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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Alimak Group Q4 Report 2017. Today, I'm pleased to present CEO, Tormod Gunleiksrud and CFO, Stefan Rinaldo. [Operator Instructions]I'll now hand you over to Tormod. Please begin.
Thank you for that, and welcome all of you who have dialed into this full year and quarter 4 results conference for Alimak Group. And I think before we dive into the quarter, I think I would like to give a short summary on how I view the Group result for the full year.First of all, I would like to say that, I think, 2017 was a very exciting year. We consider 2017 to be also a good year, also from a numbers perspective. The Group delivered organic growth above our financial targets, both on the order side, as well as on the revenue side. So from that perspective, I think still it was another strong year by the Group.But also very happy to see that we had a good development on the run rate of margin improvement. We came from a pro forma 12% in 2016, ended up on 13.2%, if you exclude the PPA adjustment. Adding to that, [ you see ] that the integration of the acquired businesses is well underway. I think 2017, all in all, was a strong year. Then there are some different flavors, if you look deeper down in the Q4, and I will also get back to that.If we then move to next page, Page 2, just to let you know that this presentation is also including acquired businesses. Avanti Wind Systems was consolidated as of February 1, 2017, while Facade Access Group was consolidated as of 1st of March, 2017.Moving then to next page, Page #3, so I've called a solid finish of a strong 2017. I was happy to see that the orders were strong for the acquired businesses in the quarter, while it was softer on the organic side. And I think it is well represented year with the picture of Sydney Harbour Bridge and the largest project we actually got in the history, coming out of the quarter. So I'm pleased to see that orders came in well on the acquired businesses.Also happy to see revenues coming out on construction after Q3, where there was some disappointment about the low revenue side coming out of construction. At that time, we also said that we did not really have too much fear about that, because we felt comfortable with that revenues coming out in Q4, and I think we also saw that actually taking place. As I already said, good pace on EBITA margin compared to the pro forma of 2016. So, all in all, I think it is still some strong points in the quarter.Maybe also if you look at our management assessment that we have done on a full year, starting with the order intake side, January to December would have been 5%, did not reach up to the quite 6%, and the same on the revenue side, also ended up on 5%. Still, 2 large acquisitions being completed in early 2017. So all in all, I think it's decent numbers that we came in with.If we move to next page, Page #4, take a look at the construction business area. And I think this is also one of the areas where I have a bit of a disappointment. After Q3, we had a year-to-date growth of 24% on the orders side, we end up at 8%. And of course, given those numbers that we had, it is not quite maybe what we had expected. So orders were definitely on the down side in the quarter. Is this a reflection of a slowdown? No, we don't see it like that at all. What we see, however, is that decision times on projects do take longer time, and that also is affecting us. Still, we have a strong good pipeline of projects moving forward. So I still see good activity levels actually in all markets, although, some of the decision processes are taking longer time. I think also I should add that we will have some tough comparisons in the coming 2 quarters. However, if I look at the full year, I still expect to see a construction area that is also growing on the order side and the revenue side in 2018.Moving then to next page, Page #5, moving into Industrial Equipment. As I said, strong orders for acquired businesses. I have to mention the Sydney Harbour Bridge once again, it was softer on the organic side. This has really to do with timing and we see the same also on the revenue side, which for the quarter was -- I would consider that revenue to be soft across the lines. However, we do have a strong backlog, it is all about making sure that backlog is coming out. I think Wind saw some challenging times during the second half. However, picked up quite nicely at the very end of the quarter. So all in all, I still have to say that moving forward I am quite positive.What is also good to see is that EBITA margin up from 1.9% comparative quarter last year, up to 4.8%. Of course, this is something that we need to continue to work on also going forward.Moving to next page, Page #6, After Sales. Very happy to see good pace on orders received. Revenues were strong with exception of Wind. We did have a challenging second half also on the After Sales side. Another disappointment would probably be the margin, the EBITA margin that we ended Q4 on. And is this the margin level that we expect to see going forward? No, that is not the margin level that we expect to see going forward. So we expect that margin to climb up closer to where we were in Q1 '17 -- Q3 '17, within that window. So we expect this to change going forward.Why did we end up at this margin? Well, I've already been touching upon the Wind side, in addition to some of the mix that we had on the revenue side and that is the mix between what is actually being service, i.e., labor, what is being [ parched ], what is being upgraded. So it's locked on to mix and as I already said, I expect to see that also change going forward.Moving then to next page, Page #7 takes us into Rental. I think to make that one relatively short. I think Rental had a strong good quarter in Q4, good on orders, solid revenues and margin in line with Q3 . So all in all, I would say that the pace that they have on the Rental side is very much living up to the expectations that we do have for the business.I think by that I should leave over to Stefan going through a little bit more on the details on the quarterly numbers. So if you move to Page #8, I think I hand that one over to Stefan. So Stefan, please go ahead.
