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Welcome to the AAK Q4 2022 Report Presentation. [Operator Instructions]
Now I will hand the conference over to CEO, Johan Westman; and CFO, Tomas Bergendahl. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Good day, everyone. Welcome to the Q4 earnings call for AAK. As you heard, it will be myself, Johan Westman, CEO, as well as our CFO, Tomas Bergendahl. We will present the earnings in this call. We will follow the agenda with some highlights, key events, business and financial updates and then some concluding remarks before we take questions. Pretty much as usual.
So with that, let's move into today's presentation on Page 3 in your deck. We close out 2022 with a strong quarter also in quarter 4. We continue to deliver, you could argue, in a very dynamic business climate. We have had a year with continued inflationary pressure, volatile raw material markets, we've been exiting Russia, et cetera; but yet we have continued to steadily deliver throughout the year and so also in quarter 4.
While volumes are a bit softer in the quarter mainly due to our exit from Russia as well as our continued optimization of the Bakery business, we're improving our margins, which is also fully in line with our strategy and our long-term aspiration. Our operating profit in the quarter compared to last year is up 14% when you look at that at fixed FX, fixed currency rates. And our operating profit per kilo, our margin is up 22% year-on-year at fixed FX. So all in all, a strong finish to 2022.
Also what is very good to see in the fourth quarter is that we have now seen a positive strong cash flow impacted by the lower raw material prices that we started to see mid-2022 and as we have commented before, we expected that to have a positive impact on our cash flow and our net working capital with a 6 to 9 months lag, but we have now seen an impact already in Q4. So that is all good.
As with regards to dividend, the Board of Directors has proposed a 10% increase of the dividend so going from SEK 2.50 last year to SEK 2.75 per share for this year. What we have also done, we have focused and continued to deliver on our sustainability agenda and in Q4 we submitted our targets for the Science Based Targets initiative. So also there, we are moving ahead.
With that, let's move on to next page, Page 4. In November we announced that we continue our geographical expansion with a bolt-on in India. India has developed well for us. We've had a steady state moving from a joint venture to owning 100% share of that business in India and had continuously grown and we have increased our operating profit as well in a good pace over the last couple of years.
On the Capital Markets Day, we also discussed and before that we announced in a press release the acquisition of Arani Agro Oil. Before this, we were located on the West Coast servicing customers around that area and now we also add AAK to the East Coast of India and from there we will continue to grow. So a nice bolt-on geographical expansion. During the Capital Markets Day, we also presented our updated strategy and our long-term aspiration.
We have set an ambitious aspiration for 2030 which is about doubling our EBIT per kilo our margin in our specialty journey going forward, to grow faster than the market as well as to be recognized for the increasingly positive impact that we're making towards our stakeholders. So all in all, a good momentum for AAK as well as stating our long-term ambition or aspiration.
With that, let's go into the business areas that we report. First, Food Ingredients on Page 5. So despite a volume decline very much linked to exiting Russia in a year-on-year comparison as well as our continued Bakery optimization, we do deliver a strong operating profit. Operating profit is up 33% versus last year at fixed FX and operating profit per kilo is up even 43% at fixed FX compared to last year. So the result is very much driven by our margin expansion.
Main drivers here are that we actively work with our contract portfolio, we have actively managed a volatile year, a dynamic year and we continuously work with our portfolio really doing portfolio management across the board especially so in Dairy and Bakery. We've also seen a better mix and somewhat an impact of lower raw material prices for our Special Nutrition business so a better profitability or margin in our Special Nutrition business. So all in all, a good development for Food Ingredients. With that, heading into Chocolate & Confectionery Fats. Volumes declined as reported a bit 10%, but keep in mind that Russia was one of the bigger market for Chocolate & Confectionery Fats. So if we look at this on comparable numbers, we're actually increasing slightly 1% in the rest of the world excluding Russia.
