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Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2020-Q4

from 0
Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the AAK Q4 report for 2020. [Operator Instructions] I am now pleased to present, Johan Westman, President and CEO. Please begin your meeting.

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

Thank you so much, and good morning, everyone. This is the quarter 4 earnings call, the end of the year call for AAK. Together with me, I have also Fredrik Nilsson, our CFO. And today's agenda, you have on Page 2. We will start with a bit of an update, some information by business area, some more details on the financials as well as a bit of an update on ESG and purpose, sustainability as a whole as well as some concluding remarks from myself. And we are happy to take questions after that.Let's then head into Page #3. COVID-19 is still present. I think that is evident to everyone. But a bit of perspective on 2020. It's a pandemic that is here, and now we see additional restrictions and lockdowns. Reflecting on 2020, AAK, we have shown the resilience of our business, and we have really adapted to new reality.This has been done with the strength of the AAK organization. We have put the highest priority and continue to have that on health and safety. I'm also impressed with the continuous plans that we implemented early in the year, starting in the East, in China and into Europe and in the Americas to really deal with this unprecedented situation. And with that, we have as a global key supplier of food ingredients, been able to deliver, keep our supply chains up and running, operational, and that has not been easy, but it has been done. Uncertainty is still high, but really, I'm confident in the way we have been able to adapt and drive AAK forward. And with that also supply key ingredients to food supply chains.We are also learning a lot in this situation. We have adapted the way of working and so forth. But really, this is about time to also highlight the achievement by our organization. This passion and drive and agility that we have in our organization with all the employees in AAK, those are strengths that we build on going forward in uncertainty as well as when we engage in new strategic opportunities.So with that, let's continue a bit more into the numbers and the performance of the business on Page 4. Summarizing 2020 as a whole. In spite of the COVID challenges, we have delivered good results. We have, even on a full year basis, reached slightly better operating profit compared to last year. And at fixed FX, it's even up 5% when comparing to 2019. We continue to drive forward with our strategic focus. We deliver more and more speciality solutions with higher value-added and also better margins. Good growth in our Chocolate & Confectionery business. It was a difficult quarter in quarter 2. But as an organization and as a whole, we have adapted and pushed forward. Strong growth also for Plant-based Food, plant-based food ingredients. Our plant-based oils and fats really enables our customers to deliver better and better solutions for plant-based dairy, plant-based meat and so forth. We're also seeing a continued strong demand for high value-added infant formula solution within our area of Special Nutrition. There is a great demand for more high-end solutions going into production of infant formulas.Based on this performance and our strong balance sheet, a strong financial platform as a whole, we -- the Board of Directors has also proposed an increased dividend for last year, and the dividend is proposed at SEK 2.30 per share.Now a few more specific comments to the quarter 4. It was really a strong finish to an unprecedented year. Our operating profit is up 8% and even higher when comparing that at fixed FX. Within this, we did have a significant loss of volume in Foodservice. Foodservice compared to last year is, of course, impacted by COVID, you've heard that throughout the year. And quarter 4, of course, also had lower volumes compared to last year and especially also towards the end of the quarter, where additional restrictions and lockdowns across the world, again, impacted volumes. And of course, we'll continue to do until restrictions are lifted and so forth.But again, as a whole in AAK, with a good performance in Special Nutrition, the more high-end solutions we sell, the continued growth in Plant-based Food really kicked forward also in Q4, and we also saw a strong year-over-year improvement in Chocolate & Confectionery fats, driven by sequential improved volume still for the quarter as a whole but also when comparing to last year, a significantly improved cost structure. You remember that we had significant supply chain costs in a few years back in '18 as well as in '19. And now we have implemented these improvements in capacity, in productivity, and we have better yield in kernel. That as a whole, has brought down the cost level in our company for Chocolate and Confectionery