Thank you, Tormod. So starting off with the quarter 4, as Tormod already mentioned, we had overall a good order intake and pro forma growth of 14% in the quarter. And the organic, as also was mentioned, was down around 6%, attributable of course to the decline in construction. Construction being on normal -- more normal order intake months would have brought us back to a growth position.On the revenue side, we have an organic growth in the quarter of 4% and that was a little bit on the low side, fueled then by the industrial revenue, which was across the line a little bit weaker. But I think it's worthwhile, Tormod has mentioned as well, to look into the full year and say that it is still organically a full year that is giving us 7% growth in order intake and 9% in revenue. So on the organic side, it's well in line with what we have expected and also what we have seen, although construction, as we mentioned before, was a little bit on the weak side. So that's good. And with the pro forma view or management assessment view on the full year, with everything consolidated, based upon the same like-for-like, it's 5% and 5%, and that of course indicated that the acquired businesses came out a little bit lower on growth than what the [ old ] organic or Alimak did. And that is basically corresponding to the fact that as and when we disclosed the acquisitions in 2016, I think you could also see and we reported on that, there had been very strong growth in both the businesses the year before and also in 2016. So they move in from a quite odd comparisons or comps in 2016. Anyway I think it's a good base for 2018.When we turn to next page on the earnings, I think there is no doubt about -- we said that we had a very good quarter EBITA wise. So the low outcome in After Sales margins, a little bit on the low side there, was compensated well with the very strong construction quarter. And as you can see from the report, it was, I would say, definitely the -- overall the best quarter margin that we have seen in construction going forward. And it's attributable of course to a good volume, but also to a very favorable product mix. A lot of the premium products and the big projects that we've taken earlier in the year was coming out in Q4 and contributing to the margin pickup in Q4.On this graph, I just want to also point out that in Q3 the dip in margin to 10.3% comes predominantly from the PPA adjustment. So that makes approximately 2% units down on the 10.3%. So it should have been 12.3%, if the PPA adjustment had not taken place. But all in all, looking at the full year, it's 13.2% full year margin in EBITA and I think that represents a good step from the pro forma level of 12% where we came from.Turning over to next page, Page 10, cash flow and net debt. Cash flow had a very soft start. I also reported that on Q3 that we had a soft start in the year and we expected that to pick up with the banking facilities and everything coming into place in the acquired units. And we've had good progress with both collection and getting this done. So it helped a good strong finish in the year, also helped of course, with favorable FX developments on converted loans, the acquisitions loans that were converted during the year in Q3. Cash came in, in Q4. That has helped us and we have continued to deleverage and paying [ also ] the net debt. So the leverage that we have now in -- after the fourth quarter at 1.72x, is well in line with our range. So the company and the Group has a very strong financial position in the end of 2017, and that looks good for the coming year.Next page, tax expense. We had very, very good tax ratio in quarter 4. As many other companies have reported, this comes from the revaluation of tax that we have due to the tax reform in the U.S. Unfortunately, it will not be recurring, I cannot promise 8% every quarter. So I think that we are -- we were operating close to 30% tax rate before this happened, and I've also disclosed before that I think we are going to end up, over time, here in the 27% to 28% bracket, which is a little bit higher than what old Alimak had. But given the fact that we now have a footprint that is bigger and higher in the little bit more high taxed area at this time, I think that's a fair statement. So we keep within that bracket while going forward as well. And we're going to move us down to that level when we have set the new structures in place for legal entities, as well as tax -- the tax reviews. So I think that's still a good -- so ended the year on 25%, helped by the very strong fourth quarter.Next page is Page #12, the earnings