When you then look at operating profit, we are up 1% at fixed FX, but keep in mind last year we had a contribution from Russia with about SEK 40 million. So again comparing like-for-like, our profit is up and it's a strong development in the quarter. Operating profit is up 12% at fixed FX. So again continue to drive margin expansion also in Chocolate & Confectionery Fats. With that, let's move into our third business area, which is Technical Products & Feed on Page 7. The strong trend that we have seen over some time, it continued. We are up 20% in operating profit year-on-year and our margin is up, our operating profit per kilo is up 17%. In quarter 4, this was mainly driven by our feed business where we had volume growth as well as better margins in our business related to natural ingredients where we replace fossil-based ingredients or mineral oil in other solutions in various industries. So a good development all in all.
And with those comments on the different business areas, I would like to hand it over to Tomas, our CFO, for some comments on the raw material development as well as more details on the financials. Tomas?
Thank you, Johan, and good morning, everyone. Continuing on Slide 8. After 2 years of significant increases in raw material prices, as Johan also mentioned, from mid-2020 doubling or tripling on certain materials, we have experienced decline after prices topped out in June 2022. A rapid decline then took place in Q3 and what we've seen in Q4 is comparatively a very stable raw material price market still to remember at significantly higher price levels than before the increase began. And as previously mentioned, changes in raw material prices significantly impacts the working capital of AAK.
Slide 9, please. The end of Q4 generated strong working capital driven cash flow. December in particular, working capital was positively impacted by the reduction in raw material prices that we saw earlier in the year and in line with the 6 to 9 months lag effect that we mentioned before, closer to the 6 months than the 9 months. And again a reminder here that the raw material prices that we currently see are not down to the level we saw 2 years ago before the increases started. So everything else equal, the full increase of our working capital is not expected to be released given the price levels that we see now. When we look at our interest cost, it's continued to increase quarter-over-quarter and this is then coupled with the increasing raw material prices in the second half or impact of the increasing raw material prices in the second half of the year, which then drives up working capital and subsequent need for liquidity.
This item also includes a one-time year-to-date adjustment of noncash effect connected to the required Turkey related hyperinflation calculation, which affects the number here but it's noncash. CapEx related activity saw a productive quarter ending slightly higher than expected at close to SEK 500 million and for the year just north of SEK 1.2 billion in 2022. Our expectation for 2023 remains as previously stated just north of SEK 1 billion for the year in full. This resulted in an operating cash flow in the quarter of just north of SEK 1 billion and free cash flow close to SEK 600 million. And with the reduced level of raw material prices in the second half of '22, as we have expressed previously as well, expect a continued positive impact on our cash flows driven by working capital during the first half of '23 and this is likely to be front-loaded in that period.
Next slide please, Slide 10. And as previously indicated, our return on capital employed continues to decline slightly down from 14.8% in Q3 to 14.5% in Q4. Year-over-year the measurement is down roughly 1% and this then despite the Q4 late improvement in working capital as this, as you know, is a 12-month rolling definition which creates a bit of a lag effect. Slide 11, please. Looking at our net debt over EBITDA, it shows a continued decline in Q4 down to 1.71 on the back of strong profit growth and reduced working capital driven by lower raw material prices. Year-over-year the measurement is still up from 1.25 same quarter last year, but down from the peak in Q2 of '22 at 2.03.
Back to you, Johan.
Thank you, Tomas. And with that, we head into the last slide of the presentation. So before we open up for questions, just a few concluding remarks. We are summing up 2022 with had a strong quarter, quarter 4. We have had a double-digit earnings growth during the year, during quarter 4 as well. We really drive our margins upwards with some margin expansion. We have a strong performance, especially when you consider the very dynamic business climate. I mentioned that before, but I think it's worth reflecting a bit on. Entering the year with high raw material prices, high inflationary pressure across the board and uncertainty, still uncertainty around the supply chains where we operate as well as the exit out of Russia. When you take all of that into account and you look at the year and our numbers, it's a strong performance by our organization.
And I'm very proud to be part of this very passionate and driven organization of AAK that shows that we can handle uncertainty, we can maneuver and navigate in turbulent times while at the same time benefiting from serving somewhat stable markets with regards to, for example, food and food ingredients where there is a continuous need to feed the world. We have also continued to grow geographically with the acquisition in India. We have announced our new aspiration where we refocus the organization of really driving margins upwards as well as continuing to grow the business. And we have also on the back of that structure followed strategy adjusted the organization with a sharper organizational structure, including our executive committee to really support and execute our strategy going forward.
