Atrium Ljungberg AB

STO:ATRLJ B

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q2

[Mattias Vahlne]

Welcome to today's quarterly presentation by property company Atrium Ljungberg, presenting the results for the second quarter in 2023.

After the presentation, a Q&A session will take place, where you can write your questions to the company in the interface.

So please welcome today's speakers, CEO Annica Anas and CFO Ulrika Danielsson. Please go ahead.

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

Thank you very much.

The heading for this report is net letting remains positive while profit from property management continues to show solid growth. I would like to start to summarize and highlight a few things from this report.

Our property portfolio looks very similar to last quarter, with 80% of the value in Stockholm. The biggest segment, office, stands for 63% of the total value. Our net letting amounted to SEK 25 million in the second quarter and SEK 36 million first half year. Termination from our side due to upcoming projects amounted to SEK 2 million in the first quarter and SEK 5 million in the first half year. Our profit from property management increased by 24% in Q2, and the like-for-like figure in operating net increased by 15%.

We have today ongoing projects with an investment of SEK 7 billion, where SEK 4.4 billion remains to be invested. Of the projects being completed in '23 and '24, the pre-letting is 66%. As I mentioned in the beginning, we have a big focus on Stockholm both in our existing properties and in our upcoming investments. The major areas are Hagastaden, Slussen, Slakthusområdet and Sickla, all areas where we have a subway in Stockholm or to where the subway will be extended the coming years. I think we have a unique position in our locations in Stockholm. During this quarter, we have launched our vision in Sickla, Stockholm Wood City. I will come back to this in the end of the presentation.

In the first 2 quarters, we have signed agreements corresponding to SEK 98 million in annual rent, providing that -- proving that demand remains high for office space in great locations. However, we also note that companies are focusing on their costs. And we have received terminations from customers corresponding to an annual rent of approximately SEK 62 million. The locations in Greater CBD in Stockholm are still generating the most interest, with Slussen and Hagastaden seeing the highest demand in Atrium Ljungberg's portfolio.

Retail comprises approximately 20% of the company's total property value and represents a large diverse range. We have a good performance in our retail hubs and have a higher number of footfall now than before the pandemic. The turnover in the shopping center also shows greater numbers than before the pandemic, partly driven by prices. At the Swedish condominium market, we see a more stable pricing situation where prices for now has stopped falling since the beginning of the year. We are continuing to see a low number of sales launched for new building tenant on dwellings, far below the average value over the past years. The number of apartments sold are at low levels, and we see that our competitor are now doing price adjustments.

During the quarter, we have signed several new contracts, as I already mentioned. Net letting ended up at SEK 25 million in the quarter. First, I would like to comment that we have renegotiated our lease contract with our biggest tenant, Ericsson, in Gothenburg, 37,000 square meters. This means that Ericsson will remain at Lindholmen for at least the next 4 years. The biggest new leases were signed with MTR Nordic, where we have signed 2 contracts: first, 2,500 square meters for a new head office in Hagastaden; and 1,300 for the training operations for commuter trains, which will be moved to Nod district in Kista.

We have a well diversified contract portfolio, where our 10 largest customers account for 19% of the revenue. Of this 19%, 8% is money from state and municipalities. The average contract period was 4.6 years. Offices stand -- offices is our biggest source of revenue with 55%. Customer durables, our second largest part, represent 15% of the total. Let's take a closer look at our retail portfolio.

I know I showed you this image last quarter as well, but I think it's very important to understand the mix in our retail hubs. Somehow, people tend to think that retail is only fashion, but it's not the case. We have, during a long period of time, worked to diversify our retail hub and have a wide range of different players. Fashion stands for 14% of the turnover in our retail hubs. I think we have a very attractive retail portfolio. And as I mentioned in the beginning, both footfall and turnover are higher than before the pandemic.

And by that, I hand over to Ulrika to comment on our financial performance.

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

The second quarter follows the development of the first quarter, strong growth in income from property management and declined property values. Income from property management in the second quarter grows with 24% to SEK 332 million. And this is a result of hard and active work on a broad front in the company in combination with a still stable rental market.

We have good revenue development, good cost control and stable net interest income, the last as a result of both financial discipline and our interest position/strategy. In addition, last year's completed acquisitions and projects contribute, while project and contracting activities continue to show black numbers. Net financial items are stable and in line with Q1's outcome, and this is a reflection of the financial discipline I just mentioned and [ chosen industry ] strategy.

