invested. Of ongoing projects, SEK 7.2 billion is investment in properties that are developed to own with an estimated project profit of 50% corresponding to SEK 4 billion, of which SEK 2.5 billion has already been reported.

Furthermore, we have ongoing condominium production of SEK 1.1 billion with a market value of SEK 1.3 billion, which will be reported as the projects are completed.

We newly decided project in Station House in Slakthusområdet area, work on the subway station has begun. The property comprises 16,400 square meters lettable area with a total investment of SEK 1.6 billion. The rental value amounts to SEK 86 million. Completion is estimated for the second quarter of 2027.

I want to remind you about the addition to the Katarinahuset, where the building permit has been appealed and where the County Administrative Board has given a negative notice. We have appealed to the land and environmental court.

Here is a concrete example of us continuing our core business but managing to adapt to new conditions. In July, we signed a development agreement in Hagastaden regarding to residential blocks of 440 apartments and an office block of 21,000 square meters. Total investment volume amounts to approximately SEK 5 billion.

The common garage for the block in the first stage of the project and construction will start in the autumn of 2022. The development will take place in stages and is expected to be completed in 2030. The important thing is in this exploitation agreement is that we managed to negotiate like a rubber band with the flexibility in when we have to start in order to meet the market in the best way.

And then finally, a reminder of where our -- of our core business, our biggest development projects, four places in Stockholm where we have a subway station or will have one. Total investment for these four areas is approximately SEK 30 billion and 600,000 square meters where the largest element is offices and housing.

It is in times like this it's time to change. We have just returned from our conference we held with all our colleagues, and I'm so impressed by the team spirit and commitment we have in our organization. And I'm convinced that we're going to come through these times well. Thanks to our talented and committed employees.

And by that, we close our Q3 presentation. And if you have any questions, you can send an e-mail to me or Ulrika. Thank you very much, and goodbye.