So despite continued uncertainty and somewhat weaker economic and economical climate in general in the world, we do remain prudently optimistic given our strong business model, our solid end markets that we serve and we have shown that we are robust in the way we operate. So with that despite uncertainty, I remain confident about our ability to continue to navigate and deliver.
With that, happy to take questions.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Simen Aas from DNB.
So I have 2 quick ones. So could you just give us some flavor on the Group Functions cost line here. It was very high and I understood there were some one-offs there. I wonder if you could just quantify those to make it easier to get a rough feel for this line in '23?
Simen, thank you for your question. Yes, Group Functions cost increased. Last year same quarter was SEK 60 million, we're up to SEK 95 million this year and it's a temporary increase and we don't see that level going forward. It was driven by investments into research and product development related cost, also consultancy services in several areas including sustainability, tax and so forth and then also a severance pay associated with the reorganization and the strengthening of the organization at AAK as Johan mentioned in his final comments. The expected run rate going forward, then we're back to more normal level of what we've seen before, I would say around SEK 50 million or so per quarter.
Okay. That's very clear. Another technical question here on the net financials, there were some one-off here in Turkey. Could you just quantify what that was and what's kind of driving net financials here just to get a feel for that line as well?
Yes, absolutely. The onetime, which is then a noncash year-to-date adjustment in 2022 is related to the Turkish hyperinflation calculation. So when we look at the Q4 effect, 2/3 of the negative net financials in Q4 was noncash and fully related to that hyperinflation calculation in accordance with IAS 29. The remaining finance net is driven by mainly 3 things: our debt level, interest rates as well as dividend from minority shareholdings. So that's the Q4 impact.
Okay. That's very clear and very helpful. And just one last 1 for me. So was pretty surprised about the very strong cash flow here and you said that December was positively impacted by raw materials, but why wasn't this communicated earlier or didn't you have visibility back at Q3 of this one? Was it just the continuous drop in raw materials? What was driving that? Just to get a comment on that would be helpful.
Sure. I would argue it was commented earlier meaning that we have always commented that there is a 6 to 9 months lag, but there's also a total contract portfolio that moves depending on business and the length of contract with customers. So it's difficult to have an exact date when things start dropping in and flowing out. So we've always said we expected it to be in the beginning of 2023, but saw it a bit earlier tapping into quarter 4 2022. So I would argue that that's a big part of the communication there is that 6 to 9 months.
I agree with that. So that's clear. That's a positive obviously, just those came as a surprise here. But that's good.
Still a bit fluctuating and uncertain when exactly. But as we said with the sharp up and then the sharp down as well as we saw capital, call it, moving out in net working capital or cash flow moving out in net working capital, we will see cash flow coming in over net working capital and that's what we saw. I don't know, Tomas, if you have anything else to comment.
And sorry, I mentioned I believe as well this was something. The main effect -- the positive effect came in December so late in the quarter and that's exactly 6 months after the initial drop from the top in June of '22. And as I think I mentioned, it's not an exact sign, it's either or under. The 6 months at least for now seems to be closer to the reality than the 9 months in the time frame. So we expect the beginning of this year to continue to be strong.
The next question comes from Alex Sloane from Barclays.
A few questions on my side, please. Just in terms of the Chocolate & Confectionery Fats business I mean excluding Russia, there was obviously a slowdown in the fourth quarter I think plus 1% from plus 11% in Q3. Is that just weaker end markets or is there any destocking pressure within that slowdown? And in terms of the kind of trajectory of performance going forward, should we take this Q4 run rate as a guide for the first half of '23 or are there reasons why this could reaccelerate? And then just a second one. I mean obviously on TP&F, on Technical Products & Feed, I mean a really strong year. Another very strong year, I think over SEK 300 million profit for the first time, which clearly I think you saw double the levels of 3, 4 years ago.
I wonder if you could sort of frame that as to how much of that has been kind of structural growth from natural ingredients versus maybe benefits from the crush margin and is the SEK 300 million base of EBIT there a sort of sustainable base from which you can grow in 2023? And then if I can just squeeze in a final one. I'm not quite sure, Tomas, I understand the SEK 276 million noncash adjustment from Turkey hyperinflation. Can you maybe give us just a little bit more color on that? I appreciate it's a noncash effect, but looking at the waterfall chart EBITDA to free cash flow, do we infer from that then there was a benefit that you booked to EBITDA from this effect in Q4?
