China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd stock under the Base Case scenario is 82.25 CNY. Compared to the current market price of 67.4 CNY, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd is Undervalued by 18%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd
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China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (CTG Duty Free) stands at the forefront of one of the world's most dynamic retail sectors, positioned as a premier player in the travel retail market. Established out of a unique merger of the China National Travel Service Group Corporation and various duty-free operations, the company has carved a niche as the largest duty-free retailer in China. With a robust portfolio that includes stunning shops in key international airports and thriving locations across major cities, CTG Duty Free captures the rapidly growing demand for luxury goods among both domestic and international travelers. Its recent strategic expansions, including collaborations with high-...
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (CTG Duty Free) stands at the forefront of one of the world's most dynamic retail sectors, positioned as a premier player in the travel retail market. Established out of a unique merger of the China National Travel Service Group Corporation and various duty-free operations, the company has carved a niche as the largest duty-free retailer in China. With a robust portfolio that includes stunning shops in key international airports and thriving locations across major cities, CTG Duty Free captures the rapidly growing demand for luxury goods among both domestic and international travelers. Its recent strategic expansions, including collaborations with high-end brands and a push into digital sales platforms, signal a forward-thinking approach in an evolving marketplace ripe with opportunity.
Investors are increasingly drawn to CTG Duty Free due to its impressive revenue growth driven by China’s burgeoning middle class and the increasing popularity of travel among Chinese citizens. The company has shown remarkable resilience, especially in navigating the challenges posed by the pandemic and changing consumer behaviors. With government policies also favoring the development of the domestic tourism sector, CTG Duty Free is poised to benefit significantly. As a reliable retail player in an industry that thrives on luxury consumption, CTG Duty Free not only embodies growth potential but also provides diversification benefits for investors looking to tap into the lucrative Chinese consumer market. With a management team that emphasizes sustainable growth and market adaptation, CTG Duty Free offers a compelling proposition for those seeking long-term gains in the travel retail space.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Ltd. (CTG Duty Free) is a leading player in the duty-free retail industry in China, primarily focusing on the tourism and travel sectors. The core business segments of the company include:
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Duty-Free Retail: This segment comprises the operation of duty-free shops and stores, primarily located in airports, seaports, and other tourist destinations. This includes the sale of a wide range of products, including cosmetics, perfumes, tobacco, alcohol, luxury goods, and other consumer products that cater to both domestic and international travelers.
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Tourism Services: CTG Duty Free is involved in various tourism-related services, such as travel agency operations, tour planning, and related services that enhance the travel experience for customers. This segment focuses on providing comprehensive travel solutions and enhancing the overall tourism experience for visitors to China.
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Brand and Product Development: The company works on establishing and promoting various brands, particularly in the luxury and premium segments. This includes partnerships with global brands to offer exclusive products that attract high-end consumers.
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E-commerce and Online Sales: With the rise of digital shopping, CTG Duty Free has ventured into the online retail space, allowing consumers to shop for duty-free products through digital platforms. This segment is increasingly significant, especially as consumer preferences shift towards convenience and online purchasing options.
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Supply Chain Management: Efficient supply chain management is crucial for the duty-free business, and CTG Duty Free engages in the procurement, distribution, and management of inventory for its various retail outlets. This segment ensures that the company can meet customer demand effectively while managing costs.
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International Expansion: As the company grows, it explores opportunities beyond China, looking to expand its footprint in international markets, leveraging its expertise in the duty-free sector to capture demand from travelers worldwide.
CTG Duty Free’s strategic focus on these core segments enables it to capitalize on the growing tourism market in China and the wider duty-free industry. The company aims to provide high-quality products and services, enhancing the travel experience while driving business growth.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (CTG Duty Free) holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the duty-free retail sector, particularly in the context of the Asian market. Here are some key advantages:
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Government Support and Strategic Positioning: As a state-owned enterprise, CTG Duty Free benefits from strong government backing and favorable policies that support tourism and retail sectors. This position allows the company to navigate regulatory environments more smoothly and gain access to prime retail locations.
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Extensive Network and Scale: CTG Duty Free operates a vast network of duty-free shops, particularly in airports and tourist destinations across China and other regions. This extensive presence enhances brand recognition and provides economies of scale that smaller competitors may struggle to achieve.
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Exclusive Partnerships: The company has established exclusive partnerships with luxury brands, providing unique product offerings that attract high-spending tourists and affluent consumers. This exclusivity can create strong customer loyalty and a differentiation from competitors.
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Focus on E-commerce and Omnichannel Retailing: CTG Duty Free has invested significantly in digital transformation and e-commerce, catering to the growing trend of online shopping among consumers. This omnichannel approach enhances customer convenience and drives sales both online and in-store.
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Diverse Product Offerings: The company offers a wide range of products, including cosmetics, liquor, tobacco, and luxury goods, appealing to various consumer segments. This diversity mitigates risks and enables cross-selling opportunities.
