Atrium Ljungberg AB

STO:ATRLJ B

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q1

[Operator]

Welcome to today's quarterly presentation by property company, Atrium Ljungberg, presenting the results for the first quarter in 2023. [Operator Instructions]. So with no further ado, let me present to you today's speakers, CEO, Annica Anas; and the CFO, Ulrika Danielsson. Please, go ahead.

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

Thank you very much. The hedging for this report is healthy profit from property management despite these challenging times. I would like to start to summarize and highlight a few things from this report. Our property portfolio looks very similar to last quarter with 80% of the value in Stockholm. The biggest segment, office stands for 63% of the total value. Our net letting amounted to SEK 11 million, including termination from our side due to upcoming projects. So the figure was SEK 8 million. Our profit from property management increased by 16%, and the like-for-like figure in operating net was an increase by 15%. We have today ongoing projects with an investment of SEK 7 billion, where SEK 4.7 billion remains to be invested. Of the projects being completed in 2023 and 2024, the pre-letting is 65%. As I mentioned in the beginning, we have a big focus in Stockholm, both in our existing properties and in our upcoming investments. The major areas is Hagastaden, Slussen, Slakthusområdet and Sickla. All areas where we have a subway in Stockholm or where there will be a subway station in the coming years. I think we have a unique position in our locations in Stockholm. Every 2 years, Fastighetssverige, a magazine for the property industry carries out a survey to characterize the best future location in office segment in Stockholm. Slakthusområdet came out on the top this year and Slussen in third place. And it was 92 experts that would ask and look into the 10 years future time and conclude where the location would be the greatest rental potential in the future linked to the planned extension of the underground network. And so in that sense, we have a really good position going forward. In the first quarter, we have signed agreements corresponding to SEK 56 million in annual rents, proving that demand remains high for office space in great locations. However, we have also noted that companies are focused heavily on their costs. We have received termination for customers, corresponding to an annual rent of approximately SEK 45 million. There is a risk that the trend will move towards smaller office space and greater flexibility in these contracts. The locations in greater CBD in Stockholm are still generating the most interest, which Slussen and Hagastaden seeing the highest demand in Atrium Ljungberg's portfolio. In the middle of March, we announced that Atrium Ljungberg had acquired 50% of the shares in A house for approximately SEK 20 million. We also intend to invest approximately SEK 50 million in upcoming years for further expansion. Since the start of 2016, A house has been a hub for many innovative companies and is currently planning to expand to a number of locations in Atrium Ljungberg's portfolio in Stockholm. A house has definitely shown that they can build a strong and profitable company and attract incredible interesting tenants. This partnership broadens Atrium Ljungberg's offer to existing customers and exciting customer for the future and enable us to target new sectors and contexts. Retail comprises approximately 20% of the company's total property portfolio and represent a large diverse range where more than 40% of the sales at the retail hubs are for staple goods, such as food, pharmacy products and alcohol. As we know, these segments fare well in both good and bad times. But the majority is seeing an increase in sales in the few months -- in the first few months in the year compared to the same period last year. This increase is most probably due to a combination of price adjustments and volumes. We're seeing a return to pre-pandemic levels with more visitors coming to our hubs than in 2022. Other segments that we have seen an increased turnover are opticians and