During the quarter, we took advantage of the market's favorable pricing versus our own position in certain segments and thereby reshuffled the portfolio [ a little ], which is visible in our interest maturity structure and maintained closing average interest rate. Our assessment is that yields would continue upwards in our portfolio about 10 basis points the second quarter, while cash flow is still strengthened. And this means a net write-down of SEK 588 million in the second quarter, equal to 1%. We have also completed our tenant owner project in Uppsala; and accounted a profit of 54%, equal to the proportion of occupied apartments, which has a positive impact on earnings this quarter by SEK 27 million. And the remaining profit settlement takes place as more [ apartments ] occupied or sold. After positive changes in the value of derivatives and tax, profit on the bottom line is minus SEK 148 million.

Our financial risk is expressed in a few key metrics, all of which are stable, an LTV of 41.8%; an ICR of 3.6, but 3.7 in isolated quarter; a net debt-to-EBITDA of 12.7 that gradually improved as the quarters pass by; and a liquidity buffet (sic) [ buffer ] of SEK 8 billion, which well covers credit maturities this year and the next year, why we can support the business based on their needs.

As usual, I intend to dive into some parts and start with the revenue side. In like-for-like, our rental income increases by 12.2% compared to 11.7% in Q1, which means that Q2 in isolation shows even better revenue growth than Q1. NOI growth is basically the same, 15%, but with a few points difference and slightly better in Q2 versus Q1. And just like in Q1, this is a result of hard work within the property management and leasing team.

All segments are showing growth. Notably, retail and resis have even better growth in Q1 versus -- in Q2 versus Q1. For resis, this is mainly due to the fact that in Q2 we received most of the decisions regarding rent increases, while in the retail segment we have made the sales settlement with a positive outcome.

So of the first half of the year's development of 12%, the indexes or the CPI accounts for about 7%; lower vacancies and renegotiations, for about 4%; and increased [ recharging ] of costs, for almost 1 to -- 2%.

Some of you may have noticed that the occupancy rate is decreasing somewhat. It is linked to offices in Stockholm and retail in Malmö, but the offices in Stockholm undoubtedly weighed heavily on the whole portfolio. And the reason is what we mentioned in Q1. [ Tengbom's ], which was a large lease, leaves premises in Slussen in April to move [ just in ] Hagastaden. We have had a positive net letting, so far, so this is more of a [ notch in the curve ] and not a reflection that we are getting worse. Looking ahead, based on what is now net subscribed, the occupancy rate will recover during the second half of this year, with emphasis on the last quarter, as several tenants moves in. Thus, the occupancy rate will be restored to Q1 levels at the end of the year.

And the business has continued to show good cost control. The increase of 6% is mainly linked to higher electricity costs. All in all, this means that our NOI is [ SEK 71 million ] higher in Q2 isolated, equal to 17%; and [ SEK 160 million ] for the first half year, equal to 21%.

As you know, we completed projects last year, which contributes, while emptying properties for upcoming developments has a negative impact on rental income. Life City and Bas Barkarby contributes with increased revenues, in the first half year, of roughly SEK 31 million, while the conversion of Söderhallarna and PV Palatset entails roughly SEK 18 million in lower revenues. And in addition, we have further SEK 5 million in reduced rental income in the rest of the project portfolio, Katarinahuset mitigates this to some extent. As you may have noticed, we have postponed the completion of Katarinahuset by a quarter, but that does not mean that we have no revenue. Gradual occupancy takes place. And during the first half of this year, we had revenues of roughly SEK 13 million, of which the main part are in the second quarter. And this is a pace that will continue this year and increase gradually every quarter next year. And thus, the project portfolio is a net contributor of rental growth, in the first half year, of [ SEK 21 million ].

The third leg is transaction. As you know, we acquired 2 properties in Q2 last year, which contribute with roughly SEK 78 million in improved rental income, while in January this year, we sold Skotten and thus lose SEK 24 million in revenue compared to Q2 last year. Just as in Q1, all parts of our value chain contributes: management, leasing, projects and transaction. And that means that rental income increases in total by SEK 193 million or 16%.

During the second quarter, the Swedish transaction market remained restrained with a transaction volume of roughly SEK 35 billion. It's almost 50% lower than the corresponding period last year. Our assessment is that there is continued upward pressure on yields, which in our portfolio means a yield increase of about 10 basis points in the second quarter. And by that, we have had a total yield increase this year of 20 basis points; and for -- compared to 1 year ago, an increase with 60 basis points. And the yield adjustment for this year entails a decline in value, so far, of SEK 1.8 billion, which is partly mitigated by continued strong cash flow as a result of the CPI and continued positive net letting. And this means that the total value decline in the first half of the year is almost 2%, of which 1% occurred in the second quarter.