per share. I think it's not much to say here, it's more that the EPS continues to develop well. We ended the year on SEK 5.38 for the full year, and the Board of Directors proposed the dividend this year for being SEK 2.30, which corresponds to approximately 43% dividend rate.Page #13, a few words on the integration. This slide has been shown before. We've done small adjustments to it when it comes to adding the outcome in 2017. But all -- what we have said is that we started from a pro forma baseline of 12% in the EBITA margin and the synergies that we try to get out and will get out now from the integration is going to generate 2% units up on margin. And we also said that we'll -- the strategy target was 15%, which means that we have another 1% unit that we expect to get from business improvements in general. That should have been there, so to say, without the integration -- the direct integration activities. We are progressing well. We will continue to deliver now in 2018 from the integration from what we have done. The focus, as has been said before, has been on procurement and some manufacturing optimization, although this -- the acquisitions were never a matter of acquiring and restructuring factories, it was on procurement and specifically on After Sales.And on After Sales, we are working with the increased footprint, growing the business, but also making sure that we are more improved -- have an improved structure and getting more focused on offering the full scope service to the customers. And the people who were present and looked at what was disclosed when we've acquired the 2 businesses could see that the After Sales in these companies were operating on a lower margin level than Alimak. We believe, as we have said, part of the case is to increase this margin by helping in structure, but also focusing more on After Sales and trying to replicate what Alimak has done over the years in the After Sales area, and we are progressing well with that.So the 15 functional work streams are working. We have a couple of them coming close to end now, more directed towards the enabling factors, rather than achieving real work and bringing out the synergies in money. But we can reconfirm that we see no reason to change the integration cost estimate of SEK 110 million at this time. And we have spent some of the money in 2017. There will be more coming in 2018, according to the plan. So that is well in line with what we have said.Next -- looking at next slide and this is more flavor on what is this really. Well, one thing, of course, important to mention is that we launched the U.S. pilot for After Sales in -- during the fourth quarter. What is that? Well, it's about joining the sales and service organizations together in the country, to offer the customers a better service experience. And it's all about harmonizing both services, methodologies, processes and getting more combined spare part offering in the acquired business, as well as in Alimak -- old Alimak [ in the quarter ]. And the focus, of course, here is to grow this business.We are prepared, we have taken a lot of lessons learned from the U.S. start during Q4 and we are now preparing for launch into other markets, the rest of the major markets during 2018. I expect there to be around 3 waves of implementation of this similar [ parts, while ] we put the After Sales organization together with different countries in the different waves. But we will be more or less completed by the end of 2018 on the merge of the organizations.We also continue with the procurement integration. We have very good things that's all have been signed off with suppliers. We are continuing and identified potentials, good and well in line and a little bit above what we had expected in the beginning, so that's also progressing well. We have also continued and started now in 2018 the streamlining of administration support in the countries. So in the entities we have out in the different countries, we have now several legal entities. We are looking across the entities to see how we can improve the supply in these countries, how we can improve the services and support functions, especially, and also change the structure to really become one company, one offering. And on -- as a part of that of course is a legal and tax structure review, which is being implemented during 2018 and '19. So the admin setup will be geared toward more efficient structure, which is also part of the plan, and we are well setup to execute this during 2018 with effects coming in 2019.So with that flavor given, I think I'll hand back to Tormod then.