Fats production. So all in all, those characteristics really drive the improvement of result. We also have had a continued strong performance in Technical Products & Feed. So all in all, a strong finish to 2020.On Page 6, we have a few highlights of the quarter. We continue to invest in Plant-based Food. We are, of course, an ingredient supplier. We are fully focused on plant-based raw materials and refining oils and fats for that. The growth in this sector is phenomenal. And we have joined the MISTA innovation platform in California. It gives us a network of colleagues in the industry. It gives us exposure to customers included -- we are included in also development projects and so forth. So really a good platform for us to continue to develop new solutions. We are also investing in a center of excellence outside Amsterdam, where we will really build a top-notch customer experience center for R&D, customer innovation activities to really showcase how Plant-based Food solutions for dairy alternatives for plant-based meat can be developed and improved, be it, made better together with AAK and our solutions.On Page 7, I have with me today, Fredrik, and he will soon speak to you. He is making his last earnings call, not the last earnings call, but the last one with AAK, at least for now. And -- but I'm also happy to now announce and present with this picture, Tomas Bergendahl, who will join AAK by the 1st of May, so a bit earlier than earlier expected. Very happy to have Tomas on board. He comes in with a great experience and will be a good add on to the team. And at the same time, I want to take the opportunity to thank Fredrik for his contributions to AAK over many, many years. But we now have a very good solution in place. And in the short period of time between Fredrik leaving and Tomas joining, we have Jarl Andreasson on from our finance team, who will be acting CFO until Tomas steps in.With that, a few more comments on our different business areas on Page 8 and forward. Within Food Ingredients, we see a bit of a mixed bag, if you could call it that. Foodservice, as I mentioned before, is in a year-over-year perspective, low on volumes. Although, we have adapted, we have taken actions, adapted our structure, but the volumes are significantly lower and especially towards the end of the quarter with the restrictions that we have impacting restaurants and airline catering, et cetera. And we do expect these volumes to gradually come back as soon as restrictions start to be lifted, and we get back to something more normal.At the same time, very strong year-over-year improvement in the other segments, especially nutrition, very much driven by a higher degree of demand by consumers or the mothers and fathers buying more high-end infant formulas. And with that, our high-end ingredients are included in those.We also see continued growth, as I mentioned, on -- in Plant-based Food. It's been a very significant growth in the quarter-to-quarter comparison. And we've also managed to continue to drive in most of the segments, a focus on high value-added solutions, driving our EBIT per kilo up in many of these segments that we serve. So strong performance, although, of course, impacted by COVID. If we then move into Chocolate & Confectionery Fats, a significant improvement in a year-over-year comparison compared to '19. We have an operating profit up by 30% and operating profit per kilo up by 21%. And why is this? I mentioned in the beginning, we had last year, significant costs due to our supply chain challenges. Now that has been implemented. We have good efficiency. We have good capacity. We have good yielding kernels. So our supply chain is up to speed and works well.And with that, our cost base is lower. On top of that, we have had increased volumes. Basically, in all the segments within Chocolate & Confectionery fats ingredients, it's been a positive move in a year-over-year comparison. So with a lower cost base, a higher volume and a continued drive for high value-added solutions with a better margin and mix. That really pushes the operating profit up as well as the operating profit per kilo.With that, we move into Page 10 and a few comments on Technical Products & Feed. This is another strong quarter for Technical Products & Feed. We have mentioned before, call it, we have established ourselves on a new level. And I think if you look at this comparison from Q4 '16 and forward, you could see that move up and, call it, we have stabilized ourselves and a higher profit contribution level in this business area, specifically to this quarter and the strong improvement compared to '19, we have a very good performance and our crushing operations worked really smoothly. And we've also had good demand within our feed business. So that -- those are the 2 main reasons for the nice year-over-year improvement in operating products.Right. With those comments on our business areas. It's time for some more financial details. And with that, I hand it over to you, Fredrik.

