AQ Group AB

STO:AQ

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q2

[James Ahrgren, executive]

Okay. It's 9:00. Time for me to present our numbers for quarter 2 of 2023. I welcome you all. So let the show begin. So first of all, why you should invest in AQ Group?

Our earnings per share has grown on average 17% over the past 10 years. We have made profit every quarter since the foundation in 1994. We have exposure to a very nice niche industrial market segment with underlying growth, primarily electrification at the moment. We have a long history of acquisitions with 2 to 4 factories per year, and we have a very strong balance sheet.

Now let's go on to the report. We showed extremely strong growth in the quarter compared to the same quarter last year and with increased profitability. Our net sales increased by 36% to more than SEK 2 billion. It is much higher than our goal. Our operating profit increased with 90%, which is amazing. Profit after financial items increased with 80% to SEK 195 million. It is the best quarter we have ever had.

And our profit margin before tax EBT was 8.3%. And profit after tax increased by 98% to SEK 172 million, and cash flow from operating activities was SEK 177 million in the quarter. And earnings per share before dilution increased with 97% to SEK 9.3. Extremely good development, fantastic quarter, I would say.

Let's continue to first 6 months.

So net sales increased with 37% to almost SEK 4.6 billion. Our operating profit increased with 81% to SEK 398 million. Our profit after financial items increased with 69% to SEK 380 million. And our profit margin before tax EBT was 8.3%.

I'd also like to mention our cash flow, which was really good according to our expectation at SEK 403 million, which is matching our EBIT for the first 6 months. And our earnings per share before dilution increased with 84%. We don't really have any major dilution. So it is the profit per share. And our equity ratio was much, much higher than our goal at 58%.

So let's dig a little bit deeper in the numbers. Earnings per share growth, we continued this AQ rocket towards the sky and rolling 12 months, we are now at SEK 30 per share.

And our growth, if we look at 2023 quarter 2 rolling 3 -- rolling 12 months compared to and 10 years back, then it's 19% on average earnings per share growth and rolling 12 2023, quarter 2 earnings per share is 36% versus 2022 full year. So if we take these 2 new quarters into consideration, it is a very good development, I must say.

Net sales is increasing, and we have a growth of 36% versus the same quarter last year and 8% of that is currency. So the growth -- the organic growth is a bit lower, but still very, very strong. We still see capacity and productivity constraints. Therefore, our on-time delivery is not the way we want. We'll get back to that.

I'd like to comment that the ramp-up of the battery systems factory in Bulgaria and our wiring systems for truck project in Lithuania is done. So we are delivering now on full speed in both those factories. And the increases in the quarter compared to the same quarter last year is mainly in the defense industry, in commercial vehicles and electrification and railway where the biggest part of that is electrification really.

So we think that is a good trend with good market segments. But in general, all our markets are going very, very strongly. So that is fun to see. And we're winning new business that is why we have been winning new business last year and that is showing now in the turnover this year. So we're really delivering what we have said we're going to deliver. So according to plan, really.

So the organic growth is 28%, which is very strong. So we continue this very strong trend. Of course, we need to now win more new projects so that we will continue this growth also next year, and our target is above 10%. I believe that we will be able to beat that for sure next year. And we are working very hard to now plant the new potatoes so that we can harvest them next year, just like we have done this year.

I really believe in our entrepreneurial business and model with decentralized leadership and leaders who grow their business locally with their customers. So it's -- this is really a team effort. We have fantastic people out in the organization that are very close to the customers, winning new projects. It is no big market change or something like that or global blah, blah, blah, macroeconomic thing. This is our team winning new business from demanding industrial customers. So we're very confident in our ability to grow the business organically, which is good.

If we look at the acquired growth, then we are way below our target. It -- I must say that we are mainly now looking for factories that are not full, which is quite hard because it seems most factories are quite full. And so therefore, we have the last years focused on increasing our own capabilities instead of buying other companies and factories. But we are not standing still, even though the numbers show that, but we are still working hard to find good candidates in new geographical markets and that can expand our footprint and increase our production capacity.