travel agencies. Although gyms and cinemas had a favorable start to the year, it's too early to say whether this is a trend change or just a temporary increase. Sales in clothing and under customer durables were similar to the previous year, except for electronics which lost sale compared to the sales peak in the previous year. I will come back to retail mix in a few minutes. And the Swedish condominium market saw a small positive start to the year, in both February and March, prices for condominiums increased by first 1 and then 2%. The annual price development is currently minus 11%. We are continuing to see low numbers of sales launched for new built tenant-owned dwellings, far below the average value over the past 6 years. So far this year, we have signed 5 binding contracts with new customers, and we have no plans to lower the prices in the apartments that we have currently on sale. It is our assessment that interest in our location and condominiums will remain strong. In fact, it will increase the closer we get to the completion and occupancy. The sales rate in our project in Upsala, where completion is in Q2 and Q3 of this year is 57%. The first quarter, we have signed several new contracts, as I already mentioned, net letting ended up at SEK 8 million. Here, you can see the 3 biggest ones. First is an agreement in Hagastaden for more than 1,300 square meters to the property developer loader, which is moving in, in Swedish office in our Mineralvattenfabriken property. Other companies that have chosen to move their headquarters to Hagastaden include the interior design company, Granit, Kitchen Time and Zmarta Group. In Sickla, we signed an agreement with Nacka Municipality to extend the lease contract for its existing upper secondary school and to extend the school premises. This new lease contracted comprises a total of more than 10,000 square meters, of which 2,100 square meters new construction, which includes Young Business Creatives whose premises will be expanded. This investment encompass Sickla is an important step to continue developing Sickla as a new district. And with a good mix of workplace, education, residentials, culture and retake. Katarinahuset in Slussen is being filled with more creative mix tenants. In the final week of the quarter, it was confirmed that a major international media group will move into -- will move their Swedish headquarter to the property, and the agreement comprises approximately 1,900 square meters. We have a well-diversified contract portfolio where our 10 largest customers accounts for 20% of the revenue; of this 20%, 8% revenue is from state and municipalities. Index for 2022 will increase our revenue 2023, with about SEK 165 million. The average contract period was 4.6 years. Offices is our biggest source of revenue with 55%. Customer durables, our second largest part of the revenue represents 16% of our total revenue. And let's take a little closer look at our retail portfolio. I know I showed you this image last quarter as well, but I think it's very important to understand the mix in our retail hubs. Somehow people tend to think that retail is only fashion, but it's not that -- like that in our case. We have under a long period of time worked to diversify our retail hubs to have a wide range of different players, health care, for example, has a much bigger part today than just a few years back. Fashion stands for 11% of the turnover in our retail hubs, 11%. I think we have a very attractive retail portfolio and the footfall in our 3 retail hub sites is very good. Looking at the turnover in our shopping areas, we have a good performance in comparison to the overall market -- retail market in Sweden. And as I said before, the Christmas shopping was all-time high. And as I commented in the beginning, we are seeing a return to pre-pandemic levels. which are more visitors coming to our hubs than in 2022. And once again, groceries, Systembolaget, a liquor store in Sweden and pharmacies goods are the basic in our lives and stands for more than 40% of the turnover in our retail hubs. And by that, I hand over to Ulrika who will comment on our financial performance this quarter.