During the second quarter, we have seen continued rise in short-term interest rates, while long-term interest rates that fell in the first quarter now have turned back upwards. And for example, a 10-year interest rate closed at around 3% in the beginning of the Q2. A week ago, the [ Swedish banks ] announced their increase by 25 basis points to [ 375 ] and signaled further hikes, where the interest rate peak is expected to breach in the first quarter of next year and then fall away somewhat. Even if cuts are priced in, in 2024, STIBOR will remain at high levels.

The market and forecasters have, as you can see, an interest rate of 3% to 3.5% in the early 2025. We have not seen any significant price increases in banks since we stood here last in Q1. We have extended 2 existing credits and have -- thus have the opportunity to test this issue. We experience a great willingness to lend to us and we have very good dialogues with our [ relation ] banks. The CP market is still a bit volatile. And since Q1, we have reduced the volume slightly but with maintained pricing about 70 basis points over STIBOR for 3 months.

The bond market is showing some activity, and we are getting proposals. We had a maturity of SEK 250 million in Q2 that fall due and we replaced that with a new bond of SEK 300 million, the latter with a maturity of 2.5 years [ to 225 ] basis points. It is expensive. Of course, unsecured financing should be slightly more expensive than secured but not twice as expensive, but this is a way to [ send things ] to the market that we want to be present. And if no new black swan comes flying by, banks and the capital markets should meet each other; and it can be done in different ways. Either both parties move towards each other, or one of the actors; and that remains to be seen. [ So from ] market to us.

So what else have we done in the second quarter? We have continued to work on both capital supply, as I just mentioned, and interest rate risk management. We have a good liquidity [ buffet ] of SEK 8 billion, which will move -- more than well cover future maturities into 2025 while meeting the needs of the business. We are thus not stressed and have the opportunity to navigate through the credit crunch that we're seeing in the market. We have extended 2 existing bank facilities for another year. Thus, we have handled all bank loans maturing in 2024 and now only have bond maturities left to handle. And as I said earlier, we feel great support from our relationship banks and a clear message that they want to grow with us.

In terms of our fixed income position, the market has remained volatile but has also given us opportunities to make some changes in our portfolio, as evidenced by the interest maturity structure. And the purpose is to use pricing in the market versus our portfolio and thus [ rack in ] the new higher interest rates and not stress our key figures to too great an extent. And this means that we have maintained an average interest rate even though STIBOR has moved during this period.

Our fixed income and capital ratios have decreased as time has passed, and it is worth mentioning that 42% of the interest rate portfolio matures beyond 2027. Our credit ratios improved somewhat further in the second quarter. The interest coverage rate increases to 3.6 from 3.5, while the net debt-to-EBITDA is lowered from 13 to 12.7 and a quarterly pace of 12. And this is an expression of what I started with: a business that delivers good earnings with good cost control while maintaining financial discipline and actively working with our interest rate risk management.

I am deeply impressed by the fact that the business so dedicatedly adopts new rules and works hard with both revenues and costs. However, this does not mean that we can sit back or stand still. We need to continue on the established line to adapt to the new rules of the game that the market gives us and everyone else.

But before we take a summer vacation: Annica, we have exciting thoughts about our projects that we launched this quarter.

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

So let's update you on our product portfolio. At the end of Q2, we had ongoing constructions of SEK 7.2 billion, of which SEK 4.6 billion remain to be invested. Of ongoing projects, SEK 6.4 billion is invested in properties that are developed to own. We have an increase of investments in our projects due to price adjustments in constructions. We have mitigated some of that in increased rents in new lettings. And by that, we have an estimated project profit of approximately 30%, corresponding to SEK 2 billion, of which SEK 700 million has already been reported. Furthermore, we have ongoing condominium projects production of SEK 800 million with an assessed market value of SEK 1 billion. The project profit will be realized as the projects are completed, yes.

On this image, you see our 10 ongoing projects and when they will be completed. Of the project that will be completed in '23 and '24, we have pre-let 66%.