EBT margin is okay. We are above our target of 8%, which is good. We have a high focus on internal productivity in our growth factories. When you grow, it's hard. It takes a lot of work to really get the profitability out when you grow with new products and new customers. Also our low-profit subsidiaries, they make more profit than last year. So that is a big help to improve the profitability from the same quarter last year.

In the quarter, we have also closed a small production site in fall shopping with 24 employees that were producing machines for food and beverage industry. Mainly, we have moved those customers to other production sites, so other production sites in Sweden and Bulgaria. And the closure is done, and there will be no additional costs for that.

And then we are continuing also our price optimization work. So we are still working with prices with customers, finding products that we are selling are not as profitable as we want, working together with our customers to ensure that either we lower the cost for producing them by doing design changes or other activities moving like we did now in fall shopping, moving the production to another site to improve our margins, but also help our customers to improve their cost base.

So this is an ongoing work, and it will be a hard push on this in quarter 3 and quarter 4 as well. And we still see a lot of opportunities to improve in Asia and in a couple of our factories in Americas and in several of our European factories as well. That is why we are doing these activities.

The inventory value and turnover has been a big focus for us during the last 2 years, I must say. As you can see in the red bars, the inventory has gone up quite a lot, but also our turnover is going up. So we're seeing now that, despite our big growth, our inventory is not growing, it is actually decreasing. This means that our inventory turnover is now at 2.7. And I believe we will reach 3 by the end of this year. And hopefully, we can reach even above that. So at the moment, our inventory turnover targets is 3.5, but I believe we can get even higher than that. And this is calculated on a 12-month rolling backwards. So it takes some time, but I believe we are on the right way. And we have a good project team that is working very hard with our problem companies that have a little bit lower inventory turnover. But we are getting where we want to be.

So it's a good happy mouth there on the black curve. This gives then a very good net cash from operating activities since we are not increasing our inventory, we have good profitability, then we are able to turn the profit into cash. And that helps us to invest in new production facilities, new machines, but also to decrease our net debt and give more room for possible acquisitions as well.

So we're very happy with the development. And of course, it costs money now. And you can see the difference now this year between our EBIT and our EBT. So compared to same quarter last year. So we are happy that we are decreasing our net debt as well. So it's a very good work there by our companies to bring the cash in. So good profit, good cash flow, good turnover, good growth.

So what are we doing then to invest in increased capacity? We have the extension of our wiring systems factory in Lodz, Poland. We are increasing with 5,000 square meters. This is a rented facility. So it is an extension of a rented facility that we will rent some more space. We believe that we will be able to increase our capacity quite a lot, especially on the day shifts when it's easier to recruit people. This is to facilitate our growth in this factory where we deliver wire harnesses for forklifts, agriculture equipment, drivetrains for boats and also railway harnesses. It is a good move for us. We need more capacity in Europe for Wiring Systems.

Then we have invested in the new punching capacity in Sweden, Finland, Estonia, actually, Bulgaria as well. So we are buying low energy consumption and high efficiency punching machines. You can see one on the picture there on the bottom left. And the thing is that when we replace an old punching machine with a new one, we can increase the capacity in that machine by 30%. So same number of -- also actually fewer number of operators because you can see there's a tower there, also white tower, where all the metals are stacked. So this machine -- this type of machine, we can run 24/7 without operator. It also enabled us to send the drawings directly into the machine. So in some cases, even our customers can send drawings directly into our equipment.

So we are saving costs. We are increasing output in the same square meter and with fewer people, actually. So it's really good investment. And why are we doing these investments is because our customers are growing within electrification, especially motor drive cabinets in the railway industry and in machinery equipment.

Then we have taken a decision during the quarter to invest in new injection molding machines in Sweden because we have won a number of new projects to automotive customers that we have been working with for a long time. So we are very happy that we are able to invest in our factory in Anderstorp, in Sweden. We haven't done it for a while. So it is nice with 4 new machines, one really big one as well. So it is fun when we can invest in our facilities. And of course, it is the cash flow that enables these investments.