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

The first quarter, our P&L presents both good growth and negative result. Income from property management increased by 16% to SEK 326, the best ever in the company's history. But the bottom line result was negative as a result of declines in the value of both properties as well as derivatives. Our strong income from property management is an expression of the fact that the underlying business is doing well, which we can see from the development in our NOI. Growth in like-for-like is 15%. We have had a good traction from the index. But that doesn't explain everything, and I will come back to that while total growth is 25%. Projects and contracted performances are better, mainly due to 2 factors: Higher sales, combined with more efficient resource utilization mean better gross margin. The gross margin has improved for the group despite the fact that we have moved roughly SEK 3 million from central administration to the live cost projects and contracting as we believe they better belong there. Furthermore, the central administration has improved by SEK 5 million of which the move of SEK 3 million I just mentioned is one explanation. Regarding the administration for 2023 as a whole, we are back heavy, which means that the rolling 12 months in this report is a better guide than Q1 in installation. Our assessment is that yields will continue upwards in our portfolio about 10 basis points this quarter while cash flow has strengthened. This means a net write-down of roughly SEK 401 million equal to roughly minus 1%. After negative changes in the value of derivatives and goodwill, the latter linked to the sale of Scotland in January this year and tax profit on bottom line is minus SEK 292 million. And that means that our NAV, which at the end of the period amounted to SEK 267 per share has decreased roughly SEK 1 per share or 0.5%. Our financial risk means that at the end of. the period, we have an LTV of 42% and ICR of 3.5% and a net debt to EBITDA of 13%, which is much better than last year's 15.6%. And finally, a liquidity buffet of roughly SEK 9 billion, which well covers credit maturities this year and next. I thought I would dive deep into some parts and start with the revenue side as it has been the big driver of our growth this quarter. In like-for-like, our rental income increases by roughly 12%, which in addition to the index is a result of hard work within property management as well as leasing. All segments showed growth, although resis is understandably lower than the commercial segment. And on the other hand, resis is a very small part of our portfolio. Of course, we can thank the CPI it for this development, but it explains over 6.5% of the 12%. Last year's good net leasing and renegotiations mean that our revenue increases by roughly 3% compared to Q1 last year, while we charge increased cost to customers and thus generated a further rental income increase of 2%. Another contributor is our completed projects, mainly Life City and Bas Barkarby, which increased our revenues by roughly SEK 25 million while we have emptied Söderhallarna and Blästern for ongoing projects, which means fixed inlet revenue. Thus, the project portfolio is a net contributor to rental growth in the first quarter of SEK 19 million. The third leg is transaction. As you know, we acquired two properties in Q2 last year, which contributed with roughly SEK 50 million in improved rental income. While in January this year results Skotten and [indiscernible] SEK 9 million in revenue compared to Q1 last year. So all in all, parts of our value chain, property management, leasing, projects and transactions contributed to increased rental income by total SEK 112 million or 19%. The management has continued to have good cost control. The increase of 5% is in like-for-like. It is roughly -- it's basically only linked to electricity. And all in all, this means that our NOI increased with SEK 98 million, equal to 25% compared to Q1 last year. The transaction volume in the first quarter was SEK 20 billion and is significantly lower compared to last year and the last 5 years. Of the SEK 20 billion, we accounted for 10% in a single deal when we sold Skotten. Our assessment is that there is continued upward pressure on yields which in our portfolio means, as I said earlier, a yield increase of 10 basis points. This entails an impairment of roughly SEK 729 million. We raised deal for housing and retail more than offices last year when we were brought down housing by 10% on an annual basis. And retail went roughly [indiscernible] despite the strong cash flow, which is why we, [indiscernible] mainly adjust offices. But the yield is not the only thing in valuation. We also have time but above all cash flow. The latter is mainly linked to continued positive net lifting, but also that will change the index from 4% to 5%for 2024, as inflation does not seem to be giving away resulting in a revaluation of SEK 380 million. However, together with a smaller project profit, this entails a total decrease in value of SEK 400 million or roughly 1%. Central banks around the world have continued to raise interest rates as inflation has not receded and further hikes are pristine by the market and communicate to a large extent also by the central banks. Although the turbulence in the international banking sector have, to some extent, soften the communication. As can be seen from the graph, it should get worse before it gets better. During the first quarter, DBR has increased from 2.7% to 3.4% and further increases our pricing before it is too worse. However, long-term industries have moved in the other direction and decreased by 26 basis points during the quarter, although high equitations took place during this period. We have not seen any further price increases in banks since we stood here last in connection with the Q4. We experienced a great willingness to lend to us, and we have very good dialogues. When it comes to the Nordic banking system, we do not feel any spillover from the international banking turbulence. We have increased the CP volume from Q4 roughly on the same prices as then. And the bond market is not so active, but up until before the International Banking turbulence, we experienced a certain awakening. However, we have chosen to wait. Secured financing is cheaper than unsecured and that is quite natural and should probably be so. However, are secured should not be twice as expensive. And here, we need to meet somewhere along the way. So from market to us. At the beginning of April, we had our rating confirmed but with a negative outlook. This should be seen in the light of the fact that growth in financing costs and Moody's belief of falling property values of 10% or challenging our credit figures in terms of ICR and LTV. In addition, there is some concern that the turbulence in the international banking sector may increase, which in turn would make bank refinancing more difficult. Our credit KPIs gives us good conditions to deliver in a rather turbulent environment. We are pleased to see that the net debt to EBITDA is moving in the right direction from 15.6% at year-end, up to 13% now, largely thanks to better earnings and lower debt volume. Our capital and fixed interests are around 4 years, but even more important is that at the time of writing, we have an exposure to additional STIBOR movements of only 13%. And after selling a property and adding new credit facilities, our liquidity buffer is as much as SEK 9 billion at the end of the quarter, which more than covers future maturities and can support the business in their needs for capital and is needed right.