And finally, a few words about the project portfolio going forward. We will develop 4 areas in Stockholm and where there will be a natural growth of people. The potential investment is about SEK 40 billion. And let's focus on Sickla this quarter. In a groundbreaking move, we have initiated Stockholm Wood City, the largest, the world's largest, urban wooden construction project. This new area in Sickla will offer a vibrant urban environment with a mix of workplaces, housing, restaurants and shops; and will be constructed using timber frames. Stockholm Wood City heralds a new [ era ] in sustainable architecture and urban development and will be an international showcase for sustainable construction.

Stockholm Wood City reflects the vision we have for the future. There is also a high level of demand among our tenants for innovative, sustainable solution, which we can meet through this project. The project comprises over 250,000 square meters, making it the largest urban timber frame construction project currently known in the world. This area will have 7,000 new office jobs and 2,000 apartments in Sickla, in Nacka municipality. The property industry plays a crucial role in the green transition, and buildings account for as much as 40% of global CO2 emissions. Atrium Ljungberg has set high sustainability goals, which includes us halving the climate impact of our construction projects by 2025 and being climate neutral by 2030. As these goals are so ambitious, we need to take action. We hope Stockholm Wood City will inspire other companies around the world.

So we'll now show a film about this and what we will think it will look like in the future. And after that, we open up for questions.

[Presentation]

[Mattias Vahlne]

Thank you so much, Annica and Ulrika. And we will now be starting off the Q&A.

[Mattias Vahlne]

I will start off actually asking wood city, the largest project of its kind and very ambitious. How has the publicity and the reactions been out there?

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

They've been quite enormous actually. We had so much interest not only in Sweden but all over the world, with interview in The Economist and article in CNN. And well, it's been a fantastic announcement, I must say.

[Mattias Vahlne]

What is their most common question regarding the project?

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

I would say, "Why?" and in this huge amount with 250,000 square meters. And for us, it's about the sustainability part. The aim for us is to be climate neutral in 2030, and then we have to really act and do something. And we want to do this also to inspire other companies around the world and to actually be more sustainable going forward because it's such an important issue.

[Mattias Vahlne]

And I also want to address viewers. [Operator Instructions] So if we look into the finance: What is your challenges and focus, if you make an outlook for the rest of the year?

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

The challenge just is the same for us, as all other. It's new rules out there regarding the costs of funding and the access to funding, but companies have -- has, you can say, prepared in different ways. So we started roughly 1 year ago and worked with all the things we can have an impact on, our cost focus in the operation; liquidity [ buffer ] in place; an interest rate exposure that helps us through this; and a very good, we can say, development of the pipeline in the projects. So all this together means that we can deliver these good earnings, and the plan is to continue to do that.

[Mattias Vahlne]

And now we have equity analyst Ryan Bouimad from Clearance Capital -- yes. All right, we are waiting from -- for Ryan for some more time, so if we move on: You are also working on being self-sufficient when it comes to electricity, using solar electricity. Could you tell us a bit more about this?

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

Yes. The plan is to be a self-producer within the Sickla area, so we will have solar panels and then battery efficiency in the area and also some other techniques that make this very sustainable as well. And we don't have all the answers going forward how we will turn out being climate neutral, but we have to be innovative by the way and find new solutions. That's -- and do the best we can.

[Mattias Vahlne]

You were talking a lot about your physical appearance throughout Stockholm, for instance, when it comes to commuting possibilities and so on. Can you tell us a bit more why you're focusing so much about, regarding the subway, et cetera?

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

The subway. Well, if you look at the rental levels going forward and if you compare one area with a subway and if you don't have a subway, it's actually a difference of 30%. So of course, it's the rental levels we are after. And if you see that the city is moving in that direction, we will have a good uplift the coming years in that sense. So it's all about money.

[Mattias Vahlne]

We got another interesting question in the Swedish broadcast. That was the fourth factor when it comes to -- you have offices, homes, but he also mentioned working out of home -- from your home. What was your answer to that?

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

Well, when I talk to management teams, well, in Sweden and Stockholm, everyone -- it's talking about how important it is to have the employees coming to work. And I think Stockholm in that sense is quite different if you compare it to London or New York because the commute time is quite small. So it's not a big issue to actually bringing the personnel into the office, but we see the trends very clear, that you want to establish your office in a surrounding that is very nice and attractive. Not only the small square meters, it's all about what's outside your office as well when it comes to services and restaurants and all that. And so I think in that sense we have really a good strategy within Atrium Ljungberg to actually develop really attractive areas, yes.

[Mattias Vahlne]

Yes. And thank you so much. That was all my questions for today. And thank you for watching, and meet you again later.