The main reason why we are doing this is, as you can see, our on-time delivery is still on a very, very low level. It is -- one reason is that we have extremely high pressure on -- from our customers to deliver out more, but it is not all of the reasons. We still lack some people, and we lack machines and we lake production space. So we are adding constantly new machines, more people, more production space.

Then again, we -- I strongly believe that in quarter 3, this number will improve. But as I said, it is a high demand in all our market segments, and it will continue, I believe, for the next 2 quarters and what we see now also in 2024. So it is fun, fun with growth, but it is challenging to get all the products out and especially these new projects are not too easy to deliver out.

And then we have, of course, a few factories that -- where we have extra focus here that are having the biggest problems mainly, yes, we have a factory in Finland delivering marine transformers, which are doubling the sales. We have -- yes, our defense industry customers are doubling the spend with us. So there, we really need to add more people, machines and capacity, and it is very challenging, but it's fun. This is what we like to do.

Maybe the most fun slides, 4 last slides, then we go into -- or 3 last slides, we go into Q&A. So we have some projects for future growth. I will go into some old ones and some new ones.

So on the picture on the right, you can see our factory in Bulgaria, where we are delivering this Battery Energy Storage Systems and control cabinets for the same. It is now, as you can see on the picture, fully operational. And we now have a capacity to deliver 1,000 battery modules. And what we see is for quarter 1, quarter 2 next year, it will be in those -- in that range that we will deliver. So we have orders to match this as well. So it is very nice.

And in quarter 1 and quarter 2 this year, we are almost on this pace. So it is really, really nice that we have now managed to fill this factory and it gives us also possibilities to grow with other customers.

Then we go to the next one, which is -- we have won several projects for a major global player in HVDC power transmission, where we do all the control cabinets for them. And it is a big growth potential for us, where we produce the sheet metal cabinet. We put all the material inside and test it and deliver it to our customer. And our customer has won several substantially big projects globally and it is very good for us.

And I think most of these we are producing in Bulgaria as well. So this move with the [ panic ] factory also helps free up space for these kind of projects. So we're very happy with the development there. We will continue to grow our Bulgarian operations and it's really cool projects as well. These big wind farms need to transport power and also from countries that are like islands that they need power cables to connect to the Mainland and so on. It's really cool project, I can say.

Railway is starting to come back, which is fun. And in the quarter, we have won several new projects. We have won a lot of inductive components for Chennai Metro and train -- railway project called Train 18 for Alstom. We have won an extension of New York City Metro, where we deliver inductive components, and it is a substantial order for our American operations. And very fun is that we have won our first order from Stadler Rail in Switzerland during quarter 2. And this is a customer we are trying to approach for more than 10 years. And now finally, we are getting into the -- together with our colleagues in Germany and Hungary, they have been able to do the breakthrough there. So we are very happy with that order.

I also heard yesterday, we got an extension of C30 project, which is the Metro of Stockholm, where we deliver all the electrical cabinets. So that is also fun.

And we have got an extension for our project in Hanbury where we deliver big electrical cabinets that are sitting on top of the train with a very complex mechanical structure. So we are happy with the development in our railway operation factories. And it is, as you can see here, involving U.S., India, Hungary, Bulgaria, so many of our sites are delivering and Sweden as well when we talk about C30. That is fun.

And as I mentioned also last time, so our wiring systems business and sheet metal fabrication business and design engineering part is growing together with our Defense segment. So it is really -- we are doubling the output and orders are continually coming in, but the peak for these projects that our customer has won is in 2024. And as you can see, we now have gone from 5 engineers working with these customers to 40 engineers designing different parts that we hopefully then can also produce in our factories. So it is a very good development that we can see.

So that was everything I had for today. So very -- I would say, a fantastic report, and I'm very happy with my team who has delivered really in the quarter. It's very easy to be CEO when you have the best team in the world.

So there, we go to Q&A. So please raise your hand and then we can let you in, if you have any questions. So Karl has a question. So please, unmute Karl.

[Unknown Analyst]

Hello. Can you hear me?

[James Ahrgren, executive]

Yes, we can.