Thank you for that, Stefan. And if we move over to the next page, Page #15, a quick summary on the presentation. Starting with just, again, repeat, full year organic growth on order intake was about 7%. If you look at it from a pro forma view, we ended up at 5%, still close to the support of the organic growth target of 6%. While on the revenue side, we ended up on an organic growth of 9%, well above the financial target of 6%. And again, looking at the pro forma side of that, It ended up at 5%. Still, given the activities -- the level of activity with integration and everything, I'm quite happy with those numbers. In particular, I'm happy to see EBITA margin ended up in Q4 at 13.8% versus the full year of 13.2%, excluding the PPA adjustment that came through in quarter 3.So all in all, I think we are in a good pace on delivering on the targets that we have set. Also, again, Stefan has just taken you through the status and what we are doing on the integration side of the acquired companies and I'm very happy to see that this is progressing according to how we planned it. And it's also, of course, nice to see that the acquired companies are contributing significantly to the Group order intake and the revenue side of the business as well. So all in all, I have to say that the quarter [ 2017 ] -- sorry, the year 2017, I'm actually quite happy with the way it ended up and came through.Moving on to the next page, Page #16, just a quick rundown on the mid-term financial targets. Already touched upon the revenue growth target of 6%. I think we are well in line with that, at least on the organic side, that has been the target. We have an EBITA margin target of 15%, I will come back to that In short. While we have a leverage target of 2x, and as Stefan already presented, you can see that currently we are sitting at 1.72x. So I think we have had a good development also in respect of that target. And that, of course, also leave us with flexibility going forward.Moving on to the next page, Page #17, financial target EBITA margin. I was already touching upon the fact that we came from pro forma 2016 number of 12% for EBITA margin. I consider 2017 to have been fairly well on that trajectory towards the 15% with what we ended up with as 13.2%. So I do believe that we are on a good pace. Having said that, there is no reason to slow that down on that pace. We need to step it up. So all in all, I think we have -- are on a good platform on our journey towards fulfilling also the mid-term target for EBITA margin.And I think by that I just want to do one more thing during my presentation and that is to say thank you to all our 2,500 employees who have actually made these results or delivered on these results, created the value. It's highly appreciated what you are all contributing with. And with that, I think we are opening up for questions. So, please.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Mattias Holmberg from DNB Markets.
Well, Tormod, you rightly report that you are disappointed with the construction division compared to your expectations after the Q3 report. And now, during the presentation you said that you expect both sales and orders to grow in 2018. I'm Just wondering what are you basing your expectations on for 2018 and are you more certain now about 2018 than what you were about Q4 when you spoke in Q3, please?
I think, first of all, everything starts with understanding the activities that you see out in the market. And when we go through the pipelines of projects that are out there and that should normally be up for this decision during the quarters to come. That gives us good reason to be optimistic. We just have to make sure that we are competitive, we have the right portfolio in place, we have the right people in place and then it is really down to us, because as long as there is a market and there is a market that is of a size that we see should support the targets that we have set, that makes me in general positive, because then I know it is down to us to convert those opportunities into firm orders. And I also said that we will have some tough comps in the first 2 quarters, but all in all, I feel -- right now, at least, I feel confident that there is projects enough out there, although I've also said that decisions on those takes slightly longer than what we have seen. But I am still positive that we will see a growth also in '18, but I think we are facing 2 tough quarters in the beginning, simply because very tough comps on the -- in particular on the orders side. If you look at those quarters last year, they're going to be really tough to beat. So -- but all in all, I'm still positive, because there is a pipeline of projects out there that are supporting these ambitions as far as I can see it.
So just to summarize, it sounds like we may see negative growth in H1, but even if we do so, you think that 2018 as a whole could be positive in the construction division?
Yes, I think, that was if not spot on, I think you were within a reasonable window in that statement.
Great. Another thing, if we go to the After Sales division, quite disappointing margin there and you referred to the mix and you also say that you expect this to change going forward. I'm just wondering what makes you confident in that we will not see the same mix issue or effect in the future?
First of all, as I said -- I think I said that while I was touching upon the reason for the 25% being -- or coming out of the mix, but what we have also seen some effect of is of course the utilization, when we have -- now driving a number of units together in the U.S. during the pilot and that has also caused some issues on the utilization side when it comes to what people are doing, what kind of certifications do they need in order to work across product lines. And we have taken some learnings from that. I think we are also correcting for it. So that gives me a fairly -- I shouldn't say that we are making a huge jump in Q1. I'm just saying that going forward we should improve from here, and I would expect to be within a different window when it comes to the full year margin on After Sales compared to this level. That is I think what I'm trying to convey with my comments.