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Cultural and Tourism Expertise: CTG Duty Free's understanding of Chinese tourism dynamics allows it to tailor its offerings to meet the unique preferences of both domestic and international travelers. This expertise enables the company to capture value more effectively than competitors without such specialized knowledge.
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Concentration on Customer Experience: The company prioritizes the customer shopping experience through store layout, product displays, and customer service. High-quality experiences can lead to increased customer satisfaction and repeat business.
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Adapting to Market Trends: CTG Duty Free is agile in adapting to changing market trends, such as the rise of health and wellness products or shifts in consumer behavior. This adaptability ensures the company remains relevant amid evolving consumer preferences.
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Financial Strength: Being one of the largest duty-free operators in China, CTG Duty Free has significant financial resources for investment in marketing, technology, and expansion, positioning it well to outmaneuver smaller competitors.
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Tourism Recovery Leverage: Following the pandemic, as global tourism rebounds, CTG Duty Free is strategically positioned to leverage the recovery of Chinese outbound tourism, which is crucial for driving higher sales volumes.
These competitive advantages enable CTG Duty Free to maintain a strong market position and effectively compete with global and local rivals in the duty-free retail sector.
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (CTG Duty Free) operates in a dynamic environment influenced by various risks and challenges. Here are some of the key risks and challenges the company may face in the near future:
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Regulatory Risks: Changes in government regulations regarding duty-free sales, customs policies, and taxation can significantly impact operations. China’s policies toward foreign brands and consumption can also affect the duty-free sector.
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Economic Slowdown: Any economic downturn, whether in China or globally, can reduce consumer spending on travel and luxury goods. The company is vulnerable to changes in disposable income and consumer confidence.
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Intense Competition: The duty-free market is competitive, with both domestic and international players. The rise of e-commerce and online duty-free shopping platforms may pose additional challenges.
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Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially between China and other major economies, can have adverse effects on tourism flows and consumer sentiment. Issues such as trade disputes may affect the availability of goods and pricing.
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Pandemic-Related Uncertainties: Although the world has largely moved past the most severe phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, lingering uncertainties regarding public health and future outbreaks can adversely impact travel and tourism.
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Changing Consumer Behavior: Shifts in consumer preferences, especially among younger individuals who prioritize experiences over goods, may affect product demand. Additionally, the growing importance of sustainability may lead consumers to favor brands that align with ethical practices.
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Technological Disruption: Advancements in technology, including digital payment solutions, augmented reality, and personalized shopping experiences, may require significant investment. Failing to keep pace with technology can result in a competitive disadvantage.
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Supply Chain Issues: Disruptions in the supply chain, whether due to natural disasters, political instability, or other factors, can impact the availability of stock and delivery times, ultimately affecting sales.
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Currency Fluctuations: As a company that deals in international markets, CTG Duty Free is exposed to currency risk that can affect profitability. Fluctuations in the renminbi against other currencies may impact pricing and competitiveness.
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Brand Management and Image: Maintaining brand reputation is crucial in duty-free and luxury markets. Any negative publicity or issues related to product quality can harm consumer trust and loyalty.
Addressing these risks will require strategic planning, robust risk management frameworks, and agility in adapting to changing market conditions. Continuous engagement with stakeholders and monitoring of industry trends will also play a pivotal role in navigating these challenges.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd
Current Assets | 55.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 33.2B |
Receivables | 2.1B |
Other Current Assets | 19.9B |
Non-Current Assets | 20.7B |
Long-Term Investments | 5B |
PP&E | 9.5B |
Intangibles | 2.9B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 3.3B |
Current Liabilities | 11.8B |
Accounts Payable | 5.3B |
Accrued Liabilities | 1.1B |
Short-Term Debt | 172.4m |
Other Current Liabilities | 5.2B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 10.2B |
Long-Term Debt | 4.5B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 5.8B |
Earnings Waterfall
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd
Revenue
|
59.7B
CNY
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-41.5B
CNY
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Gross Profit
|
18.2B
CNY
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Operating Expenses
|
-11.8B
CNY
|
Operating Income
|
6.5B
CNY
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Other Expenses
|
-1.1B
CNY
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Net Income
|
5.4B
CNY
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd
CNY | |
Free Cash Flow | CNY |
Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd's solvency score is 86/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd's solvency score is 86/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
Price Targets Summary
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd is 82.05 CNY with a low forecast of 60.6 CNY and a high forecast of 113.4 CNY.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp. Ltd. engages in the provision of travel services and the sale of merchandise. The company is headquartered in Beijing, Beijing and currently employs 14,720 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2009-10-15. The travel agency businesses mainly include the inbound tourism, outbound tourism, domestic tourism, visa services, business travel services, air services and e-commerce, among others. The duty free businesses mainly include the wholesaling and retailing of alcohols, tobaccos, perfumes and cosmetics. The firm is also engaged in commercial complex investment development.
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IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd stock under the Base Case scenario is 82.25 CNY.
Compared to the current market price of 67.4 CNY, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd is Undervalued by 18%.