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. Great. So, strong report. Congrats on that. Just some questions. I didn't really hear you there, but did you say that, do you expect the business to grow 15% for next year? Or what did you say?

[James Ahrgren, executive]

I mean that is the plan. I mean, we have always a target to grow 15% every year. So absolutely, we are expecting to continue our growth path.

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. And I'm just wondering here, we see a lot of reports here coming in today, which is a bit maybe weaker related to the cyclical exposure. I'm just wondering if you're seeing any, let's say, in your cyclical industries, are you seeing any slowdown of demand? Or what are your customers telling you in terms of like forward demand?

[James Ahrgren, executive]

No, we don't see any -- our forecast look the same. I mean it looks like it will continue to be strong for the next 12 months. That is what we see and then we are, of course, trying to win new business as well on top of that, and that will be the growth there.

[Unknown Analyst]

And you seem to have won some good business in this quarter as well, I guess?

[James Ahrgren, executive]

Yes.

[Unknown Analyst]

So -- and then a question on the margin side. I mean, quite similar margin to Q1 despite less working days and I guess more overtime work, which means higher cost. So I was wondering, is it lower freight and raw material prices that is driving somewhat of this margin improvement or year-over-year? Or what can you say regarding in regards to the margin?

[James Ahrgren, executive]

Yes, you can say that we have increased the prices and reduced the cost with about 2% compared to last year. So that is -- I mean that is really what we are seeing. So absolutely, we see some lower costs, but -- and also some of our price increases and that is giving this result. But of course, there are still inefficiencies in some of our factories, and we are striving to have higher margin going forward.

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. And I think we touched upon this quite a few times before, but some companies are now starting to say that there is an increased pressure on prices, of course, that you need to lower prices, et cetera. Are you lowering your prices? Or are you still arguing for price increases or relatively flat prices?

[James Ahrgren, executive]

No, I would say that we are trying to compensate the inflationary part that we still see. I mean there's still inflation out there and salaries are going up and so forth. So we still see that costs are going up. But despite that, it is then you have some raw materials and energy and also freight that is going down. So I would say it is flat. But of course, we are working constantly with our price optimization, as I said, to try to make sure that we have the margin we should have on the projects that we deliver. So it is more back to normal, I would say. We will not -- I don't expect to see any really big price increases going forward. We have some customers that we are still working on, but yes.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. And then if you look on the acquisition side, quite some time since you did your last acquisition. Can you say anything regarding the processes and are you seeing any improvements in the price expectations from sellers?

[James Ahrgren, executive]

I think that still price expectations are quite high. I can -- that is what I believe. And then we are a little bit picky with what we buy at the moment. We really want to find capacity rather than to buy just customers. So we want to find people, machines and space in certain markets. So I'm hoping that we can do something, but it should be done as well. And sometimes people want to get paid for a full factory when it's not full as well. So we are very picky, I would say. But I think that I have a few quarters more with high interest rates, it's not bad for us, I can say.

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. And then on the growth side, again, 28% organic growth, very impressive, of course. But how much of that is price? Is it double digits? Or is it starting to fade now year-over-year?

[James Ahrgren, executive]

I would say it's starting to fade now. I would say it's present something like that in...

[Unknown Analyst]

So volume growth is around 20% then?

[James Ahrgren, executive]

Yes and we can see it also in our delivery performance that it is really -- and we see it also in the number of people that we have grown. I mean, it is definitely not only price. We have almost 1,000 people more working or more than 1,000 people more working in our factories this year than last year. So it is clear that it is a lot of volume.

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. Sounds good. So I wish you good luck then and see you next quarter. Have a good summer.

[James Ahrgren, executive]

Any other questions? It is okay also to just say that it is a fantastic quarter also. Because it is.

[Unknown Analyst]

I fully agree, James. Great, impressive.

[James Ahrgren, executive]

Thank you, [ Andres. ] Okay. Then I think it was a quick one.

With that, I think I will wish you a very, very good summer, and we continue to working to increase profit per share, and then you can take a nice vacation. Okay. Thank you. Bye-bye.