F
Fredrik Nilsson

Thank you, Johan. Let's move to Page 11. We have a really strong operational cash flow in the quarter. Operating cash flow, including changes in working capital amounted to SEK 1.2 billion in the quarter. Cash flow for working capital, plus SEK 521 million in the quarter, that was a strong positive cash flow from accounts receivables and accounts payable in the quarter. This was partly offset by negative cash flow from inventory due to the increased raw material prices.Reported tax cost corresponds to an average tax rate of 24% in the quarter. We have cash flow from investments amounted to SEK 592 million in the quarter, of which SEK 359 million was related to acquisitions. Our capital expenditures was mainly related to regular maintenance investments and capacity increases. This implies the free cash flow of SEK 616 million in the quarter, a very strong performance. I would also like to remind you about the expected cash flow impact from current raw material prices.Raw material prices have soared since June 2020, based on the duration of our contract portfolio, there is a timeline of 6 to 9 months until we will see the cash flow effect from the price volatility. This implies that there will be a material negative impact on working capital during the first half of 2021. However, in the forward curves for the raw material price indicates decline in prices. And if this materializes, it will have a positive effect on the cash flow during the latter part of 2021.Let's move to Page 12. Return on capital employed calculated on 12 months basis increased sequentially to 14.3%. And in the quarter, the return on capital employed was 15.3%. The good sequential improvement with growth in both operating profit and reduced working capital was, of course, huge support to the return on capital employed development. Moving to Page 13. AAK has a really strong balance sheet. We have an equity asset ratio of 44% and net EPS in the quarter at SEK 2.7 billion, and we have a net debt divided by the EBITDA of SEK 0.94, which is a record low for the group.Let's move to Page 14. Almost 60% of the loans have a duration of more than 12 months, which is, of course, is a strength in a volatile world. At the end of December, the group has total credit facilities of SEK 8.3 billion, whereof SEK 7.2 billion is committed credit facilities.Let's move to Page 15. In the quarter, we have experienced a negative currency translation impact of SEK 62 million, SEK 23 million linked to Food ingredients, SEK 39 million linked to Chocolate and Confectionery Fats. And based on the spots rates, end of December, we should expect a material negative translation impact in the first quarter 2021 as well. As this is my last quarter we report with AAK, I would like to take the opportunity to thank you all for the very good cooperation during many years. It has been 14 fantastic years with AAK. I'm really happy and proud what we as a team have achieved when I closed my AAK book. I know the company is in safe hands for continue the growth journey. I just wish the AAK team the best success in the future. Thank you, Johan.

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

And thank you, Fredrik, and you know that we also wish you all the best in your new opportunities, and we thank you for that again. So with those comments, thank you, Fredrik, on the financial details.We will now move into the next page, and I will present our new purpose. For those of you who are with us on the Capital Market Day, you know that we launched our new purpose for AAK, Making Better Happen. This is a purpose that has been developed in an inclusive process together with our leadership team, our Board of Directors but as well as with our global team of colleagues, a fantastic input, an inclusive process that led to a purpose that we now work under, Making Better Happen, a purpose that really drives us, speaks to the heart and the DNA of AAK and who we are. We are making better solutions for our customers to happen. We are focused on making better shareholder return happen and so forth. And you'll see more about this as we go forward.On the next page, one area where this is a very good link with regards to making better happen is, of course, sustainability as a whole. The ESG focus of us and stakeholders around the world. At AAK, we are making better happen from plant to brand in the full supply chain where we operate. And a few comments on how we focus and how we have stepped up also with specific initiatives during quarter 4 and commitments on Page 18.Our commitment is about making better happen from plant to brand. It's to make an ESG impact that is facilitated through key targets and ambition set by us as a company. We have, in quarter 4, also communicated that we are signing up to science-based targets, scope 1, 2 and 3. We are stepping up our sustainability efforts and investments into the raw material supply chains, our full supply chain, so communicating and committing to 100% verified deforestation, free palm and soy supply chain by 2025 as well as 100% stability to plantation by 2025.Also better operations internally, our resource utilization with regards to energy, water consumption, et cetera. Setting targets and really investing and delivering on those as well as enabling better solutions to a better world for our customers and other stakeholders. We and AAK, we are a partner, and we can be a strategic partner to really move this forward. We need to work together with our customers, governments around the world, our suppliers and, of course, AAK as a whole. With those comments, I'd also like to introduce [ Patrick Windquist ] to you. He will be your Investor Relations contact person going forward. So here, you have the phone number and the e-mail that you can use now when Fredrik is leaving. So please note that down, and we are happy to continue to interact with you going forward but through the coordination of Patrick. With that, we move to the last page of this presentation and a few concluding remarks from myself. In the immediate short to midterm, of course, the uncertainty is still high. COVID-19 is still present. We know that, you know that, I think it's worth mentioning again. The good thing is in AAK, we have shown in 2020, the resilience of the business. We have adapted, we have a strong platform. We have a very strong organization. What happens in the near future, we will see, but we have the ability to adapt, and we will push AAK forward.With our offering of plant-based, healthy, high value-adding oils and fats solutions, based on our customer co-development approach, that is what we will continue to deliver. In spite of that short to midterm uncertainty, we see no reason to adjust our view on the strong favorable underlying trends in the markets that we serve. To name a few, health and nutrition, sustainability. We do remain prudently optimistic about the future, and we are fully committed to Making Better Happen throughout the supply chains where we operate. Thank you so much.All right. Those were the comments to our quarter 4 presentation, and we are happy to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Alexander Jones from Bank of America.