Just clarifying one thing before I step back in line. You said that -- you mentioned the utilization in the After Sales impacted margin from the rollout of the pilot in the U.S. and you would also continue to do so globally during 2018. So could we potentially see negative effects to the margin from the same type of effect with the rollout globally of the new After Sales platform?
I would not really hope that, because that would disappoint me a bit, because the whole idea of running a pilot is to test a concept that we have agreed upon that we believe is the best way of putting together a concept for the overall business, take learnings from that and correct when we start to roll this out in all other countries.
Our next question comes from the line of Kenneth Toll Johansson from Carnegie.
Most of my questions have been answered really, but maybe you can add a little bit on the outlook you talk about in the windmill industry and also for oil and gas, where we saw the first order. Do you expect to have more orders in both windmill and also in oil and gas going forward?
Yes, starting with the wind side, you know that the wind side had a fantastic -- in Alimak, the wind side had a fantastic first half in 2017. Then it really slowed down in the second half, while picking up again significantly, and that was really, globally it slowed down in the second half of 2017. Then I think a lot happened in December. Quite a few of you guys are also following the wind market as such and you saw how large OEMs, like Vestas, Siemens Gamesa, all closing large contracts on auctions just a week before Christmas. And of course, we are also expecting to be on the receiving end of that. So all in all, I have to say that the wind market really picked up again at the very, very end of 2017. And as I'm saying, we certainly expect to take our lion's share of that as well. So yes, I'm optimistic right now on the renewable side, or on the wind side. I think there is a lot of activity. There is a lot of activities in the North Sea. If you look at announcements that are coming out from Statoil, they are talking about being an energy company, putting a lot of investment into wind farms offshore [ Dudgeon ]. They're talking about billion of investments. So all in all, I think wind segment is -- boy! I'm quite positive on that segment going forward. If you then move to oil and gas, I said I think after Q2 that I would have hoped to see the first orders coming from the improvement on the CapEx side of the upstream oil and gas sides, that we would see that at the very end of 2017. That did not really happen. However, we got the first order -- a fairly large order on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, very, very beginning of January. I do expect to see a pickup in the oil and gas industry. However, I also probably would expect to see that return coming bit slower than maybe I would have expected a year ago. It's good to see, though, that the oil companies have done a lot on their cost side to making field developments highly competitive from a payback perspective. So all in all, I'm quite optimistic also for the return on the oil and gas side of the market. So I would expect to see some of that market coming back also during 2018, that's for sure.
Our next question comes from the line of Johan Dahl from SEB.
A couple of questions from me. Firstly, I was wondering, on construction, I hear what you're saying there, Tormod, regarding 2018. I was just wondering, the broadening of distribution in construction, how do you see that progressing in 2018 versus 2017. I'm basically trying to determine the impact of that to your construction order intake.
Sorry, can the broadening of...
Distribution. We know you have put a lot of effort into getting more distributors. I'm just trying to figure out what is sort of pipeline feeling in 2017 in construction and how that impacts 2018?
We are relentlessly working on getting new distributors in place and also covering geographies where we have been less present in the past. So that is an activity that is sort of continuously ongoing within the Group. I think what is important to understand is that most of these distributors, they are the ones selling the [ 1s and 2s and 10s ] of units, while if you look at some of the really, really strong quarters back in 2017, there were some mega projects that I would phrase them that we received. In particular, in U.K., just the last week of December in '16, I think we announced SEK 80 million for a project in London, that came through in -- as strong revenues in '17. And that was followed by a number of large projects in '17. So there is a mix of some large projects that are always good to get, while these distributors are bringing up their steady flow of new orders. So that -- this [ SEK 113 million ] should be less visible and you would fill up with maybe more base orders, if I could put it that way. So continue to develop both portfolio, as well as distributor channels to the market, will always have a high priority and will be a continuous activity within Alimak. We have a great success since we really started to refocus on the distributor side back in 2013, '14, and we have really seen the fruits coming out of that. So it is extremely important for us to continue on that work.