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

Thank you, Ulrika. So let's update you on our project portfolio. At the end of Q1, we had ongoing construction of SEK 7.1 billion, of which SEK 4.8 billion remain to be invested. Of ongoing projects, SEK 6.3 billion is investing in properties that are developed to all with an estimated project profit of approximately 37%, corresponding to SEK 2.3 billion, of which SEK 700 million has already been reported. Furthermore, we have ongoing condominium production of SEK 800 million, which assessed market value of SEK 1 billion. The project profit will be realized as the projects are completed. On this image, you can see our 10 ongoing projects and when they will be completed. Of the projects that will be completed in 2023 and 2024. We have pre-let 65%. We have 1 new decided project in this quarter, the extension of Campus Sickla where we have renegotiated the lease of 10 years and which 2,100 square meters is an extension. I would also like to comment on the fact that we now have a finalized building permit for the extension on Katarinahuset. It has been a long process, but finally, the Land and Environmental Court of Appeal announced that they would not grant any more leads to it. I am extremely excited to announce the plans for Sickla Trä Stad that means Sickla Wooden Town. We have been working with Nacka Municipality to produce a detailed development plan for Central Sickla, with a total of 6 blocks comprising more than 90,000 square meters GFA on land, which is mostly being used for parking at the moment. [indiscernible] has now made a historic and strategic decision to build these 6 blocks out of wood based on the company's extremely ambitious climate goals, combined with customer demand for attractive and unique urban environments. The detailed development plan will be sent out for examination in the third quarter of 2023. And lastly, a reminder in the longer perspective, the total pipeline to invest is a total of SEK 40 billion, and most of it will be invested in Stockholm. SEK 30 billion or over 600,000 square meters will be invested in Sickla, Slakthusområdet, Hagastaden and Slussen. I really think that we have an impressive product portfolio. And with that, we open up for questions.

[Operator]

Thank you so much for that presentation, Ulrika and Annica. Let's start off the Q&A session with this question. Your income from property management came in higher than market expectations. What was your forecast?

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

It was according to the business plan that we have done in the group for 2023. So we are not surprised. It's according to our plan.

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

And hard work.

[Operator]

A lot of hard work, yes. Okay. Another question. One year ago, you were doing this presentation for Q1, you had SEK 8 billion in cash. Now it's SEK 9 billion as a buffer. What is your view on that amount going forward?

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

I think it's a good amount. It's a high number, but it's good to have in this troubling times. We have bonds and CPs falling due in the maturity structure. This year of SEK 2.6 billion, so which will well cover debt, at the same time as the business and operations need more funding. If it will be 9 or 10 or 8 to 7 in the end of this year, I really don't know, but it's good to have in these times.

[Operator]

Thank you. Now we have a -- from Kepler Cheuvreaux, Jan Ihrfelt, Equity Analyst.

[Jan Ihrfelt, analyst]

Okay. I will start with if we look at the financial net, whether any extraordinary items in it, I don't mean the cost you have put on the balance sheet, but any other one-offs in the financial net.

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

It was not.

[Jan Ihrfelt, analyst]

Okay. And also, you are taking down your value -- property values by 0.7%. And there were internal audit of that? Have you have discussions with the operators during this process? Or are you going to leave that for another quarter?

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

No, we always have discussed this with several external valuers each quarter, in trying to understand how they look at the market for different segments, and we have had that this time also, and that is important input to our own valuations.

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

And one example is also the index that was in the quarter -- last quarter was 4% for going forward, and now it's increased to 5%.

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

Yes. And that is according to what external value will do since the inflation is not going downwards yet.

[Jan Ihrfelt, analyst]

Yes. I heard of that earlier. Final question then. Katarinahuset, your building right to extend that finally came through. Could you just give us a picture of the size of -- the floor space size and when you will be able to start that project?

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

Actually, we started that project as we started the refurbishment of Katarinahuset. That's why it's been so important to have this building permit in place. So it's almost completed now. And we are doing the letting work now since the building right is in place. So it's not that many square meters, but you still have it in the numbers in the quarterly reports. So it will not be an add-on because that's something that we have thought that we would get the permits.

[Operator]

Another question, due to the financial situation, how have your project pipeline changed in the long term?

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

In the long term, not at all, I would say, it's more in the maybe shorter perspective. We talked in the beginning of February last year that we would invest SEK 30 billion by the end of 2030. I made that timeline extended somewhat. But I mean, in the long run, we will do the SEK 40 billion investment that we have planned to do. And as we speak, I think it's more the co-op started to build the cost would be more difficult depending on how we're doing the selling process in the products that we are running right now.

[Operator]

Okay. That was all the questions that we had for you today. Thank you so much, Annica and Ulrika for your time.

[Annica Ånäs, executive]

Thank you.

[Ulrika Danielsson, executive]

Thank you very much.