A
Alexander Jones
Analyst

Three questions, if I may. The first one is on the chocolate profitability improvement. You talked about the year-on-year comparison. Could you just give us some idea sequentially compared to quarter 3, whether that was a mix benefit, whether it was still some of those supply chain improvements coming through that haven't suddenly happened in the third quarter or something else? And I guess that tell us about the sustainability of that improvement going into 2021.The second question is on raw material prices. You talked helpfully about the working capital impact of higher raw material prices. Could you give us an idea of sort of the negotiations with customers, and whether you are continuing to be able to pass-through those higher raw material prices fully or any pressure from that margin side?And then finally, with the very strong balance sheet that you highlighted, could you talk a little bit about the M&A pipeline and then how that's developing, and whether you're seeing higher/lower competition for assets than you were? And what's maybe the bottleneck in that?

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

Starting with the CCF profitability, if I understood it correctly, more the sequential. So in a sequential perspective, we saw a continued sequential improvement into the quarter, and then a bit slower pace towards the end of the quarter. And so it's been a good month. It's been good volumes. Coming in, as I said before, in a year-over-year comparison, we need to remember the significant cost we had before and the lower cost we have now. So we have a better operating cost at the moment than we had in '19, and we had add on costs in '19 and so forth. But also, as you saw with volume coming up and also continued growth in our high-end segments within CCF, that in total became a good quarter for CCF.One should keep in mind the uncertainty around the Christmas, how was the real Christmas sales for our end customers. And how is the Easter going to be this year? So there is uncertainty there, but we are confident in the more mid to long term, and we have shown the strength of the company. But I think it's worth repeating that there are uncertainty around us also in Chocolate and Confectionery. And then if I understood, the sub-question there was about sustainability improvements, specifically to CCF, if that's what you meant, Alexander. We do develop still improve significantly in West Africa, resourcing of shea kernels, where we engage more than 300,000 women in our Kolo Nafaso program, micro financing, micro loans, so opening up bank accounts, helping to really improve the livelihoods of the families and women in West Africa. That is one track where we continue to invest as well as we are stepping up in our palm oil supply chain and setting new targets and have invested also in significant improvements in how we trace and how we develop our suppliers and their suppliers, I should say.Then with regards to raw material impact and the pass on again, pass on is something that I prefer not to use because it's always a customer-supplier relationship. But yes, there is, in our industry, a deep understanding of the raw material dynamics. And with that, it's accepted and something we need to continue to accept and do adjust prices based on input raw materials, and that works well. With significant dynamics like we have now, it is, of course -- there is a bit of more risk uncertainty around that when you have spikes in curves or deep reductions in curves. So we're on the ball. It's something that we focus a lot on, and we're confident that we have a good model. But of course, it requires a tight dialogue with our customers and that we, as a team, are on that ball with regards to both hedging the impact as well as having those dialogues and adjustments with customers.So finally, then on the M&A pipe, I don't think it's very difficult to judge whether that -- whether we see more competition or not. The one thing that we do experience is that it's somewhat easier to get in contact. The first contact, some of the relationship building is, to some extent, ease in the situation we have now with leaders, executive leadership and owners being a bit more accessible with the time we have and with home office working et cetera.But at the same time, it's a bit more difficult to come far and get into a proper due diligence, especially when it comes to the hardware that you want to look at and do a bit of touch and feel. So let's see where that moves us. It's a bit of good and bad, and we learn as we go.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Heidi Vesterinen from Exane BNP Paribas.