So we start on the last one, Tomas, maybe and then I go back to the first questions.
Yes. When it comes to the hyperinflation calculation in Turkey, that's not in the other noncash items. That's in the paid interest and taxes line. The other noncash items is mainly driven by market valuation of currency and raw material derivatives and this fluctuates a bit. So if you look at the quarter, it's SEK 276 million. If you look at the full year, I think the number is SEK 63 million. So the impact of this over time should be fairly small. I hope that answers your question.
And then if that's okay with you, Alex, then I'll move into CCF and TPF. So with regards to slowdown or not and destocking or not, I think -- and I will probably repeat myself a bit from before. It's difficult to see exactly what is destocking, what's a slowdown and so because we're not speaking massive numbers and we're still supplying a fairly stable end market in terms of both Food Ingredients and Chocolate & Confectionery Fats while chocolate could be somewhat more volatile you can argue depending on how consumers shop. We haven't seen a massive impact of what has been mentioned as destocking. But when you look at the overall market around Chocolate & Confectionery, you see somewhat lower volumes across the board and when you look at peers to us and our customers how they report, you've also seen that in those numbers. So if you look at it from that angle, you could see that we're still performing and then how much is the slowdown versus flattening a bit in the market, difficult to see.
But we have certainly had the impact from Russia which is easy to calculate, whether it's destocking or not a bit more difficult. But comparing to the overall market for Chocolate & Confectionery, which has been in a decline, our 1% still holds quite strong. But of course as you say compared to quarter 3, lower year-on-year growth, but we're also comparing to a strong quarter last year. So all in all, I will say a solid performance. With regards to TPF, we have certainly a good crushing margin still. But if you look in a quarterly perspective year-on-year, that is not the explanation. It's rather a volume pickup in feed as well as a good development in our natural ingredients as we call it. But if you look at it in a longer horizon, it is an impact of also the crushing margins. So if you look at this chart that we have also on Page 7 if you look at that as end of 2021 and 2022 combined, yes, there is also an element of the crush margin versus earlier years like '19 and '20.
That's helpful. And I mean just on that last point, is there any reason to expect that to kind of change in '23 or would you expect kind of a flat outlook there?
I think what we're seeing, I mean there's obviously a lot of things that go into a business area. So if you look at this one in particular, we have continuously worked on also operational improvements internally, we have better productivity, better throughput times, optimizing the way we operate. But then when you look at crush margin, there is an element of, of course how is the market developing and that I cannot guide you on or forecast. But everything else is still a lot of improvements internally both in terms of operational improvements as well as targeting end markets where we have solutions that can fit in this case the natural ingredients.
The next question comes from Alexander Jones from BofA.
Two, if I can. The first on Special Nutrition, you talk about positive mix there from both products and geography. Can you give us a bit more color on that both in terms of what happened in Q4 and whether we can expect that margin improvement to continue into 2023? And then a second question on M&A and leverage given that started now to come back down with the working cap unwinding, how does your appetite for M&A change and what opportunities are you seeing in the market relative to normal at the moment?
So the first one there on Special Nutrition. So the positive mix you can call it is a continued good development in our main market, our core market, which is the high value-added premiumized segment. So we continue to deliver there and with an impact as we have mentioned before. Earlier we mentioned a negative impact as we saw raw materials coming up sharply, that put some more competitive pressure especially towards the end market in China. With raw materials coming down, we have a better position and that has served us in the numbers that we see. With regards to the mix as such, it's rather that we sell less of a few products in the lower-end spectrum of margins and with that you get a positive impact on the margins where the high-end products are stable and with a good demand. So that's I guess the explanation of product mix together with somewhat lower cost of goods sold call it due to raw material price.