Okay. Just a follow-up on wind. I guess our primary concern is not volumes as such, but more how the margin pressure in that industry will trickle down to suppliers. Could you just elaborate how your discussions with your customers are ongoing, how you will share this with your customers, the margin pressure and also what contingency plans you have in this area to mitigate the new price pressure?
Yes, I mean we would of course like to share this with our suppliers. And I think that --
Or what your customers are thinking, rather?
Yes -- no, but we -- I think this is a little bit like the automotive industry. The wind OEMs, they have an extreme focus on cost. I'm not so sure if that is bad. That keeps us on our toes, it helps us to have an extreme cost focus on not only the wind portfolio, but also to take that focus into the rest of our portfolio. So for us, it is all about making sure that whatever price pressure is coming on us, we also translate this demand into our own supply chain and also our own cost level. So all in all, we just have to adapt to these kind of price levels and that goes for both our supply chain, as well as our own value creation internally. And to me that is nothing but normal business.
Got you. Can you just -- a final question, can you just clarify your position in terms of procurement of steel, very rapid raw material price increases there it seems. When do you expect that to hit you? And finally on currency, the depreciation of the dollar, when -- what do you expect that to impact you and when will that happen?
Johan, on the steel side, as I said, in the old Alimak setup before the acquisitions, we stated that we have somewhere around 10% approximately of the costs coming directly linked to the raw materials and that were directly linked to the sales. That's pure raw materials coming from a mill or something. And when you look at what we have done now, the analysis done during the year for the acquired businesses, we don't -- that doesn't -- that picture doesn't change much. It's of course a little bit different in different BAs, but all over it's -- direct steel is around 10%. And then, of course, on top of that you have machined components and parts that are -- have its origin in steel and other raw materials when they're being fabricated and made. So that would bring it up another 10% to 15% units. But the difference here of course is that a permanent increase of steel price in the whole industry, so to say, that's going to trickle out through all the people that receive these price increases through -- onto the customer chain. For us, we handle it through 3 to 6 months contracts which we have, and you have the 3 to 6 months contract effect on, say, the raw material. When it comes to the machined components, it varies. So a temporary spike between 6 and 12 months doesn't normally affect us that much. But if you have a long-term trend going up, then of course, in the end, our prices will have to go up as well to accommodate for the higher raw material increase in the market. On the FX, looking at the new Group, we had said before that we had in the old Alimak a position where we were net sellers on a transaction level on the U.S. dollars, we sold products in U.S. dollars more than we, say, consumed in the Group, and also in euro. That has changed with the new acquired units, we have now gone into a buyer of euros. We have a bigger cost -- part of our cost in the eurozone. U.S. dollar, however, has increased, so we have an exposure today with around SEK 600 million level in U.S. dollars compared to the SEK 400 million, SEK 420 million we had in the old Alimak setup. So slightly a higher exposure in the U.S. dollars, but then of course on a much larger volume as well. So in relationship, it's actually gone down. But look in -- when we look at the way we work, we are converting the new Group into following the same setup as we have had in the old Alimak when it comes to FX and handling and we are at this time, I would say, approximately have a structure of FX hedges that are running for approximately 4 months. Then we will see -- start to see the effect of the U.S. dollar movements.
4 months from today, is that the correct interpretation now?
Well, it's a rolling 4 months. So I mean, you can say that -- the 4 months -- the next coming 4 months is kind of hedged in terms of -- that's already done, and then it varies. That's an average, because you have projects -- longer projects that are hedged for longer periods, [indiscernible] a limit where you don't -- it doesn't really pay us to do it any longer. But -- so approximately 4 -- we have probably say 4 months [ sliding ] compared to where the dollar is moving against the SEK.
So a small impact then in the 2017 numbers, I presume?
Yes. We have some, but it's 50% units.
[Operator Instructions] And as there appear to be no further telephone questions, I'll return the conference to our speakers.
Thank you. And then I think it just remains for me to say thank you to all of those who had dialed in to listen to Alimak Group's result presentation for Q4 and the full year 2017. And yes, see you guys soon and I wish all of you a good day and a good weekend. And thanks from all of us here at Alimak. Thank you, bye.