H
Heidi Maria Vesterinen
Financial Analyst

So I'll start with a few questions on CCF. You talked about competitive pressure. Can you clarify if you already saw this in Q4? Or has this become more prominent as you moved into Q1? And I assume that here, you mean price pressure. So going back to the earlier question, how are you going to manage that together with the spike in raw material costs? Because you have a pass-through model, yet there's pressure? So that's the first question.

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

Thank you, Heidi. Yes, we have experienced a bit more competitive pressure. We're not the only 1 in the market. And with lower volumes in the Easter and access to raw materials and so forth, we have seen a bit more competitive pressure. And with that also, of course, it's a market out there. So that becomes a bit of a price pressure as well. We're still operating well. We still see this is a good business and so forth, but I think just be a bit cautious on that side. And then we have that uncertainty about the Easter sales and so forth. But in a more mid- to long-term perspective, we're very confident in the growth of Chocolate & Confectionery and our plant-based also fat solutions into that segment. So yes, it's there. Did we see something in Q4? Yes, we did, but we are guiding a bit here or explaining is that it's more linked to contracts we have been closing in Q4 and forward rather than impact in Q4, I would say.

H
Heidi Maria Vesterinen
Financial Analyst

And then also you alluded to uncertainty on the volume side. The 7%, I have to say, was very impressive in Q4, but yes. I mean it's very impressive in the context of the market, right, with chocolate companies having a very cautious outlook. So I mean are you seeing any destocking? Or do you expect that, especially with the lockdowns and who knows, we might be even locked down in the Easter again. And we know what the chocolate companies went through last year. So do you see destocking or do you expect it?

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

I think it's linked to the answer basically on my first -- on your first question, when we say the uncertainty is high, it's basically on what is the real demand. And as long as the real demand is there, we -- destocking and stocking will catch up. But -- so I think it's -- there might be destocking if the demand by end consumers are lower. If it's still strong, we will see less of that. So I think it's too early to say whether it is there or not. But that is a consequence, I would say, rather, on that overall uncertainty.And as you said, let's see what Easter is this year. What we have seen, which is promising is that our customers, and to some extent, their customers also find new ways to get online shopping of chocolate going, things we bought before on an airport or when working in a grocery store is today a bit more online. So there's been some good movement. We don't control that, but I'm just restating that. A bit of uncertainty on the volumes. And with that, it can be destocking and stocking between quarters as a consequence of a ripple effect.

H
Heidi Maria Vesterinen
Financial Analyst

And then the final question on the cost-cutting program. Could you tell us how much of the targeted amount you have achieved so far in full year '20, please.

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

Thank you. So we had good progress in those activities that we launched and communicated after Q2. And we are at approximately implemented savings of 50% of that program. And more to come during the first half of this year to be fully implemented to the second half of this year.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line Kenneth Toll from Carnegie.

K
Kenneth Toll Johansson
Financial Analyst

Yes. So a couple of small questions. On the Technical Products & Feed, your results were very good, and you talked a little bit about it. But would you say that it was more unusually strong in the fourth quarter? Or do you think the higher level is more sustainable?