Then if we take M&A, maybe sounds as if I'm joking a bit, but honestly my appetite -- our appetite hasn't decreased at all during a bit of a higher net debt to EBITDA leverage. So it's remains high. I think there are opportunities for us. We've done a smaller bolt-on here in India. We're certainly active, we're certainly looking. We haven't stopped looking just because of the leverage level. But of course with adjusted raw material prices and our net working capital hopefully coming down to a more normalized level and raw material prices hopefully staying also at normalized levels, that of course puts us back to a very strong balance sheet which gives us the call it freedom to operate. So with that, I would say that appetite is still strong and with a lower leverage at least, less call it hesitation to do something should an opportunity materialize.
The next question comes from Kenneth Toll Johansson from Carnegie.
So one question on the improvements that you have been talking about quite many quarters now in Bakery, you have optimized the product offering there. But how much is it to go? Are you reaching some kind of limit on how much you can improve that?
Of course when you do optimization, there is sometimes a leap impact, there is sometimes more of a long-term continuous improvement impact. We have worked heavily under the strategy that we have, our portfolio-based strategy where we called out specifically to really try to optimize and we have certainly done that within Bakery, also in Dairy. But it is also something that we are implementing across the board. It is a better, a more professional product management, pricing for contract management. So while I wouldn't say we have topped out on Bakery because we will continue to optimize, we'll continue to seek higher value-added solutions within that space while at the same time optimizing the cost to serve; there is such opportunities as well in the other segments that we serve.
We have those opportunities in our Chocolate & Confectionery business, we have those opportunities in Special Nutrition as well as in Technical Products & Feed. And you can hear that in some of the sub comments that we are actively working on getting better at optimizing our total loading of our business also including in our CapEx decision. Not too early go to new CapEx, increase the capacity and take in volume; but rather trying to be focusing on getting the right type of volume continuously driving towards higher margins, which is exactly what our aspiration is about. So call it there is a shift in mindset, focus and drive around margin improvement and that in a simple world is called optimization.
Sounds great. And also a more technical question for Tomas maybe. The FX improvement or the positive effect from FX was very high in the third quarter and when I look at the FX changes, they were a bit similar or even higher for Q4, but the tailwind from FX was lower in Q4 than in Q3. Is there any special explanation for the much lower FX tailwind in Q4 than in Q3?
The FX impact and it's a quarter-by-quarter translational effect that we calculate and it's driven by 2 things mainly. It's the change in currency rates and the second thing is the change is translational from a comp perspective of regional results. And the last point was the main driver in Q4 where it is Turkey, which in a very volatile and dynamic situation has had a performance change from Q3 to Q4 and that's the main driver of this. So as you see as well the currencies versus SEK hasn't changed much, but this is then the impact from regional results as we translate it into SEK and it's mainly driven by Turkey again.
Okay. And that also means that it's very hard to give any guidance going forward or [indiscernible]?
It is difficult to predict and particularly with Turkey and the mix to be honest, yes.
The next question comes from Oskar Lindstrom from Danske Bank.
Three questions here. First, just on Special Nutrition. You mentioned that you were selling fewer low margin products. Could you tell us what segments and/or products this is? And then the second question is on the Bakery optimization. Is this something that's going to continue or is that optimization completed now and are you planning any or seeing opportunities for further optimization in other segments? And then my third question is on ROCE. So I mean you continue to have very impressive EBIT and EBIT per kilo growth and still ROCE has been deteriorating. Has this I mean only been due to the high raw material costs and should we therefore expect the ROCE trend to significantly reverse or is there some other reason that you're building up capital employed?
I think we start and go backwards. So Tomas, if you start with the ROCE and then we take Bakery and then I end with the Special Nutrition question.
The simple answer, Oskar, is yes. It's driven by increased raw material prices and the buildup that we had from mid-2020 to mid-2022 and coupled with better and improved earnings during that period. But the raw material prices as they've doubled and tripled, they take out the positive effect of improved earnings during the same period. What we do see now is a slowdown I would say. We expected it to continue to decrease slightly. But if you look at the quarter alone, you see an opposite direction on the return on capital employed calculation. So there is a lag here as well since its rolling 12-month measurement. So if the good trend continues now as we expect it to do, that would have a positive impact on the return on capital employed measurement as well.
And then back to Bakery optimization, I think I did comment that on the earlier question but just to repeat. We continuously focus on optimization. There's still opportunities in Bakery to optimize the cost to serve as well as continuously finding opportunities to deliver high value-added solutions. There are certainly a need for high value-added solutions, more specialty products also in the Bakery segment so I think that can continue. Of course when you do a focused effort like we have done, you get somewhat more in the beginning and maybe less later. But as I also mentioned, we have a program across the board in AAK around product management, portfolio management and optimization honestly. So that is opportunities that we are working with, but also can cross leverage and learn from what we have done in Bakery. So I do see that there is a potential for similar improvements in all the segments that we serve and that is part of our action plan to deliver on our aspiration.
It's to really work with the product portfolio as well as optimizing how we operate, produce and with that, getting a totally better margin in a combination of price optimization, portfolio optimization as well as a better cost of goods sold. And that should be possible to continue to deliver also in other segments and, as I mentioned, that's certainly part of the strategy going forward. And then with regards to Special Nutrition, we had a period of a few contracts with somewhat lower margin type solutions that we have been selling that we're not selling anymore, but still selling the usual high-end products as before. So in a year-on-year comparison, that becomes a call it mix improvement on margins and then topped up which is very positive, seeing a better margins from raw materials coming down to somewhat more normalized levels compared to before. Where in Special Nutrition, as I think you know if you followed us for some time, there is more of long-term contracts in the mix so not as easy to adjust pricing from month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter.
The next question comes from Karri Rinta from Handelsbanken.
I wanted to talk a little bit about Infant Nutrition and mainly in China because I think for some quarters now you have commented that that market has been weaker. So is this purely a reflection of declining birth rates or does it have anything -- do you think that it has anything to do with COVID lockdowns and anything related to that or maybe changes in the competitive landscape? And maybe going forward, do you expect any change in these trends for this coming year?
So I think it's very difficult to draw an exact comparison or do the analytics on COVID, China opening up or so and of course COVID or not, children eat and so forth. So quite difficult to see that impact, but I don't think it's a negative when they start to open up if I put it that way. What we have seen is that our specialty solutions have been stable and with that then adding in lower raw material costs, that becomes a positive. And if you look at stable compared to lower birth rates and so forth, that is actually good if you look at the market development. So going forward, we will continue to focus on serving the premiumization opportunities that we see ahead of us and if indeed birth rates stabilize or start turning in China, that's going to be positive maybe not in the short to midterm, but longer term. And then we also see continued opportunity.
Infant Nutrition as such across the globe, we think that there is a long-term opportunity in Europe as well as in the U.S. for higher demand of higher quality, more value-added oils and fat solutions into the infant formula blends also there. And then if we expand it into our total Special Nutrition or nutrition focus, we also see a continued opportunity for oils and fat solutions with regards to a broader spectrum of nutrition not just for infants, but for toddlers as well as performance nutritions for call it everything between toddler and being old. And then as you know, already we have a focus on Senior Nutrition. Some of these things have been kind of slow, but with a focus on health, with a focus on more value-added premium solutions; we do believe that going forward strategically and part of our 2030 aspiration, there is an opportunity in the broader spectrum of nutrition as well.
Great. And then sorry, but I would like to follow-up on the other noncash items that you have on your cash flow and in this bridge graph. So just to understand so what are the components behind this SEK 276 million and is there a corresponding item on the income statement?
The answer to the last one is yes. And the main driver of the SEK 276 million is, as I mentioned before, it's a market valuation of currency and raw material derivatives. And looking at a single quarter, as I also mentioned, there is a timing effect here as well. So looking at the year as a whole, as I said, it's about SEK 63 million of an effect. So that's the level that we've seen in 2022 as a whole.
Okay. But which line in the income statement is affected by this?
It sits above EBIT in the income statement.
Okay. But it might be spread out little bit different.
Yes. But it is affecting the EBIT and EBITDA, yes.
[Operator Instructions] There are no more questions. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Thank you so much. Thank you all for listening into our fourth quarter earnings call and for all your questions. To sum it up, we end on a strong note. A strong quarter 4, increased earnings, increased margins and that sums up a strong 2022 especially with regards to a very dynamic year. So again, thank you for listening in and looking forward to talk to you in the next earnings call. Bye-bye.