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

I think if you look in the presentation, I think we can use that as one. Was it a strong quarter? Yes. When I say we have established ourselves on a higher level, if you look at more as an average from, let's say, quarter 3 and forward or quarter 4 '18 and forward, what I meant, then you see a bit of a higher level of performance. Then this quarter is the all-time high quarter. So was it exceptionally good? Yes. But are we still on a higher level as such? Yes.

K
Kenneth Toll Johansson
Financial Analyst

Okay. And then also one thing I was thinking about, you talked about Plant-based food. In last year, there was a lot of hype around this segment of the market, a lot of newspaper articles and IPOs and things. And in society, the hype has proved a little bit. When you see your order intake and the activities you have on the Plant-based Food side, do you see also that growth rates and activities were higher last year, and they are lower now? Or would it be a similar level? Or how would you describe it?

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

Yes. I will, I think. Thank you for the question. I think this is an area like, I would say, also ESG, to some extent, let's separate the reality a bit from hypes and potential bubbles. We do believe that the reality is there, Plant-based Food. We -- the impact, the impact that it has for eating more Plant-based Food ingredients and solutions versus animal-based. It has a great impact from a sustainability point of view. And that has been a driver for that industry, I think, as a whole. And then you saw last year, yes, there was a hype, there were some companies that drove a bit of that communication hype. But the underlying demand is there. The underlying trend is there. We feel it. We work with it day-by-day. And in our interaction with different stakeholders, investors as well as our customers and new customers, I do believe, and personally, I am 100% believer of us as a population of the world, eating more Plant-based Food derived from plant-based raw materials in the future because of that significant positive impact it has compared to other food in a sustainability perspective. And there is a great opportunity to make them more healthier, tastier, better structure. So I think it's very natural. And then I leave any kind of hype and bubble to everyone else to think about and thought out. We focus on the deliveries to food ingredient to customers that produce the food that we eat. So take away the hype and look at it in a 10-year perspective, I am sure that there will be a significant volume to come in the sector, although we are starting from a small level.

K
Kenneth Toll Johansson
Financial Analyst

Great. And then the final one on this plant expansion you're doing in China on infant nutrition. When will this be ready? And do you have a capacity shortage now so that you will be able to serve more customers when this plant is ready? And what will be the earnings effect in the short-term when the plant is up and running with this new capacity?

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

Yes. So we are very close to be able to come back and communicate. I hope that we are up and running. We are actually up and running. So the plant is there, the plant is built. We are waiting for final permissions and audits by customers and so forth, to get all the things checked in the box to be able to operate themselves. But the plant has been built. The plant has been tested. So we are really in the final stage of that project, which is really good.And then in terms of capacity constraints. At the moment, no. We were able to serve our customers. So it's not like we are constrained. But as we get this one open, it will open a few more doors, and we are then able to continue our growth curve. But it's quite, I would say, in balance with the volume we need at the moment. But this now opens up the door and gives us the possibility to continue to grow.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We have a question from the line of Alex Sloane from Barclays.

A
Alexander Morrow Sloane
Research Analyst

Yes, a couple of questions from me, if that's okay. Just the first one, actually, just continuing on your infant formula solutions, which are, obviously, one of the sort of higher-margin pieces you have in food ingredients. I wonder if you could maybe talk about any impact you're seeing or you expect from slowing birth rates in China, but also kind of more broadly globally that some multinational customers have been alluding to. Is that sort of something you're calling out for 2021 or is the underlying momentum you have there based on kind of premiumization enough to kind of offset that and enable continued growth?And then just secondly, just on the working capital outlook. Thanks for the color there in terms of the first half and potential second half phasing based on the forward curves. So I wonder, based on kind of your base case assumptions today, if you could give any kind of ballpark guidance on what you think the kind of full year impact on working capital and free cash flow might be from the -- where raw materials sit today? That would be helpful.

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

Thank you. So starting on infant formula and the demand there. So if you have it all correctly laid out. So of course, the birth rate, I mean, the babies are really our end consumers for the ingredients that we supply, that is clear. So we are -- yes, the birth rates will impact the underlying demand in this market. And with that, we are so significant in this market. So that will impact AAK as well, and it has actually. We have seen lower birth rates and lower total volume in the market a bit even during last year. What we have seen, and you mentioned that is a premiumization, meaning higher demand, and especially in China, for high value-added solutions like organic infant formula, like the high-end solutions where we mimic the mother's milk even further and so forth. Those kind of solutions have had a good demand during the year.And that has helped drive good performance in this segment for us and will continue to be a focus of ours. That is our -- that is where we operate, that is where we focus. So -- and that will continue going forward. But let's see it. So you have a negative force and a positive force. And the balance of that is a bit, of course, dependent on how much will birth rate slow down? When will that turn around and pick up again? And how much will premiumization offset that? It certainly is -- we certainly have those dynamics at the moment.All right. And then with regards to the working capital outlook, I think the best guidance is basically what Fredrik mentioned, and I'll let Fredrik come in and comment on that. So it's difficult to get a ballpark number guidance since we see a spike now. We know what happens on a different position on that curve. So if prices continues to be very high, that has an impact. If they go down fast, that has an impact. So the impact, we know, but the timing of that impact then has a 6 month delay. So with that, depending on when prices start coming down again, you will push that either reduction in working capital or increase in working capital forward.

F
Fredrik Nilsson

I can just put some color on it. And what we have guided on in the past is that a swing in raw material prices of 10% will give a cash flow impact of around SEK 350 million. And now we are talking about plus 30%, 40% up here during -- at least during the autumn. So then you can do the math by yourself. And then the question is, of course, how much will then come back during the second half.

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

So in essence, we're -- you will have that coming in as a negative impact now, building working capital. But as soon as the curve goes down again, we do believe they will, but we don't know when. If they don't, we'll stay on that level. But if they do go down, there is another 6 month delay, and then we'll see the positive impact on working capital, and that is how it will play out.

A
Alexander Morrow Sloane
Research Analyst

That's very helpful. If I could just maybe squeeze one more in as well. I mean, obviously, it's been a few months since your Capital Markets Day, and you laid out kind of ambitious sustainability targets for the midterm, particularly on deforestation free certified palm oil. I wonder if you could sort of talk about since that announcement, what the reception's been like from customers. And obviously, getting to those targets is going to require incremental investment and, I guess, higher cost to achieve the certification. Is there -- based on kind of the initial reception and your kind of expectations, is there the expectation that the customers will be able to kind of pay more for this sustainable product? Or is this kind of an incremental cost that you might need to bear?

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

Yes. Thank you. So I think the dynamic is there. There are certainly customers that are willing to pay that drive harder, faster, forward together with us and others and there are others who don't. And there are also, let's keep in mind, our global world as well with some countries and regions, it's more focused on affordability and getting out of poverty and getting food on the table. And there, this -- the ESG focus is not as high and also the willingness and even capability to pay is less, but those things need to shift a bit over time. We see good progress internally. We have invested, yes, it's going to be a bit more add on cost, but we also see that we can get that through. And we need to work together with customers and our suppliers, but also governments. I am really hoping that we, in the food industry, can get to a better connected world and supply chain with regards to incentives and certification demands, et cetera, so that we help drive this faster. But we will certainly take our steps, and we are investing in better monitoring. We are working with our suppliers, reducing some of them, working to improve some of them. And we have seen progress during 2020, and we will accelerate that into 2021.So quite confident that we are Making Better Happen, coming back to our purpose. And then we'll take steps forward, 2 steps forward one step back in some occasions, but really, this is a high priority for the company. And I'm sure it will play out well, given time.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Please go ahead, speakers.

J
Johan Westman
President & CEO

Thank you very much. Thank you to everyone that listen in, to Fredrik for your strong contributions. And I'm looking forward to meet you all again soon. Thank you for listening into our earnings call.